disclosure i do own a small business and gold money out there welcome back to the kaiser report and lou max all right so i've read a lot of your research over the errors and occasionally you hit one out of the park with that's a baseball expression by the way for you brits might not know what i'm saying this is really a seminal piece this is a very major piece you've put out here the credit cycle is turning interest rates are rising they have been falling for over thirty years alister you say the cycle is actually turning so tell us about what indicators do you see is this really happening. well the best indicators all this that is they can't really go below zero i know that they try to put it blows zero but i mean that's a little nonsense. so you know. so the first thing it can't really go any lower after the next credit cycle the other thing that worries me is that if you look at the rate of inflation in america it is very understated we all know that c.p.i. says something like three percent we believe it but actually if you look at you know a costard basket of prices is closer to ten percent