lisa: are you seeing a lack of positioning? there was a short position heading into the year. it has gotten somewhat reduced. there are still people who expect yields to go up. >> it's been interesting. there was a jp morgan client survey last week that showed client positioning was the most neutral since february. like you said, there were so many shorts coming in this year, got burned with that 50 basis point drop. where they stand now, it is hard to tell. i like to look at the tlt etf. short interest on it right now is very low, at about 5%. it was as high as 20% in february. not the case now. it feels like people are hesitant to go back to shorting bonds because it has been so painful. lisa: kind of an existential question, but what fundamental metrics do yields track most closely? >> great question. it feels like every few weeks we care about supply, but i think it is similar to the stock market. we hear so much about the mobility data when it comes to the stock market, whether people are moving around, stopping at stores, booking restaurants, but it feels like we are star

lisa: are we passed peak content? michael: i think we are year or two years away. is going to put more money to work, amazon will as well. there is clearly too much content out there. the economics are forcing lower and lower returns. there is just too much capital chasing this opportunity. lisa: this wears on the hardware story of things, that regardless of who wins the content wars, more people are going to be streaming. is that the pure plate going forward to hinge on the streaming phenomenon that is only getting stronger, even if there is a war on content that is created keeps in pricing down the road -- created keeps -- created peaks in pricing down the road. michael: -- craig: the question is whether -- you could make the argument that in this particular gold rush, the ones that are selling the shovels are not the network operators but the network equipment suppliers who are seeing a serious boon. for the wireless operators, monetizing incremental traffic has always been problematic. for the cable operators, they have a better business structurally than the w

we have yields -- lisa, yields are creeping away. lisa: yields are creeping away. and the coral larry effect given the fact that people were wondering, well, yields can rise as long as it's slow and also just note, crude, turning higher on the day. third straight day of gains. tom: 71.37. romaine bostic with the individual stocks, romaine, what do you have? romaine: start off with j&j. a lot of talk about those booster shots. we know the u.s. pushing to start booster shots for moderna and pfizer vaccinated folks starting september 20. now j&j throwing its data on the pile. coming out with a report on early stage clinical trial about booster for its single shot immunization here. it shows very promising results here. there is no formal request yet to include j&j in this booster program. but j&j wants to be a part of the conversation here. j&j shares up fractionally. keep an eye on the chinese stocks that rally we saw ran into a speed bump. we heard from the s.e.c. chair late last night saying a lot of these companies need to be a little bit more transparent, a lot m

sending me back to -- kailey: you are -- lisa: you are sending me back to the wall. a key question at jackson hole next week is this shift in tone and how much it really encapsulates the increasing dovishness of fed members. will the prolonged there tapering because of this? robert kaplan has come out in front as being one of the more aggressive members of the federal reserve. angela merkel plans to meet with russia's vladimir putin. this is the last couple of weeks of angela merkel's tenure as chancellor of germany. what will she say about russia's continual presence in afghanistan despite the removal of u.s. troops? how much will she press them for some kind of concession for their involvement in that territory? at 1:00 p.m., we get the baker hughes u.s. rig count, and you can grow me why it is important. i am watching the oil markets in terms of supply and demand. this week has been about the demand dynamics and how much that will influence supply given that a lot of the shell companies in the u.s. -- shale companies in the u.s. have gotten a lot of new discipline

are advantaged. if one of these blues does not look like the other blues. lisa: you cannot criticize us off the bat for what we are wearing. tom: i am in blue, kailey's in b lue, lisa's in blue -- it's a blue friday. kailey: take it up with wardrobe. tom: looks like the san jose sharks on a bad day. [laughter] it has been a week of four fridays p that is how long this week has been. lisa: i know. it says more about how we are feeling this summer -- is it over yet? the pandemic is sort of coming back to the psychological hit, in addition to some of the pressures on the travel and leisure sector sending a new tone. this is what i take away. tom: off the gloom yesterday -- we were doing the gloom show, the markets catching a bid. and a real sustained level. lisa: if you look under the surface, yes, it was -- it has been fascinating. i've been shares that have absolutely gotten crushed. amazon, which is interesting. other shares have held in nicely and have done, back to this sort of stay home economy in big tech, dominance. it raises the question are we seeing a co

that is why we are seeing some of the scale back in high-yield bonds. lisa: mark howard was on the show earlier and he says right now there is no problem, you can keep leading into risk, but longer term we are setting ourselves up for any qualities within the market. potential bubbles, particularly with respect to certain credit borrowing. what is your sense of that? do you agree this will become a serious problem in a couple years? noelle: this is something we definitely have to watch and could be a problem in a couple years. what we are watching over the next three to six months after we get the taper announcement out of the way, whether or not it will be a taper tantrum and whether we learn from history is up for debate. in the next three to six months we want to stay nimble. that is when the fit hikes start to get price did. that is when the market turns to focus on the actual fomc mandate. employment coming down. whether or not inflation will be transitory and how sticky those components will be. jonathan: walked me through your approach with that in mi

tom: you are so pushy, what do you got to do? linear algebra? lisaam having them do my expenses. honestly, the idea that private companies are taking the lead is interesting. tom: futures make it to 10, dow up 91. the fix back up. please stay with us through the day. the gentleman from columbia, dean hubbard. good morning. ing. in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. >> good morning, good morning. equity futures are up, 30 minutes away from the opening bell. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg the open," with jonathan ferro. jon: we begin with the bi

i think the big box discounters are capturing more consumers. lisach longer can it continue in the terms of spending given the fact that we see prices rise and we are expecting wage increases to slow? dana: when i see the wage increasing -- increase is slowing, prices are rising in footwear and other categories. child tax credits will be there through the end of the year and the savings rate is high. i will see a sustained demand of enhanced spending through the christmas time period. lisa: is where people spending changing? i know we went through the cycle of devices and an explosion of people trying to buy clothes that fit them. where are the hotspots right now? dana: into the year end by category, innovation, whether it is denim, or footwear, and look at luxury, the strength has been solid. i think the other hotspot that we will see, take it look at off-price stores, basically they were not open for a significant part of last year and they do not have the digital channel and that will be a benefit to that also. tom: one final question, you are a b

lisa: they are connected -- a dovish taper. the fed chair saying we will taper, but you will not even be able to tell. we saw the biggest drop in the dollar going back to may, but why are we not seeing a bigger steepening in the yield curve? why are we not seeing it -- federal inflations go up if people believe this that will let the economy run hot. tom: lisa is right. it is gone absolutely nowhere. looking at $73 brent and the 16 64 and that goes to friday. 5.2% unemployment rate. better than good trends. lisa: however people expect a softening in the labor market on the heels of the labor market -- of the delta variant. they may potentially increase production, you have the fact that people are traveling less, canceling vacations. it is not necessarily that everything is stymied. this is a question, though. how much is this going to eat into economic momentum? tom, how many times did you go to eat this weekend? tom: you really want to know? i found a great new greek restaurant. and i found an italian thing downtown in the la

lisa: hot washing data. tom: we are going to have a hot washer. : annmarie sent us the definition, so we have it. tom: would you like to enlighten us? we have 12 seconds. lisa: the immediate after action analysis of an agency's performance. tom: ferro through a beverage at him. we have to go hot washer right now. joining us after the hot wash, this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) thin

is that we will power through, it will not be as big of a dip as some are concerned about. lisabrian, is this a buying opportunity, do you sense more skepticism? greg, were you weighing in? greg: it is the third week in a slow august. professional investors are on vacation. i wouldn't read too much into the move and you are seeing, even last week in the high-yield market. over all trend is still positive. lisa: what would you do with the action? it might be an opportunity for some. greg: truth be told, i think it is an opportunity but we expect a pickup in issuance after the holidays. there is not too much issuance going on. if you wait until after labor day, there will be better opportunities then. lisa: matt, what do you make of the action we have seen on the margins in certain parts of credit? matt: a lot of the street is out. you know there will be a big calendar in september. we expect $150 billion of investment grade issuance. the mindset for us right now is let's wait and see what comes in two weeks. we are stockpiling liquidity, hoping there will be concessions in these

are coming at it. annmarie: very good point, lisa. tandem of all of these package, which infrastructure will likely get the go-ahead this morning, they have to decide how they are going to approach the debt limit. a key point yesterday when they release the budget resolution was there was no language in terms of debt limits, which means democrats want to do it on a bipartisan basis. republicans say you have the control. you are the ones who have the trillions of dollars of spending. you raise the debt limit. no one wants to be responsible to be the ones who have raised the debt limit. politically, it is not something you want to deal with. jonathon: we have inflation data in america tomorrow morning. we have one of the biggest food producers in this country, tyson foods, coming out and saying he cannot keep up with cost pressure. he cannot put prices up quickly enough. how is this playing out in the sea with everything -- in d.c. with everything we talked about? annmarie: republicans are pointing to inflation. mitch mcconnell talking

we are firmer 5.4%. lisa: you mentioned the report out this morning, going against what the administration was saying yesterday, saying they were downgrading their estimate for demand because of the delta variant. and they expect a surplus in inventories. it just to give you a sense of the crossways here on the politics of oil. the data we are looking at at 8:30 am, u.s. jobless claims, we are expecting a deceleration in the number of people filing for unemployment benefits as well as ppi, the producer price index, for july. the expectation is for a similar read as yesterday in the cpi, a deceleration yet a very high rates remain. your point about supply-side constraints, how much do we see the potential for this to push ppi index higher? how much do people look past this data as backward looking to future potential constraint. at 9 a.m., consumer comfort index comes out. inflation is one thing in people's expectation for inflation is another. we have seen this constrain consumer sentiment. how much will this

are they in the bond market? tom: the bear expressing himself is lonely at the jackson hole lodge. lisa and i, we are on medication. i am missing the acclaimed snake river lager swiss burger at the pioneer grill. francine: i will send one over. i was looking at the story which blew my mind. you need trading has not been this low since the start of the century. think about that, down 34%. tom: which century? lisa: this one. tom: it's a long century. yes, folks. lisa has a kimchi burger. this is boomer, good morning. oomer, good morning. >> it was approximately 1000 and we leave the number of americans actively seeking to leave afghanistan is lower significantly. it is hard to overstate the complexity and danger of this effort. we are operating in a hostile environment in city and country now controlled by the taliban with of the very real possibility of an isis-k attack. tom: the secretary of state working overtime for his president, changeable story in kabul. you wake up every morning i look at the breaking headlines and we do the same thing and thank our team in europe and the grade hi

he's a mets fan, and they are doing well. lisa are, but don't talk about it or else they won't be. jonathan: this is quite a market check, isn't it, going from financial markets to baseball teams, mets are on top, and apparently i'm not meant to talk about it? ok. [laughter] let's get you some stocks. romaine: let's start in the m&a space this morning. a big deal for square, buying the australian company after pay. this is a big installment loan company. square now trying to push into a space that has already become popular. they are paying about $29 billion u.s. for this company. some folks say that is not necessarily enough, so there's some concern that this might not get through. that is why you are seeing shares down about 4.5%. this is basically been -- in this installment phase. the stock had actually been underperforming since the ipo back in january, but it is getting a bit of a pop here, up in the premarket. this is with the big aerospace component company in the u.k. this is about $9 billion, but it is going to double th

lisa: are we actually going to see the u.s. ve involvement from that region or are these drone attacks we see going to be ongoing, and then they need to put more personnel on the ground to get more intelligence, then all of a sudden, did we really get out in the first place? prof. trubowitz: you know, who knows, but i think we will see now, because of the terrorist strike that killed u.s. servicemen and women, we are going to see the biden administration invest more time and energy in this here they really cannot afford to see this kind of thing happen. it really cannot happen on their watch. whether or not it can be done over the horizon, that is with drones and some special forces, i think that is the goal. i do not think there is a huge push anywhere for more boots on the ground, the time, with nationbuilding. the united states, american people -- when you look at the polls, they are pissed off about how the withdrawal was handled, but they are not upset about getting out of afghanistan. tom: thank you so much. peter trubowit

tom: lisa, the 18 month statement by john stoltzfus i think is a huge deal. there are very few people with that courage. lisa: going forward it will be very difficult have visibility. one of the aspects of that visibility is supply chain issues. we keep seeing in reports particularly through the auto companies throughout the day -- how do you factor this in? what is the time frame from when we start talking about -- stop talking about this? john: we have to take this in context. the big problem is when you're coming out of a major crisis, you get these periods of uncertainty, but you have to take a look and see how things have been done recently. just think back to where we were a year ago, or in march or april of last year. everybody was projecting very negatively because things were so uncertain. i go back to 2009, an early bull in 09. what played out is that we saw what the fed was doing. we looked at corporations that responded positively to it. the strength of the consumer. all of that gives you confidence and looking forward, but we are likely to be headed toward

thank you, keith. sec. him i let you see if i can see if i can lisa are much higher than he did this. beverly, me moisture and why? why? why, why so, you know, from what we felt like she this he called upon you to put you meet, she let him she, she didn't know what to do. my last movie to little puppet for me and now my mid thought of which will make it the cookie. why don't she potter truly do measurement of on is all function enemies to set coming. holly shop, newton, you could it was in law was 641 more with martha. as if i can a 15 year old while car as you can see the coming opinion of me. me quite a book like apology, a fan of se. front of it is your physical danger, the coma on my decline, a pasco mark long. this is jessica. she read the memoir due to me. i love him, walk what he ended tonight, or suggestion of experience in the here. funny club essence, when the capacity won. if possible, and i wanted to i yes, go still. the me, when you come back to my it will tell us why you don't forget that and i think is false. so my question, or if we offer great emergency supply, i'm go

lisa: markets are watching this and what it -- bipartisan infrastructure. : markets are watching this and what input-ish and it has on tax hikes. what does this mean for so many who do not want to have their names on tax hikes for the election? annmarie: once the budget resolution is passed in the house, all of these committees in the house and senate are going to start drafting up plans on how they can actually enact reconciliation. we are weeks, if not months away between what reconciliation will look like and the senate finance committee is going to be putting out a menu of potentially what the tax hikes are. there's going to be some on the progressive left that certainly want higher tax hikes, but they need to make sure they have every senator on board. you are going to have the likes of senator joe manchin of west virginia saying that tax hike is way too high, and even $3.5 trillion is too high. even if the house is able to pass through the budget resolution, it just sets off the time to get the details for reconciliation. they are going to be debating

yields are high by three basis points. lisa: we are talking about that 1.2 6% yield almost, and really i wonder how much this jobs report is going to inform that, especially after fed vice chair rich clarida came out and said it would just take a couple of meetings to really get a sense of fact that they could taper sooner. 8:30 a.m., this payrolls report. we have not been talking about income and salaries and how much we may actually start to see wages rise on a wholesale level. we have talked about labor force participation, but wages will remain in the forefront as an indicator for future inflation. at 10:00 a.m., president joe biden planning to speak. . about this labor market report how much does he do -- speak about this labor market report. how much does he plan to dovetail it into this weekend, the infrastructure bill? does he indicate some sort of cohesiveness in his party that has been increasingly bifurcated among the progressives and the centrists? i want to talk p.m. we get the real yield -- at 1:00 p.m. we get "th

markets are moving to this combined 1.8 million jobs over 60 days. lisaidea we had the upward revision to last month is that it looks much worse than it was. we are having a succession of positive jobs report, and how much this changes the dialogue is important. i also think what jill carey hall said was interesting. a lot of people are looking to consumer discretionary companies and how much they might have to pay their employees more as these wages increase. we are seeing this across the board. company after company offering benefits to bring people online and having to broaden out how much the increased pay. tom: we will keep this dialogue going. this is truly within this natural disaster we have all faced, a historic day. coming up, discussion with jonathan ferro. mohamed el-erian of queens college, cambridge for that important washington post column. jerome schneider will join us on bloomberg radio in moments. he is outstanding on the short-term dynamics of the bond market. stay with us. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ jonathan: is a as payrolls r

lisa, which essay are you going to read first? find it interesting the different nature of terrorism. there is domestic terrorism, cyber terrorism versus the physical brick and mortar, explosive terrorism that we experienced in 2001. all of these changing natures amid a world where the u.s. wants to pull back its international role. tom: brent crude almost to $70 a barrel. a huge move in the last two days. the equity market, there is a bid. wells fargo goes from cautious to upper single-digit optimism. that is of interest. futures up 8. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the british admit it is a longshot, but today they and other leaders will try to talk and president biden into leaving u.s. troops in afghanistan after august 31. the u.k. defense secretary says the problem is the security risks go up as the deadline grows nearer. nancy pelosi and moderate democrats resumed work on how to advance president biden's agenda. hours of negotiation yesterday failed to break a stalemate. plus he wants to hold off passing an infrastructure bill

lisa, we are not going to jackson hole. lisa: we are not. we are not going. they canceled it. this really is a symbol of where we are. i think the fact that they shifted this to a virtual meeting rather than an in person one shows how we are retracing our steps when it comes to the pandemic, and the ramifications of the economy are significant. tom: we are getting to the markets with a nice lift this morning, a real adjustment in real yield. all of the writing over the weekend led by mohamed el-erian in the financial times -- mohamed el-erian demands that powell regain the policy initiative. lisa: the idea going forward, how exactly are they going to face off with inflation and employment at a time of incredible uncertainty, when you have a delta variant that is doing well now but you have an economic recovery that has -- the other side of it. if the balance of risks are looked at right now, it is more on the inflationary shift to the upside, or is it more on a dragged out recover? i do not know the answer. tom: kailey leinz, you see it in yield, and we are doing a data check.

lisa: the soccer team. i remember that. tom: we are there as far as i'm concerned. you think about the market response if there is a return to remote schooling? tom: really? lisa: we were talking earlier, steve ricchiuto said he could say 10 year yield going below 1% if kids were not allowed to go back to school. at a certain point you have to get life back up and running. tom: along this line, moderna out moments ago, the third dose may be needed in the northern hemisphere this winter. lisa: interesting. tom: an on debate we will see. for somebody who grew up on booster shots, i'm like ok, you will need a booster shot. lisa: one thing we glossed over because of jobless claims data and that is very much front and center, the trade deficit fell to a record depending on how you look at it in the united states. this idea we have so much demand we have been imported more than more and we have not been exporting as much. that is significant in light of some of the trade issues that have come up that do not seem to be in effect in any way. tom: i think you are correct is

are earnings. jon: we will get more fed speak later. lisa, with my producer jamie, we are climbing the wall at 1:00. tom: you have a producer? jon: you don't have a producer? lisa: i have a producer. climbing the wall of worry especially as you get the david kostin type because at 4900 at the end of next year, if you have faith equity markets are going to continue to rally, why not buy every dip and why do we even have dips? we don't because everybody is looking toward time when it would be better for these companies. jon: pushing hide this morning come up 13 on the s&p. it lets give you the price action. your s&p 500, softer than yesterday's session. today, firmer and higher by .3%. bond market, yields unchanged, 1.1819 on a ten-year. adp report was soft. then vice chair clarity came out. we need to talk about that ism. that was the story at 10:00 a.m. eastern, at least for me, it did not get enough coverage. tom: i agree with that. it is real volatility in the limits paper of the system, the 10 year yield. they're going both ways. i am loo

lisa, sorry it is not normal given where we are and where rates are. everyone will tune in at 10:00 a.m. lisa: absolutely. one of the balance of risks when it comes to inflation perhaps overshooting as perhaps we heard from fed chair jay powell or them acting too soon and tightening when the economy needs a boost. this is a delicate balance and the market is saying the fed has it right. will he push back and worry more about inflation? tom: on radio and television, whether you are working from home, from the beach, in the office, we will have wonderful coverage. michael mckee with decades of work has put together a terrific set of voices to get us ready for the chairman's speech and then we will have coverage and move into the later morning on thoughts on what the chairman has brought. the petition here for bond geyser, is taper or rates. which are you focused on? lisa: i'm focus on what the reaction is in markets to any indication of what fed chair jay powell would like to see in the tapering. we can say they will probably taper at some point this year

but, it is not surprising since fires are around us. >> thank you, lisa. or athletic competition is returning to the bay area this weekend. the escape from alcatraz triathlon is that. abc seven news reporter cornell bernard has more. >> they are ready to jump off the boat and into the bay and embark on their escape. >> it is endurance mixed with a little insanity. >> run, have fun, make friends. >> final touches are being made to the escape from alcatraz triathlon, the 40th year for the infamous event binding a one mile swim, 18 mile bike ride, and eight mile run. the event was canceled in 2020. athlete emma pollen from johannesburg is eager to be compared to -- to be competing again >>. >>hopefully it will be an exciting race to watch. >> although the event is outdoors, covid protocols are happening. >> we have had the sanitizing stations, social distancing, and we are encouraging people to wear their mass around the event -- their i have all vaccinations necessary. >> triathlon crud plow is competing for the first -- triathlon -- triathlete crag clough --

right now we are not seeing that yet, but that is something to watch for the second half of the year. lisawhat are potential regulatory measures that you expect the pboc to consider an xi jinping to signal? leland: i think the most important thing will be signaling a continued pull away from a reliance on the united states or the west. all the headlines of the past couple of years h -- the past couple of years have been how the u.s. is considering throwing china off its markets and other aspects of the relationship. would beijing has to signal is that china can go its own way. that is not completely true, but that is the signal he has to be sending. china can do its own way as they enter a very politically sensitive near next year. jonathan: i am trying to understand what is happening on the ground in the country at the moment, and i am not getting a lot of information. the spread of the delta variant supposedly from the airport in nanjing and the restrictions we are starting to see, what are you hearing? leland: we have a china beige book covid tracker. we ask our corporate networks, we s

lisa: are high-yield bonds still a leading indicator for equities? saira: i think we are seeing they are going into different directions. we see that with widening credit spreads, with the 10 year not matching the optimism of the stock market. our view is that economic data is going to be what is the key winter to seattle -- the key winter -- the key winner. we could get the 30 year a positive returns post recession, usually not a strong,. but still positive. -- not as strong, but still positive. if there is a taper tantrum, we think that will remain on the market until after this period of volatility. saira malik, thank you. it is a very important conversation. we are trying to give you a mixed today of what we see, and we do this within the switch or the barbell, if you will, of emotion, from thursday last week to tuesday this week. i'm sorry, it is extraordinary. lisa: i am a flatter. in all honesty -- i am aflutter. in all honesty, there has been a discussion about a shift away from depression of the pandemic, and maybe we can go back to the way w

are getting vaccinated. will it be adequate? i don't know. lisa are you concerned about the uptick in other types of illnesses? have we seen the worst of it or are we on a pretty scary trajectory at this point? >> the whole moving to indoors and being exposed to individuals, we did see a surge during the winter months. the other challenge is people were not exposed to influenza and rotavirus -- those diseases are coming back with a vengeance and are higher numbers and out of the normal seasonal range due to our lack of previous exposure. tom: the trend here is we are all putting our masks back on. i think the mask is x percent are graduated -- -- are vaccinated and then there's the mix of a given society. should we be putting our masks back on? >> yes. absolutely. that is the cdc recommendation. it's time to put our masks back on. tom: give us the why please. >> there's a couple of different factors here. we know that preventing transmission is a two plot point. vaccine gives you some antibodies. it's not 100% effective. the second part is decreas

that's what you are seeing in the data. lisae changing nature of rick and mortar, what about the location of where they are coming back fastest? looking on manhattan streets, for example, there are still a lot of empty storefronts for rent. >> you have got to take new york as a bit of an anomaly to what's going on around the country. so much of what's happening in new york, 25% to 30% is tied to international tourism. which isn't there right now. shorter term, long term, it will come back. what you are seeing is a shift back to the mall. mall performance has been positive in the last couple of months. i think that it's going to be going back into some of the malls. diverging markets are performing well and these secondary cities are performing well. it's a time where this is a bit of a goldilocks retail environment. i have never seen, in years, almost every sector of the mastercard categories performing well. look at the numbers, 50% from before pandemic. luxury, jewelry. department stores are up 7%. you are looking at apparel g

are not worried like we were early on. we have a regional problem in the united states. lisartant are boosters to getting back to normal sees -- normalcy? israel just recorded its highest number of new covid cases despite that nation is one of the most highly vaccinated. dr. adalja: this is an and democrats for torrey virus and it will not go anywhere. i don't think third doses for healthy people will change the trajectory of the pandemic. it is first and second doses removing the ability of the virus to cause severe -- serious illness and hospitalization. if our goal is to chase mild viruses by boosting them once more, there is no offramp. i think we have to realize this does not magically go back into the bag. we have to manage this like other respiratory viruses we deal with year in and year out or we will never be able to move forward. i think that is something we have to really think about. lisa: do the health officials, the senior health officials in the united states agree with you, agree with that assessment of how to look at the risk of covid and live with it going f

we are talking about wealth redistribution in china as well. lisay is affecting and really throwing a crimp in the process for a lot of specific companies. if you are looking at the index level, it is being stabilized by these ballasts of cash flow. under the surface, there is still a lot of pain being priced in, which is fascinating given the sanguine nature of some of these price moves. jonathan: the equity market down 38 on the s&p, down 0.9%. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your bond market looks defensive, doesn't it? yields lower by three basis points to 1.2250%. euro-dollar -0.1%. crude a whole lot softer. we are negative again by 0.65%. on to be uti, $63.07. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ introducing xfinity rewards. our very own way of thanking you just for being with us. enjoy rewards like movie night specials. xfinity mobile benefits. ...and exclusive experiences, like the chance to win tickets to see watch what happens live. hey! it's me. the longer you've been with us... the

lisa: thanks. tom: the mets are going the other way. lisa: we don't need to talk about them. tom: steve cohen will spend $1 trillion today on the mets. jonathan: let's not talk about baseball. 1.2734% on tens. futures down 0.1%. what i show this morning. all that energy is overwhelming. it is too much. [laughter] from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: with the first word news, i'm la wright. a group of congressional democrats and republicans and president biden to delay full u.s. troop withdrawal from afghanistan. according to "the new york times," 44 lawmakers want to extend the august 31 deadline so the troops can help american citizens, allies, and vulnerable afghans leave the country. the president has authorized the deployment of 6000 troops to help with the evacuation. president biden will unveil a plan today that will give more americans corona vaccine booster shots -- americans coronavirus vaccine booster shots. the president's plan calls for high-risk groups including health care workers in the elderly to get a third shot as soon as next month. once again, target

are you just looking for a much wider spread? lisarket and a changed central banking philosophy. we are printing money and extending the balance sheet has not led to runaway data. are the central banks going to shrink their balance sheets? they will probably go bigger. probably they will stay negative and that is what a lot of people have been coming out with whether the united states or europe. i don't see the political goal on shrinking the balance sheets. jonathan: even when the additional bond purchases finished at the central banks they will have massive balance sheets and continue to reinvest. that will only stop once they start to raise interest rates. can anybody give me a gas when you think the ecb will raise interest rates and that process of unwinding will begin? lisa: will they ever raise interest rates? this is becoming the question also in the united states because they think they will hike rates marginally. what do they have left to fight the next downturn? jonathan: it's been 10 years since the ecb hiked interest rates

lisa, to me it is worse today than it was yesterday. that is the trend we are on. ere is a big problem with respect to the transmission and the fact vaccinations are not preventing transmission in some cases. it definitely prevents a bad illness. there is a pall over consumer sentiment we felt friday and we felt on an ongoing basis. it is not over and we seem to be further away. tom: in new york city is about showing your past to get into a restaurant to prove you been vaccinated. for more serious in states, critically to the south. barry ritholtz has been following all of this with bloomberg opinion. he joins us right now. i thought your note was wonderful about the worst of this now, given where valuations in the market are. is our new correction 18% or more? barry: i don't know. the key difference between dealing with the delta variant today and what we went through a year and a half ago when covid first started crushing the economy and crashing the market, we are kind of out of trillion dollar bullets. there will not be a cares act four to rescue us again. it lo

tom: frame where yields are right now we had a guest on recently lisa abramowicz who has been really od about expanding the range of the 10 year yield. is there a collar that you are paying attention to with the u.s. 10-year? geoffrey: it all goes back to the potential growth. these longer-term rates. are bond yields basically repositioning expectations? we should not expect longer-term inflation to be high anyway, so basically, markets have long-term growth expectations. 10-year yields are reflecting that. if it is economic or psychological, the tail wags the dog there. i don't think that is the right approach. we should identify where potential growth is, then maybe yields can start to pick up. we are just not there yet. lisa: tool short of a visit. tom: thank you so much. we really appreciate it. in that interview 10 or 12 days ago, the idea of where is the potential gross domestic product, and if we get that technology left, we can be more optimistic. lisa: it goes to the labor market. aluminum prices at the highest in 10 years, is not going to lead necessarily to a higher 10-year

they are beyond data dependent, and i'm sorry, the most important thing on august 27 is the jobs report. lisa: what data are they looking at? is it all jobs? tom: this is a loaded question. there's the hard data, the soft data, but certainly the labor dynamics of this nation, they've got to be more front and center than they have ever been before. lisa: the one thing people say that they are watching very closely is the stock market. should the stock market disrupted in any material way, any hiccup will make them reverse any potential tapering or tightening in any capacity. is that built into markets at this point, the people who you're speaking to? taylor: you are certainly not seeing it right now. i would argue that stephen stanley nailed it at the bottom of the last hour, really hinting at some things you and i have been talking a lot about. what is $100 billion doing? what is the financial risk at this point? it may be some of the equity markets. i harken back to the bank of korea saying the risks are outweighing, and that is why they are raising rates. lisa: i'm glad you mentioned the ba

[laughter] lisa: we are at 4509, remember. tom: i hear thundering silence. everyone is upgrading to say the least and we make jokes about it, but it's the chase after the market. taylor: and that's a good point, reflationary trade with yield so low, if you told him where the s&p 500 would be he would have thought they were a lot higher. i consistently heard price targets on the 10 year yield might head northwards but it's hard to get there with some of these technical factors underway. jonathan: the strata -- tom: the strategies we heard from jon ferro is that if you don't get a wicked low yield, stocks go up in their we are with a 1.30%. lisa: that's the question i have. tom: when john comes back? that's a question i have. [laughter] lisa: and did he find the dalai lama? jonathan: he really went to tibet. -- tom: he really went to tibet on a camel. lisa: i honestly have no idea. [laughter] going forward, it will be interesting to see if taper is more of a concern for market. tom: jobs day on friday, full coverage on friday morning reagan stay with us, much

lisa teachers are givers. they have a calling, they're not doing this, they get wealthy. and even with all that this pandemic has put them through. we've seen heart warming stories about teachers who are real champions. so make the pitch . why to become a teacher? teaching. as you said, it is a calling, it's an art as well as the science in pedagogy. and i want to see the community appreciate teachers in a sense that, oh, i can't wait to be a teacher. it's a wonderful thing to be a teacher. and just really quickly all, and let me go into a little bit of time before the pan demik. if you walked into a room, say you were networking, you had some professional, is there some friends there? and let's say a ball or walked into the room. oh, we just adore the athletic ability of this professional athlete, but let a teacher walk into that same room and now it may not happen all the time, but you know for that frequently. oh a teacher. oh, well, being good if you do that, i couldn't. i couldn't do that, it couldn't be me. so we all know that teaching can be challenging. but let's

lisa: it is ridiculous and it was something that was assembled in days. some of the specifics arey important, particularly from a market standpoint. jonathan: what were some of your highlights? lisa: this is what people in the market are going to be doing. there is something having to do with energy provisions, subsidizing everything from nuclear power plants the carbon capture and storage. people are going to be looking at that kind of stuff. also low-cost internet access, transportation. you have to look at the energy, the concept of where this money is going to be flowing. that is the specifics. which regions are getting more? these are the things people want to know. jonathan: i have the confidence you have that they will be moving -- that they will be reading through this. get the violins out for people at goldman. first year analyst that goldman will now earn at least $110,000. the second year will be paid $125,000. first year associates will go to $150,000. lisa: honestly, people say this is wall street and cry because they're learnings -- earnings a little coming out of sc

yields are higher by a couple of basis points. lisareally important to see a much moment and there is behind this move. at 8:30 a.m., we get that july cpi report. the expectation and a broad survey of economists is for 5.3 percent year-over-year consumer price increases. bloomberg economics expects an increase to 5.5%. the issue i think you are right to point out is the specific component. it is not just rent. it is more broadly, how broad are the price increases? that will factor into the decision also, perhaps with president biden weighing in on the oil prices this morning. we get raphael bostic and esther george perhaps talking about when taper talks start to heat up, to pay back some of the $120 billion of monthly bond purchases by the federal reserve. at 1:15, president biden planning to speak about that human infrastructure plan. the outline was passed yesterday by democrats. how much will he emphasize inflation and try to put a damper on it? this does seem to be an increasing concern of theirs, and the idea that the administrati

lisa, we are in mid august. september is on its way. that is typically the time in october when we see the worst fires in the state. lisa: we have been saved by our stea o fwer d have original of high-pressure that has allowed for some of the wind to lighten up and to trap the wildfire smoke from the upper atmosphere down toward the sophist. it's also allowing to drift to the bay. here's a look at doppler seven where the fog was evident among the coast out over the bay. look at the hazy conditions to the north. they are getting a little bit closer to the bay area and that's all due to a wind shift. look at the air quality right now around the east bay and south bay. looking at the haze, even at ba. those upper elevations. the bay area doing etter than the folks in the north bay from northern california. hazy conditions in the mountains. this is what it looks like right now. 9:00 where you can see the darker shades to the north of us. as we get to the afternoon, a very little change will occur. by tomorrow, this all gets swept to the east

lisa: well, the opposite. you are doing great. think the bigger picture here is that so far, it has been considered a tactical play that has to do with issuance. corporations are doing phenomenally well. that seems to be the feeling across the board, and yet the fundamental economy still has some pretty big potholes. that is sort of the needle that fed chair powell has to thread this morning. tom: we will see. michael mckee will have a terrific set of presidents of the fed. i am thrilled to say he will begin strong was mr. bostic of atlanta. mr. bostic on fire this morning with comments about the math forward for the presidents and governors, and indeed, the leadership of the fed. let me do a data check right now and allow lisa to get in the golf cart and get over to the wall. dow futures up 86. the vix, 17.85. the yield coming in a little bit from one point 36%. some real angst in the market yesterday after tragedy in kabul. 1.3 4% on the 10-year gilts. brent crude gets my attention. gold wandering near $1800 an counts. the euro

i am not sure they are immune from policy. lisaple would argue the reason why treasury yields were lower than they were this year is because of policy. because we are talking about a multi trillion dollar infrastructure plan and that got whittled lower and lower. and the chances are that the bipartisan bill is likely to pass. you start talking about what is the fiscal impulse? it is smaller than we thought earlier and it is going to fade. a lot of people are going to point to that for the underperformance of certain cyclical areas. tom: the parlor games through july and august has been to recalibrate and measure that fit. jp morgan announced that today and many more to come. lisa: there is a question, someone said last week, i am forgetting the guest who said the treasury is becoming a policy tool. i love that, because that is the truth. when you have a central bank that is buying a significant proportion of the debt, it is what they do that determines very much of the levels. the question is, going forward, with their reaction fun

we are in a position where we are in the second year in the in digestive. like 2001-2010. lisadifference this time is that rates are that much lower and the reaction function in markets every time there is a hick up and stocks in risk assets is to flood back into treasury. the idea you are talking about that any selloff will be predicated on higher yields is sort of challenged. how do you get around this reaction function of market participants? tony: one market? if we are talking about the selloff in the s&p 500 index, i think that comes with high rates. have seen it with lower rates. here is something that blew my mind when i look at it a few weeks ago. it is the initial move off of the low coming after recession in the 10-year note yield. the 10-year note yield rises as economic recovery begins. at-year-old -- that teal has never been surpassed in the past four recessions. coming out of the 1982 recession, a bump up in rates but we would never surpassed that pump up. after the next recession, after the.com bust, same thing -- after the dotcom bus, same thing. we have never b

you are watching abc 7 mornings live. lisa: goodsa: good we had better weather yesterday with the air quality improving and temperatures coming down. today, there is fog not only in the north bay, visibility 1.5 miles in santa rosa and cloudy skies in san jose. looking at air quality now, good in the north bay. moderate elsewhere. a break with better air quality right now in the sierra nevada. things are going to get much worse with a red flag warning going into effect. mid 50'wark.you noticed the coon yesterday, getting more pronounced today. looking at temperatures coming up about 70 degrees through the bay noontime. 80's will arrive in lent, but by the afternoon, temperatures top out in the low 70's in oakland. low 80's in san jose and still low 80's inland with a lemoore haze in the livermore valley. >> now to the developing news out of louisiana, the damage following hurricane ida is now being described as catastrophic. the entire city lost power overnight. a flashlight emergency was declared. as the sun is coming up, we

are doing. jonathan: the big question is can they continue to keep his big margins insulated. lisawe were speaking with gina martin adams yesterday. she was saying people have underestimated how much margin pressures have come in with s&p 500 company earnings in the second quarter. basically, those margin pressures are increasingly more than she expected. the other question i have is how much does this reflect economic strength, and how much of these unique stories? jonathan: would you like to get to the bank of england rate decision. i know you have been excited. interest rates unchanged at 10 basis points. the asset purchase program targets are unchanged, too. the vote was split, though, 7-1. just one dissent from michael saunders on the asset purchase target. 7-1 to keep the bond buying target unchanged. so just a little more dissent coming through over on fred needle street -- on thread needle street. tom: do they have the power of chairman powell? do they have the same oomph? jonathan: they have the same approach, apparently. they will fall back close to target. that sounds li

you are watching abc seven mornings live on abc7, hulu live , and wherever you stream. lisagood morning. we are starting out with temperatures on the comfortable side and low clouds and fog. a good onshore flow, but things are going to change toward the afternoon, where the onshore flow is not going to be a strong. it is 56 with the fog in oakland. this is a compressed marine layer at about 1000 feet. upper-level winds are shifting. it is 50 in santa rosa. that will allow a little smoke to drift into parts of our east bay. by 9:00, you are in the 70's. by noon, mid 80's to low 90's, comfortable along the coast. even at about 2:00 into 5:00 -- that is friday. we are looking at numbers that are even hotter. we will talk about the heat climbing through the next few days in a few minutes. kumasi: more than 90 wildfires are raging in the west. in california conditions are , hampering efforts to battle these blazes. jobina the desk tracking all of is at the desk tracking all of this. jobina: 16 fires in california are considered major fires right now. new video shows the intense c

are sensitive to even relatively small changes. sure, maybe the first 10 basis points the market could ignore. beyond that the market would switch back. lisa: andrew, dumb question wednesday, why buy bonds? why not just have cash? andrew: i don't think it's a dumb question. we are underweight bonds. we forecast worse returns than cash. i think where there is an important asterisk further out the yield curve, i think you have more and more buyers buying those bonds for regulatory reasons not total return reasons. they are buying it to match a liability. that probably does give more support to the longer end of the bond market, corporate bond market than might be there for economic reasons. on morgan stanley's forecast, bonds will underperform cash over the next 12 months. we don't think investors should buy them. tom: thank you so much. andrew sheets with us. nice update there from morgan stanley. i know mike wilson, his colleagues some real caution about this great bull market. lisa, i think the end note is really important. he speaks there about beginning to frame up what september 3 looks like and then trying to figure out in some way wh