thank you so much, maria tadeo. now all eyes are on jay powell today with traders expecting another rate hike from the central bank. 75 basis points expected. not ruling out a 100 basis point move. let's bring in dan moss. why not just go 100 basis points and be done with it? >> it would look like the fed is panicking in response to one data set and that would be the recent cpi report. powell has consistently talked about the totality of the data. it's one thing to be data-dependent. it's another thing to be led around by the news by the data. they can't be seen to just be reacting and lurching from statistical report to statistical report. what the world needs is a fed that has conviction but is not panicking. dani: part of the argument of not going 100 perhaps it makes markets price in recession even further. you get this continued yield curve inversion that gets exacerbated. to that point, does the fed need to get more hawkish? do the dots need to show a higher terminal rate this time around? >> whether they need

dani: maria tadeo from brussels.he imf has delivered a stinging rebuke of the uk's new unfunded tax cuts, calling them excessive and in need of revision. adding to criticism of a plan which sent the pound to a record low in the bond market under extreme pressure. we are joined by enda curran. how strange is this to hear the imf criticizing fiscal policy from the g10 nation? >> it's very direct, it's very blunt and unusual to be aimed at an advanced economy the size of the u.k.. the policy looks excessive on the physical side. they said it could in fact end up stoking inequality. so it was a very direct rebuttal by the imf. the first time they had clashed of course. the imf was back against u.k. policy. i plan to set out their own fiscal policy right now it's a very stinging rebuke from the imf and it is pretty unusual and it goes to show the amount of international scrutiny towards the uk's recent actions. dani: i have to wonder if part of the imf thinking is that perhaps there are consequences beyond the u.k.. we he

bloomberg's maria tadeo.ll have comprehensive coverage of the ecb rate decision and christine lagarde's news conference today at 1:15 p.m. u.k. time, stay with us for that. in the u.k., liz truss is revisiting calls to fund energy support for a windfall tax on companies. truss was grilled during prime minister's questions yesterday. she seemed to change her tune when it comes to windfall tax after the p.m. cues. what should be our take away? >> we were all scratching our heads. opposition leader cure starmer -- kier starmer went in on that saying if the windfall tax continues at its current rate the treasury could rake in tens of billions of pounds that could be used to fund policies like this. later in the day truss seemed to go back on her opposition to the windfall tax. perhaps what she meant was she would not be open to increasing it or extending it to include the power generators. it does raise a number of political issues. even some of her closest allies have warned that it was amateurish to be ruling o

dani: the advisor to the ukrainian president speaking to maria tadeo. ned by maria now. very comprehensive interview. the backdrop of ukraine's recent success. did you get any more insight on how ukraine plans to build on that success on the battlefield? maria: well, i think when you listen to him, he was very clear that the idea that ukraine -- what it needs now is weapons. those who argued ukraine is not going to be able to master nato weapons, while ukraine cannot be as advanced or as effective as the russian army. this is presented as the second-biggest army in the world. he says everyone has been proven wrong. he says at this stage, the idea there can only be talks with russia but no active conflict because that would anger vladimir putin, he says, please change course on that. you can be aggressive on vladimir putin and nothing will happen. for a lot of europeans, they still feel this is something you need to tread carefully but vladimir putin could still escalate the war in a number of ways. what it shows fundamentally is that ukraine, the way the

let's get to our europe reporter, maria tadeo. is this the russians running away or a ukrainian strategic advance? maria, if you can differentiate for us. good morning. maria: manus, the fact that the russians ran away, you can bet they did on saturday, particularly in the regions of kharkiv. the ukrainian army has been making big gains in the east of the country. very rare for the kremlin, conceding it happened, the retreat, they don't say it is a defeat they say it is a regrouping of forces. nonetheless, momentum is now shifting for the ukrainians. obviously this is a huge boost to morale. the country needed this after eight months of war. president zelenskyy says it has regained more than 2000 square kilometers of land and the operation to liberate the country will continue. the question, and this is really at, the question going forward is how does russia react to this, how does vladimir putin react to what seems like a very public defeat but also embarrassment for the russian army? remember, he had not declared full war in ukr

let's get to maria tadeo on the ground in strasburg with a guest. take it away. good morning.od morning, manus. of course, it is an important that when it comes to the energy crisis that is top of the agenda in strasburg today. in the meantime, i am very happy to say we are joined by manfred weber, whole of course is the head of the epp delegation, also a member of the cdu in germany. this is a war that has been going on for more than a month's. are the sanctions really working? manfred: the sanctions are working. we see the effect on the russian economy. vladimir putin is really closing the future for his country. we have to be prepared. the main message from strasburg today, we have a plan, commission is presenting this. generally, there is a great backing and support. maria: there are some that say that one of the reasons the sanctions have not been as effective is because the energy sector is a moneymaker for vladimir putin and that has not been touched. is that about to be changed? manfred: we have reduced dependency to rush a lot. 9% of european gas supply at the moment.

joining me is maria tadeo, a lot of condemnation at the general assembly but mainly from western leadersmaria: it is the un's general assembly, a forum that we question as journalists, do they actually help move the agenda or is it just a p.r. show? the thing about this week is we found all western leaders in the same place at the same location essentially with the same message of condemnation and unity when it comes to russia. all agreed from the united states to the u.k. and france and the head of the commission saying this will cost more lives and the warbled right on longer. you alluded to a lot of your zelenskyy, he said you cannot leave ukraine, the people have made their choice. they want to pivot away from being a satellite of russia to now the west. but the point is, what about countries like india, turkey which by the way facilitated a prisoner exchange between the two? will they help or stay on the sidelines? the reality from this general assembly meeting, we did not get clarity on that front. tom: bloomberg's maria tadeo on that western response to the escalation by russia. w

francine: thank you, maria tadeo. coming up, barclays pushes back against deficit worries.delve further into the fundamentals, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: welcome back to the open. at 45 minutes into the european trading day. cpi inflation figures coming up later. the markets are pretty much stable. the u.k. faces the prospect of a bleak winter as businesses are under soaring inflation and energy bills. bloomberg economics see the risk of a technical recession in the third quarter. joining us now to discuss this is paul polman, chairman, one young world. thank you for joining us. you are one of the first to put climate change on the forefront of not only a big company but tried to push it with efforts globally. how will the cost of living crisis impact all of this? paul: there is no question it is impacting a lot of people. we have seen the last 18 months price increases more than the previous five years. food and energy prices of the main reason for that. climate change is one of the key drivers of geopolitical tensions. the pandemic has not helped. the supply cha

joining us from brussels is maria tadeo. what is the outlook for energy minutes -- ministers? how much does the price materially help? maria: there is a lot behind-the-scenes and the meeting now started. we have heard just a few moments ago from the energy commissioner who repeated in her view, there needs to be a russian cap on guest immediately. she also said something interesting. she mentioned that countries with which we can negotiate, partners to bring down prices immediately. the issue is that that is her view and the proposal put forward by the commissioner, but this is a europe and you need everyone to agree on this. there is tension in the way we should go about this and there is no consensus for the time being for any cap whatsoever to come out of this meeting. the other interesting thing is the response to the mega package that was announced yesterday by germany. that's also creating tensions behind the scenes, some suggesting that germany is going at it alone in the opposite of the solidarity message that the european and wants to send. francine: are they acting as

francine: we are joined by maria tadeo in strasburg for us. at are we going to hear about how they will curb some of the energy issues? maria: yes, francine, and this is normally a speech that is very political, the state of the european union, but this year, it feels particularly momentous. there is a war actively happening in europe and the ukrainian first lady is here with the head of the commission. a lot will focus on the energy, but also the political message that this is. it for ukraine. i was struck by the language from the head of the commission just now who said it is not just a war on ukraine, but russia is also now waging war on our energy and values. it is very strong language, prop -- strong political signals from the commissioner. in terms of energy, it is clear that this is a two fold operation. one is about demand destruction -- disruption for peak hours, and the other will be pressure on energy regulators that do not use gas. they say it is solitary -- solidarity contribution. we will hear from the companies in. tom: we are al

francine: maria tadeo with the latest, a great conversation with the energy commissioner.elina valavina we are joined byangelina valavina -- we are joined by angelina valavina, senior director of emea corporate set fitch. we are looking at a different energy composition. what does this mean for the utility companies in all of these countries? angelina: in order to implement a comprehensive package of different measures, it takes time to develop this. what we have seen so far is the double rations -- deliberations of the introduction of the neutral tax for energy companies , and also on gas companies. we have incorporated it into our financial model. we will see energy prices and the gas prices are such high that they generate high cash flow. other general measures -- they are sold to the end consumers. people anticipate a high level of power prices, but there is another central measure and this is on the oil and gas markets. this is the benchmark for the markets. we look at the u.k. and so, in the eu, the idea was to introduce another benchmark, which may have a cap on the

joining us from brussels is maria tadeo, what is the outlook for energy ministers, how much does the price leave help? maria: when you mention price relief, that is a good point. if you look at wholesale gas prices, they hit a record at the end of august. this promise of verbal intervention from the european authorities did take some of the heat down. so prices have stabilized compared to those highs. but still this is a lot of pressure for countries across europe that continued to say we are paying too much, this is feeding into inflation and could lead to social tension, we still need more measures. you alluded to the perennial story, and just to remind everyone because this gets complicated, sometimes i get lost in the many caps the european union is flooding. you have a potential wholesale gas cap, for all gas. and the russian oil cap. there is a lot going on here. but overall in brussels, the way i was presented this was that this is another session of brainstorming, they are not expecting a lot of market moving decisions to be made. a lot will depend on the meeting by european l

let's bring in maria tadeo who is at the forza italia election headquarters in rome. what are we seeing from the election so far? maria: it is 1:00 a.m. in the morning and still early by italian standards. we are in for hours before everything stabilizes, so when you look at the projections, it is giorgia meloni. she takes us home and she is the big winner of the night. that puts the far right untracked to form the next government. she is not sugarcoating the concerns around her views, but if you look at the overall picture, it is clear that italians have decided this is the end of the mario draghi era and the return for the right. haidi: you take a look at bond markets, investors seem unprepared to fight that premium over german bunds, showing there is not much reaction at all. do we expect this to change once we get a firm result? maria: that could potentially change in the next few days, but i would say for the time being, going into an italian election, you are correct. you would expect volatility to manifest in the bond markets. you see the european central bank w

jonathan: lizzy burden and maria tadeo, thank you. futures up .7%.this is bloomberg. ♪ as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. ™ jonathon: the inflation report in america 60 minutes away. a rally in this equity market continues to build. over the last four days, higher by about 5%. yields are lower by about five basis points. let's call it 331 on a 10-year code -- 10-year. across the curve, yields are lower. in the market, once more, all that dollar strength. going softer, weaker, negative against the euro-dollar. tom: how rationalize 4200 spx? we are not a million miles away. dear member q2? we

guy: vladimir putin speaking earlier and joining us from brussels, maria tadeo. maria we are seeing the response out of washington, how is the e.u. going to respond? maria: well, more sanctions are coming and the european union repeating that vladimir putin has decided to escalate the nature of the war and revealing that they will support and defend ukraine territorial integrity. by the way the four regions that vladimir putin decided that he will annex and claim victory over, the fight is still ongoing. there is a propaganda element when it goes into this. when you looked at the ukrainians you said -- we heard about president zelenskyy there is nothing to talk about as long as e putin is the president and this could get tricky and complicated and he said that ukraine will double down in its application to enter nato. the timing is important because in our there is a press conference i the nato secretary-general allegedly on the nord stream leaks and explosions that took place but this will put him in a difficult position because there are a number of nato countri

bloomberg european close and maria tadeo has more. claimed victory to the italian election. she was looking like the winter, sounding like a learner. she said, with the votes today, the italian people have sent a clear message. they want a government of the right, led by "brothers of italy. that means she is expecting the president of the italian republic to give her the mandate to form a government and that would make her the first female prime minister the country has ever seen. this is a victory that is controversial. critics will say she is a vehicle for the far-right, and tested when it comes to the economy at a time when italy faces potentially a serious economic downturn going into the winter, and she is also untested on the foreign policy front at a time in which there were in ukraine is still ongoing. there are also real questions in terms of what relationship she will have with the likes of emmanuel macron, the french president, and what kind of relationship can she have with german chancellor scholz? she needs these relatio

maria tadeo joins us from brussels. >> thank you so much for joining us. don't want to put words in your mouth, but today is probably optimistic for your country. is it possible to finally put an end to this before the end of the year? >> -- right now -- enough -- definitely not. weapons -- we need ammunition. manpowergroup. definitely more and more -- manpower. more and more weapons as soon as possible. alix: hopefully this year we could get an end to the war. there was a theory for a long time that western escalation was a bad idea and that would only anger vladimir putin and that could only be a problem. would you say that at this stage anybody says that ukraine cannot fight back, weapons mean escalation has been proven wrong? >> we heard some positions even before that we should not provoke. look what happened. so no, won't be able to master this weapon -- you don't understand what it does -- ukrainians -- ukrainians are smart, courageous, brave. alix: president zelenskyy yesterday said the ukrainians are fighting for their land. i do want to ask you a

for more, we are joined by maria tadeo in frankfurt. so good to see you, the ecb on track for another rate hike. the question is how aggressive can they be at this point? maria: that is the only question because the european central bank has to hike rates. the single mandate is price stability close due to percent, if you look at the picture of inflation some places now more than triple that goal. the only tension going into the meeting is will it be 75 basis points or is it a 50 basis point hike? the 75 basis point camp argues there is now a window and you have to take quick action. this is about the credibility of the institution. the 50 basis points, what they say is there is no denying this is an economy facing recession and a full-blown energy crisis. we will have to wait until 2:15 frankfurt time to find out. today we're hearing frankfurt at the ecb but tomorrow there is an important energy ministers meeting in brussels. this is a story of the ramifications of it that has become a single subject now for policymakers. francine: beca

frankfurt, right outside the news conference, is maria tadeo. stioning begin with this ecb president? maria: you alluded to this, it isn't too optimistic. we are entering a winter potentially for some that looks almost apocalyptic for the european economy. this goes back to what i mentioned earlier, there is still officials in frankfurt and brussels who believe they can avoid that recession scenario, who think we have not played our cards. we can deal with the gas situation, put it cap on it. we can separate electricity to demand destruction. that will be key, and for 10%. if that happens, perhaps they are able to wing it. they talked about liquidity problems, fiscal support. a lot of this coming together could mean by a stretch, they are able to get through this winter without a recession. a lot of this will depend on something christine lagarde, to not control. the weather, is it going to be a cold winter, a mild winter? you can call this wishful thinking, you can blame investors for saying this is wishful thinking. before, there was an option

let's talk to maria tadeo in brussels. of condemnation of russell -- russia, but mainly from western leaders. >> yes, and what a week. to have all of the western leaders in the same city at the same time and the same place. we talk about whether or not the united nations serves a purpose, but it really has this week because it really has rallied this international coalition of western leaders, all of them repeating the same message of condemnation, unity, and what they believe is an escalation on the part of the russian federation that will cost more lives and make the word go on for longer. it is not just the u.s. president. very similar message from emmanuel macron, liz trust, even the head of the commission. you find my say also very quickly, overnight, a prerecorded message from the ukrainian president, not able to go to new york. he did say that the eyes of the ukrainian people, russia has now engaged in a war in ukraine, but the choice of the ukrainian people have been made. dani: we heard the threat of nuclear warfa

dani: the ukraine prime minister speaking to maria tadeo in brussels.ing up, a surprise supply cut. opec-plus agrees to remove $100,000 -- 100,000 barrels per day in october. more on that story next. this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm dani burger in london and these are the stories etc. agenda. >> i will deliver on the energy crisis, dealing with people's energy bills but also the long-term issues we have on energy supply. dani: incoming prime minister liz truss is set to earmarked 130 billion pounds to pay gas and electricity for u.k. households. opec announces a modest cut in production. plus, private warnings. russia risks deep and prolonged economic damage as the impact of sanctions spreads according to an internal report. we speak to ukraine's prime minister. another day grappling with the fallout of the energy crisis, the flow no longer moving through nord stream 1. it is positive ever so slightly when it comes to risk assets, slightly lower to unchanged after a bruising session yesterday, especially

dani: bloomberg's maria tadeo there. tom, as part of this trying to secure energy, hearing from generally they will be -- germany they will be nationalizing uniper. amidst this, a 20% rise for fortum today. tom: for the finish owner, amid this historic move by officials in berlin. they will buy the majority state from fortum. uniper, the largest gas exporter in germany looking at 1.7 euros a share to buy all of this from the finnish parent company. trying to secure those supplies heading into winter. dani: the market trying to figure out what the impact of a prolonged war will mean. joining us now is charlotte ryland at ccla investments, as well as kristine aquino from our markets team. i look at what the environment has been from the war, you have gasoline coming back down to prewar levels. does all of this change now when it is clear the war is not over and supply chains are at risk? charlotte: many were expecting to try this on, that putin would step out and say i don't want to bother anymore. even if putin had stoppe

maria tadeo joins us from brussels. through what we've learned today. >> the european commission talks about this oil cap but it setting up the foundations, of the legal foundations for this oil cap. it does seem this is something in the works and at this point is not a lot of strategy on the way it should work. we know the european commission says it will work on a new package of sanctions and also now target trade and people. they say this is in response to vladimir putin now deciding to escalate the war in ukraine. they said this was announced last week the fact he has made nuclear threats over the past week and of course the fact the referendum which they call a scandal in those occupied territories to the east does go forward at this point. the european says the response is to increase the pressure on the kremlin. guy: part of this in response to what's happening in ukraine, the expected response from russia is one we will watch out for carefully. over the last few days we are watching combo we have seen -- watchin

. >> maria tadeo with the latest results from italy.ake a look at the currency markets now because we have a strong u.s. dollar at the moment. talking about european assets, they are spacing uncertainty not only because of what is happening in italy, but the u.k. government's fiscal plan. that tilted the british pound down more. we are talking about more declines in the asian session after they had fresh seven year lows against the u.s. dollar. the european markets actually fell into a bear market on friday. we are seeing the japanese yen right now with not a lot of movement. staying with the aussie, but we are still early in the asian session. talk about the philippines because they are talking to russia right now about buying fuel, a key commodity. i spoke to the president, ferdinand marcos, jr., in new york. they have rising concerns over the war in ukraine. >> it impacts us in the same way that it impacts all the other countries. this is in fuel. it is such a basic commodity that everything follows fuel. the point that even our agri

jonathan: maria tadeo can join us now. let's get your take on all of this. ance of these headlines in the last 20 minutes? maria: look, jonathan, these are bold moods coming out from the russian federation. how did russia respond to the gains made by the ukrainian army that has been an embarrassment for the army in russia? you are now seeing potentially this referendum happening which of course, ukraine will never accept. they say this is part of our territory in ukraine, they will never accept what they think is a fake referendum but also there have been rumors now for weeks and russia that they would have to ship from special operations. remember, vladimir putin said these are professional soldiers. it would be no conscription. we move slowly because our soldiers are professionals, they do not want to hurt civilians. of course the reality is very different but it does tell you about the boots on the ground in russia and what they are risking for the russians. you never know with the reaction of the people is going to be. there is a big difference between a

jonathan: joining us now from brussels is our european correspondent maria tadeo. as we said repeatedly today, europe has work to do even if a lot of it has to stop for a while. talk about the work being done in brussels today. maria: there is a meeting which is still going on. i have been here since 8:00, and this is still going on four hours. this meeting was called a week ago when it felt the energy market in europe was about to break. the goal of the meeting is to stabilize the market, bring down prices. we know european energy ministers have been talking about a cap on russian energy gas. what i've been hearing is there is no deal, no agreement. i have a contact who told me that if i were you i would tone down the expectations. it is a long road ahead. the issue is there is an active debate if you should put a price cap on all european gas or just russian gas? overall, strip away the jargon, it shows europe as a big problem and they don't have a solution. tom: you know what the experts tell the politicians. do the economists agree that a price cap is efficaciou

he stepped to bloomberg's maria tadeo in brussels. >> we can see understanding from european leadershat we are in a war. we have absolute understanding russia is blackmailing european politicians and we have a sure and says from european politics that they will favor ukraine. ritika: the prime minister also said ukraine's allies should do what they can to help end the war quickly. in the u.k. come in coming from mr. liz truss has drafted plans to freeze energy bills. according to document seen by bloomberg, the freeze could cost as much as $150 billion over the next 18 months. liz truss is also planning a $46 billion support packages for businesses. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decis

jonathan: we should ask maria tadeo. ♪ jonathan: ♪ berg news breaking ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ every asset classes.odities done on the month, equity down on the month. we are down about .7% on the s&p. tom: we have to keep with the data check, but the correlation is tangible in september. jonathan: i tough month of august. down almost 6%, something like 5.8 percent over just four days as yields a search climb higher. the highs of the year of june 14 in the last four hours or so, yields a comeback, backing away from 350. 348 on the two-year. at the work that we have done in europe. the snapshot of the u.k. and germany. and look at the foreign exchange rate as well. sterling, these yields have moved more than 100 basis points . 286 on the u.k. 10-year. and yet it is down by more than 5%. the last month, big move higher in yields and yet still, a much weaker currency. that is true with europe, yields higher across the board. that is problematic for the central banks. i'm trying to find footing in that affects market. tom: quickly, in italy, we are not sure if it spread wide, the difference between ita

they spoke to maria tadeo this morning. good friend of ours. who is next to blank?n: i think everyone is seen as tightening substantially in terms of the g10 world, this year at least. the blinking will probably start in 2023 when the u.s. fed cycle essentially comes to an end. at that time you presume the global economy will be in worse shape, most economies will be that much more in a serious downturn. at that point, there will be a challenge where growth is weak, and inflation is so much higher than is desired. at that point, policy will get into a much more tangled, confused state. tom: alan, thank you. jonathan: great to catch up with you as always. tk, you say it so often. obe. tom: overcome by events, margaret thatcher's favorite phrase. there will be massive obe's here. i will go back to what i heard at jackson hole. the beautiful veranda outside of the bar that jon and i stumbled on. we were over listening three fed presidents. the bar conversation was no different than the serious visible conversation today. they are making it up as they go after this mass