what will mario draghi unveil at today's meeting? the ecb is set to announce a plan to buy 50 billion euros of bonds per month when it meets later today. the proposal sent shares in both europe and the u.s. higher. according to the newspaper, the central bank bond buying will last for at least one year. however other reports suggest the program won't end until late 2016. the ecb has declined to comment on the speculation but we're seeing stocks move higher on that report. now the canadian dollar is hovering near a six year low after the bank of canada became the latest central bank to surprise markets with a rate cut. they lowered the rate by a quarter of a point in response to the sharp drop in the price of oil. they suffered the biggest one day drop since november of 2011. i'll send it back to you julia. i know you're joined by a guest that can talk more about this move in currency given the decline in oil prices. >> absolutely. i'm joined by ron mott. i want to come back to the canadian economy and talk to you about hedge funds gi

as mario draghi announced this stimulus. that stimulus, they are going to be buying sovereign debt. you have an automatic buyer, a guaranteed buyer. now we are going to have the same situation in europe. >>♪ >> we are back with lee cooperman. i am going to get to the point. you see it as fair valuation. that means there is some right picking here in the market. we had sam on yesterday who said his big bet was rich picking and some good companies. >> we came into 2014 thinking what was going on in the middle east we got hit. >> did you fall? >> we reduced modestly. a lot of the smart people like sam will be looking for credit. going back to august of last year, about 17% of the high yield index are credits. they have collapsed with the price of oil. there is some interesting paper being acquired by --. you will get a spin out company. we are creating it for near zero. we continue to buy that one. >> if you are a betting man, and i know you are, do you think oil will go up this year? >> i do not think anyone knows where oil is

mario draghi hanging over. >>. as in frankfurt. may not be the best solution. >> a qe program that focuses on buying non market, sovereign paper, does not address the problem. >> earlier this morning, i moderated a panel of ces, policymakers and former u.s. treasury boss larry summers said he supported qe. that mario draghi should aim big. >> i'm for european qe. the risks of doing too little exceed the risks of doing too much. deflation and secular stagnation are the macro economic threat of our time. >> he was on good form. >>i asked about the swiss national bank but did not get much of a response from any of them. >> very much focused on the ecb. jonathan ferro is looking forward to this. he joins us. you've been talking to people. >> let me give you some insight into discussion. i do not necessarily subscribe to it. the 50 billion that has been leaked is that pure sovereign debt or including the tltro's, if that's it, it is going to be disappointment. when the u.s. started treasury yields at 4% in 2009 50 basis points on bunds,

mario draghi is going big all in. the ecb president announced a $2.3 trillion asset purchase plan, better known as qe. bigger than expected. investors have responded by selling off the euro. hans nichols was at the news conference in frankfurt, germany. you have to explain this to us. this is a massive number. we were saying what about 500 million -- billion? i'm having a -- like the movie with dr. evil. and austin powers. >> here is what we know. here is what mario draghi just said in frankfurt. remarkable in so many levels. 60 billion euros a month through december of 2016. they get you up to 1.1 trillion euros for all asset back securities. and crucially, it includes it sovereign debt. here are the limits. 25% of each issue no more than 33% of each issue r. in terms of losses and risk sharing, there are some complications -- 20% of the new assets, there will be risk sharing with them. when he was talking about the economy deflation, he was not overly optimistic. certainly was not brimming with optimism. >> economic

that press conference with mario draghi. it all kicks off at the same time. you wonder whether or not it was deliberate. the whole scheduling story around today is fascinating in itself. >> it is the first time that the ecb is meeting on the davos day. this meeting was brought forward by one week. a happy coincidence. >> let us hope it is a happy coincidence. expectations are incredibly high and people are thinking we will see something delivered today and in big form. it is a question of how much the germans have held them back. >> when you speak to the attendees here, some of them say that because there is so much enthusiasm and because the central banks have taken so much on, they are concerned it will push back reform. >> we spoke to a range of people about what their expectations are and what they see happening. what is interesting that while they agree on a terry holocene is needed, there needs to be -- they agree that monetary policy is needed, there needs to be a push for mario draghi. there needs to be a push for monetary reform as well as stimulus.

>> judgment day for mario draghi . and the european central bank's next move on stimulus could hang on their word. europe's growth will lack behind the u.s. this year. that is the latest projection from the world bank as it cuts its outlook for global expansion. >> and copper plunging again. the commodity route deepens. ♪ >> hello. welcome to "countdown." i'm mark barton. >> i'm anna edwards. >> i'm manus cranny. >> his fate lies in the european court of justice and his opinion on omt or outright monetary transaction. >> the ecb first introduced the concept in 2012. enabling purchases of sovereign debt in secondary markets. they are considering whether they convene eu law. this meaning the court will deliver its opinion. >> the court opinion is nonbinding. if it goes against omt, mario draghi might wind his options on easing in the euro zone are narrower than ever. it is a big day for the ecb president. for more, hans nichols has traveled. you are back in berlin. this opinion really is quite important for him and the f

everybody's bank bank drop the druggie, -- mario draghi mario draghi, yellen, yellen. >> you have toivity growth. you're right, we are confusing things. a lot of the flight to quality is people converging on reality. it is being driven by excessive fear, excessive risk aversion but nothing like what we saw in 2008 and 2009. focus on the real economy. focus on a china that has only slowed a little. focus on the u.s. that is growing without have a housing bubble. people should not get too whacked out. >> the virgins is all the word. -- divergence is all the word. do you have something to keep you away from the three and four standard deviation moves away? >> went into, yes, but three and four, no. -- one and two, yes, but three and four, no. if the u.s. focuses too much on growth and central-bank policies and every thing else in the rich world, then the dollar shoots up. and if the dollar shoots up a lot, then you get a breakdown in trade talks and certain sectors of the u.s. economy. to me, that is a one started -- one standard deviation move. i worry about the forecast. >> we talk ab

what will mario draghi unveil? will it be the bond buying program at this point the market is expecting but mario draghi in the past has overpromised and underdelivered. >> the question is why do we still need stimulus six years on from the crisis? why so much focus as far as central banks and their maneuvers are concerned. we'll be talking about the prospect of qe. the global disinflationary environment another crucial issue but the oil price shift we've seen over the last four to six months another crucial issue. we have a great guest line-up coming up on worldwide exchange. we'll be talking italian banks. carlo hessina. we'll be talking to the ceo of middle east, of europe and the americas for standard charters. talking about that business too. the secretary central he cries go structural. i look at asset prices and say where's the incentive. and also david harding. what we have seen from hedge funds has been a real struggle. what does that mean for the situation going forward? i did mention italy of course. let

in light of the announcements from mario draghi. the euro down by 2%.owest level against the dollar cents december 18 -- since december 18, 2003. it has fallen 6% versus the dollar permit 7% in the last 12 months against the u.s. currency. analysts forecast it will end at $1.15. that could shift after they moved by the ec be. -- ecb. revising their forecast to $1.15. still, a minority predicting the euro will fall to parody as -- parity. brown brothers harriman are some of the only analysts that agree the exchange rate will fall to that level by the end of next year. one group says the euro may achieve parity. will the forecasts change in light of what happened yesterday? time will tell. there is zero against the dollar -- bureau against the dollar. >> the election in greece is in its final stretch. the next government must decide against extending the bailout program. voters have been attracted to their opposition to the bailout well creditors have been spooked by the locations of the potential victory. the president of yemen and his government has qui

mario draghi sees new risk of deflation. china's challenges in the new year, pollution and slowing economy are just two of them. colleges ramp up their bids for your charitable giving. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." live from our world headquarters in new york, it is friday january 2015. tom keene is off for the day. time for our top headlines. >> first trading day of the year, the euro hit a 4.5 year low against the dollar. it fell to less than $1.21 after mario draghi said the bank may increase his stimulus. he says they're still a risk of deflation in the euro area. that sent italian and spanish bond yields falling. now at a record low. one of the most eloquent speakers of his time, at democrat made the case for the parties liberal wing. former new york governor mario cuomo died yesterday, he was 82. he served as three terms as governor. his speech propelled him into the national spotlight. he was considered elected presidential candidate in 1988 and again in 1992. each time, he refused to run. he bowed o

mario draghi expected to unveil a 550 billion euro qe program this week. paul gordon joins us from frankfurt. is this all but inevitable now? i have seen the polls, and it looks like expectations are high. >> they are stellar according to one economist we spoke to. you can pretty much take it there is going to be some form of qe this week. there will still be discussion between now and thursday but it looks at the moment inevitable because the market expects something like that. one of the characteristics attributed to mario draghi rightly or wrongly is that he is aware that disappointing the markets when the economy is as fragile as it is is very dangerous. we are looking at something like 550 billion euros. >> let's say we get 550 thursday. i guess the bigger one could be the nuance between the headline. i think the major haggling seems to be around risk. what are the potential outcomes and what do they mean for the market? >> that is key. the key issue remains how do you allocate the risk how do you limit the risk. the options come down to how do you bu

you can talk about where they are going to buy it, but the mario draghi program started already withhe asset back securities program. they bought 1.8 billion euros worth of asset backed securities. at this pace, at that pace, at 1.8 william, it would take them eight years to get to the point of the trillion euros. why? because it takes five days for officials to say there you go and there you go. so can you imagine, can you imagine the adjustable issues of morality be central banks of europe monitoring what they are doing, and giving them the ability to do as they say they're going to do? so i think it is a logistical nightmare, and the euro is but 1% away from an 11-year low, and with the swish national bank -- swiss national bank, julian barnes did not make any losses after the move and they made no losses in the two days after, abandoning the cap and that they would implement measures to defend profitability, and they say new negative impact on their capital ratios, and, course, the impact is something we will be looking at in detail with caroline as we go through the rest of the

mario draghi announced this decision at about 7:45 a.m. eastern time.ress conference at 8:30 a.m. eastern time where he then answers more detailed questions on this. the formal announcement again comes tomorrow morning from frankfurt. once again, the officials asked not to be identified but the latest numbers we are getting here is 50 billion euros a month of quantitative easing that is sovereign bond buying a month through 2016 that would not begin until march, betty. >> thank you so much. we will see if that holds through tomorrow. olivia sterns joining us now who of course has been following a lot on the european central bank. she used to be based in london. olivia, we just talked to larry summers who said look, it is necessary, there is deflationary risk in the eurozone, it is necessary for the ecb to come out with quantitative easing. the question is how much and how long. >> everybody is worried that europe is rapidly going to become japan, everybody is worried that the european economy is going into this sort of stagnation phase with no growth an

set today. >> good to be here. >> a little later this morning we'll get more information from mario draghipectations in the market is that we're going to see some sort of bond buying program. the number ranges up to $500 billion. >> i think draghi has consistently delivered the message. he'll do what's necessary. >> but he hasn't had to do it yet. >> and so the expectations of $50 million a month for a year or two i think in the range of what we should expect. it's interesting in the longer term objective for europe which is really about jobs and economy is going to take more than what governor draghi can do in terms of bond buying. i think a focus on the real structural issues around labor reform, bank reform and capital markets reform. because 80% of the lending to corporates in europe are still on the balance sheets of the banks. and in the u.s. it's about 20%. and that's a big difference in terms of flexibility. >> even if he was to come up with something that said $50 billion a month for the next year or so you wonder what that would do for europe's economy particularly when you're lo

mario draghi has a real tricky problem. he has issues related to being able to signal the central bank's intentions. 19 central banks, all of the points of views, all of the political constraints. i think he has no choice but to be little bit less clear. he does not know what he will be able to do. >> it seems mario draghi has been very clear. he has preempted the ecb moves by being strong vocally. the markets have believed him so far. >> read what he says carefully, lots of conditionality. if we review, we may reconsider. one of the things we may reconsider would be sovereign bonds. only a certain amount of ways to get there. whatever it takes. the strongest tool in his arsenal, given the political realities he faces is the ability to be able to scare the market down. what i'm expecting thursday is we will probably not get the huge purchase of bonds the market is looking for. that will remain dangling in the future as a possibility. we might see esf the -- we could see foreign exchange added to the mess. >> we will have pl

but the banks president mario draghi says this is dangerous.he says there is danger of deflation in the eurozone. his remedy is massive purchase of bonds. >> it maintains control over the design features of the program. the ecb will coordinate the purchases, thereby guarding the single nest of the euro systems monetary policy. >> the bank will buy 60 billion euros worth of bonds every month until september of 2016. that is more than he suggested. >> he has been preparing for this day. now he has followed through. he has shown he has prepared to take action despite the warnings and skepticism from some quarters. >> many of the governing council see it as their duty to stimulate the eurozone economy. >> what they can do is create a basis for growth. but for growth to pick up you need investment. for investment, you need confidence. and for confidence, you need structural reforms. >> it was not a unanimous decision. germany has opposed as quantitative easing because it could reduce the pressure on states to reform their economy. he agrees it would

>> did mario draghi embolden risktakers today?> you will start to see some kind of increase in risk-taking. the fact that there has not been more risk-taking in the corporate sector is surprising. if this low right -- low rate environment persists, why wouldn't that be the environment risktakers want? you have withdrawals from a lot of high yield bonds. it shows how cap located this is. -- complicated this is. >> the central bank does something like this volatility is supposed to be suppressed. it is not. >> it is the other way around. thanks to the swiss national bank -- they really induce a lot of hedge fund closures hundred of millions of dollars of losses. we don't know of the fallout from this. you have treasury yields high volatility rising to the highest level since october 15 when the world went haywire. there has been more volatility introduced by the movement of the stimulus program. which a lot of people do not understand the applications. >> tell the average investor why they should care about volatility. >> volatility

. ♪ >> a day of reckoning for mario draghi on deflation. expected to show the first decline in consumer prices in i've years at the markets brace for the next move. >> the german chancellor -- >> christmas sales, speaking live to the more chief marketing officer. >> welcome to "countdown." >> it is 7:00 here in london on wednesday january 7. caroline hyde is here to break down the numbers. >> much better than expected. not nearly as bad as had been thought. the third quarter down 1.7% and that is excluding fuel. analysts expecting a drop of 3.2% so this is ahead of expectations, good sales performance in a tough market. you have price wars of brewing promising one billion pounds of rice cuts in the last -- next five years. sainsbury itself. they say they had 29.5 million customer transactions in the days before christmas and over 400,000 product prices reduced. >> deflation likely to continue to you expect the rice is to continue -- those prices to continue? >> 57 million, go on sainsbury. >> they said people tend to trade up during christm

mario draghi is the king of signaling . he could deliver this plan and then say but we remain open to doing more. it could be a signal of what he says. >> is that what you are expecting? >> indeed. mario draghi may well go beyond this. >> thank you so much. >> let's continue to bring you news on the developing story. we are waiting for a press conference that is going to take place, maybe in the next few minutes. you are looking at live pictures. the helicopters landed. within the last 10 minutes, we have seen them taking off. it looks as if they may be taking off and leaving the area. that may be an assumption on my part. we wait for the news conference. >> we don't know. >> they all landed at the same time. you would have thought that you would have some maintaining a circuit. they all landed at the same time. they have been taking off. it looks like they are turning right and maybe leaving the area. we are waiting for the news conference to develop. let's bring you more information on what we can get from the situation.

all eyes on this news conference from mario draghi. government bonds come push if yields are already so low -- what does buying government bonds accomplished? >> it's already priced in. for central banks, it's about followthrough. all of those bond yields start rising. that will have a deal at serious effect on growth -- deleterious effect on growth. >> the ecb has been working germany so hard for the last month or so letting them know this is what's coming. it's where all their attention is focused and then this leak of the plan beforehand, not standard stuff. >> that's right. it looks like someone in europe is trying to influence the outcome. i'm not somebody who can imply what the internal mass nations are. they're trying to get information out to the market in measured steps and get to where they are going to step-by-step. >> a lot like what the fed is trying to do. how to start selling these mortgage backed securities. we don't know how to do this. we are always much better off as a central bank slowly dribbling information out. >

that is mario draghi. he is opening his mouth like this and letting bits and pieces out. let the bloke be his own man. until that happens, the ecb is just a mouthpiece of germany. i think the perception is dangerous. germany is in real problems at the moment. it's a fantastic country, but with russia so reliant if that actually starts to damage germany quite badly, which i think it might do russia needs $60 a barrel for the oil to balance their books, and if this isn't happening, you get the domino affect. i don't want to hear anymore muttering about quantitative easing. do it. >> no more muttering. >> happy new year david. >> "on the move" is next. we will be focusing on greece. the euro hits a nine-year low. but the more to come. -- plenty more to come. >> good morning. happy new year. welcome. moments away from the start of european trading. let's get straight to the morning brief. the euro slides. the single currency dropped to levels not seen since 2006. speculation increases the european central bank

so european central bank president mario draghi has decided to launch quantitative easing. he says the bank will buy government bonds and other assets from eurozone's member nations. he unveiled the plans after members discussed monetary policy for the euro. the bank plans to buy six billion dollars worth of assets every month, about $68 billion, and it includes investment grade bonds. it will start in march and continue to the end of march 2016. >> these factors should strengthen demand increase capacity utilization and support money and credit growth and thereby contribute to a return of inflation rates towards 2%. >> it is the first time ecb policy makers have gone down the road of quantitative easing. their counterparts in japan and the u.s. have taken similar steps. ecb officials want to revive the eurozone economy. they will have to decide how many government bonds to buy from which countries. they also decided to keep the ecb key interest rate at 0.05%, which is an all-time low. >>> most european leaders support draghi's decision. nhk world's tim west has more from d

normally, such a move, such a promise by mario draghi would help equities. not this first day of trading the dax dropped. that need not be the trend for 2015. at the moment, most people are expecting the dax to be higher at the end of this year than right now. >> here come the market numbers starting in bradford with the dax. i .4 of 1%. stocks fell but by half as much closing at 3139. the dow jones in new york where they are trading is down. .25 of 1%. and 12010. after a difficult 2014, i suppose the best we can hope for is cautious optimism. >> time for closer look at the german economic look for the year ahead. >> this is where the money is. they facilitate many players of the german bank industry. they're supposed to lend to companies to generate economic growth. in 2014, it could have been better. that's take a look around the city and check out the driving economic factors of the new year. >> the european central bank will set the tone in 2015. it's huge amount of stimulus have yet to spark substantial growth but the ecb will be injecting even more cas

mario draghi's massive bond buying program. some currency experts were saying the euro could trade in pairdy with the u.s. dollar. a level it's not traded at since november of 2002. we'll continue to keep an eye on the euro/dollar trade. plus the story out of saudi arabia, they call for unity and solidarity for countries as he vows to maintain the same approach as his predecessor. this news coming in after the saudi king abdullah did die and the new ruler coming in is salman. to keeping a look at that story and what to expect going forward. >> this morning has been the implications of that bond buying program. the european central bank launched a landmark quantitative easing program. out to you, you have been speaking on their response of whether it will be enough to revive the euro zone economy. what have they been telling you? >> well it's interesting. it is bigger than many expected. markets of course rallying on the back of it too while the euro took a leg down now. mario draghi revealed the ecb would buy 60 billion euros w

how difficult does it make it for mario draghi now?ke a little bit of pressure off of mario draghi. clearly the swiss had tied their currency to a currency that was depreciating pretty rapidly, the euro. i think this was an opportune time to get themselves out of a difficult situation. >> let's revisit the confidence of a few years ago. the confidence that switzerland is different. it will longer tolerate a euro exchange rate below 1.20 swiss franc. it did not work. what does it cost the government of switzerland? >> they will be tallying those numbers for quite a while. swiss foreign exchange reserves have exploded from the beginning of 2012. of particular concern is that they just reported that the reserves went up by 33 billion during the month of december alone. that is just an unsustainable pace of acceleration in their reserve accumulation. >> the money coming in. you have been out front on this. here is wy plot six years ago. wow. coming off the swiss move, do we go to a new regime of currency war that could lead to deflation an

mario draghi firing this latest shot.two at goldman sachs talking about it overnight at davos. how does that end? and what are the implications of that kind of heightened risk for equity investors? >> well so far it is a war, but it's being played look a chess match. that laid back sur reason bralcerebral attitude will disappear. someone will get the currency in place to cause pain to somebody else. >> we're already having pain in the u.s. with the stronger dollar. so many different companies. >> we have discomfort we don't have pain. when we get to pain you'll see. >> it's more than that isn't it? if the foreign exchange levels are falling for japan and europe, everything that comes out of the japan and europe is falling in value. that's massive waves of deflation that at the very least are lapping at shores of this country. you can argue the stock market will still ride through, and it's a very strong economy but we should acknowledge that's the effect of what's happening. and it's only going to get worse. those waves o

i think the board us with mario draghi.he overwhelming majority of the eurozone central bank, as anyone who looks at the window and quite honestly the data -- >> the shrinking heroes him. -- shrinking euro zone. >> exactly. separately we have more of the greek tragedy. i don't think that should have a big impact on the ecb. it should not have a big impact on european markets. if you just look at the behavior of spreads, it hasn't had a big impact. if the ecb comes out and has a credible qe program i think the markets will focus a lot less on greece. if the ecb proves again to be hamstrung and unable to function properly with more of a risk around greece -- i think one of the things from the last press conference trotsky said we are going to be a central bank we're going to focus on monetary policy. it was powerful. the other risk is going to be giving a preliminary judgment on earlier ecb bond buying. i don't think that is going to be a big issue either. another thing to watch, that druggie said very clearly last time, we c

if greece leaves, we will see mario draghi do what ever it takes to make sure the eurozone does not fall apart and the contagion is not touching bond yields, at the moment. >> you have german officials positioning themselves in greece and this is a question of the greek people. a decision not to go with the new democracy. it is staying in the eurozone or voting to exit. they are playing a dangerous game. >> they are not saying they want to leave. >> there is a decision to stay in europe or leave. >> it is trying to influence the election and, when we get the election whoever is in power in greece will be trying to negotiate low austerity within the eurozone or and that is quite clear. you cannot have that. the reality is that negotiations will take place. >> what will we see as the outcome of this? do we get the extension of the loans negotiated? those of the kinds of develops you would expect to see. >> they need the money. if they left the eurozone, it would be a disaster. they will try to negotiate. they will have austerity. it may be reduced. they have already got a long way and need

now, the euro has hit a 29-month low following comments from mario draghi. speak at germany's newspaper, draghi jurndz lines the ecb would be ready to act against low inflation earlier in the year adding quantity taken easing was still on the card. eurozone inflation is currently at 0.3%, a far cry from the 2% target. >>> the iranian deputy minister has called on saudi arabia to halt the fall in oil prices. still with us, is anthony chan from jan p morgan chase. let's talk about the oil price and its likely impact on the u.s. equity performance. you've prepared an interesting chart on this which does ug that even if in the short-term there is correlation with ek markets, it's almost always beneficial for equity markets. >> it really is, will forget. if you look at u.s. equity markets, whenever oil prices drop by more than 40%, i know there's a big department. i've looked at it since 1990 during economic expansion. as you start to see that through, you get really impressive gains in the equity market, close to 13.5% for the s&p 500 six months later. how about

but mario an draghi the big bank of bank said 2 1/2 years ago, he said i will do whatever it takes. i am ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. finally after all this time we may see this -- very likely going to see this announcement that critics will say, both sides will say, the european and euro zone and economies are in such a state that something like this is needed. >> huge amounts of money. billions have been spent here trillions, more than the u.s. >> their program was $3.7 trillion. >> and it's worked? >> still debatable, but, yes. look at the u.s. economy and the uk economy. the international monetary fund as good examples of certainly putting the financial crisis behind them. there is an argument that yes, these economic stimulus programs have certainly boosted both the uk and the u.s. is it right for europe we'll have to wait and see. >> one country that will be closely watching the qe announcement is greece. they're getting ready for an election on sunday. it's an important one, because depending on the result some say it could even trigger greece's eventua

mario draghi kind of smiling at the exchange rate.d how it stood up there at 135 40 at so long. finally, we are getting that move. i think the move in the euro downward will produce a better 2015 for the european economy than many people project right now. i think mario draghi wants to bring it down. we have heard talk and certainly, that is possible. maybe he wants it not to go quite down that far. but that is the reason for the central-bank move in switzerland . anticipation of mario draghi and the 20% decline we have artie seen in the euro. >> the swiss have always culturally held themselves to be distinct from europe. this island at the center of the european union that has nothing to do with what is around it they are not as distinct as they were. >> no, clearly, they're not hear the swiss currency has been i would say maybe the strongest in the world after japan's policy has fallen back. the swiss central bank thomas was monetary policy, it has been the lowest inflation. they have maintained their economy despite the fact that t

mario draghi.the focus now on the governing council meeting on january 22nd to see if he would unveil full blown quantitative easing. we're looking at the xetra dax basically hugging the flat line. the cac 40 the ftse mib down just about 0.11% in today's trade. >> let's look at forex and expectations of bond buying from the ecb continues to put pressure on the euro. it's been hovering around nine-year lows. a slight bounceback today. it's at 1.18 as we speak. the moves for the other currencies against the dollar has been more range bound at the start of 2015. the yen today, slightly stronger at 11 9.4. now, back to our top story. french media are reporting of a possible hostage situation and shots fired in the area where police are searching for the two suspects wanted in wednesday's attack on charlie hedbo. for the last 48 hours, authorities have been scouring a woodland. there were reports one person has been killed and the paris prosecutor's office has since denied. let's get out to stephane who

you want to see some shock and off from mario draghi.not want to see, we will do quantitative easing that it will be limited -- basically caving into the germans, that would almost be the worst of all worlds. >> thank you very much for joining us. mark gilbert joining us to talk about the war and exchange market. let's get to one of our big -- foreign exchange markets. let's get to one of our big stories, caroline hyde spoke to this ceo and asked him about emerging markets. >> we have about 60% up in the emerging markets of that is a good decision because despite what you read, the emerging markets are still growing. we think global growth is about 2.5%. we have forecast 2.9%. in this low growth environment the cost are little bit better and here you can see the 40 basis points. 11% earnings per share growth. you saw it this morning the imf lowering the world growth forecasts. europe is difficult to get growing and risks of deflation quantitative easing coming. we will have to see what that does euro growth started to pick up a little bi

in europe, stocks got a boost on mario draghi's comments. a disappointing measure of euros on manufacturing stop we will take the temperature french consumers. annual winter sales are kicking off. shoppers in the north east of country started this friday. consumption makes up a big part of the french economy and many are getting a welcome boost. >> they braved the rain for day one of the winter sales. many shops in the region have increased discounts this year. in the hosts of boosting sales and weak economy. >> until now, we usually only mark than 50% but now we are seeing items dixie or 70%. >> consumers are still weary about spending too much in an uncertain economy. >> i don't spend more than 100 euros. >> many hope that it will make up for a late start for this year's winter, something that did not stock up on items to bundle up in. >> customers were waiting. the first people to come in this morning were looking for something that they really wanted but did not necessarily need. >> these are regulated by the government. they kicked off

stories -- the euro has had a 4.5 low against the dollar today as it weaken to less than $1.21 after mario draghi hinted that large-scale quantitative easing may be the way because of the risk of deflation. bond yields are falling in italy and spain as a result. former new york governor mario cuomo died yesterday of heart failure. he was 82 years old. he was elected governor three times and he had a memorable speech at the 1984 democratic and that this convention and many thought of him and higher office. >> many believe the wagon train will not make it to the frontier unless some of the old, some of the young, some of the week are left behind by the side of the trail. >> from that, he was considered a likely presidential candidate twice but decided against running. once he declined a plane took him to new hampshire to take into the new hampshire primary. bad weather is slowing down the search for wreckage embodies in the air asia crash. search crews in the java sea are using sonar and ping locators to find the blackbox and flight recorders and 30 bodies have been found so far. for the second yea

investors meantime likely saying greats city because mario draghi announced an ambitious bond-buying program, and that sent the u.s. dollar soaring against the euro, driving the euro down to its lowest level in three years against the greenback. u.s. stocks follow that upward momentum right now, look at the dow up 260 points or 1.5%. the s&p, the nasdaq, the russell all following suit with gains in excess of 1.5%. the s&p just sly of a 1.5 -- just shy of a 1.5% gain right now. volume at the new york stock exchange is 20% above average right now which suggests investors are waiting to see how much daggy was willing to spend -- draghi was willing to spend. liz claman is in davos and will have much more on in this just a moment. the other big story we're following is the controversy over deflated new england patriot balls. today bill belichick addressed the media and denied knowledge about these underinflated balls. in just a moment, we will hear from new england quarterback tom brady himself. so let's get things started, let's start the "countdown." ♪ ♪ >> a special edition of "countdo

mario draghi might have to write a letter. >> they looked through the oil price and probably lower hurryely that sterling increasingly the rate hike is price out. luke johnson will join us and talking about the uk's economy and his perspective. i wonder if they economic story is what worries him are coming up in the form of the general election. there appears to be no good outcome. we would and up within eu referendum or a labor government which could attack this is or probably the worst-case scenario which is a minority government which is unstable. no particularly good outcome and we would talk about that. then, we will talk about greece for you have been talking about all morning. we have the interview with the greek foreign minister and will continue that conversation with possibly his successor. he is an economic adviser and naming -- and named to be the next economic adviser. and wide renzi may have to pull. and outside we will be talking to -- >> and the big number is crude wti below 45. >> i think everybody went through the numbers carefully. good or bad? >> the word economist us

mario draghi expected to pull the trigger which will weaken the euro lead to more money pouring into the swiss franc. that and it's also been surging lately because of the mass exodus from the russian ruble. all of that would have made it more expensive and difficult for the swiss national bank to keep this peg policy in play. so it said that's it enough without any warning, and that sent the currency up an unprecedented move 30%. it's called down here a little bit, down about 16%. that in itself is absolutely crazy and the mere shock of this announcement massive volatility not just for the swiss franc but spillover effects the swiss equity market, for instance, plunging. it could cause damage for the economy there. exporters are a big chunk of that economy. not to mention the effects it's having here like a stronger u.s. dollar and, guys more market volatility. it's already the name of the game for 2015 but now if we have central banks all of a sudden surprise us in ways they never before the questions is what is that going to do to the currency market and the ripple effects everywh

a little relief for mario draghi. the european court of justice has given a favorable opinion on outright monetary transactions, seen as a precursor to the qe plan that many people believe draghi will announce next week. >> the court has said the omt plan is legal in principle. what can you tell us about this opinion? it seems like it is a green light. >> in principle, there's nothing behind me in announcing quantitative easing. it seems like the last potential major road brock -- roadblock has been lifted. the european court of justice said it may be legal. the outright monetary transaction, which you can read as code for ecb -- when you look at what is going to happen with the market and mario draghi in berlin today told the newspaper that the ecb stands ready to buy sovereign bonds, the question becomes, is this 500 billion euros a ceiling? to what extent does the market hope that it is a floor when it may be a ceiling? and what restrictions might we have on quantitative easing? we will be reading through this more

and unless you are in monitor your oh -- mario draghi said -- mario draghi's head, you are just guessingonathan ferro. [laughter] >> mario draghi is thinking, get him out of my head. [laughter] we have asked our twitter followers. a lot of people are saying that the euro is going to go lower. >> it is a dollar story at the moment. >> things are going to get more and more expensive at home. i hate to say it. it could get to parity. that is going to be a painful trip. >> it means more relatives, more in-laws. more in-laws visiting. you have to think on that glass half-full side. [laughter] >> more in-laws. [laughter] that is the take away for 2015. that is it for "the pulse." keep it right here on bloomberg tv. >> "surveillance" is up next. with tom keene and the team. we will see you tomorrow. >> you can tweet us in the meantime. ♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> oil descends as europe descends into deflation. fragile geopolitics. republicans take over the senate. is there a moderate to be found? inequality is so todd 14 and-surprise -- 2014 and -- surprise -- so 2015. right now,

what does this do to mario draghi? how does the plunge in the price of oil affect mario draghi? >> you raise a good point. i am shocked by the amount of consensus. matched by the amount of uncertainty. the amount of division there is over what lower oil price should meet for the global economy. there is a huge debate on what it means for the euro and whether the european central bank should react. do i want higher oil prices? do i want higher food prices? no, i don't. they have a tough one to actually tread. >> as we speak, west texas intermediate, this is the john taft collapse, west texas intermediate coming right down born -- going to break to new lows. >> we've been talking about deflation in the eurozone, but you also have mark carney having to make that long walk to 10 down the street with literally a letter in his hand to apologize for getting it wrong. >> are two things going on. is it his fault? you're seeing lower prices feeding into a lower inflation price. should a central bank have to react to that? should you look at a deflation target of 2%? and a lot of people on

we have to ask what this means for tomorrow the ecb, mario draghi. how much weight can we put on that? you have seen a major central-bank capitulate. >> what would be the question you would ask him? you have one question, you meet him in the corridor you got your google glasses on. >> two -- >> just one. >> one would be communication. why thursday? why not friday after the close? do we go back to 2011 and the lessons of the swiss national bank and the accusations that made these things leak? maybe they made a decision and felt like they had to get that out the door. i think communication has got to be the number one question. >> i would ask him, how do you feel? >> to be here? >> it must take a toll on a personal level. people say they should have timed it differently, they should have done something different. how is he living? >> i think all these are great questions. hopefully we will get an opportunity to ask. he is expected to show up later. nobody can get here because, have you seen the prices? >> there's billionaires here and there's journalis

hopes that mario draghi will pull the trigger on quantitative easing. morgan stanley earnings take center stage in the u.s. after the holiday weekend with investors honing in on fixed income and the banks commodities business and president obama heads to capitol hill for the state of the union address but republicans are already fighting back at a plan for tax reformful we're going to discuss that with politico's ben white. >> you're watching worldwide exchange bringing you business news from around the globe. >> all right we got the german survey. sentiment index reached the highest rating since february 2014. also reporting that january current conditions index came in at 22.4 points versus 10 in december. now what about economic conditions? well, economic conditions came in at 48.4 versus 34.9 which was a number we saw in november. so clearly better than expected and you can already see the euro strengthening against the u.s. dollar at 11606. the economic survey compiling 350 financial experts. the indicator reflects the difference between the share

what happens if mario draghi disappoints? >> it won't be good. mario draghi is an extraordinary guy.

president mario draghi to act soon. but not everyone is sounding the alarm. >> i will remind you the euro originally traded at $1.18 when it was introduced. i don't see any dangers yet. >> global uncertainties could push the common currency even further down. some analysts say dollar-europe air parity would not be such a bad thing. >> some political leaders including chancellor angela merkel are saying a greek exit from the eurozone would not be such a bad thing either. >> that is a dramatic turn in tone and message. there's genuine fear across the eurozone that greek voters will elect a new government this month that could say no more reforms, no more austerity. >> that would not go down well with brussels potentially leading athens to become the first capital to break with the euro. >> who is afraid of a greek exit? that is the message from german chancellor angela merkel and finance minister -- and the finance minister. governor officials say the eurozone is better equipped to cope in case greece returns to the drama

>> mario draghi is not a hero and iin davos, but he is expected to enact a fresh round of monetary stimulusntitative easing. that announcement could come soon over the next half an hour. we are expecting the interest rate decision by about a quarter to 2:00 paris time, and about 45 minutes afterwards there were be a press conference with mario draghi. he is expected to enact this program of monetary stimulus to the tune of 50 billion euros a month for the next year at least. the idea being to try to kickstart the european economy and make a difference to those european countries that are struggling to create growth. it is not a policy that is universally supported, but one of the proponents is here in da vos, they finished prime and it's her. he says he will welcome any decision from the ecb with a smile. the ecb is likely to drive down the value of the euro. let's take a listen. >> it will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the economy because of the fact that it will put more liquidity on the market. the fact remains that interest rates at a record low is in the right direction with re

is your view that mario draghi and the bank have been in a show us enough? >> it will be a key element of a general strategy. it will push away any risk of deflation and provide an injection of confidence to the markets and boost liquidity with companies and households. this is one element of the strategy. we need to do more and use all of the other tools at our disposable. >> it is not just about a shortage of cheap money. some members are seen as weak and bloated. how big of a contribution to the eurozone recovery, which matters to us, how big of a contribution do you think to that recovery this program of qe will make? >> the central bank can help but it is not enough. we've had helped in the past, but we accompanied that with clear economic plans. we have action from the central bank. we need to see the countries of the continent taking action to make their economy. >> in bit of an uphill struggle for the eurozone. when it first started, a bit like a powerful antibiotic design. today it is a bit like an addictive painkiller. it is nice to be on, it does