remember, one of the things that happened last year is that lobal g.d.p. measured in nominal numbers contracted, and inflation went to zero. some of that has reversed a bit with emerging market do better this year. we have had a bit of a rally in a number of emerging market currencies, giving the markets some relief. the emerging economies are actually not in terrible shape. that points to somewhat stronger prices into the summer. but this market is going to be a bit of a w throughout the course of a year, a see-saw. i don't see a stable price. certainly the next couple of weeks are going to be important as well. >> are you saying the end of cantengo and the start of backwardation? >> i am not calling for that this year, but we are getting pretty close. i certainly see backwardation next year. we have inventories gross next year. when you of that draw down in global inventories, then you have the start of backwardation, meaning the value of ole in inventory is negative. that is the market signal and that happens when demand is running ahead of supply. we a