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not sure how much we can take, nicholas wealth management president, david nicholas, and luke lloyd. ks for joining us. david, you first, what advice are you giving your clients going into 2023? >> yeah, lauren, we're telling our clients to keep their watch lists ready. a lot of stocks, a lot of different sectors showing relative strength. we're not seeing a clear buying opportunity right now. if you look at major indexes from a technical standpoint, s&p, nasdaq trading below 200-day moving averages. that is not a very bullish signal for stocks. this is what we've done for our clients, remain defensive going into the first quarter, a much better buying opportunity around the officers quarter. lauren: buying what, david, or you don't know? >> you want to own sectors proven they could win. look at sectors like energy, like health care. we also like treasurys. lauren i know this is boring. we started our own etf. the ticker symbol is fiax. it owns treasurys yielding 4 1/2% now. we sell options on top of that to generate additional few percentage points. you can own things like energy, he

meanwhile, here is luke lloyd. ly turning into a santa slump after the past couple of days? >> yeah, absolutely. i mean, the santa rally happened in october and november in anticipation of a december santa rally right so its been a complete santa slump. kids are most likely happy come christmas but santa is stressed out about how to make ends meet in 2023. i mean, look, i think next year, will be one of the most obvious slowdowns in recessions that everybody knows about but most people ignored or already looked past it. everyone wants to be a contrarian investor right now, and i think a lot of people are going to get themselves into trouble being a contrarian too early. the next six months are going to be rough in the economy and the stock market. there's really no win situation in the next six months. if the fed doesn't hike enough consumers continue to rack up credit card debt and get into a much worse situation down the road. if the fed does their job, continues to destroy demand through the labor market, there w

window this morning in the pre-market, the dow, s&p, and nasdaq, nasdaq down again 1% let's bring in luke lloydjoin us now, to talk about it all. it is the final trading day of the year, luke, and as we start a new year, as we look to 2023, what are the biggest risks in your mind? >> yeah, so there's a difference between the biggest risk in 2023 and the most likely risk. i mean, the most likely risk in our eyes is a somewhat mild recession that's a little deeper than what the average consensus is right now. with 5% to 6% unemployment, and consumers finally cutting back their spending habits which impact earnings estimates and valuations in 2023, both of which in our opinion is still too high. i mean, the biggest risk of them all which isn't likely to occur, but something we do have to pay attention to, is a credit crisis i mean, if unemployment spikes to the high single-digits there will be consumers that default on their debt. that could snowball into companies that over-leverage themselves to default on their debt too, so a lot of companies did over-leverage themselves the past decade because

luke lloyd on all of that. you might have noticed a green group of stocks a little while ago.ebuilders. the argument is in this environment mortgage rates, a good many of them tied to things like the 10-year bond will actually look favorable. mortgage rates have slid four weeks in a row. they're looking to slice lower with the 10-year yield at 3.45%. that is the benchmark for a lot of these homes. homebuilders could be benefiting on a notion maybe, maybe for home activity, real estate in general, a lot of folks their ship has come back in. or it has just hit the fan. we'll have more after this. ♪ [laughing and giggling] (woman) hey dad. miss us? (vo) reflect on the past, celebrate the future. this season with audi. bath fitter is a better way to remodel your tub. precise measuring means the perfect fit. the bath fitter tub over tub process means no mess or stress. a custom-made tub and seamless wall mean a watertight fit. premium acrylic means it lasts a lifetime. and all this together means a great value. bath fitter. it just fits. visit bathfitter.com to book your free consu

out he worst years since 2008,nasdaq, down about 32% year-to-date joining me strategic partners luke lloyday risk stagflation recession for 2023 we're really not ready for that explain what your point is here. >> yeah, the american economy really got lays after 2009 in terms of productivity, so america got lazy because gold kas cheap companies didn't worry productivity and efficiency hired a ton of people to support growth leverage businesses that works ieb fine and dandy when interest rates are zero percent money is cheap but when crap hits the fan rates rise faster money isn't cheap anymore companies have to work on productivity and efficiency again, the first step is getting more efficient, is getting rid of employees that aren't productive, more layoffs means less spending in the economy, and that means less growth, that is what we've been seeing, discounting markets this year s&p 500 like said down 20% nasdaq down over 30, so sadly i think we have more to go sadly. cheryl: as you point out a jack welch theory of ceo look at 10% under upcoming make tough decisions, capitulation where i

stocks higher today and wall street attempt as year-end rebound and luke lloyd and john lonski are here. luke, i want to start with you. 2023, will it be any better for the markets? >> sadly, no. i think the next six months at least will be a lot like the past six months and you'll have the same bear market bounces and the key take away we're in a bear market going lower and some sort of recessions in 2023 seems to be the consensus view right now. what's up in the air is how deep that recession will be. so since the recession seems to be so visible, there's a lot of people hedging their possessions right now in the stock market. since anybody knows about the recession there won't be one and a contrary hedges on the market and not a shock and big drop like the covid crash and it'll be the exam same slow drawn out cuts and bruises adds up to being pretty bad. >> the grinch visited you last week. edward: john, you're a big picture guy. >> we had great conversation. edward: yeah, big picture guy looking at the market and what sectors do you believe might show growth in 2023 as we look at th

luke lloyd is back with us, we are at session lows, down 732 points. there are a lot of catalysts, to look at all the big backers right now, this idea that it is spreading technology it has been that way, but disproportionately following things, the nasdaq and the dominant issues have been cut in half. some issues like tesla in and out of the lows they reached during the pandemic, where are we going? >> got to stay away from long-duration stocks. short duration, make sure you own stocks to generate cash flow that have good valuations. stocks are down 80% in the tech sector. there's a reason they are down 80%, they don't make money and have it stream valuations the past 13 years because money was thrown at the wall and pushed valuation, the tech sector you have to be careful in the big tech names like apple hasn't seen the full drop yet but there is some positive light at the end of the tunnel. even though i have been pretty negative, 2023 doesn't look hot in the short-term over the next 6 month but this isn't the end all be all, there's usually game af

let's get reaction from luke lloyd and macro trend advisor mitch rochelle. what do you think the fallout for apple is for the rest of big tech? when the gop takes over, but also apple has stepped in it with what is happening with china and the lockdowns disabling the bluetooth features only in china and that will come up today. >> national security interest for us. 20% of the revenue comes from china and china is locked out right now and on top of that the majority of apple supply is made in china, has to be in good graces with china which isn't a good spot to be in if you are apple especially as the geopolitical realm continues to escalate. it could take 5 to 10 years for apple to move out of china, that's a big head when the going forward to try to get in good graces with congress but no doubt about it tim cook, he's playing good cop bad cop. conversations around the apps store going around for years, never seems to go anywhere but when you are going after elon musk and twitter getting a lot of attention at last thing apple needs are lawsuits for monopolis

joining me now strategic wealth partners investment strategist luke lloyd and macro trends advisors foundingartner mitch roschelle. great to have you both here. look i will start with you on all the data we got this morning, the data dump if you will. your take on a little bit of a slow down when it came to pce, that inflation number we got today. >> it's a start but we're not there yet. look maybe i'm missing something but i don't get why investors cheered and ran out of their way to buy stocks yesterday. the labor market is still very overheated. the only way to get inflation uncontrol for the long term economy and stock market is to destroy the labor market. stop consumers spending money on credit cards which the fed has yet to do. we basically didn't learn any new information other than the fact that powell said we will have to keep rates higher or longer which is not dovish, right? we still have a lot of slack in the labor market we have to get there. make sure we're getting bad data points. that will make investors do well going forward when we get bad data points. bad news is good new

luke lloyd joining us right now. look, where are we going from here? >> hey, neil. were tipping your hand to what we could be looking at, sure enough that does seem to be materializing. what is it? what has got wall street's goat? >> look, i really want to spread some christmas joy today so i don't want to be completely negative, right, but 2022 was the wakesup call for new economic environment. when economic policy is not dictated by free markets and is dictated by fiscal and monetary policy you get extreme boom and bust cycles. 2022 was the beginning of a down cycle as monetary policy tightening. i don't think the cycle is over going into 2023. these cycles feel good on the way up and really bad on the way down. we're probably halfway through this down cycle. so we have half more to go. i think one of the telltale signs of 2022 true capitulation in the markets when apple gets hammered. when the biggest, the baddest, of them all feels pain and panic that is a sign of true capitulation. we haven't seen anything like that. i don't think a bottom will be in unless we