undoubtedly the news of "on the move" has been mario draghi's rather dovish view. ed. ♪ president draghi tells european parliament that the risk to the economy are visible. the euro weakens against the dollar. rolls-royce plunges. shares sink 15%. after the engine maker has a profit warning on the climbing demand for business jet engines. and earnings beat in a buyback. lehman's shares rise -- as it plans a $3 billion buyback. siemens shares rise as the

hans nichols there on the latest mario draghi watch. we will bring you mario draghi? live at draghi's speech 10:30. -- at 8:00 a.m. london time. >> the end line growth is healthy. obviously, we're going into a period of uncertainty in the markets. going to have rates going up in the u.s. and potentially coming down further in europe. from here, you have got to be more cautious. we have come a long way in recent years. from here, we will be more cautious. is from goldman sachs about our potential bash about this potential policy divergence. brandon browner joins us now. extra coming in. it seems that for the first time since 1994, we are talking about the potential for central-bank policy. all thrown into stark relief, given december is itself a reason for concern. relative toake extent of divergence. off invery little take federal reserve policy in december. 25 basis points. in a way, more important than that is what we are seeing from thepe, where we are seeing most likely continuation of the ecb's monetary experimentation. that is in a time when there isn't deflation

president mario draghi giving the keynote address. keynote address, let's bring those markets up for you. euro dollar a weaker euro off the back o those comments. draghi said the e.c.b. will do what it must to raise inflation quickly. euro/dollar drops below 10eu7b07. down .4% this morning. bond markets not reacting the way that they should be if you believe inflation is going to be successful. that is an all time low. minus 0.3%. yields unchanged this morning. a lot to get through. we have five minutes to do it. let's bring in richard jones and manus cranny. first of all, the top line. we have to get inflation back on target as quickly as possible. a repeat almost word for word of what he said at the exact same event 12 months ago. manus, to you first. did it signal a lot more is going to come in december? manus: the global economy recovery is the weakest since 2011. the european recovery is modest. he said the weakest rebound since 1998 is goings to take 31 quarters to take that peak. -- hit that peak. the german bond market and we

them orearing pessimistic comments coming from mario draghi, it seems stimulus is on. at does that look like to you as an investor? mario: he will be at the new york economics club in a couple of weeks. the playbook is fairly simple. flood the system, help financial assets, or the currency and stimulate the economy if you looked at the statements from the fed recently, the notion of the currency impact, the oil impact, the inflation in the united states starts unwinding itself in the second half of 2016. when does the market discount that? is trying to he lower the currency. we are at one and six. do you get a pair is see with what the fed's pentateuch and ecb does what it is meant to do. mario: they will do it they want . from 138 on the euro to 106, the incremental impact incrementally to go down 10% further. a year after it started, around .002, was around 87 currency has an impact on earnings. if you are a company in europe that sources its goods in local currency and sells and dollars, those are bargains. mark: give us some bargains. in the european markets we are

mario draghi says the ecb will "do what it must."here have we heard that before echo "do what it must to raise inflation quickly." francine: downside risks have increased. his remarks are the ones we heard from governing council members. manus: hans nichols is in frankfurt. we just finished hearing that speech. echoing what he heard -- what he said a year ago. this time it is about inflation. hans: he is concerned about inflation not rising high enough. the risks are manifest. the most important thing we heard was him talking about what he may do on deposit rates, signaling their level they can empower an increase the bang for the buck that you can get for asset purchases. a pretty strong hint that you are going to get something on the deposit rate. confidence." ius circled it because i was looking for evidence on what he could be confident. he didn't give much confidence -- he didn't give much reason for any confidence. we are going to have the slowest global growth this year since 2009. he talked about the length of recovery for th

investors will be looking out for more clues as to when the ecb will expand stimulus and president mario draghi appears in the parliament later. speeding at the bank of england yesterday, he gave little away. he did say european markets need governments to operate freely. went draghi: the more we borders to be open -- wants orders to be open, the more we recognize the potential of integrated market to produce financial contagion, spillovers, and in some cases financial instability, the more we need to have global -- or regional institutions regulate those markets. for markets to be truly free, therefore they need governance. guy: later on we will go live to the european parliament. that will be from 8:30. mario draghi will be there this morning. he will be taking questions on the ecb monetary policy. anna: we take a moment to reflect on the past. mainly, may of 1994. janet yellen was teaching at a university and mario draghi was a civil servant. the ecb and the euro did not exist. europe's benchmark rate was set by germany. that month, they set it at 3.5%. this was post-unification. what we go

a lot might depend on how much mario draghi surprises the market.w what is penciled in is rate.t in the deposit does mario draghi need to do more to send the euro to parity against the dollar in 2015. that is the big question. julie: obviously, on enthusiasm can't comesiasm i close to mark barton on my best day. that, i can see. that is pretty topical on a black friday. erik: that is why, mark, i'm going to award the prize to julie hyman for being so topical. julie: i appreciated. i would like to thank -- what and to make it clear this means. that retailers have to spend more trying to capture shoppers online and making every square footage of retail space less profitable. that is why amazon is winning. mark, i am impressed. mark: i will be back next week. i will be back. tourist.ie is just a you will get another bite at the apple. here is a peek at how the markets finished. a little bit lower than how they finished. the european stocks rose for the second consecutive week. what i'm watching on monday, the the 21 primary change in paris. climate.n.

let's stick with mario draghi. he has surprised the market with the strongest hint yet that the central bank could expand it's asset purchase program at its december meeting. >> we will closely monitor the risk to price stability and assess the strength and per sis answer the of the factor that is lowering the inflation to level bess low but close to 2%. we will reexamine the monetary policy accommodation. if we were to conclude that our price stability objective is risk, we would act by using all the instruments available within our mandate to ensure that an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation is maintained. consistent with our forward guidance the asset purchase program is considered to be a particularly powerful and flexible instrument. in fact, we have always said that our purchases would run beyond end september 2016 in case we do not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium term. other instru

matt: we expect a lot from mario draghi and we may be expecting too much from mario draghi. in any

mark: not even mario draghi could stop the biggest drop in equities in six weeks. the european close starts right now. betty: we are going to take you from new york to london to berlin in the next half hour. we are going global as we do here. mark kicks things off. mark: you better believe it. spoke, and the biggest decline in six weeks. since october 22 when he first said he would press the stimulus in december, the stoxx 600 has risen by 300%. we are playing a waiting game until december the third. ands not all about draghi yellen, it is about earnings as well. there is one company that has been striding the market. betty: it is a very high flyer, or a very speedy one, rolls-royce luxury stock. how do you account for the big flop? 20%, rolls-royce holdings has lost 1/5 of its value today. excel the most since 2000. since 2000.he most the dividends are up for review and the chief executive said, since i became ceo i have been covered within the organization that runs deeper than what was apparent to me. he sees no quick fix and says there will not be a recovery un

mario draghi hints central bank could expand qe. apple and paypal go head to head as the iphone maker is in talks to develop a new mobile payment service and walmart unveils that it will offer it's black friday discounts online and in stores for the first time ever. >> hi, everybody. well, the u.k. brewer sab miller posted a jump in sales during the second quarter. those numbers coming just a day after rival ab inbev launched a formal $100 billion bid for the firm. the deal is still expected to face major regulatory hurdles, though. we have been looking at an impressive set of numbers from siemens. they announced a 3 billion euro share buy back program after beating forecast with 4th quarter numbers. they also hiked the full year dividend. the ceo of the company spoke first to cnbc after the release of the numbers and he warned that china could weigh on numbers over the next couple of quarters. >> we do see that the investment output in china has been down. there's a big opportunity in china still although the new normal may be some

a big week for mario draghi and janet yellen. the european close. ♪ erik: we are moments away from the european close. mark barton is joining me for the next half-hour. the unitedaffing in states after thanksgiving. that is not the case in europe. have a full house. the stocks have not responded to our full house. they came back from the lows of the day. it will finish with little change. the china stockmarket slump set the tone. the euro-zone economic call the dense lifted. this is the chart that i love. the weekly run of the euro against -- it is rising. it has a weekly declining run, which takes us to next thursday, the ecb meeting. the euro has not fallen for seven weeks since 1999. we will be talking to the deutsche bank chief economist about the meeting next week and the u.k. gdp data. is in russia. the agricultural product will be subjected to additional border checks and authoritarian consultants. we have a special treat. julie hyman joins us. i'm ready for you. it is the big one. the european close is next. stay with us.

>> we have still to come mario draghi. what would you like to hear? there's still confusion as to where we're going on interest rate policy and also on further monetary easing. >> mr. draghi has to say if he wants the markets to be sustainable that he's willing to ease more and pump in more liquidity. in some ways the u.s. is finished. here in the u.s. we're almost done but not quite. they need to do a lot more in europe to get them out of the myer they're in and maybe some structure of reform. it's not all about austerity. >> nice to see you. thank you for stopping by. with us from hermes investment management. >> meantime the euro is trading out a six month low against the green back ahead of a speech by mario draghi that jeff was just talking with his guest about in london where he could signal further easing. draghi will take the podium at the open forum at 14:15 cet or 8:15 a.m. eastern and we'll also be speaking to the chief economist of the bank of england first on cnbc. tune in to an extended edition of worldwide exchange at midday cet for that

we had mario draghi yesterday, what about today? cannot gets: if you excited about gdp, you are in the wrong business. after the french can we get the german. then we get italy, and then at 11:00 local, we get the entire euro zone. the estimate is 0.4%. that is exactly what we got last time. take a look at some charts. usually you get pmi numbers, they are a pretty good indicator. this is for the entire eurozone, tracked against what is happening in real time. you see it is giving an indication you could have some decent numbers. the last fewhot times, it does indicate a surprise to the downside. let's take a look with the bloomberg real-time economic data tracker. this gives you data for germany. for themcking data against the gdp. that gets you 0.5%. the estimate is for 0.4% in germany. that is exactly what it was last month. let's take a look at german data, quarter on quarter. you see in the last five quarters, there is not a whole lot of growth. yes, you are in positive territory, but nothing to write home about. we are at lowe

bonnie: we start with a warning from ecb president mario draghi.ys the likelihood of inflation returning to the , anded levels declines economic risks arising. democratic presidential candidate bernie sanders has gotten his largest union endorsement yet. the american postal workers union has decided to back the vermont senator. the union is 200,000 members. supreme court justice and teens and early the -- intime scalia is wondering if the court's diverse enough to reflect the country's principle, despite the presence of three women and one african-american male. he noted that four justices are from new york city, they are all either catholic or jewish, and online study law at yale or harvard. a proposed smoking will would place the burden of enforcement on public housing agencies and could face resistance from tenants who do not want to give up control over what they can do in their apartments. president obama is selling something on ebay -- his new trade deal. an e-mail asks ebay members to support the transpacific partnership, helping them to con

mark, kick us off with post-mario draghi movements in the market.rth day of gains in 5. investors rushing off. we had the worst terror attacks in over a decade the vast friday in paris. investors are shrugging off those, sending stocks higher. the best weekly gain in a month. don't forget, the feds dictated the movement.

. >> mario draghi hammers home the message that the ecb will do whatever it takes to raise inflation levels reinforcing expectations for further easing next month. >> what i said here last year. if we decide the current trajectory is not sufficient to achieve our objective we will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible. >> the terror continues. the hotel group confirms that gunmen have taken 170 hostages at the radisson hotel in mali's capit capitol. >> europe has no time to waste. they're calling on ministers in brussels today to cooperate in the fight against terrorism. >> shares in nike are on a run after they reveal a 2 for 1 stock split and $12 billion buy back program. >> good morning, everyone. it is friday. let's take a quick peek at what u.s. futures are doing early hours. what we saw yesterday was a pretty flat day of trade. we saw the dow jones off by a couple of points but this morning expecting slight gains. the s&p 500 seen up by 4.5 points and the nasdaq seen higher by 11 points. look, health care, that was the big outperformer yesterday on the back

mario draghi was a senior civil servant in the italian finance ministry. europe's benchmark break was set by germany. that months, the fed boosted benchmark rates to 3.5%. the buddhist bank cut its discount rate by half a percentage point. cut itsundesbank discount rate by half a percentage point to it who better to discuss these issues then my guest. the founder and managing director. richard jones is in the house, from the bloomberg "first word" team. we heraard from you before. you are listening to draghi. nothing new but dovish. that is what we wanted. >> completely in line with what -- the next 12-18 months. we have seen signs of revival in europe. if you look at credit cycles and headwinds from fiscal policies waning, all of this is quite positive. yet, at the same time, the global environment is not very supportive. china, e.m., look at the impact china in europe. all of this put together means that if we have a rate rise in the u.s. in december, will it be a little bit too late for europe to actually engineer a meaningful recovery if world conditio

kate: that was mario draghi -- markus: that was mario draghi speaking earlier in brussels. it has helped global stocks on previous occasions, not so much today. a look at the united states' se ssion. the dow jones, the nasdaq, and the s&p 500 are all firmly in negative territory this hour with about 37 minutes or so to go of trading. energy is in focus, oil prices falling back. this at a time when figures show american crude stockpiles are building higher. we are seeing concerns about a supply glut coming back. that's why oil prices are down. we also saw energy shares on this side of the atlantic take a hit during thursday's session. that led the overall indices downward. 2% on the down almost session. rolls-royce shares weighed on the london stock market. we're going to take a closer look at why that was. we saw shares in the engineering firm finishing thursday 19% lower as the company issued its fourth profit warning in just over one year's time. rolls-royce says there is weaker demand for corporate jet engines as well as in offshore marine markets. the british company sa

this ahead of mario draghi that could signal further easing. >> okay we knew it was going to be big and it's proven to be the case. a $10 billion day for china's singles day. you see the heart here. november 11, it was a shopping frenzy soaring past last year's record with alibaba raking in a whole lot of dough and they took in half that amount of last year's take in just 19 minutes on the day. eunice filed this report on the antivalentine event. >> singles day got off on a solid start and the numbers are impressive. the chinese post office expects 760 million packages to be shipped today. alibaba alone already exceeded the online sales around the u.s. thanksgiving day holiday. black friday as well as cyber monday. singles day san anti-valentine's day. it started with university students that got together and wanted to give themselves and each other presents. then they turned the day into a massive shopping extravaganza. this year it's in beijing and there's a big gala last night where daniel craig took the stage. now the event, the point of the event is to get chinese consumers spendin

b hours ago, mario draghi said he would reinflate. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. it is friday, november 20. as of the week ago, we are looking at international relations and the clash of religions. francine: it is exactly what we're looking at, tom this raises questions about intelligence agencies and how we can work closer together and -- we have french great guests on set. : here is vonnie quinn with first word news. vonnie: we are following breaking news out of mali this morning. none man attacking the radisson blu hotel in the capital of bamako. rumor is that there are 170 hostages. the army commander tells the ap that 20 of the captives have been freed. until bloomberg there are u.s., french, and the hotel.ps in two malian citizens and one french citizen are dead. here are the latest of elements from paris. nearly one week after the attacks there, a third body found in a department that was rated two days ago. the body of an unidentified woman. the suspected ringleader of

and mario draghi said today that actust ask dac -- must to affect monetary easing.hinking he ism worried about a downside risk. that is, what ever it takes, which means it will push interest rates even more in negative territory. able consider extending its qe, and it said it will act rapidly. dovish than more before. so i think what he is trying to do is try to curtail that downside risk. betty: will the ecb be adding even more stimulus? >> i've been saying it for months now, they will add more while the fed will raise rates, most probably in december, and what you are going to get is this notion of divergent central banks. betty: now you've got some folks, well, goldman sachs included, saying that they have seen this route before and this global volatility has really taken down emerging markets, and we might actually, by next year, see this happen in goldman sachs, and we could see emerging assets at the bottom, and they are going to start finding their feet. in given this divergence the developing economy, do you believe that? that in certain countries, russia wa

mario draghi will deliver that part of the story.word and what they are saying with so much already build in. you are looking at the expectations built in. it surprises the market and makes the euro weaker. guy: this is a chart of the day. the commodity markets are arriving. let's show you. we have the right rocks. what you areyou seeing with the slightly-negative open here, in terms of where we think cash will open. so, this is kind of where you need to be here and it is a predictor for the cash opening later on. daya: it is weaker on a where we will see lower volumes. >> he will meet to talk about islamic state. the leader pressed merkel for a greater commitment. parliamentl urge the to back his plan. move that has the opposition labor party and he said they presented a clear and present danger to the united kingdom. the russian pilot shot down said his airplane never left syrian airspace. russian claims that this was planned in advance. markets surge after considering the shortselling. zinc rallied. and the hit a low european cent

certainly mario draghi having a fairly big impact here. ecb president mario draghi saying we will do what we must to increase inflation. monetary policy will remain accommodative for as long as necessary. in the past he said whatever it takes. now he says whatever we must do to make sure that inflation rises quickly and he says we can't be complacent about inflation staying low for too long. whether it's core inflation or headline inflation. >> yesterday in the minutes, the ecb minutes he was mirroring exactly what it is. the message he is giving. where he was talking earlier and i think it is important that he is now seemingly pushing out the prospect for when inflation is going to hit the 2% target which might make a difference to quantitative easing. maybe like the size and scope and all the other measures and also the time we have with regards to the rate hike but also just the quantitative easing in europe. >> also talked about the deposit rate quite a lot. expectations are ripe to the tune of ten basis points or so. we're at negative

mario draghi set the stage for the central bank to add more stimulus when it meets in a couple of weeks. he says he is ready to act quickly to boost inflation. will geopolitical risks derail his plan? it doesn't look like anything can stop nike after its most profitable year ever. it announces a 2-for-1 share split and a buyback. but is that a good investment? today, new album drops but it is not available for streaming. can she get people to buy her album the old-fashioned way? julie hyman has the latest. julie: we been stealing -- we have been seeing a rally, and the volatility we've been seeing lately, volume down great slightly from the 10 day average, down about 1.6% for the s&p 500. it is a witching day, which means the periodic expiration of futures and options contract, which tends to cause more volatility and volume, but there's no sign of that for the moment. major averages are up in the neighborhood of about .5%. that's as we go through the session. i want to return to what's going on outside of oxfam get a look at the bond market. we did here for mario draghi this morning sa

we will get you up to speed on mario draghi.tral bank focus now, what kind of week will it be with the data?being massive . anna: tomorrow is super thursday, when we get a rate decision. all the reports that go with that, we have inflation reports. and a crucial u.s. payroll numbers are out on friday. that piece of data will affect the rate conversation. bloomberg spoke with a former member of the board of governors. he said the u.s. may need to get use to a slower growth rate. >> the struggle is mostly over where inflation is growing. we have two criteria for liftoff. has a that the market recovery, mosul think we're in that region -- given that unemployment is down 5%. but they have to be reasonably conferenced and there on cap for 2% inflation target. inflation has been very low, we see very little wage pressure. the question is, do they need to act now? unconvincing,of the growth we are getting in the u.s. right now. it does not seem to have the foundation that it used to rest upon. is this because the dynamic of the economy

hasar, mario draghi surprised to the upside. on the way to provide liquidity to banks at a low cost. it would make sense for them to do that. a negotiable rate is bad news for banks. can mario draghi only disappoint if the market expects him to surprise every time? if we expect a miracle every time, he can't possibly beat expectations . at is laying good the ground for the possibility of more action in the future. he can always give us an ironclad certainty. they are starting to sound a bit different on inflation. the definition of that is close to or below 2% and he can insist on how symmetrical this is which would start creating an impression that maybe the ecb would be ready to expect inflation to be a bit higher than the target for a while. it's not for immediate consumption. there is no change in the rhetoric. this but inp create any case, it is felt that it would help them respond to market fluctuations. my sense is that they should manage their positions down. matt: we see the movement in the currency market this morning

david: we're due to get information from mario draghi and the ecb on wednesday. there is a lot of unanimity that something will happen, more stimulus. what do you think it will look like? ecb, when they meet on thursday, they will almost certainly cut their deposit rate another 10 basis points, deeper into negative territory. i think everybody is pretty much committee to that. it is key to keeping the currency down at this point in time. i think they will increase the pace of bond purchases a little. i think doing nothing on that front would surprise us. will broaden the bonds they buy marginally, but i am not sure that is important. they used the wording about continuing through september 20 16, and i think that will go away. qe until we get the inflation rate that. i think that will be the underlying message. since everybody expects to be surprised by mario draghi doing at least as much as expected, whether he can surprise as again this time, he gets harder every time. but that is his track record. david: forgive me, the meeting is thursday this week. mario dra

don't forget what mario draghi's head on friday.e said the ecb will do what is necessary to rapidly accelerated inflation. we are looking as much ahead to the meeting of the ecb as you are waiting for the meeting of the fed on the 16th. council hasverning to be encouraged by the pickup in economic activity. no inflation, but our fingers are crossed there will in the month ahead. now to our first word news. >> more than 20's aspects are now being held after five more were a rest did in connection with the paris attacks. the belgian capital has been a in a lockdown since saturday. an islamic militant group says only two gunmen carried out the attack last friday in a hotel in mali. an african news agency received a statement reportedly from the group claiming responsibility. deathnmen are claimed blamed for killing 19 people at the hotel. convicted spy jonathan pollard will make it to israel eventually. last week he was released represented north carolina. lifed served 30 years of a sentence for spying on israelis. for now he is hard f

despite the mario draghi saying that recovery has weakened. genie: one of america's most expensive houses is back on the market after an upgrade. stephen: it's in florida. it's on the market for $159 million. the house is modeled after the palace of versailles. meters,und 5600 square 11 bedrooms, and a cinema. it was on the market last year, but it was taken off by the owner after he decided to add two guesthouses, an ice skating rink, a bowling alley. "the wall street journal" says it has cost millions. genie: it is time now for "the press review." minot --lorence villa florence with us. athletics being rife with doping. florence: initially, the governments of the allegations were groundless and politicized. went so farinister as to say russia was being persecuted. repercussions of these allegations could be huge for team russia. the world anti-doping agency has recommended russian athletes be banned from upcoming competitions, inc. the next years olympics -- including next year's olympics in rio. genie: there's been a lot of focus on the fou

mario draghi set the stage for more stimulus. frankfurt, he said the ecb will do what is necessary to reach the goal of under 2%. policymakers are deciding whether to expand the program that began in march. nike just did it. the largest exporting company plans to buy back $12 billion in stocks in shares two-for-one. it has the stock up 5% in the premarket. they are coming off with the most profitable year ever. $3.6 billion in the ipo and that allows the dutch government to recoup some of the money, bailing out the banks during the financial crisis. why they owned abn amro, it turned them to a consumer lender from the netherlands. david: thank you. francisco is the head of global commodity research of thick of america and merrill lynch joins us for a third weekly decline of oil. francisco knows his commodities. i spent quite a few hours with francisco and i'm honored. stephanie: wearing a smart suit today. david: he always dresses well. there is global oversupply in oil and signs it will persist. take us through what is going on

what does mario draghi do about that? piece in bloomberg today which came out a few minutes ago explaining how mario draghi is behind the curve because the already assumed the deposit rate will go from -0.2% to -0.3%. he at least has to do that if not go further. the market is expecting qe to be extended from september 2016 to september 2017. so he has to do that. they're looking to the amount of monthly bond purchases to go over the current 60 billion euros. he has to come through with that. then, the market is going to say, what next? mr. draghi has said he will do whatever is necessary at this stage so the market starts looking for more and more. that is the problem. i consider quantitative easing is comfortable best comparable to a type of drug addiction. we went through that for many years in the united states without being able to get off. we stopped qb, but then we had to resume again. now we are at zero interest rate and that has become an addiction. side, mr.opean draghi's went to find out that he cannot get off

they have prepared the markets and mario draghi does like to overdeliver. perhaps we will see more coming this week. in some sense, the ecb has prepared markets so that the more thanf it does currently expected, a lot is already expected. betty: simon, what exactly is going to happen or likely to happen? play out for us to move. the deposit rate is the rate of the ecb charges on banks to hold its money overnight. that is likely to be pushed further into negative territory. how much remains to be seen on thursday. they have the quantitative plan. amount ofncrease the monthly buys. those in the main policies we can expect to see it on tuesday. betty: mike, by the way, letting the pink sweater look today. house is going to affect janet yellen and the fed? mike: what the ecb is going to do will not affect janet yellen. own will make their decisions based on the data they get to simon talked about the need to prepare the markets. mario draghi has done that. janet yellen gets her chance to do that wednesday and thursday. she gets another economic policy speech an

julian: mario draghi. ng out insurance against the potential for the start -- that's right. tom: this is critical. s,en you see copper at new low what does it signal to the union bank of switzerland? still do not have transparency. we may never into how china is going to land. are we going to stay 6%? what does 2017 hold? that is really the issue. guy: let me jump in. what is the number on euro -dollar that draghi would like to see? julian: uh, i don't know that he's concentrating on par but what he wants to see is just a stability in december as we g et to this change in fed policy that is nine years in the making. guy: is q.e. in europe working and should we have more of it? julian: i think it is working. our economists are looking for 1.8% growth next year. i think what you're seeing on the corporate side is the beginnings of my profit recovery but it is a drawn out process. eceiously, as we see in gre today, and portugal, their issues. there have been issues. there are going to be issues. where are you

mario draghi speaks on thursday. you look at the next potential shock, are you worried that the fed will have to reverse if they hike in december? what does it mean for implications for mario draghi? catherine: the fed does not want to have to reverse. that is why they have been so careful about not moving too quickly. they want to make sure the u.s. economy is sound and the rest of the global economy can also bear any brunt. if there is not a move in december, it will be because they do not think the time is right from the standpoint of the package. i do not think it is going to affect mario draghi. his focus is on the european economy. is that the faces other two components of policy, fiscal and structural, need to be in place for his policy to have traction. he made that very clear at the center of the speech he gave in june in portugal. he said, why am i talking about structural policy? it is because he cannot get to his 2% target if the economies cannot adjust. it is about structural. vonnie: how much has the oe

you mentioned mario draghi at the top.is falling against the pound, falling against the dollar today. it is falling against the pound after we had a survey showing u.k. services accelerated last month. what does that mean for the bank of england? we will find out tomorrow when the boe releases its rate decision. back to mario draghi, what he said was the level of monetary accommodation provided by the ecb will be re-examined in december. it was only a few days ago he gave this interview 20 italian newspaper saying it's an open question whether further policy stainless will be necessary. is he the flip-flopping man or what? betty: possibly. confusing the markets. we will need more clarity. mark barton in london on the european trades. let's head back to the u.s. abigail is live from the nasdaq. we are talking food. wendy's. abigail: wendy's put up a great quarter this morning before the bell, beating street forecasts for a third quarter. nine cents versus eight cents. they talked on revenue. the strength was driven by the f

mario draghi signaled more easing at a speech and record.omment settled on the central bank concern the inflation rate will slip further from its target. inflation is not something we can be relaxed about as in the past it has been a good forecaster for where inflation will stabilize in the medium-term. support from the depreciation of the euro and deflationore services . it will depend on rising nominal wage growth. ecb announces its next policy decision in the next two weeks. and preparesaggy for the massive cost of fixing -- volkswagen prepares for the massive cost of fixing 11 million cars. volkswagen says it will not cut "at the expense of our future." scarlet: penny pritzker continues to make the case for the transpacific partnership. speaking exclusively on bloomberg, she called the deal a huge accomplishment. tpp standsed where now and what it means for future relations with china. it is not including china. we have to get past the agreement with the first 12 countries, and the thing about tpp is, it does set the standards for trade

scarlet: and a lot of surprise, especially if mario draghi does -- i will tell you which segment of thereasury market has seen supply dwindle. u.s.is as a percentage of total government debt, and what you will see is a comes down to less than 10% from as high as 34% in late 2008, and one reason is that the government is locking in record low long-term isrowing costs, so the time longer now. as far as the overall issue for the treasury declining as the economy has gotten better, so tax revenues are higher, so there is less of a shortfall, and this will actually dropped 27% next year, according to some. : it seems to be exacerbating another issue. the government will be borrowing less, and with all of the debt out there that the fed has bought over the years, there is the state asset shortage and that there is not just as much government debt out there, ironically, that people would like. scarlet: and they say that bond well. might be lower, as joe: right, and i want to dive into the terminal to talk about some of the data we got. we got some of these regional manufacturing report, and th

how carefully is mario draghi watching that, particularly heading into the december meeting?re thanink it people give him credit for. if you look at indicators for the euro area, things like the pmi and the gdp numbers, they are not doing badly or certainly enough to worry people that the eurozone is sliding back into recession, as it could have perhaps been a year ago as they were preparing for qe, but the very high level of unemployment in the euro area is absolutely key for mario draghi, because if you think of what the ecb has done over the last years, they have moved a whole chunk. two or three years ago, we were talking about the italian public finances, and now italy is borrowing at a negative interest rate, and it is pretty sustainable on that basis, and one thing that has put the existence of the euro at risk is a very high levels of unemployment, the very high levels of youth unemployment, continuing to generate support for the non-string financial parties coming to power in greece, and as we saw in greece in the first half of the year, once you have got sort of pol

matt: we expect a lot from mario draghi and we may be expecting too much from mario draghi. in any case, the strong dollar, weaker euro has helped european markets. here in the u.s., unchanged this morning. now we are steadily moving lower and lower. if you want to take a look in my terminal, the bloomberg chart here, i have the dow intraday. you can see we took another leg lower and we are coming down lower now at noon as well. it looks like all the pressure is on u.s. stocks as the european stocks slow at the close. scarlet: within the dow industrials, what is driving the measures lower? matt: we are on retail sales because of black friday and cyber monday. the biggest loser, for example, is nike. nike is the biggest loser on the doubt. there has been in a lot of talk about discounting today. piper jaffray is concerned about discounting. under armour. people are concerned about discounting at lululemon. maybe that is the reason you see the weight on walmart and nike. watson did say that cyber monday sales would be of 18% across the board. disney is also a big weight. we ar

mario draghi struck a tone.aid theed officials time for policy regulation is approaching. >> we should move the policy settings closer to normal levels now that the goals have been obtained a. there is no reason to continue to experiment with extreme policy settings. equally consistent with the data. >> there is also some evidence to suggest inflation underations are othe downward pressure. some expectations are at the low end of the ranges that we have seen in recent years. >> downside risk stemming from global growth and trade are clearly visible. moreover, inflation has somewhat weakened, mainly due to lower auto prices and the delayed exchangef the stronger rates seen earlier in this year. asset let's bring the manager from jpmorgan back in the conversation. if elected the chorus of voices from the fed, give me your interpretation. charles evans spoke about a gradual raise, but nothing above 1%. bonds are the worst performers. in portugal, the bonds have performed horribly. >> i think you are saying and to f

can mario draghi lowered the rate even further? we are trading pretty flat in the ftse 100. tentative, cautious on the equity markets today after the significant bets on ecb moves continuing to drive incomes lower. check out this low of negative yields. money being given to the government to hold their two-year bonds. spanish and as on ,ontinuing negative yield -.04%. one dollar north six. are mario draghi can add to that stimulus we heard exclusively from the vice president of the ecb. inflation is very low. what can they do to drive prices higher? we were talking about metals. big story in asia. withat what is happening copper. we are driving higher at the moment. we are driving higher up, more than 2% of copper. check out nickel as well. the chinese agency could investigate shortselling, but also buying metals. how driving prices higher at the request of the group. let's have a look at some of the miners reaction. glencore higher. human investigation saying they did not do enough in that mining disaster. in finian much higher. jonathan: caroline hyde, thank you very much.

are we going to see mario draghi do enough to satiate the markets? is that he might disappoint, which is to say, he will be aggressive but not hyper aggressive with a view to perhaps save something in his back pocket for the january meeting. we've got payrolls, we've got a fed decision, we've got a currency pair that might react quite violently to those events. i think the prudent thing that draghi might do is be aggressive but keep a little powder dry for january. there could be a lot of volatility in that pair and the other euro pairs. caroline: it has been a fascinating week in general. are we expecting just more turbulence? is it going to keep reacting to headline risks? >> absolutely. the oil market is pretty jumpy at the best of times. we saw that this week. we thought it was a very bland statement. it went nuts. this is a market where people are incredibly short. not quite unprecedented scale, but almost. if they see anything they think changes the picture, you get these huge rallies. they don't last very long. maybe a couple hours. short answ

what does it mean for mario draghi's policy? hans: if that economic activity leads to upward pressure on inflation, then yes. i don't know how quickly that will filter through. what has been clear, the latest data is inflation expectations were lower. they had to revise them down. they had to revise growth downward. until they see upward pressure from wages or inflation, mario draghi has his excuse. massivelyif not increase quantitative easing, just tweak it. you get empowered transmission. you get more bang for your buck of the asset purchases side. we are waiting to see how much asset purchase they are going to whether ither -- or is going to be indefinite. hans nicholsmanus: on the data in berlin. francine: their company is the european head of global market research. he joins us now, derek. give us a sense of what the pmi figures tell you. do -- does it need to rise? is executed in december a done deal at? >> i think it is a done deal. the data was good but the projections from the ecb are pretty much on the growth side, not

>so, i don't think it will affect mario draghi.e knows what he wants to do and his focus is on the european economy. the issue be faces is the other two components of policy, fiscal and structural, need to be in place for his policy to have traction. he made that very clear at the center of the speech he gave in june in portugal that he says, why i talking about structural policy, i'm a banker? he cannot get to a central target unless the economies adjust and it is about structural. rishaad: up next, a special style hasre gangnam a whole new meaning. ♪ executive andrew mackenzie is due in brazil today to see the damage when two dams broke triggering deadly mudslides. three people are confirmed dead and at least 15 are still missing. the bank could cost $1 billion and an investor may not resume operations until 2019. shares in sydney have recovered slightly after hitting a seven-year low. australia needed extra police where the death of an escapee from an immigration detention center sparked a riot. the unrest began after the body w

jonathan: as you look forward to december, since the last meeting mario draghi has been dovish around 12%. what is the upside for the rest of the year going into december when so much is already priced in? i would rather look to december, 2016. i think people get positive earnings growth and a central bank that is supportive. jonathan: the first quarter of 2015 is very much about the fx channel. let's call it qe1b -- how does it influence the market and how does it influence the stoxx question mark >> -- this stocks? started toit has recover and no one was to factor that into their numbers. helps because it keeps bond deals and interest payments low, but apart from that is the reason for being attracted to european equities. jonathan: peter sullivan, great to have you with us. a quick word from barclays -- he will stay with us later on. you look at things developing in china, the proxy for concern about china was the dax. are you seeing enough overnight that makes you think twice about that conviction? >> not really. sense thatr in the everything is lining up nicely for european equit

he gave a speech close to suggesting that mario draghi was beginning to grow horns and launching qe.nk mario draghi has done a very good job within the constraints of his situation, of trying to find as much freedom to move as possible. he said at jackson hole last year that he cannot do everything without some physical element. vonnie: exactly. there was a great op-ed in project syndicate today. are you concerned about ponzi so-called borrowers popping up? the growth of private credit we have before the crisis, with the vast majority of that kind of credit not funding new capital investment but funding the purchase of assets that already exist is bound to produce these strong cycles. if you have more credit, you have higher asset prices, and you have more credit. the problem we have with ultra-loose monetary policy is we are trying to stimulate the economy by restimulated liver growth of private credit that got us into the mess in the -- by rims -- by restimulated -- by the growth of private credit that got us into this mess in the first place. the issue of whether we need higher in

how drastic, how surprising you think mario draghi will be? the expectation will be to deliver again and again until the market embraces for that. and the accommodations and the comments coming out of the ecb suggests that the ecb is committed to stabilize price expectation. they're looking pretty much into global risk. they see that over the past six months, it has become more uncertain. therefore, they are considering, the quantitative easing -- to increase the maturity of the program. and maybe as well, the pool of eligible assets they're going to buy. exchange markets, that is entirely what you see on the deposit rate. now if those commentaries which recently have been flying around based on the comment by an unnamed ecb official, if they are about to split the deposit rate, actually, the ecb may consider to offer a bigger slash in the deposit rate. something like going in the direction of switzerland. and if that is the case, you could have the euro getting hit again. but then we have to consider as well the market which is already positi

today mario draghi seemed very urgent to fix inflation.ossible this recession in france, the application for the eurozone need for inflation? he needs inflation to justify higher interest rates to translate this process back into normalcy. he feels the urgency for good reason. this kind of activity in france suppresses inflation. it suppresses economic activity. the difficulty for the european union and the eurozone particularly, my view, is how they will get out. imagine tapering back to zero. imagine what happens when the ecb goes down, switzerland goes down, sweden goes down, denmark goes down, more economic -- more negative rate. -- rates. joe: if we get the situation as you are describing, but asset prices favoring the wealthy people who have financial assets continue to do well, do you see further divisions happening in the political system? david: sure. it destabilizes things. we use the gini coefficient. the real focus is income distribution. if and him -- income this tradition widens, you have less middle. the others suffer, we ha

you cannot accuse mario draghi.ell me how you have stability within switzerland as we go through a sovereign full faith in credit deleveraging? hans: you are absolutely right. am much closer to what mr. stieglitz has to say. but this is force used for funding purposes. but the balance sheet of swiss banks became too big and therefore you have to move close to parity. land, it can create a significant problem. therefore, the process of normalizing is so much more difficult than the process of adding liquidity to the market. tom: thank you so much. what a treat this is. will be here later today. mr.nt to talk to him about packard. what a time to talk to him. with a new business plan in hp. look for that later today. ♪ francine: welcome back, this is "bloomberg surveillance," i am in london and tom keene is in new york city. it is a good time to reflect on what china's president has been saying. policymakers will accept slower growth but not much slower than 6.5% that we have had so far. so what that means is what we a