let's get thoughts from luca paolini in the london studio for us. you expect from the numbers today? luca: if you look at the numbers you have seen from adp, it suggests downside risk. in the last few months, we have seen a deterioration in the labor market. not only in terms of job creations but other indicators. the job market feels solid. indicators --ll job growth is 1% higher than year ago. that is the lowest since 2010. this trend will continue for a little bit longer. i don't expect any shop numbers today, to be honest. matt: what about overall? do you expect a u.s. recession next year, as we have heard some predict? socgen has predicted it. is the trade war going to hit the u.s. economy hard? underpricingket is the risk of a u.s. recession. it is unlikely that you will get a recession in the u.s.. look at investment. investment is already in a recession in the u.s.. earnings have fled. the risk is definitely there. to get the u.s. into a recession, you need to have a shock on the trade war side. otherwise, the fundamentals are relatively ok o