joining me is the ceo of the democratic polling firm, mark melman. great to see you. >> pleasure to be with you. >> gauge where you think the race is right now. >> i think there's a slight advantage for obama in the national numbers. i think the has a bigger advantage in the swing states. i give a slight advantage to the president, but this is a close race anding go either way. >> have you ever seen anything like this? there do seem to be so many swings, a lot of inconsistencies. what do you think is going on? >> well, we do see this in polling at the state level quite often. less so nationally. the reality is in a close race, you will see people moving back and forth. you'll see events and so on that have an impact on the race. the debates, other events. the truth s doing good polling is getting harder. it's getting more difficult. it's getting more expensive. and there's a lot of bad polling out there. the bad polling is going to be inconsistent. it's going to be wrong. and it's going to come with different results. unfortunately, we have a lot of

joining me pollster mark melman democratic strategist, alex sword, former labor secretary robert reichnd melissa harris perry. until then follow me on twitter. "now" with alex wagner comes your way next. ah. fire bad! just have to fire roast these tomatoes. do you churn your own butter too? what? this is going to give you a head start on your dinner. that seems easier sure does who are you? [ female announcer ] new progresso recipe starters. five delicious cooking sauces you combine with fresh ingredients to make amazing home-cooked meals. ♪ ambiance [ female announcer ] new progresso recipe starters. your head-start to home cooked. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all stan

mark, i know you've probably done your major workout this morning when you arrived overnight. >> i did 25 minutes on the elliptic elliptical. >> that is major. >> kel melmanho managed burns re-election campaign said in a presidential year three months out you can only do 30 minutes of aerobic exercise a day. that's ken's rule. he won 2004. i'm going with that. >> you'll win, that's good. >> what about ryan defending his record? >> i think he's going to be extremely well prepared for lines of attack that joe biden's going to have. but again -- i think that paul ryan's going to do pretty well. he is aggressive. he likes to engage. he likes to fight. we've seen that in the house for a while. >> i think it's going to be played to both of their strengths that they're seated because they have a personal relationship. they kind of like each other, as strange as that may seem in the political world. >> yes. >> when seated you're not as combative. >> that's right. >> it's a different dynamic. >> very conversational. it's amazing people aren't questioning whether ryan will be nervous. he's a poised guy. so much national experience. dine think anybody thinks he's go