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May 27, 2015
05/15
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what is the macro number when you look at household debt in the u.s. today and in 2008 prior to the recession? >> guest: it is primarily about household debt. the numbers if you look from 2000 2007 the household over time julia did to the debt that was more than double the household debt to gdp numbers over this time book of. this is a huge amount we had never seen such a rise over such a short period of time and the consequences were obviously extremely negative. having said that this isn't the only time this has happened and that is part of the point we try to make in the book is that these episodes of the quick run-up in debt especially household debt followed by the deep long recession we had in the u.s. we have seen this elsewhere as well. europe, for example correctly is going through the dynamics generated for the run-up to the different parts of europe. having said that, those element are present even in the data that wouldn't be household debt so for example it turns to be more sovereign. problem is essentially the same which is of which is th
what is the macro number when you look at household debt in the u.s. today and in 2008 prior to the recession? >> guest: it is primarily about household debt. the numbers if you look from 2000 2007 the household over time julia did to the debt that was more than double the household debt to gdp numbers over this time book of. this is a huge amount we had never seen such a rise over such a short period of time and the consequences were obviously extremely negative. having said that this...
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May 29, 2015
05/15
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BLOOMBERG
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carl: it makes sense from a macro perspective. the businesses seeing demand for capital investments, r&d spending, capital expenditure, infrastructure, they are facing capacity constraints. that's why they are investing. other businesses that are seeing slack activity, like a lot of manufacturing sector, there something out investing because there is not the need to. alix: what part of that winds of heaven to do with the fed taking a macro look at it, as we see -- having to do with the fed taking a macro look at it, as we see. does that make dividends not as attractive? tom: i don't think the fed will try to tighten conditions. they want to have some dry powder, but still fairly easy monetary conditions. in other words, they are essentially trying to confirm reflation area environment. that is really bullish for capital spending oriented companies. alix: we have a lot more to talk about, including what stocks you are interested in. joining me, as always. have a wonderful weekend. much more with timely, -- tom stock picks right aft
carl: it makes sense from a macro perspective. the businesses seeing demand for capital investments, r&d spending, capital expenditure, infrastructure, they are facing capacity constraints. that's why they are investing. other businesses that are seeing slack activity, like a lot of manufacturing sector, there something out investing because there is not the need to. alix: what part of that winds of heaven to do with the fed taking a macro look at it, as we see -- having to do with the fed...
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May 20, 2015
05/15
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. >> there is a macro piece to it and home depot is executing perfectly. and just as wal-mart problems are internal and skeshal. i'm court near megan. >>> and housing starts rose to a 7 year high, a gain of about 20% from a month earlier the highest reading since november of 2007 and the commerce department reporting that new application for building permit increased about 10%. later in the program we'll take a look at the new technology getting home bielders excited in t stricken california. >>> and hope over all economic growth in the second quarter following the weak start to the year as steve liesman first t there may be a big problem with the way government has been calculate first qur growth and now more and more economists are agreeing. >> a big debate has erupted in the economic world over u.s. gdp is reported correctly, showing first quarter growth has been persistently smaller than the other quarters. and citing cnbc in research said current first quarter growth would be at 1.8% not the gove reported 0.2% aptd that is prompted economists to down
. >> there is a macro piece to it and home depot is executing perfectly. and just as wal-mart problems are internal and skeshal. i'm court near megan. >>> and housing starts rose to a 7 year high, a gain of about 20% from a month earlier the highest reading since november of 2007 and the commerce department reporting that new application for building permit increased about 10%. later in the program we'll take a look at the new technology getting home bielders excited in t...
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May 27, 2015
05/15
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what is the macro number when you look at the household debt in the u.s. today. >> it's barely about it rarely about household debt and talking about the u.s. the number for the u.s. if you look at the run-up from 2000 to 2007 the household related was more than doubling of household debt to gdp numbers. the consequences are obviously were obviously extremely negative. having said that this this isn't the only time that this has happened in the world and that is part of the point that we tried to make in the book in the run-up followed by the deep long recession that we had in the u.s.. we have seen this in europe for example currently going through very similar dynamics generated by a similar run-up in the private debt in different parts of europe. >> does a woman for president event in debt that may not be household debt so it tends to be more sovereign debt the problem is the same which is that it's having trouble dealing with the realization that there was excess and because it wasn't sort of written down quickly enough in the amount that it needed to
what is the macro number when you look at the household debt in the u.s. today. >> it's barely about it rarely about household debt and talking about the u.s. the number for the u.s. if you look at the run-up from 2000 to 2007 the household related was more than doubling of household debt to gdp numbers. the consequences are obviously were obviously extremely negative. having said that this this isn't the only time that this has happened in the world and that is part of the point that we...
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May 26, 2015
05/15
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BLOOMBERG
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kevin: everything is trading on the macro view.k at the options, it's really the s&p 500, the russell 2000, as well as a fix, and you see the investor demand for that, because it has been an asset sense 2008. and they just released weekly options on the vicks as well as two new -- weekly options on the options.ell as two new that is what is really happening in the marketplace. julie: there's also a case at you made that we should be watching capital flows in the market. explain what you mean by that. seeingwhat we mean is where all the capital is flowing macro wise. out of the united states, over to asia, to europe. it -- it's not macro economic use -- news. the liquidity is out there. matter whereust a it is going. i want to talk about your individual trade today, because we see onchoppiness the macro level, you are looking google and why? kevin: they do not pay out a dividend to shareholders, but tech as such a strong space, it is something people can feel comfortable about the we are looking to sell 2% out of the money call opti
kevin: everything is trading on the macro view.k at the options, it's really the s&p 500, the russell 2000, as well as a fix, and you see the investor demand for that, because it has been an asset sense 2008. and they just released weekly options on the vicks as well as two new -- weekly options on the options.ell as two new that is what is really happening in the marketplace. julie: there's also a case at you made that we should be watching capital flows in the market. explain what you...
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May 6, 2015
05/15
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michael: these are fertile macro environments.retsina basis points and bill gross called it the trade of the century. -- german rates are 10 basis points. i think we have moved into an environment where you are a seller on rallies, not a buyer on bit. t. in the last two weeks the bull market has ended and the bear market has started. in rates. i do not know when that has a major impact on credit or equity, i think it will have a minor impact until the fed moves it. erik: at what point do you go all in on this view? michael: things have moved so far, so fast that you wait for some correction and an you start re-shorting rates erik:. relative to how you felt about things in the post crisis time how much condition -- conviction you have about what you just explained? michael: we have seen the highest in prices in fixed income securities. we are 5, 6 points away from some of those prices. mi making a huge claim that german boones when i go back to four basis points. we have seen a probably low yield in 30 year treasuries for the cycle
michael: these are fertile macro environments.retsina basis points and bill gross called it the trade of the century. -- german rates are 10 basis points. i think we have moved into an environment where you are a seller on rallies, not a buyer on bit. t. in the last two weeks the bull market has ended and the bear market has started. in rates. i do not know when that has a major impact on credit or equity, i think it will have a minor impact until the fed moves it. erik: at what point do you go...
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May 18, 2015
05/15
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one way, at the macro level that we integrate operations at the fbi is to the integration of our fusion cell model. it allows us to integrate the intelligence, analysis, and operations i having the analysts and special agents, located. these analysts evaluate both national and international threats and provide intelligence on current and emerging threats to our field offices as well as other agencies. within t-foss, we had the element of having financial analysts as part of that model. we are also addressing and taking advantage of the threat by using state and local partners. we also work with the fusion centers, the intelligence community, and abroad. with regards to the financial aspects of terrorism, the importance of partnerships with the private sector, particularly the financial industry, is incredible. i want to touch on a few points regarding private sector partnerships. partnering with the private sector has been a focus since long before i got here, but one i have continued to champion since i arrived. so how do we encompass that? it is to a rigorous schedule of outreach and
one way, at the macro level that we integrate operations at the fbi is to the integration of our fusion cell model. it allows us to integrate the intelligence, analysis, and operations i having the analysts and special agents, located. these analysts evaluate both national and international threats and provide intelligence on current and emerging threats to our field offices as well as other agencies. within t-foss, we had the element of having financial analysts as part of that model. we are...
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May 27, 2015
05/15
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system as a whole when we talk about the provincial regulation that would promote stability in the macro economy and the financial system. we need to incorporate these feedbacks we talked about how the negative consequences of financial contracts the way we write and today. but currently the taxi and the story regime in the pico pushes them more so that's what we need to move away from. it is feasible that we need to change these taxation aspects. one way to implement this is very straightforward for the case of the u.s. and allied me just quickly mention that and then i will say a few words on the political aspect of things. we already have a situation where just to keep on with the market example, we already have a situation where the mortgage market by and large is defined by the government through freddie and fannie so it's not like the government is out of the market as we have it. it is very much in it and it's in it from the taxation site as well as i talked about from the market interest. to change the situation, the government can judge the market to go in the right direction. s
system as a whole when we talk about the provincial regulation that would promote stability in the macro economy and the financial system. we need to incorporate these feedbacks we talked about how the negative consequences of financial contracts the way we write and today. but currently the taxi and the story regime in the pico pushes them more so that's what we need to move away from. it is feasible that we need to change these taxation aspects. one way to implement this is very...
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May 19, 2015
05/15
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we are working while treasury but in the macro sense, it is important we have a coordinated policy to make sure we don't allow the terrorist state to foreign. we join together and that is somewhat related to the earlier point. i would welcome your views on how we increase collaboration on the period >> unfortunately we don't have anyone from the treasury or his state department with regard to sanctions. obviously, our partnership with hero paul and interpol and other national organizations is not necessarily the same approach comes at the same collaboration with al qaeda and other threats. this presents an interesting challenge as the previous individual acknowledged. i definitely agree this has become the whole of government approach. the line of effort targeting finances as a whole of government approach for the united states in which we use every tool within our toolbox whether it is sanctions, the tactical side of the fbi or other federal agencies as well. yes we need to look at sanctions. guess we need to look at other avenues in which they are fund-raising as well. it is no one
we are working while treasury but in the macro sense, it is important we have a coordinated policy to make sure we don't allow the terrorist state to foreign. we join together and that is somewhat related to the earlier point. i would welcome your views on how we increase collaboration on the period >> unfortunately we don't have anyone from the treasury or his state department with regard to sanctions. obviously, our partnership with hero paul and interpol and other national...
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May 18, 2015
05/15
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BLOOMBERG
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beyond just the macro retail. not just broad retailers, but the company specific issues.e do get walmart in tjx tomorrow. joe: walmart tends to be more assisted with low-income tumors, someill give us macroeconomic -- low income consumers, but will give us some more macroeconomic numbers. the juicy got all of goods that were delayed to the other retailers. that is something to look at as well. and the goldman sachs noted that oil, talking about seeing wti or the breakeven for shell companies around 50, they .asically need lower oil prices they are talking about pioneer sales, they are going to be the m&a takeout. wast -- joe: i got this interesting from goldman, too, especially since they had their equity guys make the pre-long-term call about oil prices. they are saying by the end of the decade they are looking at $50 in oil. obviously, you have to look -- you have to be skeptical of any call that is looking at the year 2020, because who really knows? but they are saying basically there is a new regime shift in oil and that this is a thing. alix: and they made interestin
beyond just the macro retail. not just broad retailers, but the company specific issues.e do get walmart in tjx tomorrow. joe: walmart tends to be more assisted with low-income tumors, someill give us macroeconomic -- low income consumers, but will give us some more macroeconomic numbers. the juicy got all of goods that were delayed to the other retailers. that is something to look at as well. and the goldman sachs noted that oil, talking about seeing wti or the breakeven for shell companies...
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May 18, 2015
05/15
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the on the macro story. alix: it could be the company's specific issues. walmart and -- joe: walmart tends to be associated with low-end consumers but it will likely give us a lot more macroeconomic insight than urban outfitters. see if itwe will benefited from the port strikes because they got the juicy goods that were delayed to other retailers. let me tell you something else that caught my eye today. a goldman sachs note about oil. about 50.ll see wti they need lower oil prices to make money. m&a, eog, pioneer. the shells, mother frackers, they will be the m&a take out. interesting fort will be goldman because they had their equity guys make this long-term call about oil prices. we are now in a permanently lower era of prices. by the end of the decade, they are looking at $50 in oil. you have to be skeptical of any call looking at 2020. because who really knows? normal,g in this new is a permanent thing. it will not be a bounce back. is a permanent thing. alix: the amount of days it takes when you start drilling to total depth is about 10 days. it used
the on the macro story. alix: it could be the company's specific issues. walmart and -- joe: walmart tends to be associated with low-end consumers but it will likely give us a lot more macroeconomic insight than urban outfitters. see if itwe will benefited from the port strikes because they got the juicy goods that were delayed to other retailers. let me tell you something else that caught my eye today. a goldman sachs note about oil. about 50.ll see wti they need lower oil prices to make...
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May 19, 2015
05/15
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college macro textbook this is bad for equities.he s&p 500 does not seem to have taken college macro. brian harvard on the hill. you say context on interest rates matters more than the level. brian: rates are low for a reason. tom touched on the first block, we have been seeing unprecedented slow economic growth. that is why rates are low. we have forgotten the equation of investing. economy improves, interest rates go up. that is good. we have reared an entire generation that inks higher rates are bad and lower rates mean good. it is the opposite. that is why 2015 will be a year of volatility. the fed has to act because things are getting better. look at the numbers. we think it will happen. there will be volatility in the market. tom: the critical strategy, two year 10 year, 30 year bonds. what paper does your world care about? they go farther out than two year. brian: we focus with respect to the correlation of gdp to 10 year treasury. in the old days we looked at the 30 year. how quaint. 30 year paper is way too long. tom: the 1
college macro textbook this is bad for equities.he s&p 500 does not seem to have taken college macro. brian harvard on the hill. you say context on interest rates matters more than the level. brian: rates are low for a reason. tom touched on the first block, we have been seeing unprecedented slow economic growth. that is why rates are low. we have forgotten the equation of investing. economy improves, interest rates go up. that is good. we have reared an entire generation that inks higher...
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May 28, 2015
05/15
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macro track. >> i think you're seeing tourist flows there and the u.s. back in positive territory and this is a good sign to give investors confidence. but for michael cores it was a slightly different story. suffering from diffe challenges. it warranted current quarter and results would fall well below forecast and turning in the first negative comparable sales result that sent shares plummeting. the handbag sengtor could experience low growth trends. tourism was a negative impact and watches slowing growth and shipping delays so they revealed different information and we see sand consumer retail land a tale of two stories. >> but others look at michael kors and see company specific issues. one of which is the potential soefr saturation of the brand in the u.s. while few expects cores previous trend of high double-digit comparable sales growth to continue forever, some think the brand is losing the cache among consumers in the biggest market. the good news for kors is most think there is s glo share to be gained. randall koenig tells investors cors coul
macro track. >> i think you're seeing tourist flows there and the u.s. back in positive territory and this is a good sign to give investors confidence. but for michael cores it was a slightly different story. suffering from diffe challenges. it warranted current quarter and results would fall well below forecast and turning in the first negative comparable sales result that sent shares plummeting. the handbag sengtor could experience low growth trends. tourism was a negative impact and...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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May 16, 2015
05/15
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think we have to look at this question in a couple of important ways that were not mentioned we're macromanaged micro solutions each individual and family makes their own individual choices where to live and not necessarily forced out i've had dental patient for 45 years they're all different income levels and cost is a factor but there's a lot of things that under the influence people's choices the size of the housing where we can find it at the cost having children or not where can i go if unite not curling making what i want or move to a place there's work for my skill set the 60 thousand people that leave san francisco every year we've heard in the statistics in a logical way had this is impounded we're a tiny peninsula with water on 3 sides we're not going to be annexing land soon many of the people i'll give you records from my charts are moved to the pacifica daily city
think we have to look at this question in a couple of important ways that were not mentioned we're macromanaged micro solutions each individual and family makes their own individual choices where to live and not necessarily forced out i've had dental patient for 45 years they're all different income levels and cost is a factor but there's a lot of things that under the influence people's choices the size of the housing where we can find it at the cost having children or not where can i go if...
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May 17, 2015
05/15
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i will not have a conversation with him about macro economics.hter] [applause] i'm going to have a conversation with him about how i tried to understand what it is that my father had gone through. how issues of -- that were specific to him, created his difficulties in his relationships with his children, so that i could forgive him. this is what i mean -- this is where i agree with bob, this is not an either/or conversation. it is a both/and. the reason we get trapped in an either/or conversation is all too often, not arthur, but those who have argued against a safety net, or argued against government programs, have used the rationale that character matters, family matters, values matter, as a rationale for the disinvestment of public goods that took place over the course of 20 to 30 years. if, in fact, the most important thing is character and parents then it is ok if we do not have band and music at school -- that is the argument you will hear. there are immigrant kids who are learning at schools that are much worse, and we are spending huge am
i will not have a conversation with him about macro economics.hter] [applause] i'm going to have a conversation with him about how i tried to understand what it is that my father had gone through. how issues of -- that were specific to him, created his difficulties in his relationships with his children, so that i could forgive him. this is what i mean -- this is where i agree with bob, this is not an either/or conversation. it is a both/and. the reason we get trapped in an either/or...
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May 15, 2015
05/15
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but then at the macro level. not just when we're talking about counterterrorism but talking about all criminal activity, trabs national organized crime as well, we need to continue to look at the a.m.l. and try to readjust those. >> thank you. my question is somewhat probably linked to the previous question. i remember a line in the wire, follow drones and you get junkies. but one of the goals of isis and isil is a caliphate in a state. i think last december, a german journalist was allowed access and gave some open source reports of what was happening in there, he referred to a security system, a social welfare system a school system which are the signs of an economy and the formation of a state. yet we've seen with proper success in other conflicts, you can strangle an economy by economic sanctions as effectively as by military intervention. my question from an e.u. perspective, we do as we said to admiral roberts, we share the same threat, the e.u. and the u.s., we're fighting the same enemy. probably the e.u.
but then at the macro level. not just when we're talking about counterterrorism but talking about all criminal activity, trabs national organized crime as well, we need to continue to look at the a.m.l. and try to readjust those. >> thank you. my question is somewhat probably linked to the previous question. i remember a line in the wire, follow drones and you get junkies. but one of the goals of isis and isil is a caliphate in a state. i think last december, a german journalist was...
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May 13, 2015
05/15
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CNBC
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this is global macro pushing on the market and saying that the headline is getting crushed and is it signaling trouble? no it's saying that people are overpositioned before. >> well, this is a big unwind at the macro trade going on out there. that's like you said, a euro, unwinding the euro short. and then the german rates and the volatility that we have seen in the bond market is causing big funds to unwind this trade. that being said i think today was a little bit different because we saw the retail sales number pull a 0.0 and nobody was expecting that. when you add to the chicago fed models and the atlanta fed modsel models two quarters are 0.0. i would be concerned at the very least that the fed is on hold. >> you think is driven by the weakness in the economy as opposed to what's going on in europe? >> yes. i think today the dollar move movement was driven by the u.s. economy. >> what do you do with rates that are backing up which don't make sense in the context of what you're saying? >> i think it's because funds are unwinding. when you look at the big funds they manage the pos
this is global macro pushing on the market and saying that the headline is getting crushed and is it signaling trouble? no it's saying that people are overpositioned before. >> well, this is a big unwind at the macro trade going on out there. that's like you said, a euro, unwinding the euro short. and then the german rates and the volatility that we have seen in the bond market is causing big funds to unwind this trade. that being said i think today was a little bit different because we...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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May 28, 2015
05/15
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SFGTV
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another proposal comes in and you all recommend that with only we should revisit at the time but on the macro if we find one that is suitable we should. >> so is there any other discussion on just the question on who we ought to retain a research within a budget possible budget limitations of $20,000 ? or. >> or 25 i think. >> commissioner vice president andrews indicated that in the vetting process from the two of you saw some reason the $25,000 amount would be predicament given the needs of two 25. >> i don't think we need to really say 20 or nothing i go for the discretion between the two of you that commissioner vice president andrews suggests. >> keeping in mind i certainly have a fiscal head i don't want to put
another proposal comes in and you all recommend that with only we should revisit at the time but on the macro if we find one that is suitable we should. >> so is there any other discussion on just the question on who we ought to retain a research within a budget possible budget limitations of $20,000 ? or. >> or 25 i think. >> commissioner vice president andrews indicated that in the vetting process from the two of you saw some reason the $25,000 amount would be predicament...
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May 16, 2015
05/15
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at the macro level is through the creation of the fusion sell model to integrate the intelligence of operations to have the analyst and special agent code located addressing the threat. both national and international to provide intelligence on the current in the emerging threat to the field offices. we add the additional element as part of the model. barrasso addressing to stay ahead of the threat was state local and federal partners throughout the 56 field offices. real also work with the intelligence community. with regards to the financial aspects of parenting the importance of partnerships with the private sector is critical for that. so with private sector partnerships but what i have continued to do to be and. with their private sector partners to have a trading at aubrey g. and trading. so the financial industry's supporting financial activity so what has then reported ever known and suspected terrorist here and abroad. said to have other intelligence that is critical turgid divide with suspected terrorists. natalie to have that nativity but abroad as well. in conjunction wit
at the macro level is through the creation of the fusion sell model to integrate the intelligence of operations to have the analyst and special agent code located addressing the threat. both national and international to provide intelligence on the current in the emerging threat to the field offices. we add the additional element as part of the model. barrasso addressing to stay ahead of the threat was state local and federal partners throughout the 56 field offices. real also work with the...
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May 11, 2015
05/15
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CNBC
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there are some things that look good to me like financials, but overall, from a macro standpoint, i amtill not fully convinced that this is the next leg higher. >> time to be buying stocks or no? >> i think it is. i think you can go slowly. what caught people by surprise recently was the backup, not so much in our race, but the backup in european sovereign rates. nobody expected that, they've been out there for such a short time. >> our rates got up there relative from where they were in a pretty quick period of time. >> yep. >> before pulling back. late last week, i think the tenure touched 230 for a moment, here we are in 2017 -- >> here's why i like it. because if there's any pain, we haven't seen any pain equitieeq. the people that own debt, they're feeling so much more pain right now and they'll continue to feel it as rates back up. so i still like equity market, the earnings season, surprising everybody by its strength. i think we're in a good place. >> we're reminded of this global liquidity push. china cuts rates. their stock market had like the worst week in five years last we
there are some things that look good to me like financials, but overall, from a macro standpoint, i amtill not fully convinced that this is the next leg higher. >> time to be buying stocks or no? >> i think it is. i think you can go slowly. what caught people by surprise recently was the backup, not so much in our race, but the backup in european sovereign rates. nobody expected that, they've been out there for such a short time. >> our rates got up there relative from where...
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May 1, 2015
05/15
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james: i'm very distrustful of these macro ships. i think the ecb will run out of money long before the qe program is finished. for example, domestic banks are doing much better than most people have given them credit for in the eurozone. intesa these are companies which will be less risky. there are some fantastic components manufacturers in the automobile sector. that is another area where i will be putting money. the areas i'm nervous of our high leverage companies dependent on the maintenance of lower rates. jonathan: that is one side of the story. the other side is the politics. if i look at the banks in europe, there is going to be a problem when these governments get into power and try to protect --people just won't pay their loans back. james: i look at economies like spain and i see fantastic news in economic growth. if you said to me, how do we solve the problems of europe, it is through solid growth, productivity improvements continued expansion of output. spain is delivering. jonathan: james bevan is going to stay with us
james: i'm very distrustful of these macro ships. i think the ecb will run out of money long before the qe program is finished. for example, domestic banks are doing much better than most people have given them credit for in the eurozone. intesa these are companies which will be less risky. there are some fantastic components manufacturers in the automobile sector. that is another area where i will be putting money. the areas i'm nervous of our high leverage companies dependent on the...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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May 11, 2015
05/15
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report on those issues because as we've said that is one thing to see the goals are being met at the macro 11 but when i drill down it is liquor the difficulty it might look go and rosy but when you drilled it may not be pretty that's what i care about i appreciate the comments i hordes those comments for the past month that's why i keep bring it up to the commission so i'm glad that someone was not making that up i appreciate the comment i don't know what i have of the report locate specifically a mini audit performance audit i don't know but something we should be able to see closely or management audit but a performance audit. >> i was thinking i totally agree an audit would work in terms of the immediate future what do we need to send a clear message and maybe what we do is what upcoming we meet with you know have a meeting with lamar with the certain amount of commissioners bring the board of supervisors president london i remember when london was on remote we talked about this and said we want to make sure that people are getting that poise because it is city resources that made this
report on those issues because as we've said that is one thing to see the goals are being met at the macro 11 but when i drill down it is liquor the difficulty it might look go and rosy but when you drilled it may not be pretty that's what i care about i appreciate the comments i hordes those comments for the past month that's why i keep bring it up to the commission so i'm glad that someone was not making that up i appreciate the comment i don't know what i have of the report locate...
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it could a defensive play when you look at the macro environment here.ar has been doing. what interest rates have been doing. what crude oil prices have been doing. but i think the fact that their earnings are a little bit more sturdy this season is allowing investors into more safety. i don't want to paint large caps as being safe havens. but relative to small caps. we think there's a perception that there right now. >> and particularly within the banking sector. you used the word growthy. where are the bank names? rattle off a few that you feel may be growthy. >> tough to pair those two together. the gentleman before me spoke about this. there's a high correlation between bank performance, financial sector performance and what the long end of the curve does here. if you think that rates are going to break north of 220, there's a good chance that the tnx breaks above -- we see good performance in the banking sector. huge bases. jpmorgan has a huge monthly base on it. yesterday was a good day for it. generally quiet. citigroup looks strong. moving toward
it could a defensive play when you look at the macro environment here.ar has been doing. what interest rates have been doing. what crude oil prices have been doing. but i think the fact that their earnings are a little bit more sturdy this season is allowing investors into more safety. i don't want to paint large caps as being safe havens. but relative to small caps. we think there's a perception that there right now. >> and particularly within the banking sector. you used the word...
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May 11, 2015
05/15
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BLOOMBERG
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and is on the macro level on the micro level, health care shares are up in oil is down.il prices are having a pullback on speculation that we will see glut for quite some time and more of a micro level, the oil stocks are taking a hit and that's the biggest drag on the s&p 500. and aenergy, murphy oil long list of the various oil producers are down sharply. noble is also making an acquisition by buying rosetta resources for $2 billion. that is also weighing on that stock. olivia: thank you so much. pimm: let's take a look at some of the top stories -- early today, a tornado struck a northeast texas and southeast arkansas and two people were killed and dozens injured there was widespread damage. earlier there were dramatic pictures from north texas were helicopters had to rescue people trapped by flashlights. storms have dumped up to seven inches of rain on the region. comcast is getting a new chief financial officer. the company says michael cavanaugh is leaving the carlyle group to assume the role. he will join the giant media company this summer and he s whoeds michael
and is on the macro level on the micro level, health care shares are up in oil is down.il prices are having a pullback on speculation that we will see glut for quite some time and more of a micro level, the oil stocks are taking a hit and that's the biggest drag on the s&p 500. and aenergy, murphy oil long list of the various oil producers are down sharply. noble is also making an acquisition by buying rosetta resources for $2 billion. that is also weighing on that stock. olivia: thank you...
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May 7, 2015
05/15
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they expanded for the first time in three years but many questioned whether macro economic factors are driving the move lower. some of the traders i speak to have been calling this reversal in the bond market brutal. maybe going long bonds has welcome a crowded trade but no one is expecting the size and the scale of this sell off. does it continue? >> it was an accident waiting to happen. bond yields have been exceptionally up. normally low for a very very long period of time. so a certain extent that was justified by low inflation rates but what's waking up the market right now is that a few months ago brent crude was trading in $45 barrel. right now it's approaching 70 again and bear in mind that as we enter the second half of the year the baseline effects in inflation are going to wash out. so i think there is a large reinflationary element in what's driving bond yields. >> the expectation has risen thanks to the rebound in oil prices but what about the elevated fears when it comes to this uncertain macro environment plus the greece jitters continue. wouldn't that send people into b
they expanded for the first time in three years but many questioned whether macro economic factors are driving the move lower. some of the traders i speak to have been calling this reversal in the bond market brutal. maybe going long bonds has welcome a crowded trade but no one is expecting the size and the scale of this sell off. does it continue? >> it was an accident waiting to happen. bond yields have been exceptionally up. normally low for a very very long period of time. so a...
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May 13, 2015
05/15
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BLOOMBERG
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macro view --n a we tell sales and flat. certain areas were disappointing.he department store sales can what is your take on how we are doing here? -- sales. what is your take on how we are doing? steven: in general, people are taking vacations, paying down debt -- there is nothing really besides maybe a new phone or that you really, really must have today. a red dress -- it is a red dress. a tie is a tie. people are not running out to make those new purchases if something is not telling them passion is changing. need to leaduct whatever money i have my wallet. steven: always. alix: do a stick around for the jcpenney turnaround plan. 20 minutes until jcpenney's comes out. coming up, and interesting $40 billion deal in the energy world. we'll tell you why williams is buying the 40% of williams partners they do not already own. instant topic. stay with us. ♪ alix: welcome back to the bloomberg market day. i am alix steel. time for the markets. 15 minutes before the closing bell. julie: if you look at big movers, a lot of it has to do with potential deals, done
macro view --n a we tell sales and flat. certain areas were disappointing.he department store sales can what is your take on how we are doing here? -- sales. what is your take on how we are doing? steven: in general, people are taking vacations, paying down debt -- there is nothing really besides maybe a new phone or that you really, really must have today. a red dress -- it is a red dress. a tie is a tie. people are not running out to make those new purchases if something is not telling them...
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look at it from a macro perspective as we do at alpine. you start from the macro.ement teams and valuations. we feel there are attractive opportunities globally. >> are these reits. i can go out and own a piece of some gigantic portfolio of i guess chinese real estate? >> china, no, not yet. china right now is going through the process of introducing reits. but therein lies the opportunity. perhaps getting in early on some of these companies that have the opportunity to reit their markets. and we look at companies like that all the time. india is another classic example of an emerging market that is providing an opportunity for reits as they become -- >> so i said location. what are you looking at? europe? do you like central america? south america maybe? i know a lot of americans are really looking to buy overseas now because of the dollar. >> yeah. dollar certainly plays a role in any real estate decisions. in our decisions, it's extremely relevant. but i think -- we look everywhere. we find opportunities in japan. the developed markets are interesting. just beca
look at it from a macro perspective as we do at alpine. you start from the macro.ement teams and valuations. we feel there are attractive opportunities globally. >> are these reits. i can go out and own a piece of some gigantic portfolio of i guess chinese real estate? >> china, no, not yet. china right now is going through the process of introducing reits. but therein lies the opportunity. perhaps getting in early on some of these companies that have the opportunity to reit their...
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May 7, 2015
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and he basically said it was crowded opinions and a crowded guess because of these macro headways andrends because of the central bank, and all of a sudden there is a little hick up and people are not sure and there is a lot of -- hiccup and people are not sure and there was a lot of hesitation. alix: athens is prepared to go "down to the wire." brussels losing patient -- brussels losing patience? cliff i get e-mails from you all the time in the terminal saying, enough already. cliff: greece should just default, they have a tube in dollar economy, -- have a $2 billion economy, but they just have to look at the reality of the situation and they don't have the debt payment capacity to pay this debt back. alix: you're looking at 40 billion euros of exposure, and what is the financial follow and is there some kind of default? carl: we have seen this in prior rounds of concerns of this, and there are countries on the periphery of greece and potential financial contagion. alix: unless we see massive move from central bank, will this inflate the greece economy? [laughter] carl: rather than p
and he basically said it was crowded opinions and a crowded guess because of these macro headways andrends because of the central bank, and all of a sudden there is a little hick up and people are not sure and there is a lot of -- hiccup and people are not sure and there was a lot of hesitation. alix: athens is prepared to go "down to the wire." brussels losing patient -- brussels losing patience? cliff i get e-mails from you all the time in the terminal saying, enough already. cliff:...
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May 17, 2015
05/15
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people will look at this from a macro perspective asking if this works. is broined the kind of thing that brings crime down? >> commissioner bratton tells you yes and told al jazeera it's a combination of factors. broken windows is a factor. but cited compstat, a method used to map crime. there's a number of other factors. they point to more police on the streets, fewer young people, the economic boom of the 1990s, and it's a rise in the rate of incarceration. that is a point that is debated. >> seems like the conversation can go two ways, how the police handles it, and the second is what the new york city council speaker says, why not decriminalize some of these things, make them like a parking ticket. what can you criminalize to stop people doing wrong things, but those that don't want a criminal record, running from these and getting into problems. >> there is a number of things, mino offenses that the city and they include like riding the bike on the side walk, drinking in public, being in the park after disturbing, urinating in public. there's seven
people will look at this from a macro perspective asking if this works. is broined the kind of thing that brings crime down? >> commissioner bratton tells you yes and told al jazeera it's a combination of factors. broken windows is a factor. but cited compstat, a method used to map crime. there's a number of other factors. they point to more police on the streets, fewer young people, the economic boom of the 1990s, and it's a rise in the rate of incarceration. that is a point that is...
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May 5, 2015
05/15
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mike: i think our ideas have to trump the macro.ctive of what's going on we have to bring ideas to market that -- alix: but people still want to buy it and have the money to buy it. mike: i will give you an example -- our writing business route 9% in first quarter and that is on top of 7.9% growth from a year ago. with the right ideas and right value propositions, we can grow and you have to believe you can grow irrespective of the macro context. people are willing to pay for good ideas. alix: when it's tough, people still buy pens. mike: they are buying pens, they are buying car seats. alix: coming up next will infidelity website ashley madison prosper with a london ipo? we will talk with the ceo right after the break. ♪ alix: welcome back. the dating website for unfaithful spouses is looking to look up with investors. ashley madison is pursuing an ipo and is looking to raise as much as $200 million. the company's ceo noel biderman joined now. what kind of response are you getting from investors? noel: what's interesting is we were
mike: i think our ideas have to trump the macro.ctive of what's going on we have to bring ideas to market that -- alix: but people still want to buy it and have the money to buy it. mike: i will give you an example -- our writing business route 9% in first quarter and that is on top of 7.9% growth from a year ago. with the right ideas and right value propositions, we can grow and you have to believe you can grow irrespective of the macro context. people are willing to pay for good ideas. alix:...
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May 19, 2015
05/15
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you have to recognize the macro environment is changed in the united states.oach while it has a lot of me reiterate won't provide what it has. setting expectations to range bound upside is important. in the united states. europe is attractive. china i don't see a risk. no hard landing worries. but you have to be reasonably discerning. >> alex thank you. >>> we got breaking news on computer sooins. >> shares are up 6% right now. compute science is up nearly 7% 48,000 shares of volume. the headline is computer sciences will split into two separate publicly trade companies, one that will focus on commercial and government clients the other one will focus on public sector clients in the united states. concurrent with the planned split they will pay a special dividend of $10.50 per share. splitting into two companies. paying a special $10.50 dividend. they reported financial results. earnings coming in at $1.26. estimates were $1.20. revenues a slight miss. the estimates there for $2.69 million. the shares in light trading are moving here as the company has confirm
you have to recognize the macro environment is changed in the united states.oach while it has a lot of me reiterate won't provide what it has. setting expectations to range bound upside is important. in the united states. europe is attractive. china i don't see a risk. no hard landing worries. but you have to be reasonably discerning. >> alex thank you. >>> we got breaking news on computer sooins. >> shares are up 6% right now. compute science is up nearly 7% 48,000 shares...
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May 5, 2015
05/15
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in fact, this was a macro-trade. what's happening is oil is squeezing higher despite the fact that inventory numbers get worse and worse. i would say the line in the sand is somewhere probably look at where we were before the opec meeting. the 200 day moving average, that may be where we are trying to get to. if you think about oil price, they tend to follow long-term averages. everybody looks at the future spurt. so you get back to long-term averages. i think 55 is your line in the sand. i followed brent but i think 75 is where we're going. right after the opec meeting, when things really fall down. >> that comment that it comes off here. people are questioning whether or not the strong dollars has peaked out. what do you think? >> we had the peak back in the end of january. i actually think the dollar could get stronger here t. dynamic you have going only here, you have inflation in the u.s. and basically where the fed wants it to be. inflationary expectations are rising as the price of oil rises. so what does that
in fact, this was a macro-trade. what's happening is oil is squeezing higher despite the fact that inventory numbers get worse and worse. i would say the line in the sand is somewhere probably look at where we were before the opec meeting. the 200 day moving average, that may be where we are trying to get to. if you think about oil price, they tend to follow long-term averages. everybody looks at the future spurt. so you get back to long-term averages. i think 55 is your line in the sand. i...
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May 18, 2015
05/15
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in those cases, when we are talking about that macro-level approach we work with treasury and state and evelyn l to disrupt that. as you mentioned -- state and everyone to disrupt that. i still is a bust of an organization. it gives us an opportunity to disrupt it in different ways whether it be coalition airstrikes. i think what we need to look at what they are talking about the financial aspect, it is a two-pronged approach. we need to disrupt it at the low level. but then we have to look at the macrolevel. with regards to your comment not just where talking about counterterrorism but all criminal activity, transnational organized crime as well, we need to continue to look at the aml and try to readjust the. -- readjust those. >> cap board, -- pat bourn europe representative in the united states. one of the goals of isis and isil is to set up the caliphate and i think less to fit -- last december, a german journalist was allowed access and gave some open-source reports of a was happening in their. he referred to a security system , a social welfare system, a school system, which of th
in those cases, when we are talking about that macro-level approach we work with treasury and state and evelyn l to disrupt that. as you mentioned -- state and everyone to disrupt that. i still is a bust of an organization. it gives us an opportunity to disrupt it in different ways whether it be coalition airstrikes. i think what we need to look at what they are talking about the financial aspect, it is a two-pronged approach. we need to disrupt it at the low level. but then we have to look at...
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May 1, 2015
05/15
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so you're really parsing at that point and when you parse that far down the macro question of whether they getting gifts to buy influence with the current administration were they getting gifts to curry favor with the next administration those macro questions dangle again and again and again and these micro skop pick answers don't get addressed and help solve those. >> one of the things we learned in that boston globe story was the guy in charge there was getting paid $400,000 a year to run this charity. if you're getting paid that much money i think you should be doing a better job of monitoring all these -- >> i want to pick up exactly on that because charity navigator which is one of the most respected charity watchdog groups that sits there and rates is a charity legit or are they spending questionable money says that they cannot rate the clinton foundation because of its, quote, atypical business plan -- business model. and one of the questions they raise is that so much money is being spent on administration and not on direct services ab. >> right. i mean earlier today on the br
so you're really parsing at that point and when you parse that far down the macro question of whether they getting gifts to buy influence with the current administration were they getting gifts to curry favor with the next administration those macro questions dangle again and again and again and these micro skop pick answers don't get addressed and help solve those. >> one of the things we learned in that boston globe story was the guy in charge there was getting paid $400,000 a year to...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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May 7, 2015
05/15
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. >> we have the police budget that woman was macro 80 grand a big expense foreperson for the city and county of san francisco please he makes 325 imi'm glad it worked out for her i'm total glad that worked out out for her a recent there's a if i people sitting her once she came before. >> clyde i have to remind you address the whole board. >> you may want to get our information correct. >> we're not going to go back and forth thanks clyde. >> i'm first wanting to say thank you, mayor ed lee for finally doing the dash cantonese and i'll speak to you about the quotation she gave and get it done as quickly as possible amen i knew i liked her and the other commissioner over there and there's a few of you appointed by the mayor i'm trying to be positive so i'll be positive when i'm done i have a chart of 5 items and i came here for four and a half years the time to get the dash cantonese the timeline is good the history is horrible and visibly nothing is done on the other 4 please look at the list and upgrade the performance and i've give you four articles the dash cantonese you have a a l
. >> we have the police budget that woman was macro 80 grand a big expense foreperson for the city and county of san francisco please he makes 325 imi'm glad it worked out for her i'm total glad that worked out out for her a recent there's a if i people sitting her once she came before. >> clyde i have to remind you address the whole board. >> you may want to get our information correct. >> we're not going to go back and forth thanks clyde. >> i'm first wanting to...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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May 31, 2015
05/15
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SFGTV
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health theory that we use quite often and what we are trying to do is change both the micro level and macro level all at the same time. most people when they think of education campaigns they think of the bottom three rows that we're teaching individual behavior and doing media campaigns that reach communities, but it's really the full spectrum that you see here. where we want to be fostering coalitions and changing organizational practices and influencing policy such as the previous item on the agenda and helping to provide education towards that first effort. so the perfect example is the training that mta just recently rolled out that is targeting drivers, but an organizational change at mta, reach all of those drivers who drive these huge trucks on our city streets. so this is an example of how we are addressing multiple-levels all at the same time. and so all of the agencies that have developed this strategy, we have committed to a certain set of criteria. it's an effort that we are putting forward as vision zero educational effort, that they will be meeting these criteria that we have
health theory that we use quite often and what we are trying to do is change both the micro level and macro level all at the same time. most people when they think of education campaigns they think of the bottom three rows that we're teaching individual behavior and doing media campaigns that reach communities, but it's really the full spectrum that you see here. where we want to be fostering coalitions and changing organizational practices and influencing policy such as the previous item on...
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May 9, 2015
05/15
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>> it is. >> okay. >> that inside the macro-aggressions. it was a moment of owning that i in the final -- because i wanted the end to do a different thing. and so in that sense i thought in this moment i'm going to own the i in terms of my own -- you know, toni morrison talks a lot about not being interested in the white gaze and many of her books, in fact have very few white people in there. but, you know, i -- as much as i, i'm a lover of tony morrison -- tony morrison there's no way that this work is possible without morrison's work and also her critical work "playing in the dark." i think that it's a false construction to act as if i am not interacting with white bodies all the time including my husband's. so, you know, that would be problematic. [laughter] so i -- but one can own the i and one does own the i relative to one's self. so i did want to do a kind of corrective around that. >> that's fascinating, and i read that -- i read an interview with lauren berlance and with her work on trauma a, and while i think the subject of the bo
>> it is. >> okay. >> that inside the macro-aggressions. it was a moment of owning that i in the final -- because i wanted the end to do a different thing. and so in that sense i thought in this moment i'm going to own the i in terms of my own -- you know, toni morrison talks a lot about not being interested in the white gaze and many of her books, in fact have very few white people in there. but, you know, i -- as much as i, i'm a lover of tony morrison -- tony morrison...
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May 27, 2015
05/15
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the other thing that's utterly fascinating about the world cup and the macro economics of it all -- inc. of the last several world cup series. awarded toe were these countries at a time when people were super bearish on the u.s.'s place in the world. it was all about these energy nations on the rise and now that these games are actually happening and the global narrative has totally changed so that the u.s. is clearly the world's strongest economy, all of these economies are in trouble, the energy economies are not so great -- i feel like global international games are a lagging indicator of where the mood is. alix: i was looking at that and i was looking at qatar -- their fiscal breakeven is around $60 a barrel. your point of the rise and fall of these guys. qataroday, the market in had its worst drop in three months. the official word from fifa is nothing's going to change about where the games are played, but any hints there could be a problem with the games is a huge issue because they spend an to buildount of money their facilities. even the slightest hint that those games could be
the other thing that's utterly fascinating about the world cup and the macro economics of it all -- inc. of the last several world cup series. awarded toe were these countries at a time when people were super bearish on the u.s.'s place in the world. it was all about these energy nations on the rise and now that these games are actually happening and the global narrative has totally changed so that the u.s. is clearly the world's strongest economy, all of these economies are in trouble, the...
SFGTV: San Francisco Government Television
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May 7, 2015
05/15
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prepared by roll call train a bio monthly class two day class for officers by demise first degree macro them you understand there is what will happen it is not a good or bad it is just this is what is going to do happen and try to minimize that cloud thank you, sergeant please call line item 3 b arrest the occ director's report and discussion of recent activity. >> direct examination and chief suhr and members of the public last week the attended mayor ed lee press conference on the fund of pedestrian safety initiative to provide beams for the police department and additional academy plaza classes will also grant occ additional positions if approved by points board of supervisors for the 2015-2016 budget the occ will have 0.255 position one journey investigator and one attorney and one information technology technician assistant a 2 position to increase an attorney port commission to full fully funded position i appreciate the mayors approving the occs request as well as the budget director kate howard for understanding the occs staffing challenge i'd like to thank commissioner presiden
prepared by roll call train a bio monthly class two day class for officers by demise first degree macro them you understand there is what will happen it is not a good or bad it is just this is what is going to do happen and try to minimize that cloud thank you, sergeant please call line item 3 b arrest the occ director's report and discussion of recent activity. >> direct examination and chief suhr and members of the public last week the attended mayor ed lee press conference on the fund...
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May 1, 2015
05/15
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as you look at the macro markets and some of the leadership groups that have reversed here, we're inime that says look, does it look like somebody is trapped in the trades or an ugly valuation? no. the remains steady. all the kind of indicators of a rupture in the system are not there. we lack a leadership group that's going to take us anywhere with any momentum. >> we mentioned this. one more time quickly. speaking of ruptures, what's taken place, doc, in biotech. you have the bounce-back. the ivb sup 3%. there are those who say what's happening now is par for the course. what's happen over the last year. plus there's a little rattle that goes on. and then the stocks go right back up. i will throw this out, something that i saw today, that larger-cap biotech p.e.s have now fallen below the market p.e. for just the second time in ten years, that raises the question of whether there's technical damage that's been done. and you're going to see going into the down side. >> i'll be surprised if we do see a lot more down side there, judge. part of the reason that there's a premium on thes
as you look at the macro markets and some of the leadership groups that have reversed here, we're inime that says look, does it look like somebody is trapped in the trades or an ugly valuation? no. the remains steady. all the kind of indicators of a rupture in the system are not there. we lack a leadership group that's going to take us anywhere with any momentum. >> we mentioned this. one more time quickly. speaking of ruptures, what's taken place, doc, in biotech. you have the...