the lockhart plan. when people think of insurance they think that they're in good hands with allstate as plain vanilla insurer as it get, but allstate reported last night and it turns out the results were anything, but plain vanilla. you could say it's rocky road. as allstate said an increase in hours driven caused auto accidents to spike and they weren't really ready for it. i wonder whether text-happy drivers didn't play a role in this either. we got the best of both worlds. too much driving for -- and that was caused by lockhart's comments. investors were seek cover in the drugstores and it's a popular hiding place. what a streak they put on which is why it seems natural to buy cvs right into the earnings report which is what happened yesterday. oops, the pharmacy portion of the company rocked and people didn't like the rest of the numbers in front of the store including ones that would have been better if tobacco hadn't been pulled off their shelves so the target fell close to $3 and at one point it

connell: goes back then, we were talking about the lockhart comments earlier, jack.hen, it really does go back to the federal reserve like all discussions seem to this hour. >> i think so. on oil price, when i don't know the answer to something i steal from someone who seems to. our economics editor at "barron's" has been right about the falling price of oil all year. last thing he wrote a year ago, could see a temporary trading bottom about 20 bucks a barrel before rebounding back where we are now. if you're out there as investor you're bargain hunting, energy has gotten cheaper. yes, it has gotten cheaper but i'm waiting for more sign of capitulation in the energy market than i see here. companies will have to cut their dividends, something like that. things will have to go more wrong. connell: $20, that sound -- what do you think, steve? >> who knows. we would all be on the "forbes" rich list. there is huge discrepancy, traditional patterns of trading between oil and gold. could you see oil going up and gold has to come down from these levels. $30 for ounce of gol

late yesterday, lockhart says the drop in oil prices caused the inflation outlook.d has said it must be confident inflation is headed towards its 2% goal before raising those rates. peter fisher blackrock investment institute says the fed has a dilemma on its hands. lauren: productivity is low in the u.s. have developed economies. that puts it in a very spot. it doesn't seem quite strong enough and so we are caught in between. maria: he makes the point. how healthy is the u.s. economy and mass of the federal market committee and official members have to decide. the next meeting between september 16th. lauren: shares of chinese internet alibaba followed although it ipo price. twitter also below its ipo price. not a good sign for new stock offerings. we will take a closer look coming out. another drop in chinese stocks. traders setting up for a volatile day on wall street. despite the drop yesterday, u.s. stock market futures rising in overnight trading. you can see the dow popping 476-point this morning. s&p and nasdaq up sharply. you are watching "fbn:am," your firs

brendan: if you search on the terminal for stories with the word "lockhart" in them -- dennis lockhart speaking yesterday -- australian dollar rises, gold falls the whole world shifted when he spoke. tom: this is a chart i have done for years. this is trade-weighted broad dollar. this is china. here is a rubin dollar, and here is the latest dollar move. all you need to know in logarithmic august is this is the move of the rubin dollar. you can bring this right over and it shows you how much we have done so far of the so-called strong dollar. brendan: you talked about it is not just a dollar story, it is all of the various crosscurrents. does this story shifts two years from now when mario draghi make the difference? olivia: that is the challenge for janet yellen. this is not transitory. tom: right now it is a dollar story. jon ferro is in london. a strong sterling as well. this is about yellen and carney. what is the distinction between those two central bankers? jon: the only major two central banks on the planet thinking about hiking rates. very different in terms of action. the mark

lockhart comments last week it to market. market is sensitive to this. really what the fed would inically do in past i called the communication cycle we're been in with the fed is we would know well in advance, probably a month ago that september was the date. we are not sure of that. the market is 60% sure. i think that is too high of audits. erik: ok. --i think that is too high of odds. the last time we were in a tightening cycle, alan greenspan was the fed president, and there was nothing like the transparency that started under ben bernanke and has now been transferred to janet yellen. >> ben bernanke was more communicative. i would say you would know under timing and the things much better.

at mays dennis lockhart 2:15. -- don't miss dennis lockhart at 2:15.e katrina, we will get an update on the economic recovery. ♪ matt: welcome back. i am matt miller with mark crumpton. let's get to julie hyman for the big stories of the market day so far. i guess volatility has been the story for the nasdaq. julie: we have been talking a lot about that. the nasdaq is green was again. i want to talk about the big market stories of the day and of the week. it has been quite a week for the major averages. you can cbs a be and dow are still negative -- you can see the s&p and the dow are negative. take a look at the sector moves. i want to talk about how they have done as well. what we're seeing today has mirrored the move we've seen this week. energy is the top performing group today and utilities are the worst performing group today. that is what we have seen for the week as well. take a look. you can see the energy index up more than 4%, it's best week since about february. utilities down 5.5 percent, sharp losses for that group. when you look at the u

the data supporting lockhart's comments. here's the cnbc rapid update.verage tracking comments. last week we reported q2 gdp from the government. we've had subsequent revisions. construction spending factory orders. now we're up to 2.9. the third quarter we got the first piece of data auto sales running long. also 2.9 here. with a range of 1.9 to 3.0%. these are very early days for the third quarter. just the strong auto numbers in. some economists see them. take a look at this chart. its worse moment reported negative 07. 2.6. now at 2.9. the cnbc rapid update first read coming in at 2.9%. and then here's the fed where they are on their outlook there. they're at 1.9% for the whole year. we don't have to do much to get above that fed forecast and meet their forecasts. still much data to come. friday's jobs report along with the august jobs report we'll get the first week of september could be key as will several inflation reports between now and september. 16th to 17th meeting. kelly, if the data hold up it should be enough to prompt the fed to act perha

dennis lockhart lighting a fuse under that one yesterday here in europe. to the wall street journal. according to him, he would need to see significant deterioration in the economic data to get him to say they won't move. question is how many friends does dennis lockhart have on the fomc when they go to vote in september? what you'll notice, though, is that the euro got hit against the dollar. sterling not so much. when i bring up euro/sterling, weaker again down by a quarter of 1%. we have our own rate hike debate in this country, here in the city of london. a bank of england decision. forecast, minutes. governor mark carney speaking as well. what will he say that could equally light the fuse turned pound as we go into that meeting. it is not just the u.s. that might have a strong currency problem. back to you. francine: jon, thanks so much. jonathan ferro with the latest on the markets. manus: tom keene joins us now from europe. you want to talk about the dollar. we had george magnuson here from u.b.s. the dollar is in the foothill turnovers next big mov

matt mentioned dennis lockhart comments about september rate hike. he said if that is very disposed to the september timeline. he said shorter horizon inflation numbers. prices down and yields higher. 10 year yield at two point or percent. quick check on commodities. at two pointte 24%. copper coming off of a six-year low. -- rain in chile has halted production. matt: could be of what we would call it that cap bounce. if you were cynical, you might see it that way. top stories crossing the bloomberg terminal. warren buffett has been one of his biggest deals ever. berkshire hathaway agreed to buy precision cast parts. the price a little more than $37 billion, most of that cash. earlier we talked to a partner at gardner russo, his firm owns almost $1.5 billion of berkshire shares. the cash flow is how steady it should be. they have an order backlog they can map out, probably for 15 years. yes, the dollar makes a difference, but when you are placing order for an airline, they probably will end up going the wing because of the certainty it is the best in

dennis lockhart gives september a ringing endorsement. euro sterling done by 70 pence.itting next to me forecasting 65 pence in the next 12 months. euro eris sterling bullish. i will be talking about commodities in just a bit. bring crude act through $50 a barrel. those are the big market moves this morning let's get some of the big stock stories with caroline hyde. you just talking about the general is the best performance morning. this is a company funding rates in the equity side of the business. the highest profit -- you said it in some eight years. there also promising more cost cuts. thank you very much. investors like what they hear. and here and united kingdom. another one of their top performers. again it has to do with their earnings. the biggest manager of u.k. pensions. the numbers to the analyst estimates. they are lowering in the cash in the your sing that inflows up 62%. they're down on the downside and it is all about oil down by almost six cents this morning. this is a refining company not living up to expectations on profit or sales. lower sales volume

lockhart made comments to the wall street journal -- let's bring in kevin adams.t he is suggesting they are close to a rate increase. >> certainly. the question is whether obese september or november. they seemed to be on the hawkish side of the fed. he is much closer now. on the face of it it has been much higher for the rate rise in september. 225 or 335. that kind of number. that would give the fed a green light for a rate rise in september. anna: because of all of the conversation of whether it would be september or december, there will be a lot of attention. there always is. what should we be looking for us to mark is at the wages or component? what will be decided? >> a look at indicators. the chart is a useful thing to look at. also when you look -- all of the leading indicators are now above where they were in the previous boom. it is pretty much up there. it is not up to the previous peaks. the keynote was payrolls. the latest data has increased up to a level in which it has fallen back a bit. there are more forward-looking indicators. it is point to labo

fed governor lockhart suggesting that september's on the table for a rate hike. china, frankly, does not look good. >> let me just stop you one second. >> go ahead. >> it's fed president lockhart and fed governor powell who was on the very network and didn't want to go as far as lockhart himself did. >> and that's -- >> the jury's still out. >> of course the jury's out. the jury's out until it actually happens. this may be a fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, but for somebody, they usually dissemble. they don't say what they're going to do. for lockhart to say strongly as he did or imply as strongly as he did that september, barring some major disruption in economic signals when they're going to do it, is real news. that's a real signal. anyway, to my bigger point here, is if you're going to be invested in the mark, which by the way i am, i'm a believer in the market, what you have to believe is the strength of the u.s. economy is big enough, it's strong enough, to power through china and power through one rate hike, which will probably be a

dennis lockhart told "the wall street journal" that only a significant deterioration in economic momentum could convince him to wait longer. lockhart is one of the first officials to speak publicly since the policy meeting last week. >>> a hostile bid in the drug sector late today as a result of rejected and unsolicited $30 billion offer from shire. if the deal were to happen, it would create a leading biotech company focused on rare diseases, the bid or word of it sent shares soaring. bertha coombs has more on the drama in the drug sector. >> reporter: only public for a month, but what a month it has been. the bio science company was spun off from baxter international. during the first earnings call as an independent company last week, ceo hansen said the firm was open to acquisitions as an acquirer. >> e are hungry for m & a but we are not desperate. i think we will use the discipline making sure that the strategy is aligned, the financials are there as well as we can integrate the organization. >> reporter: but it looks like they might now be the target, not the buyer. shire pharmaceut

liz: dennis lockhart, you had james bullard of st.aying, okay, we're ready, let's do it. we're no longer in an emergency mode of zero to a quarter of a percent rate. jeff, do you agree, is it september. >> i do agree september's very possible. the headline should be coming this fall, the end of zero interest rate policy. i think they could lift the fed funds rate 25 basis points. and the thing that lockhart also said that i thought was interesting, jon, was the cumulative progress. if you get stuck looking month to month, you can maybe get disappointed when you only see 215,000 jobs. but cumulative progress, the 11.1 million jobs created since the end of the recession, that's more jobs than created in any expansion on the last three before the first rate hike. so they're overdue, if you're looking at the jobs market for that liftoff. liz: go ahead, jon. >> the other thing that i think was really important today is the unemployment rate. so you could look at it and say it didn't change, it was 5.3%, why should that matter? it matters b

what is your thoughts on these comments from lockhart and fisher? >> there is a couple of things going on. fisher actually wasn't asked and didn't speak directly to the question of rates and when they're going up. but he did point to a problem that the fed has, which is that even though the job market is doing much better, it is closer to what he calls full employment. inflation is very low. that is a problem for the fed. i think that speaks to the dilemma they face as they go to make that decision in september. lockhart reiterated something he told us last week which is that he is getting close to being ready to do this. september is very live in his mind but not everybody in that room is going to be ready to do it. so i think we could have some fireworks in september. it will be an interesting month to be reporting about it certainly. i think markets could have more ups and downs before it happens. >> that's interesting. austan, let me bring you in. 25 basis point in september. more and more people are on board with that. you have comments from fi

mckee is there with dennis lockhart, the president of the atlanta federal reserve. michael: the morning session has concluded. there was a lot of theoretical talk about how you measure inflation and what central banks should do about that. actual policy question about what to do about inflation because it is too low at the moment. the forecast are that it will start going up. the question is fast enough that you are ready to move now. face is whether i have to see tangible evidence. if i have to see that evidence in the data or whether i can rely more on the forces at work in the economy given me confidence that in time, inflation will rise to target. michael: there was a lot of talk this morning about the difficulty of missed and guessing where inflation is going to be 18 months out. >> at the moment it is even more complicated. inflation is going to be affected eye things like oil appreciationncy and such. it may be more difficult to read the true underlying trends at work. say with thek and economy operating as it is in a very acceptable manner, the solid.ance is

we will be speaking with dennis lockhart. president of the federal reserve rank of atlantic.e a look at some of the top stories crossing the bloomberg terminal. we begin with were sad stories of desperate migrants dying while try to get to europe. the bodies of why than 100 migrants are being recovered from the mediterranean. they drowned when their boat capsized. up to 200 are dead. three people are being held in the connection with several migrants. greece's president has dissolved parliament ahead of elections set for september 20. the parliament will reconvene october 1. the economy grew slightly faster in the second quarter than forecast. the economy grew .9 of 1%. greece reached a deal on its third international bailout. there is jubilation in sierra leone as the net -- less notable location has left the hospital. her departure could mark the end of the epidemic. the woman most likely contracted the virus from her son who died last month. if she tests negative for 42 days the world health organization will declare the country ebola free. kim jong-un sounds like he is re

reserve: the federal dialing back expectations after dennis lockhart said they china slowdown and oilicating the outlook. statement,eduled bill dudley said the case for an early rise is becoming less convincing. prime the outgoing greek minister has ruled out leading a coalition with opposition parties. next month'so win snap election. part itsays his syriza would not put together a government with parties that supported him. tsipras did not rule out a government of national unity, just that he would be prime minister. francine: let's check in on the markets. 10:30 london time. we had quite a lot of breaking news. headline the china explains the aggressive rally on the shanghai composite. a rally fueled by soothing words , pushing backley potentially closing a window on a rate hike. europe, thearket in dax up three percentage points. in positive territory for the week. ftse 100 in london up 2 percentage points. almost every stock in positive territory. s pushing higher, wti back through $40. in china, we were up 3%. into the close we had a rally and finished up over 5%. a five-day rou

>> someone call lockhart. that guy is a broken record. i was so glad stanley fisher. >> making it stronger? >> the dollar is going to go through the moon now. >> didn't that used to be a good thing? >> king dollar. there when you need him, yeah. >> this reserve currency thing, sara eisen talked about it. this thing that happened over the weekend where the imf, i just think that -- they can do whatever they want right now. remember, the chinese stock market was up several times last night. they kept moving it up and down. the chinese communists are just using the $180 billion worth of treasuries they sold and they're putting them to work in a lot of strange ways. they want that market higher and they were willing to sacrifice anything, including u.s. imports which aren't doing well, and you'll see a lot of our companies that do business over there, stocks will be down today. >> paper tieger? >> they only build aircrafts over there. >> it's growing a lot faster than our own economy. >> there was a debate this morning ant yum suddenly disadv

fed comments for the last three weeks, fed's lockhart, the one guy seen as a balanced member of this fed, signals two to three weeks ago that hey, we have to go no matter what. and now that's a little scarier. >> grasso was down on the trading floor in the midst of all this chaos. we broke another key level in the s&p 500 as he outlined on friday. grasso, at this point what are you watching? >> we did break that level. let's just talk about a couple levels. talk about how we got here and where we're going to go from here. guy flagged that level again, the 1820 level. so that's this level right here. that's your level back from october. so where do you come up with these levels? this is where guys draw their marks. 1820, you go up here and you go to 2134. all-time high. guys draw their fibonacci levels from there. guys -- this was the 200-day moving average roughly there. we broke it by 4 1/2%. so when you do the same velocity of that break, you came up with that number we talked about on friday. we broke that. the key level on friday, 1970. i said if that level didn't hold it was goi

dennis lockhart made a very good point and steve made a very good point. the prevailing view at the table is if you move, you move slowly and deliberately. that doesn't mean a consequential number of significant moves that follow. you still have uber accommodative monetary policy. bankers need net interest margin to lend out. every banker wants to see a rate increase. there are different forces here. the deflation in energy prices, crop prices, food prices benefits the consumers and we are a consumer-oriented society. so there are are pluses and minuses here. open market committee members do not react to one day's action on wall street or even a correction. they'll do what's right for the sake of the economy, whether they are hawks or doves or trying to figure out how to be wise owls and remove themselves from excessive accommodate. one thing i would say in the reaction i've been seeing recently, is the fed going to raise rates in september after lockhart's speech, after vice chair fisher's speech? it does demonstrate people are hooked on the heroin of qua

another three or four minutes with dennis lockhart of the atlanta fed.you so much for your insights today. back to you. melissa: thank you so much. want to bring in dan mitchell, senior fellow at cato institute. jason and jack are back as well. dan, start with you, what's your reaction, what did you hear there? >> the thing that encouraged me he recognized it's not the job of the fed, not the role of monetary policy to try to fix problems in the so-called real economy. if we're worried about a bad tax system or overregulation, if we think the burden of government is too high, tinkering with interest rates, have the fed do a tight money policy, those don't fix those problems. that's encouraging. on the other hand, i still heard him saying yes, we're going to try to fine tune the economy. that's how you get trouble. melissa: jack, that's what i heard, too. it wasn't a we've committed to, this stick to it sort of thing, they said we're re-evaluating, been a rough two weeks, tumultuous is the word he used. >> stop treating this like it's physics, they don't

lockhart?> yesterday. >> unless something really changes. >> right. >> so the ipo would be -- he dissuades him -- but excuse me -- >> quarter point. >> i was on the set yesterday. >> so interest rates will be a quarter point. >> no, actually, they will be 37 basis points. it's something you have to get a little bit used to. >> with china now? >> no, so you have to get used to this. >> i'm worried. >> people are waiting for it. when you come here -- >> the current fed funds rate is like 12 basis points. when the fed moves it will move by 25. 25-12 is 37. >> 25-37, there's no difference. it's almost 0. >> okay. we'll discuss later. >> disney, actually i was just -- >> just don't ask me any questions, okay? >> i'm looking at the chart of disney. >> a three or four year chart versus the s&p. any of those charts versus the s&p. >> it's going to look good, right? >> it's just going to tell the story that obviously cord cutting, the daunting future that all media companies, especially cable that they'

atlanta lockhart president saying there's a high bar right now to not acting in september. he says the economy is ready for the first rate hike in nine years. he also says it will take a significant deterioration in the economic picture for me to be disinclined to move ahead, and we were just talking about this that some of the economic data has gotten better, has met and in some cases exceeded the fed's own forecast for growth in 2015 with the jobs report being very significant, but right now dennis lockhart, a guy you watch, very much a centrist, neither a dove nor a hawk, somebody we follow to see which way the fed winds are blowing, and they seem to be blowing towards that september rate hike. tyler? >> what does the market say about this? >> we've been around 40%, 50% for that september rate hike or more -- more -- and higher for december. depends on how you read it, but it's been out there a little bit under 50%, tyler. >> a little bit under 50%. a curious choice of language, that it's a high bar to not act. that's sort of an inside-out waive saying it's a low bar to

. >> dennis lockhart indicates it could delay the hike as they forecast the lift off to march of next year. >> and china's economy bottomed out. brent and wti climb back gains after settling at the lowest level in 2009. >> it was a rough session overnight. housing a big part of the story. we're just hearing from one of the luxury home builders reporting q-3 earnings of 36 cents. that's well below the analyst expectations of 49 cents. revenue was to come in around $1.03 billion and revenue coming in line with expectations. we should point out the stock closing lower yesterday following the broader market sell off losing about 4.7% but year to date up about 5.7%. responding to the housing data over the past couple of months but back to the market sell off. the dow seeing a 4,000 point move in one session. we just captured the highs, lows and where the dow closed. at one point in the beginning of trade we saw the dow down by around 1,000 points. some traders sending me pictures just showing traders clued so their screens and cnbc saying what kind of ride are we in for? we saw the dow com

that's what dennis lockhart had to say over the course of the past two days. i don't think it's that big of a deal. with all of the economists and strategists, smart people think that the fed is almost universally going to go in december. i'm still not fully convinced. contract,ed futures at the flip of a coin, still another payroll number -- my sense is that -- i will put it this way. previously, i would be 20% they would move. i'm now closer to 50/50. scarlet: breaking news from kraft. kraft coming in with a second-quarter loss of $.91 because of merger-related expenses. when you back out all of these one-time items, the adjusted earnings per share was higher than the contestants -- the consensus estimate. says graph -- kraft heinz it will deliver its initial financial view for the merger, and it does not expect to issue or update its earning guidance as well, but it will -- is confident it will deliver against initial merger views. joe: norway may have survived the global financial crisis relatively unscathed, but we have a chart that shows how oil at $50 i

dennis lockhart said barring an unexpected deterioration in the u.s. economy is something he doesn't company, the fed will raise rates next month. >> it's coming. >> it's coming. he said, quote, the economy is ready and it is an appropriate time to make a change. global markets, everyone is just sort of bracing what is coming next. >> everything you will hear today and the next 24 hours none of it probably is important for your wallet as that last story right there. >> you're right. >>> this morning, experts investigating pieces of a plane found washed ashore in the indian ocean. is that plane the missing malaysia airlines flight 370? we are live after the break. woman: this is not exactly what i expected. man: definitely more murdery than the reviews said. captain obvious: this is a creepy room. man: oh hey, captain obvious. captain obvious: you should have used hotels.com. their genuine guest reviews are written by guests who have genuinely stayed there. instead of people who lie on the internet. son: look, a finger. captain: that's unsettling. man:

you mentioned comments by the dennis lockhart the atlanta fed guy. he slowed down some of the momentum. he wasn't able to break the market. despite the fact that his comments caused the dollar to rally. the other reason we may see short-covering there, we'll be facing oil inventories. we'll get the american petroleum institute, a private report, at 4:30 eastern time. we'll see the department of energy report. that report, unlike what has been happening in oil should show that demand is pretty darn good. gasoline demand in this country is well above the five-year average. we're seeing very, very strong demand. refiner demand for oil is near record high. despite the break in price we're seeing a disconnect. expectations for that report is that crude supplies could fall 1.4 million barrels tomorrow. tomorrow we could also see distillate inventories rise but gasoline inventories are supposed to fall. disconnect from the drop in price and demand here in the u.s. that's one of the reasons why we're seeing some short-covering today. david: you have to have

surrender ceremony -- to be aboard the missouri for the surrender ceremony, at that time admiral lockhartook me with him. that is how i got to be on board for the surrender ceremony. at the time, i was 25. a lot of time has transpired since then, but i remember that ceremony quite well. thank you. [applause] in this picture up there, you can see general macarthur, admiral hallsy, admiral forest sherman, and right back of the admiral is my boss, admiral lockwood. >> do you have any questions for captain kaufman? please do. >> -- arctic convoy? >> he would like to know about your experience in the north atlantic continent. cpt. kaufman: in the summer of 1942, we had an eight-inch gun cruiser -- most of the time i was a gunnery officer it was a an eight triple cruiser. so this was a small popgun that did not intimidate me very much, but getting back to the north atlantic -- in the summer of 1942, we went to england and became a national part of the royal navy fleet, in order to be able to operate with the home fleet, those of us who stood under way went out and small craft, used a british si

atlanta said president -- atlanta fed president dennis lockhart expects the central bank to raise rates this year. he admits the matter is complicated by china, oil prices and a stronger dollar. or cleese says the fed probably will not raise rates until next march. -- barclays says the fed will not raise rates until next march. china is who donald trump blames for the market turmoil. they want president obama to cancel next month's visit by xi jinping. walker blamed the market tumble on what he called china's manipulation of the economy. he said president obama should cancel the visit. donald trump said he would give him a dinner, a mcdonald's hamburger. get down.'ve got to yuan, devaluation of the changes in currency, it has been an unbelievable market run. there has been a shift in gdp in the u.s. in the last two quarters. normal market a correction. but i'm still a long time believer in the stock market like warren buffett says you have to look at a long view. brendan: watch the interview with salesforce's mark benioff at 4:25 eastern on bloomberg television. portfolio gotyour hammer

lockhart said. also a rotating member where mr. fischer is a permanent member.inded to go with mr. lockhart.e mr. mr. lockhart is the equivalentr of the bank of england. you need second votes month. the payroll data. i do not think it matters as much now as the inflation data. oil price below $50. guy: bank of england looking through high inflation the u.k. had and we have learned lessons from that. you think the fed will take a similar view? what a normalized rate? why should we worry about the short time right now? greece: the bank of -- michael hewson: to the bank of england to did not act so why should the said -- fed? commodity prices not just oil prices are up -- all deflationary. at some point, it has to ruble out into the core. caroline: their earnings season, u.s. companies, every single one really hit by the dollar strength. they raiseson: if rates ever so slightly, the next question is when is the next one? they will price it then. caroline: when is the next one for china? too earlywson: it is to say. they will probably cut their required rates. this

lockhart being the only hawk on the voting committee this time around. he's going to have a more hawkish tilt in his language but if we look at the competition of the fed, it's dovish. looking at inflation, very sluggish. the labor market showing no further improvement. i don't think there's enough to justify a rate increase just six weeks from now. >> if i know you, you wanted them to move a long time ago. does that kind of talk drive you crazy? >> i think the key thing is to recognize how little labor supply we have. this is not a goldilocks economy. 200,000 jobs in this kind of economy does represent improvement. we saw an increase in average hours and a decline in people working part-time. we saw another 212,000 jobs created. it's pretty good and i don't want the fed to wait too long. that's a classic mistake they make. they always wait too long. i don't think there are a lot of good, available workers out there anymore. >> i think the big unanswered question for many of us over the coming sessions is going to be if they're going to hike, regardless

go out and get the lockhart link burger at the shake shack in austin. i'm telling you it's one of the best sandwiches i've ever had. and then buy calls if you want to be long the stock. but i personally would not be. the options market is telling you this stock is going -- >> i wouldn't recommend that burger for you, guy. >> my constitution i would not do well. especially with the fact i've got to get on a plane and fly for 5 1/2 hours. i have a comment and i a question. my comment is mcdonald's has been trading well. got to give tim seymour credit, i think dan mentioned it last night. the fact it continues around this $100 level where it's had trouble the last three years maybe they finally figured it out number one. number two, a question for the esteemed panel on o.a. will the fact options take the volatility out of the underlying stock, will we no longer see the crazy fluctuations in price? >> kuo can handle that question. >> i have an answer for you. we can look at almost every other t ipo that has taken place. what has happened after options start

go out and get lockhart link burger, it's one of the best you've ever had. buy calls if you want the stock. i personally would not, options -- >> i wouldn't recommend the burger. >> my constitution. i've got to get on a plane and fly 5 1/2 hours. i have a comment and question. >> go ahead. >> mcdonald's trading well. i think dan mentioned last night. the fact it continues to stay around this $100 level where it's had trouble last three years maybe they finally figured outnumber one. number two, question for esteemed panel on oa. the fact options trade take the volatility out of underlying stock. >> good question. >> isn't that a good question. we no longer see crazy fluctuations. >> professor can handle that question. >> i do. we can look at almost every other hot ipo that takes place. what happens after options trading, volatility starts to go down. that's what we see happen as well. >> another way to think about it and you own the stock and looking to add income, sell calls, the stock is not likely to go back up to $100 any time soon. you could use opportu

i think that is the tone of what dennis lockhart had to say over the course of the past two days. do not think it is a done deal that they will raise rates. over the previous five days with , all of the economists and strategists, smart people think that the fed is almost universally going to go in december. i am not going to say i am one of the loan standouts. i'm still not fully convinced. with the fed futures contract, at the flip of a coin, still another payroll number -- but my sense is that -- i will put it this way. whereas previously, i would that be 20% they would move. i'm now closer to 50/50. joe: all right, david, you will stay with us through the break. scarlet: breaking news from kraft. let me pull it up here. kraft coming in with a second-quarter loss of $.91 because of merger-related expenses. when you back out all of these one-time items, the adjusted earnings per share was higher $.98, than the consensus estimate. i should say heinz kraft -- kraft heinz says it will deliver its initial financial view for the merger, and it does not expect to issue or update its e

separately the atlanta fed president dennis lockhart said economic conditions have largely returned to what he thinks of as normal. and that a decision to raise rates should come soon. >>> still ahead, politics and money. what some of the presidential hopefuls have planned for your social security benefits. >>> covering report on our nation's air traffic controllers. two in ten admitted making mistakes in the past year, mainly because of fatigue. the findings were part of a government study which according to the associated press, the federal aviation administration has kept secret. overall, controllers reported averaging under six hours of sleep per day over the course after a work week. >>> well the postal service lost money last quarter. but it was an improvement from a year ago. the independent agency lost about a half a billion dollars in the quarter ended in june. a year ago the loss was nearly $2 billion. even though volumes continue to decline the slide was offset by an increase in prices. officials at the postal service say they are focusing on digital innovation to help impro

the president of the atlanta fed says he sees the fed hiking rates sometime this year but dennis lockhart didn't make mention of september like he last referenced a few weeks ago. he says it's difficult to forecast economic growth. >>> china's stock market plunged overnight which then reverberated across the globe contributing to the selloff worldwide. shanghai's main index fell 8.5% erasing the gains for the entire year. the slide was so sharp, china's state media dubbed today "black monday." overnight, the government eased regulations on pension funds allowing them now to invest in the stock market for the first time. but that was not enough to prop up sentiment. >>> also contributing to the nervousness in the markets was oil. prices today continued to plunge. west texas intermediate fell 5% to settle back at the lowest settlement since early 2009. the accelerating slide in prices is due to declining demand from china and oversupply of crude. and that slide in crude is expected to bring gas prices below $2 a gallon to most of the country by the end of the year. but over the past two wee

dudley and dennis lockhart are going to be giving some speeches, and on the data front, retail sales are out. very important one there. producer price index at the key read on inflation and also the industrial production numbers. that is what to watch next week. >>> well, the high stakes game of house flipping has always been around, but now the practice of buying and selling a home in the same year is solely for profit is getting a whole lot riskier, but also more lucrative. diana olick has our story. >> taking a house from this to this takes a lot of cash, but in today's competitive housing market, it is a necessity for investors who hope to make big profits flipping homes. >> the market has gotten tougher, and so it's not for novices. you have to know what you're doing, and you have to be able to do a good job. you have to have an eye for detail, but with that comes reward, which is a better reward. >> chris harrison put nearly $400,000 into renovating this washington, d.c. home. after buying it for $700,000. it's currently listed at just over $1.4 million. >> it's a calculator ri

the day eldridge vanished, simon lockhart, a doctor at bart's hospital, was murdered in the back of eldridge's stall in smithfield. eldridge was the prime suspect. this may or may not rule him out.

dennis lockhart says it continues to project -- to expect the hike in a decade later this year.hey complicate the outlook for growth. september remains a live possibility. team september becoming a smaller place. commodity prices tumble and the concern over slower growth in china rises, caroline: bhp billiton and they are saying cautious things about the near-term. near-term volatility is going to continue here in china. they say they expect the ongoing economic reforms that china is doing to contribute to a perio of market volatility. this is coming from andrew mckenzie. thehe long-term, --modities on outlook particularly by china. they are looking quite optimistic about the second half of the year when it comes to china. this might be helping the share prices. china will grow at a stronger pace in the second half. they see 7% growth for china this year. they say that china is not impossible to read. that is a funny comment. andrew mckenzie of bhp litan says it is possible. they are articulating their forward strategy well. let's have a dig into the future. they are remaining c