futures advance, lisa abramowicz driving the s&p higher to plus 18. ds, greg peters, next. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, and lisa mateo. the new york city police department, secret service, and other authorities are on high alert as tomo shrum is said to be arraigned in lower manhattan. the former president's indictment has sparked a political firestorm as he makes a comeback bid for the white house. trump's lawyers say he will plead not guilty. it involves hush money payments made to a point start during the 2016 campaign. russia testing over the united -- the rotating presidency of the united nations screen cancel. the u.s. ambassador to the human because they matter an info. and said russia will use a chance to spread disinformation. in california, relentless storms have left behind one of the biggest snowpacks on record. officials say its water content measures 230% of normal. that is good news for california which has been suffering through a drought but there is a concern warmer weather could lead to flooding. wa

lisa abramowicz, israel simple. the demand is not there like demand optimists would suggest. lisa: there are two aspects of this. demand destruction, which we saw last summer when oil prices, high, and a declining economic backdrop. people will disagree over both features and you can see that in the notes this morning. tom: what we do in surveillance is try to get in front of a story in front of a story and give you some depth on it. we do it with $85 brent crude. west texas intermediate, $69 a barrel for a cup of coffee, now 80.30 two on american west texas intermediate. as we talked to ed morse about west and east of the suez we can look back. 40 years ago you had to read daniel yergin, "the prize," and you had to read robert lacey in his iconic one volume the kingdom on saudi arabia. all that has been done better by ellen wald in her definitive one volume "saudi, inc." she joins us on short notice this morning. you talk in your book about an arabian dog. is this opec-plus announcement a new arabian on? ellen: it v

with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.pital for audience worldwide, good morning, good morning to you. and a couple of minutes time, catch up at international monetary fund. the meetings continue down here in washington, d.c. slightly positive, just turning over in the last couple of minutes. we are negative on the s&p 500. a ton of fantastic guests lined up. tom: data front and center, filson will be on here in moments, but the answer here is a renewed importance. mickey understands this, i don't. there were adjustments made last week and we need to see those adjustments continue the trend to potentially higher joblessness. jonathan: there's is a difference between levels and change. the levels are still historically exceptional, exceptionally low. but that change, we could get that snapping back again. tom: the point is that the pros are looking not at the 225 level, they need to see stress 100,000 up. we are a long way from that. but it is the vector. jonathan: the fed likes to talk about the totality of the data, so le

this has been a superb first day in washington for us and lisa abramowicz joins us again tomorrow. se spring meetings which lisa is working on which is a bloomberg surveillance newsletter. it's a work in process and lisa is making it up as she goes with our editorial team so look for surveillance, the newsletter. we continue forward and coming up in the coming days, we will speak much more on these spring meetings of the international monetary fund and the world bank, front and center is the shocking call of economic slowdown for the imf over five years. we will wrap that into everything forward of the market data and that starts tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. with the inflation report. we will look at that front and center tomorrow. 10:30 a.m. today, the chief economist for the international monetary fund, look for that coming up. from washington all this week, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪ jonathan: live from washington dc, good morning. countdown to the open starts now. >> everything you ne

tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.onathan: good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures -6/10 of 1% on the s&p, wrapping up bank earnings for the major players on wall street letter this morning with morgan stanley and the next couple of hours. after the close yesterday, a focus on the regionals. let's focus on the regionals right now. west alliance in the premarket up by 16%. a little bit later after the close, then onto first republic this coming monday. we've got to talk about this. so far, so good for the regionals. never mind the big players. weston alliance yesterday reporting profit better-than-expected and posits recovering slowly. tom: moments ago, it was the same thing. leading with the positive information. you see it in the market this morning. we don't need to do the data check right now, but this is under the radar in the new zeitgeist.i agree with you , this is good news, calling news by the regional banks. jonathan: lisa, calling this one a significant win for the bank. lisa: the stabilization, the

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ld bank spring meeting for the next several days. equity futures and the s&p 500 positive. we continue to count you down to the inflation report in the united states. that 90 minutes away after cpi. the attention will then shift to bank earnings. 90 minutes away we have to deal with inflation. tom: p cpi data, the adults are focusing on core but there is more than that. i love david rosenberg's work of parsing the inflation analysis into 20, 30, 40 lines. even mike mckee cannot do that. but looking at the subsets of inflation i think will be a rich study. jonathan: in the distance, may 3, the fed's next big call. lisa: how do the even way these data points? the subjectivity of data. what does that mean when you can choose the data for the narrative you want to put out? tom: the cynicism. [laughter] lisa: it is just fact. jonathan: i happen to agree. lisa: thank you. you can color it the way you want perhaps, maybe we will get hot or cold, but there is a question of where is the traject

i'm jonathan ferro alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz.t holding on to a seven handle on first republic. that is the ugly news. here is the better than good. microsoft in the premarket close to 8%. the comments around ai encouraging for this. that is what they want to hear. but they are facing a important moment this morning. tom: i agree. is this a discrete camp where this is like the s and no crisis in the early 1980's. -- s and o crisis in the early 1980's. there has to be a massive focus on the fed reserve. jonathan: the conversation the last few weeks was that svb collapse was not a -- lisa: you do not see these pledges without a downturn. it is notable. you may get a longer-term defensive. good news and bad news it is the model. do you street -- do you treat it as risk off? tom: michael dart came yesterday. he said this beautifully. the media likes to do interest rate and financial market analysis. there is a point where it rolls over to the balance sheet analysis. are we to the point where asset dynamics may be more than the parlor

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. co.es from now -- counting down retail sales in 30 minutes from now. breathing some life into the bullish view on the equity market, equity futures this morning a touch negative off of the bank of -- back a bank earnings. bank earning so far, so good. jp morgan out of the gate getting to want to a great start. the stock up almost 6% in premarket. citi out moments ago. lisa: bidding pretty much -- beating across the board. one point $3 trillion of deposits. we will get the comparisons here year-over-year in a minute. you are in the extension of the gain in citi shares is once again the big banks are the port in the storm and were seeing them consolidate their power and that perhaps is the story of the morning. jonathan: if you look at these names would you have we had a banking crisis in the last month? tom: no. they're going to do everything they can to underplay this. they're going to pay homage to the banking crisis happening with smaller bank america. as a rule of thumb, with citigroup

you are not expecting that contraction. >> this is surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz live from new york, good morning. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene lisa braun of its. the appetizer before the main event. the main a course on friday. >> the main event is more important that was two weeks ago. all of a sudden, i would suggest, maybe friday, last job state, it's taken on a new importance, and one reason is that is the only jobs report from the meeting. this is the last real substantial look at the labor market. >> is about getting a decent understanding of what the condition of the economy was, going into this banking stress. that is worth pointing out. we have to ask, after the banking stress, how redundant is friday's number #>> that's what was being talked about. the idea that the survey was shrugging -- sugar and caffeine. it was saying you are seeing the labor market the way that once, but the sugar and caffeine doesn't capture what was already seen, so how much do we trade on data that we are looking

tom: jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. be looking at claims, i am looking at gdp and boy is there a difference on the state of the american economy. jonathan: i will be looking forward to amazon because big tech is getting it done this week. do you want some good news? they talked about first republic, it is not in the radar. some big understanding questions. tom: i am looking at the bloomberg terminal, the volume is way less than yesterday. if you are in institutional retail, what do you do at 9:31? is it off the radar? not for janet yellen it's not. lisa: the second there is a bad headline about regional banks the mood shifts. the strength is coming from tech giants, our performances from consumer facing companies. here we are at the precipice of something in the banking piece of that is what people are keying into to determine how to swing their moves. tom: five point 47, moments ago 5.42 on first republic. in edging down there. jonathan: this month has been amazing. a triple digit name and now it is 550. tom: i think t

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro.going to look a little something like this. after the close later we get first republic. terrible quarter. then later in the week google and microsoft. on wednesday meta, facebook. on thursday, amazon. next week apple. tom: i will steal from the beatles, eight days a week. maybe it is nine days a week to get to apple. each story is different. i am off the google story and i am fascinated how google may have stumbled in the last year strategically, how they frame the story forward? michael: consumer -- jonathan: consumer price tolerance has been a thing over the last two years out of the pandemic. getting another flavor of that this morning. lisa: i am looking at coca-cola. they beat expectations. their earnings-per-share was $.68 versus $.65. they beat on how much the revenue has increased. how much is this because they are able to choose prices, they will shrink the cans used to get eight ounces the dow you get four ounces and you pay the same. you get all of the tweaks and you have e

lisa abramowicz is in close conversation with mr. moll from a few days ago.ombshells now, i would doing economic slowdown. it's real simple, i'm going through the headlines, they are nuanced as you would expect. global growth slowing to 2% this year. he says the 2023 gp is expanding in america versus the previous 2.1%. on a more philosophical basis he states that the peace dividend of the 1990's has been used up. the extraordinary economic information from the two institutions we are receiving and we are getting lucky as we were previously booked. right now, stephen joins the chief economists there. just a perfect time to add you on. we can how do guesstimates of 3% gdp, but i'm calling that out of the textbooks and global recession. are we heading for global recession, even with buoyant china and india growth? >> we will discover the industrialized economies are suffering to a great degree. even though there is an opening up of china there will be some rebound, number one economic activity. the greater grip the chinese communist party has over the economy wi

this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. we start this morning with breaking news, president biden launching his reelection campaign. the president making his announcement for a second term. he said let's finish the job in the biden team releasing a highly produced three minute long video. here's a quote from the president this morning -- kriti: tom: elections are domestic but it alludes to one of the foundational parts of any president's term which is the surprise of foreign affairs. it means more freedom more or less freedom and it speaks to his foreign trade with the war in ukraine. jonathan: he wants to give americans a fair shot. the republican party wants to cut government spending and curb abortion rights and you get the feeling early on this will be a key feature of this campaign. lisa: it has been working well in terms of getting turnout and the galvanizing interest. i have to say how different this was

this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio alongside lisa abramowicz.g weekend. up 0.2% on the s&p 500. the doom and gloom and bears are not changing their futures. you heard from emmanuel from evercore. we need to catch up with recession. her argument and message are "do not look through the economic." -- economic weakness. lisa a: lean into the pain. i think this is going to be one of the most difficult moments where you see the money -- the monetary stimulus being pulled back. people talk about them intel it is declining -- about m2 and how it is declining. this is the conundrum we are going to get at 9:45 today. services keep coming in stronger than expected even though people pull back on how many desks they buy. jonathan: a busy week for financial earnings this week. next week, we hear from tech. microsoft on the 20 fit alongside google. amazon on april 27. may 4, apple. that is going to be a big focus because some names of had a tremendous year. lisa a: look cabo said misses will be severely punished. he heard from dan ives who said this will be

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: bad news just bad news. good morning for our audience worldwide this is bloomberg surveillance i'm jonathan ferro. tk will be back with us for payrolls tomorrow s&p down. noteworthy because it comes at a time when we see yields lower off the data. lisa: and some of the interest rate sensitive areas have underperformed on the heels of some softer than expected economic data i have to wonder how is it that people are waking up to the narrative that bad news is bad news. and the concerns about the banking industry. jonathan: this is before we get the banking industry here. that's the concern. the two i seems miss, miss, miss. how noteworthy is it for you? lisa: it's significant. more noteworthy people are not pricing much of a rate hike perhaps less than 50% chance into market. they are pricing and 100 basis points of rate cuts. that reaction is new. this is a concern about weakness before we get the true weakness and that is what i think is noteworthy. jonathan: the estimate s

paul: citigroup's global head of commodities research speaking with bloomberg's lisa abramowicz.y more to come. this is bloomberg ♪. paul: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. sources tell bloomberg a group of banks led by goldman sachs has launched a $3.8 billion deal to offload the riskiest debt from last year's citrix buyout. the bonds are being marketed ahead of heavily discounted price of $.78, bringing the deal to 14%. banks are poised for 1.3 billion dollars in losses on the leveraged buyout. a streaming service drew more than one point four 7 billion views in the opening weekend of the indian premier league. this is the highest ever opening weekend for the annual cricket tournament. the reliance industry hopes the result will vault it to the top level of global streaming services. mcdonald's is reportedly temporarily closing u.s. offices this week while he prepares for corporate layoffs. according to the wall street journal, the company told u.s. employees and some international staff to work from home through wednesday to deliver layoff decisions virtual

lisa abramowicz has a great chart, not on the edge of 2007, 2008, 2009, people aren't in this market. they have the bramo doubt. jonathan: i have one of the millions who follow bramo on twitter. this hour, bank of america earnings. and then we will catch up with james zelter . this is bloomberg. lisa: i'm lisa mateo. japan's rapid support marrow terry group -- paramilitary group fighting has agreed to a 24 hour humanitarian truce as fighting continues in that capital with the most intense violence around the airport headquarters. the envoy said at least 185 people have been killed. china's economy grew by 4.5% in the first quarter from a year, the fastest pace in a year. a rebound in consumer spending after covid zero and a ramp up in infrastructure investment helped gdp come investor than the forecast by economists. the latest caters for march show a mixed picture with industrial activity being subdued. $4.4 billion from credit suisse's european and u.s. funds after the ubs take over. the data for morningstar only includes funds that include daily numbers and doesn't include all of c

tom: you look at the lisa abramowicz newsletter. jonathan: is the on view has some real momentum. only thing in this program that has given our performance this morning. 11:00 a.m. eastern, michael barr's report on the collapse of svb. that will be a key one. equity features negative 0.4%. it from new york, this is bloomberg. lisa: with news from around the world, with the first word i'm lisa mateo. speaker kevin mccarthy putting pressure on president biden and democrats to embrace his plan that was passed on the house floor to avoid a debt limit crisis. in an interview with bloomberg tv, he said the president is putting the economy at risk by voiding -- by avoiding negotiation. in china, the communist party bureau said the economic recovery needs continued fiscal and monetary support and also warned that domestic demand is insufficient. . prime minister rishi sunak about stress government will scrap laws from in the eu. that could arrange brexit supporters and they will review and get rid of the laws by the end of the year and the government suggest it will scrap just a fraction

this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.peak through today into the quiet period. bank earnings earlier this morning. we need to to those still to come, at 10:15 you will hear from the treasury secretary janet yellen. she has things to say about china and national security. this is what she has to say, national security is of paramount importance we will not compromise on these concerns. even when they force trade-offs with our economic interests. the code of the morning goes to the secretary treasury. lisa: this will pressure this fragmentation, we talk about the soup and the exhaustion of the nursery rhyme of fed names. we don't know the paradigm we are entering into if we have these geopolitical fissures. jonathan: they don't know either. they are saying one more hike and then hold. look at the range for next year and the fed forecast? the fed range is wide. lisa: they don't know, we don't know. looking at the bank earnings we thought we would get a clearer read. regional banks deposits are costing more, net interest marg

. >> this is a special edition a bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowiczad payroll reports 30 minutes away. live from new york city, good morning for our audience this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene. i'm jonathan ferro joined together by mohamed el-erian in the studio in new york city, joining into the jobs report, features take a leg lower, i would not read too much into it. we are down .2% on the s&p and the estimate is 200 30,000, the meat of the estimate of bloomberg survey. we had upside surprise after upside surprise for the best part of 12 months with the jobs report. does that change today? tom: is this the day it tips? i would link it with the domestic economy are international economy as we had krista lena yesterday and dr. al arian today and how america and this jobs report folds into a pretty grim imf global growth. jonathan: the rules of combat, you cannot mention qps. are we on the same page? tom: i've been briefed on this. mohammed travels with an entourage of i think seven people and one of them whispered in m