. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan arrow and lisa abramowitz. sa: on the brink of a bear market ahead of a pivotal fed meeting. good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. tom keene, jonathan farrakhan and lisa abramowitz. john is out, kailey is very much in. -- jonathan ferro. it has been fluctuating, the nasdaq down more than 3%. tom: a half an hour ago, a leg lower, reaching through some new low levels. lisa, -95, -91. lisa, the yield spaces so out of kilter when i look at the screen i am mixing up the two-year and the 10 year. lisa: i think a lot of people are because we did see a yield curve conversion meaning that they were the same. even the two year yield exceeded that briefly before reverting back to normal that we hope for. we are looking at the highest yields going back to 2007. what can the fed say in this market? tom: i think it citigroup for about five hours ago i'm going to say making clear they felt 75 basis points is unlikely. it is a parlor game, something to talk about, chat about. just another way of saying you need more dat

what was the story in the abramowitz house? lisa: buying groceries this weekend and seeing a bill that is $170. tom: kailey leinz moving to brooklyn, the moving trucks extended the entire length of the brooklyn bridge. it was amazing. how about the inflation in moving? kailey: don't even get me started. not even the movers, the furniture, the clinic supplies. i have spent so much money on amazon the last week. tom: isn't that true? jesse hides it in a separate account. good one to amazon. -- morning to amazon. stay with us, edgar denning is coming up. this bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. elon musk sees a recession in the u.s. in the near future. the ceo spoke to bloomberg news. >> a is inevitable at some point. as to whether there is a recession in the near term, that is more likely than not. it appears more likely than not. ritika: the interview was part of the economic -- the qatar economic forum. biotin will decide if he will band the -- soaring prices would likely require congressiona

abramowitz coverage. it is going higher. lisasterday talking about how consumer credit has risen again in april after a surge in the prior month. why? this is my question. how much are we seeing consumers confident about their future, versus not caring? they can get credit and prices don't matter? which side of the coin as we talk about the strength of the consumer? on the other you do see banks wanting to extend credit, because they need to make those loans. they are incentivized lenders at a time when consumers need to spend. it is not a clear picture to me. jonathan: tom, what do you make of it? tom: i think things have tightened up because of the core costs across the american deciles. the lower deciles or flat out doing better, there is no question about that. the great middle class is looking at the monthly bills in a nominal space, they are looking at nominal mortgage, nominal rent, nominal gas, nominal auto, all of that, and it is killing them and they have hit the charge cards to boot. jonathan: lower and middle income g

abramowitz. she is expert at ig. i'm sorry, lisa, it is a -50%.look at the 10 year piece down 19%. >> is shocking. the fact we have not seen wholesale estimates from some of these portfolios is notable and actually, here is the issue: at the core, we have not seen corporate breakdown. the corporate fundamentals are still pretty good. at what point do people start selling off that as well, or does that become a haven? the s&p is on the brink of a bear market. we are 2% away. we are in a bear market for s&p. credit has not broken down the same way. this is the reason people think the federal reserve will not step in. if you don't have that credit impulse, if companies don't need to refinance, then what is going to cause the fed to say my goodness, we need to back away? nothing. that is the reason people are getting so bearish on stocks. tom: if we can't do it, it is fine, but at 5:00 a.m., over on the equity side, ok, we are above 30, and everyone was above 30, but not above 40. it is elevated, but as lisa said, it is not that catharsis this morning