this is one of mark carney's comments. mark carney: brexit will play an in port and roll factors will include the outlook for the economy and inflation. in judging the appropriateness of the monetary stance, the committee will monitor closely incoming evidence regarding a range of factors. -- brexit will play an important role. nejra: this is where the discussion of wage growth came, mark. what mark carney was arguing was that a lot of the inflation above forecast we've seen -- we -- above the rate already was due to a weaker sterling. sterling might rise as a result of that. from does inflation come that they are seeing beyond the three years of their forecast? it could come down to wage growth. it wasn't necessarily clear in the news conference exactly how that would happen. gap talked about the output and they talked about those domestic price pressures. in the near term, the emphasized that it could be difficult for households in terms of wage growth and the impact on real incomes. they see wages turning positive in th

we had a great story yesterday with mario draghi and mark carney. to be in a little bit of a difficult spot. piers: yeah, i think your colleague probably got the barometer right. obviously, no change today. i suspect he will be quite careful in light of the fact that we are in the process of a general election in terms of being balanced in terms of his view politically. sometimes, there have been some quasi-messages that have come out of his statement that go beyond his remixes as -- remi sses as bank governor. it makes it easier for him to stay in the dovish camp and i think we all recognize that there is a shorter term inflation in effect that is sterling-related. we want to look more specifically at how that is sustained and that has put pressure on the consumer. we have seen the consumer related data. disposable incomes have clearly dropped. the real observation for us is do we start to see that inflationary pressure feed through into wage inflation? there are some early signs, but it is not obvious that has started to happen yet. if that starts

here‘s what the governor mark carney had to say.13, a depreciation caused by market expectations of a material adjustment to the uk‘s medium term prospect as it leaves the european union. the contribution to inflation of higher import prices is likely to fade gradually throughout the period. the extent to which domestic cost pressures pick up all the time and where cbi inflation settles towards the end of the forecast. mark carney. so what will this mean for our pockets? alix stewart from schroders joins us now. thanks forjoining us. what will this mean for the way we live our lives, our standard of living? well, it is hard to tell at the moment. at the moment, as mark carney said, inflation has been rising because the currency has been weak, affecting people as prices go up for imported goods. wages are not keeping up with it, and we are feeling the pinch right now. the big question going forward is actually what happens to wages. do they start to rise more quickly now that unemployment is still low? mark carney there seems to sugg

coming up is the news conference with governor mark carney. for carney: the outlook u.k.h and inflation will be influenced by the response of households, companies and financial markets to the prospect of the u.k. departure from the european union. the mpcregard, projection continues to be conditioned on a smooth transition to the average of possible outcomes for the u.k. post-brexit trading arrangement. for some time, financial markets have hadholds different responses to the u.k. decision to leave the eu. those responses have diverged. projections, the tension between consumer strength and market pessimism would be reduced over the course of this year. that process has now begun. growth moderating and inflation picking up, household spending and gdp growth have slowed. in contrast, sterling has depreciated, following market expectations of the orderly brexit process. on balance. faner in the near term previously anticipated. real incomes pick up. in the mpc central forecast, quarterly growth is affected to stabilize around the current rate. in 2017. 1.9% 1.75% in each o

anna: mark carney can be outspoken on some super thursdays.course we had the election on the horizon. >> yes, we do. if ever there was a time for mark carney not to rock the market, this could be it. as theonths ago even bank of england raised its inflation and growth forecasts, he managed to maintain a dovish tone. now there are more concrete reason for him to do that as well. these are the first comments that the boe went into pre-election fervor. analysts are saying is likely to talk down the rate hike expectations and if you look at the markets, those expectations for a rate hike have been pushed further out. in march there were something like up 50% chance of a rate hike by the 2018. by now the market has pretty much priced out the probability of a rate hike before november. thank you very much. let's talk about that breaking news crossing now. the insurance business out of italy, the largest insurer, net , also missing estimates falling versus the year earlier. q1 results concern -- confirm the strategic profitability objective has been

mark carney kicked off his mixed message on the uk economy with a warning.to be a more challenging time for british households over the course of this year. real income growth, the user to demolish the —— terminology, will be negative. use theirs, it won't keep up with prices. consumers are split between the worried and those who seem more positives ahead. no matter what you buy in the shops these days, everything has gone up in price.” do think it is going to get worser when brexit hit hard. i'm not looking forward to the consequences of brexit. we are seeing stability in the uk and that's positive. i think the economy is on the way up. i think you've got no choice but to kind of look where your money is going in terms of shopping, spending, holiday prices obviously going up as well. it's those rising prices the bank is focusing on, saying it expected inflation to rise by 2.7% this year. that is ian sharpe contrast with the rise in earnings which will languish atjust 296. -- earnings which will languish atjust 2%. -- that earnings which will languish atjust

vonnie: is it a possibility that mark carney will never raise rates again?ub -- certain a number of years left in their may not be another increase in that time. >> it is possible that he departs before get a chance to list rates. is that going to happen? we think the rates will probably go up in the second half of 2019. the uci.'s talk about forecastnd inflation is a big event today. so the projection has been raised to 2.4. it expects inflation to accelerate again at the end of the three-year forecast. is you havehave inflation being a little bit stronger. that can be the exchange rates having a bigger effect. the next chunk is the domestic weakness setting and and as the end, because the bank of england thanks interest rates are too low, that prompts too much wage growth and you have inflation going up again. it is a little bit of a roller coaster, but there's logic behind it. mark: the economy will remain around trend? >> there's not too much overheating. it is a modest mark: forecast. on wages, which we love to talk about as well, he expects no increase

mark carney kicked off his mixed message on the uk economy with a warning. time for british households over the course of this year. real income growth, to use our terminology, will be negative. to use theirs, wages won't keep up with prices. consumers are split between the worried and those that see more positives ahead. no matter what you go in to buy nowadays, even the shops, or even for the animals, whatever, everything has gone up in price. i do think it's going to get worse when brexit hits hard. so i would say i'm not really looking forward to the consequences of brexit. we are seeing stability in the uk, and that's a positive thing. i think the economy is actually on the turn, on the way up. i think you've got no choice but to kind of look where your money is going, in terms of like shopping, spending, holiday prices obviously going up as well. it's those rising prices that the bank is focusing on, saying it expected inflation to rise by 2.7% this year. that is in sharp contrast with the rise in earnings, which will languish atjust 2%. over the next

. >> more from the economic conference with bank of england governor mark carney on the effects of international financial regulations. the institute of international finance hosts the forum. >> thank you very much, tim. thank you all for taking a few moments before lunch, between tax and before lunch. that's a tough -- that's a tough slot. but i wanted to come back to the iif's washington policy summit. i was last here at a similar gathering in 2011. which was very early in the international financial reform process. and from the iif's perspective of that time and they've done a lot of thought and research about the issues at the time, there were three major concerns about that reform process. the first was whether or not the reforms were consistently implemented across the g-20, secondly, what about regulatory arbitrage, particular fli shadow banking? and thirdly, whether the reform process itself would impair the recovery that was just beginning at the time. and i'm going to start by suggesting that those debates i would suggest have been largely settled to the positive. they're being consist

we get a super -- we get a press conference from mark carney.l be part of the conversation. the mathematics are little bit different this time around. i'd they? -- around. arnot aren't they? ra: the inflation forecast is expected to be raised. the market attention is really on whether we are going to get one dissension or two dissensions on the hawkish side. there is a consensus view that we will get a 7-1 vote to keep policy unchanged. expected% is largely to be -- >> of her other colleagues in march, fighting the outlook for inflation. boeation is 2.3% above the target. but the argument for getting the policy on hold, we had heard quarter-- we had third data. consumers are feeling the pinch of brexit. and with sterling, we have seen higher cable so far this year. sterling has been rising. yesterday we saw a push towards 130 for the first time since september. guy: is the mpc credibility in question here? termsn't done anything in of raising rates for quite some time. there is a question now surrounding the ability to enact policy. it cut rates

significant real—terms pay cut for nurses. a significant real—terms the bank of england governor, mark carneyil to keep up with rising prices. as part of our reality check series on key issues in the run—up to the election, tonight steph mcgovern examines what has happened to pay. tonight steph mcgovern examines whether you think the politicians are spinning you a yarn or not, the key issues being debated are really important to lots of people, not least how much we are being paid. if you look back over the last decade, average wages in real terms have been falling. decade, average wages in real in other words, the cost of living has been going up faster than pay and that means we have been facing a pay cut. even though we have seen wages start to go up over the last few years, there is a lot of catching up to do. to go up over the last few years, before the financial crisis, average weekly earnings when you take into account inflation, were £476, now they are down to £467. inflation, were £476, now they by their very nature, these figures are averages, so therefore they vary depending on wha

the bank's governor, mark carney, said he expected only moderate growth for the uk economy.s depended on the government securing a "smooth" exit from the european union. our economics editor, kamal ahmed, is here with more details. thanks, huw. today's report actually can be summed up in about seven words. short term negative. longer term more positive. global growth is looking better, and the bank says its working on the asumption that eu deal will work out. but, the governor started with a warning about where we are now. well, this is going to be a more challenging time for british households over the course of this year. real income growth, to use our terminology, will be negative. to use theirs, wages won't keep up with prices. consumers are split between the worried and those that see more positives ahead. no matter what you go in to buy nowadays, even in the shops or even for the animals, no matter what, everything has gone up in price. i do think it's going to get worse when brexit hits hard. so, iwould say, i'm not really looking forward to the consequences of brexit

what consumers are feeling and behaving will stop this is a consumer what we think and feel, not mark carneyg us what to think and feel and what is interesting there is still a lot of confidence. your last presenter talked about uncertainty, in the face of uncertainty, there is a high degree of consumer confidence in the data we are reporting. should we be surprised by uncertainty because there are so many things going on at the moment it is hard to know which way the economy is headed. how do you navigate that?” think what is going on, there is ha rd think what is going on, there is hard data, gdp data, and soft data, such as the consumer confidence survey we run. what is going on is the two are matching. we see a level of confidence. it is just bumping along the negative. after brexit we saw it dropped dramatically, minus 12. the lowest it has been is the low 30s, during the beginning of the last financial cycle. consumer confidence is depressed but stable. notjumping confidence is depressed but stable. not jumping around as confidence is depressed but stable. notjumping around as one migh

mark carney talked last week when he gave the inflation report about it being a challenging time ahead squeeze on real wages which will affect consumer spending, and that could push through into the real economy. we have had reports that ford are set to cut 10% of their workforce potentially. it is interesting in the car industry, we had a headline that tessa had surpassed ford and general motors as the most valuable car company, yet they make a fraction of the amount of cars, it is tough times for the traditional producers? absolutely. ford making $3 billion of cost cuts, and they will be on a bit of a collision course with donald trump. there was this thing about opening a plant in mexico, and they scrapped that plan and instead promised to have morejobs in michigan. this report in the wall streetjournal, talking about 10% of jobs report in the wall streetjournal, talking about 10% ofjobs in north america and asia. 200,000 people worldwide. that's a large number of people. and ford's response has been not clear one way or the other? no, it looks as if this is quite a well sourced rep

easy job for mark carney, even with inflation a target? jamie: nobody is going to be too worried. : have a look at what is happening -- literally four minutes away from the and of the thursday session. what a day it has been. we have 30 minutes left. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ mark: live from london in new york, i am mark barton. stocks finishing up, now after , no such thingns as record highs. little movement for the benchmark this week. interesting story in the u.k., talking to jamie about it, the .conomy slowing more than .2% .he earlier estimate was .75 there are a number of things that stand out, trade, knocking 1.4%. that is record try on consumer spending, household adding the least since 2014. this is the evidence the brexit vote is hitting the economy, the squeeze on households. this is a fascinating chart. this is the german 10-year yield going back to may last year. you can see the trend from .15 to .50. economists and analysts suggest and tell us this yield will hit 73 basis points for the end of the year. thewe were unable to break 15 basis point level. first was the dutch

brexit negotiations are set to be raised this year, but governor mark carney is raising some eyebrowssed on a smooth departure from the eu, something that not many are betting on. is this decision all about brexit? brexit intertwined through about every statement made by the bank of england in its policy statement and inflation report about growth, where the economy is heading, and about monetary policy. basically, mark connie said this is a smooth path, it could be rocky for now. they can change their forecast and cap, but in this particular theing, they voted to keep rate at 0.25%, a record low. is brexit, hitting british pocketbooks. there is what mark carney said at the press conference. >> with mage growth -- wage growth watering -- wage growth reflecting market expectations of a more orderly brexit process. >> and in reference to which or really process, we shall see. but the biggest thing down the road has been seeing growth after brexit past, starting to rise again, and looking at better investment and fiscal policy -- assuming we are going to get decisions made decently with

mark carney says he may have to raise rates sooner than expected, but also said it presumed new adjustmentsthe new relationship with the european union. traders question the likelihood of that outlook, and that sent the pound down. >> we have assumed the process of leaving the european union would be a smooth one. what does that mean? there will be an agreement about future trading arrangements, and that there will be a transition for an implementation from the negotiation to the new agreement. paul: global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. sophie: on to our top stories. the philippine central bank left its interest rate at a record low, saving ammunition as inflation pressures persist. further with it the person who will take the top job at the bank in july. ,ou are a three decade veteran price stability will be a priority when you take the role of governor on july 3, but with inflation at the fastest pace since 2014, how will this shape your monetary policy outlook? >> hello. good morning. this, we areok a

what is governor mark carney -- is the bank of england right to base its forecast on a smooth brexit?e right to say that brexit happens smoothly, rates will have to go up quicker than the market is currently anticipating. as you said at the opening of the segment, investors do not believe that. i do not think anybody believes given what we have seen so far that the brexit process will be smooth and the deal will be as all-encompassing as the prime minister would like. therefore, we have a bumpy road ahead and that is not something they are sharing with the market. nok: no bumping us in -- of thess in my battle charts yesterday. this was the victor yesterday that shows the lack of volatility, the calm ahead of the election. when you look at the other key political events in recent years, brexit, 2015, scottish referendum, there is no sign of worry, which is refreshing given what we experienced pre-french election. richard: i think what this means for the pound is in the short-term, by dan amick -- the dynamic is that the pound has seen shorter upside. it would not surprise me if you sa

former lord king and mark carney. basically we should be there to watch tennis and interview them. andy murray's birthday yesterday as well. i hope the final is between you and roger. i do want roger to triumph. >> coming up, the top corporate stories, a round up of global markets, plus the white house denying reports that president trump revealed classified information to russian officials. we're live to washington with the fallout. stay tuned, "worldwide exchange" will be right back. it comes to , looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock. the white house denying a bombshell report that the president revealed classified information to russia. a live report from washington straight ahead. >>> today's market test. housing will be in focus on wall street with fren

the governor of the bank of england, mark carney, you just saw a moment ago.weak productivity performance, and in the last few months, he said the signs are that productivity has been improving. they also said monetary policy can't fully adjust or compensate for the new conditions as big as to brexit negotiations, but he said he was more positive about future growth, as long as brexit was smooth. much more analysis on what has come from the bank of england throughout the day. researchers from bristol university say hiv patients can now expect to live close to the same age as the general population. their findings represent a ten—year increase in life expectancy, since drug treatment became widely available two decades ago. here's our health correspondent jane dreaper. voiceover: it is a deadly disease, and there is no known cure. doom—laden government adverts in the 1980s warned about the dangers of the virus behind aids, and urged us not to die of ignorance. jonathan learned he was hiv positive in 1982. he didn't expect to be alive all these years later. now

the bank of england governor mark carney says the u.k.'tral bank may have to raise rates sooner than expected based on new forecasts that presume a smooth brexit. traders are questioning the likelihood of such an outlook, sending the pound down. thee have assumed that process of leaving the european union would be a smooth one. twhat does that mean? that means there will be in agreement about the future trading arrangements. that there will be a transition or an implication period from the negotiation to that new agreement. guy: andy chase is the head of european rate strategy at nomura. carney to markets, you are mispricing it. markets to carney, we ain't. andy: that line that was in there about having surprising -- was at odds with everything else in the report. i think the market look at the report and saw where the inflation forecast were lower than they were before. and just thought, there is no pressing need for us to get hikes. i wonder if they are trying to nudge the market around, rather than actually say that we are going to be h

it goes against what mark carney was trying to portray.the campaign as we go on to the election on june 8, and will they actually be watching this in the brexit impact on this? >> in terms of pay growth, that is a big concern. projections,the they show weak wage growth. i remember going to a treasury briefing on the inflation report. irving king said, we are terrified it is coming. wage growth never seems to arrive for the u.k. as your chart shows, those years of underperformance where wages group slower than inflation -- grew slower than inflation. that has not recovered enough to give people consumer confidence boost that they need best we get through brexit. francine: what do you see as the template? of aard of a warning challenging 2017, but still believe that wage growth will be close to 4% in 2019. >> everywhere in the advanced world, central bankers are seeing wages accelerate. it is been the case in u.s. and europe. we do not see them accelerating. settling --en waits wage settling. i think u.k. is not an exception. what i see on t

. >> more from the economic conference with bank of england governor mark carney on the effects of international financial regulations. the institute of international finance hosts the forum. >> thank you very much, tim. thank you all for taking a few moments before lunch, between tax and before lunch. that's a tough -- that's a tough slot.

mark carney came out and sunk the pound saying we're in for -- it will be hard for consumers and for house to holds. actually, you know what we'll interrupt you and take you back to the hearing. >> earlier this week the president where he writes while i greatly appreciate you informing me on three separate occasions that i'm not under investigation -- and i'll trying to figure out why that would even make knit to a dismissal letter. let me go to smothering direct. director, has anyone in the white house spoken to you directly about the russia investigation? >> no, sir. >> let me -- when did you last meet with the president, director mccabe? >> i don't think -- i don't think -- >> was it earlier this week. >> i have met with the president this week but i don't want to go into the details that. >> but russia did not come up the >> that's correct, it did not. >> we've heard in the news that claims that director comey had, had lost the confidence of rank and file fbi employees. you've been there for 21 years. in your opinion, is it accurate that the rank-and-file no longer supported dire

mark carney trying his best to sound more hawkish against the market.risk to the interest rates, but given the reaction in the pound and other assets, the market wasn't buying it. jonathan: his talk of, if we have a smooth brexit, seeing a smooth brexit at the moment is quite additional -- difficult thing to envision. difficult to take the government's central scenario as its scenario. i can see why he is saying that but -- >> and we have this slight change in growth forecast, the reduction to 1.9% and balancing that with the slight upticks next year and the year after. the issue is going to be for currency and vectors -- investors, how these negotiations transpired and whether we have a harder brexit that could push the pound back to 120 whether at some point, the deal is done. fall in sterling last year and now it is a question of where does it get its balance? it will be volatile both upside and downside and for here. matt: what does this mean for u.k. companies? is a beneficiary to companies who have so much riding on exports. jonathan: yes, and we

lingering effect of -- the financial crisis and the impacted have had on the psyche of bankers and mark carneynteresting. he said his ability at the output gap would close at the end of the forecast from a, which is a very powerful statement. guy: and wages will rise? scott: but right now they are not because of the situation with the currency. that is a very powerful statement. if that were true, and brexit for example, turns out to be as expected, then clearly, they are on a rate hiking cycle. obviously not today or tomorrow. confuseshat us a bid is a forward-looking nature of monetary policy. at the end of the forecast period, not right now, what is being produced on the output numbers today really is what policy did a year ago, not what policy is doing right now. matt: all right, scott, you are going to stay with us. scott thiel, cio at blackrock. coming up on the program, we will bring you our exclusive interview with italian finance minister pier carlo padoan one after fears about the bank that took the spotlight at the g7 meeting in bari. how did he calm his fellow ministers? europe's n

the bank of england mark carney won't be dashing to raise interest rates.oo much consumption, not enough manufacturing and exports. the ons report also pointed out that household spending has slowed. in a slightly different story come we also found out today that the uk housing market has, i think the phrase was, moved sideways. chuckling yes, it uk credit card use is at pretty much record highs, uk consumer debt is pretty much at record highs. the bank of england, through quantitative easing, has tried to create a wealth effect through stocks, bonds, housing, but obviously that only benefits a certain section of society. and in the end you can only spend so much. if you are a plutocrat, you only have one backside so you only need one ferrari at any given time. the trickle—down effect may not have been as much as the bank of england we re been as much as the bank of england were hoping. we also learned thanks to the minutes out of the us central reserve , to the minutes out of the us central reserve, that the fed might be raising interest rates next month ‘

even after the brexit vote, mark carney had plans in place to reassure investors and the financial community will work with him when we take power on june 8. francine: the bank of england is independent. --there a master plan ms. abbott: it took it on itself when it wasn't clear what was going to happen with the brexit vote to draw up plans to try and stabilize the currency and reinsurer international investors. i'm confident that whoever wins on june 8, the bank of england will play that role again. francine: what is the biggest concern you have in trade relationships? is it something you think about? how would you deal with the trump administration? ms. abbott: the challenge with the trump administration is that donald trump has said that he wants trade agreements that are much more in favor of the united states. ofit is a matter negotiations, how you get trade agreements which benefit everybody. francine: do you think there will be a second referendum if labour does win? ms. abbott: no. francine: what happened afterwards? you still negotiate to get out. ms. abbott: we voted to trigger art

guy: mark carney will be pressed for the timing for the bank's next rate rise this thursday.the first insight in weeks into the bank of england's thinking. we like to call these days super thursday here. still with us, howard davies, the rbs chairman. the government just needs to turn on its head. howard: i think so. i think the committee has shown a little bit of division with one or two of them thinking rates should rise. i would have thought the data we have seen recently, particularly on retail sales, is such that a bit of waiting to see is probably right. that is what i would expect. guy: how long can -- we have very negative rates in the u. k. is that sustainable? howard: in the long run, i do not see how that could be. we cannot have negative rates indefinitely. we are still unfortunately, in a recovery phase in the crisis where the rules have been suspended. most people in banks would say they hope summer malaise asian of interest rates would occur would say they hope that summer malaise nation of interest rates would occur. -- would say they hope that a normalization

a lot of people say the pressure is on mark carney to do so, but inflation is there because of base fxause of brexit naturally and the effect of sterling's depreciation, wouldn't you agree? david: i would agree. core inflation is starting to the uncertainty surrounding brexit is enormous, and i think it it will be a position the boe will state that they can't raise rates with that level of uncertainty. rishaad: right. boe will raise rates at some stage? they have to. that is a stupid question at the end of the day, but the question is win. david: i think it will be a long time in the future unless inflation takes hold. they can wait and wait arguing this brexit story, so on hold for another couple of years at least. rishaad: thank you. coming up, watching china's airlines, greater access to the united states and europe. ♪ ♪ haidi: this is "bloomberg markets: asia." i'm haidi lun in sydney. rishaad: i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. we count you down to the start of the trading day. ,ree market looking like this up point 3%, futures indicating a slightly higher rise than that. chinese

. >> we have seen in the united about it fromrd mark carney in england, more and more employment but think. is that taking place in europe and accounting for the lack of inflation? exactly, we get into where is the rate of unemployment that starts to spur the positive way growth -- which growth across europe, we have a ways to go with the unemployment rate in europe. a huge range between german unemployment and spanish or italian unemployment, as long as it for free countries have a weak labor market, the wider eurozone cpi numbers will not increase in the way you see some countries that are having a tight labor market do a lot better. there is a lot of work to be done in the employment space and europe, but that does not tarnish the broader positive upswing we expect throughout this year. >> you see yields moving higher by the new york fed believes that paper yesterday that, for the u.s., safety and liquidity that has driven the rates much lower. is it the same situation when it comes to bonds, when you need liquidity and safety, why would you be selling them? >> a buyer base in ter

mark: talk to me about the bank of england, roger. in the wake of last thursday super thursday, the attention 's wagemark carney projections, some might say optimism over the progression of wages into the distance. today we have heard from -- they say britain is facing a rocky labor market. that will limit improvement in wage growth. are you more on the side of the bank of england, or are you more cautious in this pathway of wages over the two to three-year period? roger: frankly, we just do not know. that there is a good chance we will see some sort of pick up in wage growth. i expect the economy overall is doing pretty well. we may well see an increase in productivity growth. to get real and comes up. it is not nominal earnings that matter. u.k.'s performance has been appalling. that is one reason we may be getting better. we will find both employees and employers over the next couple of years being cautious, because like everybody else, they will worry about brexit. they will not want to take that many risks. it might be in the future that we get the pace of wage increases picking up. book, don your latest you foresee a stronger or