let's go to a global macro movers.ow that we certainty about the end of bond buying and the fact that there will be no moves on interest rates until next year, stocks are higher. south korea, down by 1.8%, and some other moves which we have already mentioned that australian dollar move is a fascinating one as well. comcast of course is in the news, challenging the mouse house with a $65 billion bid for fox's entertainment assets, the largest all-cash merger offer ever. joining us now is rebecca kenzie. that itsy convince fox offer is still the most compelling? expectationhink the is that disney will have to come back with a higher offer. it will not be able to rely on this argument that the regulatory environment as much as fox needs to rely on disney. does this come down to who bids the most? is that a gunfight now? rebecca: that is what it is i think itto be, and is unclear who wants fox the most. we will see in the coming days whether disney ups its bid or waits for fox, for fox to make an official recommendation. t

say hope i did not explicitly mention the conflict between macros conservative c.d.u. and it's a very and sister party the c.s.u. machall repeated that she does not want to close germany's borders to certain refugees without first having made agreements with neighboring countries. be months later and then whichever way you look at it migration is a european challenge perhaps the greatest challenge at the moment the cohesion of the european union is at stake. it is the role of peace in u. . a former refugee said an emotional highpoint a tamil who as a thirteen year old fled to germany without his parents and then grew up and started an impressive career here. it's been a tried list i didn't become a refugee voluntarily but i did come to germany voluntarily because it's so wonderful to live in a country where democracy reigns where we respect the constitution we must never allow our fundamental values to be threatened if it. and see who seem to be moved by the story of a man who went from refugee to heart surgery. to two conservative leaders or at least trying to mend fe

translation macro i feel very strong. i feel like i translation macro i feel very strong. push a tree like my body is a mind because of the strengths of the tramadol. it also makes him angry and confused. i think it has taken too much. he cannot get work because of his addiction. the stuff lives in north—east nigeria at the centre of the against boko haram. he volunteered as a vigilante fighter. translation: when i go into the bush, even the way i roam, the way i walk is different, it gives me strength to fight the insurgents. the drug is making warriors out of ordinary young man. and boko haram are on the too. the dasha they tell us are on the too. the dasha they tell us when you take it you would be less afraid. it will make you strong and courageous. when you are going into battle, you will be given at the tate. here, a generation of opioid addicts is being made. we had cause over time to talk to people during counselling and they said what else can we do? we just want to get out of the wall. we want to escape the reality of this trauma. they find themselves just fallin

s line from bernard buckle up macro talk a new reform in the shadow of the migration crisis the german and french leaders called for a unified european response but is emmanuel macro support enough to help merkel at home she's under intense pressure put in her coalition to find a solution to the refugee crisis by the end of them are also on the program record numbers of people running for their lives the united nations refugee agency estimates that sixty nine million people around the world were forcibly displaced last year playing with violence and persecution. and on day six of the football world cup in russia japan proved to be no pushover when they opened the unpredictable group nights against colombia we'll bring you the highlights. on phil gayle welcome to the program. germany's chancellor angela merkel is insisting on a unified european response to migration she met with france's president emmanuel mccraw today to discuss euro zone reform and to find solutions to europe's migration crisis the chancellor said europe should stand up for its democratic principles and call for great

time is running out for the two sides to reach a compromise if they don't under macro's government could be serious trouble. i spoke to do you have your chief political editor michelle occur and also with a chance to make you still had enough support from our coalition partners or might the government fall apart over the issue of migration. quite a way off that particular scenario but certainly this is the most severe challenge she's faced to date from within her party coalition of the c.d.u. and the more conservative c.s.u. sister party in bavaria and just to illustrate that everybody here in political berlin starts believing that anything could be possible there was a fake tweet today which really spread like wildfire which allege that hospital for the interior minister would basically give up on the concept of having a joint parliamentary group that would stop and be a step away sort of actually giving up the coalition but it would give up that particular group well that spread before that particular message could really be the mosque has been fake even had a brief impact on the euro

for a lot of people i think the president his election if you will is do a lot of credit for this macro economic confidence recognized for coming off an obama administration that approached regulation in a way that really crimp corporate profits really cramped and poignant a lot of critics of donald trump would suggest he hasn't done much different but i will tell you that the corporate confidence is a direct reflection the fact that this president has come in and said we're going to reduce regulations we're going to increase profitability and as a result we're going to reduce unemployment and create greater jobs that is a macro economic trend that yes this president deserves credit for one of the issues that the president will have to wrestle with whether it happens or not and whether he can affect it or not is there's a difference between economic growth and wage growth if if american people are paying more for their health insurance if they're paying more for gas prices if they're not actually seeing their take home wages go up we've just seen the fed increase interest rates which wi

that is ji—macro.ther meeting, the minutes of that show staff being warned that if people continue to speak out about the prescribing methods, that could undermine the good work being donein could undermine the good work being done in the unit and the matter was never referred to again. that, i think, is what the prime minister was talking about when she referred to public institutions closing ranks and what the health secretary was talking about when talking about public services, protecting their own reputation rather than dealing with their failings. it is a cultural problem and we've seen it before in the health service. the bristol heart death inquiry, for scandal that followed the inquiry, backin scandal that followed the inquiry, back in the 90s, an old boys culture was blamed for disguising the high death rates. more recently the inquiry into the unnecessary deaths and suffering at stafford hospital talked about an institutional culture focused on doing the system's business, not that of the pa

macro is coming back into fashion, alan howard one of the better-known macro investors.ten crushed course of 2017 with making money in macro. hedge funds can be so volatile. who knows what they will do. jason kelly, always wonderful to speak with you. caroline: coming up next, it's the european close. mark barton will be joining you. food and beverage companies getting a hit today. ftse 100 is flat. this is bloomberg. ♪ retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network spee across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outman comcast business outmaneuver. matt: alix mark: it's 11:00 a.m. in york. there's 30 minutes left in the trading session in europe today. from bloomberg's european headquarters, i mark barton. vonnie: this is the european close on bloomberg ♪ ♪ mark: here are the top sto

for a lot of people i think the president his election if you will is do a lot of credit for this macro economic confidence recognized for coming off an obama administration that approached regulation in a way that really crimp corporate profits really crimped employment a lot of critics of donald trump would suggest he hasn't done much different but i will tell you that the corporate confidence is a direct reflection of the fact that this president has come in and said we're going to reduce regulations we're going to increase profitability and as a result we're going to reduce unemployment and create greater jobs that is a macro economic trend yes this president deserves credit for one of the issues that the president will have to wrestle with whether it happens or not and whether he can affect it or not is there's a difference between economic growth and wage growth if if american people are paying more for their health insurance if they're paying more for gas prices if they're not actually seeing their take home wages go up we've just seen the fed increase interest rates which will i

so far we feel comfortable on that macro economic outlook.t there is a vulnerability in the markets, where do you go for a safe haven? lisa: we are actually still being very positive on some of the most growth oriented sectors. while there is uncertainty overhang from what is going on with some of the tariff issues and so on, some of our favorite sectors are technology and consumer discretionary. again, while some of them may be in the crosshairs of what develops in the next few weeks, if you look at the underlying growth trends in those areas, they both have secular trends, changes in disruption of technology, ability to innovate, ability to pick up more share because of shifting consumer taste. in addition, you have some specific companies operating very well. with that blend of top-down and bottom-up forces being able to support some of those sectors, and the fact that market is looking for growth in a very modest overall environment, we continue to feel some of those sectors our clients should stick with. alix: any benefits getting into c

it accounts for the macro are dynamic scoring effect. and those changes that passed through the removal of the individual mandate. with that small net effect create a little bit more revenue were little less revenue that we project over the long term for the first order of effects would be negligible. you have different information than i have why i asked the question but pass-through businesses now with the consent would contribute to the erosion of the payroll tax base, would it not? >> i believe that is true. >> let me answer that. the information that we actually got from that joint committee. >> let me ask you this so can you explain why the social security trust fund as reserves? >> largely because with the law they do not have the ability or the capacity or the legal right to borrow so it is essential to pay benefits from one month to the next that we have some reserves to draw upon just in case heaven for bed we ever have another recession or reason and we need to have a condition and then to have those reserve just in case thing

and nothing changed but maintaining the brand takes effort macro and really trying. the libyan people aspire to safety stability to live better to be able to express their sovereignty yes about safety and stability done a coastal city in libya has been under siege for almost a year now and it's only gotten worse the escalation of fighting there has reached unprecedented levels once the un the libyan national army led by general have to who was at summit is trying to take the city from a local warlord and islamists it's been a tough battle. on this happy occasion we say that zero hour for durness city liberation has come. local sources report the protection forces a currently taking positions among civilian infrastructure in residential areas mostly in the center of the city and reportedly in civilian clothing since twenty second me there's been a rising civilian casualty toll as a result of indiscriminate shelling of residential areas general half dollars are tribal handed i'll mistreat was also micron's gathering he urged for an immediate cease fire and took a jab a

that's the macro message this morning from the international energy agency.he iea putting out its monthly oil outlook and they expect the recent spike in prices to ease up the group also sticking with its current demand forecast for next year they did caution things like a trade war, economic slowdown could present downside risks they may not have factored in that breaking news that we just talked about, which is, as you saw me gesticulating wildly, the story we just gave you we'll bring you more on that saudi story in a bit >>> shares of zte deep in the red after resuming trading in hong kong. eunice yoon has more >> reporter: thank you very much zte shares dropped 40% today in hong kong wiping $3 billion off the company's market value investors were punishing the stock because they're worried about the hefty financial penalties that the company will have to pay as part of a deal to get the u.s. commerce department to lift a ban blocking the company from buying american components zte has been penalized because it violated sanctions by illegally selling equi

germany call for our unified european response but is emmanuel mccraw support enough to help on the macro at home she's under intense pressure within her coalition to find a solution to the refugee crisis by the end of the month also on the program record numbers of people voting for that lives the un your refugee agency estimates sixty nine million people around the world are not displaced.

camps may be preoccupied with the scandal itself, but the macro environment is fairly positive.you are seeing emerging markets central bankers making headlines, getting ahead of fed tightening, now the ecb potentially following suit. policy certainty when you don't even have leadership certainty at the central bank? over, we willes be looking at the economy itself. we have seen commodity prices a little higher. relativelys well-behaved. zero rate for gst will help. the uncertainty is whether this will postpone big-ticket items. it will be a drag on the broader economy. strong exports could be offset by slow investments. private consumption could be limited as a result in lower tax remains to be seen. rates -- we may be awaiting the impact on the broader economy. part of the narrative or the stories is u.s. dollar strength, country fundamentals. at inould you be looking terms of who was looking more resilient when it comes to domestic fundamentals? juncture, headline resilientsupported by domestic demand, reasonably positive from an economy study -- standpoint. there is an area o

you know the macro setup in the state. unemployment is just 3.8%. earnings growth up more than 20%.ld come in at more than 4% oh, yeah, small cap and tech stocks domestically, all they do is keep making new highs things, in other words, are good joining us now, founder and lead market strategist at north man trader sven, thank you for joining us warren buffet selling part of usb. the drywall manufacturer in the united states. buffet loves to buy low and he loves to sell high when you see warren selling, does it make you think maybe now's the time >> well, look, when we looked at the recent rally that we've seen, like a month ago we talked about s&p maybe reaching and filling the gap at 127.50. the question is do we now see an improvement in participation what we've seen is a divergence in favor of a few stocks making these gains. you just mentioned all the back drop of e good news. >> so much good news. >> so much good news you know, ironically the larger market is not participating at all. >> why not that's the mystery. >> maybe it is a mystery, maybe it's in the a mystery. on the

simon derrick i mean, the whole tariff discussion, trade wars have been difficult to play from the macro perspective. i get it from the individual company basis. companies have benefited in currencies, has there been a material impact or material trades out of these trade wars >> i think only a very specific level. so we stopped talking about mexico and canada. yes, you are seeing specific reactions on that particular headlines. you saw the mexican peso under pressure and this back of the story about the tariffs. but overall, it's been up for the markets and the play here -- here we are, you know, a couple of days away from the g7 meeting which looks like it could be one of the liveliest summit meetings in decades and yet the foreign exchange market is largely ignoring it. how does it play out well, if you take the view that it could well, you know, about sent inflationary pressures in the u.s. which i think that the recent arguments in favor of that should be actually a trade war, then that probably is a time when we have already got pressure coming on yields in the u.s. pushing beyond

its macro risk management, the stuff we are kind of good at and have been good at for a very long time if you are -- if they are not your neighbors but they are coming to you online, it's digital delivery and digital platforms, which we are kind of good at and have done for a long time. it's obviously a big customer .xperience to this in the firm a lot of those risk management decisions that have been made, the distributions and the algorithms that one would go into, it is kind of in our wheelhouse. one of the reasons why that represents a big opportunity for us is that we don't have legacy stores. we don't have thousands and thousands of branches that we have to protect on the one hand, and the silicon valley crowd that would normally come into the space are not licensed --osit takers without bob without deposit sheets. they really can't kind of do it, jerry rigging and securitizing these loans, making them the same. it's rare that you would get a big bank like ours that doesn't have a legacy consumer business. >> it strikes me that goldman at the moment, you feel the loss from big co

is it name specific, the private market, or macro?s through this photo where we look at -- period where we look at macros and earnings. we had a lot of excitement and now we are turning back to macros. over the next weeks we will -- once we get through opec we will look at more earnings. trade will fade a little bit into the background. it will be a more earnings driven market for the next four weeks following that. what you are seeing in the ipo market is a bifurcation. growth is getting well bid. some technology companies have done extraordinarily well. we have even lost and post validation of an ipo pricing to m&a. seller growth companies or companies with significant leverage are being forced to accept the discount and some people are not ready to accept that discount. >> i hear opec and ipo and all i think is iran cover it -- robert santangelo, always good to catch up with you. what we are watching. trade fallout and disney's next move. you can check into gtb go and go and check out all the charts we have been using. ♪ >> trump s

effects of the tax bill. >> do you think the macro effects of the tax bill are stimulative? >> indeed. >> so if that's not taken into account, then your projections could actually be on the low side, and if they are, that will extend the life of both the disability and the retirement programs, is that correct? >> that could well be. and we'll see in the next trustee's report. the one further thing we have to look at is the great slowdown we've had in labor productivity in the past ten years. >> and if we can make further progress on our economic growth agenda in terms of merit based immigration, infrastructure, trade agreements, all those things matter, don't they? >> immigration is a huge factor for economic growth, no question. >> thank you, sir. i yield back. >> thank you. mr. hood, you're recognized. >> thank you, mr. chairman. i'm honored to be part of this subcommittee. this is my first subcommittee hearing. thank you for being here today. i was hoping you could walk me through your process of creating the report, and the average time it takes to do that. >> well, in w

over a refusal to accept a migrant rescue ship with more than six hundred people on board emmanuel macro had called the move irresponsible and cynical. immigration is causing a major germany which mean angela merkel's christian democrats and their bavarian sister party the christian social union you want to refuse entry to people who've already made asylum claims elsewhere in europe something chancellor merkel rejects that the seven people have died in renewed fighting between protesters and security forces in nicaragua on thursday activists demanding the resignation of president. for a twenty four hour strike streets in the capital. as protests and barricades one hundred sixty one people have been killed in two months of on rest protests initially began over social security cuts but expanded into demands to quit. the new york attorney general is suing president trump three of his children and their charitable foundation for allegedly violating state's charity law the two point eight million dollar lawsuit alleges the trump foundation engaged in extensive and unlawful coordination with t

global macro movers, you can pick any of the menu options.k at the basket but we can't ignore individuals completely and the yen is a little stronger today as well. there are risk off sentiments. it feels uncomfortable in the markets. mark: italian bond holders maybe feeling that today, showing their displeasure with two parliamentary appointments. have taken positions on the budget and finance. it's sparking a selloff in italian debt. give us an idea of who these gentlemen are and why a bond investors are spooked do= today. >> they have been campaigning, criticizing the euro even during the election campaign before the concernmarch 4 so the in the new lawmakers upper house and senate and in the lower house, they could have influence in shaping government policy. through aave been time with the formation of the populist government where there the issuess about between them and the eu. are the concerns back on the agenda? i think it was a bit of a panic because of these nominations. by thee laid down finance minister still holds. there is also

that's on a macro level. i want to talk about what i have seen progress on the macro level. here are so activists, advocates see to witness the implementation of it and its effects. and i have heard from rape survivors who were raped after the federal law passed, and they have told me how much these civil rights mean to them and so i know that you are all very busy with so many issues but i do want to relay to you that there are individual humans who have their lives impacted by these civil rights and that when you pass or work on these and bring them back to your communities, it really does matter. that 25 million figure, it's a large figure, but the people who are in it have their lives transformed by the laws and civil rights we're able to work on here so thank you so much. senator grassley: thank you. in states where you've achieved success, what factors were most important? what have been the challges? senator. : thank you, >> we'll air this later on the c-span networks. we leave this now as the u.s. house comes in. they'll begin work later this afternoon on the 2019 de

hope so i think what needs to be done is a strong economy like germany a powerful chancellor like macro needs to. have a she's understand the needs of everyone involved and there won't be a common european position unless we astronomers also listen to the needs of the southern countries also the central eastern european countries and that's the only way i mean. to be unified also has costs and you know you have to to do that in turn the e.u. bargain first i think that's what's happening right now we see this happening both front is that internally you bargain get even harder to make given the role of the new u.s. ambassador here he said this week that he sees his role within his new post as and powering right wing movements that is a very unusual thing for an ambassador to say wouldn't that amount to inciting the divisions we just saw in that report absolutely i think he crossed a red line for diplomats so i think that that's not appropriate behavior i think you have to understand wait and foreign policy should accomplish with shouldn't accomplish i mean should accomplish to influence o

i would note that the trustees were well aware of the possible macro effects. changes of economic growth on the trustees plan on looking deeper into that for the purpose of the upcoming 2019 trustees report. part of the reason there is a level of comfort is a projected growth is not that much in excess of others. for example, even with the latest numbers from cbo, the average annual rate of growth in gdp between 2017 and 2027 in real terms is less than 2%. it is 1.95%. the rate of growth is at 2.43% q. about one half% faster than cbo. there is still one half of 1% slower on the rate of growth in gdp over the next ten years and the trustees are. was slower growth you will have slower growth in the amount of tax revenue coming in not only for social security but other tax revenues. >> last year's report showed a major change with respect to when the disability insurance trust fund would be exhausted. the report showed that the trust fund would be exhausted in 2028. five years later than the trustees previous estimate. now, that date is 2032. that's a big change.

macro two of the medical staff who we re macro two of the medical staff who were on duty that night oner ago. the private service at southwark cathedral will honour the emergency services' response to last year's attack, as well as remembering those killed or injured. politicians are among those invited, along with relatives of the victims who will light candles during the ceremony. the dean of southwark, andrew nunn, will lead the service. we're obviously going to be remembering the events of a year ago, but the service isn't going to dwell upon that. but hopefully it will take people through, to look to the future, a positive way forward. it's meant to be all about healing. for the people who were caught up in it in so many different ways, everybody‘s experience was very different that night. there are some people who are bereaved, some people bearing injuries, physical or mental. the community has been changed, in many ways strengthened. people have reacted in a variety of different ways, and we've been trying to hold that as the cathedral for this whole community. so, coming togethe

it's a nice new prime minister just having conte and french president manuel macro have agreed on the need for new initiatives on e.u. immigration the two sides are to gauge in a war of words over rome's refusal to accept a migrant rescue ship with more than six hundred people on board macro underline the need for the two countries to work together on the migrant crisis left france france just like italy has to manage just migration crisis and we have to provide better solutions together i think all our discussions have allowed us to illustrate this joint responsibility and this desire to have at the same time more humanity and more effectiveness in dealing with this subject of having a cooperative approach and to apply european solutions that you know will be inserted the money nobody in europe can wash their hands with regard to migration problem the new approach must constantly keep human rights in mind particularly with regard to the human traffickers that are profiting from this in the human trade we have to change the treaty of dublin not only in the interest of italy which toda

donald trump to reverse his decision to impose metal tariffs on several allies french president manuel macro and canadian prime minister justin trudeau held talks in also ahead of the g. seven summit on friday tensions over trade threaten to overshadow discussions between the seven world leaders macro has warned a trade war will not spare anyone and will hit u.s. workers for. something to pull to keep the complete books only going to be the measure second are counterproductive even for the u.s. economy and for me it's a matter of principle we can't wait to trade war against friends we're all involved in complex syria iraq and subsaharan reach into different areas of the world where allies we exchange critical information or soldiers stand side by side to defend our freedom and a values that we cannot decide in such a context on a trade war or me it's a matter of principle. the red cross says it's pulling seventy one stuff out of yemen because of rising security incidents and threats the aid groups say it will lead the crippled to the crippling of its lifesaving work the concerns are mounting

policyded some macro framework.e going to continue seeing expansionary, aggressive growth policy? will they return to more moderate policy with rebalancing the economy which is overheating. the geopolitics of play externally, we have rarely seen relations with the united states and turkey so bad. for thes this all make turkish population at the moment? nail on the head. there is a big domestic conversation. there is double-digit inflation. he did not win by a huge margin. the central bank is another question that is highly contested. they are in a guessing game. when it comes to foreign relations, you look it was happening with united states, 70% of the turkish electorate erdogan. for mr. we live with happening with the european union, relations are not as good as they were. around the region, not many runs outside russia. the world will be looking for the direction of turkey on foreign policy and economics. vonnie: thank you. bloomberg daybreak middle east anchor. courtney: president trump is ratcheted up his deman

simply ineffective 30 minutes after the fire broke out, because the stairwell, the only escape route macroed with smoke. incredibly, the policy remained in place for a further hour and 20 minutes, people still being told to stay in the building when it was engulfed in flames. there will bea was engulfed in flames. there will be a lot of scrutiny of the fire service, and of the materials used in the refurbishment but also the way the building was designed. what we have heard from the experts reports today is that the building materials, in their opinion, were not appropriate, but the way the cladding system was fitted together, the gaps that it had exposed the plastic core of the cladding, the combustible part, because it was exposed, the flames captured on that and spread rapidly through the building. a lot of people with questions to answer, tom burridge, thank you. a teenagerfrom london has been found guilty of plotting a terror attack as part of britain's first all female cell, pledging allegiance to the islamic state group. safaa boular was 16 when she was first investigated by the pol

back with george pearkes, global macro strategist at bespoke investment group.fore the were talking about perspective tightening. we were talking about the yield for the 15 largest economies, the policy, the tpp. i mean, that shows financial tightening, conditions back to where we were in 2015. talk us through the significance of this at this moment. george: yeah, so i do think sometimes economists can overstate the impact of interest rates on economic activity for a variety of reasons, but at the day, capital costs day, capital costs more, it will be more challenging to get stuff done that you need to borrow to invest. you need to borrow to consume. you need to borrow at the macro level to finance your current account deficit or whatever it is you need to do. i do think it has been underappreciated how much it has risen in aggregate around the world, not just th because of tightening by the federal reserve, which is a sign of strength in the u.s. economy, but it is also true for inflation and emergency emerging -- in emerging markets. a perfect example would be

the macro story focused on the divergence between the fed and the ecb.id things were great. draghi, not so much. we think it is appropriate for the ecb to be more cautious. things weresaid good but he also stressed he was not ready to declare victory on inflation. it is hard to see -- they are not particularly hawkish. >> they took a hike from 2020 and put one more in. they are not any tighter as you forecast, but they are hiking additional time in this year and effectively next year. they are going above neutral before the end of next year. the market had a very hard time pricing the fed being above neutral. julia: what does that mean for the euro-dollar? you got a four to five hike from the federal reserve, when the ecb is still sitting on its hands, what does that mean in your mind for euro-dollar? >> the broader trend is towards dollar weakness. structurally. for the reasons you just talked about, the divergence trade is favoring the dollar. you have hawkish fed, and somewhat dovish ecb. joe: what are the factors you are talking about? >> a couple. t

but i got to tell you, they managed through the macro last quarter pretty darn well and i think we are continuing to go higher, even in this circus that we're in. >> last quarter wasn't particularly hard to manage. the stimulus from the tax bill hitting -- >> that's right. >> i don't feel like it was that low. >> we are up 25% in the quarter. and estimates were revised up 9% >> right >> on that 25% growth, that tells me that people were not expecting as strong -- and by the way, it was not just earnings that were good, it was cyclicals good, the margins were good. >> but i think the environment has been -- but the environment is -- if you ask a corporate manager in almost any segment of the company, other than pawnshops and liquor stores, what environment do you want i don't know, how about a freshly printed tax reform bill? and how about unemployment sub 4% and how about interest rates barely having risen. so that's a pretty easy -- >> that's unreasonable to ask this question, is this as good as it gets >> it might be why can't we do 10%, also above average, next year and be happy wit

at let's bring in our macro man. great to have you with us. these -- you only have me on when it goes horribly wrong. julia: we will try to shift that. some of the trades we have been talking about is the relative safe haven. time for technology stocks and the greatest risk paring today? to sayppose it is safe that maybe the market got a little bit complacent. we also made these observations the last couple of. ey seem be raining. discussed a few minutes ago, the internal price action was much more reminiscent of 2017 when we had the slow grind up with no correlation across s&p 500 stocks. week, we is that last actually ground down in relatively low volatility fashion. the individual stocks seemed to be trading on an idiosyncratic acis rather than a systemic basis. and it is much more of a systemic thing. ultimately, sort of putting up and metaphorical wall, as it were, and say we don't want foreign capital in the market isn't really a good thing. julie: you have a chart of the correlations or the lack thereof. if it is an actual trade war, yo

it is very much its own macro story but politically the issue of refugees and anger towards migrantsd immigrants is at play. home ofntry is in a big syrian refugees. syria is just to the eastern border of turkey. there is unrest about the cost and disruptions caused by unwelcome migrants. that political economically, turkey is a unique case because it has its own currency and has a massive current account deficit. vonnie: what will be the biggest change, depending on who wins? >> the biggest change, if erdogan wins, not a change but acceleration of current trends, noticeably in the politics. this has been increasingly prickly and arbitrary regime. if the opposition wins, all bets are off in terms of change, things will change but how they change remains to be seen. it will be a case to watch. caroline: we thank you for your expertise. can access the charts on bloomberg tv, multifunction g tv . save them for future reference or just admire their beauty. this is bloomberg. ♪ york, i ame from new vonnie quinn. caroline: i am caroline hyde with the european close minutes away. vonnie

deficit are economists are actually pretty much in a great agreement it has to do with the macro economic imbalance between domestic sources of saving and the attractiveness of investment and it happens to be the case that the those reasons have nothing to do with protectionism that what could end up being the case everybody is poor and the trade balance imbalances remain it's getting investment in saving back into the line meaning the united states would have to start saving now. in particular the large future deficits should be something that the u.s. congress should worry much more about those reasons aside now we've going one step further brussels has said that it will retaliate is drawn up at least with jeans bourbon whiskey cranberries oranges motorbikes for example and also he says that it wants to take that case to the world trade organization now i think it's fair to say that president trump has shown a flagrant disregard for such institutions do you think this would be enough to force his hand oh there's no silver bullet in dealing with this in ministration so these are symbolic

migration crisis the german and french leaders called for a unified european response but is emmanuel macro support enough to help merkel at home she's under intense pressure but in her coalition to find a solution to the refugee crisis by the end of the month also on the program record numbers of people running for bad lives.

climb down from their positions again one thing is for sure damage has been done to i'm going to macros leadership and it still is being done as i speak here but meanwhile i'm going to make is also said she's looking for a european solution do you see this going anywhere briefly if you can be. well basically she asked her own m.p.'s for two weeks more time that's all she wanted until that e.u. summit that is coming up this m.p.'s are now rallying behind her even the ones that criticized her but this use you won't give her that time we should have our chief political editor thank you very much for that analysis. let me not bring you up to date with some other stories making news around the bond a court in hungary has sentenced four members of a people smuggling gang to trente five years in prison he chose for letting dozens of men women and children suffocate inside a truck. the seventy one victims were part of a brave people fleeing fleeing to europe at the height of the refugee crisis in two thousand and fifteen u.s. secretary of state mike on peel has warned there are still a risk oph

political correspondent report to a developed welcome rupert's so is this summit enough to save the macro. well at least anglo-american health thinks that she has reason to be optimistic and so far what we have heard from her conservative bloc of c.d.u. and sees you these two parties which have been so much at odds during the last two weeks she's quite rightly to do so. both parties seem to have chosen to pick whatever they need to most of the sees you the strong critics of anglo markel say that only the pressure that they have applied to the chancellor and to the government has made this outcome possible that this change of migration policy in the end is a result of their pressure and supporters especially within the c.d.u. say this is a victory of multilateralism that this this would be the european solution until america how promised and that she delivered but in the end both party boards have to decide this is going to take place this sunday ok i have said that i was going to go get some sleep this weekend doesn't like anyone's going to get any sleep at the c.s.u. what also tighten th

on the plus side, this is directed by the director who made the cat macro orphanage and a monster callsare moments in this film where you think you see the film he probably wa nted think you see the film he probably wanted to make. there is one gripping scene in a child's bedroom which recalls an iconic scene from los ratti. you think this is scary, this creepy. the rest of it feels more mechanical. when it started out asa more mechanical. when it started out as a film about fairground rides involving dinosaurs, it is perhaps not surprising. they have swapped roles between chris pratt and bryce dallas howard. that is interesting. in the last movie the dinosaurs were more convincing than the human counterparts. but now bryce dallas howard has got rid of the high heels and you do feel there is some human interest. the best i can say is it is fine, and there are moments in it that i think ok, that is the movie i would like to have seen, but it is very much a mechanical blockbuster roller—coaster ride. it is better thanjurassic roller—coaster ride. it is better than jurassic world which fel

scott: wing number two, there is no macro evidence -- there is no evidence that this is having an impact. in fact, he have seen the climate in metal industries continue to rise which is a pretty sign. on the flipside, and this is an important factor, when you have seen the price of steel and aluminum drop precipitously because of china's market distorting activities, you haven't seen those savings passed directly along to consumers. the businesses have cap to those. there are sitting on top of $1.5 trillion in a tax cut savings, and they have certainly accrued profits in savings due to purchasing the subsidized steel. so i do i think have a lot of empathy for some of these issues, but it does work both ways. knowique: if you want to the cost of steel tariffs, you can look at 2002. the best studies out there show that the price of steel went up, which is to be expected. inmployment by all accounts the steel industry, went up either 0%, or by 1000 jobs. the loss in steel-consuming industries could have been up to 200,000 jobs, there are 140,000 jobs in the steel industry. this is the reaso

no, because the macro you mean if it's open ended? yeah. i suppose, yeah, the brexiteers.backstop is that it can only end once an alternative solution is found the it cannot be open ended but as we do not know how long it is going to give find a solution. that is what we are in this complete model and the brexiteers, as you say, clearly, deeply suspicious this is all a bit ofa deeply suspicious this is all a bit of a ploy by the prime minister who, lest we forget, did wrote remain. wanted to keep us in the uk by stealth, by the back door. the backstop, the back door to staying in. ok, the guardian. that's the secretary of state for health, jeremy hunt. this the quote inside —— to coincide with the 70th anniversary of the national health service. jeremy hunt gave an interview this going to air tomorrow. i think this has been in the moves, the 70th birthday next month, and it has been in easing off of austerity and sort of march. i think they are ready to spend more money. it's been a i% think they are ready to spend more money. it's been a 1% annual rise in 2010, which is n

president being belligerent whichever way you look at this photo posted on instagram by angular macros office you can't ignore the tension. that tension was evident before during and even after the g. seven summit ended in canada donald trump made sure of that he'd already angered his allies by slapping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from canada the european union and mexico and he used the g seven meeting to demand better trade deals for the u.s. while warning against retaliation over the sale here to make it a mistake because you see we have a tremendous trade imbalance so when we try and bring our piece up a little bit so that it's not so bad and then they go up right the difference is they do so much more business with those than we do with them that we can't lose that you understand we can't listen and with that trump left the show five hours early but even with his warning in mind justin trudeau still felt obliged to promise his own retaliatory tariffs. i highlighted directly to the president that canadians did not take it lightly. that the united states has moved forward

it was the queen powers—macro first investiture as the new monarch. high honour been so modestly assumed by bill speakman. three years ago he returned to south korea to donate his medals to the south korean people. they can have my medal for future generations to look at and see what it did is all about. we are not looking for glory, i think it is the sensible thing to do. it is my way of showing you that i love you andi way of showing you that i love you and i love being here and it isjust my way of saying, remember me being here. he said he wanted his ashes scattered in south korea, the land and people he defended. naomi cornwell reporting there. time for a look at the weather with tomasz shafernaker. we have been predicting that the weather is going to be sunny and nothing has changed and it is looking beautiful. however, bear in mind that the uv levels will be very high and the risk of burning quickly, for those sun worshippers in the park and on the coasts and also the pollen levels will be very high in parts of the uk. the satellite image from t