i'm joined by livia paggi, head of political risk at gpw, who's an expert on russia and belarus.rticularly in creating dialogue, both with russia and the eu. that is an interesting strategy as they are trying to balance both sides, ensure that they get support. the code on the eu to recognise the elections but at the same time making direct appeals to vladimir putin saying they are willing to collaborate with them and that makes them a very powerful group. what are the signs from russia? russia has been very cautious and rightfully so. they have been in talks, obviously, with lukashenko, there have been in talks, obviously, with lu kashenko, there has have been in talks, obviously, with lukashenko, there has been no real indication they want him to go immediately. they know it could be very dangerous to intervene, they could create another ukraine. economically, russia does not have the ability right now to sustain a war in belarus or the popular support to do so. we have to keep in mind that these protests are not pro—western or anti—russia. in some ways, it could be much more b

livia paggi is the head of political risk at gpw, a global risk analysis company.ia has been taking a cautious approach. they know that it could be very dangerous to intervene, that they could create another ukraine. economically, russia does not have the ability right now to sustain a war in belarus, nor is there the popular support to do so. and also we have to keep in mind that these protests are not pro—western or anti—russia. so in some ways, it could be much more beneficial for russia to be on the sidelines and have these dialogues with the opposition. well, a little earlier, i spoke with maryia sadouskaya—komlach, a journalist from belarus. this reaction was very much expected, but the essence of it makes us raise eyebrows, like so late? the police violence was happening all of last week in belarus fair the fair the fai ten last. mck’bgt‘fhtfiéhéswtfiftfi to 

livia paggi is the head of political risk at gpw, a global risk analysis company.n taking a cautious approach. they know that it could be very dangerous to intervene, that they could create another ukraine. economically, russia does not have the ability right now to sustain a war in belarus nor have the popular support to do so. and also we have to keep in mind that these protests are not pro—western or anti—russia. so in some ways, it could be much more beneficial for russia to be on the sidelines and have these dialogues with the opposition. i'm joined now by maryia sadouskaya—komlach, a journalist from belarus. thank you forjoining us. what do you make of the european union reaction? thank you. this reaction was very much expected but the form and essence of it makes us raise eyebrows, why so late. the police violence was happening all of last week in belarus and it was credit that elections were not free and fair also last week. —— it was pretty clear. they waited for ten days presumably for the third part of the message which is to confirm that it wants to eng