jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. and the equity markets, the world turned upside down. thank god, at 10:00 a.m., we had the jonathan ferro statistics. jonathan: ism services matters and manufacturing less so. it has been sub 50 since late 2022, and we are following that to make a trading call on the broader economy, and you would just be dead wrong. it is decent if you focus on jobless claims and this week is about the jobs report. the estimate at the moment is 170, 100 90's from citi and goldman. -- 190's from citi and goldman. this is not what we expected to start. tom: and wage inflation, do not pass go to the fed so far. they cannot move until wage inflation comes down. jonathan: they are teasing it. chairman powell furthered with the idea. later this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. tom: in underpinning here, lisa, this is your wheelhouse, the idea that the bond market turned upside down, private equity and credit are canadian shop today, talking about certain transactions up in canada. what is the stress in

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. an: the new year hangover continues. this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. the market on the s&p this morning is totally unchanged after a three-day losing streak on the s&p and a four day losing streak on the nasdaq 100. tom: a little better take. we have a wonderful person coming up. you see that within the jobs report in early december over to now where you go between 4.23% to four point 6%. the world has changed at the beginning of 2024. jonathan: >> the adp report, that they want is right around the corner. >> we are seeing informational shifts but not anything that misses her the screams some sort of cataclysmic fissure into the market. how does the labor market to with fake and accurately moves. tom: you know what -- jonathan: you know where i am going with this. how do redcoats work? -- rate cuts work? morgan stanley said it is worth repeating. attempting to the toothpaste back in the tube. lisa: before these minutes came out and the record c

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz.kly loss on the s&p 500 going back to october. earnings for the big banks, kicking off friday. tom: for the banks it will be a view measurement of the economy. on the inflation side, i found a very mixed. the first thing i did today was to look at the screen and i would call it a jungle this week. this jonathan: we continue to project a soft landing for the labor market. will the data that we get this week speak to that? lisa: we are talking about what could go wrong after really messy data on friday. the number of takes that i read -- what that said about the economy ranged from you have to trust headline number to all of this data is messy and you cannot trust anything. they were each picking out their own quadrant to focus on. jonathan: what could go wrong? sounds -- in our view, rate cut is disappointed. that is what can go wrong. tom: it is out there. someone was over bullish or over cautionary. john, you devolve from double debit -- double-digit omg to over the moon returns and s

lisa abramowicz on -- and the surveillance team have been in davos.ubricant for m&a this year and optimism about that happening. we got news from spirit airlines saying the jetblue merger agreement remains in effect even after the doj blocked it and how this creates a conundrum for these second-tier airlines on how they move forward when they don't have the scale or balance sheet to necessarily do that in the face of a government that does not want to reduce competition. what does a second-tier company like spirit airlines do? how are you thinking through m&a in 2024 when there's so much government pushback? yet you had the tailwind of lower rates. margie: i think looking at m&a, what you often see is the best companies are required. smaller or specialty companies are required by larger companies. typically we don't see the weaker companies being acquired. that agrees with the kind of thing you see in private equity, where they look at the spread and cash flow. they will have a better bid then companies looking for a strategic addition to their earnin

that is what should happen. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with john -- jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz: payrolls on friday, that on wednesday. earnings, tuesday, thursday. treasury refunding later this week. top story later in the program. lisa: it might not be the top story. did you hear from chris harvey, this is what ignited the rally november 1 when treasury secretary janet yellen decided not to issue long-term bonds. just saying. jonathan: it contributed to the move. chris harvey of wells fargo on with us earlier looking for 3600 on the s&p. unemployment could climbed 6% or 7% by year-end, that is a different call than what we heard so far this year. lisa: it was predicated on this idea inflation is a leading indicator and disinflation is a leading indicator of weakness we will see and economic figures. i am watching jewels. sleeper indicators, the idea that the rate has been climbing. people feel confident enough to quit their jobs, no, they do not. jonathan: commodity market wti, you look at brent after the offense of yesterday we are expecting a move higher. unchanged on wti. b

this is bloomberg surveillance alongside lisa abramowicz prayed i'm jonathan ferro.t unchanged on the s&p 500. five days of gains on the s&p for long time highs. tesla negative after a dreadful hour. down by 8% or 9%. that's one to watch. the ecb 14 minutes away. lisa: they are going to hold. it isn't necessarily going to be what gets a lot of people's attention. christine lagarde takes the helm and then maybe walking back that the market is expecting pricing at 64% chance of april rate cut. will she talk about trump. >> talking about the magic soft landing. growth is still good. inflation is slowing down. could we say the same thing about europe. the data has been dreadful. >> they are saying look at the data because at this point the central bankers can say what they want but they are kind of caught in what davis was talking about which is essentially leaning into some sort of soft landing. the more the market moves away from them and get further away from the goal. >> the german finance minister said we are tired men. we need a good night sleep and a good cup of c

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: happy new year. jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. s&p 500 this morning -.1%. hitting the ground running for 2024. earnings season kicking off with earnings from jp morgan. starting the year on a nine week winning streak. tom: what's so important here is it was about a catch-up being gone. if you assume -- the super bowl in the 8:00 hour if we are going to be bullish what kind of bullish are we going to be. jonathan: let's talk about the scores of the last 12 months. the s&p 500 up 24%. the range of forecasts on wall street coming into this year you could drive a double-decker through them. 4200 on the low end. 5200 at the high end, oppenheimer prayed -- oppenheimer. abigail: -- lisa: that's really rare. we've seen 20% up, 20% down pretty consistently for the past couple of years and you'll have to go back to 2016 for a 10%. tom: i thought over the weekend over the long holiday it was way too much short-term analysis. i went over

jonathan: good afternoon, this is "bloomberg serveillance" alongside lisa abramowicz. m jonathan ferro. to get us through the week with annmarie hordern. bramo on iowa. lisa: everyone focusing a donald trump, no one really wants to talk about it when you are in front of a group, but this is the awkward elephant in the room when you talk in front of a panel, but it is definitely everything that everyone is analyzing and frankly, unprepared for as the villa discussed. jonathan: in many ways, davos started last week on friday with christine lagarde took french tv. that set the tone for conversations through all of this week. annmarie: trump is not just dominating in iowa, he's dominating the conversations here because europe, even though they had for years to prepare for potentially another trump 2. 0 administration, they are running on -- around almost panicked. >> talk about the substance. president lagarde is essentially saying that the former president if he becomes the next president is going to be a threat to european goals. climate, nato, etc. what has europe done f

for our audience worldwide this is bloomberg surveillance alongside lisa abramowicz alongside annmariewo stocks, two stories with earnings different than ups versus gm ups is down by more than 6%. gm is higher by 7.5. lisa: ups underwhelming by a pretty significant margin. how much of this is because their packages are going down and profit margins are going down? how much is competition with amazon? general motors seeing additional profits in 2024. speaking of cost cuts but defying expectations of a much poorer outlook even with all of the concerns about higher labor costs, a transition to ev's that is being stymied. potentially a more difficult scenario for consumers. jonathan: we will speak to mary barra. we still need to speak about a future for ev's given the setbacks. ford pulling back from production of the f-150 lightning. we have had news in europe on the likes of vw as well. the news is not good at all. lisa: this comes as people are saying that it's not necessarily completely thrown out of the water but just delayed in terms of the transition. i want to hear from jm how are

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning for our audience worldwide. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity mark on the s&p 500's positive. let's bring up bitcoin. it's happened, the sec says the spot etf has been approved. tom: katie was a st. yesterday. i reamed her about gary gensler and how upset the chairman is over this entire bitcoin folly. and three hours later all hell breaks loose at the sec. jonathan: the breach was not due to any issues with that system adding the account did not have two factor authentication enabled at the time of the incident. pretty embarrassing stuff for the sec. a lot of people have been waiting to see the result of. tom: you see this with the number of people. and also the desperation to get out front on this. ages ago we had gas wars where it would be $.29 a gallon and there would be a gas war. that's where bitcoin is. >> in and around 46 k. we need to talk about a better mood. on this program yesterday publishing shortly thereafte

jonathan: good morning, with lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern, i'm jonathan ferro. three consecutive all-time highs on this and be. trump on the cusp of clinching the gop denomination -- gop nomination. for nikki haley, 43.2. for trump, 54.5. lisa: this is completely expected. everyone expected trump to probably win. the question now is does nikki haley dropouts given she had a pretty victorious losing speech well rehearsed trump's angry winning speech. what is next if she has no path to be the nominee? annmarie: she said new hampshire is the first in the nation, not the last. she has some money. if you look at the south: a polls -- south carolina polls, it looks like she might be immersed in her home state. but she might want to hang around if for some reason trump cannot run in november. lisa: this is one of the most interesting aspects, hope and dream is something other than an matchup between trump and biden. with more than three quarters of the vote in, more than two in five voters voted for somebody besides biden and trump. annmarie: they don't want that matchu

alongside lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern, i'm jonathan ferro. risk of people, there is a difference between the thinkers and doers in davos. lisa: it seems like the thinkers are gloomy and the doers are optimistic. two people that run businesses have optimism and the people who think about what could go wrong or depressed. jonathan: at risk of offending people, i am sure we did. is that because they have a story to sell, a good or a product or service? to sell? for do see reason on the ground? annmarie: i believe them. it has been consistent and with specific examples. we are seeing that in consumer spending, even in beige book showed an increase in appetite of consumer spending. jonathan: is anybody reading the beige book? lisa: i read parts of it. jonathan: equities look like this, two days of losses can't replace with a day of gains. down by something like one percentage point. we bounced back by .25 percent and euros come back in by a few basis points. when you put together the comments by governor walz and be strong retail sale story we saw

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. jonathan: i am jonathan ferro. the s&p 500 negative by 0.5%. this is fed decision day. remember the middle of december when the chairman study were talking about rate cut. which one is it today? lisa: everyone has gotten carried away with rate cut's and probably just press conference will remove the bias. we will be parsing through the irregularities this and at the press conference. unlikely that they will make a move but they will probably lay the groundwork to make that move may be march, maybe in may and maybe after that. jonathan: when did talk about tech earnings. high expectations. before we start talking about disappointment, let's talk about the last 12 months. alphabet was up 60%. microsoft was up 65%. you have to bear that in mind before you look at the premarket price action and consider the numbers of yesterday. annmarie: i cannot agree more. the bar was incredibly high. we were asking yesterday is the bar high. the answer is absolutely. people want more. these earnings

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning to our audience worldwide. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. your equity market, negative by .2%. the nasdaq making it -- payrolls are around the. tom: average hourly earnings, 3.9%. i don't know how that moves but if it moves enough next he stuck it which is opening graham for 2024. jonathan: it has been a struggle coming out of the gate. the longest losing streak on the nasdaq since 2022. the big banks between 117 to 119. lisa: with the whisper figure being 188,000 on the terminal. good news is bad news and bad news is good news. is that the paradigm? that is what we keep seeing. the better the data, the worse the markets. jonathan: the jobless claims number, the downside surprise, will payrolls follow that to make it three out of three? tom: we are desperate for information. we had a strange first -- strange fourth quarter, some people taking the 1970's. we are begging for a narrative. jonathan: some people begging for

. >> "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jon ferro. jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. the s&p 500 just about positive. it is drum roll, api thursday. tom: and then onto banking tomorrow. i will conflate them all in a moment. how important is the next day, ppi, that no one is talking about where you have a disinflationary trend of what the public is doing and also what is mrs. are doing with ppi? jonathan: the data point that neither of us have discussed, jobless claims later this morning. -- 2.10, historically low. tom: 2.8 0%. how is that stress? it is fully employed america to a lot of people and it rolls over to a market with a big yesterday x boeing and a further bid today. -- yesterday expoing, and a further bid today. jonathan: what have you been doing? tom: i have been put on a list of bitcoin idiots. jonathan: who is running that list? tom: on behalf of senator warren of the commonwealth of massachusetts. she is on the list. jonathan: above you or below you? tom: oh, way abo

this is bloomberg surveillance alongside lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro with anne-marie. the title of this forum is rebuilding trust. it should be operation pushback from central bankers worldwide. lisa: that seems to be one of the biggest themes, whether it was christine lagarde or dan pinto from jp morgan saying, stop it. we are going to cut rates that much. the tension is either you don't have the soft landing or you have the soft landing and no rate cuts. pick one. jonathan: the last one he for hours has been fascinating. you had madame lagarde pushing back. not on the idea of rate cuts this year, we should say that upfront. this is about the timing and how much they deliver in 2024. lisa: and their commitment to bringing inflation down. chris waller talked about how they won't cut as aggressively in the past because of the instructional inflationary forces. similar commentary from the ecb. what will it take for the market to believe them? where are the rate cuts going to come from? from disinflation or from weakness that we are seeing from places like china? jonathan:

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. i am jonathan ferro. the equity market on the s&p 500 totally change. it is the race for the white house and the republican battle new hampshire is down to two. it is donald trump versus nikki haley. lisa: markets are saying we will not care until october and they are trying to understand what the ramifications are. that is why people are increasingly focused on what this means for taxes and spending. whoever wins it does not matter, no government official want the government economy -- will what the economy to go down. jonathan: if trump wins new hampshire he could become a virtual lark and this thing might be done. annmarie: pretty much invincible because it will be hard for nikki haley to make up that ground. she spent a lot of time in capital. for her this is make or break. lisa: it has never happened before that a candidate has lost iowa and new hampshire and gone on to become the candidate. that is a history. jonathan: let us get to price action. equity features totally unchange

i will pass the baton over in half an hour's time to team surveillance with lisa abramowicz, annmariewill have full coverage starting at 1:30 p.m. from new york, a huge slate of guess they have lined up. -- of guests they have lined up. a great lineup to break down the fed statement and give you a read of what comes next. sick with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of powe

this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene and lisa abramowicz. everyone bloomberg surveillance from new york. this is the day for big bank earnings. jp morgan at 1.72 is their book value, citigroup's last in line up .52. jane fraser has a wall to climb. jonathan: they have a new strategy. we are higher since october but the stock lower by 2%. sonali: we are looking at fourth-quarter revenue and the meson expectation. they expected to bring in 18 billion but they brought in 17.4 billion. returns on equity in the fourth quarter come in above expectation -- sorry below expectation in the fourth quarter. they were expected to be positive. this was a kitchen sink quarter. what we will see in the next hour the cost hedges for structuring. we know their cost and extraneous parts of the world. this is jane fraser's year. this is the year she has to bring the turnaround story to wall street. we have to see what that is in investment banking business. jonathan: a fourth quarter that is disappointing. jane fraser said is very disappointing. as you know, inv

lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro are standing by with brian moynihan. come up here hand ahead about the layers on and then brian moynihan turned up, and i started stripping off just like to cool like brian. brian moynihan alongside us, the chairman and ceo. good to see. let's talk about this economy and consumer. you are the number one small business lender in the country. have a massive retail but is. what are you seeing versus where we were problems ago? brian: we have 66 million consumers and retract every week how they move money in and out of their accounts. over the last 12 months they have gone from a growth rate in the first part of 2023 of 10% down to a year-over-year growth rate of 4.5%, 5%. pretty consistent since the mid summer. the good news is it has slowed down because it is more consistent. was. sort of a low-inflation economy. draghi effect is starting to tame their behavior. the bad news is, as they are slowing down our prediction by our research team is go from almost a 4.5% or whatever it was growth weight -- growth rate, to a soft l

for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance with the lisa abramowicz and marine her turnarie herdern. lisa: people are coalescing around a soft landing all pointing to stronger growth. the president of the united states calling for a recession. janet yellen saying the bad part of the inflation story is over. >> biden gets poor remarks when it comes to the economy but the timeline could be on their side. the michigan sentiment survey, americans are starting to feel better but can they sell this going into november? lisa: when talking to uber drivers five dollars would buy you something you could eat and now it can't in the same way. that is problematic and makes them feel negative. is there enough time before november for people to adjust to prices at higher levels than they were in 2020? jonathan: the consumer is about the cumulative inflation since 2020. you need this labor market to stay decent and wage growth to continue climbing. the problem i have with the data , so much of it is a conflict. the payroll data looks good but beneath the surface, it's just in a few indu

jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside lisa abramowicz together with anne-marie porter . your equity market this morning adding weight to that rally, positive by 0.4%. lisa said last week the difference between doers and thinkers in dubose, switzerland. lisa: you just heard that in all of the interviews that we did in terms of this optimism and you talk to the thinkers, they say about -- what about the middle east, the election cycle and the potential for some slowdown? why are you guys so optimistic? i understand the anchors but the words are giving a different story right now. jonathan: the president of the united states, hoping the former and the latter are wrong. annmarie: because the risks right now are concerning for them, given the fact that when you look at what people care about, it is the economy. people are starting to feel better about it. good inflation is coming down. could something like what is going on in the red sea up and that especially when it comes to inflation? jonathan: what is your northstar? what is guiding you? if you had to pick one the last 1

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. elevision, bloomberg surveillance. lisa abramowitz was looking at bit coin and her retirement plan looks good. the market is one big distraction except it's here. potentially a bitcoin etfs there and gary gensler had an extended thread with the risks involved. those risks overlaid in the market, it's a risky 2024. jonathan: let's talk about financial markets in the last week or so. the conflicting economic data, the conflicting earnings stories as well. you can identify a slow down. maybe we'll worry about what's happening in the broader economy and companies like lululemon and abercrombie updating their outlook. nvidia release new products. tom: six trading days here and we could go down three more days and have another january 2, 3, 4. we go up like yesterday and it shows the immense uncertainty out there on top of bitcoin. jonathan: it's soft data versus hard data. so the survey data is not fantastic. you look at the hard data and things are ok. jobless claims are around 200 k. tom: