lulu and linkedin, same sort of situation. lulu is get that boost today. linkedin, picks that are out performing the market. if you buy them when everybody else is running away. >> well, it's now the question on the mind of every investor. is 2014 going to be the year of stocks or bonds? rick reider is the chief investment office ef of fundamental fixed income of blackrock, the world's largest asset manager with $4 trillion in as sets under management. rib, welcome back. >> good to be here. >> what's your read not only on today but the way this week has gone? >> i think there are a couple of things. today's number, the way you described it as a weird number i think is right. i think there are a couple of factors at play. one is this continuing trend of you have an economy that's growing. it's just growing with not as many people and companies are not hiring as many people. i think that is a durable concept. you continue to see that play out. that being said, you know, there were some positives to this number. manufacturing construction was positive. transportation rate adjusted higher. i still think what this is going to do is keep the fed, going to policy easy. we think janet yellen will be dovish on tuesday which is going to be the case. but move towards where we think she's going to taper. but move more towards forward guidance. >> you don't think yellen is going to blink? >> no. i think there is a movement towards quantitative easing, clearly not creating significantly positive influence on the jobs in this country. and that it's structural and it's moving more towards tar getting inflationary expectations, targeting what indirectly targeting nominal gdp to get the cyclical influence moving. i would say one thing that the shift in terms of what's happening this week and what's happened this month. i think that you had skewed positions across the board. i think there were crowded positions. i think there were very -- you're seeing rebalancing. movement from equities into -- i do think people are becoming more and more comfortable with the bond market is more normalized now with the qe being a thing of the past. but i don't think -- i think you're seeing a big shifting in terms of where we're skewed positioning in the marketplace. i think part of what happened last year, avoid interest rate risk, avoid duration, oi "american idol" voavoid munis. it's going to give you a more normalized rate. >> josh brown. quick comment from you. it seems that talk on the street is that these huge moves add stocks into bonds and vice versa are being caused by a handful of large asset managers that are tactically managing portfolios of etfs. i'm sure you're reading the same research on it as i am. what's your thought on that? is that being over it is stasta understates? >> that is dramatically over stated. that is not the case. you're seeing -- >> i think i've read some of that research you're seeing some shifts. i think there were a couple of big asset allocation shifts but that's maybe we certainly don't see it within what we're doing here internally. i think people were -- i got very heavy on the equity market and seeing some rebalancing and profit taking. quite frankly, people being more comfortable with the bond market is more today. >> 266 is where we sit as we spooek. where is the ten-year going to go between now and the end of the year because it would -- if you think it's going to go a lot higher, then that would suggest that the stock market could do quite well. >> on this show we've talked about it. i think we're in a low rate paradigm for a long period of time. that being said, do i think rates will drift higher this year? i do. the one thing this number re-enforced today, it's not going to be straight line. it's going to be certainly for the next few weeks rates will be vel won taned. in fact, could even drift lower from here. that being said, you know, we still think growth in the economy is good and we're going to see rates that will drift higher from where we are today. but, you know, the fundamental backdrop of where we are in a rate paradigm is the rates will stay where they are. not much inflation in the system. we're going to be in a low rate world for the foreseeable future. >> sounds like this great weather has gotten the best of you this week. have a good weekend. >> thank you, you, too. >>> weiss, what do you think? >> i've got a pet peeve on technicals. ben characterized me incorrectly. i'm not looking for new highs. but technicals have nothing to do with what i do in equity investors generally do. the technicals don't matter if i bye more chrysler, more citi bank. >> it doesn't matter if they sway the overall direction of the market which you have to react to, right? >> i don't have to react to it. i react to fundamentals. i disagree with josh. we've got the s&p estimates up 10%. markets should track that. that gives us an up 10% market. corporate -- >> up 10% for the full year. >> full year. >> i'm talking about q1 which i would argue is probably what people are more focus and than the full year at the current moment. >> to their detriment -- >> maybe, maybe. >> i pick the market over the next day, next week, next two months. i pick companies. and companies have good fundamentals are going to move and corporate balance sheets, corporate earnings models have better situated than ever. >> steve, the only problem with that is revenue growth is now 0% for the full year. how do you reconcile -- how much more benefit are we getting from expanded margins and how much more benefits -- >> how much money have you made following what strategists and economists have said? have they been a primary input for you? >> i'm not sure that's an answer to my question. >> i'll give you the answer. >> how much is it going to give you in terms of multiple expansion or profit margin expansion? i'm not sure there's much room in either one. >> if the market just tracks the earnings growth, we're going to get a 10% increase in the market based upon broad estimates, consensus estimates on the s&p. >> not necessarily. >> i don't need multiple expansion. >> not necessarily. you have 20% earnings growth in 1994? you had a flat market. anything can happen. >> talking about a much different global -- >> it's actually a fairly similar set-up. >> we are coming off historically low lows. >> you guys in the middle of this have an opinion on this? did you get your seetsz at stub hub, by the way, or were they comped? >> i tend to be on steve's side on this of though because we look at the market a lot more -- i'm not saying you're wrong. >> i'm playing devil's advocate because 10% earn gsz growth does not ensure 10% s&p growth. >> part of the role is to handicap what that means in terms of the market. >> sure. >> and we're constantly, judge, looking for where is the fast money going right now. so reider at blackrock is fast money even though they're managing a trillion dollars. part of their etfs in particular, whatever it is, is a big number, a lot of those are very much swinging the market when those etfs go into your point, josh, your point, steve. >> okay. >>> coming up, our call of the day has lululemon shares in the green but still down double digits on the green. the analyst who upgraded that name today and top tech investor who got in earlien on names like twitter, netflix, and kayak, what he thinks the next big tech i prk o will be. o will be. customizable charts, powerful screening tools, and guaranteed one-second trades. and at the center of it all is a surprisingly low price -- just $7.95. in fact, fidelity gives you lower trade commissions than schwab, td ameritrade, and e-trade. i'm monica santiago of fidelity investments, and low fees and commissions are another reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. afghanistan, in 2009. orbiting the moon in 1971. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection. and because usaa's commitment to serve current and former military members and their families is without equal. begin your legacy. get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. time report." we have another week on wall street but there were some stocks that were able to outperform primarily due to upbeat earnings. akamai tech and michael kors and oh really to the upside after posting strong quarterly earnings. o'reilly hitting a record high. losers, verisign forecast. bearish outlook in production in spending in 2014. that's why that stock is lower. cigna posting weaker quarterly earnings and forecast its full-year outlook below street estimates. cigna one of the big losers today down around 8%. scotting back to you. >> weiss, what do you want to trade off that list? >> look at chesapeake. i'm not short, haven't been short for a while. this is what i was talking about before. they still have somewhat of a balance sheet, no danger of violating any covenants. but they had to sell some better assets thand can't spend as they used to because they still have to service the debt. it's not a name i would be playing here. >> pete? >> well, i look at akamai. when you look at what they were able to deliver on the quarter and the stock, this stock has been a widow maker for a long time. it's been hit so many times to the downside it's finally getting an upside move everybody was expecting. when they started to shift around, a lot of people think will feed into them, names like apple and those, this is a stock that finally looks like it found its footing and there is some upside. >> what a week for twitter. the company delivering its first ever earnings report. the stock taking a pretty good beating as well. what is a big investor think about that company and the other social media names? let's bring in todd chafee live in san francisco. todd, welcome. it's great to welcome you to cnbc today. >> hi, scott. >> you guys were one of the first investors in twitter. now posted first results. what do you think? >> i think the numbers look good in terms of the revenue and ebitda growth looks fantastic. obviously there are some things that spook in the street in terms of the user growth and the engagement metrics. overall, it's a little bit of a relief, frankly. if they had hit every single number right in the money the thing would have shot -- the stock would have shot up further. a bit of relief in some respects. >> one report yesterday said great quarter aside of the metric. would you judge that as someone in early and now who has a position roughly worth a billion dollars or so as fair, or not? >> i think it's a key metric. it's one of many metrics. i think that the real trick with twitter is to step back and really understand what's happening in the bigger picture and not get too focused on one quarter and one specific metric. i think if you're really want to play twitter properly you have to step back and see what's happening in the broader landscape and see that it's actually becoming one of the big web utilities out there like google and facebook and amazon. >> todd, jon najarian here. quick question about the lock-up. that's what everybody is talking about after this disappointing earnings drove the stock through 50. now it's seeing a bit of a rebound today. but we've still got that lock-up. the first one is not so big. the second one, very large. how worried are you and what kind of buzz are you hearing from the valley about it? >> yeah, i'm not worried about all. i think most of the big institutional holders like us see the long-term play here. twitter is going to be a growth story for five to ten years. and the real secret to making money as a venture capitalist is not exiting at the lock-up but to hold on to the stock and ride that growth for many years. >> hey, it's josh brown. i'm curious your thoughts. twitter is now 230 million users. linkedin is about 277. which one gets to a xwl first? which one has the more defense i believe massive market cap right now? >> i think -- they're both two interesting properties. i think twitter has 240 million monthly active users. and linkedin as a nice position, nice niche as -- think about what we have is facebook is the dominant social network. linkedin is the dominant business network. and twitter is the dominant information network and growing. i think if linkedin executes well i think they can build that property into a durable asset. twitter has a much bigger footprint and in the long term i think twitter can be well over 100 billion in market cap. >> what do you think is winning the war, if you will, on mobile? and whose prospects are the best? and it can be someone other than the stocks we've mentioned already. >> yeah, i think mobile is an interesting animal. i think people have a tendency to isolate it and think of it as a unique animal. it's actually just one more screen. we've got your pc. you've got your tablet. you've got your handheld devices. so in the mobile space, you know, i like twitter pros specs. it's a very concise format for content. facebook, frankly, zuckerberg one of the smartest things he did was buy instagram to keep that company relevant. i think there is real facebook fatigue out there but instagram is a great asset that they've acquired and it will keep them relevant. you know, i think one of our portfolio companies snapchat is coming up very quickly. and i think that will be a real powerful company going forward. >> what would you say as a vc guy about the valuation of some of these companies out in the valley? >> are they overstretched? >> you know, multiples are high. it's really a tricky game to play. you know, the investing in high growth tech stocks, both in the private markets and the public markets, it's a challenging game. i think the way to play it is kind of the way wayne gretzky used to play hockey, which, is you know, people ask why he was so great and he said, well, most guys skate to where the puck is. i skate to where the puck is going. and you kind of have to do that with tech stocks that are growing like this. the growth is so high it's actually -- you have to figure out where these companies are going, if you're going to play those companies properly. you know, i think the market is rewarding these companies because the exceptional growth in the top line and the business models are great. if you look at the ebitda margins on these companies they're really powerful. so they're definitely premium multiples across the board. and i think it's one of the things where, you know, it's going to be a function of the overall market. i think the overall market is pretty frothy right now. we could see multiple compression. but at the end of the day these are companies that can grow into power houses like google. and you know, i have a $390 billion market cap. >> easier said than done being as intuitive as the great one, though, right? >> absolutely. i think the trick is to step back and look at the landscape and see what's really happening out there. you really have -- think about the big monsters out there with google, amazon, and facebook. those are the big three with market caps over 100 billion. and i think those xacompanies a going continue to do well for quite some time. i think twitter has a chance to be another one of those players. i'm not sure about linkedin. i think it's going to be a function of execution for linkedin. >> great insight, todd. welcome to cnbc. look forward to having you back. guys? >> you know, i don't disagree with him. it's not where i play in the valuation universe but i do think the models are growing. i do think the stories aren't over. just a question of what you pay for it and how much risk you're willing to tolerate. i like the linkedin model because it's unique in terms of social network. >> i line the ownership fact of things. when you talk about growth who owns what area. netflix, life lock is another one where he's looking at names that you can't get your arms around the multiples right now but you can see the growth and where they're going to continue to grow and why there's still a lot of upside but you've got to be able to understand the risk that you have in front of you. >> i like facebook a lot, judge. the reason i do is that zuckerberg and that team is doing what everybody wants apple to do send that is to go out and ma acquisitions and build it. the fact they're out there creating this paper which is virtually flip board right there on your facebook, that's finn phenomenal. people are going to love that. keep your eye on i'd. >>> lululemon shares, thanks to an up dade. an analyst who made that call next. does he see something that everyone else is simply missing? >>> but first, najarian brothers are facing off on one stock hitting a record high today. you will decide the winner. which najarian is your favorite? >> that's right. >> we had to have you guys face-off against each other because we can't trust the voting when one of you guys are not in it. that and must have more straight ahead. in today's market, a lot can happen in a second. with fidelity's guaranteed one-second trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 market centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. it's all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. i'm derrick chan of fidelity investments. our one-second trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. call or click to open your fidelity account today. in a world that's changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. the williams company soarsing to an all-time high. two hedge funds that take business positions in the natgas company. should you follow the smart money? we have brother on brother debate. pete is the bull. jon's the bear. neither one of you can vote for the other guy. 1:30 on the clock. >> when you look at williams this is a lot of different reasons why this stock has gone to the upside. this whole pipeline exposure that they've got, you look at the yields, jon, where you continue to grow this yield. 18% year over year. you're talking about a 5 1/2, 6% yield right now. that's pretty intriguing. they're going to return that money. then you look at where's the demand right now. the demand is no longer from the gulf. it's all over the united states. it's all over the spots. they've got to be -- they're the ones moving that oil all around the rest of the country. so i think for that reason, right now they're really positioned well. but it really comes down to how do they continue to grow to the upside? i think they grow to the upside because as contracts start to come into the picture now, as folks are drilling all over the place, as those contracts come up they're going to be able to raise the prices, lock them? >> that's one of the problems, though, pete. as you know we had it for unusual activity and the viewers picked this one for an argument perhaps because of that. stock popped $2. it's a new 52-week high. i think that the demand around the country has been immediate because of weather. i think that burns off over time here. no pun intended for the natural gas. i think it pulls back and then maybe you get a better entry around 39d instead of up here at 42. i like the company. i think management is doing things right. i like the activists in there, too. but now it's buy room, sell rumors. stock has already move. >> when you look at this for the longer term you can hold on to it for yield right now. look at the longer term, it shows me as the contracts come in from all various shale plays, some newer, they're going to get the contracts five and ten-year contracts and it's going to be huge money. >> don't look at me, counselor. >> come on, judge. >> looking a the jury box. i can't help you, man. >> i have a little money in my pocket. >> keep it fair, judge. >> josh brown, who made the more compelling argument? >> i agree with the armenian in the gotee. >> wait a minute. >> wmb historically has a huge correlation with ung and with the natural gas strip in general. ung has far outstripped wmb over the last year. 30% versus this stock playing catchup. more room to the upside. >> tell us who you think won that debate. use the #bull or #bear. we're going to give you the results as we always do at the end of the show. >>> shares of lululemon falling nearly 35% in the last three months but the retailer got a break today after rbc capital upgraded it to outperform. joining us now on the phone is the man behind it, howard tuban soft line's analyst. howard, welcome. >> thanks. >> what has lululemon done to justify this upgrade? >> well, i think it's a combination of a bunch of things. first, as you said, stocks have been hammered here which makes the valuation more interesting and entry point more interesting. but speaking to the fundamentals, they've completely rejiggered their management team. they went through a lot of management change last year. now a new team in place. and we got to spend some time with one of the members of the new team, the new chief product officer who we liked. we like very much. we think she will be an asset to the company. and we also did some survey work on the brand. we've heard a lot about how, you know, the lululemon brand could be tarnished and the issues of 2013 may have hurt 2 t. brand. we surveyed 350 women who know and wear the product and the result of that survey came back very positive. we're pretty comfortable that the brand remains strong. valuations are attractive. as a results turn more positive in 2014 is a better year versus 2013. >> you would admit though that some of these issues are going to take a longer time potentially to recover from, you know, pr is not an easy thing to turn around over night. at the same time, when the under armours, nikes, of thethers are coming into the ball game. not just coming into the ball game. to say it more, you know, stronger, they're throwing fast balls up and in at lululemon right now. >> yeah, i mean, that's fair. there certainly is competition out there. but, you know, if we look at our survey and we asked our respondents, what other brands of athletic apparel they wear, nike came up, under armour came up, adidas came up. you know, kind of the new up and coming players didn't really show up all that high in terms of what our respondents said like athleta or smaller yoga brands. very small percentage of respondents wear those brands and that merchandise. it seems like there is more competition but maybe the demographic lulu serves is a different demographic or the demographic that some of the new yoga brands cater to is different and they don't seem to be, at least in in point, eating away at lulu's market share. >> interesting call. a bold one, no doubt about that. thanks for coming on and defending it. >> you got it. thanks. >> what do we think about this? >> broken momentum stock. going from 50% growth last year to something closer to 18 or 20% growth. i don't think this one is bottomed yet. >> i think it's worth doing that survey versus surveying deer dealers, women wearing yoga wear. everybody hates it. i've been looking at it. i think it may be reasonable. i think it's early but downside is minimal. >> there will be a time to buy. this downtrend -- >> it's a bold, bold, bold call to make today. >> it is. especially when you have other firms going -- you have almost -- i'm not going to say every firm. a great number of firms either going the at there way or even those that try to get bullish capitul
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