jonathan: back with us, meghan swiber, luke hickmore, troy gayeski. 500-something basis points only aonth ago, all the way down to close to 400. what do you make of that? luke: exuberance across risk markets. right now, some protection. alternative assets, if we can do that that would be great. if you are in a credit fund with limited options, layering in to crossover on the u.s. high-yield version, a pretty good price for getting there. i think we can easily go 20% wider at the end of q3 and start worrying about q4 and earnings coming down. credit quality to the point of numbers being talked about. high-yield is probably the riskiest part of the credit market right now. i actually prefer that yield by a long stretch. jonathan: are things tougher from your seat compared to where meghan is sitting right now? luke: the u.k. is a tough place. if you think you have an inflation problem, our numbers are through the roof and it will be a lot longer before they come back down. in the meantime, europe, winter is coming up. the recession numbers -- it could easily spike. that is a big problem

joining us now, aberdeen investment management -- luke hickmore, aberdeen investment management. catch up. what do you make of the market response to the numbers we saw today, which were incredibly strong? luke: i think the market is confused. on one hand, as you have been talking about, this is a big number. that is inflation. that is 75 basis points from the fed. on the other hand, is there really a recession? listen, recession is coming. we have seen morgan stanley's report saying the lower income quartiles have blown through their savings. it is starting to work into the needle and income quartiles as well. it is coming. in fact we get a black jobs report is a massive distraction for the market. it probably does tell us the fed is going to move, but equities should not be getting excited about this. kailey: if you say a recession is coming, is that also saying that the fed is not ultimately going to that high of a terminal rate, or do you think they hike through it? luke: i think they hike through the early stages. that really unusual situation of a recession and fed hike. arg