we are focused on and for such an macro.e are sort of a macro shot so we are better positioned to enter the question. we really do believe that particularly because of immigration shifts happening in the country and because of overdue investment, we are in a critical juncture. we want to be competitive in an exciting new area to define the future, software, robotics, artificial intelligence. when need to invest a lot in our digital infrastructure and training of people, especially if we are going to see reduction in international students and reduction in international visas to top engineers and folks in the space. where our people taking advantage of what you do specifically? >> what a lot of people are doing nowadays is starting to make investment based on factors. a rise of new technologies or they want to be careful to have broad exposure. people come to us because what they really want to do is make sure they have a global macro like closure, where many different markets in the world and different bonds and different al

they want to follow these macro brexitlike frexit and -- and trump's election.not much volatility to hedge against these days. i want to bring this chart up. this is #6786. we will show this complete lack of volatility. calms ande these complacency across most asset classes. what kind of transaction volumes have you been seeing during this quiet. ? period? >> we have seen a slight dip. there is always something going on. that is the thing about having six different asset classes. crude is see more volatility. we are seeing more asian investors being involved in the story of the u.s.. with this rate most, there is a lot of people moving their portfolios around, trying to think about whether this will be a rate hike. i won't like, we would like to see a bit more volatility. up, down, exchanges like ourselves are built for that for our investors. haidi: china has been the drive of the story when it comes to commodities market. setting, howrice much of these domestic chinese exchanges will be setting up to be a competitor or threat? >> i think when china goes to ini

— macro voters about, border control.r moment, suggesting immigration will go up as well as go down. i think people will feel betrayed... if bauer comes to pass. we don't know, we have two years of this. remember that guy bashing his head across the country, i wasn't far off. that is a hard brexit. lucy, ayesha, thanks for looking at the stories behind this single headline, which is of course, we are out and that letter will be going to donald tusk tomorrow from theresa may. you can see the front pages of all of them online and if you missed the programme you can watch it later on the bbc iplayer. relive all the m . on the bbc iplayer. relive all the magic! thank you to my guests and for you watching. goodbye. mixed fortunes for some others and it will feel like early summer for some others. might even be 2! in parts of the south east over the next couple of days. but for others, a lot of rain around and that will knock temperatures on the head. tonight, a lot of cloud and patchy rain around. rain is not too heavy oi’ rai

we used to worry a lot about macro news in the past several years but since then we are worrying morepecific news and the dispersion across the stock has led to a news and the dispersion across the stock - has led to a much stock market has led to a much healthier risk environment which has meant we can withstand more macro bad news than we had recently. what about the european central bank eventually raising the cost of borrowing, following in the footsteps of the us? will it happen? europe is going to be a hotbed of the next 12 months, the brexit negotiations going on in the background, elections coming in france, and we just had some good news out of holland, so europe is going to be... the risk premium in europe will continue to remain high in the next 12 months because of these things. i don't think talking about raising interest rates right now is the best thing. but of course, despite all this talk of protectionist policies from president trump, we have seen the us market is continuing to rise. but raising the cost of borrowing has kept asian stock markets on the sidelines. som

but i think if you are a macro trader, this is your first macro event that you get to trade around. and i think that's where, when you look at the marketplace, the real consequences are going to be on this vote. the market itself, yesterday technology, i was incredibly surprised at how well technology held up yesterday. >> financials held up again, as well. >> financials today are coming back again. so when you go bottoms up and look at the marketplace, you could find opportunities, top-down macro trader, you get skpited about an event like this, the first one of 2017 which has real meaning. >> i think you will have the market sell off if this assistadoesn't go through. today is an arbitrary day. tomorrow, saturday. if you think about it, we're a couple percentage points off the high, and the market -- while there's been a lot of rotation under the surface, i think a lot of guys are using this as a barometer to whether or not trump would get tax reform passed. if you look at the trades that have done well since the election, we have had a pretty big reversal in those trump trades. s

here in singapore they are about to switch off the macro 16 will.ick from m1. why are singapore‘s telcos switching off the 26 are singapore‘s telcos switching off the 2g signal? —— off the 2g signal. today‘s customers are all internet savvy and they utilise data, 4g is specifically designed for the efficient carriage of data and hence the time has come for us to retire the time has come for us to retire the 26 the time has come for us to retire the 2g network gracefully and reuse the 2g network gracefully and reuse the bandwidth and spectrum for 2g for 4g. if you are a 4g customer sitting in a house, maybe on facebook or playing a game, are you likely to see an improvement in service? because it is a low band frequency, the penetration indoors is better. so, yes, some of the customers, especially if you‘re deep inside a building, you will have a better customer experience. what kind of preparation have you made to switch over people such as perhaps migrant workers or older people on zg migrant workers or older people on 2g prepaid plans or corporate

tony: the macro guys are look at the backdrop. individuals guys look at an individual company go for it. you have got to get in the index. the fees are what kill most people. the people who do get in the market. they don't understand the difference between 1% or 2% or 3 per there are fees makes the difference between financial abundance. they are all cutting their fees because they judge performed the last -- they underperformed the last years. you never know what the timing is. research done by jpmorgan, a 20-year study found if you are out of the market for 10 tradey days in 20 years, instead of s & p's doubling every nine years. if you lose just one day a year, you drop to 2%. 1.5 days out of 20 years you make nothing. maria: if the market is up since election day, don't be afraid of it. tony: you will probably see a correction, but it won't hurt you if you don't sell. there is $100 billion. he was going to take a billion dollars a week for 16 straight weeks. he said these valuations are the greatest thing in the world. but the

dash—macro dwindling.gue they were fighting terrorism and so we re they were fighting terrorism and so were you , they were fighting terrorism and so were you, but actually is not quite true because russia will not targeting isis, they were purely backing assad, who has killed far more people than isis. but also, this does undermine support for the iraqi government, and for the western approach. that is a significant factor, and this is not the first. there have been other incidents, not as bad as this one, but that is a problem, when people are fleeing their homes, we have two remake this country at the end of this process, whatever happens. remake this country at the end of this process, whatever happensm is significant politically and on a humanitarian level as well. absolutely. let's go on to the other main story on the front page of the observer, the story that has dominated the news this week, the westminster keller acting alone in less than 1.5 minutes. yes, 82 seconds they have broken it down into.

it is not a blind move, and the reason has to do with macro medical. the politics in europe, especially over the next few months, will be challenging. we have a potential eurosceptic becoming the leader of the netherlands. the french elections in particular are troubling. if marine le pen wins, given her euro skepticism and desire to redenominate from the euro into the french franc come a that could be destabilizing from a european perspective, a front perspective, as well as a global perspective. butcannot go in blindly, having said that, there's a lot of good news in europe that i do not think is being reflected in the markets. vonnie: i want to go back to the u.s. markets. in europe, there's a lot of uncertainty, in the u.s. there's a lot of uncertainty, but at least we know who is in power. we know what kinds of clinical fights we will be facing. you could say there are animal spirits in the market, but we are looking at a fed rate hike this month. shouldn't u.s. stocks continue to grind higher and amid moreks continue uncertainty? george: what i w

that said supported by strong macro economic data and the potential for more business friendly policies. i would be neither. unless and until the dust settles. if a week or two from now we were 5%, 10% down on the broad indices. we continue to see he opportunities throughout in names are strong balance sheets, strong profitability and cash flows. where we've been waiting for an opportunity to add to positions we know we like and we can get a better valuation entry point. >> disthe fed and two more interest rate likes factor into it at all? >> it makes me a bit more cautious on names that carry higher leverage. they're going to have to refinance it at a higher interest rate down the road. but more broadly. that's the only way it factors in. i'm a bit more cautious. the valuations use it as an input. beyond those examples. >> thank you very much for your thoughts. >> mike's cothe world's largest foot wear maker earned 60 cents a share. passing expectations. revenue of nearly 8.5 billion was up from a year ago but analysts wanted a little bit more. well that, shares fell initial will you i

the macro data is strong enough. we weren't surprised.da, i want to bring up this chart on the bloomberg. volatility or lack thereof, where to find opportunities in the market is something we talked about a lot. there's a theory about why we see volatility drop across all assets. what is your theory as to why we are seeing a world of very high risk and low volatility? where do investors go in this sort of environment? reporter: that's exactly right. this is an anomaly we are seeing. when you look at it from a cross-sectional budget three perspectives, across advocates, or implied volatility. very low volatility. what i think it means is there's potentially complacency and markets. is a lot of risk -- there's a lot of risk, particularly around the investments -- elections in europe and this part of the world. i expect we are going to see higher volatility for the rest of the year. haidi: we are just getting the yuan reference that has been set a bit weaker today, 6.901 against the u.s. dollar. we haven't seen a lot of volatility when it co

ciara but was replaced by macro that came from congress with bipartisan support signed by the president. that's how medicare is supposed to work but as summarized very nicely from its ipab comes into play, then the elected representatives no longer have control over how medicare is supposed to work and there will be 15 people with very little accountability and without any day jobs and many of them never even touch the patient are making decisions about how health-care spending is going to be run. and what is even worse as she mentioned if the board is not appointed us onappoint it is ru, secretary of hhs. so you have one member in the executive branch would be performing a job that historically has been part of the legislative branch. i mentioned macro earlier and as you well know for the first time, it is forcing everyone into a quality value-based payment world and if we do that right, not only would drive down medicare costs but more importantly it can improve the quality of care our senior citizens get. the problem is then instead of f the fossil targeted type of approach, again ba

there may be a macro shock that may drive things down. there may be a perfect storm in the future of less cash flowing. and returns being compressed by the macro environment. that will lead to potentially tougher fundraising environments down the road. jason: you mentioned the challenging dealmaking environment as well, valuations are extremely high. we have had a huge run of the int run up -- huge run up the u.s. stock market. what is the outlook? hugh: dealmaking is tough because prices are high. we have dry powder in the industry. well over $1 trillion. we have a tremendous amount of , which isital institutional money. that is also there and that adds 20% to the dry powder that is already in the marketplace. so the amount of equity chasing deals is huge. the number of companies to buy is not growing at that rate. the amount of cheap debt is quite plentiful. prices are going to remain high in the future. that makes it tough to get the returns. jason: one of the areas you pointed out in your report was technology, and a huge amount of mo

they signaled essentially that they are fairly happy with the macro picture.re are some risks and this year will be a question of moving the markets toward unwinding their qe program. matt: unwinding the qe program is going to be interesting. then winding down the balance sheet will be something to do over the long slog. if they follow in the fed's footsteps, i guess, but will they raise rates first? bilal: that is an interesting question. so far, listening to ecb speakers over the last three or four months, they've indicated they will do tapering first, then raise rates. from the perspective of what they've been saying, it seems like they follow the fed playbook. however there could be a case to raise rates as far as we have seen in the euro area, financial institutions have been hit by negative rates. there could be a case on that front. our base case is they will taper first, then raise rates. guy: interesting how the policy versus politics story is breaking out. nicola sturgeon is going to make an important speech come a we understand, ahead of article 50

wejust heard seems to me, between these two macro figures.heresa may in the commons delivering sharp rebukes to nicola sturgeon, again arguing her not to play politics. saying now was the time to unite the country, not drive it further apart. insisting that she had listened to nicola sturgeon‘s concerns, stressing the common areas of agreement like security —— over areas like security and terrorism. i think that theresa may is determined to play this long, while at the same time pushing back hard personally against nicola sturgeon. norman smith, thank you. let's go to glen campbell in edinburgh. what is the appetite about like for a second referendum? there's not been an overwhelming clamourfor a second there's not been an overwhelming clamour for a second vote on independence. but obviously those who are on the yes i do look forward to that prospect. those on the no side by and large are reluctant to go down that route again. but nicola sturgeon has said that unless theresa may makes her some kind of last—minute offer to try and accommodate

macro managers are finding no joy in the first two months of the truck rally -- trump rally.ge fund managers say concerning driven higher by policy proposals than by actual reforms on issues such as trade and taxes. denieserpillar strongly breaking any federal tax laws one week after its headquarters and other facilities were raided by federal agencies. the reasons behind the rate remain unclear, but caterpillar informed the sec it has been notified by the irs it owed $2 billion in additional taxes because of profits from the swiss unit. no charges have been filed. caterpillar says it is cooperating with investigators. and that is your bloomberg h, and we want to bring you a check of the markets -- iglobal macro movers said a to g 10, but for fun, let's set it to g 20. in japan, the nikkei is off. most of the indices, including the ftse 100 in the u.k., up .4%. closing in on 107. the south african rand stronger. when it comes to yields, germany's five-year was up almost eight basis points. the 10-year yield in the u.s. touched 260. still ahead, the first 100 days of the trump

and that is our macro vision for the project. but we also realize there's a demand now. >> that's right. >> if we don't step forward now, a lot of people will suffer. >> i think what's inspiring for me and what i'd like our viewers to hear is that here religious institutions are not just concerned about themselves and their own survival. they're really looking to serve their neighbors, to serve the greater good of san francisco and to provide housing for workers who are either having to leave the city because rents are too high, or have to relocate just simply elsewhere. >> you bring up a very important and central core element of our work, because we really believe that congregations and religious institutions have a moral obligation to respond. and there's a human rights issue at stake here. and we really believe that housing is a human right in san francisco. i've been heartened to see really the sincerity and consensus among faith leaders in providing that housing, because of that moral obligation and because of the theologic

the past has been macro risks, trading risks, and misconduct risks. and the big one added this year, obviously, brexit. the bre wants to know how banks can show that their consumers won't lose access, and how the continental customers will be protected. that's just one of the things that the boe wants to know. >> and the major uk banks, 15.1% of risk-related assets in 2016, the requirement, 13.5%. that's also something, rightly or wrongly, you know, the focus on capitalizations. i remember when it was 5%, 7%. and now we're talking 15.1% in the case of the uk banks. so they're well capitalized. >> that's improved quite a bit. >> yeah. >>> also i want to take a look at the ftc report. the overall level of 9 risk to the uk financial stability is broadly unchanged since the 23406 meeting. that was wildly expected. to handle a range of outcome from the brexit talks. and reduced to quit quality lending very soon. it will have two scenarios one short-term, one long-term. both of these a little muddled. but i guess the crux of the matter, how well can you adv

washington macro. >> i think it is interesting. i totally heard the exact same language from ryan when he came out and made the point that it will be difficult. this makes it a lot more difficult. a couple days ago evgs talking about how it would be, not easy but we're confident we'll get health care passage. here's the issue. cuts versus reform. the market is pricing in reform. not full but we're not assuming it will be cuts. so therefore, i think there's a lot of risk to this. down side, i think we're little protected. people are waiting. they're going to give them a little pass on this. maybe a month or two. once they see cracks, they'll sell this market more aggressive. i think the upside is cracked as well. >> a very serious show. a lot of serious issues. i have a little game here. >> let's play. >> if president trump were a stock, does value go up or down and would you buy? >> oh, wow. >> i'll start off. the beauty of this, i always change around your games to my games. the beauty of this is that we don't have a dictator. so

the uncertainty bleeds into the macro. etv10.k at the g # we see not so long ago, it hit high, near the high when the u.s. credit rating was downgraded. yet, we have the vix at the all-time low. many analyst talking about this divergence and does it mean the real world will tell what will happen for stocks. or, will be just see the uncertainties around the real world perhaps cool off. time will tell. quickly getting to tech and why tech is the top sector, we have the stock index, the philadelphia; to index -- semi 1.5%.tor index up thoses really helping shares. tech might have been off yesterday, but earlier this week it looks higher, and once again, higher. technology, the top sector of the year. mark: a week ago we were at the height in 15 month, the highest level since 2016. down 1/5 of 1% today. technology, best-performing group today. we are down for the week. we have been up, down, up, down for the past six weeks. that has been the topsy-turvy nature of this marketplace. stocks to watch, this is germany , don't confu

southgate has been hamstrung by injuries in choosing this 2000 truss—macro 26 man squad.ter united teenager and at the other end i the age spectrum, jermaine defoe, at the age spectrum, jermaine defoe, at the age of 3a, over three years after lasting burlingame, 30 years his lasting burlingame, 30 years since his first england match, well, could add to his 19 international could add to his 19internatienak= goals. his goal-scoring record is phenomenal, but the particularly this season, in a team that parts on creating as many chances as other teens, his strike rate is outstanding. i did not want tojust look at his age and think he is finished with england. defoe back in the squad. southgate also said andy carroll. theo walcott had not carroll and theo walcott had not done quite enough to squeeze their way into this squad. name jumped out, that of luke shaw, manchester autahalef—hakeéhaw-maneheeter def; iie hardly united's defender who has hardly played at sled at = united's defender who has hardly played at plaid at all at club played at played at all at club level this se

see are farfrom rule of law and the macro see are far from those values.es. what they did is a scandal. riot police and water cannon were used in rotterdam to disperse hundreds of demonstrators on saturday. the protest turned violent after the turkish family minister was expelled from the country by dutch authorities. g was in the city trying to raise support amongst expat voters ahead of a referendum on expanding turkish presidential powers —— she was. translation: in holland, holland as a country that speaks of freedom and democracy, we were faced with very rough and hard treatment. it's very ugly europeans who talk about women's rights and talk about how we should treat women in turkey. the dutch government said referendum rallies would stop tensions just days before the general there. and the dutch prime minister wants an apology —— spoke. the dutch prime minister wants an apology -- spoke. some turkish politicians are talking about nazis and fascism. this country, as the mayor pointed out yesterday, was bombed during the second world war by the nazis.

renaissance macro research. kim, good to see you. >> hi. >> what's your take on what's going on so far today? >> there's a lot going on. i think going forward we have to focus on the substance and the politics of legislation. it's easy to say you move to tax reform and pass it by june. what's difficult is identifying what the ideas are, put them on paper. get support for it in committee and then pass it to the floor. the focus on the house thus far has been on border adjustment taxation. that's not had life in the senate for the past three months. if you're going to get to tax reform in a hurry, you're going to have to pay for the from what's been the focus of the house, come up with another plan and then bring people in to support it. they're not close to that yet. >> you think basically if tax reform is going to have a shot, border adjustment has to go away? >> that's not what i think, that's what 17 republican senators have said. >> okay. >> you can only lose two of them. by their definition border adjustment

macro remains the front runner. what to derail his base?ndal sovoided a far but this is an election were revelations keep coming. for the moment, he is safe. i think in his case, it is more from thehis support is traditional parties. i think for him, the debate is going to be very crucial. a lot of people will be the first time. will he be -- come across as an aspiring dynamic 39-year-old for out of depth, inexperienced 39-year-old unable to take on the task of presidency. i think it will be very crucial for him. we have until april 23 for the first round. i -- willrn out to be turn out behind? -- will turn out be high? >> the first round it usually is. becausearly, this year they have really been in the news this election. the question is how many people show up to vote. , a biger what happens chunk will be left out. it looks like the socialist will not be the second round and it could be the republican philosophy is a second round either so you will have two of the major parties that don't .ven make the second round to they just stay home

in a macro she is at home. —— to call 99. isaid macro she is at home. —— to call 99. of four—year—old philosophy. i think their parents have got the hands for! time for the weather forecast with thomas. —— tomasz. the skies will be clearing overnight, certainly some frost around first thing. here is the big high pressure which is going to stick around during the weekend. in the centre of the harder it is windless, starry, starry skies. there are probably some missed in some sports as well, for example the vale of york, and there will be a frost. could be minus four degrees in some areas, but for most of us saturday dawns with a lot of sunshine, a little bit hazy in some areas, and then we are in for a cracking day. still a bit of a breeze around the south—east, but some inland areas on saturday could warm up to around 16 celsius and sunday, fairly similar, western areas the best of the sunshine. further east, variable amounts of cloud but not bad. this is bbc world news america, reporting from washington. high drama on the hill, republicans pull the vote on their heal

families gathered outside the gates of the macro to shelter, a care home in guatemala, after teenagewe re guatemala, after teenage girls that were killed in a fire that razed through the building. —— of the virgen de asuncion shelter. translation: they haven't given us explanation and they will not let us go in. police were called to a right here last night. the bay started after somebody set fire to a mattress in one of the dormitories. although this is a children's home, it is thought that it was doubling up it is thought that it was doubling up as it is thought that it was doubling upasa it is thought that it was doubling up as a juvenile detention centre. it has caused shock and guatemala, and three days of national mourning have been declared. translation: we treasure life. we are the ones most interested in guaranteeing the light of adolescence. unfortunately, today, at about 9am, a tragic accident occurred that we very much lament. as well as those killed, the police department said tens of people were killed, some in a series condition. —— tens of people were injured, some in

andy murray reaches the quarterfinals in dubai—macro after another straight sets win.line—up for the quarterfinals is complete. they huddersfield face manchester city eddie etihad. the championship side taking the lead, but city were too strong, with five goals in reply. it would not be the fa cup without those tinfoil trophies and dreams of an upset. amongst huddersfield town's 8000 travelling fans, plenty of both. for a few minutes, at least, the optimism felt well founded. harry bunn, huddersfield have the lead. at least sometimes in this tournament, there is no room for sentiment. leroy sane scoring for city, determined to end the upset. sergio aguero broke down in the box. a moment to show how ruthless they can be. this is a very different sides to the one held a fortnight ago. then they could not score. here they had three before the break. pablo za baleta had three before the break. pablo zabaleta this time, the premier league quality starting to tell. behind, but still the chance, occasional and after deep huddersfield hoping. keeping those fa ns huddersfield h

let's bring in the head of macro strategy at green capital., are you is cheered by these numbers as the markets were? >> no, i am more cautious after the events of last week. i do not think we will get enough information from d.c. quickly. we look at financials and value stocks, they came back to levels last seen in december. a second chance to participate in the trump rally. betty: are we stuck in this rally -- range? peter: i think we are. there is hope down the road is something good comes from d.c. betty: i want to talk about the dollar. a lot of this has been fueling the dollar or taking the steam out of this rally. i want to pull up this chart that shows, even with all the volatility here, the net bullish dollar that has stayed pretty high. at least throughout the last 12 months. we are not quite at the levels they were earlier this year, but relatively high. you do not think there is a reason they should be? peter: no, i think people should be pulling back from dollar bets. partly as tax works out, i do not think we will see the b.a.t.

macro ramÓn: menos de las nuevas medidas en polÍtica de migraciÓn, ponen el ojo de la tormenta a losÓmo evitar lÍos con la justicia. luis zaragoza: el miedo al ser reportado es tal que algunos de ellos, tienen miedo, hasta de salir a la calle. el pÁnico generado por la administraciÓn del presidente donal trump y su mensaje, muchos temen ser separados de sus familias y des las pertenencias que han adquirido en estos aÑos. >> todo lo que uno no apagado y se ha esforzado. reportero: lo mejorm dicen algunos activistas, es seguir al pie de la letra las leyes que rige, como no manejar sin permiso de conducir. >>una persona que tenga cualquier tipo de delito, sea serio o no serio, sin licencia, esa persona debe ser deportada. reportero: su situaciÓn legal es cuestionable, piÉnselo veces antes de ponerse tras el volante. >> manejar, bajo influencias del alcohol, los estÁn deportando en estados unidos. reportero: otra obligaciÓn es la declaraciÓn de impuestos, rendirle cuenta a su compromiso y si no cuenta con un nÚmero de seguro social, puede hacerlo con un nÚmero. >> una persona que estÁ si

as he says in the note, he's not a macro analyst, he's just point out these macro issues which say theythe stocks. he's not calling for it, he's still positive on it but i think he's right and it's refreshing to see an analyst in the sector who typically has tunnel vision and just looking at it and weighing his recommendations against other stocks to have that macro perspective. so i think it's a note that's worthy of reading and it's food for thought. by the way, if brexit -- we don't know how it turns out. >> but these thoughts are always there, though. >> they're always there but more acute right now because of the timing. >> yes and no. they just put forth a letter to initiate brexit. congress hasn't given any indication that it does have an ability to govern, given what happened in health care and all the other stuff that's still on the plate. we don't know what the trade policy is going to be or really what the state of the economy truly is going forward. >> it's from a guy there who didn't come on the boat late that's looking at it from a perspective he's made these huge gains in

dash—macro 160. growing, and she became one had £60 in weight. dash-macro 160. nt. i help you? for me, she was a constant. i have to fund the ages of 19-25. it constant. i have to fund the ages of 19—25. it was the last summer my pa rents would 19—25. it was the last summer my parents would live together, they got a divorce shortly after gizelle came into my life. my mother was struggling with addiction and there we re struggling with addiction and there were a lot of ups and downs with that, but a dog is always there when you get home, she was my best friend, very loyal. these pictures area sink friend, very loyal. these pictures are a sink from all the lovely things you did together on the bucket list. tell us about your bucket list. tell us about your bucket list. tell us about your bucket list. i think a dog bucket list is quite simple. dogs are a reminder to enjoy the little things in life, so we did quite simple things. we went to the beach, that was one of my favourite things. i a lwa ys was one of my favourite things. i always said i wanted to take her t

john and i have been a little bit on the circuit on this, because he tells you the macro evidence and my role is to tell you a little bit of the micro evidence, the firm level data. you could say i'm going to try to persuade you, i don't think i persuaded john yet to switch that probably not to maybe yes. in terms of dynamism. so what i'm particularly interested in, we have seen some dramatic changes in the pace of indicators of business dynamism. i'll explain those in just a second. these are prima fascia cases so we want to dig into this, including the skepticism about timing and how big the effects are on and so on. i should note this particular talk comes with work of lots of colleagues, but blame all me for the remarks here. so what do i mean by indicators of decline to business dynamism? so we now have in the united states, thanks to work both at the bls and census, great data sets that track every firm and establishment in the united states longitudinally and the two charts take advantage of that. the upper left is from bls, business employment dynamics, tracking the job alloca

the macro is look at the global economy, the u.s. recovery, we have all of potential boost coming from the trump jump in terms of tax cuts and in terms of infrastructure spending we have a fairly flat europe where rates remain low, we have a china that will muddle through. we select massive deflation in japan. the big story is u.s. growth. in reality, it is going to be how much can the u.s. grown if with a protectionist u.s., we end up seeing global trade continuing to contract. that me and the effects of u.s. -- means the effects of u.s. growth do not spread. lower interest rates for longer and some of the heat coming out of stock markets -- there is too much money chasing, too few assets. ina: not much volatility it -- volatility in's box. -- in stocks. amongst that backdrop you paint there, we cover this week's developments, there has been a palpable sigh of relief. bill: and a bad sigh of relief. we've got away from the big macro picture and looking at micro sizes. vote,day's float -- everyone is going phew, populism hasn't destr

do you have a macro view on retail? that the consumer will get pinched off in a number of ways? great call. most of them are down. >> since beginning of last year. high-level forces, are you entering now more of an inflationary environment? this area has done exceptionally well as inflations pick up, there's obvious pressure point margins. plus these are very leveled models. interest rates move higher. you see more and more wage pressure kick in. the secular trend remains -- >> you don't like it? bottom line, retail -- >> relative. >> more on the trump trade as we go value hunt iing. waiting on washington as well. the dow is up 12 points. everything is in a holding pattern. we're going to find you some value opportunities. stick around. advisor and team who understand where you come from know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values ♪ know that together, you can establish a meaningful legacy with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management® team. i am benedict arnold, the infamous t

we macro you say potential rules to mind the banks. we are relying on interest rates. let's watch their leverage, their cap rates. are you at all concerned a dodd-frank a level could jeopardize -- overhaul to jeopardize those tools? eric: i think dodd-frank has some pluses and minuses. some of the pluses are substantial. our banks are better capitalized than most banks around the world. is one reason why a much is concerned about the economic downturn would be sometime in the future. i think we are better prepared to be were going into the financial races. that is probably dodd-frank and probably various regulations they came in place to implement dodd-frank. on the liquidity side, of a survey prepared making sure they have sufficient liquidity if there is a big shock. i think there are aspects of dodd-frank that been very beneficial. people have highlighted the concerns about the regulatory burden. i think we should take a look at all the regulations. i would not want to see the capital regulation change in a way that caused our banks not to be among the most well-cap

joining us is kim wallace from renaissance macro research. treasury secretary is at a g-20 meeting and america is espousing an america first policy? .im: not much at this stage i think it is important that the secretary is with his colleagues. communication is terribly important, not in times of nonstress but in times of conflict. of course there will be difficult discussions among the deputies, that is their job. the communications over the weekend will likely leave room for doubt that g-20 is still 20 and not 19. vonnie: as you mentioned, to a certain extent mnuchin is a figurehead but really it is the deputies that do a lot of work. what will they be assigned to do? what will happen post g-20? kim: depending on their communique and the language, it will be important, particularly on that phrase fair versus free and open. once they agree to a communique the deputies will come back and they will continue to work on ,apers that fulfill the pledge but most importantly they will repopulate within the administration where they think they are in

macro is improving, inflation is coming that. it makes actually a lot of sense.asve a well. it all comes from behind, but does it also indicate the bullish spirit with the way china has been looked at? you have gone overweight, having you? >> yes. clarity is improving. high. is we just had the mpc. this is carrying the markets along with it. especially the unloved stocks no one is watching, they had not rallied as much, so people are seeing where the laggards are at. cls a a few months ago that came out with a report about ranking and the banking industry in china, and the risks we are seeing. has that you change going into this year? how does that feature in how you feel about chinese assets? >> that view has not really changed. china has a problem with the banking system. what has surprised is the leadership putting a price on bad debt. quite responsive to broader concerns of bad debt in china. commodity prices everything, so that is where the bad debt is. npl ratios are trending downward. .hings are actually improving haidi: but right now you're seeing signs t

the global macro environment is improved. we see european indicators improving. we have incredible date of this morning. we see emerging market growth. emerging markets have the highest leverage the global growth -- we are positive on the global outlook. the only thing that holds us back from being super optimistic about european equities is the political risk. we are overweighted emerging-market equities. neutral on european stocks. the story theout bond market is telling -- we were talking a lot this week about the failure of the yield curve to steepen, to indicate economic growth is coming but inflation is coming? the stock market still hovering around all-time highs. katie: it doesn't seem to be a bit of a disconnect. we are seeing incredible demand for yield. insatiable demand for yield driving the investment-grade market, the high-yield bond market and the treasury market, the ultimate safety and security market in the world. we think yields are low in the u.s. but they shine by global standards. than global investors would be able to get elsewhere. we do s

let's put it in more of a macro perspective.holds that $40 a this is a long-term chart of oil in white with the energy etf in orange, going back to 1999. the blue bars represent major opec cuts and after those major production cuts we have seen big gains. we do see more of a pullback in oil and the xle, it would be fitting to some of the wavering in the of trends, but nonetheless uptrends. long-term,pear to be medium-term bullish. minister theresa may's green light to trigger article 50 sending sterling falling, one of the -- it has fallen 19% versus the dollar since the referendum. interestingly, the move came in the european trading, not in asian trading. it was almost delayed. >> we have to think of the moves we have seen in the past 24 hours as a continuation of a move we have seen since the beginning of february. the dollar isnst trading at 126 and we have come not been a-- it is big move since the flash crash or the massive moves we saw after the referendum. it has been day after day, a half percent here or there. a dovish

i am looking at global macro movers in the g10 space. a mixed picture when it comes to stocks.a bit of a pause in scandinavian countries. the dollar index really down to 100.03 after the yellen decision. of course, you see the bloomberg dollar index is down as well. that's not to the benefit of the euro so much as to the benefit of the yen. some other countries we are looking at, united kingdom, one point 81. let's get to abigail doolittle who has a deeper look at what's in emerging markets today. abigail: we have christopher adviser to pimco saying he considers emerging-market equities to still be attractive. he said it's the trade of the decade. he has been pretty successful so far. in blue, we have the s&p 500 up since january of last year during all of that macro volatility. we have the emerging market index up 37% during that time. emerging markets have outperformed the s&p 500. he also thinks valuation is attractive and that weakness in the dollar could help. let's look at the technicals on the emerging market index on an does from a long-term perspective. ais is a monthl