mark: mark carney addressed lawmakers and he showed flashes of discontent and he was jake and reese cob. buildersssentially versus the ftse 250, which are more domestic oriented stocks, which will be hit harder. since february 11, we have seen these two indices rise between 12 and 16%. are there risks here? alan: the bottom line is that markets are discounting remains and notwithstanding the goldman accusation. the markets are now discounting remain. -- and youn the are seeing the homebuilders come back. to your point, if it is brexit, it is now a huge risk. the market is largely positioning itself for a remain. that day would be a very dramatic day. mark: i did promise our viewers to ask you why markets are rallying today? alan: no obvious reason, but sometimes on a daily basis, it can be hard. i do think this negative sentiment is key. it shows quite simply that there is a lot of bears out there already positioned short. you have to have a few marginal buyers to push the market higher. mark: thanks for joining us. alan higgins is a chief investment officer. still ahead, the ecb is giv

we get the rate announcement and hear from mark carney.course, the brexit debate has loomed large in over markets. and the outlook of the central bank's rate -- joining us with the latest is the lead u.k. economist from unicredit. thank you so much for coming and. this is extremely complicated for mark carney because he cannot be seen to get a political message, and yet he may have to change his forecast. --thank you so much for coming in. >> i think he will focus on the short-term impact of brexit, which would be huge uncertainty. the bank has always said it will not give projections of the impact of the u.k. economy. but he could say something about the short-term. we would expect him to say that. huge uncertainty and the impact the answer and he would have on the u.k. economy which is negative. francine: what exactly are you expecting from the boe today? are you expecting a unanimous vote? other economists are respected one person to vote for a rate cut. i you expecting them to down. -- to downgrade their forecasts? >> there are few dou

mark carney: i understand the question.to be clear, we discuss the economics of that risk scenario. to have a richer appreciation of that. so we had a rigorous discussion around that, supported by analysis. we didn't develop a full protection, to be absolutely clear. but we had that discussion. we didn't then translate that into monetary policy, because the only decision we are making are about the circumstances here and now. what is the appropriate stance of monetary policy as we are today, given the central forecast? and it was clear to all the members of the committee, as you saw with the announcement today the popularte, that stance is to maintain the rate as it is. >> you have gone further than you went in the scottish referendum and you have gone further than before on the eu referendum. is this what people look to for independent news on the economy? maybe being embroiled in controversial politics? mark carney: i would flip that 180 degrees. this is the biggest risk in the judgment of the independent financial policy

you would like to think that mark carney's words would carry a lot of weight with the voters.igherd see a bigger pop in cable as we had toward the referendum and people look at the new term or from -- ramifications. i agree nobody can tell what the long-term or medium-term ramifications of brexit could be, the shorter term is easier to forecast, and mostly affected by that where it matters, in the wallet. swaps indicating there is a 40% chance of a rate cut this year, no chance of a rate hike. is that similar to what you are thinking? ms. kelly: i think so, and certainly it has become more challenging for mark carney if we do see britain leave the eu because you will be met with higher inflation rates and lower growth rates, and you would have to make a decision as to which one is the worst scenario. i would imagine that lower rates are going to be coming in some way, shape, or form. i would expect to see votes to that extent, even if the u.k. designs to remain. thank you for joining us. brenda kelly, analyst at london capital group. vonnie: time for the latest bloomberg busin

rex it dominates any and all that mark carney can do. -- brexit dominates any and all that mark carney arabia on brazil. adam sieminski and robert hormats. this is bloomberg "surveillance" live from our world headquarters in new york on thursday, may 12. i am tom keene. francine, all focus is on brasilia. francine: all we needed was a central majority for her to face forl, to face impeachment corruption charges. we had 50 54 impeachment against 22. impeachment for against 22. i do not know if she will resign. tom: here is nejra cehic. the latest from brazil, president dilma rousseff has been suspended from office and faces a trial in the senate. senators voted to impeach rousseff, who is accused of illegally using loans to cover the budget deficit. she will be suspended for 180 days and it is unlikely she will win the trial. she will be replaced by vice emer.dent michel tm he will inherit the worst deficit in decades. controversial labor reforms two days after protesters battled police over the measures. hollande ran the proposal through the lower house of government saying it would be

governor mark carney is back in front of the mps today.market open will go this morning, not very far. european markets close negative yesterday it looks like a close negative this morning as well. keep an eye and deutsche bank and unit credit. the finance sector is firmly in focus. let's get you those morning numbers. it looks like it's going to be a light start to the morning. those are the numbers. 0.1% buther less than will soften a little bit. in the meantime let's get details about how these markets are trading. you say, there is a bit of a week legacy from asia. we saw them drop for the first time in three days. it looks like it is a pretty broad-based set of losses. likee moment, it looks i.t. and financials are leading the losses but every industry group is down today. it is red across the board. let's look at some of the stocks we are watching at the open. i look at the deutsche bank in a minute. what we've got here, first quarter sales of 2.7 billion pounds. that is broadly in line with estimates. , b and q saleser up 3.6%. bit

anything that mark carney says about brexit will be largely in focus.morgan volatility. 11%, it is actually poised to drop for the fourth week in five. this is ahead of that boe decision, and the g-7 leaders meeting in japan towards the end of this month. that fx volatility dropping, some traders hoping for new impetus before they make any more big news. anna: thanks very much. let us talk little bit about what is happening in the u.k. at the moment. stocks are trading at multiyear lows. we have some breaking news for you before we get to that. we are getting some numbers coming through from the dutch insurance business, impacted by lower outreach equity markets. according to the management, and that has resulted in numbers coming in below market estimates. the net profit at the insurance business is 143 million euros. the estimate was for 328 million. keep an eye on that one. the company blaming lower than average equity markets and increasing, they say, higher earnings from europe. duer earnings from america, to one-time items and lower markets during

now, in his strong the morning at, mark carney -- in his st rongest warning yet, mark carney has warnedhe brexit. is inturally, the boe independent. here is the governor talking about possible risks. >> the mpc judges that the most significant risk to the forecasts concerns they referendum. with macroeconomic indicators to be less informative than usual. the committee is currently reacting more cautiously to data releases than would normally be the case. we are not making a judgment, forecast, or assessment of the longer-term economic consequences of either decision. nor will we make that determination, but we havea a responsibility explicitly in statue to talk about the risks and the trade offs that monetary policy faces. leaving the economic union could have the material effects on the exchange rate, the demand, and the economy's supply potential. they could affect the appropriate setting of monetary policy. is a judgment not based on a whim. is based on rigorous analysis and careful consideration. it is a judgment of the independent mpc and all members of the mpc. of course, there is

haswhile, mark carney defended himself against the critics.id that leaving the eu -- a trigger a recession recession. aref we are changing and we raising capital against these risks and we are changing the becauseinterest rates of that, we have a duty to explain that to the british people. >> the mayor of manchester has didn't -- requested an inquiry. the police say that a package was a device that was from an earlier exercise. you can find more stories on our website. >> we were hearing from our they are saying positive commentary and outlook. in themained confident trend with the business. there is a potentially adverse impact for the european union. british land story. heidi has the story for us. seee're starting to earnings underway and uncertainty over policy with japan and china. through withing three weeks of declines. we are seeing a resurgence of positive sentiment and they hope stimulateorts to markets. there is news. happened, they really brushed off the negative data. one that was aly mess. wesaw asia turned flat and can take a qui

mark carney has found himself in political hot water.o blows verbally certain members of the campaign. he defended himself saying he is spelling out the risks as he sees them for the bank of england. do you think he has a point, a role to play? >> yes, i think he has to balance it. he has the call it out as he sees it and the potential impact he is hearing from other central bankers and market participants . the consequences could be this. from our perspective, it is a political decision. position, thate is our formal house view, but we do think on balance that remains. is whatthe reason others have made which is about the uncertainty that exist. the element is on a 10 year view, we would be fine. we will work our way through, we have a great history of a trading nation. joining the euro previously. the problem is we cannot get away in the short-term from the likes of morgan stanley staying. we would have to change our jurisdiction related to the operations in a different location. what that does to investment in the u.k. is significant.

mark carney is likely to find that again today.hey are more likely to quiz him on brexit and the bank's role. tom: what you have done for years is linked in financial and banks into our broader economics. fold in the eu banking tension and what the british banks are facing as well into a slower economy and the austerity that is out there, link the two together when we see a deutsche bank ground -- downgrade but see government -- governor carney speaking about some optimism. u.k. andnks in the obviously in the may 9 of europe remain under pressure from their shareholders, regulators, and those in the u.k. are having to think about brexit. hsbc is pretty much alone saying it would move on thousand people to paris straightaway on a vote to leave the eu. other banks talking about it in quite vague terms. they are pulling back on research and the like so the banks probably are trying to look through it but at the same time know what they would have a huge manifestation in how they do their business. tom: what are the pressures on govern

mark carney suggesting a brexit could cause a recession.old political intervention or is he just stating facts? decision thatery you would be taking about the economy if you decide to pull out of europe. say a big political and economic decision could have a take affect would be the normal thing to say. he gets repeated through the media so it sounds very pro-one political camp. expectationse your on what will happen on the 23rd? i was reminded about how the voting was in 1975. vote to stay in at that point. the polls are now suggesting some more elements. moret the left -- some balance. think we could also ask ourselves, let us say that they do that but i'm not a huge margin -- will that resolved the issue or not? i remember the referendum on scotland did not stop the debate. anna: and also in canada. some -- sum it up. if that were the case, there would be a political debate and turmoil that would come with that. anna: what about the financial services industry -- we here at various views on both sides. it comes down to whether you want t

up, everyone from mark carney to barclays weighs in on the u.k. referendum. have those comments. ecb vices the president. that's a quick look at european equity markets. stocks are rising today as the euro falls against the dollar. we've had some better than expect news from the likes of kingfisher. they reported better-than-expected quarterly sales. performing is included and i will show those in --. we continue to focus on deutsche bank. it was downgraded at movies. the european clothes is minutes away. stay with us. ♪ shery: it is 11:00 a.m. in new york, for clock in london, and 11:00 p.m. in hong kong. i'm sherry and standing in for betty liu. i'm mark barton you're watching the european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪ mark: we are going to take you from new york to london next hour. here is what we are watching today. russia is returning to the international bond market. one bank is making it happen. we would give you the latest on the. at. shery: green across the board with tech and financials leading the gains. european shares are also higher thanks to

the pound, even before mark carney was speaking, was rocketing higher on the back of that. is market on the fx side only data, but it does appear as if that gap is beginning to grow. maybe dr. carney has less to worry about. jonathan: yesterday the treasury put out a report on the short-term consequences, four quarters of slow growth. they didn't assume what the central bank would or would not do. did we get anything on what the appropriate policy response would be? guy: i don't think he was going to be clear on what the policy would be. you can understand why that would be the case. if you are a central bank governor, you want to commit to a policy response. you don't know what the actual reaction will be. you don't know how the economy will go. in some ways, you can argue the treasury is the correct way to go. you can't really deal with any detail because you don't know what the story is going to be looking like, and you can't perceive what the central bank is going to react to. that will be the message you get from carney as well. jonathan: guy johnson, thank you. ,avid:

i'm not surprised that mark carney or christine lagarde would reference it.e: the problem, sometimes, is that when you look at figures and charts, you can let them say what you want. this is something that the ers have been arguing. what is the strongest piece of advice for an economist looking at the brexit? trade, value loss, st irling? we cannot be very precise about how beneficial the single market has been, but we can be confident we have benefited from it a lot. the economic case remaining. francine: will it be difficult to do trade deals? it is unclear. you have arguments on both sides over whether how much this would hit gdp, right? negotiate trade deals you are in limbo for number of years. prof. yates: the uncertainty will way on the economy as these things way out. -- weight o out. it is not my expertise. , which has notnt been made clear. the uncertainty will weight anonymously -- will weigh enormous lay on the economy. fromhas britain benefited brussels? ando 15 years of stumbling now regulation -- and mal regualtion by brussels? prof. yates: my

had similar things from president obama, and then mark carney.ifficult is it to see what the future looks like post brexit? have said it is difficult to unpick precisely where the u.k. could end up post brexit. there have been a variety of studies looking at that. the most details tend to be in the same direction, regardless, there are different types of trade negotiations you could go down. you end up with a significant negative shock. >> through investor flows is impressive. you can't model the potential outcomes. it is difficult to. the way investors react is fascinating. capital flows have been stronger than normal. the only place we have seen change in behavior is on the investors aree head turning. francine: volatility has increased quite a bit. it is very heavily skewed. investors are trying to protect them. it is the same thing. francine: is it almost impossible to make the argument that the u.k. becomes very competitive, more competitive than it is now. >> it is difficult to find a new negotiated position whereby the u.k. has a better se

where mark carney will be scrutinized by both sides of the brexit debate. the concern the outcome taking a toll on recent services. investor looking for 30 year bonds has made them, they were to one manager, the most expensive on earth. local said they want more. it is maturing and 15 years or more comedy on the one in the nation with positive yield. leaving investors little choice but to buy. will selling securities at a low today. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find the stories at bloomberg top . that right to see now is going to positive territory. it is been talking about in brazil, and looks like -- what am i talking about, he could become a getting in the brazilian. but the stock is beginning to jump a little bit now. there will be talking to a little bit later on this t has popped renaul back. that is one of the positive stories coming out of the french economy this morning. caroline: fascinating come opportunistic, we've been speaking about much of that whenever

meanwhile, mark carney defends the bank of england against critics, serious about his warnings of theosed by brexit. this comes after he said leaving the eu - could trigger a recession. we spoke to andrew mark. >> if we are taking a judgment as a committee and changing policy because we are putting billions of pounds of liquidity facilities and are getting banks to raise capital as we did a few years ago against these types of risk it could potentially alter the path of interest rates or other instruments of monetary policy because of certain things, that we have a duty to explain that to the british people into parliament. tom: global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . guy: thank you very much. tom mackenzie. steven major is still with us -- we need to talk about the gilt market. earlier on we were showing you what we thought the market thinks the u.s. 10 euros going. let me show up where the expectation is. stephen, these two stories look very, very similar. >>

already, mark carney has been shouted down.'s talk more about the ramifications of this brexit debate. joining us now is the strategist from citigroup. michael, talk to us about where you see guilts going. down a little bit. where do we see this in the longer term? michael: first of all, talking we have ait, i think 30% to 40% probability of the brexit happening. that is quite a close call. guilts, wef think the front end of the curve showed it replicate -- and of the curve should replicate. we don't have any supply coming into the market until july. therefore, this point of the curve looks quite attractive. euro bondut the scenario isbrexi slowing down economic growth. there we have seen some sort of relative weakness for the irish government bond market, but also for the spanish government bond market. as i said, brexit is not the only case. guy: guy, in london. caroline: guy, please. guy: the market has performed reasonably well. how would you expect guilds to trade post brexit? with this outperformance actually carry on? pu

francine: how difficult it mark carney's job right now? could rise to they could fall very quickly. james: that's right. it could go either way. if we leave, it could be lower. there is a lot of political flak coming up. if i don't stand, they will say i am being political. he is being caught in a bad spot politically. francine: why do we see much volatility because of the debate being carried out on the currency? james: i'm surprised the country has not been more volatile. we saw that through the last six months. the pulse of been suggesting it could be more inclined to stay in. i think in general the story is looking ok. the currency is where when i expect more volatility as we get closer to the vote. francine: if it happens, what does that mean for currency? what we know is the u.k. has a very big account deficit. were not in a very healthy situation in the first place. then the uncertainty about what happens to work fully as. it does make it a troubling time for sterling. it could be that magnitude. difficult is your job over the next

pound weakening ahead of inflation report and comments from mark carney.ote yield saw buying yesterday on the back of that selloff in stocks which was interesting given when we see stocks rally you don't see a big selloff in 10 year treasuries. so you see the treasury market a little more pessimistic with its view on the world. and adding to that as been a rally for gold this year. and a brand new report finding global gold demand soar to its highest first quarter total on record. more than off setting near 20% decline in buying. >> overall i'd say as well the other thing to focus on are the last three days we've seen much higher volumes in markets. remember about two months ago we were saying, you know, we're not seeing any conviction in markets. we're seeing higher volumes. i wonder because we've had so many companies reporting. a last big push because people take time off for summer or whether there was serious bearishness. >> you could say the same with bullishness. because yesterday sharp decline came after one of the strongest rallies in months. a ma

and mark carney saying a brexit is denial. you've got the economic risks.resident obama speaking about how we'd be in the back of the queue with regards to trade. surely they're not all wrong. these are smart global leaders. >> i think there's an element of group think from all of this. there are different motivations. the head of the mif christine lagarde, they're in the euro. when we were contemplating the euro a dozen years ago. it was the same call. the department of ministry was in favor. the financial times completely in favor. most economists completely in favor. the prime minister, in favor. it was the same thing, the euro doesn't work. but so cost sophisticated, people couldn't see for a currency, you need a government. and look what's happening now. real trouble. so, this group think amongst and the great and the good is very dangerous. democracy works. what mark carney thinks, he thought that when unemployment in britain got down to 7%, interest rates go up. it's 5% and they still haven't gone up. he won't get a job as a clairvoyant. >> what bett

think does have an influence and there was a recent poll that suggested of independent people, mark carneyh up on the list, so whatever your view is to whether he's slightly opinionated or not, people do listen to his opinion. >> it's not like he's weighing in on a presidential election. this is a fundamental election with costs. therefore, for him not to raise a risk as he does all other global risks that would affect the uk economy would not be doing his job. >> he's definitely pushing the boundaries. but either way, the other person on a similar poll who people will voice their opinion on, we would like to hear from her majesty, but she will stay out. >>> president obama took a couple swipes at donald trump during a commencement speech yesterday without mentioning the presidential hopeful by name. >> suggesting we can build an endless wall along our borders and blame our challenges on immigrants, that doesn't just run counter to our history as the world's melting pot, it contradicts the evidence that our growth and our innovation and our dynamism has been spurred by our ability to attra

it is like mark carney talking about global warming. either you are in or you're not.d've been reasonable as beforeor king did governor carney to stay out of these issues. but if you are in, there is no point in pretending to be indecisive. francine: this is the main concern for central banks, including janet yellen? dr. posen: i said this to you guys when we talked around the imf spring meetings. brexit is hugely important for the future of europe. for carney it is important but it is not a global systemic issue. i do not know why the fund bank s made such a big issue of it. i'm personally committed against the brexit decision. i'm very concerned about the u.k. tom: thank so much. with the peterson institute. adam posen. coming up in our next hour, we look at the corporate world of europe, the challenges of global products. adidas's herbert hainer will join us. we look at oil. softer. oil down $43.50 on west texas intermediate. with markets on the move, bloomberg "surveillance." ♪ tom: let the currency war continue. beijing weekends. renminbi, emerging markets across

the pro-brexit campaigner said both wanted to undermine europe on one authority. >>> meanwhile, mark carney insists he's not overstepping the market of politics by weighing in on the brexit debate. the governor of england says his remarks were carefully referenced on friday. carney denied being linked too closely to the treasury. >> we are absolutely independent. it is an independent committee and we are not linked to the bigger questions about the longer-term economic impact of being in or out. what we're doing is we're identifying risks around leave and we're taking steps as an institution to mitigate those risks. >>> and donald trump has said that if he wins the presidential race, britain leaving the european union wouldn't impact any potential trade deals between the uk and the u.s. it appears in the morgan interview on iptv, he said he would treat everybody fair regardless of the eu membership. >> with me they will be treated fantastically well. i'm going to treat everybody fairly but it wouldn't make any difference to me whether they were in the eu or not. >> we wouldn't be back in th

as mark carney called in the u.k., the generosity of strangers to fund these deficits.hey are wholly relied on international confidence. a beacon ofrovided stability, but clearly, with such a drag on the economy through the current account , i think,does require greater transparency for policymakers over the medium-term direction. investors being uncertain on who is in the leadership in a two-week. -- two-week period is unhelpful. anna: i was showing a little bit earlier on a chart of what has been happening to bond markets in turkey. we have seen an increasing appetite for turkish markets, including turkish assets over the last few months or so. we will see how quickly the fed is going to ramp up its policy. the two are very related, aren't they? simon: they are. the ongoing theme of a hunt for yield in emerging markets has driven investors. but, there must be constant vigilance. these yields are there for a reason in the current globally low rate environment. i have also got another charge for you. growthgence in global stoking equity swings. we have the yen against t

that do for mark carney? mark carney dancing around the elephant in the room.n is the first rate hike coming in echo is the market pricing it in correctly -- coming in? is the market pricing it incorrectly? ramin: there are various ways to think of this. if we do have the exit, they will be very cautious. they are much less likely to hike in the near-term, unless we see large outflows. there would be weakening of growth in the u.k. and that is what we would expect. in that case, -- what the bank of england would have to do. if we do stay in, there is much more like an -- likelihood there is a hike. that is a primary effect on the market. guy: the u.k. economy is slowing, isn't it? people byre seeing yield -- buy gild. it is a global problem. that is why we are looking for assets where they don't give you the extra growth in this low, nominal growth world. that is equity in europe. guy: we will come back and talk about what that is in a moment. we are moments away from the start of european trading. 11 minutes to go. we need to take a look. the italian bank firm

came out with it sharpest warning yet, really, that a departure from the european -- governorcost mark carneyays that a brexit would have material consequences. the bank of england has slashed its growth forecast for the uk's economy this year from 2.2% to 2%. a former british finance minister has criticized kearny' -- carney remarks, saying that the governor should be careful not to's cause a crisis, but carney says it is his duty to warn about upcoming risks. >> the judgment is not based on -- it is a judgment not based on a whim. it is based on rigorous analysis on careful consideration. and it is the judgment of the independent mtc, i will make that very clear. also this thursday, the bank of england kept its benchmark interest rate steady. if we look further at the brexit issue, british broadcaster itv says advertisers are holding back spending ahead of the june referendum. itv says execs advertising revenues to be fairly flat during the first half of the year. just two months ago the company expected the european football championships to lift at sales. if we stick to the u.k., british

mark carney spent time defending the independence after members of the the campaign called for him tois post after the bank of india's governor said that the brits it could lead to a recession. could be to a recession. , the day business lobby in the u.k. speaking out in favor of staying in the eu, cutting forecasts, echoing the trends we have seen from others. it is going to be a big week in the u.k. labor data coming on wednesday. i took a lot of uncertainty over the u.k. manus: there is one market always and focused, oil. is nigeria -- more than saudi you go this is going to cause contention. >> i can imagine. this is what people talk about on a daily basis but according to our colleague, talking about how actually what is happening in the niger delta, attacks leading to output -- he says that matters a lot more than what is happening in the king of saudi arabia right now. new generation of militants once again coming to lots with the president in his attempt to clamp down on corruption. exxon and shall introducing force majeure. its needs nigeria to meet obligations in terms of no

that's a big overall by mark carney. this is the last piece of the jigsaw. ll only be eight meetings, in line with the fed. betty: what do we have to talk about? mark: we can have a rest. behindthey have left mega-buyouts and they have jumped into alternative asset management. they have invested in airbnb and spotify. seeat down with the ceo to what is next. >> the industry has grown up. become more complex. when i started in this business, we spent all of our time talking about why avid equity. anymore abouting whether it should be in the industry. it's how much and how to do it. it's become much more complex. should they do direct? there is a much more robust set of discussions about the relationship aspects of alternatives generally. >> going back five or six years ago, it was a different time. how are the opportunities changing? >> it was a risk on time. we were coming out of a recession. we were proud of what we did. as we got later in the cycle, the markets have level that. we are in a stock makers market. you have to find disruptions and interesting co

what's important is how mark carney gets around this referendum. some say he's been too political, he says he hasn't. how is he going to try to debate the referendum. he will certainly be quizzed about it when it is such an uncertainty. >> the reality is that the bank of england publish that inflation report. it's a tremendous document and that's the economic rationale for whatever rate decision they made. underpins the forecast going forward. maybe the bank are lucky that may is an inflation report month and that will provide the economic evidence for the decision that they make. nicholas staying with us. up next, don't count out the fed. --nings from the world's world's most influential bond traders fall on deaf ears as u.s. rate hike expectations remain muted. should investors listen? ♪ >> i'm not so sure that june is out. , weeard from stan fisher heard from williams in san francisco and they all seem to get it. they also to know that at some point they should be raising interest rates in order to preserve a semblance of profitability for saver

francine: bank of england governor mark carney invoked the r word as well yesterday.ernor carney: notable increase in inflation. it is the judgment not based on -- it is a judgment not based on a whim. it is a judgment based on rigorous analysis and careful consideration. it is the judgment of all members of the npc. of course there's a range of possible scenarios around those directions. which could possibly include a technical recession. could possibly include that. francine: the response from those in the brexit camp was to take the forecast with a bucket full of salt. let's get more with kamal sharma. thank you so much for sticking around. for the moment, all of this uncertainty. let's not even talk about brexit. the uncertainty of the referendum means that pound took all the brunt of this volatility. kamal: we're looking through the lens for sterling in terms of the impact on the current account deficit. the travails of the deficit are very well known. it relies heavily on investment to fund that deficit. consequently, any uncertainty has implications for the cur

governor mark carney at pairs before u.k.rs in his last public engagement before the pre-brexit vote begins. this morning we are bringing you two big names from opposing sides of the debate. and on the other side, founder and chairman of finsbury, treasurer of written -- britain stronger in europe. gos is our wonderful bricks says theand it 45%,bility of a leave is but the probabilities are pretty much stacked in the remain category. what has been the reason for the resurgent in the support for the remain cap in the last week do you think? liam: my caveat would be, i believe any of the polls either way because the pollsters are not sure how to pull properly. that is the caveat. i think that the remain campaign had some success in recent days in putting a series scare stories in front of voters. the government has decided to use the mechanics of government to do this. i think this has profound political implications for stability post referendum and i think the government report yesterday, the treasury report -- mark: why does

mark: the bank of england cuts its growth forecast and governor mark carney warns about to leave the european union would hurt the economy possibly causing a recession. trump meetsld face-to-face with house speaker paul ryan, can they resolve their differences and unite the republican party? what does this mean for the november election? first let's go to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. off the we are coming highs of the session dramatically for the three major averages. -- theative is negative nasdaq is negative and the dow is about the same. what i see is in the white, we have seen oil go a leg lawyer and stocks are going along with it -- a leg lower and stocks are going along with it. we had seen oil rising on concerns over supply constraints in nigeria as well as in the u.s. since then, it has fallen off and it looks like that is what is causing stocks to go lower. imap, energy the is in one of the top spots paring its gains. health care and technology are languishing today but yesterday we had the big pullback in retail stocks. it's a mixed trade and retail. k

richard: mark carney said have aay that we could technical recession if the u.k. were to leave.atilityterling against u.s. dollar -- we are at seven-year highs. that just encapsulates the vote. it jumped sharply as soon as the two-month tenor took in the vote. investors are concerned about the implications of exit -- brexit. they are uncertain of what's going to happen and therefore, volatility is high. betty: i want to talk about the economic numbers we've had. you have noted that we've seen a sharp uptick in negative surprises on economic numbers despite what we saw today with retail sales and the jobs numbers. richard: looking at the economic surprise index we have on the terminal, today, we've seen we are headed in a direction that the fed is more comfortable with. what we've seen since the beginning of april, we've had and thesing estimates surprise has always been on the negative side. that is one of the things that has kept the fed from perhaps being as aggressive as they would have liked to have been after the rate hike in december. caroline: have a wonderful weekend. th

we know that mark carney warned that a vote to leave the eu would tip the economy.lix: in an economy market -- in market, it was truly a bloodbath. you name it, copper, lead, all of them were down. i didn't really see a catalyst for this, guys, i just saw this as a continued slam-down. more of those spectators getting run out across the board. joe: the same with iron ore as a. it was pretty ugly. alix: the same with rebar -- iron ore as well. it was pretty ugly. alix: the same with rebar. earlier in the year, right before the february selloff, we had apple's market cap go below google. alix: that was pretty much for the first time in that it resolved itself. what we are seeing something very similar right now. apple's market cap is something below google. you can really see what has happened there. there you go. apple's market cap is that white line and google is the blue line. it has been another week illustrating how much pain apple continues to be in an sort of can't get out of its funk. joe: it keeps leading lower. i want to talk a little bit about the economic

you had the bank of england governor mark carney saying that the upcoming vote is creating substantial uncertainty. the tale of two commodities today. one is wti and brent. this is their spread. at one point it was in positive territory, meaning it was more expensive than brent. a lot of this weakness and thength is pairing vindication of these guys. the other one is gold. a five-day slide. the worst that we have seen since november. falling below the 50 day moving average, close to that 100 day. if you are hiking, why own gold at the end of the day? >> definitely. let's take a deep dive into the bloomberg. you can find all of the following charts with the function at the bottom of the screen. >> how much are we using credit cards? actually less. i have a great chart for you that looks at credit card balances as a percentage of credit. like how much you are spending on your credit card. the first quarter fell to 23.2%, the lowest level since 2003. thank you to matt butler for pointing this out to me. total available credit was 2.5 trillion dollars, the highest in eight years. deleverag

mark carney, christine lagarde, and george osborne, and boris johnson, of course, for the leave side.ought brexit, was back on the horizon -- we have contingency measures. the imf demanding contingency measures. this is just a never-ending story, isn't it? anna: the never-ending greek saga. greeks are fighting to unlock the next tranche of aid money. ministers will be gathering in brussels today, putting this back on the radar. at issue is contingency measures the imf demanded greeks implement worth 3.5 billion euros, about 3% of the greek gdp, a politically thorny issue for a prime minister who came into power by promising he would oppose extra austerity. he only has a three-c parliamentary -- three-seat ary majority.re manus: anna, denmark warned -- what is that about? many asnmark is seen by a test case for the negative interest rate phenomenon that has swept much of the developed world. they had it for four years, and at the imf is warning about asset bubbles in the housing market. another reminder of the, of how much of a frontier of the latest thinking by central banks on policy

brexit referendum is less than a month away and officials including the bank of england governor mark carney risks. jeffrey's chief european economist takes a look at what either outcome could mean for the european economy. outust had some u.s. data -- what do you put down for brexit and what you put down at softening globally? mark: the u.k. was growing at 3.5% annualized, that has slowed. a lot of that lost momentum was due to external factors. world trade is falling for the first time since 2009. moreover, sterling did rise by approaching 20%. we have ongoing fiscal consolidation, policies being tightened by the bank of england. backnk brexit has come come is beginning to influence decisions. when i look at the gdp number and saw household spending solid, but a decline in business investment, what is the effect of that going to be? the interesting thing here, you think of the bank of england's reaction to the main inflation report, they still had tighten, raising rates sooner rather than later. is going to get pushed back into next year. with brexit, they could be cutting rates. the first

mark carney -- was asked about as he appeared before the u.k. treasury committee.pirit of goodwill, i'm going to ask you dismiss something. that is we know that goldman [indiscernible] can i give you the opportunity to refute any suggestions that goldman sachs put any pressure on you? i will take the opportunity -- yes, i refuted categorically and am stunned. >> thank you. atlantic, across the the president says he doesn't see the eu referendum influence he said even if the u.k. decides to leave, the next day nothing happens and the country will enter into negotiations bounds to go very slowly. s&p global ratings once that a brexit when not just weaken the pound, it would ever dies its status as a reserve currency used in trade. sterling legs in central bank holdings. central bank says it may be thrown the pound and threaten the nation's top aaa credit rating. g7 leaders warned a vote by britain to leave the european union would pose a serious threat to global growth. the remarks were contained in a final communique following their summit in japan. those with this

in fact, the governor of the bank of england, mark carney was in front of the bank to warn of the risksesf the economy. it appears that the pensionneers are moving into the remain cam tain, and the telegraph is suggesting that the report for leaving is collapsing. the bookmakers if you are believing the odds as indicator, 80% chance that the uk will remain. all important stuff, and meantime worth the mention, the brussels, the finance ministers meeting finally to approve the cash for the greeks, $12 billion to get through the bills, and of course, as you note by now, the debt relief, and the extension of the maturitys and the payment of the holidays has been forced on the imf with germany suggesting that as a of couple of weeks ago, they will kor it. >> thank you, simon. lots of consolidation happening in the tech sector. the top banker at jpmorgan is here, and he is going to tell us how to capitalize on that. and looking at the markets, off of the highs of the session, but not much. and all of the majors are rallying, and nasdaq is up 1.65%. back in a moment. >>> hi, everybody. i'm sue h

tomorrow, bank of england governor mark carney faces mps for the last time before the eu referendum.s going to be quite important. we've got a thursday lead in to this g7. we've got the leader summit in japan, then friday is gdp data out of the united states. ,hen we get into janet yellen which pretty much everybody is waiting to see. the big story to my mind this morning is the data out of europe are coming through strong , really quite strong. >> pmi was quite encouraging today. the one thing that is probably not as converging, the manufacturing numbers in france. the composite numbers look ok. i think mr. draghi will look at this, and given the fact that pmi's have a forward-looking bias, the eu economy is heading in the right direction. these numbers are encouraging. matt: was going to ask what you think draghi will make of this. the ecb i believe is going to put out new projections for growth. it looks like what he's done so far is working as he would hope, rich. >> i think we've got some traction. these numbers are probably a little too close to 50. the french numbers, the manu

mark carney came out with comments saying be careful because brexit has an impact.ro-brexitersd by . this is a quote saying look, if we are going to answer the other policy,nts of monetary we have a duty to explain that tothe british people and parliament. he is getting flack because he seems to be weighing in politically. click that would be his argument. that is what you saw a reiterated yesterday. they are saying you should reside. >> i am amazed at how little airtime the pro-brexit people get. what is going on? are they not getting their message out? them? media blocking what is the back story on the lack of the messaging by the pro-brexit people? >> you have two separate arguments. are going to keep pounding on what it means to your pocketbook, your chance for employment. on the other side, you're looking at political leadership. francine: the rules mean they need to get 50% of their time. if we did leave the eu, it cuts red tape and makes the u.k. more .ompetitive >> those critical of the eu, brussels has tied them up in rules and regulations. particularly tho

manus: and tomorrow, mark carney will once again, face members of the treasury committee.will be his final public engagement before the pre-eu referendum. this comes after a fiery exchange with a pro-brexit lawmaker. he also accused carney of compromising the independence of the bank of england by making speculative pro-eu statements. let's bring david stubbs back into the conversation. david, in terms of everything that is going on with the brexit debate, one thing that comes to mind, we see sterling, we will hear from cameron today, talking about the u.k.'s self-induced recession. a heavy warning in the final days. ed, and i think we will see more of this. i don't think we will see the immediate impact after the vote to leave. we know with a great deal of certainty the market will push down heavily. the uncertainty about what the relationship will be about trading partners will cause a drop in investment. that will have a detrimental impact on the economy. now, whether this will cause a recession or not, it goes down to whatever numbers you plug into your model. the actu

>> i don't have the latest polls but we've been listening to mark carney's press conference followingrates on hold as you mentioned. he has uttered the "r" word. he said the consequences of a brexit, quote, could possibly include a technical recession. he also said that sterling's weakness over the last year, a figure he put at 9%, had been half down to brexit fears. he said that there could be, quote, perhaps a sharp fall further off sterling in the event of brexit. he warns of materially low growth and notably higher inflation if we saw a brexit. he did also say that monetary policy alone might not be enough. of course, fiscal policy is not in his remit but seems to suggest that you might see a broad response from the government and bank of england in the event of a brexit. he has meant to be impartial. a tweet from prime minister david cameron who said the bank of england is right to warn leaving the eu could cause lower growth and unemployment to rise. the question on whether the bank of england, which is meant to be impartial, is overstepping their mark. mark carney maintains tha

alles: mark carney is warning a vote in favor of the grexit could lead the economy to -- >> a vote tocould have economic effects on the exchange rate and demand and the economy potential, the effects that could affect monetary policy. alles: the bank of england also lowered its growth forecast for the u.k., unchanged at a record low, 0.5%. denmark plans to buy fighter planes. the government still needs approval of the parliament. it would replace denmark's aging fleet. they also competed for the deal. first-quarter profit earnings of the french bank retail unit plunged 32%. -- 232%. i plunged to 32%. -- bmw plans to injured as electric self driving car five years from now. the bmw will supplant the seven series as the flagship car. bmw is responding to challenges from tesla motors and mercedes-benz. it is expected to lose the top spot this year for the first time since 2005. scarlet: time now for the bloomberg quick take. his taiwan a country, sort of. it has an elected -- elected government and yet the united nations does not recognize a because taiwan was the home base of the chines

stephanie: mark carney was addressing full on what he called the elephant in the room, the impact of potential brexit vote. that one quite clear almost any forecast that you tend to make reasonable estimates, never your plug-ins are, you have material slower materiallyested and higher inflation particularly from the exchange rate. we tended to assume that would mean lower for longer rates in the u.k. but actually he was quite clear and said it would not be automatic. that would pose a challenging trade-off. do they focus on inflation or growth? what they highlighted that goes back to some of these radium term forces is the potential supply side effect because it is not just a hit to demand. if you have under most scenarios openness to your main trading partners you are probably going to affect productivity and the potential growth rate and that could mean higher inflation or lower growth. they would have to face the choice. i am interested in the median supply demand affect. when it be enough to push the economy into recession? at the moment we say not but that is uncertain. francine

her comments echoed those by mark carney on thursday.gen's market share in europe fell for the month in a row. chrysler haveiat increased their shares of european sales. alfa romeo is about to go head-to-head with bmw. after three months of delays, the luxury sedan is on sale in europe. the new owner of japan's sharp electronics company ones that job cuts are on the way. the ceo of foxconn sent an e-mail to employees, calling subpar. cellblock -- they have lostthe new owner of n dollars in the last five years. scarlet: time now for our bloomberg quicktake, where we provide context and background on issues of interest. american students oh in the average of $29,000 after leaving school. the debt burden is rippling into other parts of their lives. here is a lookout compares to the rest of the world. is second to none in higher education. thehighest prices on planet. that is why there is more than $1.3 trillion in student debt in the u.s.. thantsscarlet: think it is more every other country combined. americans cannot afford it. there is a l

mark: how is carney going to keep out of the brexit the next week? going to be tricky. >> i think it will be very challenging for him. the line they will take is there is a lot of uncertainty now with the brexit debate. let's see where we stand afterwards. i think the way david is pointing it shows the bank of england has a big challenge. mark: mohamed el-erian talking about the importance of the yen and bank of japan not acting. we have had little japanese action because it was the golden week holiday. this is the yen going back to the end of last week. >> i think it is interesting because you see a sharp drop in the value of the dollar versus the yen. on the a marginal move third of may, on tuesday. we ground a little bit higher. i think we have traded sideways. next week could be interesting. mark: "the close" is next. stay with us. ♪ Âi mark: back from london and new york, you are watching the european close with mark barton and vonnie quinn in new york. let's take you through all the action. the jobs report came out and stocks were already lower

i'd just like to read you what mark carney, the governor of the bank of england, has said about this publicly. he says, to ensure its effectiveness this mechanism should be a completely independent check on the process, on the legislative process, and separate from the institutions involved in that process. that is a central flaw to this otherwise quite attractive proposal, isn't it, prime minister? >> well, i remember our conversations about it and i can see merit in having a separate body trying to do this, but in my experience if you want a bureaucracy to deregulate, you've got to make the bureaucracy deregulate, rather than create someone else to do its job for it. our domestic experience is when you set departments targets, you can only introduce one regulation if you scrap another one. now it's two more. that actually changes the culture in white hall and changes the amount of regulation. and that's i think what we need to do with the european commission and that's the aim with this legally binding document which is -- >> did you press for independence? >> i discussed it with t