jonathan: luke hickmore, are we ready for 1% gdp growth going into 2020 in america? is that your baseline? luke: i think our economies are a little bit about that, but the risks of that are very high. jonathan, over the last year or so, we have talked numerous curveabout how the 2/10 is such a good predictor of slowdowns. we cannot ignore that. we cannot ignore the consumer is probably at the best they will be at the moment, employment at the best it will be. we cannot ignore that. our u.s. colleagues have been moving underweight u.s. investment grade credit for the first time indicates. it will be a problem. we are going to see slower growth. we are starting to react to it right now. jonathan: mike collins, what are your reactions? slowing, maybe about 2.5% this year, maybe high one's next year. is there going to be a recession or not, are missing the point. it is not necessarily a binary outcome. slow growth is bad for highly levered credits. is going to be a really challenging environment for a lot of companies. 1% is a militant lower than our base case. we think a