jonathan arrow and lisa abramowicz on the shin -- jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz on vacation.give you perspective on american labor in the economy. futures up 17, the vix at 15.4 eight. michael mckee gives us wisdom. mike: things are better than expected at 187,000 jobs created during august, exactly the same as the prior month. i am waiting for revisions to drop. . the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%. we will check on the nonfarm payrolls revision in just a second. the change in manufacturing payrolls is big, 16,000. that was in the adp report, kind of odd given the stories we have seen about many actually these days. average hourly earnings came in much slower than intesa needed. 0.2% increase. this was what was expected. labor force participation rate rises 62.8%. that is interesting. the july number for the total payrolls is 157,000 after revisions, significantly lower. which means we had a rise to the same level we had last month. that means probably a revision to august will be coming. private payrolls, 155,000. that was initially reported as 172,000. it is 179,000 today.

tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. he was back in a corner. : what a shocker. tom: the answer is ferro was down in the corner with the tots crew. he was not hugging players, but he was going mental. it is great. he is on assignment in london, recovering. futures negative four. we are focusing on the bonds space as we say. what is the curve inversion right now? 62 basis points. great -- the hand check will be great. we are dis-inverting. lisa: maybe that is the tipping point where you reach some sort of new reality where people start to understand may be this is the level we will live with for a longer period of time and that is why you are getting that flattening. everybody has been saying that they are buying bonds but they are selling them. tom: a yield basis like price down yield up that is where we are going. you must listen to the interview like zz top years ago. lisa: [laughter] tom: if you are with the global wall street you half to listen. he was hugely controversial last time. the president of the united states wearing patagonia on the

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. ave a 'bramo yield space. stasis off of the theater yesterday. lisa: stasis off of theater that pushed yields beyond where people had previously expected. you would expect if it was just a blip on a thinly traded day, at a certain point you would expect a big bounce back with people flooding into buying. you're not seeing that. that is notable. tom: julia coronado to be with us herein a minute on fed speak. first, michael mckee is with us. as we spoke to mike wilson about nominal gdp, you are looking at what we do at bloomberg economics and they have modeled out 4% nominal gdp. elaine: we have the new bloom -- mike m.: we have the new bloomberg economists survey. here is the interesting thing for september. economists are now seeing 2.1% growth for 2023. in december of last year, they saw 3/10 of a percent, so we have really marked up growth. it is coming in stronger than the fed had been dissipated. the study suggests we will see 3% growth in the third quarter, which would be lower th

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: tonight for the first time in our history, we strike all three the big three at once. strikes in america, live from new york city, good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. just about positive on the s&p 500. tom: not your father strike. when i saw it, they nailed it about the 10:00 p.m. stock. this is an original strike going back over to uaw history, back to 1958. into real challenges before world war ii. it is an original strike, a selective strike, that is what is new. jonathan: gm said they offered unprecedented package. from ford, the union made little movement. rambo, we have not heard from this white house, have we? we are waiting for a statement from the president. lisa: hit the -- he did speak with the leaders and auto manufacturers. what did he tell them at a time where his policy is contradictory? in one hand he's pushing for electric pickles a

lisa abramowicz will get a new iphone 15. lisa: only because i cracked my existing phone.nt. jonathan: why do you want to do it as a consumer? lisa: you can hang out. you're the first adopter. jonathan: does that still cool? it is pretty sad, isn't it? lisa: if you're with your friends and you were talking it gives you something to do. i am making a pitch. tom: i've been in that store, now that you mention it. i'm just taking it in because i think what dan ives would say as a bull on apple is it is not been 1100 or $1300 or $1600 transaction because you are slipping into it for 36 $.42 a month -- $36.42 a month. i take issue with the snob is him of a lump sum purchase. it is not -- jonathan: this is paid, we are done and dusted. tom: then he can slip into a new one. jonathan: i am not upgraded until they ruin it. tom: george's about to walk out of the room. should we get to our guest? joining us is george saravelos, global head of foreign-exchange research. we had jordan rochester. you take a starkly different view. selected firms saying swiss franc dominant. you go the ot

this is "bloomberg surveillance," on tv and radio, alongside tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. i am jonathan ferro. the equity market on the s&p up by 0.5%. i think we can call this a month to forget. tom: in -- and a quarter to forget as well. the same tensions we have seen off the week. i will go back to something we said months and months ago. the acclaimed black swan quantitative finance expert, taleb, said the gravity has returned to the market. it was a great september. jonathan: it could stronger in the market. what a range we have seen. the high yesterday 4.6 861 on the 10-year yield. this morning, 4.54. i am not sure what that is based on. lisa a: maybe we got softer than expected inflation out of europe and very little in japan that did little for the market. i am curious how much we are looking at out of the market. suddenly bond markets are what issuing showing the volatility normally associated with different asset classes. tom: i don't know what we had in the hd block. i am certain in the first block on monday, we have kawa of ubs. he said ideal volatility is now

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: let's get back to work, live from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity market is negative by 0.2 percent on the s&p 500 following the biggest we of gains on the s&p. happy talk begins in september with goldman cutting the recession chances to 15% after week of decent data to keep this fed on the sidelines. jonathan: good research over the weekend and goldman leads the way with that lesser call on recession. it buttresses against a china basically in policy chaos. to the global town, i'm unsure of where we go other than jerome powell has a spirited leadership on economic growth. jonathan: later, as good as it gets. tom: he's still bullish. it is as good as it gets in the nuance here is that we peel away and maybe we get lesser and then he goes to a soft landing but i don't know what that means. soft landing bramo comes back from her sabbatical. jonathan: she returns less

alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. apple info, t. k., the iphone 14 is later this afternoon. tom: we should have all worn black turtlenecks today. it is a big marketing thing. the apple experts like mandeep singh are telling me i have to care. morgan stanley comes out and says "buy me," and tesla goes up 10%. jonathan: have you ever seen something like that? what is the signal you take from that? tom: there will be other companies going "please recommend us!" w aree getting ready for this news don't we get wednesday, thursday, and friday. lisa: may be the signal is that foam oh has not died yet. the feeling right now is people feel a little loss and tech is the juggernaut that has kept on going. if someone says by, you do it -- buy, you do it. jonathan: that is what happened yesterday in a major way. futures are pulling back just a little bit. bond jonathan: the euro is a little weaker against the dollar. lisa: $1.07 is the new level it's stuck at and we will get that until maybe thursday. the opec monthly oil report is coming out an

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with john -- with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. the only reason we are on tour is bramo's birthday. happy birthday. lisa: thank you. jonathan: what else do we do on the birthday tour? lisa: i'm going to camden this afternoon. tom: hot, brown water with the king? lisa: you are appreciating yourself. it is a proper hot water. tom: 80 with crumpets. jonathan: let's restart. fantastic guests, let's start with equity future on the s&p 500 positive by .1%. not talked about enough this morning, we are very close to highs on the tenure this morning. .434 in america. tom: it is underplayed in america. 10 year real yield as the benchmark, against two percent, anything past 2.03% is something new. this is underplayed right now. that is going to change abruptly. there is a meeting on wednesday. jonathan: there is neither -- another meeting on thursday. your favorite line come that phrase from the disney movie, a whole new world. tom: it is a whole new worl

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom king, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning crowder audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. i difficult couple of days, futures lower this morning, front and center at the epicenter of our conversation this morning. apple negative by 2.7 percent in the premarket. reporting a bloomberg, allow me to sherry, china plans to expand a ban on the use of iphones, it is sensitive -- and it's into the departments to government-backed agencies and state firms. tom: there's a headline. the other one is two of my iphones are broken at home as we get ready for the apple meeting, coming up the next number of days. apple drawdown is 8% from the intraday peak. it has pulled back but this has happened before but i take your point, is this time different? i think it bears a lot of scrutiny by mark gurman and our team on the pacific rim. jonathan: you are right to mention september 12, the new iphone launch. china is

alongside lisa abramowicz, tk is away. he likes to take a walk in the countryside. we need to to the wrinkle in the soft landing dream. lisa: is that supply or demand driven? if it is supply driven, what is that mean? does it create more of a hiccup because you have higher growth? is higher by the supply side. i want to know how it plays out? how do they signal that they're playing through? if you're trying to come up with the narrative with how high yields were going, companies with a strong dollar. is it technical or something longer-lasting? you mention the dollar strength, eight straight weeks of dollar strength on the dollar index and now we see some pushback in asia. china and japan. they are two different responsive but highlighting the importance of why this rally is concerning. and it's a rally against other asian currencies. for japan, it creates the question of the end of yield curve control and for china, do they want to raise their currencies? what is their concern for not allowing the currency to depreciate? sonali: they will talk and talk a little bit

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: $95 crude. live from london for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa boyne words, i'm jonathan ferro. -- lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. in the equity market, posited by 0.1%. we go to the commodity market, brent 94--- $94.93. tom: i take your point, oil is game changer here and it is not $95, it is how we got here. can you imagine 97? why can't you extrapolated out on the edge of $100? right now we are at $100 per barrel. jonathan: what is it influence, what does it change? we have to ask a question from the federal reserve into tomorrow. does this change anything for policy and for forecast next year? lisa: ellen's that never says no at morgan stanley and another at moody say it could be game changer. saying anything over $100 for any length of time and we are going to be very sick. on one hand, you have to think about what this might do with a diff -- disinflationary way but also good prices

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: inflation in america, live from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity markets are slightly negative on the s&p 500. minutes away from cpi this morning. tom: somebody stopped me on the street last night and asked me what i looked at and i look at cleveland cpi. there is now casting. bramo is now casting. cleveland cpi, we will not go into the details no but it's at 4.80%. that comes down again off the data this morning which is disinflation. jonathan: later today it's about the split between headline cpi led by gas prices and core cpi potentially. lisa: levels will change for people who will not look at one print? the fed will not look at one print so how big of a boost could you potentially see a reaction from? where is the threshold and where is the market biased, toward upside or downside? jonathan: this sets us up for the fed next week. the ecb will be this thursday. r

announcer: this is bloomberg "surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: three day losing streak on the s&p 500, having a little look at day four. live from good -- new york city this morning, good morning. your equity market negative by a quarter of 1% on the s&p 500. president biden touching down in new delhi going into the g20 and last week, -- going over to china and we got this new huawei. that drops as the president arrives at the g20 in india. tom: someone sent me a video and it showed the store packed. everyone looking at the new toy and the guy turned around and crossed the mall and look at the apple store which was empty. will that mood change at the apple meeting coming up? it is complex. what does it mean for apple, the defense characteristics and all that. it is a toxic brew. jonathan: toxic. two days, apple down 6%. lisa: especially 160 billion dollars of market valuation. a scope of what that kind of loss means. we do not understand exactly what the meaning of this probe level is. we heard that from u.s. government saying we have t

lisa abramowicz on tom keene here. we have been doing durable data checks all morning. find a durable data point to give direction. we get durable goods in just seconds. it's important to say the dollar strength is the one move that has permeated and continued from day-to-day and continues today. tom: with a durable report on durable goods, michael mckee. why do they matter? mike: that's a durable question. gets asked a lot. the headline numbers don't matter as much is the capital goods orders. let's start there. up .9% after a .1% gain the prior month, which is a surprise. we will have to see if that is revised. the capital goods orders is good news. that was revised down to negative four. over the past two months, you have a swing of .5%. durable goods orders overall up .2% after falling 5.6%, a revision down by about .4%. x transportation up four. the headline was expected to fall more because x transportation take out the boeing numbers is what you have to do. at this point, it looks like that did not matter all that much. shipment 7.7%. i heard you and steve talkin

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and tom keene from london.to stand still, unlike what jim bullard would have done, raise rates. jonathan: i cannot wait for the conversation with jim bullard. he left the federal reserve, not like he needed un-leasing anyway. you remember that almost protest at the bottom of the s and p dot plot many years ago? i would love to hear what he has to say on the projection from the federal reserve. if you can prescribe a narrative to that projection, to use some of chairman powell's language, it's cream soft landing with the chairman says, that is not a baseline but the objective. i am trying to work out, what is the forecast? lisa: and if they cannot forecast it with accuracy, do they have a thesis about it is a worse prognostication, inflation or a recession? they are saying the words they care more about inflation but their actions are leading some people's a lot of questions. tom: state with this right now, michael with jim bullard in a moment. i would say the gentleman from indiana university is in purdue and w

this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. equity market positive.s up by 0.4% per year u.s. retail sales and jobless claims later this morning. before we get there, and ecb rate decision. we are expecting a news conference of uaw, two hours after that, 10:00 p.m., midnight is the deadline to strike a deal with the choice of victory. -- detroit's big three. tom: i want three countdown clocks today. 8:30 a.m., ecb. 10:00 p.m. when the union speak and then 12:00 tonight we see if we get a strike. jonathan: the bigger story? tom: is a big question. but i have to go with ecb. from historical standpoint, for those of you in america, this is not the fed. it is going to be different. jonathan: so much harder for christine lagarde today. inflation forecast for next year which might be above 3% based on recent reporting, growth outlook might have to be downgraded based on what is going to happen with germany, potentially contraction for this year, then the rally in crude, weakness in euro. it is not sound great. lisa: it is the nightmare for central banks whi

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.his afternoon. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. bramo stepped off. your positive by 0.2%, lifted equity market, hours away from chairman powell, the press conference and the lovely forecasts you look forward to. tom: but i will look at is the dot plot -- what i will look at is the dot plot -- it is showing a resiliency, act -- an equity market, big amount of money that says they will believe in the fed. servetus super medium -- servetus super medium -- savita subramanian -- the bottom line is there is an enthusiasm here away from country to country domestic politics. it is a positive ferment here in these meetings. jon: bruce is on the high for longer page and how we reference the dot plot and projection over the federal reserve, he used the word aspirational and said it was as relational to look at next year and expect inflation to come in without too much damage to the labor market and that is a man that does not believe we can get inflation down towards 2% withou

this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathanp by .1% on the s&p. on a 30 year, $95 crude weekly on wti. in the last day or so we have dxy and highs we have not seen for at least 12 months. tom: a blended major trading currency. about 54% euro. jon, i would emphasize on a thursday with massive economic data what i would emphasize is the equity market with a vix of 18.1 8%, removed from the turmoil in bonds and fx. jonathan: big turmoil. away from equities. we have talked about this already. stocks have been a bit of a snooze. it is noteworthy, but based on what you are seeing in treasuries, yields you have not seen for 16 years, the dollar index, highs we have not seen since the back end of last year, euro-dollar briefly 1.04. it is more than notable. lisa: which to me raises a question. is this the market saying that the economy has weighed in and a can handle rates at these levels? that this is manageable if this is the new normal? companies will adapt and adjust? everything will be great and you will continue to earn profits i