mario draghi came out and said, yes there were concerns in the economy, notably brexit, but too earlyy about that. go off and enjoy your summer. what we want to find out is whether that is a true characterization of the debate policymakers had. how worried were they that the brexit vote would derail european recovery? these are not full minutes. this is an account of the meeting. it is unclear whether we will get that insight. that is what people want to know. also, bad loans in italy and intransigent governments not putting through reforms. francine: thank you so much, paul gordon. ,inal thoughts from janet henry been, mario draghi has doing a little more, but is he keeping an arsenal in case he needs to do full power if we have a recession in europe? janet: i think he knows he has to do more. the issues he was quizzed on and the july meeting were brexit, and he said it was too soon to tell what the impact would be, but the fed probably pleased that it hasn't had a bigger impact on financial markets. the other issue he was pressed on is the whole scarcity value of bonds. how far can

mario draghi has to do with europe. with david goldman about that experiment within the hour. but get to our "first word news" with taylor riggs. taylor: russia is ratcheting up its threat of retaliation against ukraine. moscow warns that the deaths of two serviceman will not go equence.cons poroshenko says russia is looking for any excuse to further military threats. russia seized crimea from ukraine in 2014. bombs exploded in two reservoir counts, killing at least four people and wounding 20. foreign tourists were among the hurt. the thai government does not know who was behind the attack. hillary clinton says it is a myth that donald trump is really on the side of the little guy. speech in michigan, clinton laid out her economic plan and ripped trump. mrs. clinton: in his speech on monday, he called for a new tax loophole. let's call it the trump loophole, the cousin will allow him to pay less than half the current tax rate on income for many of his companies. thanuld pay a lower rate millions of middle-class familie

mario draghi going forward will make sure nothing bad really happened.re is an accident, a global economic accident, a political accident that affects the outlook for eurozone domestic demand, he would have to hold against it. francine: what is the percentage chance of the accident and the eurozone imploding? holger: that i think is very low. francine: 10%? holger: much lower than that. francine: quickly? a third. would be chancee: one third of a that the eurozone breaks up and 5%. tom: we'll have to leave it there. thank you. thank you. stay with us, worldwide. this is bloomberg. ♪ ,l this morning, sterling weakens as the brexit affect affects all of his there an effect upon america? william lee of citigroup this hour. the boston red sox go down in flames to the new york yankees. will the stock market follow? who wants to be president most, clinton or trump? hillary clinton talks economics today. "surveillance berg we have almost moved on the brexit effect. francine: i think it was put perfectly that someone said nothing has happened yet. we don't know

up next, mario draghi let's the numbers do the talking head of this week's ecb -- next week's ecb meeting the ecb may need to dive deeper into its operational brain. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: the central bank focus in europe now. -- a summer of silence from mario draghi. he skipped the jackson hole retreat. a whole host of data out of his week that speaks for itself. let's speak with brendan brown. in the euro area is holding up, inflation this week should show a pickup from point to -- a pickup from point to the .3. would you say the euro zone economy is holding up point brexit -- post-brexit? brendan: i would say there are two pieces of data that were a bit worrying. one is the french economy reported no growth at all. the second piece of data was the ifo institute had a significant fall in its latest index. that is the most important indicator for germany. i would say on balance, and bit of disappointment. mark: where does that leave the ecb? brendan: the most likely outcome is we are going to come up with a new forecast that will justify some extension of the bond buying program. mar

ecb president mario draghi has been quiet for over a month.turn to eurozone data out later today for guidance and of next week's --tral-bank meeting speaking was critical of ecb policy. >> just focus on inflation or the intermediate variable they thought about was the interest rate. now they are talking about -- or the have negative interest rates. they have not worked. these negative interest rates extraordinary. and have a weakened the balance sheet of the banks. toogood is still with us should -- is still with us. yesterday stanley fischer alongside tom keene was much rates.sitive on negative there is irony for you. keep or rates, better for stocks? keep on buying? peter: is the plan to keep growth or to force money out of your bank account to spend? no, it is stupid on every level. it impairs banks. it is bad for them. europe, you will encourage people to save more to the evidence of everything else. in germany, the savings rate is appreciating, it is going higher because people don't actually do these things. the spending mentality is not

mario draghi will talk about the idea he has tools available to him. a little bit more duration to it, maybe a little bit more science attached to it. it is more of the same. people are questioning if the bank for the buck story is beginning to run out of steam. fiscal policy needs to do some of the heavy lifting. governments need to restructure and reform. also the difficulty of whether negative rates work. i suspect there are disappointing views on where we are at this time. he has a big fixed income business. tough to make money when you look at it through a european lens. thank you very much. that is the key question going forward, in terms of where we go from a negative based on perspective. we have had so many different views. alix: structure and reform are the key things. that leads us to brazil. this is the day where the senate will vote on doma recess -- will vote on dilma rousseff's impeachment. what makes it not likely? >> not much. the last five days have been tumultuous. the sessione had or 3:00.2:00 they will reconvene to vote. there are

mario draghi not speaking for many weeks now.rs are left to her through the details of the latest releases. we get a couple of key ones today. see0:00 u.k. time, we will inflation rates of the eurozone, unemployment data also dueut. will it be much of an impact from the brexit vote, or is it too early to see an impact? the council next meets on september 8. the data hasof suggested that the 19-nation euro zone is showing few signs of losing case. jpmorgan and deutsche bank are among two of the banks that have pushed back their projections of further easing from mario draghi. is something to talk about with extent to the eurozone gross story. that will be the focus. yousef: that's on the economic front. without anybe a day political drama in europe. what are you looking out for? politicalplenty of drama, in many quarters, it seems. in france, the reformist french decided toister has resign from the government. he announced this yesterday evening, prompting much more intensive speculation as to whether he will broaden to become pre

francine: it is been over a month since the markets heard from mario draghi.pdates will be watched closely ahead of next week's central-bank meeting. german inflation slowed in august. today we heard rices and france rose by 0.2% over the past year, slower than expected. -- we heard prices in france rose by 0.2% over the past year, slower than expected. let's introduce my guest for the show, on financial year -- alternate julia -- antonin jullier. on the back of it is what we heard from the fed, the hawkish comments from the -- from stanley fischer. you play that against the backdrop. initial thoughts. europe is stronger than we thought it could be. antonin: the is his knee in will, lower rates -- we see signs coming out of the fed, potentially which may change that. if it weren't the case, he would've found indications and markets, inflation of dividend yields. because of the relative positioning. it is still too early to judge. it is going to remain highly data dependent. the six or numbers are coming out tomorrow. it does highlight -- the cpi numbers are co

governor mark carney channeled mario draghi us whatever it takes mantra. >> all of the elements have scoped to be increased in this package. andease the size the tfs expand the scale of variety of assets held in the asset purchase facility. the mpc is clear that we see the effect of lower bound as a positive number close to zero but a positive number. bank of england stands ready to take whatever action is needed to achieve its objective for monetary and financial stability as the u.k. adjusts to new realities and moves forward to seize new opportunities outside the european union. mark: joining us now, ross walker. he says the decision is a welcomed first step by policymakers. thank you for joining us on this historic day. why was there a necessity for the boe to overdeliver? .t brought out the sledgehammer it might not be the biggest sledgehammer in the world but you have to say it is a sledgehammer. ross: i think the economic outlook has deteriorated. a lot of uncertainty about the debt and duration of any slowdown coming following the eu exit phot. this could be a mild recession

that wouldn't be a good outcome for mario draghi.rancine: jeff, thank you for all the explanation. what was interesting is also mark carney about 10 days ago morning that the banks should be very careful. he doesn't want the boe to go into negative territory. he's warning banks not to pass on negative rates to customers. let's bring back john bilton. rates, just a reminder, you believe central banks can get us out of this mess. is negative rates, are negative rates art of the solution? john: i think they are part of the experimental toolkit. central banks, much like many economic actors today, are in the experimental drug phase of monetary policy. we don't have a counterfactual to tell us how successful central banks have been. the fact that we have positive growth around the globe, we have avoided a major crisis, we've significantly shored up the western banking system, suggests they should at least be given a b minus for their efforts. whether negative rates are the right and only tool is unlikely to be the case. i think we're seei

what are we going to hear from mario draghi? is it more of the same?igilant lent, we need to be careful and there's downside risks? adam: not through any further introduction in interest rates ut some modification of qe parameters and opening up the scope further going forward from here. so we see some negative risks for the euro on the back end of that in the short term. francine: everything goes back to the fed so if the fed hikes once or twice, it does make mario draghi's life that much easier. >> adam: it would and broad dollar strength would help through the exchange rate. aggressive -- but the fed hike pretty much 85% into the future would have done most of its work. tom: adam, i want to talk to you about the dispersion or movement of other currencies versus dollar. f we have a one-way bet of the euro going weaker, the euro sterling by the assumption by an upper it move to stronger euro and weaker sterling? i'm confused as you just noted as i described the chart. what's the euro going to do? adam: so i think timing is critical. the independent st

mario draghi then talking in july about readiness, act ifness, ability to needed.do we expect next from the ecb? jane: again, if we look at the post-grexit data, that was not bad at all. and i think if we stay in the u.k., some of our very frayed nerves going into it have been calmed by the initial data. of course, medium-term we saw the headwind potential, investment flow, affecting gdp, german exports, etc. we have a huge amount of uncertainty. but for now, things have been ca lm, and i would think that would let mario draghi ease more, but perhaps not in september. anna: the resilience of u.k. data so far? jane: better than it could have been married but if we look at the data we had last week, that was great. anna: was it just the weather? jane: we know something about the u.k., that the weather is going to change their we know it will not be that way long time. what is more worrying is the medium-term investment flow. now, investment flows are related to job creation. if you do not get back, that is going to be bad for gdp, etc. so, that is concerning. we did

. >> no central banker in the world is talking about it when they asked mario draghi about it , he says we've never talked about it. and they keep asking him. you little reminder that are probably saying this about negative rates in january. here, the look around problem is that the more central bankers say, the less efficient it is. >> do you agree with us? dr. weinberg is not thrilled about it either. helicopter money is a statement and identifies original physical transformation, right? >> they are engaging in helicopter money. in essence, it is helicopter money. but because of what it does, i wrote an article that the central bank, they are inflation toxins. bank says they store these reserves. the money needs to seep out for it to be toxic. it is more bank lending. >> we had a conversation, it's not like money but it's a little bit like a script. , nowis the kind of merger the government can borrow for zero. >> the interstate highway system was put in place, 50,000 miles of roadway and we still drive those roads and gain benefit in the economy from that investment. in the united st

mario draghi really change the direction of travel. waiting for the .eptember 8 for the ecb what is going to be delivered upon? at the moment, governments do not look like they are getting their acts together. caroline: waiting of course for september as well, from the boj governor kuroda's about from jackson hole? >> the interesting thing is how went.t kuroda he said he would boost stimulus without hesitation or it he is more than ready. he is more than happy to ease monetary policy. .e is willing to do that now the yen is declining from friday onwards. this kind of signals how not only the bank of japan, even other central banks around the region -- asia, emerging markets -- are ready-to-eat is to allow for the fed's raising of interest rates. might i just take a moment to say that the expectations of a red -- of a rate increase have been staggered. when it finally rules, the markets in asia will be prepared for a rate increase. caroline: certainly some hopes in the japanese stock buying that we saw, robin. give us a little sense goi

what mario draghi and governor kuroda need is a significantly higher oil price.e buying oil. and i have said that on the show before. i think it is true. an problem -- and you have excellent chart on the bloomberg behind you -- is once we saw the seeecovery, you start to the producers in the u.s. starting to add rigs and production. francine: this is the u.s. rig count in white. in purple, brands, and in blue, wti. as soon as the price falls, it does not fall much longer, because rigs come back online. so the producers are not opec, it is the white line. simon: maybe they are heading towards production capacity in the major opec producers. at the thing that stopped a deal in april was the lack of forement between access iran and saudi arabia. what has changed? iran has notk reached the kind of level of output. maybe it is capable of producing the short run, but certainly not its ambition. if you go back to the pre-sanction age in the 1980's, iran and saudi arabia producing almost identical qualities. strategic vision for iran. francine: simon, thank you. simon fr

do you think mario draghi is listening to the ceo's? making a plea?course, bargaining going , and in a way, the industry is giving us a message, you know, from the central bank. the rates are what they are, you know, and the message, if we listen to the ceo, the mess is it will be a transformation and business of large insurers. now taking over, major change, and actually there to also transform the company. there will be an adaptation to the new environment. so in a way, the companies will adapt over time. mark: thank you. mark? mark: the earnings season remains in focus. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i am mark barton. matt: i am matt miller. julie hyman is looking at retail stocks. julie: a lot on their earnings front. one of the big ones we are watching is falling by so much, down 21%. the company coming out, cutting its forecast. its new forecast is for earnings per share as much as 70%. it had been at least 70%. sales last quarter rose in north america by 16% internationally. sales may be rising. cost me -- cost them more getting into stores. that a

europe is the bulwark of in terms of what mario draghi needs to keep going. any attempted reciting story. yousef: at the one-year anniversary, who is happy. if you shorted the chinese currency you might be happy. where one year past those really prophetic moves last year by the bank of japan. it really wrongfooted the market at that time. the currency is about to join the basket of the imf. their share of global trade is dropped in and that has that is pretty much the shape of it. we'll be talking about your favorite subject. rishaad: let's check in on the first world headlines. roz: valiant pharmaceuticals is said to be under criminal investigation for allegedly defrauding insurance. federal prosecutors are examining whether dalliance and their relationships. in a statement to the embattled drugmaker says it is cooperating with the new york-based investigation. inpreviously disclosed october. netflix is seeing another record year of tv production. that is bad for business. netflix alone will make 71 original script that shows next year. the 500 series will b

we had brexit, political fallout, but it is fine because mario draghi is there. how risky is that?oatta: we cannot keep with these kind of measures. at the same time, their risks with high liquidity that is being pumped into the european economy. bubbles -- asset bubbles popping up in different areas. .t is a realistic risk francine: should be worry about inflation? i spend a lot of my time saying up? is inflation which we do about it? companies are struggling in terms of revenue but they do not have to pay their workers more to feel richer. should we not complain that we are not seeing that much inflation? margareta: it will be a signal that demand is picking up more. you get a inflation, signal as well as that demand is driving the economy. francine: how d.c. brexit? margareta: -- how do you see brexit? it is almost back to normal as if nothing happened. i would've expected much more and certainty, much more global effects. the u.k. economy is just a small share of the global economy. francine: what does that tell us? how we price risks? is it that this economy is stronger than w

bring on mario draghi next week. 90 minutes into the trading day. abigail doolittle has the latest. >> we are looking at losses. alldow, s&p 500 and nasdaq trading lower. for the dow and s&p 500, we have these two indexes on the red -- in the red. for the s&p 500 for the first time in february. the nasdaq still higher on the month. the big story among the market, oil plunging on the day. a surprise build up 2.3 million timess, three expectations. when we do take a look at the , we see what the build looks like. it did cause oil to fake a sharp downtick in the session. not surprisingly, weighing on the oil stocks, including exxon mobil and schlumberger. on paper the worst day since august 1. we see what the build looks like. itnot all about the department f energy data. mainly about that, but we do have pressure from the dollar. the dollar is trading higher. higher the last four days, up after the more hawkish comments from fed chair janet yellen last ride a at jackson hole. abigail doolittle. thank you. checking in on the bloomberg first word news.

mario draghi will face more serious questions about that.lack -- in frankfurt, thank you for that. a look at how the indices closed. the stoxx 600 pretty much unchanged. it recouped its post brexit losses. much slower to do that than the u.s. and asia. lower. let's look at how the bond markets and currencies have been shaping up. on the 10 year gilt yield, we are down two basis points. weaker sterling. worst-performing currency in the world. it has reclaimed that crown, down 0.2%. stronger euro, though, after data out of europe. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is noon in new york, welcome to "bloomberg markets." matt: from bloomberg's world headquarters in hot, hot new york, i'm matt miller. .liver: i'm oliver ran it here's what we are watching. stocks taking a break after hitting new records this week. treasuries are rallying. andppointing retail sales the likelihood of a fed rate interest ike. matt: we have breaking news. it looks like hillary clinton is forasing her tax returns 2015. we see that the clintons say they paid 34.2% tax rate for th

when i asked mario and drug -- mario draghi they said they had not talked about it. hello.reminder probably were saying this about negative rates in january. three days before he went, he said negative rates? we are not doing negative rates. the problem is the more central bankers say, the less efficient it is on the start using it. >> we can blame the central bankers were a lot of miscommunication. we can blame them for negative interest rates. the practicality of helicopter money is zero. say it's a failure, what is the alternative at the moment? we don't have an alternative until we break it up. witness the is systemic and dangerous thing to do? continuingtter than in the current path. in other words if you look at what's happened as a result of the euro, the rigidities input and, and took away the exchange rate mechanism for adjusting and didn't put anything in its place, the output, the gdp of below evenbeen well the united states. we were the country where -- from wednesday crisis began. we have done a better job in recovery. basically, .3%, .4%, that is not a good pe

first time ever there's a discussion and this is motte a problem that mark carny is facing but mario draghiwell. >> meanwhile disney shares turned around this morning after initially selling off what were better than expected results and the company also announcing a billion dollar streaming and julia sat down with bob iger and joins us with more now from the conversation. >> that's right. talked to iger about disney investing a billion dollars in the streaming video company to create digital streaming apps for brands across the country including a new streaming sports service that will include sports like hockey and baseball and will not stream exiting espn channels but iger opened the door to bringing traditional espn direct to consumers outside the bundle. >> if the business model starts in a significant way we have the ability to pivot quickly and put out a direct to consumer model and that's really important. we're not suggesting that it's going to happen. it's our hope that that doesn't happen but this puts us in a great position and shouldn't happen. >> there's potential to launch ap

that is going to begin news for mario draghi in terms of his fight against the deflation struggles.f: plenty to cut through then. rish: china's latest trade figures are raising concerns that exports are still sluggish. chief asia economics correspondent and a current is with me now. these figuresat in yuan terms and dollar terms, what is being painted? the: softening exports to u.s. and eu, key markets for china. in yuan terms, it isn't as bad. weaknessts out of could be a source of concern. it could suggest a softening in consumer demand in china. itn you take it together, shows that the manufacturing sector still has not turned the corner. we haven't had the circuit breaker that policymakers are hoping for. yousef: rish: rish: we saw stabilization when it comes to those fx reserves. they were rifling through the met the start of this year, and in january, people were saying they were looking at armageddon and china was going to run out of money. a far cry. enda: they're obviously in a much better space now. happeninghings are here. america seems more comfortable with the exchange

buying corporate securities, i just -- i'm remiss to think that, first of all these entities like mario draghike mr. carney, they have to choose which corporate securities to buy. in their choice is already a conflict of interest. just think about brussels. if brussels wanted to make the arrangements that they are supposed to be working on shortly, when brexit triggered with respect with regard to the uk, maybe the corporate securities they buy are the competitors of businesses and multinationals in the uk. maybe if they get a different change of heart, maybe they'll actually look to buy some corporate securities out of the uk, but that's an awful lot of power. the other issue to consider is where does all this extra cash go as these rates go down in most of it goes into buybacks if there was proof there was a transmission in the cappi ex, i would be a different story. this is just pile-on. listen, just because you don't know exactly what to do doesn't mean anything should be your first choice. j jon fortt, back to you. >>> up next it's a tough day to wayfair. shares down more than 17%. wayfai

improving from a moderate base, and that is typically -- francine: how much is that thanks to mario draghid how much thanks to a weaker nominal basis? >> i think there's a genuine improvement. not in all places, but places like spain, which have clearly done structural reforms, they are benefiting quite significantly. germany is doing relatively strong. but at some places in the euro area, there are doing really well. in france and italy are struggling, but that is more due to mario than what they have done on the home front. francine: peter, thank you so much. peter schaffrick. these are your markets. this is probably one of the biggest stories of the day, oil. this is the picture for oil overall, $45 on wti. it is the one people are looking at, saudi saying more and more that they want something to stabilize the markets. it is unclear whether they mean a production cut or even a freeze, but that is how the markets are interpreting it. look at that 101.09. if it goes below 100, that is a technical level, and european stocks overall in europe will gain 0.4%. a lot a focus on brexit in the

it's a fact great no central banker in the world is talking about it great when they asked mario draghit at a press conference, he said, we've never talked about it. . reminder that you probably were saying this about negative rates in january. when governor kuroda was asked that, he said we are not looking at negative rates. say,ore central bankers the more efficient it is when they start using it. >> we can blame central bankers miscommunication and negative interest rates. but the practicality of helicopter money is zero. say the euro is a failure, what is the alternative at this point? we don't have an alternative until we break it up great wouldn't that the a systemic and dangerous thing to do? >> it's better than continuing in the current path. if you look what has happened as a result of the euro, the rigidities it has put in, it took away the interest rate and exchange rate mechanism for adjusting, do not put anything in its place. europe output, has been well below even the united states. whence in a country from the crisis began, we've done a better job in recovering. .hey are

he echoed the famous words of mario draghi, saying they will take whatever action is needed and all policyools can be intensified. exclusive comments on bank of america ceo brian moynihan from everything from brexit to the health of the european banks. they can adjust for the referendum because no one knows with the rules will be. as as shares falling today probability forecast disappoints analysts. at the same time, nike makes a decision to stop selling golf equipments. could that change adidas' own decision on golf? have a look at where european equities are trading right now. we are 30 minutes away from the close. coming out today, the perfect opportunity to bring up tn and go, maximum movers. this brings out the u.k. accents on those three columns. this is the equities column, top of the lead for the ftse 100. measures cutting rates to a record of 25 basis points, the majority expect rates near zero by the end of the year. expanding qe 16 billion pounds. they will buy this over the next several months. we have corporate bond buying program, over the next 18 months, to the tune of 18 bi

delay until october or december is actually increasingly possible however it's important to note mario draghi, central bankers assessing the impact of the brexit. as we switch over to the pound, so interesting moves in the currency there jumping today after retail sales in the u.k. posted a larger than expected increase in july as recent weakness in the pound attracted tourists to london. the upbeat retail number suggests that the shorter term impact of the brexit may have been milder than expected. the pound slightly stronger against the u.s. dollar in today's trade. yet the unrelenning demand for european debt indicates investors are taking a more defensive or risk averse approach to investing. yields there moving lower. the exception being portugal where bond deals are rising for the third consecutive day on concerns that the ratings agency may downgrade the investment grade status which would add just one more risk to the european playground. meantime, nestle is one of today's bright spots. the first half results helped in part by stronger sales in north america and nestle shares up about

mario draghi and the stress tests. it fits.nother area i talked to, charles beaterman today, that has really captured my imagination to underscore the dynamic we're talking about. three ms. money markets and margins. many are fearful. some of the biggest bond institutional bond gods are nervous we could get a big reversa reversal. it seems so logical but i'm not buying if for the following reasons. now, as money market reform comes we're not seeing lots of money leave money markets. charles aptly pointed out, seeing a lot more money going into treasuries. second issue, treasuries are now the currency of margins due to special capital treatment, fancy jargon for considering the demographic time bombs around the world and the notion of servicing debt that's out of control, they're going to find that they, meaning you a the agencies of governments, are going to find reasons to make treasuries something you hoard and not necessarily sell. that happening in margins. all of those things are very much abnormal. will they change anytim

when they asked mario draghi about it at a press conference, he said, we've never talked about it.him about helicopter money. hello. >> a little reminder that you probably were saying this about negative rates in january. in fact, when governor kuroda before he went to negative territory, he said, negative rates? nothing to look around her, we are not looking at negative rates. more central bankers are saying it, the more efficient it is when they start using it. >> we can blame central bankers for miscommunication and negative interest rates. but the practicality of helicopter money is zero. >> when you say the euro is a failure, what is the alternative at this point? this is what we have. we do not have an alternative until we break it up. what if that be a systemic and dangerous thing to do? >> it is better than continuing in the current path. in other words, if you look at what is happened as a result of the euro, the rigidities that is put in, taking away interest rates and exchange rate mechanism for adjusting and did not put anything in his place. the output, the gdp of euro

seeing signs,e both mark carney and mario draghi are buying corporate bonds.tly, -- price -- did not move. that is a sign of what central banks are doing. a sense lulling us into of complacency. fund managers have to be aware of the macro risks out there. alix: if you have room to run, how does this wind up first in? is there a backup in the bund level? a backup in the 10 year treasury yield where this goes out the water? barnaby: it does not end it nicely. ecb or the bank of england stop buying corporate bonds. they have barely started. mark carney likes the idea of buying corporate bonds. i'm going to buy more corporate bonds. it seems the bond buying program will not disappear anytime soon. and 13here between 12 trillion negative yielding fixed income across the globe. whistle if you like the inflation down the line. how do you trade fixed income? it gets tougher. bund curve at the and yield negatives all the way out to 10 years. the onelem could be thing they are thinking, that is inflation. could that be the biggest financial stability risk up there at th

everything mario draghi said at the last meeting.d to cut interest rating for the first time in seven years today as it faces weak economic data following the brexit vote. jeff is outside the bank of england ready and waiting for that. we've talked this morning, jeff, about the balance of what more the bank of england can do on the monetary policy front dp the effect it can have versus the need for fiscal sflus. how much of a nudge do you think carney gives hammond here to reflect more on what the fiscal side can do. >> that's a very interesting question and very pertinent to where we are at the decision today because we know very quickly a lot of the post-brexit nerves were calmed by the rapid shift we saw within the conservative party and the fact that within a matter of days they managed to move from the uncertainty that surrounded a selection and then election company that was going to run through until the middle of, what, september potentially and what we actually got was a very rapid shift in the leadership race that saw there

it lost 4% in the last quarter on brexit and finally mario draghi, the head of the ecb skipping thiss the second year in a row that he has not attended. he did though give a big signaling speech in 2014 signaling qe in europe. governor kuroda will be speaking tomorrow. >> our one-on-one exclusive with stan fisher in a few moments. in the meantime mike is here at post 9. going to be interesting to see how if any fischer changes today's trajectory. >> he's obviously been the one that leaned toward saying not mission accomplished but we're close in terms of our goals and also he has a little more of a focus on financial markets. he doesn't want them to get too overconfident and take on too many risks so that's been his role at the fed. he was quite for maybe six weeks. kept away during that period when the fed was nursing it's wounds for having scared the market into a false start on rate hikes in the spring. >> you know, we heard a lot of fed officials speak out recently and the conversation from commentators has changed from fed officials disagreeing with each other to fed officials d

do you remember this famous words by mario draghi four years ago.believe us or believe me it will be enough. opec is saying the same, but unfortunately, nobody believes. they don't have the means, and in fact they are going to fail so you just opposite side of the things and i think as there will be no agreement and expectations beforehand are just too high so we're likely to see a decline in the prices. >> why wouldn't there be an agreement and do you think an agreement is needed at this stage? we're not dropping off a cliff. we've been at $40 before. some would say it's a healthy level. >> it's a healthy level and i've been thinking how many times we've already adjusted our forecast since the beginning of the year, zero. the fact is that the markets right now and the oil price is performing like it should be. you know t, the oil has become just another commodity. it's not anymore a political instrument. it's not anymore been driven by the opec policy. it's been driven by the demand and supply and in the end is being also decided upon by the margin

caroline: we will be listening to mario draghi. he has been silent for five weeks.call for fiscal stimulus as well. apples tax day, in ireland. -- illegally/the iphone maker's tax bill. we will debate the long-term fallout and preview apples big san francisco event, next. ♪ alix: this is bloomberg go. coming up, the cio of templeton global macro reveals where he is putting money to work. caroline: meanwhile, the world's wealthiest company has been paid $4.5der to pay nearly billion in a tax crackdown. down inany is trading the free market on the news. joining us for more, is brian white, a senior analyst to currently has a buy rating on a $180 -- andy $180 price tag run -- and a $180 price tag run. >> we have to put this in perspective. u.s., ireland is going to appeal, apple will appeal. inle has about $32 billion cash as of last quarter. bill, it wouldax take about 80 days to generate that much. in the big scheme of things, while it is a huge number and a headline grabber, for apple it is a drop in the bucket relative to their cash position. caroline: let's talk a

>> mario draghi if you talked about willingness to do more he is always near the top of the list.ontinue to see what he can do and he will face more and more pressure next year if the inflation rate moves up at all on any kind of base effect if oil prices stay or they are. he wants to do what he can do now and he does want to do everything he can. his fundamental problem is that european politicians are hamstrung by the rules around fiscal policy and the one place i am optimistic we will get easier fiscal policy is the eurozone. he will do what he can that i'm not sure there is much left in his locker. >> in terms of what happens with the bank of england. once again we are still overbought when we are looking at u.k. stocks, the ftse 100 above 70 once again with technical indicators saying it is time to sell the ftse 100 resolutely up 0.1% this morning. will we see it remain low? will we see that november rate cut again? if you look at the market it seems to only be factoring about a 28% chance of a rate cut in november. economists seem to be more bullish. >> was a massive defense

when they asked mario draghi about it in the press conference, he said we have never talked about it.ing him because -- but he has said they have never talked about it. francine: when governor kuroda, three days before he went to negative territory, he said, negative rates? we are not looking and negative rates. the problem is that the more central bankers say, the less efficient it is when they start using it. carl: i agree that we can blame the central bankers for miscommunication, but the practicality of helicopter money is zero, absolutely dead zero. --: olivier von chart olivier blanchard said it is a scam. tony: i mentioned it earlier in , which is a form of helicopter money. the central bank, their inflation is toxic. where do they go? money needs to seep out for it to be toxic. unless there is a seeping out and there is more bank lending. in europe, there were three years of negative growth in private credit, only recently growing at 1%. without more credit growth, we will not get the growth that -- they are not going to make -- carl: we had a conversation on this at high freq

shinzo abe was trying to send a message dressed as super mario because the last super mario was mario draghin 2012. he's sending a message. anna: we will see. geoffrey yu from ubs stays with us. up next, pfizer is said to be in talks to acquire the maker of a blockbuster prostate cancer drug. the full details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ . . ♪ anna: welcome back. this is "countdown," at 6:30 in london. a new edition of daybreak is available in your bloomberg and on your mobile. let's look at the top stories making this morning's edition. this is the front cover picture, illustrating our top stories. bloomberg daybreak, with this nice graphic illustrating what perhaps fed officials are trying to do. we had recent comments from federal reserve vice chairman stanley fischer, indicating a 2016 rate hike is still under consideration. he says the u.s. economy is our to close to meeting fed goals and growth will gain momentum, so these comments are talking up the dollar. we had a host of fed officials last week talking dollar up -- talking up the dollar. the next tory, the boj -- story, the boj gover

mario draghi said i give you a window, i stick around with qe while you guys, the private government,s out. and private sector and government have not. jason: you could go back and say you are creating more hazard by the central bank by doing that, by continuing to kind of be an enabler, of doing nothing. zero is a pretty -- zero used to we do not know. negative interest rates, in my opinion -- i feel very strongly -- are a policy error. that is largely because it damages the very transmission mechanism, the banks, which you are depending upon to get the policy to work. i am very sympathetic to your view, but i also think that central bankers -- my own opinion, they have unlimited bullets, the blood -- they have unlimited bullets, the bullets are they are using are very ineffective. francine: if you are a central banker and people say he is boring, not thinking outside the box, and then they do and they make mistakes. it is a catch-22, to say the least. on, all i know is the elites seem to benefit and everybody else is saying, let's go, let's go. michael mckee, thank you so much. we h

lose the rating, does mario draghi have to sell the paper back to the market?ck to the market. they could not take more. portugal is very close to what analysts call the doom loop. in europe, banks tend to load up on sovereign debt. you can see how close portugal is to italy at the top of the doom loop. their country that is soaring. bad bank loans hurt the country's fiscal position. as that deteriorates, that hurts the position of the banks. it is a doom loop. add in the possibility banks may not be able to sell the collateral, and you have problems in a country with a .29% debt to gdp ratio it is estimated that if you saw a 15% fall in portuguese bond prices it would wipe out one quarter of portuguese bank capital. tom: i thought do loop was great when they opened for death cross. who came up with that phrase "doom loop?" francine: i like it. many times you do see vicious circles. portugal,ews is that i know it is significant, but is it a bigger problem because it is more systemic if something goes wrong? gilles: definitely. in the portuguese case, negotiatin

i don't see mario draghi, any of these, carney, giving up. they're not going to give up and i don't see high-quality sovereign coming out of the woodwork anymore. it's going into institutions. there's a huge need for it. and it's the currency of margins. as for gdp not being important, bill, you nailed it. if it was 6%, it's darn important and i guess, you know, jpmorgan chase second quarter net income $6.2 billion and jamie doesn't need growth. he is a great american. he is a great banker. i get it. but status quo's doing okay for jamie. and i think there's a little political whiff in there because only one of the candidates is pushing status quo. >> rick, is it possible that at some point to look back and say, you know, the gdp was better than reported which would be consistent with jpmorgan doing okay in this environment? >> you know, of course, i expect to see revisions but it's not revised. we currently have a two quarter average 1%. if everything goes great maybe closer to 2%. we've been there, done that! all the things jamie talked abo

central bankers have become our superheroes and if you're picturing janet yellen as wonder woman and mario draghi has spiderman, fine, but i'm not seeing that at all. >> make the case for the market here, jack. >> you know what? it's hard to follow that. i have to tell you. there's a lot to be said for what ken just said. look. you know, stocks turned into bonds. all of a sudden we have people chaszing yield. i call them yield hogs. bulls, bears and now people just buying stocks for yield. now, that is not the way a market should function. you know, one of the things that's really happened over the course of the last few months is even with the earnings in a recession and we have seen them year over year in a recession, we are looking at multiple expansi expansion, very counter intuitive and why people are scratching their heads about the market. but the one thing that worries me more than anything else, kelly, we are sitting on so much complacency across the board. when i look at the volatility index, it scares the living heck out of me. >> i get it based on the vix an i want to get to the other

well, the stencil in place with what karnry in did the same as whatever mario draghi does something,ellen, ka rhoda, everything seems to affect all the other global sovereigns. there was one, though, that was a bit minl and we will a goat that in a minute. two day of 10s, see how rates were affected, moved lower, hovering around the 1.50 mark, 1.36 is the low closing yield. we're not quite close to it yet but we are at the bottom of an established range. just couldn't close above 1.57 to 1.59, two day of bunds, low closing yields, shy of minus 20 basis points. you can see the effect there. very similar to 10s around minus 7. yields under 70 basis points, rather extensive move but orderly. one market that didn't participate with the 10-year jgb, zap fees government bonds. they already had their date with higher yield destindestiny. more of a position swap than a strategic change with regard to the outlook of negative interest rates by investors. if we look at the foreign exchange markets and we have to calibrate how your adoing on your bonds and stocks, the calibration, the ante into

if this was really a policy shift where we're going in the tightening situation mario draghi keeps drilling a hole to put more negative rates in, why wouldn't it stick? a chart on the 22nd you can see the bund pop. my point is that by that relationship coming back to normal along with investors trading at fixed income market, nobody's buying into this. and the markets are back to the way they were pretty much before friday. melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you, rick. >>> all right. let's get to dom chu who has a news alert. >> what we have right now we learned earlier today through a regulatory filing that target's jeff jones, their chief marketing officer, is stepping down from the company. but now we know where he may be going. according to reports citing sources from fortune and "the wall street journal," jones will take up the president role at ride sharing app and company uber. so uber tapping a seasoned marketing executive for a brick and mortar retailer to kind of head its operations, take it to the next level in terms of marketing schemes. overall, michelle, a very interesting mov

is clearly credit demand in the more medium-sized local businesses and one of the things that mario draghi credit transition mechanism going, and if it does not look like bank p&l are going to cooperate, he may have to look for an additional or different solution. jonathan: the big issue for drug he was to get the spreads down, averagewhat you're estimate in germany and in spain. if banks like commerzbank -- they have a message for brussels and frankfurt and they say you are telling us here that this does not help profitability, i'm not going to give you cheap rates if you are going to damage me on the other side. when did they start listening? lisa: i think we are very close to the inflection point. we have been approaching it with all the rhetoric around the world, both from populist politics, as well as policymakers saying it may be the end of the road appear monetary policy -- four pierpont it's our policy and we will -- f or. monetary policy -- for pure monetary policy. we will need more unified banking, more fiscal union's. s. alix: you are looking at the banking sector worldwide, wo

isn mario draghi said there a limited future here to limited interest rates.sappears -- literally, stuffing her mattress is a more viable option the negative interest rates. you have very limited future with negative interest rates, probably -1%. you take a look at banks, where are the non-value type of banks? u.s., a little in capital structure, bank referred with relatively high dividends and some will say that would be a monstrously high return. in this cycle, it's an acceptable return in the neighborhood of 6%. david: thank you both very much. good conversation. from european banks to the other top story -- time warner is topping profits and we will dig into the report and discuss their 10 percentinvestment in hulu next. this is bloomberg. alix: "bloomberg this is "bloomberg ." coming up tomorrow, bank of america ceo brian moynihan will join us in an exclusive interview. david: time won her second quarter earnings topped analyst estimates. thecompany also announced 10% stake in the hulu making it a stronger competitor for netflix and amazon. joini