mark mccormick with td securities has been resilient dollar all year.illed to have you wanted this historic moment for the people of turkey. i was out at 3.2 standard deviations half an hour ago. we have now collapsed out to 3.6 standard deviations, getting very close to what the textbooks would say is a point of crisis, four standard deviations out. how close is turkey to unraveling their financial system? mark: we are already pretty much there in terms of the major pivot point. i think what we are seeing is two factors. there's the local factor and the global factor. there's the negative feedback loop, and there is no credibility and how the government will manage its finances, and how the central bank will operate within that framework. so the market has completely lost confidence. when we get to the inflection point, it becomes a nonlinear rather than a linear discussion, and this is where we get the four standard deviation moment. at some point, someone will step in. in terms of whether or not it is the market, the month of risk premium it will car

tom: mark mccormick of td securities.oment the turkish lira in a four standard deviation freefall. that is reversed. the headline explains mr. erdogan has left -- has met with the central bank head to discuss the lira. from 13.50 212.56. less of a challenge than what we saw an hour ago. damian sassower our with us with his wonderful knowledge of em. i want to paint the picture of it is temple of another time and place where there was the saint regis hotel in the burgeoning international excitement and at the top was a rooftop deck and wolfgang puck's restaurant and all of the other excitement. it is gone. what does a cratering currency due to an economy? what does it do to your financial city? damian: you're asking two questions. harkening back to a prior lifetime, turkey was a vibrant economy. they had electronic shareholder and voting and convocations. that is a different story. in terms of what is the weaker lira made to the economy, the central bank is useless in its attempt to stimulate growth. confidence had been lo

i think of mark mccormick at td securities or david bloom at hsbc, those were lonely calls 13 or 14 monthslisa: i think about emily roland. we'll be speaking with her on the open about how she views the strong dollar in light of a potentially active federal reserve. tom: stay with us. travel carefully today. more economic data at the 10:00 hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ritika: president biden's build back better plant has a tax cut for millionaires but the megarich would pay more, that is according to data by the congressional tech scorekeepers. millionaires are said to pay a higher average tax rate. those earnings only single-digit millions could end up paying less. elon musk has resumed selling shares of tesla and is more than halfway to making good of his promise to offload 10% of his stake, he is uploaded about $9.9 billion a share. china is ambiguous in its position over u.s. let release of strategic oil reserves. the country is named as one of the participants in the effort, but so far all beijing says is it will arrange the release based on its own reality and needs. the eu

it is mark mccormick and his resilient dollar with some nuances for next year, but leading the chargee is priya misra, head of global rates strategy, into the far future. on the cover of your stunning report, you have the most important chart i have seen in fixed income in 20 years. credit suisse showing the fed funds rate and the ois for everyone's guesstimates that we have gotten wrong. you say once again we have got it wrong. priya: this sort of tells you that rates strategists on the market doesn't always call the fed. at the market is being really torn with high inflation. so the market is pricing in the first rate hike right after when tapering ends. our view is that huge impact on inflation will start to decelerate. so growth is going to slow. and inflation has peaked. it is not obvious to us that the fed has to turn around and start hiking aggressively. we actually have the first rate hike much later than when the market is pricing in, a steeper curve, the front end staying anchored. but it is ultimately a view on the economy and the outlook on the economy as we recover into t

dollar, and we have had that david blum, mark mccormick resilient dollar this year, and that doesn'tewell for em. jonathan: people think things will slow down again. you know what is going to happen? the dollar will get stronger. we can see that all over again. i am looking at this equity market now, a close of 4600. 5300 on the s&p the call from bmo. lori calvasina, 5050 on the s&p. at the low end, we are looking for 4400 over at morgan stanley. servetus subramanian has been -- savita subramanian has been less constructive. there call, 4600 for year end 2022. just a flavor of some of the calls coming out on this benchmark going into next year. tom: to see revision not only off the president's comments this morning, but the science we see read i just did a loose extrapolation. i just eyeballed it on a monday morning. you can really do that on bloomberg radio. the extrapolation of the bottom of 2020 out to $150 a barrel on oil is late summer of 2023. that is if we keep this trend going. jonathan: to be clear, i have not seen anyone change any forecasts off the back of what is happened