matt: thanks very much, mark cudmore, bloomberg's mliv strategist. u can follow live market insights from mark and the rest of the team, just type in mliv . don't forget to join the conversation on the question of the day. well the nascent commodities rally be derailed by china turmoil? let us know your thoughts by going to tv and clicking on ask the guest a question or you can shoot me or anna or mark cudmore himself and email -- any mail. let's get the bloomberg first word news. the imf has lowered its global forecast for the first time in more than two years. it sees escalating trade tensions cutting into growth and weakening emerging markets from brazil to turkey. -- fund forecast score forecasts global growth down from 2.9 predicted in july. u.s. resolvethe their disagreements would be a and atto the forecast, some level it is not surprising that we are more tentative in our optimism that we were six months ago. juliette: italy's deputy prime minister says europe's real enemy is shown called euchre -- is jean-claude juncker. he says next

cudmore -- vonnie: mark cudmore, thank you. the first wordon news. erdogany's president isn't buying the saudi version of the murder of jamal khashoggi. he says his death in the saudi consulate istanbul was the result of a thoroughly planned plot and he wants the saudi king to hold the perpetrators to account. erdogan also said the 18 suspects identified so far should be tried in turkey. saudi's have given the strongest indication yet that they're trying to keep oil prices from rising further. the saudi energy minister says that opec and its allies are in a produce as much as you can mode. trump is counting on saudi cooperation once sanctions on iran's oil industry take effect next month. president trump will meet with his chinese counterpart xi jinping next month in india. the leaders will be attending the g 20 summit in buenos aires. that will be the first time they met since president trump imposed tariffs on chinese products and beijing retaliated. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists an

hong kong isw from mark cudmore, bloomberg's mliv strategist in singapore actually. good to have you with us on the show. let's start with the mliv question of the day. i will get this right even if your location isn't correct. this is about the s&p 500 and about whether we will hit another record by year-end. we saw a strong rally across all three benchmarks. yesterday, up 2%, although of them, for the first time since march 26. will it have fresh records by year-end? 5% away fromonly making a fresh record. if you put that in the context of a 2% rally yesterday, it is feasible on a time basis. the earnings, it's early in the season, but it started exceptionally strong in the u.s.. he names reported good results. reported good results, important names in different sectors. yettrade war is not biting on the corporate earnings and i think that is important, especially as manus points out, with fidelity highlighting this is when we were going to expect some kind of signs. it does not mean the detrimental effect of the u.s.-china trade war will be postponed. it may not h

haidi: let's bring in our strategist, mark cudmore.t to follow the losers, or could we see losses stemmed somewhat here? follow think asia will the u.s. in a more controlled fashion. u.s. stocks were more vulnerable for a correction. asian acres will open lower but i don't expect it to spread across assets. contained is pretty so we will see lower prices and they were probably sit there. the next trigger, china markets are likely to break a two-year low. i don't expect a followthrough panic, but that is what traders will be waiting for. haidi: the topics falling 3%, set for the biggest drop since march. are we going to see cross asset volatility or contamination in the asia session? mark: i don't think we will at all. we will see recalibration of equity markets. we expect bullish equity markets to open sharply lower. we will see a slight tick up across in volatility because there will be portfolio readjustment. overall it's not like fx volatility is suddenly going to take off. i think it will be relatively necessarilyut not volatile tr

mark cudmore from the mliv team will give us his thoughts. take your pick. brexit we have become so board of. no one wants to talk about it. things are getting to a critical level in brexit talks. this is a massive week that means the potential for volatility. on the other side, i do not think german politics is something to worry about. merkel has come through this before. some of my colleagues disagree. i personally dismiss german politics. italy is a massive risk. the fact we have had these confrontational comments from the italian government rate up to the official submission of the budget, it is a worrying --n, especially if we have next week in italy. italy and sterling have massive risks and could go either way. the expectation is there is a base case of positivity, that the eu and you cable race -- and u.k. will reach an agreement. both scenarios have a positive base case. the risks are massive in both. the key thing to know is that eurosterling volatility already climbed the couple weeks, could rise further. brexitspecially the aree and the italian

nejra: thank you so much to mark cudmore, bloomberg mliv strategist. you can follow insights from the team and join the conversation on today's question of the day at mliv . let's get the bloomberg first word news. donald trump says he is uncertain whether his administration will participate in that saudi investment conference. that follows the disappearance of jamal khashoggi. the president told reporters that treasury secretary steven mnuchin will decide by friday whether to attend the meeting in riyadh. several companies including bloomberg have pulled out of the future investment initiative event as media partners. microsoft's ceo has weighed in on the disappearance of jamal khashoggi. nadella said reports the government killed him is sad and counterproductive to progress he hopes to see. >> it is a real step back. i was hopeful for saudi arabia in terms of the opportunity for the citizens there, the women in saudi arabia, as reforms were going to be put in place. >> italy's ruling coalition has reached a last-minute agreement on the budget. pl

mark cudmore, bloomberg mliv strategist. to follow thet blog on a day like today, get market insights from mark and the rest of the crew and find out the answers to today's mliv question of the day, which is how long is this going to last? is this temporary? is this the kind of thing you need to run to the hills and hide from? how far will the s&p 500 fall. let's get the first word news with juliette saly. donald trump has stepped up his attack on the federal reserve. hours after the worst wall street selloff since february. has he arrived in consulting you for a campaign rally, he told reporters the central bank is wrong to raise interest rates. the u.s. treasury secretary steven mnuchin and said yesterday's rout on wall street was just a correction and not a reflection of a wider american ship -- issue. bali, indonesia come as fresh concern about the trade war with china has sparked a broad stockmarket selloff. investors are concerned the trade war means american companies may not be about to deliver the runaway growth in t

mark cudmore from singapore, thank you so much. you can get a market rundown in one click.ing commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors. a look now at what to expect this week. joining us out of hong kong is black rocks at list, -- black rocks analyst, isabelle mateos y lago. what is concerned -- what is concerning is what is next for the brexit. there is some concert -- off -- there is uncertainty. isabelle: we will be watching the earnings season. for us, the market is in an equilibrium. there is constructive growth as a box drop. backdrop. the imf expects that to continue for the next couple of years. above trend level. there is a lot of noise and uncertainty in the background are nearly related to trade tensions. we are going to watch for confirmation that the growth story is on track because without that, it is difficult to have any positive market performance. also, we are keeping an eye on the geopolitical risks and any signal that the trade tensions are not the escalating. -- are not deescalating. and the fed. against the backdrop of the recent market

haidi: thanks for that, mark cudmore.irst word news with jenna dagenhart in new york. a longer delay in breaking the deadlock in brexit talks. bloomberg was told prime minister theresa may is extending -- a proposal to extend it for 21 months. to give willingness ground during top-level talks in brussels the last few hours. the trump administration is warning against putting u.s.-saudi relations at risk because of the jamal khashoggi affair. saying turkey will publish its investigation into what happened in istanbul. turkish police have searched the building and residents of the saudi consul who left the country on short notice tuesday. president trump is painted with raw the u.s. from a 192 nation treaty that gives chinese companies a discounted shipping rate for packages sent to american buyers. officials say the administration tried to revise the universal postal union last month, but was rebuffed. manufacturers group saying the discounts are subsidy for chinese shippers that has cost the u.s. postal service $170 milli

mark cudmore, can you move to the u.s.? david: we are not letting you go. r been told it's a brilliant question before. mark: i will remember that for the future. alix: that's entirely true. i like you before. we have some eco data and mario draghi's press conference. futures holding on to the gains after yesterday giving up all the gains for the year. s&p futures up by about 20 points. gainolding on to their as well despite some er dataco -- eco data that ruled over. the dollar up .2%. it has been a stronger dollar story over the past few weeks. we were just talking about italy. tons of buying coming to the long end. selling at the long end in the u.s. up by four basis points. the direct bidders showing up? we will be waiting for mario draghi's press conference. we will be joining that in a few moments. we want to get to the eco data in the u.s. third-quarter gdp. durable goods orders coming in better than estimated, up by about 20% in september. if easter about the -- by abou -- david: mike mckee is our policy correspondent. you always see the numbers much

mark cudmore, thank you very much. you can follow live insight from mark and the rest of the team ,go..loomberg on mliv when does the oil prices hit developed nation equities? tell us your thoughts and what you think. go to tv and click on the ask a guest a question button. ,et's get the first word update from singapore here is juliette saly. juliette: the u.s. federal reserve chairman said the central bank may raise interest rates to levels where they begin to restrain economic growth. though that is some ways off. the comments come after rates were raised last week for the third time this year. stock prices have flirted with record highs, and the yield on tenure treasuries has reached its highest level since 2011. >> interest rates are still accommodative, but we are moving to a place where they will be neutral. we may go past neutral, but we are a long way from neutral. has set nextly year's deficit target at 2.4% of gdp with a commitment to reduce it in 2020 and 2021. the partial concession to the european unio

caroline: we just had a rather passionate mark cudmore joining us, telling us that the market shouldfar more excited by the fact that the government are really selling behind the market now. it might not be so much that the national team is buying, but shouldn't it be the rhetoric they are listening to as well? shery: it's been a while since we saw this coordinated effort coming from authorities in beijing. president xi jinping is committing unwavering support for non-state firms. exchangesve stock coming out and saying they are going to try to reduce the risks of these pledged shares. at the same time, we have the government releasing a plan to cut personal income taxes. remember, the tax structure could be one way that china could shore up its economy, because it is one of the most heavily taxed economies. personal income tax is about 45%. business income tax is around 25% -- business taxes around 25%. i've heard analysts talk about this area of the economy that could work better. what you are looking at is a chart of the shanghai composite, just rising more than 4% in the session

francine: let's go to singapore with mark cudmore. we are hearing the president called the fed crazy. what is behind this move? equities have fallen for treasuries and currencies are holding. mark: that is a very important point, this is equity focused, and a lack of contagion to other assets. a little today of extenders but no big panic. it is concentrated on one asset class, but the pain is intense across equities. there is no one dominant reason, there has been a surge higher in yields, then the tech sector was hit by concern about earnings. then there is increased complaints that the trade war, there are a number of things coming in. what happened yesterday, we broke some technical levels that stopped short term traders and we got passive investors. they have to sell and reduce their risk. there are a number of factors coming together. in isolation none would be sufficient but in a margaret that is vulnerable, single stock equity was low. we have this market that is complacent, and minor catalysts came in at once and has turned the

great work from mark cudmore.ou can of course follow all of the market insights from mark and the rest of the team. log on to the bloomberg and mliv. let us know your thoughts on one higher oil price becomes a risk wheneveloping nations -- higher oil prices become a risk for developing nations. what's next for yields and u.s. assets? ,oining us now is elsa lignos and james bevan. james, is it a game changer of treasuries continue going higher or not? james: absolutely not. if you were say -- if you were to say that nominal bond yields are heading about economic growth, that is a game changer. francine: what does that mean for the dollar? good it means a relatively environment for the dollar but particularly against the japanese yen. dollar-yen is one of the most leveraged places in foreign exchange on u.s. rates. that is really where we see the impact going forward. --isere a feedback loop there francine: is there a feedback loop that dollar goes to height there could be contagion from emerging markets? elsa: at t

joining us now from singapore is mark cudmore, bloomberg and strategist.esterday we were talking about whether the deal around trade that we have seen in north america countries strike. whether this tells us about the willingness to do a multilateral trade deal and this could be good for china. progress was possible, deals could be done and now we have a slightly more negative spin on things. mark: it depends on perspective. we cannot draw firm conclusions. . am going in the positive camp overall we have not seen the north american trade agreement has been overhauled, it has been slightly tweaked. there is a lot of bluster and tweets but we do not get any big change. with china we can still be positive. it is on holiday this week that there is no conclusion to get much more bearish because it cleared the slate. it is in line with what he is doing all along. wills note tension so it not be resolved with china. that does not mean that it will continue ad infinitum. i do not see a reason to take a more negative spin on trade. sensing a risk off town and marke

us from singapore is mark cudmore, bloomberg mliv strategist. also, we are joined by the head of global fundamental equities at rebecca. let's keep it simple for a moment. do we expect the pboc to halt the dollar rally? i thought the chinese light a weaker -- like a weaker currency? mark: they have not wanted to see dollar-yuan trade above seven. they don't want to serve -- stir that capital outflow story. a week ago, i would have been clear that the pboc would have come in and stopped dollar rising. after this week of turmoil, given the dollar, interest rates, oil markets, and the itest story on the hack, is hard to know the official reaction of where they want the yuan to trade on monday and the message it sends for the dollar. anna: good morning to you. your thoughts on where we see the dollar rally go because dollar rally was the story of the first part of the year and then it stalled in august -- or september, and now we have seen it stronger of late. what will the chinese make of all of that? >> there are two dollar stories here. versus th

joining us now from singapore is mark cudmore. great to see you as always.o what extent has the threat of rising protectionism been taken away as a risk to market? : to a large extent it has been downgraded. isis not as if this new deal particularly brilliant for either mexico or canada. it is the fact that we have reached a deal. it might make more time -- take more time. this shows that overall the u.s. will reach trade deals with many of these countries. one that looks for this to way is the china-u.s. deal. it does send a clear message that trade wars are not here permanently. overall, we can get to a positive solution. that has been a big risk holding down markets this year. good morning. commodity markets watching what is going on in the trading conversation very closely. will we see an upside? will it be just about oil or will other areas follow? mark: on one side, you have a better demand outlook. especially as the risk appetite improves. equities seem to have bottomed out. muchll, there is a betterment halliday toward taking risks. on top of that, o

your chart, but i will go havealex on this because i been having an interesting conversation with mark cudmoreer the rating commodities and what that does for emerging markets, whether that story is close to an end or is beginning. thank you to both of you for the charts. you can find all the charts we have been using through the program. gtv is the function to do that. -- in contrast to the french number of of estimates. a mixed bag on services. "surveillance" is up next. ♪ francine: the euro jumps on a report that italy they cut their budget deficit. bond yields seat relief. theresa may is set to paint a rosy picture of her efforts. as the conservative party comes to a close, the pound gains. sky fall, shares in the james bond's favored carmakers slide. we talked to the chief executive shortly. welcome, i am francine lacqua in london.

anchor: that is our strategist, mark cudmore, and you can find more on bloomberg.pert commentary, analysis on assets that are moving at the moment, and what is affecting investment, as well. right, let's turn to samsung electronics now. it just posted orderly profit es,t topped analysts' estimat but it did bring concern for the chip business for the coming quarter. how good are the numbers for samsung? reporter: definitely a record high, both in terms of operating profit and other profit. it has been said that, as you point out, there is some concern , in fact increasing concern, that the prices will start two wing in the next quarters, challenging for samsung to sustain such high growth rate in terms of profit. quarters,next two challenging for samsung to sustain such high growth. anchor: what about the areas like handsets and the display divisions? any more positive sentiment there? anthea: this is triggered by the new iphone, so we expect operating profit to have a huge effect. next year, there will be more competitors coming out to supply the same apple, and at

byx: now we are joined bloomberg's editor for global business and mark cudmore. both joining us from london. excited to have you here. this is the chart we are looking at. it is worldwide stocks set for the worst month in three years. are we at the bottom? p? you buy the di >> we are in risk aversion. it is the worst month in three years. good, longn in a rally. now we shifted to higher volatility. that doesn't mean the world is ending. growth is going down a little bit next year, 3.8% to 3.6%. david: companies are reporting earnings that are disappointing. we had caterpillar yesterday. how much is triggered by company stories? 25% through%, reporting in this earning cycle. all but 15 of the companies he forecasts. daystock prices the next fell an average of 0.5%. what you are seeing is pressure on comps affecting the bottom line. market is looking for tensions around trade tariffs. some of this is creeping up in the rhetoric you are hearing from companies. from thet i love caterpillar conference call with the cfo saying we can't growth that fast all the time. a

now on the action in the markets is mark cudmore. first of all, what is the market latching onto?here seems to be geopolitical concern and trade were concerned. i think one of the problems this morning is there are so many different catalysts and each one would not be detrimental. storyve the saudi arabia -- the german political story. the hangover of equities last week and the turmoil. overall, there is a negative mood that is making people higher risk. most important in the case of expectwhich he case, you it to be quite optimistic. the problem is a very large risk and detrimental. marketsems emerging have a little bit of a comeback in terms of the position. yes, i think easing in the .ollar has helped the yield on the dollar is the combo. the third part has been the rally in oil. i know it is big visible in the saudi arabia story. oilhave the dollar yield in and that is providing some relief for emerging markets and that is going to continue. i don't think you need all the dollar yield but if two out of three, overall, they should do ok. more differentiation needed. spurat is g

cudmore, thank you for joining us. you can follow insights from marknd the rest of the team at let us know when higher oil prices become a risk for developed equities. message the rest of the team by hitting tv go on your bloomberg. we have a guest on set we could put a question to later in the hour. powell has been talking policy once again. this is the fourth time he has spoken in as many days. tois raising interest rates levels where they begin to sustain economic growth. >> they are still accommodative. we are gradually moving to a place where they are neutral. past neutral, but we are long -- a long way from neutral at this point. nejra: jay powell, speaking in washington. us now is the head of european equity strategy at jpmorgan. the 10 year yield is having its highest since 2011. -- 30 yearrope's yields are also hitting a 40 year high. is this a game changer for equities? the fed is moving from outright extreme accommodation still accommodation. powell is implying they are not even neutral yet. rates are still stimulative. i think we need to ge