ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz on assignment this morning. i am on assignment with katie greifeld sitting in for lisette. we will try to survive the next three hours with. quarter is where you are. sidebar, apple and tim cook. apple approaches $3 trillion. dan ives has his eyes on $4 trillion. katie: you are getting headlines about apple stepping up with for antitrust charges. the state is up to antitrust charges of streaming music such as modified. we are approaching big benches but we know apple is fighting this. tom: the real answer is in the securities market. we are up again in the data security market. yes, we will decrypt crypto with katie greifeld. bob just emailed. bob from the hampton says, "do crypto." you will later. right now, we have to do the story of the equities market. what do we know about the semiconductor market yesterday that lisa was so focused on? katie: it is a hot topic on a geo scale. seems like the u.s. is trying to protect nvidia's market share. w

the fed to size with tom keene and lisa abramowicz is next -- the fed decides with tom keene and lisa you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh i don't want to outlive our money. i keep eating all these chia seeds. i could live to be 100. we work with empower, even if we do live to 100 we don't have to worry. eh, not worried. take control of your financial future to empower what's next. hi, i'm lauren, i lost 67 pounds in 12 months on golo. take control of your financial future golo and the release has been phenomenal in my life. it's all natural. it's not something that gives you the jitters. it makes you go through your days with energy, and you're not tired anymore, and your anxiety, everything is gone. it's definitely worth trying. it is an amazing product.

. >> this is tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. it is the friday before the beginning of the summer. we welcome all of you to the end of q2. what a first half it has been. kathy greifeld is with a spread katie greifeld. we have a full friday ahead of you. she is front and center. let's get the promotion out. top of the show, stay tuned for the real yield, because that is the only thing that matters on this friday morning. we are breaking out new inflation expectation highs. >> if we look at the five year, we are above two percent on the real yield you look at the two-year, we are on 3% watch. i'm glad you told me to look at the real yield because you are right. they are absolutely rocketing higher. things up a solid 10 basis points. blowing up to 1.68, and that takes us back to yesterday. i thought the team did great about the shock of the essay, framing up this coming quarter. we need to look for a higher yield regime. >> it was almost immediately vindicated because we have an essay a

lisa abramowicz and tom keene here. the red sox will possibly win a game before july 1. 50-50 chance. bramo is writing the bloomberg surveillance newsletter. it is out. it is in english. how long does it take you to write it? lisa: piece by piece and we do it as the show goes on and we have a fantastic team. tom: the intern stepped up. lisa: we have a fabulous team. tom: -- lisa: it highlights the whipsaw we have felt. central banks out, central banks in, people are excited, people are sad. tom: we are making jokes about it but it is a reaffirmation of the session. lisa: we just had the worst weekly loss of global stocks going back three months in the long streak of losses in european equities going back to december. tom: the vix was a 12 handle, we are back to 13.6. let's go through the yield space. 4.75% -- six basis points on the 10 year. the vanilla spread, 2-10 spread is enough to give our next test -- our next guest heart palpitations. we will let him deal with that with a glass of tang. lisa will talk to us. she

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene and lisa getting ready for a 9:00 soirÉe with importantthe 10:00 hour, bloomberg and alix steel and guy johnson will speak to general ben hodges retired of the u.s. army and we are looking forward to that conversation. the tape is better, that's what you need to know, off the shock of the international events of the weekend. i don't want to overdo it but sunday out of asia into our morning and it has improved. there is no other way to state that. i've got fractional improvement on the screen but the nasdaq 100 is down. spx is zero essentially. that's very important. just as important is the two year yield improves a little bit but what has not improved his curve in version. i've got 103 basis points spread and that is really something. that's the source of study for our next guest. i got a huge response the last time this chief economist was on. we will revisit today and focus on some of the certitudes out there and the lack of patience over watching recession indicators. michael darda, thank you for joining us and we see the shocking curv

godaddy.com lisa: from new york city to our viewers world i'd i move -- viewers worldwide, i'm lisa abramowiczro. >> this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ ♪ lisa: coming up, fed chair jay powell joining his global counterparts for a panel in portugal. the u.s. is said to be weighing new

inflation and inflation drives central banks. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, lisa abramowiczthan ferro. lisa: all eyes on big tech as it continues to lead. welcome back, this is bloomberg surveillance on television and radio. tom and john are off today but i am please to say we have sarah hunt, chief market strategist at alpine, sachs and woods. we are seeing the biggest gain going back to the march concerns of what happened with the banking sector. so good to see you. it's been quite a week. is this a week of clarity or more model? >> i think it's a week of more muddle. a lot of people called for a pause in the data came in and it was iffy in terms of keeping going so i can see where applause came in. you look at underlying conditions and they are not that tight. the fed says we will tighten and the reason you are seeing conditions not so tight is if you look at the fed balance sheet and you look at the chart and run it against the s&p and attracts well and the s&p is ahead of that but the fed balance sheet had been rising. that means there is still a lot of liquidity and th

this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. for equity market is slightly negative on the s&p 500 after closing yesterday more than 20% higher from the october low. some may say we are back in able market. tom: and it feels like it. you saw it on the opening montage with ed yardeni. the bottom line is the debate is raging into this june weekend. jonathan: big time. michael harden of bank of america says we have gone from recession feared to goldilocks green. it is clear that when you strip out the base seven, the s&p year to date is down 1%. that is the quote this morning from michael hartnett. lisa a: this you mean this is fragile or just beginning. there is an opinion of whether this is a home market, whether it feels like one or does not. it is basically seven stocks pulling everything along. we actually saw broadening out yesterday. is that something that could continue or the end day? tom: it is a friday in june. the vix is at 13.76. why do you feel so miserable? jonathan: my favorite quote this morning. have you all becom

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. i am jonathan ferro.hts to lagarde you have been grounded due to low flight visibility. saw some of this yesterday. the faa slowing some traffic. tom: philadelphia i am going to suggest is worse. washington is a little bit better. it is very variable. not a zip code to zip code. that is too narrow. it is almost county to county. there is variability. it is not malaise. that is my weather thing. i am tossing it to you to give us the five-day forecast. [laughter] jonathan: it has been phenomenal to experience. step outside, the eyes are burning. you can taste it in the air. these wildfires paint the skies orange in new york and beyond. it -- lisa a: it feels like getting another global crisis. i say this as a native new yorker. there is an eerie calm. people are all wearing masks. things slow down. that is a visceral response in addition to burning nostrils. tom: i have a new respect for delhi. i go 70 miles outside shanghai to a town i cannot pronounce. i say what is the town like? he says it is one of chi

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.onathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning. the audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm jonathan ferro. getting your week started with equity futures on the s&p, just about positive. here come the upgrades. raising the price target of 4500. something close to 5% upside from 5 -- friday's close. tom: every note this week since look, here we are, up 20% off the total. critically, as you say, this got the same vision now to where we are going, which is sort of kind of like us, but we really don't want to reach out there. jonathan: the potential, lisa, for this rally to broaden out, something we were looking at her last week. today, it's pretty clear. outperformance on regionals. still on the map, and we had how many weeks of gains now? lisa: how long this to continue is anyone's guess. the fed is going to pause, whether it is hawkish or not. also, you are going to get anymore banking collapses. jonathan: just to build on what lisa said at the

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: day two of waiting for a bull market, welcome back, this is bloomberg surveillance from new york city. john is supposedly working in california on a beach, tom is on vacation. you have me again and also julian emanuel, chief equities derivatives and -- at evercore isi for the hour. it is a time when we are seeing a 20% potential gain, since lows in october, since lows in october cut is the rally real ? julian: i think so. our base case is sometimes -- sometime in the next few months, you will have a recession, so you will have a pullback. but this is a cyclical rally where we think the hallmark of the last week or so is a broadening of participation. lisa: you don't want to call it a bull market or a pause, a skip, why does it matter? >> if you go back to the tech bubble burst bear market, you had several rallies of 40 and 50% and the nasdaq of we made the final bottom. rather than labeling, you have to think about how you want to think about the long-term as an individual invest

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: cpi tuesday, live from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning or our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. your equity market is positive by little more than 0.1 percent on the s&p 500. we are 2.5 hours away from important economic data in america. tom: the market is getting out fronted this. there seem to be a celebration of a tilt to a better core statistic. maybe more than ever, it's not cpi tuesday, it's core cpi tuesday. the town is constructed. jonathan: china stimulus tuesday as well and excellent reporting from the team at bloomberg, considering a broad package of stimulus measures as the pressure builds on the chinese government. lisa: here's my issue with this story, are they trying to stimulate or support from some sort of significant deceleration. i don't have a sense of that. we are seeing that 5% target. tom: we tried to be out front and sometimes we get it wrong. ian shepherdson with this yesterday mike talked about his colleagues

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. market is positive by 0.5 percent. payrolls are 19 minutes away. lots of talks about the potential for stimulus out of china. tom: five goes on, we wake up to the senate solution. we wake up to the beijing solutia in china. we will wake up with the jobs report the changes fed policy going into june 14. i'm not sure which way it will cut. jonathan: lisa has been nailing this. you emphasize the importance of this payroll spread in regards to what they do and don't do. lisa: it seems like they want to pause and it will make a difference unless there's some kind of blow out. if we get something different, it is a tough moment when there is so much conflicting data. jonathan: the cpi is after this one as well. after governor jefferson and president harker? lisa: how can you push back against them saying we are going to skip? tom: look at the three-month moving average, how do they pause/skip. the data is the data. jonathan: e cumulative tightening over the past 12 months. they want to look

good morning. ♪ lisa: i'm lisa abramowicz.ons around the world. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is "bloomberg the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: coming up, slumps as central banks worldwide take a hawkish stance. chair powell doubling down on rate hikes

lisa abramowicz and tom keene getting ready for the 9:00 hour i believe it's amazing how the strengthnd i will say. it was illuminating to hear how a number of different shops are shifting to this longer view of higher rates. tom: may be the high point today other than we going to mike mckee her in a second the basic idea that 6% is talked about more. lisa: we are hearing this from strategists because you are hearing this sort of dynamism in the economy. tom: interesting to see joining us now on data michael mckee joins us. it can be important as a trade balance. mike: it's a minor importance. it does fall into the second quarter it comes in lower than anticipated at $74.6 billion. but that's up 10 billion from the month before. it may be a minor drag on growth but we'll have to see how the rest of it plays out. the atlanta fed is down 1.9%. so at this point we are seeing relatively strong growth. this is like pre-pandemic growth. tom: it's not a recession. mike: here's the interesting news that came across this morning. in you talked to the oecd and they are pessimistic but the busin

> "bloomberg surveillance "bloomberg surveillance this is" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: it is the quiet period. tom and jon have ditched me. luckily for us, we have lori who managed to ditch the kids and come on early to join us. really fabulous to see you. we are on the verge of this bull market. lori: it definitely feels like a downtrodden bowl. -- bull. lisa: we will get into all of that coming up but on a week like this, it is sort of a reset where people are taking a look at kind of a trickle of data coming out. this feeling that perhaps we are waiting on tender hooks to understand what the federal reserve is doing. is it a reset moment for you? do you feel like this is a gut pivot point? lori: i want to see what happens when the market reaches 4300. just seeing whether or not we can surpass that barrier. i think a lot of the technical community is looking at that as an important test. i want to see how we act when past that. in general, i do think we need this digestion period. it is the summer, a time deposit and reflect and think about the second half of t

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. after the fed decides we decide to continue forward. jon ferro on assignment in italy. tough detail. lisa with me. claims at 8:30. we will claim yesterday was on the edge of history making for the central bank. i got it wrong. lisa: perhaps this will mark the end of the rate hiking cycle and that is one of the theme i keep hearing about. why, if they had such hawkish rhetoric didn't they go that particular meeting? tom: ellen zentner flat out says the fed is done. madison metlife citigroup say they should've raised rates and forgot about all of the hawkish mumbo-jumbo. lisa: if they are actual projections they change and become more hawkish and increase their economic projections. we heard from jeff rosenberg their gaming out the scope of a potential recession. they did not want to move and they did not want to commit to a july move. that was indicative of something. tom: what matters. lisa will brief you. in the coming 48 hours, bullard, waller, and others. they sta

tom: good morning, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz from inflation headquarters in new york. good morning on a united kingdom wednesday. the message from britain is simple -- inflation is sticky. lisa: core inflation is getting to the highest level going back 31 years. it was supposed to stay the same it's mind-boggling when you think about the fact they had been fighting inflation and have been raising rates and we were talking better recession but now we are talking about the possibility that 6% bank of england rates? tom: a really good set of charts off our united kingdom economics desk and we report on the way we rolled over from the agony of the pandemic in the united kingdom just getting it done versus europe and a much better america. lisa: how much does this have to do with brexit? tom: can we go there before 10:00 a.m.? lisa: is it idiosyncratic? how idiosyncratic are the stories of inflation around the world. tom: we will cover this today because this is important and it will move the markets to an extent. i sit here and i look at every country that's different. i ha

tom: really a key phrase, persistent inflation lisa abramowicz and tom keene. meeting 2:00 p.m. this afternoon we will have special coverage for you. before we go all equity all the time, lisa the bond market i need the disbelief forget about persistent rates but the vicinity has mentioned the dreaded word six of getting from five point excess no one is modeling if you go to 5.5 or 5.6. or even touch a six handle. lisa: march 1 this year people were talking about the interest rates because the banking crisis. everyone has moved on and moved into some of these regional bank stocks. at what point does the fed lead into banking crisis, credit contractions versus this feeling of perhaps we need to revisit the belief in that dreaded six handle or potentially art restrictive rates? tom: if you want to worry you can look at people market effort right now we are seeing many houses just higher the morgan stanley shop they are not. michael wilson is cio, at morgan stanley and one of your themes, michelson, is there is a complete miscast on the interest rate game addressed

michael: i will be with your coanchor lisa abramowicz who is filling in for jon ferro. sia. pressure taking russia to free russia from -- lisa filling in from john. stephen: we have not had a jonathan ferro siding -- sighting yet. what we have is a nice lift to the market. we say good morning. lisa abramowicz is getting ready for that unclog arrow -- for the 9:00 hour. i mispronounced it. thank you to the global audience were threatening -- for shredding out the ugly american -- you have been there, no doubt. michael: want to talk about what we --tom: i want to talk about what we solve for adjustments from ellen zentner. do you anticipate lots of midyear adjustments from economists as we -- they get out from july and this is tempered meeting? michael: adjustments may come slowly but if you watch the data, it will we about -- it will be about, do the inflation numbers and job numbers come in as that that expect and i think the jobs numbers could be -- we get a big increase like we did last month with an -- unemployment come on raises questions on whether they want to tigh

jon: right now, at bloomberg invest in new york, lisa abramowicz is sitting down with boaz weinstein.g. team transitory was said with confidence and then wrong. we have to accept there is a pick 5 and fixed point prediction of this will happen or this will not happen or there will not be a recession or there will be a hard landing -- thinking about test to figure out four moves ahead is not the right game. it is more apt to think about poker where you have an appointment -- an opponent and they bed in you raise are you benton they raise -- they bet and you riase or you bet and they raise. there are a life chances and different outcomes. instead of saying there will be a recession or there will not, i howl at the tv screen when i hear that, there is a varying outlook. you go with 40% chance of recession or goldman just shifted to 25%. you can have a 40% chance of a recession happening and still make the investment because it is priced at 5%. the way i look at credit right now is there is almost no chance of a real pickup in default. through that range of outcomes, it informs our invest

tom: bloomberg surveillance into claims and lisa abramowicz tells the advisory group limited visibilityugh year ahead note. lisa: that's what people are readjusting to with those shares lower at this point by 4%. tom: you wonder if there will be claims from maces as they right size. we turn to michael mckee on the anticipated weekly dated and other stuff as well. mike: including unit labor costs and foreign productivity. we see nonfarm productivity down 2.1% but had initially been reported as 2.7% negative. a slight improvement there and unit labor costs initially reported at 6.3% comes in at 4.2% so that is a big change. it'll be interesting to go under the hood and see why they changed. jobless claims is the number everybody has been following. we talk about the trend, 232 for the last week. the week prior was revised up to 230 so almost no change in claims and it doesn't look like the labor market is getting any weaker. we've had three numbers, the jolts numbers, the adp numbers and the claims numbers strong. if you were a betting person, the ism employment number comes out at 10 com

lisa abramowicz is getting ready for the next hour of the open. ent right now. we have lots of headlines coming out. you heard about the trump trial, lisa mentioned this, antony blinken announcing more ukraine aid coming out tomorrow. the 10 year yield is 3.77%. if you are a retail investor looking at a 20 year duration or union bond, you have been slammed over the past 24 months on the total return index. the end of the great bond party. we have meghan swiber from bofa securities inc we got absolutely slammed price down 50%. now what? meghan: you have yields a relatively attractive levels but it's time to be buying. what history tells us is that you need to wait until the final fed hike of the cycle to feel more confident going long duration. what we see from investors, is the global asset sentiment survey. it has a pretty long history and it tells us the right now, investors have more confidence and long and frustration than they have it any other point in time. tom: the fed is that the two-year space, long-duration is that currently at 10 years