these are comments from mario draghi speaking any moment now in sintra. joining us on the line is michael price, and peter seller also joins us in london. this has been a bad day for asian equities u.s. futures pointing well down. is this all because of mr. tru trump? >> looks like it we were talking about a trade war risk two, three weeks ago, now we're in a trade war we've seen this move from january to march to now following the disastrous g7 meeting, and overnight talking about the chinese trade with the u.s. just in excess of 500 billion. trump said there's potential tariffs of nearly 400 billion of tha that >> in singapore i've seen the yen pretty significantly stronger against the u.s. dollar is that should be a safe haven from where you sit >> i suppose the bigger question is that. many banks have always referred to these trade tensions and all the rhetoric coming out of the trump administration as just noise. if this noise is turn fling inta trade war, we have a strong market impact. >> you're seeing the dollar, euro and sterling all significantl

this is something that was not addressed in the speech by mario draghi appeared -- mario draghi.ra: up next, trading blows, president trump targets tariffs on $230 in chinese imports, live in beijing with the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪ is "bloomberg surveillance." beijing has out to retaliate on president trump's tariffs on $200 billion of chinese imports. it deepens the trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies and triggers a global setup of risky assets and a flight to havens. summers said the psychological effects of a trade war could be more important than the real effects. is not likely to be large enough to have direct effects damaging the economy but it the psychological effect of facts and uncertainty and that could be serious. we are getting later in the cycle of escalation. nejra: joining us now is our china correspondent tom mackenzie. how does china plan to respond to this latest tariff salvo from donald trump? it has limited options compared to the u.s. when it comes to tariffs. tom: the scales are tilted in the u.s. favor when it comes to tariffs bec

presumably, mario draghi is concerned that this won't last. he also said significant stimulus is still needed. that is why this is such a dovish exit. the ecb removing stimulus, the fed had a hike and the bank of japan looking into that. more of the same there. it and more divergence than ever. two big central-bank engines moving toward the left stimulus. the boj cannot move. everybody said they will hold policies. we are looking close up at the fact that here is the main number for the boj. take food prices from cpi. up april policy meeting was 1% and down to 0.7%. that is why they can't do anything. it needed there is a silver lining in this cloud. the more the policies diverge, this could weaken the yen. it could boost japanese exports. you helped pull out of that. i think it will be so interesting at the press conference, what kind of explaining governor kuroda has to say about that chart. the words will matter a lot. >> it is weakening and we're seeing further weakening right now in the japanese trading session. now let's get to the first

let's listen to mario draghi.d i are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. governorike to thank rest newson for her kind of hospitality and expressing gratitude to her staff for the excellent organization of today's meeting of the governing council. we will now report on the outcome of our meeting. since the start of our asset purchase program in january 2015, the governing council has purchasessset conditional on the extent of progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation to levels below, but close to 2% in the medium-term. council,e governing under careful review of the progress made, also taking into account the latest projections measures wage pressures and uncertainties surrounding the inflation outlook. assessment of this from the governing council concluded that progress towards a sustained adjustment in inflation has been substantial so far. that inflation expectations are well anchored. continuing degree of monetary accommodations provide grounds to be confident that the

mario draghi hurting the first -- mario draghi hearing the first talks today, we don't know when we willthe one thing traders today want to hear about. raising, the fed interest rates yesterday for the second time this year, signaling two more hikes in 2018. the chairman jay powell stressed the health of the u.s. economy. >> the main takeaway is the economy is doing well. most people who want to find jobs are finding them. unemployment and inflation are low. interest-rate have been low for some years while the economy has been recovering from the financial crisis. francine: that was the fed chair jay powell. the focus falls on whether the ecb will set out a roadmap for the end of easing today or wait until next month. for the latest, matt miller. june or july? economists are split as to whether they will do it now. they have good wage growth numbers. 1.9% wage inflation in the eu for first quarter compared to last year. that is strong. they are noted, they are seeing convergence. similar data out of peripheral countries like spain, as germany. we can data as far as things like industrial

draghi hear from mario ant l th infmation you have been craving.his is bloomberg. ♪ it's 20 pastrning, eight here in riga, latvia, where i'm standing by for the ecb meeting. is when: 20 in the afternoon in singapore. that's go there for the business flash with juliette saly. has made itscast offer, saying the offr valu fox your payment assets at 60 got billion dollars. that tops the previous bid from disney and sets up a bidding war for rupert murdoch's empire. the bid represents a 19% premium over the disney offer. pay a one will billion euro fine imposed by german prosecutors for cheating diesel emission regulations. closes one chapter in the three-year-old crisis even as new developments arise. the world's biggest carmaker says it will have a positive impact on other proceedings in europe. still faces legal action in more than 50 countries. rolls-royce is said it -- is set to be cutting for thousand jobs trying to simplify its business and boost profit margins. it would bring the total number of jobs eliminated to 10,000 e 2015. rolls-royce says

later this morning, ecb president mario draghi delivers a speech in sentra.ill we get more hints about the central bank's policy? he moved markets last week. you can see that live on bloomberg at 9:00 a.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back everybody, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." it is 1:19 in the afternoon in singapore. asia-pacific under pressure. you see the shanghai composite down by 3.1%. this market playing catch-up because they were closed yesterday. the tradefactoring in talk between trump and china. >> teslas elon musk says a disgruntled employee broken to the company's manufacturing operating system and sent highly sensitive data to unknown third parties. in a memo, he says the worker damaging extensive sabotage. an employee who asked not to be identified claims he got the mount. pick agen the fail to leader for a dowdy unit after a six-hour meeting. it comes after the arrest of longtime ceo rupert stadler. a company spokesman failed to elaborate. his arrest in the scandal is the first among vw group's board members. merca

and what we heard from mario draghi.'s get the bloomberg first word news update with the juliette saly in singapore. juliette: the bank of japan has lifted monetary policy -- left monetary policy unchanged and downgraded its assessment of inflation. it maintained the settings on its yield curve control program and asset purchases. the central bank now sees the consumer price index in a range of 0.5%-1%. fallen behind if the global peers in what has become a very busy week percent of banks. china home prices have risen. no home prices in the 70 cities gained 0.8% from one month earlier. that compared with a 0.57% increase in april. the imf has warned that u.s. tax cuts and spending hikes are increasing reason -- risk to the global economy. thedirector conceded that trump administration has not always agreed with its view of the american economy. >> it was clear that he regards our medium-term outlook as to pessimistic. -- too pessimistic. frankly, i hope he is right, and we are wrong. it would be good news for the u.s. an

geraldine, if you look at what mario draghi was saying, it could coincide. ould coincide with the successor of draghi having to do it. should that make markets worry? no, i think what is more likely to move in the interim, because the ecb is anchored for a long time and it would take a big hurdle to move more hawkish or more dovish. so the changes should be looked at away from the eurozone, and most likely from the fed. boj is also in a touch and go situation. looking at global developments and if the fed can still remain sanguine or not have an impact on interest rate differentials. geraldine, will you be buying any periphery bonds? i don't know if spain or italy are attractive because of the risk. despite the fact that yields have been going up, pimco is not recommending adding to the periphery currently. our stance remains because of all of this political and the fact that this is clearly having an impact on economic indicators and when things go wrong in europe, there is very little room for maneuver. that makes us on easy on the periphery in general. do

yvonne: what do you think is the biggest concern for mario draghi? had seen was due to oil prices. italy or the trade uncertainties? draghi's biggest concern is how does he, you know, essentially restock, you know, the ecb's armory for when the eurozone faces its next potential recession? that's why they are essentially phasing out quantitative eating and -- easing and a roadmap to borrowing costs. they want to resupply the quiver so that in a few years, you know, if and when, presumably when, the eurozone is facing another recession, they have enough firepower to act, you know, decisively. but he wants to be very careful in how he calibrates, you know, the easing back, the normalization in policy to prevent wider disruption, so essentially, it's a tough task, and certainly come overnight, market players applauded how he performed. ,vonne: thank you, chris anstey joining us from tokyo. of course, we have to shift the focus to japan. no changes expected. further out of's that with the fed and the ecb. investors will be keeping an eye road is buyinghe

it is quite likely mario draghi will keep his options open. given the delicate situation in italy and the slow down in data. keep buyingot assets at the rate it has been,s doing ok. the soft touch is a bit more anticipated, but the underlying demand is decent. side, the ecb is hitting its limits in terms of how many assets it keeps buying. the more important decisions will be very politically sensitive. draghi likes to keep his options he would nwant to e an increasn volatility and higher risk premium. at the same time, he will have to put an end to qe sooner rather than later. 118 allow the euro at him to be more hawkish? help the ecb move towards the exit. the euro is back to the level it was the start of the year. to term limits and it combines with higher oil prices. you take into account the wage growth, the negotiated wages, at the highest level in six years. point these moving parts towards a more hawkish stance by the ecb, but it is still relative, because the ecb is not as dovish as you imanehe central bank to be. guy: what do you thi

mario draghi proved once again he can move the market.n the back ofr the decision of the ecb to phase out qe but the big news was afforded word guidance on interest rates. experts did not expect a change until december but he says he will keep them the same through summer of next year or longer if needed. maturing debt will be reinvested after the end of the net asset purchases. program isthe qe subject of incoming data and economists before the decision have predicted borrowing cost would rise around the middle of next year. september seems to be the new money market favored month for the first rate hike by the ecb. stocks are rising, the euro is plunging, falling 1.3% today, the most since last october. we had comments from the lights stockgen, credit agrico and you wonder if those forecasts will be true and we are seeing yields declined ahead of the meeting. the 10 year german bund yield is declining. are in the final two columns. moving away from the ecb, retail sales in the u.k. jumped more than economists forecast in may. warm weath

no matter how you slice it, every trader thinks that mario draghi on thursday will be the definitiveg because it's going to be up to him, now that the cat's out of the bag. we all expected -- they've already trimmed their purchases in september supposed to make the next move what will the timeline be? mario draghi certainly wanted to make this meeting coming up a hot meeting and we're all waiting with bated breath. can he deliver that seems to be the topic will his promises to wind down, a, be implemented? will there be a commitment and the biggest question, as the curtain falls, will there be any encore performances? after saying all that, do you remember what my special number today was, big number 31 that represents mr. kuroda, the 31st head of the bank of japan my own opinion, to weigh in on this, i think friday is the big day. i think that mario draghi's course, especially with what's going on with italy, will be tricky the trickiest of all has to be the bank of japan. like any good poker game, where you sit makes a lot of difference terms like check to the highest bidder, meani

powell committed to gradual hikes, mario draghi going nowhere fast. and pricing in political risk. looking ahead at a string of key elections in emerging markets. we begin with the big issue, corporate america boosting leverage. >> right now, it is still pretty attractive to borrow. you have seen a pretty meaningful upsurge in sizable deals. companies are raising $20 billion, $30 billion, $40 billion of money at one go. >> increased leverage on balance sheets is absolutely a risk. i think a lot of companies are much more healthy in thinking through how much risk they want to take, how much debt they

mario draghi did a fantastic job at the conference today.y were slightly more hawkish in terms of the bond program. they were slightly more dovish on the pace of increasing rates. left ambiguous. -- left it ambiguous. thes managed to get through scarlet that a taper tantrum like the u.s. in 2013. say hemario draghi did will remain data-driven in all of this, including holding rates where they are. what do you think are some of the unknown unknowns that could change the syria -- the scenario ? >> some of the unknowns are mario draghi's term ends next year. not sure how much he will be able to influence past the end of his term. change.osition will separately, we will have to watch to see how credit spreads in your perform. -- in europe perform. they responded favorably today. but this is a perennial issue they will have to watch the next six to nine months. curve and the yield the narrowing of the spread between the two-year and the 10-year, inversion is still a bad thing. >> definitely a bad thing. bond geekseeks -- us worry too much. the cu

. ♪ mario draghi, giving something to do. trading a little softer this morning.il trading in range. we just talked to jason gamble about that story from jeffrey's. what are we expecting and europe? -- in europe? idea of whatu an the fair values are saying. down around 2/10 on the ftse story. elsewhere more flat. the individual stocks story is worth focusing on. retailer could be one of the big stories in terms of the share price movement. what's a you what is going on -- let's show you what is going on with the ftse 100. going to stray too far from the flat line this morning. elsewhere, we are going to focus on individual names. largely positive, this is what the imap function on your bloomberg looks like. a largely positive story as we start to settle into the friday trade. we do see some of the material stocks weakening. financials are doing reasonably well and health care is looking reasonably well. let me read from this quickly -- rerun this quickly. trading happens a lot over the first 40 seconds with the market open. 231 loers. nand -- 231 losers. there, is

tomorrow, president mario draghi speaks alongside his counterparts from the fed moderated by stephanies. this is bloomberg. ♪ s is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: time for our stock of the hour. shares of the fertilizer giant are among the worst as trade tensions spur. abigail doolittle is here. abigail: that's what we're looking at cf industries as a of looking at simmering trade tensions between china and the u.s.. cf industries is a fertilizer giant. and onoduce fertilizers the news of tariffs for grains that has been initiated before today we have these continued fears it could hurt the company. in the near term this is an emotional response. right now it's growing season. in the fall, it could depend whether they make decisions about how much to plant and what. if you happen to the bloomberg of the soy to corn of the soy to corn ratio, we see it is on the decline. both pricing's are dropping. it may suggest corn could be stronger and cf industries produces nitrogen which is not produced by -- used by soybeans. how'd you reconcile those two facts? abigail: something that is happening here is

were you surprised by any of the messages we got from mario draghi last week?y set the timetable. there was a push back a little bit on whether interest rates would go up. there has been a management of the transition toward treatment -- transitional rate targets. we are now at the most a sustainable pace of growth, though still above trend. the ecb has cleverly constructed the europosition -- zone economy is slowing down with inflation. assumption of reinvestment, still very much in play. interest rates remaining at record negative rates. with global trade headwinds although the bar is high, the bar to raising rates is even higher. it lowerghi has left for longer. >> an interesting chart. we were showing a good chart as to the nature of central banking policy. lena, thank you. users can interact with any of the charts we have been using during the program. can browse all of the recent charts featured on bloomberg television and catch up on key analysis associated with them. coming up, a big week for oil. it could be a very intense opec meeting in vienna. this

mario draghi has put the european central bank road to ending bond buying.set purchases will be phased out by december, a pledge to keep interest rates at current close through the middle of next year. that dovishness caught investors by surprise, the euro tumbling 1%. >> the governing council concluded that progress towards a sustained adjustment in inflation has been substantial them a so far. >> economists see no change in policy out of friday's boj meeting, leaving governor kuroda increasingly out of step. be focusing on how he explains the recent weakening in inflation. the divergence and policy may add downside pressure on the yen, helping exporters and assisting the boj's inflation campaign. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. rishaad: half full be taking on netflix and amazon as feature films are on the way. ♪ haidi: this is "bloomberg markets: asia." i am haidi lun in sydney. apple nearing a deal for its first feature film, marking a new chapter. da

and auts mario draghi rock and a hard place. the most interesting comment on this policy came from jay powell who said the report stimulus fiscal policy in the u.s., there is not as much room as there should be probably. possibly taking a swipe at andld trump's tax reform referencing ben bernanke's wiley coyote moment. vonnie: the trade rhetoric escalation and how it will affect the economy? thank you to matt miller and we will return to him later. fascinating. what is going on in europe? mark: theresa may won the key brexit vote in the house of commons. it has been about the key part of the brexit legislation that allows parliament a more meaningful vote. there has been a compromise. we will discuss the compromise later when we talk to jim hertling. thatarly view seems to be she has proven the queen of delaying, because this will have to return to the house of commons possibly next month when the trade bill comes back to the house. that bill is essentially -- do we want to make -- the a part of the customs union? once again, th

we're going to hear from mario draghi and jay powell. guest is still with us.s words ringing in our ears, are central banks taking away the punch soul -- hezbollah and it is -- is it too fast? >> without any prospect of inflation rising, we wouldn't be having this discussion. happenssuming what rather than discussing what are the drivers behind this. orit is something organic driven by improving underlying fundamentals, we could see a rise in productivity and potential growth. i don't see that as an issue that we have be worried about. if interest rates are high and there is a supply shock, we may have an issue. at this point, it is a consequence of national -- national economic growth. is the message that jay powell wants to give to the world. when we look at the global balance sheets around the world, the bank of japan is going to continue to add global they will not be higher than 1.5% next year. rememberoyd warning us 1994? i'm happy you mentioned that balance sheet. if we look at the forecast around the market, it is all about rates. are we talking enough

mario draghi proved once again he can move

. >>> coming up, find out why mario draghi surging patience on future rate rises.e'll be live in sintra after this break >>> welcome to "street signs." i'm willem marx. these are your headlines european stock markets rebound from a global selloff that saw the dow wipe out its year-to-date gains amid heightened trade tensions. >>> the relief rally sweeps across asia with chinese sessions closing in positive territory. on the offensive the iranian oi minister says there may be no agreement in vienna as he slams president trump for interfering in the crude market. >> important things, i would like to declare that opec is independent organization, and is not american organization. >>> ge gets booted from the dow after a century on the wall street index it gets replaced by walgreens which rallies after hours. >>> it was a negative day across the u.s. markets yesterday let's look at how futures there are looking at this stage of the morning. looks like the dow jones being called up more than 100 points the nasdaq and s&p 500 also looking to open slightly higher. that was

wednesday, president mario draghi speaks at the ecb.ll of this will be moderated by bloomberg's head of economics. you can watch it on my tv and and tunen -- live tv in on live go on bloomberg. matt: when we come back, what the at&t and time warner tight up means for other media mergers. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ guy: six minutes to be start of cash trade in europe. let's go around the newsroom. annmarie hordern, and are equities team. one of the big elements in this media consolidation story we have been watching for is the judge clearing thet& and time warner merger. w are liky to see is a comcast bid for fox after this. we may see an increased offer for sky from qualcomm. maybe others could come in to join this battle. jp, let's go to you. two other companies are starting a renegotiation of their merger. this is according to a german newspaper. this follows a bloomberg report fromonday of two activist and in the joint venture both companies will hold 50%. guy: anne-marie -- annmarie, how big of a pop will bweee in tech today? annmarie:

silver lining for mario draghi. rebounding from a five-month low, pointing to recovery in second quarter. euro find support. i split white house. -- a split white house. trying to restart talks with the chinese, others dig in their heels. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: americas," i'm david westin with alix steel. you know what i got to do yesterday? i watched croatia-argentina. alix: i came back my show and i was like david is not here, something is wrong. david: i had a big lunch, canceled. alix: it was amazing. no one expected it. david: particularly no one expected that messi didn't show up. he was not a big factor. croatia played a big game, 3-0. alix: what was the other upset -- germany? david: england pulled it out against -- alix: you are laughing at me. back to the markets. a friday morning rally underway. you will not take the conditions very seriously to the close. as in the future up 13 points, rallying on better pmi. long and yields, up 10 year. brent confused but higher, over 1%. headlines out o

mario draghi and his group didn't sound very optimistic that's what we'll talk about after the break.at? that's the beat of global markets, the rhythm of the world. but to us, it's the pace of tomorrow. with ingenuity, technologies, and markets expertise we create the possible. and when you do that, you don't chase the pace of tomorrow. you set it. nasdaq. rewrite tomorrow. >>> i'm scott wapner at the top of the hour, goldilocks is that really the case? plus our call of the day is making jim leventhal some money today. >>> why rebecca patterson says don't fear the fed she will explain when we see you at noon, mike, 10 minutes or so away see you then. >> scott, we'll see you then thank you very much. >>> let's get out to the cme group in chicago rick santelli is there with the santelli exchange. hey, rick. >> hi, mike. it seems so incongrunt to look up and see twos are unchanged, tens are down one, 30s are down three. this is after maybe not stratospheric but up 4.6 to 4.8 for gdp. maybe it won't come out at 4.8 but others that try to handicap the gdp number for q2 are all crossing tha

mario draghi speaks alongside his counterparts at the boj and rba. watch live on bloomberg tv and on -- here it on the radio. this is bloomberg. ♪ 23 minutes into the market this morning in europe. the bond markets reacted quickly to what was being said. it's, a little red. i don't know how else to say it. germany is under pressure this morning, no surprise given what is going on with the trade story. this morning, trading down by 1.6%. at question i would ask, what point do we get to the point where there is enough selling? cuestors will take their from the central bank, which is going to be a pivotal piece in all of this. as a result, we are focusing our attention on matt miller. matt: larry summers is definitely helping out the bears warning that global governments and central banks are not prepared in case there is another recession. they need to stop worrying about stopping inflation and continue worrying about incubating their economies. as a result, there are going to be a bought of questions about policy. -- a lot of questions about policy. i

president mario draghi detailed the strategy the bank will follow as it runs down the bond program. we will continue to make ned purchase and the a p p that the current monthly piece of thirty billion euro until the end of september two thousand and eighteen. we anticipate that after september two thousand and eighteen subject to being coming data confirming our medium term inflation outlook we will reduce the monthly piece of the medicine purchases to fifty million euros until the end of december two thousand and eighteen and then and purchase. to double your financial correspondent genelle them allowing is that record stock exchange and has been listening to mario draghi very closely to hydra now well it seems like the times of cheap money in the euro zone are finally over how is that going out of the markets. well the markets are actually reacting pretty positively although it has to be said that the end of crisis era stimulus was something that was expected now european stocks went up on the east and on this news it appears that the markets are quite alike to this middle ground

what is expected out of mario draghi? in jt a few hours, and the bank of chinas expected to raise its rate by five points. there is mario draghi. they are seen discussing the qe exit. he is cautious. he wants to see inflion staying near thet. he wants to see the economy getting stronger. he is going to say yes, we discussed it. save the details for the july meetings. that is what he is talking about. aney are ahead of the central bank, in the corruption char later half of the year, they're supposed to raise their reserve requirements. your lsening and tightening at the same time. it is tough when you're trying to avoid a slowdown. we have seen that in the philippines as well. thank you, kathleen. joining usngs michael every. what do you makeis hike from the fed? was it dovish or hawkish? >> i think it was covered nicely just now. they're looking at the data. and they'reeak ms. getting toward the end of the cognizanty must be of the fact there getting toward the end of the cycle. we do not know who the members are. it is a

mario draghi will hold a news conference at 8:30 eastern, which we will monitor and bring to you also the top corporate story, comcast offering $65 billion in cash for some of 21st century fox's assets a $35 per share bid, 20% higher than disney's all stock bid. i think there's no other way to say it but game on and clearly comcast has now put disney in a box one way or the other. >> yeah. there's a lot of mice analogies. the best laid plans of mice and men. did you think of that? >> i had not >> that's good with the mouse house >> that's what i mean. best laid plans of mice and men. we'll have a couple guys on who follow this. that doesn't mean they know more than andrew ross sorkin or david faber or us. at this point there's no way disney can say -- >> comcast put bob iger in a box. >> to do what? he doesn't have to go above -- >> it's an interesting question of whether he would have to bid over $65 >> why >> first, there's a couple over -- >> over $35 rather i'm thinking $65 billion. there's a couple of interesting issues here. >> regulatory? >> as we know, rupert murdoch for whate

manus: is not right picking up on that, if it is not a plain, vanilla, mario draghi -- we have feasted his put in many ways. so really, it could be from the put to the scuttle? >>r.raghi is still a run for a long time, he doesn't run out until later next year. he would like to see this go as smoothly as possible. inly has thrown a wrench something which he probably was not prepared for. he has eight dovish nature as well. i think if there was any be -- if there will be any surprise , they would be a twist that would give him more flexibility to maintain some sort of aggressive qe, even though he looks like some tapering has already began. anna: thank you very much, mark cranfield. you can follow live market insights from mark and the rest of the team. juttinert in london, micro strategist at j.p. morgan asset management. good morning, mike. the ecb story,th and how it in the intersects with it. what are your expectations? they meetthat next week's, but in terms of informing us about the timing of qe? >> our best case is that we are still going to see qe come to an end by the end of thi

or is number of risks you know the mario draghi the head of the e.c.b. today in a speech in portugal actually mentioned that he won't change his policy too fast it will be done step by step which actually weighs on the euro so that must have been intended i think this was intended because they all these risks accumulating you know they wouldn't increase interest rates now quickly but you know the debate is there and higher interest rates will be the next step it may take some time but it would come ok of course the risky i mean trade obviously that's something that we've been talking about left right and center the big issue and it just won't go away but then we still have of course the uncertainties surrounding brics it. german companies somewhat sort of better prepared now for the unknown that's hard to say i think they are preparing for a scenario of very hard break that now where no agreement would be in place which means they need to rearrange their production chains you know think about their production in the u.k. for the european markets so this

forum, mario draghi speaks alongside his counter part at the u.s. open. and a posey panel moderated by stephanie. capture it live on the markets for you now t. is a down day. we are seeing $250 billion wiped off the s&p 500, worst day since may 29. it's the worst day in some weeks. ever single industry group is movement. we've got a risk-off trade and a search for the haven. this is bloomberg. ♪ caroline: live from london, i'm caroline hyde. vonnie: and i'm vonnie holiday. this is bloomberg markets. ellen, we mentioned the fed, how difficult it is to model out what's actually going to happen to the real economy. of course, we had the tax cuts, and so there is a thought out there that maybe tariffs might outweigh some of the benefits that we saw from tax cuts. ellen: i think this is a really common question we get from our clients. at what point do the trade tensions, especially if they continue, outrisk the benefits we get from a tax cut from. a business perspective, i might have just had some corporate tax rate drop, and i might have had a lot of plans f

economic output for the entire eurozone and soon after the decision was announced easy president mario draghi detailed the strategy the bank will follow as the bronze down the bond program. continue to make that purchase on the p.p. that the current monthly piece of thirty million euro will until the end of september two thousand and eighteen. anticipate that after september two thousand and eighteen subject to being coming in data confirming our medium term inflation outlook we will reduce the monthly piece of the net our spiritual sins to fifteen million euros until the end of december two thousand and eighteen and then and purchase. and of course we will follow the story and its consequences for you and to corporate news now on fox has agreed to pay a one billion euro fine as a direct consequence of the it will get the carmaker accepted an order by german prosecutors the first such order coming from germany while the fine will say fox on one battle in the courts there are still several more in and outside of germany. v.w. is reeling after being slapped with another billion euros in penalti

but it does matter the pressure mounting based on the pure activity, the promise the promises of mario draghictual movement of balance sheets in the u.s. it's going to put mr. kuroda in the box. it will. while all of this is going on, let's look at data points, shall we first of all, when you look at the markets it they look half fool or you would say none of these are really the reason. i think i would question that. i think it's difficult to ascertain differences of how foreign trade, monetary policy and foreign trade policy are playing in one sure on the latter, everything changed in the markets about 50 or 60 hours ago with mario draghi telling us this is going to be a hot meeting on quantitative easing a week from today. finally, eurozone, they're growth number us i understand when you lump all of the countries together i'm not sure if the information is better or worse. as with the european union growth as evidenced by gdp is up 0.4 for the final read on the quarter, wafd on first quarter versus fourth quarter. that's the slowest month since 2015 the reason i bring that up, it shouldn't

david: is mario draghi catching up with jay powell?n: he is, but both are moving in the direction of tightening. mario draghi seems more effective at sounding dovish in the prospects, than powell. the has learned to be able to ease well with words, holding off on future tightening. if you think about this, go year ahead, honestly the federal reserve will be closer to the end of its tightening cycle and the ecb will just be beginning. global recessions, bear in mind, it was 2009, before that it was world war ii before the book of the world economy was going at the same time. recessions tend to be regional. the u.s. will have impact on the rest of the world, but even that is beyond probably 2019. alix: you can see it reflected in the treasury bund spread, almost 260 basis points. the trade going in, you would actually be shorting bunds and you will see the spread narrowed, and that in no way has played out. steven: we would not put the money to work in the bund market. this is not necessarily winning trades, when central banks can purcha

i think some people call that a drug based -- dovish sense from mario draghi.ological list, burbank, japan -- the company changed policy away from the target, so what is the big debate? reporter: as you said, their hands are tied. the inflation rate was at 1. year-over-year and the target is 2%. at 7%.ow it is unanimous in their latest bl survey, no change in controlsnd purposes. the nikkei last year it reported they might change their inflation forecast for this year, acknowledging how far they are from meeting the target. in term the big question for the boj is, why doesn't that inflation rise when labor markets are so tight? they will give us their thoughts after studying this question of what's going on and what they expect to happen next. rishaad: thank you very much for that. kathleen hays. let's look at welch we have coming along. looking at apple. harder for app store harvest information from iphone users.we look at the fallout from the data scandal at facebook. haidi: coming up, did the singapore summit live up to the hype? we will be asking that quest

>> i think it should be a concern for mario draghi.k in the post crisis iod, there is certainly a larger elements generally externally when you compare it to the united kingdom or the united states. the countries within the region are running incredibly large. there is a sort of problem in the end of themselves. when you rely heavily on external growth, you are going to be sensitive to such things as movement in the currencies, but also policy, which may affect free trade in the way we are seeing. i find it strange the european union seems so quick to want to retaliate in that fashion, when there was a negotiation to be had, here. even for the eurozone, i don't e this being a material threat to the overall growth picture. recoveryore entrenched that can be shocked by what we have seen so far in terms of policy steps. around --will stick james will stick around. up next, stocks on the move. we are talking about a trade war having an effect on business. sector,est loser in the renault has gone ex dividend. bmw is trading lower. conti is

up up another important set of conversations with mario draghi, powell, kuroda.he markets churning higher today. in washington with the news as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ retail. under pressure like never before. and it's connected technology that's moving companies forward fast. e-commerce. real time inventory. virtual changing rooms. that's why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent network speed across multiple locations. every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. comcast business outmaneuver. >> it is all your fault, the u.s. accuses china and a new 35 page document. market jitters take a break. again, a voten, will determine the path of brexit negotiations. deal or no deal, iran rejects any output compromise and will leave the opec meeting early. oil prices are caught in the middle. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." welcome back. big day tomorrow. opec. >> i am into it. right? questions as to what it will mean for oil prices in ter

mario draghi said the central bank will be patient raising rates. later on, another ecb officials said he expects the central bank to start raising rates after summer 2019, and a quick mention of the pound falling to a seven-month low ursus the u.s. dollar after theresa may lost a vote on her brexit legislation in the house of lords. the next vote is tomorrow in the house of commons over an amendment that would give parliament to stop a messy, no-deal brexit. joe: let's look at the commodities world where it was not a very pretty day. it was basically read all across the board. soybeans getting slammed down over 2%, of course. that is potentially a commodity that could get hit very hard in a trade war if china were to slap tariffs or reduce its imports of u.s. soybeans. not good for u.s. farmers. seen as aen bellwether for the global economy concerning its displeasure at the news. julie: at one point, soybeans ite down as much as 5%, so is interesting they have that steep decline. they are down about 10% just in june, but still, they bounce back a l

javier: is very difficult from mario draghi.can increase quite a lot and the saudi minister said a bit more, he disclosed that they have already started the process of producing more, so we will see higher production in june. saudi arabia is loading more oil takers this month. and we will see higher production from russia, we will see allies of both countries, like uae, producing more. beyond that, not much more to add. certainly he is no mario draghi and there is a limit on how much he can do to keep the market balance. alix: great point. good to see you. for more on opec, we are joined by michael wittner and we still have robert sinche with us. good to see you. i have the spread in my terminal. all of a sudden it is five dollars versus $11, why? mike: there is probably movement there of investor flows, because really the fundamentals, we do not think ever supported $11 a barrel. $5, which can be volatile. alix: the in relation to more oil coming online from russia and saudi arabia? mike: i do not think so. robert: i think ther

will it change as the fed and the boj join mario draghi in portugal?i think there are a couple of elements. the euro is facing an upward pressure, because of current account surplus. a trade surplus when it comes to germany. on the flipside you have downward pressure being put through the geopolitical uncertainty. i don't think the dovish rhetoric is going to change the way people have been trading so far. the thing is to monitor the rate --rket which is to the market is more focused on the timing of a rate hike as opposed to the dovish rhetoric which has been draghi trademark investorou want a u.s. , what is there to bring you back to mark what is there in europe that is going to want to bring you back? we have been having conversation with investors for the past couple of years and the trade has always been long europe, short u.s. equities because there's a lot of quidity in the eurozone. one of the things that is quite amazing if you look at ten-year's ago, the top companies in the u.s. have completely changed. 10 years ago, they are pretty much bee

mario draghi going nowhere fast. pricing in political risk. looking at a string of key elections in emerging markets. we begin with corporate america boosting leverage. >> right now it is still pretty attractive to borrow. you have seen a pretty meaningful upsurge and sizable deals. companies are raising $20 billion, $30 billion, $40 billion of money at one go. >> increased leverage on balance sheets is absolutely a risk. i think a lot of companies are much more healthy in thinking through how much risk they want to take, how much debt they actually need. it is definitely an area of concern. >> the economy is on a very strong growth track, no question, and that supports leverage. -- and it always happened in the past because economies are indeed cyclical. when do hit a tipping point, where is the tipping point? it goes back to the elephant in the room, the trade wars. that is what could cause a tipping point. jonathan: a full house around the table. keenan, oksana memani.and krishna withna, i want to begin you and bring up the subject of what'

eek from mario draghi >> he will hopefully say nothing about it. that is not his turf.he overall euro zone economy, which is still doing ok, if not quite as well as last year. italy has to sort itself out. the ecb is not there to help italy in anyway. the ecb will not help italy. anna: they have to decide how long they keep buying bonds and from whom. they happened buying lot -- a lot in the past and they keep on doing that. >> as to -- they basically stick to the capital key. i do not think they want to deviate from that, and they cannot really deviate from that without sending controversial political messages which they do not want to do. ending the bond purchases -- they would be running out of some bonds sometime early next year. the economy is doing well enough. inflation is taking up. they have all reasons to and asset purchases by the end of this year. anna: i have a chart that shows inflation picking up in the eurozone, but it is not core inflation. it is headline inflation. it is at 1.9%. this down to mario draghi and how much is there a long way to go on the i

ecb president mario draghi said that the euro area economy is moving in a healthy direction.rogress towards a sustained adjustment has been substantial so far. the bank opened the possibility of extending for a short of expectations. bring in karo, great to have you with us. you ended qe and that was well telegraphed. managing them -- managing this a lot europe to fall. 1.5% on the dollar. that is substantial. yellow,ario draghi in very successful not having these dramatic moves in the market. he has been less fortunate on days where he is speaking. by qe ends but later.it increases to >> did you say unfortunate or fortunate. >> i think they had to had offset, countermand doing comments for signals today. that is why we saw the move. when you says been qe, -- it was successful in that regard. >> a line of argument that the primary transmission mechanism is that it is a mechanism about delaying rate hikes longer. it raises the question, if you and qe but then make a strong statement about how you will not do this for a year, you do not at all? >> you haven't really. looking fu

that has been the case with the ecb under mario draghi.uch more about a balanced path and therefore they are going to be think about higher long-term yields -- thinking about higher long-term yields. matt: you have not seen lately the ecb buying italian bonds, french bonds,. or spanish bonds. . they have buying a bunch of german debt. when they take that demand out of the market, are we going to finally see bund yields start to rise? peter: i would need to correct you. with the ecb has been buying is in line with the program as far as i see the data. some of the recent changes as to the bonds that they bought according to their -- has really been due to a lack of re-investments needed in the btp market. but the market will change when qe stops. it will change in its ability to absorb volatility would decrease. long-term yields will still be much lower than the used to be. our estimate is that the bond is is going to- bund be kept 70 basis points later. the term premium is being suppressed by that 70 basis points. that will not disappear an

ands central bank this week could we be headed for mario draghi's most awkward meeting yet.hree 's model three miscalculation leads to job cuts. theresa may scrambles for brexit compromise. trump did agree to lift sanctions after their meeting. when you look at our cross-section of stories and are most read, they appeal to different audiences. what are you looking at the most? story ise at&t fascinating because it opens the door and a large way for merger acquisition activity this summer when one thinks about the allocation of the cash that companies get on the assets, i worry we will have relatively undiscriminating decisions by boards. that could be very bad news. i'm going to be interested to see what is next. let's get a briefing on that and continue the discussion on comcast. president trump says economic sanctions will st in place against north korea. kim jong-un sees things differently. north korea says the president agreed to lift sanctions in singapore. sanctionstrump said would be enforced until north korea agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal. it is not clear if

this has been the biggest risk point, for the ecb specifically, mario draghi has pointed specificallyo this as a major risk point. a lot of of the threats have not materialized. some of them may july 1. we have some deadlines that come due on steel and aluminum exports. the numbers are relatively small, the markets are looking through it for that reason. but the bigger issue, i think, for the central banks is what kind of impact it will have on confidence, spending, if it keeps dragging on. i think this is where they will be looking for that, to see if there is any damaging pact. there is a mild inflationary butct if you get tariffs, that is minor. it is more on the downside of wh it does to confidence and spending. shery: does that mean the ecb could move all at once and breakdown their steps from this meeting and then the next? the ecbeverybody knows wants to end their qe program this year. the qe program runs out at the end of september. the plan is to run it down from october, november, december, taper down to the end of the year. the question is when they announced their plan. it