the macro trans uc are what frame the discussion as to what to do about it. -- the macro trends you see. i'm talking about four trends. the first is a pretty substantial shift in the balance of power regionally. as iran rises, as the united states is perceived to be receding in influence, withdraw from iraq, preoccupation elsewhere. there is the sense that there is a shift. it is felt that iran is on the rise and america is on the decline. one of our policy recommendations is what we think about? what should we do to the region to signal the permanence of our presence? so that iran is not think that there is a day after america where it is unfettered in the region. the second macro trend is the idea that its nuclear addition would not happen in isolation. in the fall 2002 in the run-up to iraqi free and there was only one in the persian gulf and it was not iraq, but iran which had just disclosed it had a clandestine nuclear program. today there are at least 14. the list goes on. some undoubtedly sick this capability because they have legitimate energy needs. turkey, for example. i would