joining me is our chief economist and the portfolio manager lon erickson.going to slip out energy -- strip out energy. is that a legitimate way to look at earnings by taking out energy? what do you think? >> i think we should leave them in there. it is a key component. when they were doing well everyone wanted them in there. we are going to go through a down cycle. let's leave them in there. >> let's take a look at the price action we saw today. we got an immediate drop in the snp and an immediate recovery. what was that from? >> it said most participants viewed a june rate hike. it is paraphrasing, but market participants saw that and thought this is a fed that is surprisingly hawkish and ready to act on monetary policy. however, the minutes are a bit stale and had to be viewed through the lens of a fed looking at gdp growth closer to 2%. non-foreign payroll rates closer to 300,000 and a robust pace of economic activity. since then we have seen a significant pack of the data. we know the economy is growing at a slower pace. we saw the stall of jobs. it was