we were talking about mark carney, weren't we?m was that there are a lot of good parts of the uk economy, some of the things we track as i was mentioning earlier is the consumer and one of the positives is that more consumer debt has come out and that looks a bit, at face value maybe scary, but that's the payment on the debt is a smaller percentage of income from consumers. it is a type of inflation as well. it is not the right type, is it? or is it the right type? what imean by is it? or is it the right type? what i mean by that, it isjust energy prices going up? it is that kind of thing. it is not everything going up because of demand ? thing. it is not everything going up because of demand? that's a huge pa rt because of demand? that's a huge part of the inflation dynamic at the moment. you would, ideally like prices to go up because people are willing to pay more. businesses are willing to pay more. businesses are willing to pay more. businesses are willing to pay more. is it actually more, it costs more because the pound is s

there is a little bit of retracement since we heard from mark carney. it all has to do with the safety bank it of the central banks. it a shock forg the banks and some of the homebuilders. we are seeing losses like we have not seen since the financial crisis. >> they were trying to deleverage a lot of the clients. the big problem is most investors were completely wrong owing into this they were guessing that the remain camp would win. they have had to unravel those. stock orders are setting off. everything was limit down this morning. >> one manus steering the ship and it is mark carney. he is used to crisis. he ran it the central bank of canada. he was responsible for canada avoiding many of the disruptions other people had. they will not hesitate to take action. you can see how it was -- i know the banks are not systemic. i know there is a safety blanket from central banks. this is the movement. you can see the panic with traders. this is chaos. does it feel as bad as 2008? >> it's difficult to understand why a lot of smart money was putting on remain

mark carney said it was like a game of jenga, first you take pieces out, but a wrong move could have outsized effects. let's talk more about what's taking place in britain. sir charles bean joins us. charles, good morning. >> good morning. let's start with some of the comments from mark carney that brexit is no longer the biggest risk facing britain's financial system. do you agree with this? >> certainly if you go back to the referendum last summer, and the vote, there was genuine concern that if it went in favor of exit that that might lead to turmoil in financial markets. the bank had that at the top of its list of financial stability worries. for that reason took preemptive action, providing lots of access to financial institutions, funds available and also took monetary policy measures. as it turned out, the financial markets and the economy more generally have taken the vote to leave so far in stride. i think it's plausible to say that the main financial stability worries at the moment at least are not on the brexit question. some of them are external, like the risk of financia

the next story is mark carney in the firing line. bank of england governor says parliament treasury -- he admitted policymakers were too pessimistic about the >> it induced slowdown. the central bank board has said it's worried about its reputation and lawmakers announced a review of the effectiveness of policy loosening since the financial crisis. we focus on volkswagen, the carmaker dealing with the u.s. over in missions cheating last night. the settlement would include 4.3 billion dollars in fines, a guilty plea to some criminal charges and the appointment of an independent my actor. executives will review the plan which needs court approval and could force volkswagen to increase its provision for the scandal. we will watch shares at the open of course. if you're wondering where manus cranny is, he is here. he will present the next program, which means he will join me briefly to take us through some interesting market trends in the chart. manus: i will be back just after 7:30 today. have a look at this, these are presidential yiel

it is really hitting the pound no matter what mark carney says s.t-brexit strategy -- the economy has held up but he says over risk analysis was correct. we had all of the things to keep the economy going. >> a number of major institutions would have been caught on the wrong side with -- and the reason they weren't -- this is important. the reason they were not is because the bank correctly risk that is a risk to the financial sector. it helped take that risk off the table. >> the pound fell even though industrial output improved in november. this is a really cool chart. warning signs. hsbc predicts that the pound could slide -- that is the dotted turquoise line. if we get into that hard brexit situation, they say this a be the worst level since 1985. they say the pound is becoming a ex-ometer." >> next, singapore jails a bigger. we will -- jails a banker. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> time for a look at what is coming up here on bloomberg television. what are you watching today? trump's news conference, his first press conference since july. he talked

obviously this has really enhanced uncertainty, and it will have a big impact on the market and mark carneyaid they are going to make plans. mark: the chancellor of the exchequer outlined the budget for great britain devised down growth and warned of economic risk of leaving the european union. >> it had a whiff of a preelection budget because it is a prereferendum budget. mark: the central bank voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged and highlighted uncertainty around the so-called brexit. >> this is the first time that the bank as a whole has expressed an opinion about how it will affect the economy. >> markets are pricing in that we are staying in, currency markets certainly. there could be extreme volatility if we vote to come out. >> i believe there will be a big turnout and people understand that it is a decision with seismic consequences particularly economic consequences and i can't believe that people will shuffle this one off. although i do think there's a large number of british people who are still struggling to come to terms with what it is all about and find the claims and c

manus: the market disagrees with mark carney.e warned that brexit is a danger to the eu transition and agreed the consequences would be great. this,estion of the day is is theresa may a one-woman wrecking ball on the currency? she speaks and it drops like a stone. given everything you know of history, is this building to a hard brexit? the reality is, looking at what is been said by theresa may so far, talking about where the red lines are. suggest remaining in the single market. then you have a waiting toward hard brexit and that's exactly what it is reflecting. if you want to look at the historical context, compare studies in the past 12 months to performance from november 1983 through 1985. that is what happened in. some breaking news coming through on the health care sector in the united states. obama care repeal is a step , donald trump spent a lot of time yesterday talking about how he's going to set up plans about how they repeal obama care and replace it. he will get those moderate republicans to vote everything through.

we are waiting to see what is going to be happening with mark carney who will be giving a talk laternd see mood. phone—based apps have transformed everything from dating to dining, and they're now trying to revolutionise our down time as well by taking advantage of the "experience economy". in 2014 the us alone generated around 22 billion on tickets to live events. while selling these has been dominated by the likes of ticket master and stubhub, a new breed of app are trying to tailor experiences to your needs and location using your smart—phone. one company that's trying to carve out a slice of this market is revl who offer 148,000 events to their users in london. the question remains though can they actually make any money? joining me is brandon stephens, co—founder of event discovery app revl to talk more about the space. give us an idea about how it works? it is like the spottedify of events. we have partnered with 600 organisations and institutions to allow them to broadcast events across the likes of trivia nights at your local pub to worldwide tours and... can't we get that al

what mark carney got right is that sterling would fall.d full ofs companies that make most of their money in dollars. as the pound falls the dollar earnings are worth more in pound terms go up, therefore the share value goes up. mr trump gets his way into this story well. a lot of people think his plans to spend big, super charge growth in the us is good news for the global economy and might bring back inflation. if we have inflation it means everyone's favourite asset they have been buying over the yea rs, they have been buying over the years, government bonds, that pay little, are safe, the low returns get eaten up by quickly by inflation. the right thing to do, sell bonds, buy shares, therefore shares go up. that is what you've seen. shares go up. that is what you've seen. thank you very much. simon jack there for us, our business editor. barack 0bama delivered his final farewell as president last night in his home city of chicago. he listed his achievements after eight years in the white house and he struck a sombre note as he warned o

let's listen in to mark carney here. situation right now where, for understandable reasons, business investment has been dampened by uncertainty -- not because -- i mean there is access to finance, but there is some uncertainty about ultimately what is a relationship with our biggest trading partner and that is weighing on investment. david: right. that sets us apart today. we sue some dollar strength on the back of the weakness in pound sterling. strength some dollar on the back of the weakness in pound sterling. of this caution is pervading across markets right now. you look at crude. very quickly, you had comments out of the saudi oil energy minister. he said he did not see the need for the production cuts to extend beyond june, given that he expects the markets to come into equilibrium, or the supply glut to disappear. and the oil rig counts in the u.s. falling for the first time in 11 months. i will change it up and have a openinghe market is in australia. keep an eye on this. iron ore prices. 84 bucks,eaking -- tha

mark carney faces his critics. bank of england government is set to appear before the lawmakers. we will discuss exit battle and rolling, coming up plus, the price tag accelerates. here the latest on a volkswagen's latest probe. a headwind for airbus? from the hq.s live that and more, right here on bloomberg. ♪ to thewelcome back european market open. i am manus cranny. matt miller is in frankfurt for us today at the goldman sachs strategy conference. it has just gone 12 minutes past the hour. a little bit later this morning. -- lighter this morning. i can tell you this. there is an interesting chart. the market has stocked up on options relative -- this is european trading complex. the stock options -- the market is beginning to build up for a bit of a downside correction or indeed is it just fine production that is flight medic at the moment -- phlegmatic at the moment? down 0.3%. some of the main movers, st. mary's topping the bill -- sain sbury's topping the billboard. a fairly, fairly tough opening this mornin

this article looks at what mark carney had to say. the governor of the bank of england.oney of central bankers, he is described as. he had a very difficult speech to make last night, the night before theresa may's speech. the fact that inflation is going up. the sterling has fallen so much that inevitably, inflation will drop on the back about. it is pushing higher. that puts him in a difficult position because this is the wrong sort of inflation. it is not inflation caused by more money in our pockets. this is inflation caused by the fact that prices are going up but the sterling is weaker. it is the same asa sterling is weaker. it is the same as a tax hike. back in august, carney was indicating he would look at this. that is why interest rates we re at this. that is why interest rates were cut in august. by october, sterling was falling so much, there is only so much inflation that we can look through and now he is signalling that rates could go either way. certainly his comments la st either way. certainly his comments last night suggesting rates could go either way s

mark carney says that he expects consumption to slow in the week ahead. consumptionlow and ends up going faster than income reasont is a high-level why we see some slowing in spending this year in the this is the core forecast. >> the japanese prime minister has urged asian nations to join the transpacific partnership. this goes counter to the trump opposition to the plan. >> achieving this as the foundation will help us go agreements.ter >> japan would like to be the standard bearer for the free trade regime. >> deutsche bank may withhold bonuses from bankers, according to the new york post, who cited people. the paper said that 10% are expected to receive a bonus and the payments may be spread out over the next five years. powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. at can find more stories bloomberg. >> thank you very much. let's get back to where the action happens for the rest of the week with martin gilbert. take it away. >> thank you so much. >> this is the coldest it has ever been. >> you talk about global trade you need a little co

mark carney goods inflation and focus, warning that the central bank has limited tolerance for rising prices. cpi data due at 9:30 gmc. francine: and live from the world economic forum in davos, switzerland the future of finance. john cryan joins our debate about the transformation of the industry, do any moment. and in european banking, we will be speaking to the credit suisse ceo. don't miss that exclusive interview at 9:15 u.k. time. stealssident xi jingping the spotlight, with his first speech ever at the forum. let's get back to the world economic forum in davos, with bloomberg's tom keene and his panel on the future of finance. tom: if you don't make it every 90 days, the world falls apart. we have a panelist to provides us with a terrific historical committedwho has been to acquiring for the united states of america different pieces of our heritage and history and possibly understands the 1930's like no one in the room, and certainly a political moment we are in worldwide. finally, we have a panelist to -- full disclosure -- has written my book of the year, with a great hat tip

mark carney made his strongest warning yet for a smooth transition. his warning echoes douglas flint, who earlier called for the two-year leaving period to be extended. boeing's biggest competitor itself in aommitted run-up to the inauguration. airs has a factory in alabama that employs over 1000 people. >> we have decided four years ago to invest in america not only because it is a big market for us, but this is the biggest place to be regarding aerospace. we create jobs. that, you don't know that we are probably procuring more u.s. equipments they are competitors. -- than our competitors. bloomberg. ♪ as you have been hearing, donald trump making the headlines. pointed words for china and senate confirmation hearings. rex tillerson once a stronger presence in asia, does he not? it seems to be putting it out anyway. >> it is not necessarily happening according to rex tillerson. he says the south china sea flashpoint, and china's moves on what has been reported to be weapons on this reclaimed claims -- rexhina illegaln calls those actions and extremel

you talk about reflation and what mark carney was saying, yesterday.es. the pound's performance has been in line with what many people thought would happen. the peculiarity has been even though the pound has sold off, the economy itself has performed better. the questions of this year and next year is to the extent that the pound falls races headline inflation and squeezes wages, does that mean there is a hangover from the brexit story with weaker growth? is difficult to fund when you are not sure whether or not you are in or out of europe or what the relationship is going to be. pound sterling becomes ever weaker. it might just be the hsbc forecast. francine: jonathan? rollhan: i think you can out further falls in the exchange rate given concerns about the balance of payment. the dropping exchange rate to a certain degree, although it is reflective of concerns about brexit and the impact of that on interest rates -- on the interstate outlook, it has not been an ink and -- uncontrollable dumpling. is that because we are a service sector world? are usin

we know mark carney has been working on modeling some kind of buffer or transitional agreement.ould that be the most helpful thing for banks? douglas: it would be helpful to know if that is in the planning. we think it needs to be. in the sense when you think of the regulatory reforms we have them through, implementation so people can collect the information and present it being required. it's difficult to think about something as significant as changing the relationship with europe, you can hardly say day zero, we're move from the system -- we are moving from that system and a one, you can accommodate everything that has changed within your system, so i think there has to be some period of transition. and again, in terms of the planning, if there is not a believe there will be some comparable of transition, -- some period of transition, you have to plan for the fact that there might be none, and that accelerates decisions. francine: and you have not got any assurances from the bank of england or london in expectation that they have a transitionary phase they are planning for? d

out of theirjobs from ivan rogers, the ambassador to the eu, are there were things against him, mark carney had thought. jim o'neill, a treasury minister advising them on the northern powerhouse, walked out within days. there seems to be a clash between these senior figures, who have been often quite good at theirjobs. finally, the daily telegraph. a hero of mine. claire hollingworth. she happened to have the scoop of, i don't know, the last 300 years. the beginning of world war ii. she was in thejob for beginning of world war ii. she was in the job for about three weeks, i think? something like three days. she said, i'm going to do this, she got the scoop that all of us would only ever dream of within three days. what is remarkable about her, when she was doing this job at the telegraph sent her to poland, at that time, women were still, it was difficult with... to have these big careers. they were told, get married, go home and have children. even more impressive she managed to do all of this at a time not like now, when women weren't brave enough, and she put to bed that i did that women

exchanges on central-bank policy are expected to resume when mark carney appears before the treasury committee today. his announcements before and after the brexit vote were heavily scrutinized by lawmakers. the government says it is now considering a pledge to allow european citizens in the u.k. to remain after the country leaves the e.u. >> this is in my view the issue that should be cleared first, or at least very early in the process, because there are a large number of people both in the united kingdom and in the european union will be naturally concerned about their continued position in their respective countries of residence. therefore, it is important that that issue should be clarified, i would suggest, at a very early stage. harrison,rupert strategist at blackrock, is still with us. he was chief of staff to george osborne, the former british chancellor. we keep on saying because you were former chief of staff because we are trying to work out number 10 and number 11. what do we know about what theresa may thinks? pound falls when she says she wants to curb immigration. she

and the head of the bank of england, mark carney, says brexit no longer poses the single biggest riske tv service in the uk by 2020, that's the pledge by the bbc‘s director general. tony hall says he wants the bbc to "reinvent public broadcasting for a new generation". the plans will see the bbc competing with services such as netflix and amazon prime — as our media editor amol rajan reports. it was the bbc drama sherlock that was the ratings winner over christmas and new year. but millions of us are now watching these shows online. for the bbc, that means using its iplayer service. in a speech to bbc staff in birmingham today, the director—general tony hall said he wanted to double the iplayer‘s reach. it's been the number one video on demand service in the uk, reaching more people than any other. now we need to make it, we need to make the leap from a catch—up service to a must visit destination in its own right. are you my wife or my queen? i'm both! i want to be married to my wife. but there's another reason why the bbc wants, and needs, to adapt. the crown on netflix shows how ne

in his first major speech of the new year — the bank of england governor mark carney has warned familiesspending power as the year goes on — leaving people with less money to pay off debts. the former youth football coach — barry bennell — has pleaded not guilty to eight charges of child abuse. the allegations all involve a boy under the age of 15 in the 1980s when bennell worked at crewe alexandra. police in south yorkshire say they're treating the death of a 16—year—old girl in rotherham as suspicious. her body was found in an alleyway in the dinnington area of the town this morning. nhs doctors in england are warning that some patients face ‘dangerous' delays getting specialist treatment through their gps. the british medical association says referral management centres — create barriers and take decisions away from gps. but supporters of the system say it's a good way to manage scarce resources. our health editor hugh pym has more details. if a gp refers you for a hospital checkup or treatment you might think it would happen automatically but in some areas the decision has to be vett

mark carney was making one of his regular appearances at the treasury committee. colleague, andy haldane — the bank of england's chief economist — about economic forecasting. andy haldane called the failure to predict the financial crisis of 2008 a "michael fish" moment for economists. he also accepted that a similar dynamic might have been in play over the bank's forecasts about brexit. i feel i should begin by asking you, will you agree with the chief economist that the bank of england's be having a michael fish moment, or two? well, one of the advantages of managing group think is one doesn't always agree with everything that is said. by colleagues. think the core point that andy haldane made, or tried to make, related to, no disrespect to mr fish, i should say, but was trying to make... pertains exactly to what we are talking about today. which is the ability to identify the risk to financial stability. and the poor performance of most in the economic profession, including some of the major topic institutions, the bank of england. in identifying the major risk

it's interesting that mark carney as governor of the bank of england raised precisely this issue in hisjust last month. what's labour's prescription — caps or ratios or what? month. what's labour's prescription - caps or ratios or what? there's no magic bullet here. the things that jeremy has been talking about and the labour party has always put forward a re the labour party has always put forward are that we want to see within the framework that we have a national minimum wage that has a much higher level than it does now. it is an be scene thing that —— obscene thing that by 12 noon on january 4 this year, one—and—a—half working days into the year, the top executives in this country had earned more than the average worker earns ina earned more than the average worker earns in a year, more than £28,000. we knows there's inequality. what's labour's prescription, caps or quota? it's not capping you or i or the way in which most people would earn in this country. what it's saying is this: there should be irisho that if you're a company where the boss is earning £500,000, four times as mu

we are now hearing from mark carney talking or being worried about post-brexit growth.e a listen to what he says about investment in the u.k. are in a situation right now where for understandable reasons business investment has been dampened by uncertainty, not because, there is access to finance, but uncertainty about ultimately what our relationship will be with our largest trading partner, and that is weighing on business investment. conundrum much of a is the boe in given that we are seeing growth prospects falling, but inflation continuing to rise? >> the inflation aspect is something the bank will have to consider as the inflation rate approaches the 2% target, so i suspect that they will be in a situation where an interest rate the looks quite probable further you go into the rest of the year. growth outlook i think is less certain. been caringou have is upgrading its forecast for the u.k., the boe indicating got it wrong over brexit, and the imf is indicating the same thing, so the negative growth outlook being pushed further down the road for the u.k. into 2018

alix: mark carney going to feel that he later on in the day.s what you need to know at this hour. straight out of a movie, intelligence agencies tell trump about unsubstantiated reports that the russian government compiled potentially damaging and personal financial information on him. the kremlin and donald trump then i those reports. it's ahead of donald trump's news conference today. former exxon mobil ceo rex tillerson faces a tough confirmation hearing on capitol hill this morning. what will we learn about him and will anything stand in the way of him becoming the next secretary of state? bond king battle. lach wasgund putting down bill gross's earlier call of treasuries that 2.6% would end the bond bull market. that is what you need to know at this hour. jonathan: everest announcing its first deal of the year from u.s. group aviation capital. the deal comes with the $3.8 billion price tag despite concerns that 2017 will be a tough year for abuse aviation. guy johnson caught up with the airbus ceo in france. >> your new president is right.

our central bank governor, mark carney, suggested that a hard brexit scenario could be worse for europe than it is for the uk. that's going to be a problem for the weak banks in europe. >> yeah. this is an open question. there are a lot of opinions. my view is that brexit is not good in either form for uk, not for europe. we will see what's happening. it's completely different. i hope things will go in the right way. you know, in terms of things, it's not good for europe. >> what we've seen in the last 24 hours, two big european banks settling huge fines with the department of justice. the president of the euro group said to me recently, as fast as we raise capital in europe, it goes out the did or to the united states in the forms of fines. do you think that's gone too far now? >> my view is the worst is over as far as the european banking system. those firms have settled their claims. now italy is doing their home work as well. so the worst is over. i don't think capital will be a problem in the european banking system. bo >> bold statement there. thank you. >> thank you, julia. just

. >> mark carney says that this will hurt europe more than the united kingdom.re is talk about special londonwith the city of and he went on to say that he corrected his sources. do you get a sense that the europeans will say they need access to the european union? i never thought they would capitulate. >> as i said, the industry has been a strategic asset and it has been for the european union, helping to drive growth. position off of the coast has new york and london and it is in their interest to make sure there is this relationship. capital that access to and the want to enhance the current level of supervision. it is clear that the europeans have no intention of letting the currenttly in form. this is the battleground. >> it is a consideration. the economic considerations will always be incredibly important. having this clearing, it is don'tult to see how you ban others from doing this. and younk about europe talk about theresa may in these accusations of muddled thinking with preparations for tomorrow's speech. >> we have had a positive and constructive di

this is something mark carney has said many times. he also said he will look through it. saying low employment may not fuel wage increases. this is a link between inflation , if we see tariffs going up, if we see inflation higher, but if wage growth doesn't follow through, people may start feeling forward and spending less. let's talk more about brexit. gupta,ack with sanjeev executive chairman of liberty house. thank you so much for sticking around. we were talking before about tariffs. your model is that you can continue to do trade with the rest of europe and the world. is there a chance that brexit makes this country more competitive? sanjeev: it makes us focus a bit more on industry. decliningtry has been for the last few decades. now we are at a turning point. brexit has heightened the need for britain to focus on its core sectors such as steel. francine: does europe have too much steel? sanjeev: there is overcapacity of steel globally, but it is important to differentiate the sectors. one is primary steelmaking in blast furnaces, which is based on importing iron bo

we are going to get lots of warnings from mark carney about inflation. think 2017 isn't the year it moves in england. guy: ok, we will discuss that later. minutes away from the equity market open. up next, a close look at the movers on the first trading day of the year. eye on ryanair. the market open, nine minutes away. ♪ ♪ start of trading in 2017 in germany, six minutes away. 11,000, equity markets getting a solid bid on the back end of last year. to they continue in 2017? focusock in germany in could be bmw, also in that list. atth korea taking a look emissions and as a result, we are going to see halting of sales of some cars, bmw, porsche etc., watch the german car sector this morning. also, keep an eye on ryanair. trying to nail this one down, but there are talks of a downgrade out there. keep and i am that. we may see ryanair come under pressure via regulatory story. it looks like london will underperform today. we have the dax up around half of 1%. london only up 1/10 of a percent. here that you go to on your bloomberg terminal. equities don't p

what is interesting to note is that the governor of the bank of england, mark carney, made a speech atliant on consumers vying and purchasing. with the inflation rate, if it continues, it will make the economy a lots more vulnerable. we will have more business later. to reason sturgeon and the first minister of wales. the reaction after the speech has been somewhat less than welcoming, i think it is fair to say. we'll get a reaction from cardiff and belfast. first, james shaw in glasgow. sale as about the reaction from nicola sturgeon which was less than constructive? it is fair to say that this was not the brexit speech that nicola sturgeon, scottish first minister, wanted to hear. she is a fan of the european union. she is in favour of the single market. she didn't wanta favour of the single market. she didn't want a hear theresa may saying, as she did today, they could definitively that the united kingdom will be out of the single market. you felt that scotland's voice was being ignored, she said. theresa may wants to go off a hard brexit cliff edge. the direction she set is not bei

we heard mark carney say that the eu could suffer more than the u.k., if there were a disorderly brexit i don't believe it all that there is a risk -- what is sure is that the transition must be well organized. or two toed a year reorganize themselves, i think we should allow them the necessary time. the most delicate thing is probably the manufacturing sector, because there we have the rules of the wto, the customs union, relationships with many third countries, and to do itake more time in an organized way. but the financial services -- i think it can be done in a couple years. are a special adviser on the brexit issues to the government in france. it's an election year so you might have a different boston report to in the coming months. what is your priority right now? we heard mario draghi say that the u.k. is clearing business -- would you agree with that? >> i think the clearing business needs to come back in the european union for reasons of sovereignty, but most importantly for financial stability. 2011 --normous risks in we saw that it was highly the bulk of clearing, 10% is on

mark carney defends the bank of england policy moves, saying it helped financial instability.ryone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." i am francine lacqua in london.

the financial services, mark carney worded it well.lity from brexit has subsided for the time, but he said when it comes to european partners, it is still there, the risk. they are starting to acknowledge -- the chief negotiator for the eu side in discussions, he has pointed out financial stability is key for him in negotiations. he wants to avoid this, too. anna: thank you for joining us jordan rogers. expert strategist. that is it for bloomberg: daybreak europe. we have markets, european open coming up next. we will not be moving far at the start of european equity trading. there could be 1/10 of the percent to the upside, a little stronger than that the futures suggest. but not a great deal this morning. we have u.s. futures looking broadly flat, as well. a lot of politics to talk about this morning. they will be doing that throughout the day. this is bloomberg. ♪ i've spent my life planting a size-six, non-slip shoe into that door. on this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. but these days it's phones before fo

it has been voiced by the governor of the bank of england, mark carney, saying we need to be vigilantgo to some formal insolvency, and as you said, the figures, 91,000 in the last year, up by 13% from the previous year, up by 13% from the previous year, and within that there is a big figure. 50,000 people opting for something called individual volu nta ry something called individual voluntary arrangements, a very flexible form of insolvency where you come to deal with your creditors and end up paying off less but you have to do it in a very structured way and that is up 23%. a lot of people going for that. simon, thank you very much. we will speak more about that later. we have to leave it there because we have breaking news. yes, we will go straight to the crown court were the sentencing has just the crown court were the sentencing hasjust happening, the crown court were the sentencing has just happening, the four people killed after a 32 tonne tipper truck careered down a hill. john kay has the sentence which has just been delivered... yes, this was a tipper truck crash two years ag

it has been voiced by the governor of the bank of england, mark carney, saying we need to be vigilanto some formal insolvency, and as you said, the figures, 91,000 in the last year, up by 13% from the previous year, and within that there is a big figure — 50,000 people opting for something called individual voluntary arrangements, a very flexible form of insolvency where you come to a deal with your creditors and end up paying off less but you have to do it in a very structured way, and that is up 23%. a lot of people going for that. that was simon gumpert speaking about the increase in insolvencies. —— gompertz. in a moment a summary of the business news this hour, but first the headlines on bbc news: theresa may is in washington to meet president trump — they will have talks about trade, foreign affairs and strengthening the ties between the uk and the us. two men have been sentenced to a total of 12 years for manslaughter, after a runaway tipper—truck killed four people in bath. jo stevens is the second member ofjeremy corbyn‘s cabinet to resign in protest at his decision to force

does it put pressure on the bank of england, mark carney gave a speech last night.us on keeping the economy moving, consumers are under pressure, they don‘t want to put them under more pressure by raising interest rates and having a lower currency is helpful and if interest rates were to rise, that would probably strengthen sterling and lose some of the gains that exporters have achieved over the last few months. 0k, exporters have achieved over the last few months. ok, let's finish on a bit of company news, rolls—royce, the uk courts approved a settlement that they were facing over bribery, us and uk bribery cases, it was over £260 million. yes, so this was a very big fine. so the sfo have imposed a large cash sum... that's the serious fraud office. the serious fraud office and that‘s going to be painfulfor rolls—royce, but it is a long—standing case. five yea rs but it is a long—standing case. five years it has been running and i think the market has looked at it and it is good news because now rolls—royce can look forward and put this episode behind them. charles

how is mark carney going to deal with that? >> well, i think you will go back to the situation the u.k. had in 2008-2009, when sterling had fallen the wrong way, farther than the 1930's when it came off the gold standard. inflation picked up quite a long 4.5%.ose to there was no increase in interest rates, and what happens is the rise of inflation squeezed real wages, squeezed spending power, and the economy slowed down quite dramatically. the bank of england's expecting something similar, not quite so aggressive, over the next year to. as things stand, hsbc has a higher peak inflation forecast then either the bank or the consensus by the end of the year, which is pretty chunky relative to the target. but at the same time we are not expecting to see any reaction from the bank of england. the reason is the rise in inflation is largely a consequence of all in sterling, leading to a squeeze in real wages, which causes the slow. it's that slowing that matters from the point of view of what you do with monetary policy. for the time

there seems to be a narrative gaining momentum, mark carney referring to it, that europe could be ther loser out of brexit. it is controversial. the marketompare size of the european union, 500 million consumers, with the amount of the population of the u.k., the numbers speak for themselves. it does not really matter to look at it that way. we should try to de-dramatize the situation. rishaad: people are making politics out of this. angela merkel for instance, we have to play hardball because we can't have britain picking things À la carte. that's why de-traumatizing is the right thing. when i take the example of the automatic excess to the eu single market, saying it was depending on the goodwill of the 27 other countries is neglecting the fact that this is not a reality. if you choose to go your own way , leave the eu, have your own roles, you cannot have automatic access. so let's be factual about that, and if you don't have the immediate and automatic access, it does not mean you can't do business with the european union. sense, britaint does a lot of business, a huge trade defic

mark carney will speak later on today. this will be around 6:30 p.m.about brings it at it no longer represents the main threat to the economy. do you disagree with that? appreciateing would much further, that would be a significant issue for the u.k. economy because of the fact of the potential snowballing on capital flows. that, had i sat here a few months ago, i think i would've been more concerned about the global cycle. the threats we see today are more emerging markets and developed markets. there are issues in europe. politics i would put on the top of that agenda more than anything else. guy: this is u.k. inflation swaps. we are at 36 now. that number has been going higher. when is that a problem for the economy? >> i would suggest it's already a problem. he can argue this is only an effect that's going because of sterling. at the end of the day, if we see an environment where inflation starts to become stickier, he will have to hike interest rates. the process in doing so and given the fact that the u.k. economy and the u.k. mortgage market is

ofwill be hearing later on mark carney, being grilled by mp's.ons and how they will handle brexit. francine lacqua and tom keene, in london for the week. navigate the weakness that is pound. tom: what is your next big moment for the brexit debate? help our global audience. francine: in the next two to three weeks, one is we are expecting a theresa may speech, and the second one is of course the supreme court decision on whether article 50 -- tom: february, right? francine: it is actually in january. kevin cirilli is in washington, our washington correspondent. he joins us now. before we get to the president-elect and the meetings taken quietly on capitol hill, the 44th president of the united states will speak tonight to the nation from his chicago. what will be the surprise in his speech as president o obama will speak about a better america? kevin: obviously we are living in a very inc. is is than political time, but this is a president who ran eight years ago on hope and change and as someone who will unite the country. he leaves office at a t

mark: mark carney, of course he inflation report.: carney indicated, it is a mathematical conclusion. they have to lift their forecast a bit. they will still see slowing growth this year. they still see all the same problems with a consumption-led expansion that as soon as you get high inflation, you have real income that comes under threat. we expect higher forecasts. then walking a fine line between saying things are better than we expected but don't expect us to do anything different. mark: best case scenario. you said to me in the break, you have a transitional e.a. arrangement while the agreement is being negotiated. >> i think that is right to make sure that talks can happen as quickly as possible once the terms over the divorce are set. the u.k. agrees into too the e.a. for a couple of years while the terms of the free trade agreement are negotiated and that would allow them to be ratified as quick aas possible. we want that to be as comprehensive as possible. there is no agreement that will give us as much market access as we

but like mark carney said last week, the real headline downside that brexit could cause is going awayught. even when oil prices haven't been moving higher as well. with those two things we would expect inflation higher prices to be higher than where they are. with inflation the government has a target of around 296, 2-2.3% government has a target of around 2%, 2-2.3% and government has a target of around 2%, 2—2.3% and we're not in that range yet and we are talking inflation being at a worrying point. for a long time we've wanted to get inflation to 2% and all of a sudden when we get there, it's too high. we have to choose if we want at 2% or not. thank you, james. let's take a look at some of today's other business stories... nearly half of working fathers would like a less stressfuljob, so they can spend more time caring for their children. that's according to a report form the charity working families which also said employers are not doing enough to help dads take a more active role in childcare. facebook is introducing new tools in germany to help combat the spread of fabricated

then we have the governor of the bank of england, mark carney, publicly very, very gloomy about whatis, amidst all this pressure and outrage, just think, is the head of the nhs was to walk, how much more pressure mrs may would be under. so perhaps the fact there is such a huge row at the moment means, maybe, mr stevens is untouchable. thank you. this is an e—mailfrom a viewer, i disagree with increasing taxes to fund the nhs, however i would like to see at setting up a lottery to support it. i'm pretty sure british people would support this kind of lottery if they were sure all the cash would go to the organisation. another view says, if i had to wait 62 days the cancer i wouldn't bother, by then it would probably be too late. another viewer, you can't ta ke too late. another viewer, you can't take £42 billion out of the nhs and expected to manage. closing a&es puts pressure on everywhere else. if you have pertinent experience of the nhs then let me know. still to come. the makers of nutella fightback after claims that palm oil, one of its ingredients, could cause cancer. we'll speak

we have to see what happens with the pound and with brexit and what mark carney decides to do in thethan: something you pointed out is the composition of the ftse, with the mining companies doing terrifically well off the back of commodities. you pointed out how the defensive the ftse can be. if you break it down -- it's about a quarter of the index. what do analysts say about that? >> exactly. that's the interest in part of the index. it has a factor between cyclical the defensive. that's about a quarter of an index defensive, and that tends to underperform the rest of europe. when yields rise and the economy is looking better, when everyone wants to rush into cyclicals. that will be interesting to see what happens this year. jonathan: smart as always. we appreciate your time. coming up, trump's next test. senate confirmation hearings kicking off, beginning with attorney general, senator jeff sessions. what potential changes could he make, and will democrats vote against him? sky bridge cofounder and key member of the transition team joins us. that is next. from new york, this is bl

this comes after mark carney yesterday warned the consumers -- that consumers are facing had friends -- headwinds. the boe will publish new forecast next month, currently expects inflation to breach the 2% target within months. it is closing in on that. the core rate of inflation picked up to 1.6% in december. that also is the fastest rate since august 2014. inflation based on a separate measure, the retail prices index reached the strongest level since july 2014. amazing figures here, the cost of imports rising 16.9% year on year in december, the most since july 2011. annual growth and factories to 15.8%, alsoed a five-year high. look at sterling, a spike up, it was already up today after falling to the lowest level since 1985. the pound is up against the dollar, what a strong set of inflation figures as we await theresa may brexit speech later. francine: that is a big one to walk. we have the president of china talking shortly in dallas. let's get to john mickelthwait who is standing by with the finance minister of brazil. john: thank you, francine. let's talk about the brazilian e

last night mark carney give a speech and he struck a cautious tone in terms of economic prospects. consumer and household spending given the fact that their purchasing power would be reduced because of the decline in the pound. it is too soon to start thinking of bank of england rate rises, but that could come in to play. it's politics making the running right now. thethan: the cable rate and move flattened by what is happening on the other side of the trade. thehe dollar and -- it's dollar. it was long dollar and strong, strong, strong. what do you make of the present elects comment over the weekend that the dollar was too strong and can he do anything about it? richard: he has a two way risk in that trade. it seemed to be a slamdunk trade and i think there has been a bit of the re-think only because of the president's comments but also because we are hearing from other voices saying that the strong dollar is something that could be detrimental to u.s. growth. we have had the fed president talking about it today. i think it is something where we are getting a little bit of a reali

mark carney has been talking about the dangers to the eurozone and financial instability around brexit a financial risk. what are we watching for? and prae saying the ecb backtracked after last year. the targets for the eurozone lower. is a split between guidance and requirements. from a capital position, we are not worried. it should affect liquidity. near't think we are worrying about financial stability. it's how this hands out over two or three years and who is impacted most and who stands to lose and who stands to gain. the: the backdrop for banking sector has improved on several levels. me toward this price grab of share performance for various banks over the last three months. >> it's interesting if you look at the last three-month scum of banks we were most concerned , ratess far as capital have ticked up and trading potentially stronger. there is quite a lot in the price that banks need to deliver through results and solid revenues. they've got to talk about margins and margin stability. and thefrench, mortgage mystic retail has been crippling them for years. it's definitely a

carney time soon. >> and it's shaping up to be another fantastic day around the bay area and a wonderful weekend ahead. we will check in with mark to see what we should expect in the next few days. . >>> for the singed time in a week eye car has veered off niles canyon road and into the creek. this time the driver was able to swim to safety. >> we are live where the car ended up and there are no plans to remove that car today. >> reporter: yeah. we have been monitoring the progress on this car and the water level since 7:30 this morning. there it is in the middle of the creek. the water moving to fast to allow crews to try to retrievet. we have watched as the water has washed up over the hood on the passenger side window of that car. the driver of that car was by here earlier this morning. denot want to talk on camera but he did say he was very happy to have made it out alive. the driver of that car said that he was driving along niles canyon road just before five this morning and that he dozed off while zip agriculture long. >> just about 40 miles an hour when he -- actually fell asleep entering the curve. he woke up, halfway t