mark cudmore joining us from singapore. you can follow live market insights from mark and the rest of the him live team by going to mliv on the bloomberg. let's get a first word news update. in the u.s., the white house has delivered a whipsaw message to south korea -- north korea and says it is open to planning a second meeting with kim jong one. but the announcement came just hours after john bolton said nuclear talks with pyongyang had stalled. president vladimir putin is hosting his counterparts from china and japan today at the eastern economic forum in vladivostok. at the same time, russia will hold joint military exercises with china in what is being called the biggest wargames for decades. u.k., the pound is holding gains after jumping yesterday. the eu's chief brexit negotiator said a deal on the uk's orderly withdrawal from the block is possible within eight weeks. are really speaking, we are going to reach the agreement in the first stage of the negotiation which is the brexit treaty. it's within six or eight

let's get right over to mark cudmore right now. asian stocks as we have been talking about retreated further. china set for the worst week since march in general thanks to the outlook for the technology sectors earnings and continued worry about emerging markets in the possibility of tariffs on another $200 billion of goods. mark cudmore is in singapore. bloomberg mliv strategist. msci index down in a bear market. think, values are low, let's by this, or is there more pain to come? >> the analysis is generally quite negative still. people still think we have more downside. i am not in that camp. i think valuations have gone to stretched. we have gone too far in the fact is we have these people who do not normally look at emerging suddenly panicking. that is a sign we are getting near the end. whenever you get a situation like this it is hard to catch a falling knife. there may be great opportunity is going to year end. a lot of this hinges on what gets delivered with the tariffs. i am in that camp that it is impossible for the u.s.

mark cudmore has some thoughts. rk: i thought there was no chance lehman brothers would be allowed to fall. erik: this is bloomberg. ♪ erik: you are watching "bloomberg best." i am erik schatzker. mark cudmore is now a colleague of ours, a macro strategist who runs our live blogging function. 10 years ago, he was a trader at lehman brothers in london. mark: late 2007, it became clear we were heading towards some type of financial crisis. i was naive to think that lehman brothers was one of the safer banks. i was brainwashed at lehman brothers and i really enjoyed it. the atmosphere was very good. in the summer of 2008, there started to become this idea that the reality was different to what management were possibly presenting to us and the situation was more dire. i was flying to budapest. there were other juniors from lehman brothers and i remember lehman brothers and i remember assuring them saturday night, look, it is absolutely fine. worst case scenario is we get taken over by bank of america. there was no idea t

joining us from singapore's mark cudmore, bloomberg's mliv strategist. , really nothing to do with the rally we see in china. is this all due to msci? >> yes. there is this addition in waiting, supporting the whole idea of china helping this gradual policy shift. signs it is aly sustainable rally. equity marketsn in china are struggling to make more downside. we know the trade war is entrenched. we know we are not going to get much respite. valuations are low in china. it is hard to go much lower. any kind of positive news could give us a little bit of a jump. that is what we have seen today. anna: in terms of the asian session, the japanese market up modestly. if you look at what has been happening in september in japan, september is strong. it has raised its year to date declines. what is going on in japan? >> this is a reassertion or reconfirmation of the whole economic steam. shinzo abe won that election to lead the party again. there might be a whole other boost. when he originally launched abenomics, that did mean equities soaring. the higher yield could explain that by the taper

mark cudmore, bloomberg mliv strategist. he has been pouring over the markets the last couple hours. let's start with hong kong and what's been happening in the asian market. when you look at the reason for hong kong going into a bear market, do you see any sign of anything changing? >> on a short-term basis, no. the sense was negative from onshore traders, mainland traders in china and hong kong. all throughout asia. the sentiment is around china. there is a double worry. we had the deleveraging at the start of the year. pboc hasurse the changed their stance through a number of steps and measures. they have not been able to turn around on short sentiment. trade war and people becoming aware it is not going to end anytime soon. we can debate what measures will be implemented, but the point is the idea we are going to reach some magical agreement soon has vanished. the sentiment is negative. it is not clear when that is going to turn around. you can argue valuations are attractive. they have looked attractive the blast two wee

we will get to that with mark cudmore. bloomberg mliv strategist. first off, asian stocks almost hitting new lows for the last year. it is really the trade war that is spooking investors, isn't it? >> absolutely. particularly, trump's comments he might employ sanctions or seize assets from chinese companies if there were intellectual property breaches. it opened a whole new avenue of threats against china. that particularly worried them today. they see it is hard to judge how far this ministry should will go. if they are threatening to seize assets, that means it is a viable threat on the table. investors are scared by that. also the big threat of a next level of tariffs that might be imposed. given we still have not got a firm date or announcement on the $200 billion being considered, that is less of an issue. that may come true in full force if the u.s. administration announced they're planning to implement the full $200 billion , that wouldn 25% really put chinese shares on the back foot and threaten the global economy again. anna: we also talked

mark cudmore, bloomberg mliv strategist. you can follow live insights from mark and the team on the bloomberg at mliv . -- writing up ups a story about jpmorgan having a long-term view about the dollar similarly. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. in the u.s., donald trump is standing by his supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh after a day of emotional intensity. the president tweeted that kavanaugh was powerful, honest, and riveting, accusing the democrats of a total sham. the judiciary committee plans to vote today. kavanaugh spoke after one of his accusers said she was 100% sure it was him who attacked her in high school. >> i do not have all the answers. i do not remember as much as i would like to. the details about that night that bring me here today are the ones i will never forget. the have been seared into my memory and have haunted me episodically as an adult. >> this confirmation process has become a national disgrace. the constitution gives the senate an important role in the confirmation process.

bloomberg strategist mark cudmore, in singapore with me now. let's keep to india, a sense of where the markets will open. soph is taking a look at that. sophie: with macro tourists coming out of the woodwork, the picture of where emerging markets go from here, a look at nifty futures. not much happening yet. this after indian stocks fell for a fourth straight day through monday, with consumer stocks leading declines on the sensex yesterday. is very much in focus after falling to a fresh record low on monday. one banks says the rupee feels the heat from the em turmoil, and jpmorgan says that this might push the r.b.i. to new monetary policy. rupee isan said, the the joker in the pack. haslinda: that is right. the rupee, in focus for a lot of investors here. still ahead, indonesia aims to shore up support of the rupiah, but some say the central bank might be running out of tools. we will discuss that. david: next, a conversation about the renminbi as markets brace for potential new tariffs on chinese imports. we ask how that could affect the curr

mark cudmore joins us now from singapore.ion is whether or not the president proposes those lump,illion in a big whether that is practical? of $50et a series billion lumps coming out of the white house on chinese goods? mark: there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment. it is not clear what the base case expectation is in the market. will this come as a lump or in stages? washington close to seem to think it is likely to be in stages. a lot of people have gotten this idea tariffs could come through as soon as today, maybe in the next couple of weeks. it is very unlikely to get the full lot at once. quickly will this be implemented? data stage might provide more traction for the u.s. government to offer a stick to be china with -- beat china with, so they can keep implementing tariffs and allow trump to keep trying a hard line on china. -- drawing a hard line on china. wayink stages will be the tariffs are implemented, over a long time. i find it very hard to believe -- we took six weeks after the first common period and three

we will be joined by mark cudmore out of singapore. mliv team making of the prospects surrounding the situation with regards to the emerging markets? the peso is untouchable, we are watching that carefully. for some strange reason. is it getting more difficult? mark: it is getting more difficult and there are divided views but i am leading the camp that feels the pessimism is getting a little bit too extreme. people are getting panicked and believe that all emerging markets are the same and they are lumping them together. there is a need for differentiation. they have been sold indiscriminately. argentina and turkey are in the midst of different crises but that should not spread to all emerging markets. we need to look at the external balances and see which countries are phone herbal and which are not. most emerging markets are probably ok. global growth is good and u.s. yields have not been going anywhere in months and the u.s. dollar also. the macro to -- backdrop is not too threatening. we still have the four biggest central bank wi

talk about the mark cudmore was telling me there could be different things driving the asian session.eing divergent performances between the dollar and treasury yields. as if there was something for everyone in the fed statement, but there may be other factors guiding asia. for emerging markets, there would be the long-term trajectory of the fed rate path. the 2019 through 2021 dots were unchanged. the rate hike cycle could end in 2020. that clarity for emerging markets is good.' investors know when to factor that in. maybe the end of the fed rate hike cycle is near. this is something emerging markets can take positively. chart calledthis end of easing. this is talking about the tightness of monetary policy. let's go to how accommodative policy is still in the u.s. investors are not reading too much into this. they read into statements from the fed, don't they? >> even when he said don't read overall,the indication taking the fed statement in in aggregateents shows the fed is speaking about what is going to happen beyond where theycle, terminal rate for the fed is going to be. is fed

can i turn our attention to what happens in china and put the same question i put to mark cudmore earlier? if the united states cannot do a deal with canada, what are the chances of them doing a deal with china? peter: i think eventually they will do a deal with china but it's a question of timing. trump will wait until after the midterm elections. it's a big trade partner for the states and for the chinese and the overall level of trade which you just an improved deal is in the interest of both. that will take time to get that done. china is not in the business of doing quick deals or being dictated to by anyone. any deal that's done is going to take time. it's also going to be necessary for both parties to save face. it's a give-and-take and it will take time. anna: fascinating talking about what we've learned so far about trade and trump and what he really wants. some analysis suggests actually despite how the trump administration hailed it has a revamp and not nafta, it's tweaks to the original nafta. i was readingnts say if he can sell the victories, that's something the global marke

let's go live to singapore to talk with mark cudmore. we first asked you about this super typhoon. we hear so much about hurricane florence and we don't hear as much here in western europe about the typhoon. asia battening down the hatches? >> absolutely, in the philippines specifically. the winds are expected to be much more powerful than florence , around 135 miles per hour. that shows the different scale here. it is much more powerful. expected to cause death -- decimation in the philippines. it is expected to be called her by the time it reaches china. -- calmer by the time it reaches china. anna: let's talk about the dollar. it is headed for its biggest weekly loss since february. is that significant? and that to do with inflation data? is it because the market is starting to wonder what the trade story means for the u.s. economy? i think there are a lot of issues feeding into it. obviously inflation pays them to part of it. people are starting to realize the next round of trade sanctions may be more negative to the u.s.. there is more doubt because u.s. equity and debt perfor

mark cudmore was saying that is an interesting one to watch than the fed which was widely priced in.: more interesting than the fed. to my juliettech saly in singapore. great work. let's get to our top story and the fed has raised rates for a third time. givend jerome powell has an upbeat assessment. >> our economy is strong, growth is running at a healthy clip, unemployment is low, the number of people working is rising .teadily, and wages are up inflation is low and stable. all of these are very good sides -- signs. that is not to say everything is perfect. the benefits of a strong economy have not reached all americans. nejra: that was fed chair jerome powell. joining us is the director of global equities at m and g, great heavy with us. thanks for joining us. i was interesting and the u.s. equity market reaction because in the last 20 minutes of trading, the s&p 500 turned lower and closed lower, futures are flat, they were higher earlier but not anymore. why do you think we saw that selloff in u.s. equities given what we heard from the fed chairman? randy: he confirmed that with

bloomberg mliv strategist and former lehman brothers trader, mark cudmore, walking us through the collapsell street giant. and by the way, if you want to read a selection of columns on the bloomberg, you can go to nibb opinion. there are a number there. chan, aus now is edward banking partner, and scott thiel. gentlemen, great to have you both with us for this discussion. let me just start with you on banks because a lot of people tell me, look, banks are in a better position right now. are they? edward: they are. what has happened over the last 10 years is that there has been of regulation affecting just about every aspect of a bank's existence. they hold about three times more equity capital than they did 10 years ago. they are smaller than they were. arguably safer. get intoey were to trouble, there are the policy tools that should help at least save at least some of them. thea: let me ask you about capital. today, the weighted average tangible ratio, the sixth largest u.s. banks, 7.7%. that is more than twice what they had on the eve of the crisis, granted, but it is still down from 8.

mark cudmore was joining us and he says it is incorrect to lump everything together, although sentimentdictate that when things pick up in turkey and argentina, suffice to say the weakest link in asia, twin deficit countries india and indonesia get looped into the basket as well. haidi: so far you are not seeing the stronger links get rewarded for having their financial houses in order. you are seeing that may be suffering the last, but there is a sense of a bit of contagion. we are going to talk more about indonesia. head of fx and currency. plus, indian economics professor antonio on trade. he says the uncertainty around tariffs is hurting the global economy even more than the impact of duties themselves. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ to rent a movie? showtime. or buy the hottest shows. even here? we've got you covered. now they are all yours. to take on the go. on any screen. bingo! alright! and watch whatever you buy. wherever you are. head to xfinity.com/stream to start watching. simple to rent, easy to buy, awesome to go. >> emerging markets is the story. turkey's new

mark cudmore in singapore. let's get you to first word news with rosalind chin in hong kong.ctivity in the sector weaken the last month reflecting the slowdown and the followed from president trump's trade war. the official pmi came at 50.8 compared with 51.3 in august. the survey slumped exactly 50. it's lowest since may of last year. the official services pmi rose, marching a domestic remains strong to president trump has denied micromanaging a new fbi investigation into supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh. the white house as a third woman who accuses him of sexual misconduct will not be included in the inquiry. however, the president tweeted -- the democrats are calling on the white house and fbi to publicly release the scope of the investigation. from the 7.5l magnitude earthquake in indonesia has topped 800. it is expected to reach into the thousands. the government has declared a state of emergency for 14 days with many of the victims found on the beach were being withheld. survivors say there was no warning sirens. of southern and western japan is at a standstill ahe

by mark cudmore. the move in the rand is excessive. it does not fit with the fundamentals.rs are selling it as aggressively as they are. erdogan hasresident udi.eared -- has declared do the fundamental stack up? an interesting comment on bloomberg. tom: i'm looking at mexican peso decidedly weaker in the last 24 hours. right now with first word news, taylor riggs. it will dig inng on key issues when nafta talks resumed today. justin trudeau said he would see the deal killed than be forced to accept a bad agreement. mustsists a new nafta include antidumping panels and a that accepts canadian industries. president trump on the new book by bob woodward says it is a con on the public. his staff is seen as consumed by infighting. the japanese prime minister is promising the budget law will keep the country's finances in order. the tax and the guaranteed citizens income promised by the populist government. officials are looking for money to pay for it. officials have said they want to keep the deficit below the european union limit. government out with the stimulus and reform pac