many said it would be an ohio offset for mitt romney if he were to lose ohio. maybe surprisingly to pick up pennsylvania, a state that he was getting very competitive in in the waning days of the race. obviously he did not win it, so that puts even more pressure on him now to win ohio were to cobble together wisconsin and iowa, but pennsylvania, where he campaigned just today when last-minute bit of effort to try to capture this. it was not enough. this will not be the final percentages, but we can estimate was 7 percent of the vote in the barack obama will win pennsylvania. we have a horse race here. we almost seven tied electoral race here. yaks. more after this. music is a universal language. but when i was in an accident... i was worried the health care system spoke a language all its own with unitedhealthcare, i got help that fit my life. information on my phone. connection to doctors who get where i'm from. and tools to estimate what my care may cost. so i never missed a beat. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. t

mitt romney loses ohio it becomes incredibly difficult. is why ohio is important and basically every part of this campaign, vice-presidential, and presidential in ohio today

. >> i read yesterday, i think again it was nate silver who said that if romney was to lose ohio, he would have just a 3% chance of winning the election. conversely, if barack obama lost

if he loses ohio and gets colorado and wisconsin, your state, he still won. think he is very much in this game and i know a lot of my colleagues are saying he has -- i think he is on a winning course. i don't know if he has got it won. >> the ground game is where we are. that is the most important thing, the ground game. i'm trying to snoop around to see who is doing what for ground games. i have ralph reid, faith and freedom coalition. he told me that he had governor sarah palin through a ro robocl that has gone to 12 million voters. i said how important is she to getting voters out. >> he described her as a major asset and she resonates strongly with evangelical women and social conservatives and she is major assets. 180,000 line calls from volunteers. others do robo calls. governor huckabee and marco rubio. that is part of the ground game. >> you cannot get a better person than sarah palin to go for the republican base. the tee party and evangelicals and social conservatives. she still has tremendous clout with the groups and they should be inspired even w

and if the president loses ohio. however, if he gets enough to get florida, that would give the president enough to get florida and florida is huge. if somehow, it goes towards the way of all, that would change everything for mitt romney worrell,. and if the still four votes short of the 270. and if they still want to pull this out there could be new hampshire, wisconsin, iowa, 273, colorado. and 272. you can see there are a lot of different ways that this can go. it is projected to be a very close election and will be here. >>pam: early ballots were clacast at the registrars and oakland. they look like there were 75 percent of the county's 820,000 registered voters were participating in the 2012 election. some of those voting today tell us that it is the issues that got them to the voting early. >> there are very strong philosophical beliefs. it is beyond our deficit. , that made a huge impact on our vote, women issues, social issues, that determined that. >> there are so many issues that have to be concerned about

obama seems to have more pass to nomination, to the presidency if he loses ohio. romney, it is critical he wins ohio. mitt romney will be at the patriot center tomorrow at the university and joe in sterling.ally so a lot of love for our state until the end. on top for the candidates to mars? romney and obama will be back in ohio. >> are there any other signs that could help predict the oncome of the election tuesday that you are seeing? the race has been interesting. stable for so long. and we have the first debate mitt it seemed to break romney's way. it changed that the dynamics of the race. romney felt started to argument of momentum, the they have the momentum been saying that true and that they have the look womack on their -- on their side. then hurricane sandy hatband. he had that trip to new jersey with chris christie, who is not just a republican, but a top romney surrogate. obama a really given to seem presidential. people are still without beginning tore e such sad images of people still struggling to get on their feet -- the gone -- that could produce s

he loses ohio and takes pennsylvania which is more of an uphill he has more than 270 votes. he has ohio, wisconsin you are safe he still won. i think he's very much in this game. i know a lot of my colleagues are saying he's got it won. i think he's on a winning course. i don't know if he has it won. >> the ground team which is where we are. that's the most important foreground games. i had a series of e-mails with ralph read faith and freedom coalition. he told me he had governor palin with a robo call going through 12 million voters. how far is she from getting voters up. he described a major asset evangelical women, tea party voters social conserves and repeats she is a major asset. we have 183,000 live calls in ohio just wednesday. governor scott walker, senator marco rubio that is part of the ground game. tea party, evangelicals, social conservatives. they have tremendous clout with these groups. anecdotal thing on saturday. i am sitting in the basement, they didn't know wasn't i was. i said yes i am going to be at the polls. i talked to someone i am falling dc for ohio

they knew they were in trouble in the midwest, in wisconsin they did not know they would lose ohio. virginia -- one of the building blocks of the romney plan disappeared out from under them. they just did not see that coming. the only swing state a one is north carolina. it is a wipe out -- no two weighs about 8. >> mitt romney had the concession -- what happens next for him? does he have a political career after this? >> no. one of the suns may run for governor of utah. the republican party will move on. nobody is heating mitt romney's advice about where the party should go. there is a lot of bitterness about setbacks with hispanics and these huge gender gap for president obama. that is one of the fascinating things you see -- a huge gender gap. the obama coalition really held together and got big turnout. we did not think we could see 2008 again, but we saw a wonderful numbers. >> is it too early to play monday morning quarterback and see where republicans could have done different? >> a big mistake to go so far right, huge mistake to be against the auto bailout. in ohio, the exit

i do. >> that's the only way he loses ohio? >> that's correct.e and the leading in the polls in ohio, the only way you can lose is if people are prevented from casting their ballots and other forms of harassment. >> okay. will ie geist, do you have a question for the governor? if you look at voter irregularities and where do you see this race playing out? we talked a lot about virginia early on and in particular, loudoun county and some people looking at that as the bellwether and it looks like the dominos fall and where do you look at it as the guy in the middle of the races as well. >> one of the interesting states is colorado and wisconsin. if the president wins both wisconsin and colorado you can probably win without ohio. you certainly can't win without ohio and pennsylvania, and i still think virginia will narrowly go for the president and there are huge turnouts across northern virginia which is good for the democrats, but we know that will be a very close state. >> all right. governor howard dean, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it.

i don't think you want to lose ohio.o it puts into play a lot of other states that romney folks hope they win, like a state like virginia, i don't think you want to be in a position of where you can say we can afford to lose he he but we will pick it up somewhere else. >>neil: what did you think of governor christie with the president in new jersey yesterday saying he was doing, help is help and he will take it. there have been a lot of people in the republican party saying it did not look good and the timing of it so close to the election next week almost represented a slap to mitt romney. what do you say? >>guest: i say when you go of a state and your state has been absolutely decimated and devastated and somebody comes in to help you, i likely to give them a big hug and thank them. i told somebody earlier today about this, if you have a loved one that is in a operating room and you don't know how it will go and weapon the doctor walks out and says, the patient is fine, patient is going to make it, you tend to hug the

>> i think he really can't afford to lose ohio. if he loses in other places. he feels that he can win in wisconsin and iowa. they think they can win in nevada. they think that romney's going into pittsburgh tonight. he was in philadelphia yesterday. they think that pennsylvania is a head fake, a faint. i think they realize that they not going to win, obviously. north carolina and indiana, two states they won before. they think there is a firewall in the midwest and the three states they want are ohio, wisconsin, and iowa and nevada and, if they win those four states, they'll be all right. they don't have to win florida and virginia then. >> one thing we know by tomorrow night, we won't know the answer to any of those questions. >> exactly. >> we thank you. mark. as the candidates move on, mitt romney will end the evening in new hampshire and the president's going home to chicago. >> all right, guys. election officials in d.c. say about 52,000 people voted early this year. more than twice as early in the september 2010 primary and that is adding up to more than

i'm just saying, romney's path -- he could lose ohio. he could lose p.a., but still become president if he wins in colorado and wisconsin. is it a long shot? who knows? we'll see later. >> what an exciting race. thank you, larry. >> don't forget, cnbc is your election headquarters. beginning at 5:00 p.m., a special edition of "squawk box." >> at 7:00, carl quintanilla will join me as we take you to the first poll closings until whenever the election is called. >> it's a late night. >>> meanwhile, 40 minutes before the closing bell sounds today. the market is rallying, although we're off the best levels. >> one of the nation's richest men using his own money to warn against what he sees is our nation's side toward socialism. listen. >> america's wealth comes from the efforts of people striving for success. take away their incentive with bad mouthing success and you take away the wealth that helps us take care of the needy. >> coming up, interactive brokers founder and ceo thomas peterffy explains why he thinks mitt romney can get the coun

the president has other ways to get there if he loses ohio. >> greta: joe, thank you.oming up the obama administration, did they deliberately mislead americans about libya. that is the question. new poll asks questions. and just when you think you saw every campaign ad. a new campaign ad will make you wonder if there are any limits. that is just two minutes away. ♪ [ male announcer ] it started long ago. the joy of giving something everything you've got. it takes passion. and it's not letting up anytime soon. at unitedhealthcare insurance company, we understand that commitment. and always have. so does aarp, an organization serving the needs of americans 50 and over for generations. so it's no surprise millions have chosen an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement plans, they help cover some of the expenses medicare doesn't pay. and save you up to thousands in out-of-pocket costs. to find out more, request your free decision guide. call or go online today. after all, when you're

the president has other ways to get there if he loses ohio. >> greta: joe, thank you.y deliberately mislead americans about libya. that is the question. new poll asks questions. and just when you think you saw every campaign ad. a new campaign ad will make you a new campaign ad will make you wonder if thereeeeeee those surprising little things she does still make you te notice. there are a million reasons why. but your erectile dysfunction that could be a question of blood flow. cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood essure. do not dnk alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache o

we might lose ohio, which is 18, pennsylvania's 20, we're going f broke. >> how much of a driver is this u.s. senate race going on between tim kaine and george allen in virginia going to be right now? early on, we're talked about whether the presidential race was going to affect the senate race. is the vice-versa happening here? >> and if barack obama -- i think tim kaine is running ahead of barack obama in virginia. he has coattails. if romney wins virginia and wins it by two or three points, i think george allen goes with him and i think there is a possibility of ticket splitting by virtue of the fact that you might have people voting for romney and cane. i will repeat the line that brian moran uses. it's the chairman of the democratic party in virginia. it's relevant to this. you find me one obama-allen voter. they don't exist. >> in less than an hour, they'll come to a close. >> thank you. >>> both vice presidential candidates cast their ballots. paul ryan voted in janesville, wisconsin. ryan and his wife went together with the kids to the polling like. after filling out his ballot,

. >> if romney loses ohio, john, can he win the election? >> the path is very, very, very difficult without ohio, and that's why the obama camp has made it a fire wall, which is the reversal of political trends in the past. usually ohio is the republican firewall in the election. a couple things, the fact that ohio use unemployment rate is lower than the nation's, very rare, hasn't happened in decades. obama campaign has invested heavily in early voting, president obama had a very significant lead among those voters, so the romney camp is going to be all about election day. that's their -- that's their long ball but it could not be closer. every vote matters here in ohio. both camps doing everything they can to get out their vote on tuesday. >> every vote matters everywh e everywhere. get out and vote, everybody. vote early. we'll talk to you again at 1:00 eastern time so i'll see you again soon. thanks for dropping by. a smaller more efficient government or an invisible hand to assist and protect those in need? president obama and mitt romne

if he loses ohio he lost this election. we will watch it and see what happens. >> voters will cast votes for or against same sex marriage today. we want to check in now with john, he is monitoring the national issuesip cluding gay marriage; john? >> we might have history. the first state to approve same sex marriage by vote could come this evening. maine is the first state to put it on the ballot in its own right. maryland and washington voters are asked to overturn it by legislatures. minnesota voters asked to change the constitution to define marriage between a man and a woman. 6 states legalized same sex marriage by legislation, this is maryland earlier this year. now, thattates previously rejected gay marriage. they have been encouraged by polling showing 49% favor same sex marriage. maryland voter turnout, reported as heavy. early returns just into our news room, 52% are approving it. in maine, early returns, 53% approving same sex marriage. minnesota, no returns yet. the results in washington state may not be known un

are filling, it's nothing but the force of the door closing behind them because they are going to lose ohio. he ought not even come to ohio tomorrow because we're going to be with the president. >> do you think people in ohio are mentally prepared for what they went through in 2004? is the resolve for people to stand in line for hours? >> i saw it yesterday, ed. it was there. absolutely. people coming from church, white brothers and sisters, black brothers and sisters standing in line side by side. they understand the only race that matters is the human race. who has the best interest in the human race here in the united states of america is president obama. they know they stand on the shoulders of our fore parents and people like fannie lou haimer who was jailed and beaten because she wanted the right to vote. people were there. our resolve is strong in ohio. we understand that it is all or nothing. we are going blue in the state of ohio. >> governor crist down in florida, e great to have you with us tonight. what's going on in palm beach county? why is this happening, governor? >> the pro

a senior strategist said to me, fmitt romney loses ohio, i'll give you $1,000 to your favorite charity for every point he wins among independents." his argument was there's no way he can lose the state if he wins among independents. mitt romney won independents by 10 points in ohio, lost the state. they just-- >> schieffer: barack obama also won white working clalsz voters in ohio, which he didn't do very well with in other places. >> what he did in ohio was did well enough with white work clalsz voters and the african american turnout in ohio was 11% in 2008. it was 15% in this election. why did that happen? the strategists i talked to sort of were like, well, of course, barack obama is going to do well with african americans. if you look at african america african americans -- two things you talk to strategists who know the african american community, there was an effort by republicans in states from pennsylvania, florida, ohio, to shrink the amount of days and ways in which african americans could vote. >> schieffer: you know, to me, most telling statistic in this whole race, dee de

>> he's not going to carry pennsylvania and lose ohio. >> why not? >> things don't work that.ll you he can't. if on the other hand if,7 president obama carries either virginia or florida, game over. the importance of ohio would recede. that's the first thing to look for. let's see what happens in pennsylvania, virginia, w"flo. i don't think pennsylvania is in play. they do. >> do you agree with that analysis? >> mostly, except i think there's a path that's going to be an unusual map and the evidence of the uniqueness is nobody can agree on it. i don't think we're going to lose virginia, but if we did, we could make it up. but you've got to win florida. you can make up virginia with colorado, iowa, new hampshire. but you would have to get ohio. >> if the president wins virginia, i'm just going to call it. because if he wins virginia -- >> if he wins virginia four years ago against john mccain, you have to agree there's a lot less enthusiasm out there right now. >> we can supposedly, if we're good enough pollsters, we can account for that. the enthusiasm gap, is about the same.

be a deeply divided state, that the former massachusetts governor will desperately needs if he loses ohio. >> now let's make sure that every single person we know gets out and votes on tuesday. you know what makes this rally and all your work so inspiring is that you're here because you care about america. a campaign about our country and about the future we're going to leave to our children. we thank you, we ask you to stay at it all the way until victory on tuesday night. >> the polls show the president with a slight lead, but the percentage is small and voters are disgruntled. if there are any undecided americans out there, the next few hours will be critical to winning them over. jane o'brian, "bbc news," washington. >> well, it really is all about the swing states here. we heard about ohio there, for example. let's go to another key state. let's cross to florida and join john who's in tampa. john, hello. >> jane, thank you very much. if this seems a rather unlikely place to be a doing of series outside the live aquarium, you can see from the signs, tomorrow this becomes a polling sta

both candidates campaigning as if they believe that any letup and they'll lose ohio and lose the election. live from washington, i'm steve handelsman, nbc bay area news. raj? >> steve, thank you. here in california now, a new field poll is out on prop 34 which would end the death penalty. the poll finds that 45% of likely voters support stopping executions. 38% oppose the idea. 17% are undecided. the poll also finds that support for prop 34 is increasing, up four points since last month. and the voters are increasingly swayed by the costs of maintaining death row and all the court appeals that go with it. nbc by area's susan shaw will have a look at both sides of prop 34 in our 6:00 newscast. >>> and on election night, we have extensive local coverage on air and on line. nbcbayarea.com. we will be streaming results, interviews, and analysis on our website and our mobile application. just go to the app store for apple and android devices and search nbc bay area. >>> it could be a game changer for school leaders everywhere, a principal facing jail time after one of her teachers is charged w

although, i've got to say, romney is closer to losing florida than obama is close to losing ohio. now that tells you something. i think north carolina is romney's. i think, as i said, wis consin, ohio, and iowa are all going to go to obama. new hampshire is tight as a tick, it colorado is tight as a tick, nesad is obama's. and there we are. the rest aren't competitive. >> i would say this. as we look at this on election night early on, even if these states are close, even if obama wins a pennsylvania, minnesota, michigan, we may not know that right away because they're really close. i think they only break if there's a very giant wave, and frankly, none of us see that coming. >> schieffer: you think we're going to be there late. >> oh, yes. >. >> it depends what happens in florida. i think florida say toss-up, and if you look at the early vote, if if leans pretty heavily democratic and in a lot of the states where obama is ahead by a point or two, the early vote is democratic. the republicans caught up, but it's still democratic leaning. >> schieffer: my sense is we'll be waiting

if romney loses ohio, he needs to pick up another big state, right now the romney campaign senses they have momentum with independents and republican enthusiasm can carry them to victory in pennsylvania. bill clinton is headed thereed to -- there today to campaign, obvious sign democrats are not taking chances the president still does maintain a slim lead in pennsylvania. >>> monday night football is going political on this final day of the campaign. both president obama and mitt romney are taping interviews that will air at halftime during tonight's game. espn's chris berman is conducting the interviews four years ago he tacked to -- he talked to then senator obama and mccain. we will work around the clock to bring you up to the minute election results tomorrow, 3 p.m. join us for a special edition of abc7 news, live reports from the obama and romney headquarters. 3:30, world news followed by live election coverage from abc news at 4 p.m., 8:00 more bay area results from abc7 news followed by abc news returning with primetime election coverage at 8:30. remember, you can get up to the

supporters here at the lakeside center either later tonight or perhaps early tomorrow morning, win or lose. >> ohio the state everybody is watching, the vote there could be close and it could be complicated. what is up with that? >> reporter: that's right we are talking about those provisional votes given to those who perhaps registered for an absentee ballot then show up at the polls or maybe people who show up but don't have the proper identification those votes aren't counted until 10 days after election day. if it comes down to those, ohio, it could be a long wait. >> t.j. winick, live in chicago, thank you. stay with abc7 news for complete election results today, get real-time results on abc7news.com many -- the moment the polls close live updates all night facebook.com/abc7news. and through twitter. >>> looks mighty cold in chicago. kind of a dramatic contrast from what we have here which is shortsleeve weather for a lot of people. >> if you have been near the lake this time of year in chicago you know what cold feels like, like a knife. >> cold and damp. >> happy to be here. >> first frost n

nine of 13 of the last polls show romney winning independence you don't lose ohio if you are winning independence, and second of all, these early vote numbers are strong as it and acre of garlic and we say in texas. lou: thank you for being with us. appreciate it. thank you for bringing your strong texas language. it feels like home. >> there we go. lou: much more on the final stretch of the election and what's to -- what to expect from both candid it's as that day approaches. hurricane sandy aftermath. five days and, and tempers are flaring. frustration is building as gas lines grow longer and longer and longer. grocery store shelves are going bare, and s.i. is growing desperate. the balance of power, governor romney calls for change and bipartisanship in the nation's capital. who will actually control the senate and the house? we take that up in tonight's choctaw. lou: the final jobs report before the presidential election showing little progress made during the president's first term. we will take that up with former congressional budget office director, douglas holds a can in jus

if mitt romney loses ohio, he will be an also ran. there's hardly a path to 270 if he loses ohio.nt obama is strong many colorado, strong in nevada, and, you know, the one thing that the democrats have done quite well over the last couple of months is they've registered new voters. 1.8 million voters. 28% of them have already cast their ballots early. >> you know, there's often a period during the campaign where you can feel like something has changed, something has turned. i remember back in 2008 it was really two weeks before the election and the obama folks really started to feel optimistic like, wow, i think we got this. do you have that feeling? do you think that's the kind of feeling that the romney folks are experiencing now? are they still very uncertain? >> i think the entire country is uncertain. if we see poll after poll and all of the swing states, they are just very close. too close to call. almost flip a coin close. i think nobody should be feeling optimistic. everybody should be feeling nervous. getting out the vote until the very last minute. we can feel optimistic

you know, you lose ohio and with the rest of the states that are not called for. you have to win them all. therein lies the difficult math. not impossible, but difficult. the republicans are not closing the deal on the senate. we are going to peter barnes. we could be looking at a mirror image of what we have seen already. the repeat image of the last four years. democratic president, democratic senate red republican house. if anyone expect them all to play together, may i introduce my 10-year-old boy and 9-year-old boy. i will leave it at that. you see us, at the start of the day. on the company phone list that's a few names longer. you see us bank on busier highways. on once empty fields. everyday you see all the ways all of us at us bank are helping grow our economy. lending more so companies and communities can expand, grow stronger and get back to work. everyday you see all of us serving you, around the country, around the corner. us bank. ♪ neil: all right. this is from the headquarters in boston, massachusetts. they're worried, but they're not giving up hop

he can lose ohio, virginia and florida and still win by carrying colorado and nevada and that's the situation. they've been in this situation for weeks and now unfolding tonight just as i say as if the obama campaign had said they thought it would. they said they thought it would unfold this way, preserve the midwest, still win ohio and the biggest county out still only 20% of this county is in, cuyahoga county, only 20% in, that's cleveland and that gave barack obama a margin of 300,000 votes in that one county and that county is still 80% out. >> donna brazile, let's talk about iowa a little bit because that is where we first saw the power of this barack obama ground game. >> i'll never forget that. january 3rd, clinton and by the way we haven't mentioned bill clinton tonight. when i look at this map tonight, pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan, bill clinton did a phenomenal job campaigning across the country, side by side with president obama, clearly some of the clinton effect really helped president obama tonight especially on the ground game. president obama has some of the -- i would lik

so instead of romney losing by 5. he wins ohio by one.n west virginia. >> they have owe become that winning by 2. but they have 8 points more democrats than republicans and historically there is one point more republic than democrat. that's off by a factor of 9. romney wins virginia by seven. >> that's pretty much what rove did on his little board. here's my question. can a pollster assume that all democrats and all republicans are going to vote for whoever is running in their party? can you assume that. >> yeah, you can. >> bill: with any certainty. >> yes, you can you get about 90% voting for their party. so you can it's the independents who split. what the "new york times" is doing is they are taking a poll that is probably initially accurate. i bet that all three of those polls show romney ahead. then they are waiting weighting up the number of democrats. >> bill: you mean obama ahead. >> excuse mio bama ahead. >> bill: start again. i want to be precise. start again. >> i bet all three of those polls when they came out of the field th

he can lose ohio, he can lose new hampshire. >> then he has to win colorado, wisconsin and either iowar new hampshire. >> he will win iowa, wisconsin and colorado. no question. the minimum elect tore really votes he has and he has a shot at ohio and pennsylvania. >> i was there all weekend. i can make your argument and that is the scott walker recall. >> yeah! >> no, no, but that's a big thing. but you look at the policy, it's very tight. it's very -- >> screw the policy. give me a break. the. >> you have to look at them. >> the polls basically are these states, it's a tie. it's a tie. whenever you have a tie, a, the republican win. whenever you have a tie totally separately, the challenger wins. and you have the bradley effect when you have a white man running against a black man and there's a war now more than ever before. because americans are afraid to say they are voting witness obama because they will be accused for racism. but if you are a tea party,a racist. if you are against obama, you are a racist. if you are against the testimony plus bill. >> and you think it has oppressed

so it's a tough path for them in governor romney loses ohio. >> what are you looking for in share ofhe electorate? >> the share of the white vote and minority vote. president obama got 43% of the white vote. that's a shrinking part of the electorate shrinking since 1992. or is this a new electorate? in 2008 president obama created a new coalition and the electorate is moving in the president's way. if governor romney does well tonight, the electorate will look more like it did in 2000 and 2004 than it did in 2008. >> i think 20% of the electorate in 2008 was a minority vote and obama won that, 80% of that vote. they're predicting that could go higher in terms of that part of the electorate. but then in you look at states like ohio and wisconsin, obama would win there because of actually the white vote because there's a lot of white votes in those states. >> it would be an irony, if he wins in ohio it will be because of white voters and because the economy in ohio is better. >> okay, stay with us for a minute. >> we begin with obama's senior adviser david axelrod. david, good morning.