if she loses iowa and new hampshire, she is still favored, but the race takes on a different tenor andes longer. who would have guessed that it is 12-days until iowa and 12-months until the next president is inaugurated, but it would have guessed that there was a possibility the republican race would have wrapped up faster than the democratic race. katty: and who donald trump could be a possibility against bernie sanders? electionen one wild campaign. still to come on tonight's program, getting a closer view of the russian strikes in syria. we are on the air race from where the planes depart. swedish rights activist who has been in custody since early january at. on chinese television confessing breaking the law from his work. some say this is trial by tv. paraded before the cameras. >> i violated chinese law with my activities here. apologize, and i'm very sorry that this happened. correspondent: mr. dahlin is accused of using foreign money to help undermine the state. the company he founded dismissed allegations saying he was probably forced to speak. he --e foreign minister the chin

theory if you lose iowa, it all spirals down.

what if he loses iowa? what if ted cruz, who has a very good chance, he can win iowa. what does it do for donald trump's ego? what does it do for donald trump's message i'm number one. how does it hurt momentum going into new hampshire. if he loses new hampshire. he loses iowa and new hampshire. what does it mean for a donald trump campaign? >> we've seen the examples of his team not getting the details right. at the last minute on election day, absolutely matters in iowa and new hampshire especially. he said primary is on february 8th. no. the 9th they shouted from the crowd. last night in mississippi he has people saying make sure to switch your party registration. in mississippi there's no party registration. these little details you think who care finance matters. if you screw it up you have one shot. and the caucus system, especially. your colleague and my colleague looked at this. there are real concerns he's not doing the organizing needed. >> we'll see if it costs him. can he translate the national poll numbers into the nuts and bolts? >>> there are 11 candidate

i mean she could feasibly lose iowa. she's getting smoked in new hampshire now. bill clinton did it in '92, he lost iowa and new hampshire and ended up being the nominee and

if i lose iowa, i will never speak to you people again. >> each week until the 2016 election, the road to the white house rewind brings archival coverage. concession speech by democrat howard been on the night of the iowa caucuses. it is best known for what came to be known as the dean scream. a month earlier he was widely considered the front-runner, but his lead dwindled as the caucuses approached and finished third behind john kerry and john edwards. mr. dean a pair i dropped out of the race while senator kerry went on to win the nomination before losing the general election to incumbent george bush. >> are you ready? fightu ready to take this on? are you ready not to give up? are you ready to change america? then you are ready for howard dean, the next president of the united states.

here's the point, ted cruz cannot afford to lose iowa. donald trump can afford to lose iowa. he would recoup in new hampshire where trump supporters have greater intensity than any other supporters and more stick-to-itiveness than any other candidate. lou: the fact is good ground organizations have been essential throughout, particularly in the caucus states. we watched president -- well, then-candidate barack obama outmaneuver the clinton people both in texas and iowa in 2008. how strong a ground operation does trump actually have? >> a very good operation, but what they're trying to do is very difficult. pull new people who have never voted or stopped voting because they decided it makes no difference into the process. remember, this is a caucus, that means you got to sit in a cold gymnasium or fire station for three hours and listen to speeches before you show a hand to vote. not the same as walking into the booth, flipping a lever and walk out. you have more limited participation. ted cruz is extremely well organized but i think trump is very much in the game. lou: in the

if i lose iowa, i iowa, i will never speak to you people again. >> thirty years30 years ago today the challenger space shuttle exploded over florida killing the five astronauts and to palin specialists the board. ..

donald trump could potentially lose iowa and then go on to new hampshire. you can have a scenario in which, you know, like you mentioned, marco rubio doesn't win iowa or new hampshire, but then goes perhaps to a place like south carolina or nevada. it is the calendar that this time around is different too, shorter and there is more of an emphasis on those southern states, that s.e.c. primary that votes on march 1st, and that's why ted cruz is among all the candidates best positioned and really looking to that primary. >> if you were to lose, that's the danger of peaking at this time with still a few weeks to go in iowa where he's ahead. seven to ten points. if he were to squeak by there or actually lose there, even second, that might hurt him, right? >> i think so. i think it would be a blow to momentum, right? i mean, attention in this race is at a premium. it always is. in this cycle especially. it is being able to shape the story line coming out of the races. so that's why, you know, winning second in new hampshire can be sold as a win. we saw bill clinto

her campaign is -- obviously losing iowa or a narrow win in iowa and a loss in new hampshire is not a good outcome but what scares them more than losing the nomination is the freak out that will inevitably come in the party. you have a number of people in the democratic party who don't particularly care for hillary clinton. they're already sort of prime to seek alternatives. they're going to start looking around if there is someone who can jump in late. >> bid. >> vice president biden. >> every day he says i'm not running. >> talking about the democratic campaign, it was heating up. there was some discussion about taxes. but sanders also launched a new campaign commercial to chide hillary clinton on her connections to wall street. >> a lot of what he's talked about in his campaign would be very expensive. it would probably, by the best estimates, end up costing 18 to $20 trillion over 10 years. that's a lot of money and would raise the federal budget by 40%. so you deserve to know what the differences are. >> there are two democratic visions for regulating wall street. one says it's o

iowa. here is where she is losing support, young people, specifically young woman. losing to sanders by 13 point to voters under 50. who would have be drawn to a 74-year-old man is women and young people? ford o'connell, good to see you again. >> good to be here, trish. trish: is she going to lose new hampshire? >> she is going to get thrashed in new hampshire. she is absolutely done in new hampshire. her biggest worry to make sure she doesn't lose iowa and new hampshire so that bernie catches lightning in the bottle. be honest, bernie sanders is doing far better than we ever thought. right now hillary clinton is feeling the bern. trish: go with this for a second. nomiki, humor us for it, if she loses iowa and new hampshire, does it even matter? because she is going to have so many other states, ford? >> you're right. trish: hang on, get ford's response. i know you're going to have a lot to say on this, nomiki. >> you're absolutely, correct, trish, her firewall is minority voters up by 50 points with. if bernie sanders cracks that firewall and keep this momentum goi

maybe that can happen but -- >> you don't accept the idea that you might lose iowa? >> i hope i win iowa. i've developed an amazing relationship with the people of iowa. you see it outside. we have a sold out audience. but i have an amazing relationship with evangelicals, with the tea party, with the people of iowa. >> your chief canompetitor is ted cruz. you have brought up the canadian citizenship issue. but let me ask you your opinion. do you believe he is constitutionally eligible? i know the supreme court has never weighed in on the phrase "natural born citizen." but you yourself, do you think he should be eligible? >> so what happens is i was watching laurence tribe of harvard yesterday who's a constitutional expert, one of the true experts. and according to him, it's a real question mark. and he is the -- i would say he was -- is one of the great authorities on this subject. he has a question mark and -- >> but do you have a question mark? >> from ted's standpoint and the party's standpoint, he has to solve this problem. him if he's the nominee. if ted is the n

he cannot lose iowa and then lose new hampshire. trish: no. but it looks like he's going to win new hampshire. i mean he's -- >> yes. he's -- trish: ahead in the polls right now. >> yeah. he's ahead and the question is who emerges from iowa. not just if ted cruz finishes first but is there going to be a surprise third place finisher or someone that does better than expected? . trish: because so many people have said this is pretty much locked up for donald trump. he's going to win the nomination. it sounds like you're not full of that. >> well, i've been around long enough to know -- if he wins iowa and new hampshire, it is over. trish: uh-huh. >> but if he loses iowa and then wins new hampshire, you still have a race and it all focuses on south carolina and then the big primary states, the big -- march 1st when they have the scc primaries and caucuses, enormous number of primaries in one day, that will be critical. but if trump winces iowa, we have a race, if he wins iowa and new hampshire, it is over . trish: who do you like the most? >> i'm

if hillary loses in iowa, a guy that most of the democratic establishment should be close to right nowd then she loses in new hampshire, you have biden, gore, carrie who start moving and start saying maybe we need to get into the race. that's the discussion that's going on right now. >> i am not making, offering my opinion. >> okay. >> i am being a reporter saying those close to john carrie and joe biden have said specifically that if she loses iowa and new hampshire, they're going to have to take a much closer look on any democratic party on what their best shot is to win the nomination and then expect joe biden and elizabeth warren or john carrie and elizabeth warren to have further discussions about running for the nomination. >> couple of things. there's probably little doubt. you have two losses early on. i would imagine to your point, mika, the fact that this isn't about socialism. a lot of people in the democratic party may be uneasy about the notion. zblp we're only a couple of weeks away. >> you and i call and mr. clinton lost iowa. she went on to win new hampshire and obvious

iowa. >> right. >> let's be honest. hillary clinton doesn't like that. that's not what she wanted to be looking at. she's probably not anything close to what she expected. if she losesoth of those, the first two states, is she damaged goods? >> let's talk about expectations. nobody ever said anything other than this could be a very competitive primary, right? so in iowa, she had -- secretary clinton had a somewhat bigger lead that is now tightening but in new hampshire it's the opposite. he's got a home state advantage and that's not tightening for secretary clinton. so, look, she's not going to lose both of these primaries. we're confident and i'll tell you why. >> you're confident she's going to win them both? >> yes. and i'll tell you why. because this is a more liberal electorate, particularly in iowa, and on the issues. she's where the democratic primary voter is. she's the one that they are going to trust. on civil rights, on things like criminal justice reform. on the banks, which senator sanders rightly so has made a big issue, she's got a tougher, better plan that goes after the big banks and the shadow banks. so, look, it's a new year and people are really

could she wind up losing iowa. what would it mean for her campaign overall. breaking analysis.r campaign manager. 1988 presidential run. good to have you here. >> good to be here. trish: are you surprised that this is as close as it is right now? >> look, iowa is iowa. i know exactly where they are. ideological. they responded very strongly. if very passionate campaign by bernie sanders. if i had to make a prediction right now, hillary will pull it off. convincing me enough. this will not be a one-to-three punch type of season. she will grind out this nomination. >> if she loses iowa, issue loses new hampshire higher, you still think that she can win the whole thing? >> yes. i am so old it is terrible. i was working for the democratic party. gary hart came from nowhere. he did not beat mondale in iowa. it was as if he did. he was the great, you know, bright star. then we set up for the three-month period having money, having organization, having all of those super delegates, all of that will add up. states we do not pay attention to. send it delegates. trish: the white house ha

even if she loses iowa and new hampshire. >> what do you think? >> i think that hillary is in trouble in iowa. it's an enthusiasm issue. even though it's -- it's almost similar to the situation with what's going on in the republican side, right? we have donald trump who has all these new voters, potentially, coming in who have never caucused before, but they're really enthusiastic. >> this isn't news. you can go back to the summer of 2014 where the progressive activists in iowa were not too thrilled with the hillary clinton candidacy. they were holding out hope for elizabeth warren. that lack of enthusiasm for hillary has plagued her all along. if you look at the real clear politics average over the last month or so, when she was up to 54% maybe two months, she's up at 54% or so, and all you see is the trend line going like this. she's been losing support. bernie sanders has been gaining support, and a lot of that comes from young people in college towns who will be around to caucus this time because of the calendar, but will they show up. their pl

if i lose iowa, i will never speak to you people again. ♪ >> next, a keynote address of a conference story of violent caucuses. was the iowa caucus campaign manager for jim carter in 1976. the story of carter posit i will victories compared to the more recent iowa caucuses, arguing candidates now sometimes spend more money on one event than carter spent for his entire iowa effort. herbert hoover library hosted this talk about 30 minutes. >> our keynote speaker is tim kraft, a retired political advisor from new mexico who came to visit us today.

now, if i lose iowa, i will never speak to you people again. ♪ >> you are watching american history tvours of programming on american his three, every weekend on c-span3. follow us on twitter @cspan history for information on our schedule and to keep up with the latest history is. american history tv has been airing oral histories with african-american community leaders. the project, "expirations and black leadership," was a american history tv has been airing oral histories collaboration between the university of virginia and william -- julian bond. up next, we hear from william raspberry, who works for almost 40 years for "the washington post" before retiring in 2005. mr. rasberry, who died in 2012, remembers his childhood in mississippi and discusses his commitment to education, and the importance of education to the african-american community. this program is about two hours. julian: welcome to "expirations of black leadership." thank you for being here. william: it is a pleasure and a joy to be here. julian: i want to start with a question about brown versus board of education. do

now, if i lose iowa, i will never speak to you people again. >> ahhhh! as iowans are scheduled to caucus on monday, we'll take you to the city of carroll, iowa, where former florida governor and presidential candidate jeb bush will talk to voters. catch that live at 1:45 p.m. eastern on c-span. illinois governor bruce rahner gave his second state of the state address in springfield. he outlines plans to reform the state's pension, education, and criminal justice systems. this is just over half an hour. [ applause ] [ applause ] >> mr. governor, please proceed. >> thank you very much. president culling-ton, speaker madigan, leader redono, leader dirkin, lieutenant governor sanguinetti, attorney general madigan, secretary white, comptroller munger, treasure fraricks, members of the general assembly, thank you all for your service. to our distinguished guests and to the media, thank you for attending today. to the members of our national guard our servicemen and women and our veterans, thank you on behalf of a most grateful state. [ applause ] a unit of our

now, if i lose iowa, i will never speak to you people again. >> ahhhh! as iowans are scheduled to caucus on monday, we'll take you to the city of carroll, iowa, where former florida governor and presidential candidate jeb bush will talk to voters. catch that live at 1:45 p.m. eastern on c-span. illinois governor bruce rahner gave his second state of the state address in springfield. he outlines plans to reform the state's pension, education, and criminal justice systems. this is just over half an hour. [ applause ] [ applause ] >> mr. governor, please proceed. >> thank you very much. president culling-ton, speaker madigan, leader redono, leader dirkin, lieutenant governor sanguinetti, attorney general madigan, secretary white, comptroller munger, treasure fraricks, members of the general assembly, thank you all for your service. to our distinguished guests and to the media, thank you for attending today. to the members of our national guard our servicemen and women and our veterans, thank you on behalf of a most grateful state. [ applause ] a unit of our