lotfi: no.es: no. victoria: no. lisa: is the chance of a u.s. recession in the next 12 months above or below 75%? victoria? victoria: below. james: below. lotfi: below. lisa: all right. will we see parity with the euro-dollar cross in the next six months, jim? james: yes. lisa: victoria? victoria: no? lotfi: no. lisa: thank you to all of you, the tory fernandez, jim keenan, and lotfi karoui on this insane day as we rethink how high peak inflation really is. that does it for us, same place, same timex week. that was "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg. ♪ another crazy day? of course—you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want —your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast busines

if it happens i think that brings us to where we were >> lotfi, i hadn't thought about it it has to beg rates, yields to be moving up so quickly and knowing that the fed is going to be stepping out, and it's been the biggest buyer for a long time. >> absolutely. keep this mind that the exit is also synchronized this time around you have the fed starting to run up the balance sheet but at the same time you have the ecb in europe ending the app and so yes, the back of the exit is a lot more front roaded in the u.s. but also a lot more synchronized in europe and these are challenges from a market plumbing standpoint in addition tobroader risk sentiment. >> the third would be a faster than expected erosion of corporate margins. and everybody is kind of watching and wondering how margins will hang in when earnings season begins again in just a few weeks what's your guess? are they going to be able to full off, corporate leaders? or will there be more pressures, estimates have to come down? >> i kind of file like we had two seasons in one a much more negative signal. that's something that i