manus: this is "daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny in dubai.erberations could be quite profound private we will get a little bit more from the fed minutes. a quick snapshot on what is going on with risk. i got drawn into the iron or story, it was a bit left field to go with on cpi data but i think it tells more about the malevolence and the risk of stimulus in china. iron ore and commodities down, 11 of the big steel mills or cutting prices. dani: i like that a lot. it is the rally in china bonds, they have barely moved. but they have been rallying at the moment those yields are the lowest since november. it's a story of, we don't know it's going to happen in the u.s. and europe on monetary policy but china sure looks like it's going to keep the easy policy. manus: harker says do we need to keep going on and on and then go w,hoops, we will little too far, too fast. when is it appropriate to pause? the consequence of all of that is if we going to pause mode and fed speak versus what's happening in the market, which is three rate cuts by the end

manus: good to see you.e've got hartnett and hedges this morning, michael hartnett at bank of america says commercial real estate is the boa constrictor around the u.s. economy and will suffocate growth for the next two years. does that mean the commercial real estate bond and associated risk is toxic? azhar: well, there are some differences from i think 2008 in terms of residential mortgages and those bonds. one is the size of the market, the amount indicated, and i guess the big difference is a lot of this risk is sitting on the regional banks's balance sheets and that's something you should be focused on. it's not sitting on the big wall street banks's balance sheet in the same way. and certainly in the wider credit immunity, not as big a rest either. dani: when you're thinking about investing, a lot of folks really love corporate date -- debt right now him and it makes sense considering the yields you can get from it, especially if a default cycle looks different this time here at what point do you say t

dani: leaving me again, manus. manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". manus cranny in dubai with dani burger in london on the stories that set your agenda. dani: oil searches, stocks drop and treasury yields jump as opec-plus stuns with a surprise million barrels per day production cut. ubs will cut its workforce by up to 30% after completing the takeover of credit suisse. both banks face shareholders this week. plus, tesla reports record deliveries in the first quarter but fall short of elon musk's goal of 50% annual growth. you are back maybe just for one day on daybreak, but it is oil markets and ubs, it is literally your two beats coming to disrupt any hope you had of a calm returned from holiday. manus: his royal highness has a message, he is welcome on the bloomberg airwaves any day of the week. mcnally talking about $120 a barrel oil. quick snapshot. oil market coming back, two-year yield spiking higher, nervousness about inflation, the dollar first losses since 2020, better bid as we go risk off on the equity side. dani: completely different equ

manus: very good morning. eu $43 billion plan as opposed to de-risk on the asian producing chip -- asian to producing nations. will it succeed or will it end up a massive oversupply? william: [indiscernible] in a world where things have been duplicated, the semi conductor industry always affairs capacity. to build new capacity away from existing fan base in taiwan and korea, it takes longer. you have to build the infrastructure first. it takes quite a long time for them to come online. the weakness is currently not having to do with supply. even if you do get oversupply, the industry is very trusting. this tree, if prices have stopped falling -- [indiscernible] in the end, that more than makes up for the loss of the original volume. i'm not too worried. tom: on the china part of the story, i was visiting beijing a couple of weeks ago, spent a lot of time in that country. he says he is not seen such aggressive outreach policymakers to encourage foreign investors back in to the tech space. he is encouraged that

i am tom in london with manus cranny. manus: mixed economic picture. chinese consumers yield the fastest growth in a year but softness including industrial production ways on sentiment in the asian stock trade. outflows flood results. state street plunges the most in three years after customers withdrawal $26 billion in the first quarter. meanwhile, credit suisse sees science pole $4.4 billion since the ubs deal. plus, apple is said to open its first retail stores in india. the ceo of a tim cook, looks to usher in a new era of sales and manufacturing. tom, good morning. tom: good morning. earnings season underway. we have new lines from ericsson coming with a beat in terms of sales and adjusted earnings for the first quarter. adjusted earnings in the first quarter coming in at 4 billion, just over 4 billion swiss, swedish krona. it is a decent beat in terms of the first quarter adjusted earnings for ericsson in terms of sales. that was a beat coming in at 62.6 billion swedish krona versus the estimates of 16 billion on the margin front we know that ubs

manus: it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe", with me, manus cranny in dubai.ackenzie alongside in london. tom: the fed suggest the u.s. economy stalled in recent weeks, as access to credit tightens, stocks and futures our next. u.s. speaker kevin mccarthy proposes a $1.5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, as fears grow that falling tax revenues could hasten the date of a potential default. plus, tesla slumps 6% post-market as elon musk signals the ev maker will continue to cut prices to ward off rivals. manus: let's get into this tsmc numbers. tliv for everybody on your terminal. net income to hunt $6 billion is what we get -- $206 billion is what we get in terms of taiwan dollar's. the estimate was 94. on the margin side, it is expanding its margins to 56 point 3% from 64.4%, so a very comfortable beat. we're just waiting for a little more of a breakdown. the question is this, what kind of orders will they get from the u.s.? what kind of big new deals will they get from the u.s., and biden is pushing taiwan come on shore, friendsure to us, come to america

manus: ok. let's see what happens with that arraignment we are just showing pictures of him being taken out of the back of the van. john, thank you very much. we will track the story. the president saying he is not so much concerned about the data but concerned about actually how it happened. the largest u.s. bank is set to get off the broader earnings season. wells fargo and citibank and morgan stanley all due later today and will be focused on deposit during the recent making term. did money flow into the big, big names, morgan stanley, jpm, etc.? our senior finance editor is here. is that the focus, the flows on the doors rather than the projection on credit or what would be are you? >> it is a range of things investors will focus on. investors are interested in the earnings but what we have seen in the first quarter has been a busy quarter. we have the credit suisse crisis, the banking crisis in the u.s.. all of these things will be on the minds of people looking at these results p --. depos

good morning to you, manus.ade this argument at the top of the show and i'm going to do it again. we love to make a point and repeat things here. i honestly think the bank earnings that come out on friday are going to be more important for this market then cpi, because the debate right now is not whether inflation is coming in, it's how much have credit conditions tightening, and i think things will give us a sign of that. manus: i think in the guidance, in the polls and interviews, that is when we will get a hit of whether that -- a hint of whether that contraction on access to credit and lending in march is something they see as an onerous sign. i think there's a triptych of narrative in regards to credit. one comes from the fed minutes, one comes from goldman sachs, and one comes from reynard who is concerned about the banks -- from brainerd. bitcoin, mike nova rhett says $40,000. it looks like it is one and done from the fed and oil is down by .3%. don't fade at the drop in the dollar. dollar weakness is not

manus: ok, maybe a sense of exhaustion.he one kirsty -- the one currency that's an interesting is the swiss franc. you flag it for some reasons it's maybe reenergized, credit suisse, ubs, the merger has gone through, the country risk has this abated. you would say you are more interested in what the swiss national bank has been doing and will they continue to intervene? that's the debate, isn't it? sonja: they intervene quite aggressively in the fourth quarter. it's odd, if you look at it chart of last year and i told you to guess when the s&p intervened, you would pick the wrong moment because the swiss franc appreciated quite a lot. it is very counterintuitive but i think they using the interventions as a means to siphon off some liquidity. they never did qe and they are worried about inflation. the big question is what have they done in the first quarter? the swiss franc has been pretty strong and to me that perhaps suggest they are still active in the market. the big thing, when will the inflation come down? it's still

manus: it is. a little more compacted in that it came into that vortex of the week of the 12th of march. 60 odd billion out the door. 47 from wealth. that is far below the worst ex the most, the likes of citi expecting 100 billion. in an extreme scenario they see dissipation from wealth management and asset earning earnings to be up near 300 billion. i would say this is about deposits and not necessarily asset relationships. i said that to you 30 minutes ago. there are some other interesting items here. i want to focus a little bit on the 1.3 billion of a write-down in the wealth management business. this is a sort of starting point for the injury afflicted on the wealth management business by the nervousness, the exodus of money, the risk of human capital leaving the bank, i the risk of major clients and family relationships leaving management. this write-down is in there as well. this bank took liquidity support in this quarter and we have to see if this is as slow -- a slow dissipation in both m

tom: sergio ermotti speaking to manus cranny there. let's bring is -- bring in manus cranny at this week. the stock dropping 5% so far in the session. manus: it's a very interesting open i think if you stand back from the conversation around integration with credit suisse and actually look at the numbers, net interest, net income dropped by over 50%. they took a knock on retail mortgage-backed securities and transactions down. net interest income up in the wealth and judgment. what you're going to hear out there is why did they not get more of the flow show into ubs after the debacle of credit suisse or perhaps even in the run-up? that is $28 billion that came in and $7 billion came in after the deal closed. ermotti in the conversation said we saw inflows from all regions, but could he pin that $7 billion on credit suisse? no he could not. he said -- i said are you not concern that you're not getting more of the pie? since you $9 billion went out the door from assets at credit suisse. he said it shows a healthy competition and as a nar

manus: as i said.they will not get full disclosure of what is inside the credit suisse investment bank which is where the angst really lies. i think this audience in the investor audience will want to know a little bit more about the integration process. the chair has already said it will be a culture of filter. the people i had meetings with yesterday said it is not a done deal that everybody in wealth management at credit suisse will be up and over the fence into ubs, ky c. note your client. the benchmarks to know your client are different within ubs. that kind of assurance in terms of what they will do and what kind of culture filter there will be. don't forget kelleher the chairman said this is the basic -- biggest transaction since 2008 and there will be more risks. he said peak harvard law is what is going on in america. peak mckenzie is this, putting these two giants together. the number of consultants that will be involved. what is interesting is you have two people joined at the hip in terms o

manus: it has been the core driver. alpha of deutsche bank, if you let me use that word, is within fic, fixed income currency. to a certain extent, that has gone on adrift for two quarters. vol collapsed at certain periods during the first quarter, we talked about whether it was a good indicator or not, but rates volatility has dropped, that knocked the numbers. we didn't quite get around to who are you hiring? and people are saying to me, they are hiring in rates and credit, and people are saying that is overstating the case, they are being idiosyncratic, not beefing up that part of the business, but it is a core part of the bank. are your private bankers knocking on the doors of everybody in europe and there was a wry smile, this is one of those once-in-a-lifetime opportunities for wealth managers and bankers around europe. dani: fantastic interview, fantastic 50-meter dash as well from deutsche bank to bloomberg. that's bloomberg's manus cranny in frankfurt with that fantastic interview with deutsche bank cfo james v

manus cranny and basel switzerland. the cleveland fed president loretta mester has called for policymakers to move the benchmark rate above 5% this year. she said rates should be held to restrictive levels to bring down inflation. >> i plan to remain diligent in setting monetary policy to return the economy to price stability and be judicious in balancing the risks to minimize the pain of that journey. joining us now is william davies the global chief investment officer at columbia threadneedle . we want to talk about the banks and figuring out these two incredible businessmen and what they will do. when you look at inflation, this is not an easy environment for banks especially for the banking crisis that continues. william: you are absently right. as we went through 2022, a lot of investors thought that banks were in a good position because the margins could rise as we saw a rates increase. we have seen the risks of that over the last month with ubs and credit suisse coming together. then the failure of svb and signat

it's a strategy he's used for many years, manu and you guys know this. um let's see now the fact that he's not president, whether that's a strategy that can work and we'll see also, what actually they have uncovered. we've heard so much about those criticizing this case. they say there's no case we'll see what the actual the evidence here. cnn's christian homes is back with us. she's live in west palm beach, christian. what are you seeing now on the ground? just moments ago, the entire motorcade passed right bias. they came out of the gates of mar-a-lago. there were supporters. they're cheering for the former president, and they headed down to the airport. and as we reported, this is about a 10 minute drive to the private area of the airport, where trump's plane is he is traveling with a smaller group than normal. usually there is a larger group of advisors. he has a small group of his core senior advisers, including his 2024 campaign heads suzy wiles and chris loss, evita. they were board that plane take off and head to laguardia airport in new york. i

manu hits at a key point. that position holds as long as democrats stay together.hite house wanting to maintain that position, working to make sure that stays the case and raises the question what happens next, what happens now is right now, there doesn't seem to be a great answer to it. >> so far, democrats are united on this issue. we will be watching closely. phil, manu, thank you. >>> joining me now to discuss is republican congresswoman victoria of indiana. thank you for joining us. so i know you were undecided on how you would vote earlier today. at this point, have you made up your mind? >> i have, and i'll be open minded. but it's pour important that we have grandstanding and not willing to have a serious consideration. we did it after world war i, where congress decided to take seriously this issue. and now we are not doing that. and we have some bipartisan issues. it's unfortunate that joe biden is not willing to have a discussion on fraudulent overbilling of large monopolies, which president biden and president trump supported. and bipartisan think tanks

cnn's phil mattingly at the white house for us, manu speaker mccarthy. just remind everyone needs 218 votes to get the bill passed. he has a slim majority. he's not going to get any democratic support. does he have the numbers? in his own party to get this passed well, kevin mccarthy is insisting that he will have the numbers but the moment he does not because the number of the members simply are not decided. yet they are still reviewing the details is 320 page bill released just yesterday, something that has been the product of negotiations internally among republicans for the past several weeks that would raise the national debt ceiling by $1.5. trillion of debt ceiling already at 31.4 trillion, including in that a range of conservative policy priorities and cuts across the board and domestic programs, including, including a adding a plan to block president biden's loan forgiveness program initiative that rescinding new funding for the internal revenue service was part of the democrats inflation reduction act that was enacted last congress would also b

manus: this man is very exacting.d him out of a bank of america conference and i said, what do you want to send to the market? he said, you are the most overpaid the reset. he said bring me a my gado, and i did. today is the day for the irish and there is a message. it is a long and the road. tom: i have heard this before. now saving the swiss banking system, my answer is, a guy like keller moves way faster than the published timeline. what do you expect in the next six months? manus: let's put a few guardrails up. information is key. then you are going to ask yourself quick the because he is the man that downsized the investment bank and his timeline -- i agree with you. they must understand the risks that they take. we are well on our way. tom: they have been through this 30 years ago. the swiss banking core stole the ubs name and remodeled the swiss taking core. what are they going to do with two cultures again? menace: it would be presumptive of me to say, raised the bar. this is about a culture, which they built

we met her in berlin. sly me intestine. devastating tornadoes or a good old blood bath. manus aksoy, in high demand in hollywood. she's a bro digitally creating all things gross, but she also doesn't mind getting her hands dirty effect. barrett is re, craig breathed, is dying the real birth elements and building a bridge between the fantasy world and the real life. i really liked her, do lied and gore the blocked blushes, the dripping of the ballade. the ballade coming out of blue and the stiff too many options and i love it. for the american horror story i design own was 50 even more a blot element that looking dufresne and looked awesome. manus ok. so initially studied industrial design, but in 2015 she moved from turkey to california to study visual effects and animation. and these days, she is a successful digital set designer. i'm not a horror movie fan. i watch horror movies only with my friends. what i like about doing though, harder movie elements. i can get the footage. there is no sound. and then i actually get to have control of it. it doesn't scare me at all because i'm d

all right, manu. i'm going to go to christine. real quick.ou know, you heard manu talked there about rattling wall street. that is where mccarthy is. what is his goal here talking to wall street or from wall street instead of at congress. trying to say we have a we have a plan here after really right weeks now that the white house democrats have been saying, show us the plan. what's the republican plan here? the white house has been saying, we want to just raise the debt ceiling cleanly here because it's just too dangerous to risk unsettling the rest of the world by the united states playing brinkmanship with its full faith and credit. look we raised the debt ceiling. december 2021 congress did, we probably can get until this summer, but the deadline has already passed. i mean, the debt ceiling has been hit, and now the treasury art mint is moving the money around quite literally moving the money around accounts so that we can keep the bills paid until this gets settled, so the deadline is behind us. there's not even a countdown clock here. i

manus: you are bang on the money.hey have deep pockets where the losses that may come from winding down the investment bank, that is where the real pain trade comes for the trifecta of sergio ermotti, colm kelleher and -- the speculation at the moment is that it is still an unknown quantity that might not burn through all of it. con is on the road and he has got to convince not just capital and assets to remain within the bank but you need to convince human capital to remain. the long-term incentive programs are on the floor. you need to get to the rainmakers who can turn the keys on these assets to stay. that is the real issue. for now, 60 billion going out the door is not anywhere as dramatic as some of the market had speculated. the city had a number in per 100 billion but overall it's not a good picture. 9% of the assets while the door in the first quarter and we are far from done with this. tom: s the world we live in where 60 billion in outflows is not as bad as it could have been. manus cranny on the ground in

let's go to manu raji. the speaker told you that you would be the first call he made once he knew he had the votes. has the phone rang just yet? >> i'm still waiting by the phone. nothing yes, but at the moment the speaker is in his office. of course, he has a mass challenge given the conference. he cannot lose more than four republican votes. already there are several members who are raising concerns they may not vote for it or simply not saying one way or another. he just met with matt gaetz, who had been a no. they had made in changes over hod howed medicaid work programs would can be kim burch et, told me earlier he's a no. he left mccarrel's office also saying no. ken buck, a colorado republican, not saying which way he'll come down, says he is still review the plan. mccarthy's allies are try to make a case to the conference, they need to pass the bill now in order to have an argue going forward that it's time for the white house to come to the table to avoid a daylight. default. this is what comes nex

over to capitol hill with manu raju, and this is a major moment for kevin mccarthy, and he is vowing a vote this week and the republican caucus is going to send the budget over to the senate. >> yeah, and he does believe that he is going to eventually get the votes to do it this week, but at the moment, it is unclear if they have 218 votes yet, because behind the scenes over the last several day, the house republican team led by the whips have been reaching out to all corners of the house republican conference to get them in line, and to get 218 votes to pass the house, and that means that kevin mccarthy cannot afford the lose more than four republican votes, and if he does that, this is not going to pass, because the democrats are going to oppose the measure in lock step, and agree with the white house position to say that the debt limit will be increased without any conditions attach and that is including the spending cuts across the board, and new work requirements on the social safety net programs and medicaid and key republican priorities and pulling back the funding for the irs

manu about the current environment. manu raju jump, scooping grateful for your time on this important story. we'll be right back. the day y you get your clr choice. dental implants changngs your struggle with missing teeth forever changes how you eat, how you feel and how you enjoy life . it changes your smile and now others smile at you. clear choice network doctors have changed over 100,000 lives with dental implants, and they can change yours too. because a clear choice day changes every day. schedule a free consultation. i'm lisa and i'm a family medicine physician. and i'm 51 years old. d thanks to balance of nature, i feel great. being a family medicine doctor is the most fulfilling career in the world. never, ever bored. i help people, but it's also incredibly stressful. my approach to stress is to exercise and i exercise hard with balance of nature. recover about twice as fast and vegetables are so important to keeping healthy and we try to vary things up. but there's only so many things you can actually purchas

cnn correspondent manu raju is working the story for you.orter: the house republican leadership is confident they will have the votes when it comes time to put the bill on the floor and they expect that vote to happen as soon as wednesday. now if the timing slips beyond wednesday, that could mean that kevin mccarthy has a problem but at the moment they believe they are able to mollify the concerns within the conference. but kevin mccarthy has very little margin for error. and the 220 republican members, he could afford to lose four votes because all democrats are expected to vote against this package which would raise the national debt limit and a slew of spending cuts something that the white house and democrats largely oppose and say they will not support. but kevin mccarthy has made clear that the effort to work the phones behind the scenes wil will be enough to win over hi conference. >> he needs to show leadership and come to the negotiating table and instead of put us into default. >> so the goal of mccarthy is to get this bill out of

our chief congressional correspondent manu raju is joining us from capitol hill. manu, give us the final numbers and what all of this means going forward, clearly very significant news. >> reporter: yeah, and a lot of work behind the scenes really for the past couple of months. kevin mccarthy trying to put together a coalition within his own conference to get the bill through. getting various factions on board in his narrowly divided conference and pushing this through the house on the narrowest of margins. passed on a vote of 217 to 215. there were four republicans that voted against this plan. that is all he could afford to lose. if he lost one more, this bill would have collapsed on the house floor. but he was able to win most of his members. other than these four. that is andy bigs of arizona and other conservatives of tennessee, matt gaetz of florida and ken buck of colorado. but now this bill has passed, you heard kevin mccarthy right there. they are going to make the argument going forward that the house is the only chamber to have passed a bill that would

manu on capitol hill? another official yet from congressman jim jordan's office. but jordan's is still planning to press ahead with their efforts to probe alvin brags investigation into donald trump, as well as to target decisions that brag himself has made as a prosecutor in manhattan on monday, they plan to have a field hearing in manhattan to spotlight with republicans say is braggs, in their view, lacks of prosecutorial discretion manhattan. they are making clear that they wanted to argue that brags decision to go ahead and press ahead with charges for donald trump was a political one, in their view and at the expense of other, more serious action, so they are using the power of their majority to essentially discredit alvin bragg, and they have made no secret of their desire to potentially to push ahead with legislation legislation that, in their view, would prevent prosecutors. local prosecutors from the attention charging a presidential candidate and prevent them from doing that in the future. and no real language has been drafted on that yet, but that is th

just once cnn's manu raju, he's at capitol hill. so, manu, we know the white house. they're refusing to negotiate on this. they feel they shouldn't have to negotiate with the nation's credit kind of being held over their heads here, but we also know some republicans are on board for this plan. so where does it stand? is it dead on arrival? well it's certainly a dead on arrival in the united states senate and with the white house, but the focus right now is in the house itself. that's where kevin mccarthy is moving behind the scenes trying to lock down enough support and he has little margin for error. 218 votes is what he needs to get this out of the house next week meeting he cannot lose more than four republican votes on this plan, which has been negotiated behind the scenes for months was revealed yesterday would raise the national debt limit by $1.5 trillion or by next march. whatever comes first and also through the range of spending costs and also republican priorities, including blocking biden student loan forgiveness plan. that's one element of this proposal,

manu raju is up on capitol hill for us, manu walk us through this lawsuit and how congressman jordan's now responding. alvin bragg, the manhattan district attorney, filing this lawsuit in federal district court, seeking to prevent jim jordans investigation into brag from going forward, of course, brag, brought forward the case against donald trump that led trump to become the first former president to be indicted and criminal charges stemming from that hush money investigation involving the former dull film actress stormy daniels and accusation that he falsified business records are trying to help his political career in 2016. what bragg is alleging in this lawsuit is that jordan, in his words is trying using a transparent campaign to intimidate and pack him and issue a subpoena that jordan's issued last week for a former district attorney in his office . mark pomerantz and bite brag is trying to block that subpoena blocked the efforts to get primaries to come, testify and for those documents that jordan has demanded. they say this in this lawsuit, congress lacks any valid legislative

cnn's manu raju his life for us on capitol hill, manu. likely is it that other republicans are going to go along with us? very unlikely, jake. in fact, i even speaking with top republicans all afternoon, and they are making clear that they will not support the democratic effort to replace diane feinstein from the senate judiciary committee, essentially giving republicans veto power over diane judicial nominees who may move along party lines because that one absence fine dining fans hands absence ensures that they can bottle up any committee judicial nominee in committee if they do not give consent to advance any of president biden's judicial nominees to the senate floor. earlier today, john cornyn, the senior republican and member of mitch mcconnell's leadership team, made clear he does not believe republicans should cooperate. this is it turns out unprecedented over the years senators from both sides as i indicated a moment ago have needed time away due to various health issues. never not once have. we allowed temporary substitutes on co

manus: we have seen in this cycle that the rba has led as has new zealand central-bank. will this be the same thing? lisa cook talking about a disinflation process that had begun. manufacturing was weaker than expected. is the fed likely to follow suit? garfield: the fed faces the same conundrum. jay powell, after the last meeting where they did hike, he said they expect what is happening in the banking sector will act to slow the economy because it will spread pain. the fed got a shot across its bow from that crisis, along the lines with they want to be careful not to break the economy. they want to slow things down but not bring them crashing down. that is the point all central banks in the hiking cycles, we have the bank of canada on the sidelines, now a second bank, the rba, on the sidelines. it will be interesting to see what new zealand does tomorrow. they are expected to hike but slow the pace of hikes. what will they say about the terminal rate? what is going into its calculations? there have been worrying signs about the new zealand economy, slower growth profil

manu raju is outfront on capitol hill tonight and manu. this is really getting a lot going here on senators as they're returning to the hill from a recess. so what more are you hearing? this is a hugely significant issue because if senator feinstein is not able to return, and republicans don't agree to replace her with any democrat on the committee, the republicans essentially have veto power over dough. biden's judicial nominees, especially the ones who go along party lines of all republicans vote against anybody judicial nominee that means that there will not copy any. these nominees cannot move forward. you mentioned there are 12 of the longer she stays away, the longer that could more nominees could build up and i'm hearing more and more concerns from democrats themselves, including some house democrats today, who indicated to me that they believe feinstein should resign. yes, um . you know, she's had very long and stellar career, you know, but missing. that many votes. you know, stopping us? it stops us from moving forward with judge

cnn's manu raju molly ball of time and francesca chambers of usa today. let's start with the debt proposal is a lot for congress to do now that they're back, but this is going to be the defining moment because the debt showdown you're talking about spending cuts. you're talking about government priorities. you're talking about negotiations between the new speaker of the democratic president, so everything is going to get lumped into here. they want to raise the debt ceiling for one year, the republicans say their return spending to 2022 levels they want to rescind any unspent covid-19. relief funds. that is the framework of a republican deal. but do they have full agreement yet, and it's just leverage right? because they know obviously the democratic senate won't go along. question about it. and there are other provisions to that. actually i'm told have gone some concerns with some of the more moderate members, including imposing new work requirements on medicaid beneficiaries for people who are under 60. people have no dependence. i'm told that some cons

now i want to get to manu raju on the hill because there was actually a bit of a dueling speech going on manu, with house speaker kevin mccarthy laying out the republican debt limit bill on the house floor. yeah, that's right. he just announced the republican plans to raise the national debt limit by $1.5 trillion or as late as early as march of 2024. that's what this legislation calls for. remember if they don't raise the debt ceiling? there could be the first ever u. s default as soon as this june or it could even slip into september. but that is the real fear here than under this republican proposal they would allow for another $1.5 trillion for the debt limit was already north of $31 trillion to be increased. but pair that with a range of spending cuts. that is what mccarthy detailed on the floor among the matters dealing with the repeal of the democratic inflation reduction act that be part of this legislation as well as imposing new work requirements and medicaid beneficiaries as well as cutting domestic spending, rolling back current spending levels for domestic programs, not d

so manu, what are you hearing from? democrats who actually have been largely quiet as a result of what we learned yesterday? yeah they have. in fact, these hallways, which i have been walking up and down since last thursday, have been actually devoid of lawmakers because members of congress have been on recess since then, and will be for them this week and next week, so we have heard some reaction from members, but a lot of them have been quiet unless they have put out tweets or put out statements, some of them choosing not to weigh in at all . that includes some top democrats who have said precious little about these charges, including hakeem jeffries, the top democrat in the house as yet publicly issue a statement in the aftermath of the indictment being unsealed. he made some more muted responses when asked by a reporter about this in new york yesterday, chuck schumer, the senate majority leader, issuing this statement yesterday, saying that this will be a fair legal process. it should be a void. there should not be.

cnn chief congressional correspondent manu raju is on the hill. so manu, some lawmakers are calling trump's indictment a political scam and say that brag overstepped here. they were calling him to testify, though before these indictments were unsealed. what more are you hearing now that they have been? yeah, that's right, and we still are hearing from those same house republican members who are pressing ahead and asking for an investigation into alvin brad calling on him to testify, asking for records. yeah, this came. these requests came before the indictment, news even broke and then i even after the indictment was first leaked to the press, then they pressed forward. they call they sent letters. they had a back and forth with brag, brag, pushed back. but in the aftermath of these charges being unsealed the republican chair german of these committees say they plan to have more discussions later this week about their next steps. that's what james comer house oversight committee chairman said earlier today that he plans to have a discussion with s

president joe biden is there are threatening a veet toechlt cnn's chief congressional can't manu raju has more. >> cnn speaker kevin mccarthy was behind closed doors on tuesday trying to get his debt limit package through the house. he has very little margin for error. 222 republican votes in the house meaning he can only afford to lose no more than four republican votes. we do expect all democrats to vote against this plan as they're demanding the increase to the national debt limit without any conditions whatsoever. that's a position that is rejected steadfastly by the speaker himself. the speaker wants a range of cuts, what he is proposing, cuts across the federal government, new republican priorities including stopping joe biden's student loan forgiveness plan, adding new work requirements to the medicaid program, but he's encountering a problem. some members in his conference want changes to the bill and the republican leadership is not willing to entertain those changes yet. >> i'm a hard no. i can't get past $32 trillion in debt. >> do the math, do the numbers and come out with

manu raju on the hill to kick us off. now let's come back in the room.going to become law. you have a democrat senate and democratic president. this is to a blueprint for their speak tore sit down with the president. this vote is more than that. this is a test of kevin mccarthy's authority. can he go into a room after the drama he went through to get elected speaker and say, i'm sorry, there are things you don't like. we have to take one for the team here. >> there's two ways to look at it. either the speaker's race showed he was going to be a weak speaker or it gave him an opportunity to get to know the conference to try to work votes, try to change minds. that's what i heard from a lot of republican when is they came out of their conference meeting this morning. they were pretty upbeat and feeling they were going to get there later this afternoon. vote cans shift. but they were feeling positively. one republican told me, we have practice being united because we had 15 rounds of a speaker's race to get there. >> and we'll watch it play out. when the dem

manu raju, cnn, capitol hill. >>> well, florida gop lawmakers are changing state laws and clearing theor governor ron desantis to run for president without having to resign as governor. that provision passed friday with a sweeping election bill that made it through the statehouse and senate where republicans hold super majorities. and there is more. cnn's steve contorno reports on the efforts and what it all means. >> reporter: florida republicans are waving the way for governor desantis to run for president one bill at a time. under one measure that is moving through the state legislature, records related to governor desantis' travel would be exempt from the state's robust public records law. that bill also makes it more difficult to see who is visiting the governor at the governor mansion. another provision changes the state reporting requirements for political committees. right now those political committees have to report their fund-raising activity once a month. this bill changes it to once a quarter. it's in one of these committees that desantis has stashed $85 million for his fu

manu raja is on capitol hill right now, and they say out loud they have the vote, but what is going onehind the scenes? are they just as confident? >> there is a furious job behind the scenes to get this to be p passed tomorrow. he says he has the votes, but they are not there yet, because of the concerns of the ranks and iowa ranks to have the bill to rescind ethanol tax breaks, and four members of the delegation, and then some who are fundamentally opposed to raising the debt limit no matter what is included in the package and a range of spending cuts and priorities that they have been pushing for some time, and tim burkshet told me that he is looking at how they are pushing medicaid and the beneficiary an under the proposal, there is a requirement for 20-hour work weeks to be eligible for the medicaid benefits, but there is some conservatives like matt gaetz who are pushing for more, and if those changes are not made, they will vote no. >> an essential element to get my vote for any increase in the debt limit, and by the way, i have never voted for an increase in the debt limit is w

raja manu is on capitol hill this morning and so, does the speaker have the votes? at the moment. at the moment, he does not, but they do expect come the middle of the week when we expect this vote on the floor he will, and that is the word from a number of people close to the speaker in the last couple of days. they have been on the phone all weekend long with the members of the republican conference to get them on board. he has little margin of error. and so they need 218 to pass this bill and meaning they cannot afford more than four republican no votes, because we expect all democrats to vote against it, because in the most part, the democrats are in line with clean vote and no conditions attached. but the republicans want cuts across the board with agencies and providing new work requirements for safety net programs like med k5id and provisions like blocking president biden's student loan program, and among a slew of programs to raise the debt limit into next year, but behind the scenes, some concerns, including from some midwestern states and cutting back on t

cnn's manu raju is live on the hill with the latest.>. >> yeah. it sounds like the republican leaders will have the votes later today to pass their debt limit package and something that the democratic-led senate says is dead on arrival in that chamber and something the white house has threatened to veto and something that the republicans say will show them moving forward to raise the national debt limit for one year including a slew of spending cuts in order to win over conservatives who have been skeptical, but last night overnight changes were made in order to win over some skeptics including subsidies for ethanol. that was something the initial bill would have repealed subsidies for ethanol. that is now included in the package in order to win four iowa gop members who had planned to oppose it over this issue as well as some other midwestern republicans. also changing how new, proposed medicaid work requirements for beneficiaries to that program. there had been a push among some on the far right to make those work requirements impleme

manu raju, cnn, capitol hill. >> the u.s. a another victory in the war on terror, with the death of an i.s.i.s. leader in afghanistan. but it was not the u.s. military who killed him. cnn's oren liebermann reports from the pentagon. >> the isis-k leader who planned the attack on abbey gate in the closing days of the withdrawal and afghanistan that led to the death of 13 u.s. service members, has been killed according to the white house. the white house has not said when exactly he was killed or how. was this a specific taliban often go after this isis-k leader, or was it in general fighting between isis-k and the taliban? john kirby, the national security strategic communications coordinator said this terrorist was the mastermind of the attack, and as one of several senior level isis-k leaders that has been killed since the beginning of the year. the taliban has been trying to crack down on isis-k's after the u.s. withdrawal in afghanistan, viewing them as a rival to their power and afghanistan. general eric carrillo, u.s. ce

manu raju on the hill, thank you.reporting that florida's top doctor, surgeon general dr. joseph ladapo altered key findings in a study with covid-19. last year, floladapo personally changed a report with significant health risks to men 18 to 39. cnn's medical correspondent elizabeth cohen joins us now. so what does the cdc say about the cardiac risks associated with mrna vaccines and what did the surgeon general change? >> boris, the cdc is very clear that these events do happen, that they're rare, so this would be myocarditis after getting an mrna vaccine like moderna or pfizer. the cdc says they don't hide this, they say it's care that it happens it resolving easily -- they don't use that word -- resolves quite quickly. people do not die from this and it's rare. and your chances of getting very sick from covid are way higher than anything bad happening to you from the vaccine. so, let's take a look at what the florida surgeon general did. he deleted a sentence and said increased risk of cardiac-related deaths nor l

alix: you saw manus doubling down on the flow show. where does the flow stop?s the money flow going to? how does ubs rain it back in. what you think we will learn about that, if anything, tomorrow? viki: we start with cs today. the outflows have been quite significant but moderated. we would like to see more comforting signs come out of ubs tomorrow. of course, everyone will be watching closely. no one has a crystal ball but that will be the main question that comes out of the earnings results tomorrow. guy: in terms of owning ubs right now, are there less risky options in europe? how does this deal change it in terms of which banks in europe you want to own? maybe at some point it will turn out to be a great deal that it will take four years to get there. and what point will i know enough to make a decision that i want to own ubs over the other banks? or at this point, is it safer to be in the other banks and see what happens? viki: ubs clearly has long-term volume. the deal will create the second largest mobile bank. that is worth quite a lot. the ceo has bee

manu what is the very latest you're hearing about this?ve been months after negotiations will pass the house as soon as today. it will require 218 votes in the republican-controlled votes. 222 republican seats and that means he can only lose four republican votes because all of the democrats are expected to vote against it. they say the debt ceiling should be raise without limit the first time it can occur as soon as june. that is an approach that has been rejected by speaker mckarth they they can spend a bill with spending cuts and it's been an arduous task, but ultimately, they believe they've gotten there. that's because overnight last-minute concessions were made to appease members of the iowa delegation concerning the proposal to pull back the ethanol tax breaks. they've added that back in and members on the far right have been concerned about new work requirements and they pushed to get those proposed work requirements for medicaid to be implemented sooner. as a result, now leaders are confident they can limit defections and that doe

cnn's manu raju has the story from washington. >> reporter: house republicans earlier in the week passedaise the national debt limit by the narrowest of margins, and after four republicans voted against it they approved it. with 217 votes in the house. barely getting it through. that has not necessarily changed the dynamics here on capitol hill. because democrats in the senate, the democratic leader in the senate, the house democratic leader hakeem jeffries as well as the president of the united states all are saying they will not negotiate any sort of debt ceiling increase with house republicans, saying simply they should raise the debt limit without any conditions, without any spending cuts, because of the fact that the full faith and credit in the united states economy is on the line here and raise the debt limit without any conditions, they say. but that is a position that is strenuously opposed by the republican leaders and the republicans in the senate, including senate republican mitt romney, who's one to have known to cut deals in the past, but this time it's the white house that

manu raju is live from capitol hill. does mccarthy have the votes in even if he does get them, what happens to this proposal? >> reporter: that is really the big question because there's no answer to that yet because there is not much time to raise the national debt limit, to get a deal that could pass the republican house and the democratic senate and also get signed by the president because there are no bipartisan negotiations happening, which is why the speaker is moving forward on a bill on his own to try to get all republicans in line behind this proposal. something that has been worked on behind the scenes for months, to include a range of conservative priorities, spending cuts across the board and try to limit defections. he cannot afford more than four republican defections in the narrowly divided house. at the moment the republican leadership is confident that today they will get the votes to pass this measure. moments ago i spoke to nancy mace who is a republican from south carolina, she had signaled for some t

let's go to our chief congressional correspondent manu raju.e house passing a bill make a default less likely or more likely? >> reporter: that is still the question that is dominating these hallways in the capitol, and no one has a clear answer to that because even in the aftermath of the house republicans narrowly passing their bill after months of internal word getting the conference in line and losing just four republican votes and passing it on the narrowest of margins, democrats say that does not matter. they say simply there should be no spending cuts attached to any sort of debt limit increase, that the debt limit should be raised without any conditions whatsoever. that is a position of the white house, of senate democratic leader chuck schumer, house democratic leader hakeem jeffries. there are moderate democrats breaking ranks. one of them, jared golden of maine, telling me earlier that he believes president biden should, in fact, sit down with kevin mccarthy, negotiate the debt ceiling increase, try to come to some sort of compromise