stocks are better bid, waiting for mario draghi. mario draghi. be adjusted in what he has to say. where we standt in terms of the market this morning. let's start on the left-hand side. dropped by .4%. all trading higher this morning. the downside is quite interesting. this is the technology company. they make submarines, etc.. trading down by 5.3%. outlook of the fighters looks pretty good. i'm wondering why it is down as much as it is. missing across the board this morning. that bank is suffering this morning. down by 3.65. a little scandinavian theme this morning. business down by 2.47 as well. anyway, that is the top story. i would argue in terms of the financial sector, certainly weakening. something of a positive story of late. let's talk about central banks. the ecb not expected to announce the policy change. mario draghi will prep on whether september will see news of tapering. views are split on whether the president will if needed. carefully, strength would come locate the inflation talk at best target. kind of problem the fed had. join

conundrum presents a for mario draghi.pite being incredibly dovish after that ecb lack of action yesterday, we have a split on whether the ecb should be changing its quantitative easing language, deferring how and when on the next to towards normalization later this sheer. index, a basket of currencies, back to levels before qe started, in fact, slightly higher. the conundrum is if you look at inflation, it has crept up to being higher than that. , and indeed,enign perhaps, that does portend, tell you some dovish this in the european central bank. again, it is the idea of how you interpret what mario draghi said. some said we will get tightening as soon as summer is over, others saying they would not talk about that until autumn. bulls areuro-yen living another day, clearly not anytime soon moving away from , in facttary stance pushing back of that inflation target. we have the euro at that 23 month high, much more of a momentum trade, or the fear of missing out trade. let's get to the markets. china and hong kong setting

mario draghi's tone will be closely watched. he will attempt to balance optimism over a desire to move as slowly as possible when removing stimulus. ecb has forecasted to keep rates unchanged amidst an improving backdrop. the bank has been examining options around asset urges says. joining us is the central bank team leader who runs our coverage in brussels. layout the changes we could see in today's statement and in the news conference as well. probably the biggest focus will be if the ecb drops the easing bias on qe. it is a tricky one. at the moment they by 60 billion euros of debt through the end of the year. they said in the past they would go a long rate if needed. it sounds ready to increase the the or duration of purchases, monthly purchases, if the outlook deteriorates. they reserve the right to go from 60 billion to 80 billion if it wants to. if the ecb were to drop that and purchases,ide to its that would be taken as another step to the path on normalization. everyone waits until september, but ahead of september we h

say he wasn't dovish enough for them they go back to last month's speem speech in sintra where mario draghind of deflation. i think the voices from draghi's mouth and market reaction were different. the markets are anticipating the end of qe and what that means for the euro tl dollar weakness hit there as well but it was amazing how much the euro spiked yesterday. >>> i suppose there is reason for the euro to be optimistic about the fundamentals in europe give us your view in terms of how much optimism has improved since the election of president macron >> if you look at the fund flows which was reported out of the u.s. overnight, mass amount of money moving from the u.s. into europe the interesting thing is, look, again, if you remember from trump's election, it was the opposite we had europe on its back, still struggling to recover from seven years of crisis. suddenly the trump trade we had relation in the u.s., we'll be unshackled from regulation it could not be more different now. you have huge political risk in the u.s. signs that they will hardly get anything through congress. you hav

but a difficult for mario draghi to ignore. i have a chart that shows of the levels andat pre-qe2 that does have an in-flight -- impact on inflation. do you see and concern of what you're looking got with a tightening of financial conditions? lookaume menuet: when we at financial conditions, we do the average in the second quarter which is a standard deviation above, which is very good, the highest since 2011. when we look at what happened in july, we lost two decibel points . ecb's potential advice -- twice as fast. what you see in the euro is probably on the trade weight because it is on a tear. what we monitor is the trade weighted and is up 3%, 4%, 5%. .1 ofuld maybe shave off the 2018 and 2019. they will have inflation ballparks, the same as in june. by then, growth will have been revised up. the ecb is in a difficult position, they have to announce that qe's extended but cannot know how to announce the realities. where less in a situation things are good in terms of growth, a bit disappointing for inflation but surely it

don't skip off into mario draghi land. on.e what is going people becoming more bearish about the dollar? absolutely. years, ifive or six thought we were only in the early stages and people unwinding those dollar positions. it for the way from negative yields. senseonly really been march that you have started to see a reversal. we are at the peak, close to the peak of dollar positioning. there is a lot that can come out. anna: where did that take us next on the dollar? what are your expectations of forecast. s? hit the peak of the great dollar trend. i think we could be in a multiyear bank trend. the question is how will be central banks react? about evenings later, but it depends on how other central banks react. maybe we move back towards currency wars again. some of these stocks will realize they had an issue. the u.s. is going back. -- the u.s. is pulling back. the trade agenda on capitol hill. manus: we will begin to that more. simon, you stay with us. here is what you should be watching today. meetsemmanuel macron michel

are your headlines >>> the euro surges to a two-year high against the dollar after ecb president mario draghi hints at when the central bank could shift its policy away from easy money. >> we were unanimous in -- in setting no precise date for when to discuss changes we simply said that our discussions should take place in the fall >>> pay safe shares rocket to the top of the stoxx 600 after a consortium by blackstone bid for the payments firm. >>> mediterranean delight for vodafone the mobile operator calls in with forecast topping numbers on the back of a strong performance in italy and spain, sending shares higher. >>> dimming down on sales. philips lighting posts a 2% decline for its professional lighting arm, despite a beat on core earnings. the company's ceo tells cnbc that growth will return. >> we were declining by 2.4% for the full year of 2016, we have been declining by 1.3% for the first semester of 2017 we will go back to growth in the course of the second half of 2017 >>> it's a choppy start to trade today in europe with mixed colors across the board. some red, some green, rememb

how much will mario draghi reveal later today? we will discuss that next. ♪ manus: 1:47 a.m. city of new york. flat on the u.s. equities. draghiention when mario delivers his message to the market. let's get the business flash and hong kong with juliette saly standing by. good morning. juliette: sap has raised its outlook after a sales job. the german software firm projecting sales of 23.7 billion euros for the year. it announced a share buyback of about 500 million euros this year. we will speak to ceo filmic term it in his first interview of the day at 11:30 a.m. u.k. time. india has approved the sale of a ,take in the state run refinery according to a person with knowledge of the decision. the deal will make oil and natural gas corporation the number three refiner. oilplan to create an indian giant for consolidation and mergers was first outlined in february. bank of america is told investment bankers to stop working on transactions with one group amid growing concerns about it debt levels and rate structure. u.s. banks will -- joins other firms in steering clear of advisin

tighten what to expect from mario draghi i don't have particular ensight.ut i think the weakness of inflation in japan, in the u.s., globally has to give them cause for concern about moving aggressively towards tightening. it's a global phenomenon this weakness in inflation. >> robin, thank you very much for joining us robin harding, financi inghardi. >>> still ahead, one tech giant worn out from wearables. first, here is today's national weather forecast from bill karins >>> good thursday morning to you. the heat is the story. we're at the peak of the heat wave st. louis, omaha, kansas city, wichita and even philadelphia under heat warnings. heat advisories from bothen south to philadelphia and washington, d.c. just about everyone is in the heat wave. some of the hottest temperatures in the midwest once again. omaha feeling bike 1like 110 dallas, 107. new york city peak out at 100. d.c. on friday, feeling like 103. little rock, 105 by the time you get to saturday, relief in the northwest, but still hot tennessee through arkansas a few isolated severe storm

mario draghi has a fine line to walk. and tradersbeat could push yields too high. but appear too downer, and he will have to adjust expectations and policymakers will not announce any stimulus policy changes. draghi knows the effect his words can have on the market, having spun them into chaos last month. meanwhile, the european situation. the bank of japan has pushed 2%k the project for reaching inflation for a fifth time. stimulus will remain in place for a long time to come. let's bring in fabio balboni, an economist at hsbc, and gary greenberg. thank you for showing up on "surveillance." the boj is pretty much steady as she goes. how significant will be the words of mario draghi to figure out what the ecb can do without causing cover tantrums? >> in contrast with the ecb, the situation is quite similar. time we will not get a new inflation. but if we did have one, it would probably have to be another downward revision, because they would price it down and the euro is up. the economic background is not too dissimilar. boj, the ecb is stuck between a rock and a ha

mario draghi is talking about autumn.n you have core inflation at one point at 3%, how much will that change by the time we get to september or october? brian: i think it will be difficult. i do not see the inflation pressures anywhere across the globe. i wonder if some of these thoughts ares' perhaps more hope than reality. you should be seeing -- just look at the u.s., where the economy is a bit in front of what you see in the ecb. here in the u.s., where is the inflation? unemployment is low, the growth is better. not great, but better than you see in the eurozone. there is still a lack of inflation. i do not know where it is coming from. but it will be more of a problem, more difficult to find then the central -- than the central banks wish. david: how long should i build my portfolio? brian: i have no problem adding duration to portfolios. i see no scenario where we worry about long-term rates moving materially higher. they are not cheap, by any stretch. it would not be a call that it is cheap. i do not see where the

issue, did investors misjudged mario draghi's speech?> i think it was eloquently put. >> the words were confusing, to be honest. >> this was a titanic shift we haven't waiting for. >> i'm not sure the market misinterpreted it. there was a very clear shift relative to the last policy meeting. it was a dramatic tone. >> that a tightening is not really a tightening and i think the hope was, if you explain it that way, rental market will not get into -- >> i did not read the statement to be anywhere as near as bearish as the market was taking it. i think it was a signal from mario draghi that even if there support and tailwind, the central bank is still there. >> they need to get going early here. jonathan: soap was it eloquent or confusing? -- so, was it eloquent or confusing? boston, senior portfolio manager with the wells fargo asset management. let's get to the quote itself. these are the words that seem to move markets. the ecb four in portugal. as the economy continues to recover, the policy stance will become more cooperative and the

we will see if mario draghi does that tomorrow. so much to danny blanchflower, dartmouth economics professor. tune in tomorrow when we will bring you live coverage of the ecb decision and of president mario draghi's news conference following the announcement of that decision. julie. julie: will animal planet be joining hd tv? scripps networks gets wooed by discovery communications at viacom. how likely are these deals to succeed and which one will succeed? more details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ live from london and new york, i am nejra cehic. julie: can i am julie hyman. this is the "european close" on bloomberg markets. discovery communications and viacom are in several talks to combine with the $8.7 million scripps network interactive. as the pressure builds for cable companies and a challenging fast changing industry, will this be the deal for success and which one will be the deal for success? let's bring in tim nollen for more. tim, you have all these suitors going after scripps. do either of these companies and make sense?

mario draghi walks a tightrope as the ecb president looks to shift away from easy money without royaling markets >>> ab bpob posts a weaker than expected second quarter. >>> deutsche telekom adds more than 1 million customers in the latest quarter >> we've been fortunate in the first quarter again following a good streak of acquisitions last year we extend with a disciplined approach our portfolio >>> we've seen a broader and higher open in europe with the stoxx 600 up over a third of a percent. taking its lead from more record closes in the u.s. overnight and a raft of earnings results are out today. on the whole broadly positive which has signaled the market opening higher you can see that reflected in the key movers in the markets today. let's look and see how the individual bourses are shaping up the xetra dax is in the lead, up 0.75 cac 40 up over a half percent. the ftse 100 up over 0.40% negative statements out of easyjet, yes, it managed to deliver higher unit revenue, but the issue is that there is overcapacity in the sector and it gave a bearish outlook for what's ahead let's l

it's mainly about what mario draghi said yesterday.on over washington. bring yound to up-to-date on washington, our first word news, here is taylor riggs. taylor: there are multiple reports that some of president trump's lawyers are trying to undercut robert mueller who is investigating ties between the trump campaign and russia. the lawyers are building the conflictsmueller has of interest and the new york times is looking for reasons to get mueller fired or have someone in his team reprised -- recused. russia and iran both threaten u.s. interest while they pursue terms in syria. mike pompeo said the russia were a -- want a warm water naval port there. ended two years of speculation and agree to another bailout for greece. worthpproved a new loan as much as $1.8 billion. that is contingent on eurozone countries providing greece with debt relief. the u.k. reportedly will except to the free market -- free movement of the e.u. for up to four years after brexit. that would be a shift in tone for prime minister theresa may. she has made re

mario draghi, destination and persistence -- procrastination and persistence.e survived both the bank of japan and the open but the politics are back squarely on the agenda as the extension into donald trump's business affairs runs wider and broader than perhaps we originally anticipated. trumpt extent do politics the dollar? you go slightly softer in the asia equity session. the deputy governor said, you have gone far too ahead of yourself in terms of potential rate cuts. the aussie dollar came back to earth. deputy governor guide to bob basically said -- the deputy governor basically said the probability of a rate hike in february slips from 46% to 33%. the market has reevaluated and readjusted the scenario. , up too absolutely dealt 16.51. essentially, traders needed something more aggressive than a mild rebuke. some attention to fx, some attention to currency has been paid. they want something more aggressive in the sidelines before they sell that particular market. abm says their short-term target is 117. keep an eye on the commodity complex. up 1/8 of 1%.

an apparent about-face from ecb president mario draghi sent traders rambling in recent weeks. aghi said the eurozone was not generating enough inflation but recently took a more hawkish tone. markets now pricing into 2018 rate hikes. with us to break the recent action down, the senior european bank tech that joins us over the phone from geneva. thank you very much for joining us. where do you see market expectations for the ecb versus how you interpret draghi? has the market.net right? significante a pricing, for sure. but the question is if markets were complacent ahead and before this speech. i think there was a bit of complacency and may be a bit of wait and see attitude before the ecb changes forward guidance. board guidance from central similar particular is to a state driver. if and when it changes, it may trigger some reaction and volatility spikes. i don't think the market is completely off track and inconsistent with what the ecb has been saying. sooner or later, it will be a rate hike. indeed move the curve. been a storyways going on at the same time. anything that is

it confirms mario draghi said prediction -- it confirms mario draghi's prediction.elf-sustaining with trends. setting us up for the september 7 meeting. what does that mean? will they made -- will they wait until october to taper on qe? those of the decisions to be made in a few months. the final charges the euro after rising for a third straight week, best run since -- heading for a fifth straight monthly gain since 2013. six month ago, peter navarro, donald trump's trade adviser, says the euro is grossly undervalued. still 14% below its fair value against the dollar according to the purchasing power parity model. 117. 50 model. highs not seen since january 2015. vonnie: fascinating. we will be speaking with mark chandler 30 minutes past the hour. we will definitely dig into that data. to the big corporate news. julie hyman mentioned earlier, scripps says yes to discovery. charter says no to sprint. forovery is by scripps $11.9 billion, creating a cable giant, but charter is not interested in a deal with sprint. sprint's owner is undeterred. lots to discuss. foring

mario draghi's press conference in the peripheries, when you look at fixed income, you are seeing 10 year yields move lower. spain, we are down about eight basis points. the 10-year bund yield down by about one basis points area speaking of euro, this is the intraday chart on euro-dollar. we are up .5. we have seen it spiked higher and initially move lower after the decision but moved higher during mario draghi's press conference. i wanted to look at the euro-yen because i was watching this this morning in terms of a key technical level, the 200 weekly moving average, questions on whether the euro-yen would cross that. it does not look like it has done it. vonnie: thank you for that. the euro climbing as ecb president mario draghi sets the bank needs to be persistent, patient and prudent. here's what he told reporters in frankfurt. ofa very substantial degree monetary accommodation is needed for underlying inflation pressures to gradually build up in support headline inflation development in the medium term. vonnie: for more analysis, let's bring in richard jones, fx and break strate

>> in june, mario draghi already changed the communication. mario draghi will stick to the current tone of communication. also, it depends on the development of inflation in the euro area and the many people in the ecb, they're going to see over there as well if the inflation is very slow to improve. i think in the immediate future, the ecb might be fairly limited for the boj. it all depends on development over there. kathleen: the whole world is trying to boost inflation, tough right now. bank of japan press conference, governor kuroda will take questions for at least an hour. what is the most important question a governor -- a reporter could ask? him think they should ask why the boj thinks inflation is so low. i think this is the fundamental -- in my view, there are elements this -- besides the economy itself. it is interesting to know how the boj thinks about no inflation. kathleen: as i said, it is a problem all central banks seem to be struggling with right now. kazuo momma, thank you very much for joining us. oxecutive economist at mizu

let's get back to mario draghi, you mentioned the ecb.g maybe more hawkish than the markets expect, or is he stuck on the of mode? is he accommodative for the rest of his life? sonja: certainly compared to janet yellen, mario draghi is sometimes good for a surprise. the comments he made a few weeks ago caught the markets by surprise. the ecb did attempt afterwards to rein in the market to do some damage control, but i am sure he didn't say what he said by accident. he is prepared -- or is preparing the market for a more restrictive course of action in the long run. but again, mario draghi is someone who is willing to surprise investors, to go out on a limb without necessarily having consulted of -- consulting fellow ecb members. the german curve is steepening up, the japanese curve is flattening. makes you look at what is happening with the funding currency story and what impact it will haven't the euro. -- have into the euro. you expect the german curve to steepen further and what will the impact be? sonja: the yield has been rising quic

talk to me about appeared mario draghi has had a lot to say. not think we should expect very much. at the margin, i think he will continue to say just, hint, whatever word, that they are beginning to quote unquote, drain the punch bowl. they are not removing it but the era of superlow interest rates and super high degrees of central bank stimulus is coming to an end. we are seeing an indian in the united states, canada, perhaps great britain. not so much in the ecb quite yet, but i think he is preparing the markets for an eventual move that reduces the degree of stimulus that the ecb provides. jonathan: you talk about complacency around the federal reserve, i cannot understand the amount of nervousness around the ecb. you get a scheduled speech and the market moves on it because they are expecting something flagged ahead of the september meeting. that is how nervous they are about the next move, is a justified? >> high sensitivity. i think for the ecb, the trouble is going to be to try to communicate a hawkish message without -- the market. we

five years ago today mario draghi pledged to do whatever it takes to save the euro. he same time, it looked like fundamental flaws would rip it apart. draghi predicted fundamental negative rates would return. now, half a decade later normalization is finally being talked about as a realistic option. still with us, alberto gallo head of global macroeconomic strategies at algebris. how much of a pat on the back is draghi due five yeraars on? when it comes to structural reforms, which he is not in control of, the evidence is very clear to see. >> there is a lot more to do in the eurozone. however, the skeptics have been proven wrong many times. until a few months ago, europe was seen as -- the eurozone, as something economically not viable. the reality is, with the current political set up with president macron in france and chancellor merkel likely to be reelected, this risk of a break up is gone. and actually, brexit, which was supposed to free the uk.k. of an economic corpse has strengthened the eurozone. the eu rrozone is carrying the u.k. 's growth. if qe has helped

i' i'm sure mario draghi has never had that mustard. serious note, how much do we care about the ecb? the ecb is imported, but it's all about the fed. >> i actually think in the coming months, the ecb is the central bank with the greatest influence over markets. for a long time we have seen europe really struggle to gain markson with question over the existence of the currency, let alone its prosperity. now, europe's feature does look fantastic and you have the added issue of the potential constraint in the number of bunds they cabn buy because they will bounce up againstcurrency,s prosperity. now, europe's their limit. really, the global focus during the next couple months will be very much on what mr. draghi says. i think we lean on the side of being dovish this meeting. there is a many questions on their policy. are they going to do a smooth, preannounced taper? with a step down from 80 to 60, which is not a taper at all. and then what about the interest rates? when do we get rid of negative interest rates? does this happen in 1 incr

mario draghi is going on his road trip to jackson hole.time he was there, he was talking about the lack of inflation expectations. he could not see them at all on the horizons. he did not consult the governing councils and we had to eat. three years later, he is going to jackson hole. has it tapered or changed in every way? what would it do to the spread? that question for the market because the ecb meets with them. in kits view up to 120. this is the point, here is where we left. here is brexit, here is the great british drop. a rate rise would do very little to move cable higher. the dynamic for cable, as you can see, is how much risk is already priced into this market and where is the next level that we go to on the pound? the gilt yields, we are waiting for those two print. i will leave that with you, guy. just a slight tip higher. guy: stories happening within the sectors this morning. some real divergence, particularly with the pharma sector. i've set it up for index points. similar story with the making sector. have rochede, you bid

what was your key takeaway from what mario draghi said? would imagine mario draghi was referring to the litmus test that will come in the autumn on the reversal of andqe in the u.s. first, followed by the same kind of policy in europe. aremmed was saying we goldilocks, at least in the u.s., with steady growth. this growth has been spilling and some other parts of the world a little bit. a little bit in china and japan. it seems the fundamentals are slowly improving for the global economy, but the big elephant in the room is this massive monetary stimulus that has been injected in the economy for a decade now. reverse this stimulus is anybody's guess, because we are in uncharted territory. >> last week, mario draghi's response to the question, are we there yet, is we are not there yet. he is out for the next couple of weeks. last time -- next time we will hear from him is after the summer break. are we going to hear a message about patients? -- patience? or something more meaningful? fabio: i don't think so. the ecb is an institution that i

medicationform of versus what mario draghi might be reaching for. the euro dipped back ever so slightly this morning, a cap from the options market. for the last ecb meeting to this one, you have a rally of over 2.5%. iron ore, i thought it looks good. this is not what we want to tell you about. myth that, out a just stand in front of it. -- how to wipe out a mistake. these are moments of reality tv. anna: let's get the first word news with juliette saly. juliette: in the u.s., the white house has confirmed that president trump met that a mere pollutant -- met with vladimir putin a second time, donald trump last out pointing out that he was the victim of a fake news story. top a dinner arranged for 20 members was made to look sinister. policymakers said to be drawn up plans for after the summer break , according to euro area officials familiar with the matter. heldymakers have not yet from the discussions on the analysis doesn't mean a stimulus changes in. ecb spokesman declined to comment. the imf on they amount of debt the country can hold, accord

it is five years to the day since mario draghi said that the euro is like a bumblebee.e do not know why but it is flying. let's have a look at the commodity complex. copper is on a ripper. up 4% is where we are at the moment in shanghai. standardhat, that is -- the standard deviation move is flashing green on the gmm. you are above the two-year high on the london market, you're looking at hedge funds boosting their copper bit to a 20 year high. the daily prophet said china had has had -- has had its crash. rising, rising on aussie and south korea. copper is the standout flashing symbol on the gmm. juliette saly has your first word news. thank you. japan's former top currency official has said the central bank should be more flexible and consider following the u.s. and europe by normalizing monetary policy. he warns that bank of japan may leave itself without room for policy reform and the event of another financial crisis. the boj 70 governor said policymakers need to continue monetary stimulus to achieve their 2% inflation target as soon as possible. the european commi

let's go back to what for mario draghi has to do. later we will have to reduce accommodation. how can you say anything of any interest even when it's the most obvious thing? >> he's trapped to a certain degree. bund yields are close to zero. to do withis has market positioning. a lot of this has to do with investor expectations which i would argue have been somewhat misaligned. jonathan: we are set up for disappointment in the european equity market. there is a huge consensus going into europe at the moment. anyone who sits around this table, we want to buy europe. how disappointed are they going to be? -european earnings are fine for this year. think european earnings are fine for this year. i think europe is a bit of a value trap. to 20% discounts. it's just a mirage of a u.s. equity market for health care and tech. david: -- alix: lagging behind other countries, does that mean you don't see synchronized global recovery? >> there are better ways to play it. got earnings which are almost as depressed. recovering much stronger. more

talk to me about it and what you are expect in because not many expecting much, but mario draghi haso say. jim: i do not think we should expect very much. i think he will continue to suggest, hits, whatever word we want to use, that they are beginning to train the punch bowl. it, but the area of superlow interest rates and high degrees of central bank stimulus is coming to an end. we are seeing it ending in the united states, canada, perhaps in britain. not so much in the ecb quite yet, but i think he is preparing the markets for an eventual move that reduces the degree of stimulus that the ecb provides. jonathan: you talk about complacency around the federal reserve, i cannot understand the amount of nervousness around the ecb. you get a scheduled speech and -- speech cash from president mario draghi at jackson hole and the market moves on it because they are expecting something flagged ahead of the september meeting. that is how nervous people are about the next move from the ecb. is a justified? >> hypersensitivity is what we call it. i think for the ecb, the trouble is going to b

markets havend reacted very strongly to a speech by mario draghi yesterday.uro depreciated, bond yields have gone -- all of this chris putting the danger the progress that the ecb is doing. it was sort of a message control. we are saying that mario draghi is not signaling any imminent tapering. >> mark carney now saying the bank of england may need to begin raising rates. earlier, week ago, he suggested he was not in that camp. >> his, suggested august 3 will be a tricky meeting. i'm not sure you will get a rate hike. we are getting close to that point where trade up between tolerating higher inflation may not be worth it anymore. >> rupert murdoch's 21st century fox inches closer to securing sky. the first we learned from the u.k. government there were a client to refer them to a regulator and then we heard from the regulator that they see no concern. is mr. murdoch happy man for the news out of the u.k. today? >> it is really interesting to see the sky shares surge. this is not the worst case an era for fox. the worst case. said -- whaty is the government h

mario draghi has told us some of the risks have passed and some reflationary risks have emerged.saying it is as good as they can deliver. governments will have to do the rest and deliver structural reforms. they will have to raise potential growth and that is where you get higher rates. i think we will get tape rings .etween -- taperings francine: what does that mean for europe? viraj: we are quite comfortable with the euro dollar at 1.1 five. it was a cap on how far interest rates can move. once you have that sort of ,nitial correction or overshoot then you have to factor on the factors that drive the currency. potentially seeing one put in 20 next year, that seems about fair. francine: what could change that? are you waiting for structural reforms? viraj: it has to be another layer of reflation pressures in the eurozone, potential recovery in the eurozone, potentially tax reform in the u.s. could be a game changer for the eurodollar. sides.een risks on both francine: are you looking for complete structural reform to decide what happens next to inflation? ores of the german elec

federal reserve seems to be moving towards a tightening policy, mario draghi not giving an inch.pectation out there that perhaps in september they'll announce what they'll do after december, 2017, when their qe is supposed to run out. right now he is saying it is full steam ahead on qe and maintaining this bias towards essentially doing more if the situation turns badly for them not saying, hey, we'd do less if it goes good so it's a symmetrical bias they're calling it. >>> when we come back, folks, appear 'le is teaming up with a high-end designer for some new beats headphones. >>> plus jim cramer will join us chge from the new york stock exan "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ if you could book a flight, then add a hotel, or car, or activity in one place and save, where would you go? ♪ expedia. >>> welcome back looking for or at least interested in a new gig. the former yahoo! ceo telling business insider she wants another ceo role as far as the rumors that she's in the running to fill the vacant chief executive spot at uber she would not comment on whether or not she wanted to

mario draghi's words are not enough to discourage traders.ation to transactions involving the president's businesses. the drama and d.c. does not dent the bullish attitude on wall street. microsoft shows its turnaround plan is back on track. from new york city, good morning . friday, july 21. david westin is off today. the opening bell is still 30 minutes away. futures looking a little soft, down 1/10 of 1%. no drama here. we are driving towards a third straight week of gains. 30 minutes away from the final day of training. ing.rad euro looking strong i guess they weak u.s. dollar. alix: here are some of the earnings reports we want to pay attention to. ge down almost 4% in premarket. was up over 1% but now lower. a continuing trend with g.,e. cash flow is key. it actually rose $1.5 billion. that was a key point for activists in the stock. that was a big number on the positive side for g.e. it did fall when i pointed out pricing pressure. that is a worry spot going forward. they are backed by about 2%. staying with earnings, flat on the morni

the storyuro has been since mario draghi spoke, and that has picked up also on dollar weakness.rkets, yields coming down, particularly that 10 year yield, germany down one basis point. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from london and new york. close. european nejra: equities finishing up the day. let's take to the action today. ecb day, if you look at the queckty, you see a bit of mixed picture here. euro grinding higher. above 116. we're up more than one percent euro. sterling down for a fourth day, up by .2 of a percent. below 130. retail sales data gave a brief lift but didn't last long. g10 currency declining against the dollar now. the fixed income space you yields move lower. the ten year bond yield down about one bases points. moves in the periphery. move in spain and italy too. periphery spread tightening the ecb decision and the press conference. higher. keeping close eye on oil. stock 600to the theory. it's lower. we are seeing gains earlier. we turned into negative territory now. bit of mixed picture when it comes to distribution. commodity producers are under perfor

ecb president mario draghi will attend the annual symposium in jackson hole.s opens the possibility he could send a message on the bond rogue ramp as the euro era becomes less reliant on stimulus. the gathering will take place in august, less than two weeks before draghi convenes the meeting of the governing council in frankfurt. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . it's a little bit more of a mixed session in asia today, that noting the regional index up for the fifth consecutive session on track for its --ongest session and smart since march. india has come off those record highs that it reached yesterday and you are seeing some coming through in japan up 2/10 of 1%. hong kong looking flat but holding on to the two-year high. much, janet yellen, we are continuing with the rally across asian markets. it is india reporting season, a couple companies coming through. the revenue also raising its sales, sending his share price higher. we h

not as far as when mario draghi spoke last week. it, you will see the 10-year german bund, the benchmark germany has broken out of a range held since beginning of 2016. pointing reporters out, to really signal there is a new bear market that will go and go, they yields have to double from where it is. still, an interesting move, maybe it portends something else. draghi spoke at the conference, the ecb forum. he said deflation is over, we're looking ahead to reflation. said, they will move sooner or later to start removing bonds. buying bonds, remove the stimulus. the ecb minutes were out earlier. they suggested they discussed easing bias, but they were not ready to move. the chief economist for the ecb was speaking after the minutes came out. he talked about patients on policy. that is what mario draghi also said, saying we have to be patient to make sure policy is working, which does not suggest removing the stimulus or changing the bias. they say the exit doors opening and they are concerned the ecb has to move. they do not want t

your policymakers looking for more clarity for mario draghi.heckmate -- the chipmaker after the bell. let's get a check on markets. >> we have records from the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. now nine days in a row. record highs second is -- for the second day in a row. shares are down sharply. this is an interesting way to look at it. it is a one-year chart. the blue lines represent record highs. we have had tons of simultaneous record highs for the major averages. today the dow is not hitting a record high. >> take a look at what is happening sector was for the s&p 500. way to see what is happening. energy, let's take a look at what is happening with oil trading higher on the day up 1.6% after a bullish department of energy report. bigger than expected estimated for both. gasoline along with inventories, helping a wide spectrum of the energy complex. the second-best sector i did not point out was materials. these are known as fertilizers. the green is rallying today. when theymay think are higher, there will be more fertilizer. a bit of a rally there

this is to million by mario draghi's word.is tandem on many days, especially when european yields have risen quite substantially. if you just take june as an example, from 2:00 in the morning when the german market on -- open the taliban :00 a.m., treasury -- they mocked step. that will likely continued. there were be a lot of focus on the fed with this testimony, but beyond that, we are likely to see mariodriver of treasuries here. >> what else are you looking for in the second half of the year? it's interesting, this idea that mario draghi is calling the shots, boone is in the u.s. -- moving together. what else really has your attention at the moment? other thing is what is going on with economic data. mark's been a question about whether or not his is -- it is exhilarating. if you look at the labor market, you see we had week job numbers for a couple months, and now we have better job numbers. when you look at the aggregate paycheck of the entire u.s. economy, it's growing quite a nice pace, accelerating. that's something w

reacteduro markets have strongly to a speech by mario draghi yesterday. ut in danger the progress the ecb has made and its monetary policy. draghi is an signaling anything imminent here. anchor: now the bank of england may need to begin raising rates. only a week ago, he suggested he wasn't in that camp. >>'s comments today suggests that august 3 is going to be quite a tricky meeting -- his suggests that august 3 is going to be quite a tricky meeting. ♪ anchor: rupert murdoch's 21st century fox inches a little closer to securing sky and the u.k.. from the first record of the u.k. government, they were prepared to refer to the regulator. -- as mr. murdock had the man out of the news from the u.k. today? >> i think shares are surging because this isn't the worst case scenario for fox with its proposed takeover of sky. the worst-case scenario would of been an outright rejection. with the government has done today is said they are planning to review this -- to refer this for an additional regulatory review, which could take another six months, but it is defini

goodness me returning to capitol hill yesterday absolutely dramatic what a man five years ago today, mario draghi said the ecb was, quote, ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. let's take a look. so june 2014, european central bank actually cut interest rates below zero to stimulate the economy apparently and that is the point. is it still stimulating the economy? we'll discuss. two months later draghi hinted at a policy shift. after the inflation rate fell below zero for the first time since the financial crisis, the ecb announced the beginning of quantitative easing, that was january 2015 the program extended to corporate bonds the following march. but is the end of qe now approaching? are there people out there, i know there are people out there, possibly northern europeans who think there are terrible things handling because of happening because of qe. after draghi's somewhat hawkish speech this year, euro hit a 12 month high markets took it as qe was coming to an end. and emha he will have a second speech at jackson hole next month. people are getting ready for fresh ecb moves.

michael: a couple of weeks ago mario draghi gave a speech that change the bond market. pering. there is a feeling that draghi will not come out and say the date this time, but he may say there is announcement -- there is an announcement of september. they are trying to avoid a taper tantrum like the fed got when it announced it would start thinking about tapering. they will give us a more hands on that in the markets will be on. jonathan: i want to roa phrase from a colleague. i want to talk but something that is not happening this week. there will be no fed speak. for is usually a good thing a lot of people, but given the data recently, what kind of void does that open up? michael: in this case, probably not a whole lot. in this case they extended the blackout period. this is a non-press conference meeting. nobody expected them to do anything anyway. there may be a feeling they might announce when they will start to taper on the balance sheet, but nobody is guaranteeing that. there is the feeling there would not be a whole lot of news out of this, so if we do not hear f

how much it costs mario draghi to save the euro. bloomberg. ♪ ♪ this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's check on your markets. the market -- mark barton have the latest. mark: the stoxx 600 has to rise at least .2 8% to avoid falling for a second straight month. if it does, if the first time it happened since october last year. it fell for the second straight week. worse stocks, health care. worst month since october. , biggest hsbc jumping gain in a month. second quarter profit beating estimates. the chief executive boosting revenue trending said it will spend up to $2 billion buying back stock. buy ratings. have that is the raising their out of five for unlisted shares. the most positive view since april last year. first buyback, second by back, third by back. this is a fantastic chart. since 2011. the gauge has fallen 9% since reaching that record in january. it is been driven by that -- it has been driven by that lackluster -- indecision in washington. dollar has dropped 30.30, this is the relative strength index. when you go ba

mario draghi comes out, most people on this floor said he will be dovish they will be long the dollarort the euro because euro should go down if he's dovish, so they were dovish, they were long the dollar and they were wrong. that's the way it works. now does that make sense not necessarily, but that's why i call it the ebi. there used to be a time when the market was in control, and we could argue it's been a long topic. i don't think anybody said it better than jim grant, mr. bond himself yesterday, radical monetary policy begets more radical monetary policy. it's salting i think mario draghi, ben bernanke and janet yellen said their mission is imposition and tom cruise is nowhere to be found. that's the reality of what's going on you can trade the market and you can try to trade the signals, but sometimes it's just better to go along, which brings me to the next topic for the most part markets in many ways are becoming like public utilities, okay central banks need more radical policy for the exact reason that dovish long was wrong. it's not about taking policy off, it's about the

potentially the first to actually try to balance the balancing sheet act and try to taper but mario draghiedly is right in that cue as well, he gets to watch what goes on and i'll tell you, that's a very important seat he may have the best seat because quite frankly, think about mario draghi's hand right now, okay, he's got a buffet table of securities that he's pretty much gobbled through. he's like a hungry pacman. pretty much most of the securities are eaten up already. so if he wants to keep doing this and many believe, no matter what he says, especially considering where his seat is, that they're going to watch what happens to our markets when we get specificity on specifics, specifics from janet yellen and the program, and he will then make a decision. most people i talk to don't think he's going to stop or even taper significantly, which augers the next question, what buffet table is going to replace the current buffet table and in that regard, maybe we should think bank of japan and all of the things they've purchased so while it all seems pretty clear right now, i really do think

in september or october, mario draghi will lay out the tapering plan. if you have an eye on germany, all-time highs. 6%dit growth is up 5%, year-over-year and is that consistent with the nominate the -- nominal bond yield? the best correlation with the eurozone banks has been a long the end of the current curve. germanyear bonds in moves up, european banks will perform like they always do. jonathan: germany has been ok for a while. due faces existential threats. -- deutsche bank faces existential threats. is there a better place and that eurozone for the bank recovery story outside of germany? the banking sector certainly has not been doing better. mislav matejka: our out of view is spain. past six to 12 months and remains the top stories. the mpl's are slowing does significantly and the growth at 3%. the banks have consolidated. spain is number one and then a little bit of italy because it is so cheap. spain is the top one per alix: great stuff. mislav matejka of jpmorgan and you are sticking with us. the headline out of twitter what is calling shares