but his mark carney going to go steady. -- but his mark carney going to go steady?come back. 16 minutes past 7:00 here in london. here are the stories you need to know. the bank of england will announce the interest rates decisions. this is the first time the central bank has scheduled a publication of those three elements. mark carney believes this will make the bank of england decision-making process more transparent. egypt opens its new extension to the suez canal today. the $8.2 billion expansion has been completed to hear -- two years ahead of schedule. one company watching the new suez canal is mask. the ceo joins us now. he is on the line from cairo. the to have you on the program. thanks for joining us. the egyptian government caused this its "get to the world." -- calls this it's "gift to the world." >> the shipping community has been looking forward to the expansion of the canal. to have a reliable, safe canal that will save the future of world trade. this is a very positive -- this is very positive for trade. anna: how will this impact container rates whe

you sound like mark carney. we want to get real rates up, mark carney does.th consensus, the tooktook the day -- doves the day, what signal did we get from the bank of england this morning? axel: they were different from the fed. they have everybody giving up their own opinion, and then carney is like greenspan, think the bank of england will be on track with the fed in raising rates. i do not think they are married to the fed, they will go a and have their own set of challenges. brendan: whether gold is a commodity or currency, the sliding gold, does that change that discussion? axel: no, what happened with gold, speculators hopped on and commodity. financial then we need to have the grinding to get back to the more sustainable level. ultimately, everybody likes gold with hindsight and nobody likes it going forward because how can something that is a brick the a value. ? vonnie: the event the bearish call? -- defend the bearish call? axel: eileen against the consensus. i think the fed will not be as tight as the market expects, i think europe will not be as

that is what mark carney will have to balance today. y comments he makes and any voting, any decision, we are expecting the rate to stay anywhere record low. any voting and comments from carney you will have to watch closely about the effect on the pound. you could see a lot of volatility after the deluge of data at 12:00. caroline: thank you. the bank of england will be replacing -- releasing a flood of data at midday. what does that mean to analysts? one market pro breaks it down. >> you'll get that initial reaction boom from the vote. then they will start coming over saying it is more dovish. you will get a secondary reaction, that is why it is volatile. david: are we going to get a plethora of data which will slam into the market. we could get big moves. we will see in the future how important the data is. this is a day that moves markets much like in the u.s. we have the payrolls. i think the main thing to look for is the vote. what is the answer, what is the number? what has happened with the forecast? have they raised it? the minu

governor mark mark -- mark carney speaking later. we get u.k.ial manufacturing production and then it 10:00 we get the unemployment rate. later we get initial jobless claims out of the u.s.. payrolls friday is tomorrow. we will be on that throughout the day. the dax is treading water, dead flat. a click check on fx, the euro is -- has dropped. that is it for me. i am on twitter. best of luck for the rest of your day. good luck to the city of london getting home. ♪ >> super thursday, the city braces it self for a slew of data as the bank without its minute and forecast. rio tinto a 43% slump and iron ore prices collapse. egypt opened $8 billion extension to the swiss -- suez canal. can the new route turn things around? ♪

the question is is mark carney happy with that? that brings us to the inflation report.g, the strength in sterling. the rally against the euro we've seen and 3% rally in strengthen strength since that meeting is a factor. it's got a deflationary impact and more broader commodity prices and then we're starting to see wage increases filing through. a touch of weakness in the unemployment situation and employment situation in the u.k. economy. that's what it boils down to. whether or not in the short-term we see a drop in their inflation forecast versus a pick up in their inflation forecasts out to the 2 to 3 year point and that's what we're going to be looking at here today and of course when mark carney speaks irrespective of what the economy is telling us we know there's hints from within the monetary policy committee that zero can't be the case for rates forever and ever. they want to test the response to a rate hike in a similar way and they also want to reign in some of the enthusiasm quest for yield going on in the market. so a really fine balancing act for mark carn

a couple of reasons -- mark carney outlined a couple.hey are saying that oil prices are helping to reduce the inflation rate in the u.k., particularly fuel prices for motorists. that said, it's somewhat offset by clothing prices, but overall, things aren't filtering through. let's not forget that the pound is pretty strong against the euro. the uk's biggest trading partner is also reducing the relative costs of imports, and all of that is keeping the inflationary environment pretty benign. mark: in terms of rate increases from the bank of england? elliott: mark carney has gone on the record that says if and when we see interest rates rise, they will be limited and gradual in their scope. to thealso referring last time since 1992 when that inflation target was first put down, 2%. he said relative to that rate it will be slow. there are some members of the monetary policy committee getting unnerved. we heard from christian forbes, in an interview with "the telegraph," saying that if interest rates remain too low for too long they would ris

janet yellen or mark carney?le the market is pricing in a hike before the bank of england makes it's move david miles suggested the u.k. could pull the trigger first it follows a number of not so subtle hints that a rate hike is coming. >> trading just shy of a four week high against the u.s. dollars. the strong pound causing havoc for british exporters and in the u.s. janet yellen looks on course to hike rates in september if there's no ugly surprises in the data. >> in fact wednesday's nonmanufacturing pmi reached the highest level in a decade slashing expectations. it prompted them to increase the payroll's estimate to 225,000 while jp morgan refirms to 240,000. i don't think it's about who goes first. symbolically that's a little important but isn't it more important to see who raises by how much over the next couple of years? i don't think the market pays attention to that. what we don't want to see is another greenspan, 14 hikes in a row in the course of two years. >> that's more important over the medium t

governor mark carney said events are creating a drag on prices.ts. >> at his meeting yesterday the mpc voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain take rates. they voted unanimously to maintain the stock of asset prices. they reaffirm the expectation that when the bank rate rises occurred, they can be expected to be limited and gradual. near-term outlook for inflation is needed. the falls and energy prices over the last few months will continue to bear down on inflation until the end of next year. nonetheless, a range of measures that medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. sterling has appreciated three point 5% since may and 20% since the trough in march of 2013. the drag on import prices from the appreciation will push down on inflation for some time, posing a downside risk to its near-term path, in particular. as the u.k. expansion progresses, speculation about the precise timing on the first -- off ink increase banknotes is increasing. it is a welcome sign of an economy returning to normal. the likely timing of the first bank rate

governor mark carney speaking as well.y that could equally light the fuse turned pound as we go into that meeting. it is not just the u.s. that might have a strong currency problem. back to you. francine: jon, thanks so much. jonathan ferro with the latest on the markets. manus: tom keene joins us now from europe. you want to talk about the dollar. we had george magnuson here from u.b.s. the dollar is in the foothill turnovers next big move. -- of the next big move. tom: i loved jon ferro's data check. i just brought up euro/sterling. ou wonder if the strength gets back to 2000 levels. it is not just a dollar story. it is the complexity of all the different currency pairs. the real question here is after a good 50% dollar move, do we see another new leg of dollar strengths? soros of to martin w.p.p. we'll talk to dan suzuki of merrill lifrpbl. a special guest this morning, david goldman will join us. for years at bank of america. david goldman is adamant, manus that this is just as much about weakness that has to come. it

governor mark carney weighs interest rate hike. us.reat to have you with do i ignore the pullback and wage growth today? line.es, bottom we know it will slow. this is a three-month average. it was a very strong march. the overwhelming trend is that it has picked up from last year. the really big question to ask today is on the employment side it was the figure for unemployment falling. is that a blip? is it a volatile single month figures we get from the oms? a will this be sustained? that is the really big question. jonathan: a lot of people talk about wage growth, the bank of england very good at talking about wage growth. do you share that optimistic view about wage growth? john: if you look at the underlying surveys, but they suggest is that the service sector is getting on a 3% wage growth. fed released a report recently looking at the way in which wages and inflation are linked, and that the relationship may be nonlinear. we could see much greater tightness in the labor market, certainly not to look forward and wondered that beco

tom: mark carney has to. >> a large part of current inflation is temporary, a decline in the price of oil, at nine in the price of raw materials. these are things that will stabilize at some point. we not going to be as low as we are now forever, and we need to be looking ahead as we go. having said that, the data heavy drivers, and we have to ask ourselves where are we yet the we are in a situation a very low inflation. : you wrote on price stickiness. many would suggest we had deflation stickiness. should we fear substantial disinflation and outright deflation? this morning we see tenure switzerland negative interest rate. two-year german drives ever lower. do you fear global deflation and knockout effects to the united states? >> we take account of what is happening abroad. our capital markets are linked. we have to take that into account, so yes, it bothers us. it is not inevitable. it is not based in the economies of broad, but it is matt: their right now. matt:fed vice chairman stanley fischer speaking with tom keene. scarlet: interesting the fed looks at it a certain way and ma

manus: the bank of england's new regime under mark carney will deliver not just the rate decision bututes of the previous meeting along with the inflation report. the sense seems to be from the conversation you and i had with bnp paribas that the markets are taking quite a bearish view on the euro, a bullish view on sterling. you have an underpricing in terms of the potential. they are going all in on this trade. they want you to buy euro-sterling -- sorry, by sterling, sell euro. with a target of 67.5 in terms of that objective. they see the market pricing in dissent from two of the members of the monetary policy committee. they say you could see a little bit more, which would be 63. in other words, 3%. that is 30% more than the market is already pricing in. there's not much difference between three people governing and everybody voting for rate hike. upset says, don't get so by the lack of wage data. a historic record low. he is focused on the unemployment rate. that will be the much more relevant piece of information. it just depends. flip a coin. one will say wages matter. another

what's interest as good there is no inflationary argument for janet yellen or mark carney to raise interest rates. what they want to do is start to cycle early and send a warning shot across financial markets and the hunt for yield and in household budgets. get the household monies in order ahead of a potential hike, more aggressive hikes in 2016. >> let's talk about the sterling. talking about the fact that the sterling is a big unknown and big wildcard for the boe. you expected cpi to tick upwards in the second half of the year but with the strength of the sterling and we're seeing that this morning on the back of the data, that's probably only going to happen on q-4. >> what you're seeing sits doing mark carney's job for him. he's probably raised effectively the interest rates in the u.k. by between 50 and 75 basis points just by the strength of sterling and the impact that has had on cheaper import prices and what you'll see is an impact later in the year as the year on year change in sterling which was front loaded starts to leave the system along with year on year change in oil prices

tomorrow stanley fischer, bank of england governor, mark carney, reserve bank of india governor and fedhair janet yellen. she is skipping the gathering this year. there is a group of protesters there. they're not fed fans. in fact they're called fed up. they're attending event a second time. liberal coalition made up of community activist groups, wants the fed to hold off raising interest rates at next month's policy meeting. we have several countries sending messages to fed chair, hey, don't raise rates from india, china, imf they're putting votes in to say janet yellen, please don't raise rates. stay tuned to fox biz. at 3:00 p.m. we have interview with kocherlakota, with liz claman in the 3:00 p.m. show. he is minneapolis bank president, also in jackson hole. this comes on heels of what we heard from bill dudley. said september rate hike was less compelling. international developments increased risk to the u.s. economy and global market turmoil could affect u.s. employment prospects. what? we want job. >> chris beacham earlier in the show said he is done with the fed stuff. let's mov

caroline: how much do we think mark carney is feeding into the external factors. hypothesizingeen whether the fed will delay its rate rising on the back of china. we are not particularly exposed in terms of the chinese evaluation but how much will global deflation feet into that? >> it takes quite a long time for import prices to be really reflected. the reasons white thinks he has more time to leave interest rates on hold. in the minutes of the recent meetings have suggested that they are taking into account this weakness and global deflationary forces but really the key thought at the moment is that in the u.k. economy itself it still isn't strong enough. >> to you agree with that jimmy? >> it will be strong enough in a year or so's time. >> and that is where they are supposed to be looking. i agree. we are not that far apart and when we think the first interest rate hike will happen but domestic pressure will be stronger than some are suggesting. caroline: when do you think mark carney will have to stop writing letters to george osborne? >> it will be sometime

mark carney and stanley fischer. to feel that inflation is not something to worry about too much. does that mean we can still see a move come september? what would that do for growth? sentiment is negative. a couple of stocks to watch for you. volkswagen is key among them. selling the state in suzuki motors. that could mean some cash coming their way. $3.8 billion overall. also, keep an eye on allianz. this is the insurer to their infrastructure on could be airport in for an nice. how much would they be willing to pay for that? anz could be set to move on the back of that news. interestingly, i want to focus on a few assets that should be a focus for investors this morning. commodities are continuing to drop. we are seeing copper coming off its lows. we are still down by .5%. we are likely to see oil on the downward trajectory as well. keep an eye on miners. the euro up .5%. yen, both being seen as they haven trade. the correlation between the yen and the euro is at its highest since early 2007. guy: thank you very m

is janet yellen quirky and witty e-mailing mark carney? i don't know.krainians pick up on the subtlety of the language. not to suggest there is a single hacker in ukraine. tom: inflation or labor center? quincy: it is very much labor center. tom: do you agree? olivia: i do not want to take an opinion. i'm picking him up on the bigger story. how do we get to 2% inflation? quincy: it is good for the u.s. it is good for the consumer. ultimately, it does help the u.s. economy. it.s face when we look at what is done well with lower oil prices, the restaurant index has done extremely well. it is not as if it does not matter. one thing we do forget. 1998 with russia. defaulting on the ruble denominated debt. oil that spring traded at $12 a barrel. what changed was china. suddenly china comes in. wto. oil prices start to skyrocket. is this abnormal? we have to get rid of this idea that china for now is not going to be the epicenter of demand. we have to look at economies differently now. tom: that goes too many of the notes saying china is following rather than

a look at mark carney during that and at the same time publish the inflation report.sting is that this time one of nine, only one of nine, was more hawkish, voting for a rate rise in the united kingdom. two hawks, usually one of those has turned more dovish overall. mark carney suggesting the pound will push the strength in the pound, as you've had strength in the dollar will push down inflation for some time to come. he said the likely timing of the first rate increase is drawing closer but the precise timing cannot be predicted in advance. it is data dependent. but the uk will raise rates in the first half of next year, importantly, that has shifted back as arguably the fed may or may not have done depending whether you listen to what lockhart said. the pound is at an eight-year high. the second-best performing currency after the swiss franc where we've traded over the week. you can see the way the pound has fallen. the earnings were mixed in europe. standout is the giant danish biotech down 12%, 13%, deutsche post is lowering guidance for the year. good news, the f

we are getting a press conference at the moment from mark carney. what came as a surprise is the dovish start of the bank of england. a record low. what was unexpected was only one member of the monetary policy committee actually voted for a rate rise. economists had been stacking at least two to vote for a ride. the bank of england has attributed this slightly more dovish stance to lower energy prices and a stronger pound. it cut its near-term inflation forecast because of that. listening to mark carney give his press conference right now. erik: thank you. we are looking for more headlines from the governor of the bank of england. in the meantime, the bank of america is pulling from one of its headlines. also, reviewing another one of polson's funds, liquidity. ,he bank is telling financial $80 million because of liquidy investments and volatility. a spokesman declined to comment. adidas golf business is hiring a bank to explore options. adidas slashed its forecast after revenue fell 26%. -- daily show's john to it stewart is -- jon officially sign

giving you 45 minutes to digest everything before governor mark carney begins his press conference.ors, brace yourselves. anna: we are braced. jonathan ferro will be back in 40 minutes time with "on the move." one of the things the bank of england is wrestling with his weakness in energy prices. we have heard from a number of companies. neste reporting. philip is onset. let's take these in turn and have a look at them. what do we hear from neste about business keeping its guidance for 2015? phillip: the refining business in general has benefited from the low oil prices. the joy of the downstream. they have lower costs of materials. it remains open how the story will continue. a lot of people say the refining margins will not continue in that way. neste is a special case because of the value fuels/ it is also producing high-quality fuels. anna: let's talk about london, the oil and gas company. interesting commentary about their numbers. update us on what they are saying about production. they are saying their production base will grow significantly at a time when it is falling. phili

caroline: jamie, how much does china play in the mark carney process echo -- process?ing to disappear in a years time. the bank is always looking to use ahead. -- looking to years ahead. it takes a year to pass through prices in the u.k. after a years time, that has happened. we do not worry too much about that. on growth, we don't have enormous exposure to exports from china. china start to pose stability, and it spreads to a it would pose greater risk to the u.k. recovery. worse, -- et guy: why are we expecting global inflation to rise? brisco i can think of lots of reasons, but i am extrapolating. i wonder where people think inflation is going to come from. >> take the u.k. example. you take a look at the index. a deflation environment. this is a disinflation environment. down.prices that is because of energy and food. also sterling has been strong. imports are coming in cheaply. there are little inflation being generated in the goods area. services prices are consistently rising at a rate above the target rate of inflation. other out, ofch course, because you're lo

if you devalue the currency and deflation, for the likes of mark carney it is getting difficult. don'tflation data says you dare. if it continues to stay around zero in china after those , -- the question is not what happens tomorrow, it is next weekend the months after. if this depreciation valuation continues. brendan: is there any sense that this news, a day and have hold, what this will mean for the engine of europe? --: it is important purchasing power is very important. also dilution of earnings. it is why you see the luxury good makers get hit today. it is why you see miners, those stocks getting crushed as well. tom: let me go to tim craighead in hong kong. we had just seen a sharp reaction, day two of the evaluation. give us a perspective how the stage managing this is an. are they in control of the markets, or are the markets in control of their destiny? tim: it is pretty fascinating. band that managed they set. from that perspective i have to believe they are in control. but the construct of what they did yesterday was sort of that shock -- and you think 2%, what is th

francine: we are still awaiting rate to have clues on what mark carney is going to do.: super thursday. francine: only two days away. we will have a slew of thinking out what bank of england monetary policy makers will do. 1.5590. on that weaker than expected construction pmi, the pound touched the day low. manus: we want to see what level of percent is on thursday if at all. in the meantime, luxury food -- lobster is becoming less costly. like all commodities -- clawed crustaceans are more susceptible to market conditions. so, you might not be able to afford that much longer. tom gibson reports. >> 16, 17. to: from london all the way beijing, demand for lobsters is that long time highs. been driven mostly by chinese buyers. > that's chinese. tom: lobsters bought in north atlantic water are 1/3 the cost. catches started to grow. canadians you can get all year-round. so, it's a good base for lobsters. we will have canadians throughout the year. in recent years, low prices mean more of us can afford what was once the highest in society. >> when i was growing up, lobster w

like mark carney did, does he essentially voice what mark carney did?is a fear because of all of this money printing that there is this inflation problem, and there isn't one. if you look at the wage data and commodity prices, we don't have an inflation issue. brendan: then why does the fed need to move? >> it is not that they need to move in order to address inflation, the question is, does -- is the policy consistent with economic reality? the economic reality is, we are not in 2009 anymore where we need life support will stop you pull that life support and economists will do just fine anyway. tom: i would be remiss if i did not ask about the canadian housing market. you have experts in toronto and montrÉal, canadian-wide. the charts are stunning stop is it for real? is it a bubble? >> i've been talking to canadians about it since i've been there. consumers are more livered in an economy -- typically their more conservative. it seems to be reasonably healthy. as long as oil doesn't fall apart or the economy doesn't fall apart, and it doesn't look like

here are some of the highlights from governor mark carney. his meeting yesterday, they voted by a majority to maintain bank rates at .5%. they voted unanimously to maintain, and it reaffirmed expectations of when bank rate rises occurred, it it can be expected to be limited and gradual. near-term outlook for inflation is muted. the falls and energy prices over the past few months will continue to bear down on inflation, at least until the middle of next year. a range of measures suggest that medium-term inflation expectations main will anchored. -- remain well anchored. sterling has depreciated 3.5% since may and 20% since its trough in march of 2013. the drag on import prices will continue to push down on inflation for some time to come, posing a downside risk to its near-term path in particular. as the u.k. expansion progresses, speculation about the precise timing of the first move and bank rates is increasing. this is understandable, as another welcome sign of an economy returning to normal. the likely timing of the first bank rate increa

mark carney of the bank of england facing the same challenge as vice-chairman stanley fischer and all of the fed. lower,check, futures -14. the futures -120. the euro, a little bit of a bid. a little bit of a risk off feel. oil with a big bounce yesterday churning a little bit of red, .reen, red, green 50 intraday.up to the spread between brand and west texas intermediate, five dollars or so. the economies made in wyoming. reinhart,o carmen james bullard, and green. of calm. we are thrilled to bring you from citigroup bill lee, their head of north american economics. ofning us as mike reagan bloomberg news. mike: do you remember "ballad of bob dylan, there is something going on but you do not know what it is. you are left to trade on basically computerized trading programs that do not care about price valuation. momentum following strategies. this is the case laid out by a strategist at j.p. morgan. he said it started late last week with what is known as gamma hedging. tom: the accelerations within the market -- hedging the second derivative. can we talk counselors on a friday? -- can

i was taken by mark carney's first headline yesterday. he went right to it, there is no inflation. a new photo editor. is she any good? vonnie: yeah, she is really great. she will not be lexi, but -- elizabeth is going to be with us for a long time. it is on twitter. here are the top three photos for the day. planetary nebula is called the southern owl nebula. it was captured by the european space observatory in chile. almost fourmeter of light years. tom: what does that mean? brendan: you know what it means, tom. four years for light to reach from one end to the other. vonnie: exactly. it is the setting you would have to put on the explorer or whatever it is. light yearss four for the air conditioner switch at home to turn the air conditioning off. vonnie: one billion gallons of orange colored wastewater was released in colorado. it contains settlement and metals, and health officials told users to avoid the water until it passes. i cannot imagine there are no prospectors down there. brendan: do you really need to be told to avoid that water? tom: exactly. they are not recreationa

everyone focused on that 8-1 vote but if you listened to mark carney he was very hawkish and blatant in his view that markets need to think about a rate hike. is only caveat i would say it is highly unlikely they would preempt the fed. so if the fed delays are tightening i think the bank of england will need to delay that as well to jon: when i look at euro sterling, as far as you are concerned you keep your conviction short draghi, along carney? >> it is the trade but it is a tricky one. be theter trade would sterling against something like the australian dollar. this is what we put out. -- long sterling versus the australian dollar. it is currently coming close to 220 but we think it goes much higher. over the medium-term it could go to 250. jon: what is the target? >> certainly we think maybe the next two months but a longer one may take significantly longer. jon: thank you very much for joining us this morning. nextg up in the show, up picture of the global jobs number. monsanto steps away from sergeant to after its final rejection. they miss estimates as china slows. 30 minutes

here is mark carney at the news conference in 90 seconds. >> at the meeting yesterday, the mpc voted majority to maintain the bank rate at 9.5%. they voted unanimously to maintain. it reaffirmed its expectation that when the rate rises occur they can expect it to be limited. near-term outlook for inflation is muted. the fall and energy prices will continue to bear down on inflation, at least until the middle of next year. nonetheless, a range of measures suggest that medium-term expectations remain accurate. appreciated 3.5% since may. but he percent since march 2013. the drag on import prices will continue to push down on inflation for some time to come. building a downside risk for its near-term path. as the u.k. expansion progresses, speculation about the timing of the first move and bank rates increasing. this is understandable, and a welcome to sign for an economy that is returning. the likely timing of the first bank rate increase is drawing closer. however, the exact timing for the first move cannot be predicted in advance. the music there is just as depressing as the news con

announced the following day at noon giving you 45 minutes to digest all of the details before governor mark carneyegins his press conference. traders, investors and economists, brace yourselves. i will see if my guests are. let's bring in credit -- kevin durant. for more on that rate hike debate first to you. super thursday. doesn't make life easier or harder? >> i think it will be very exciting. we love that in financial markets. the foreign exchange markets are very efficient. some they're looking for to how sterling the interest rates market or acting in particular. >> am looking at sunday forward. the first rate hike riced in for may. we are about september for the fed. the dates are kind of the same and yet a huge disconnect for when people are talking about when the fed will move in when the bank of england will military >> wife >> the difference for me is the bank of england uses a macro production policy and the fed doesn't use that there there is more incentive to not raise them in the u.k.. i think it is a mistake and i think that explains the reason the disconnect between those two mark

but from the ecb talking tomorrow and mark carney. all of this will be in the rounds. when is the fed going to raise rates? is the ecb prepared to do more. it will dictate market sentiment into early next week. >> financial volatility combined with greater political uncertainty, will that have an effect on consumer confidence going forward? >> we'll have to see. at the moment the flow for europe and the u.s. remains positive. for august it was surprisingly robust but that was all around services. the recoveries we're seeing are around business services which are less impacted by everything going on in global trade in china. so just be interesting to see how much we can see them continue to lead. the ecb will have to respond by doing more at some point. >> keep european stocks afloat despite the volatility in the last couple of days. >> in theory they should and ecb is doing qe so very different than the u.s. and the u.k. if anything they'll step up the bond buying program and money supply growth in the euro zone remains robust. we saw that yesterday in the data release

if mark carney starts getting concerned, you could see further attempts to try to curtail those gains sense of -- they are showing they are concerned about any sort of property bubble. they know that interest rates isn't the best tool. it is kind of a blunt tool. it is not necessarily dealing with the problem. you don't really impact the bit you are trying to impact and you negatively impact the bit that would cause consumption around the economy. it is looking at the policies they looked at. there are things they could try to put in place as they start to hike interest rates. it is going to be a balancing act. caroline: thank you very much. the asset class that we love so much in the u.k., the topic of most dinner parties, party. on "countdowncome ," germany votes on the greek bailout. we will look ahead to what is likely a busy week despite it being august. see you in a moment. ♪ guy: it is 7:46 in london. it is monday morning. what do you need to know? japan's economy contracted last quarter as consumers and businesses cut spending. gdp fell 1.6% between january and march, ending t

mark carney, laying the groundwork to hike interest rates. back to you.at oil and grease. tom: west texas intermediate maybe five dollars away. some of that wrapped into greece. you know the economic data we see later, the united states with a speech this morning. there is ferocious push back to what the president wants to do. francine: germany's second-largest lender has doubled its profits, beating estimates. the bank has warned that there will be more cost-cutting measures as it works to enjoy profitability. on the phone, commerce bank's chief financial officer. thank you for joining us. talk to me about cost. you expected above 7 billion euros. >> we keep investing in digitalization for our customer segments. >> do you expect the cost to continue increasing? >> it is too early for 2016 guidance. can we beef up our continued improvement in such a way that we keep it under firm control. francine: do you think it will be flat? are you concerned these may continue creeping up? >> we expect cost to be above slightly 7 billion. it is probably too early to g

tom: stan fisher says he has real concerns as mark carney does about a lack of inflation.service sector inflation they can give him cover to raise rates? >> i do not agree with this deflationary bogeyman even if my good friend stan fisher is the one bringing it up. nominal gdp growth has been strong and significantly positive. what you think the big spike in inflation is coming from. >> inflation is very noisy and if you look at the longer term expectations, 1.5 to 2% has been the constant and that is not changing. vonnie: so white raise rates? >> with respect to where we are from a per's a taylor rule or other perspective where behind the curve. that is not to say that you want to stop being accommodative but we are currently four percentage points accommodative it tom: thisis critical because sam fisher invented this phrase altra accommodative will be the ramifications to our listeners and viewers daily lives? i cannot figure out what changes? >> all rates will start to move up when the fed increases rates but if they do it slowly it will not have a big immediate effect.

a they could take lesson from mark carney.ing coming off have to explain what you are doing. into: keep on bumping those central bankers. francine: i have seen it fishing pictures of our own reporters with central bankers. i'm expecting great things from you. live from jackson hole, wyoming. get the hiking boots out. that is it from the team on "the pulse." keep it here on bloomberg tv. there will be lots to come from jackson hole. that is the key focus for markets. francine: we will speak to the indian central bank governor later on. we're looking forward to that interview. keep it right here on bloomberg. ♪ announcer: this is bloomberg "surveillance." august.ays of vix from 14 to 41. a tumultuous week. we look forward to janet yellen's decision. chair yellen is not in jackson hole. an extended conversation with james bullard of the st. louis fed. this is bloomberg "surveillance," live from new york. i am tom keene. joining the is not a twin. -- joining the is vonnie twin. national bowtie day. i went british today. vonnie: ve

you sought mark carney deal with that. a challenge how the u.k. and u.s.st rates and the path from there is the big issue as well. manus: tom, have a good one. we look forward to those interviews. fran and i are going to be tweeting everything. two great interviews that nobody wants to miss. francine: china stocks may have posted their biggest two-day gain in almost a month. inflation data shows there was a in exports last month when the country saudis steepest decline -- saw the steepest decline in nearly 60 years. from standard charter and joining us in hong kong, how do you interpret the movement? >> we see a weak spot following a broad-based sign in previous demand. there's 3 billion that is disappointing. that is because of the high base in last july. inflation started to rise. what would be the assessment of the government? we think the government appears to be more worried about downside risk to growth than upside risks to inflation. that is indicated in the quantity of monetary policy publishedthe pboc last friday. we continue using buyers of polic

we heard mark carney talk a lot about the strong pound and how that is impacting on bank of england policye have heard anything along those lines from the fed yet. maybe we will. so far they seem relaxed. >> because america is a price make r. not a price breaker. import a lot of our inflation here. it would be strange if that wasn't the reaction. francine: are you concerned that what we have seen is a little more sinister? they are trying to grapple with something we don't really know about but they know much lower growth? >> i think the problem of low growth has been on the policy make rs agenda for months and month. it looks like the u.s. is going to struggle to grow at more than 2, 2.5%. europe, 1 to 1.5%. i think policy makers are struggling with that. they feel so much monetary stimulus. that things should be a little bit stronger. kathy: just look at emerging market currency. the 10 most traded currencies, take the i know out of the basket. he longest losing streak since 19973730%, to 50% drops from here. are we at the beginning of the next big leg lower in merging currencies? >> the

figure that will be closely watched by mark carney.ney: our objective is to have inflation -- not at zero percent. bringated objective is to information -- input --inflation back. the inflation can be explained by the prices of commodities and imported goods since last year. this temporary period of below target inflation has provided a wealth boost to real incomes. the near-term outlook is muted. it would not be surprising if we have another month or two of negative inflation. given the very substantial moves in oil prices and the changes to some utility prices as well. we have seen big moves in oil, but also changes to utility prices. francine: let's bring in the chief investment strategist michael franklin and january. thanks so much for sticking around. let's kick off with you. what are we expecting and how -- to oil? owing nto jamie: the bloomberg survey is putting prices at 0% inflation. and that is where we are internally. theory does tend a surprise. you can get plus .1 or .2, but it tends not to be related to domestic cost pre

leavy his harsh criticism of what mark carney is doing. and for that matter, janet yellen.september-december debate either washington, and how that reacts to what we saw yesterday in the markets. manus: we look forward to that. i wonder, will goldman -- it could be $10, tom. we look forward to that show. "surveillance" coming up at the top of the hour. let's go deeper into the emerging market currency story. it is were the worst years since 1997. the selloff is spreading from asia to chile. how long will the slide last? where will it go next? a little bit with more. welcome to the pulse. this roller coaster of selloff is gathering pace. is it nearly done, or what is your view? >> i believe that we will have much more to see in the selloff or the global selloff of emerging-market currencies. this is a key scene for us for the emerging market are since may of 2015. since the summer, anticipating the selloff. driven by china and said years. i believe that we have another 5% or 10% to fall in the emerging market currencies. manus: another 5% or 10% lower. i am looking at the sp

equities bonds -- marking down the euro call to 1.05. off yellen and carney. onto to the next screen, and i want to set the tone for "surveillance" today. gold south. brazil real is just one indicator of what this is doing away from strong dollar. brendan: if you search on the terminal for stories with the word "lockhart" in them -- dennis lockhart speaking yesterday -- australian dollar rises, gold falls the whole world shifted when he spoke. tom: this is a chart i have done for years. this is trade-weighted broad dollar. this is china. here is a rubin dollar, and here is the latest dollar move. all you need to know in logarithmic august is this is the move of the rubin dollar. you can bring this right over and it shows you how much we have done so far of the so-called strong dollar. brendan: you talked about it is not just a dollar story, it is all of the various crosscurrents. does this story shifts two years from now when mario draghi make the difference? olivia: that is the challenge for janet yellen. this is not transitory. tom: right now it is a dollar