. >> my partner in the political unit mark murray and this guy over here from -- >> partner in crime. partner in crime. >> chris. >> he's got a ton of titles. >> i'm trying to make the title as long as possible. title instead of money. >> it's all about this battle for the senate. mark, first of all, one of the things -- obviously, there's a lot of attention put to delaware and alaska and connecticut. what are the five closest senate races that nobody is watching? >> the tossups are in illinois and pennsylvania and wisconsin, west virginia. you probably add nevada in there as well. so much attention has been placed on delaware and alaska, we know because of christine o'donnell, the palin, joe miller feud in alaska. but these are the true toss-ups and the ones we stay up real late on election night and could end up determining the control of the senate. >> there's this ad by the democratic national committee for the senate campaign committee -- dscc -- kill me. they're doing it in nine states. what do the nine states they chose tell you about the races? >> it tells us not surprisingly

i'm joined by deputy political editor mark murray.g republicans and saying how republicans don't want her to win, the audio wis distorded. but it's shocking. >> it is. it's also a reminder never to have a meeting knowing you may be taped, it may be used against you. that's what happened this this case. the tea party candidate, the third party candidate basically released this 38-minute video. in part slairn ankle took a shot at the republican party saying the republicans lost their standards, they lost their principles. that's why the republican party is fighting against me. they never went along lower taxes and less government. really tough words there. but the bigger point is, and a lot of people don't realize this, it's not just not harry reid versus sharron angle. there are a couple other third-party candidates. there's also none of the above. which means the winner will only need 45% of the vote. sharron angle was telling this guy, drop out, you can beat reid. >> she's saying, you can't be the tea party candidate. i'm the tea par

and mark murray is nbc news political director.ay. >> listen, i have a new toy i wanted to show off here. i wanted to talk about that pennsylvania senate race right here. now, here's -- here we go. we're going to the senate race. pennsylvania. let me pull it up. and there we're seeing it. the lead here, joe sestak, 42%. the amazing thing about this is that he has been trailing behind pat toomey for quite a number of months. and now it looks like the race tightening up. to what so do you attribute the movement? >> one of the reasons is that democrats are coming back home. they have a substantial voter registration against republicans. remember barack obama won the state by 10 plus percentage points in 2008. this environment is a republican leaning environment. that seems to be benefiting toomey. this is as to-up, increasingly competitive. toomey's might have a fingernail's advantage. >> let's move to the west coast now. this california news has been really incredible. the l.a. times poll has barbara boxer now showing 50% and carly f

on the heels of that, let's bring in mark murray, nbc political news director. >> good morning, alex.'s talk about your newsweek polling. does this suggest that the republican race may not be a run away? >> well, our own "wall street journal" poll showed a little bit of a dumb in the democrats and president obama's favor. but that newsweek poll is a little bit more favorable than í<$ oth showed. í<$ oth what it's striking to me is the advantage that democrats have among registered voters. our poll showed that, as well. but the key thing to watch is likely voters, not the wider universe of registered voters. and when you look at likely voters, there is a sense of who is going to turn out to vote? right now, almost everyone thinks it's going to be heavy on the republican side, a much wider, older electorate. we've seen president obama on the west coast, going to college campuses, trying to get their base out. i don't know what's going to happen on election night. things are pointing in the republicans' favor but that's how democrats will stave off losses is by getting their people to th

mark murray is nbc news's deputy political director. he joins us with more. bill clinton in michigan. tell us about it. >> chuck, it wasn't michigan, he was campaigning for john dingell, the longest serving house member ever who has won comfortably in past elections, 71% in 2008, but in in a sign that democrats are very nervous, even democrats like john dingell, bill clinton was stumping for him over the weekend. take a listen. >> but i'm not just here on a personal mention and i'm not just here for a whoopty do. i like all this enthusiasm, but frankly there are a few things about this election that have gotten me somewhere between disturbed and ticked off. >> well, recent detroit poll had dingell up -- ahead with 53% of the vote, above that important 50% threshold but democrats, as you can see, are clearly nervous. >> yeah. and you can tell by that backdrop, though, that the dingell campaign hasn't done a big event in a long time, sort of an odd backdrop there mark, i want you to stick around. i want you to listen to this soundbite this is the rhode island d

nbc's deputy political director, mark murray, is on the set now.o what extent did you confer with tom as you put together your line of questioning tonight? and tom used the word at one point "sacrosanct." was anything in that category? >> this is tom's debate. you know it's a big sport, big team, and we were able it help out tom as long possible. >>> i've been following this from my tv and shows across the country. i've heard the back and forth between debates. tom mentioned he's been following california politics for a very long time. there were several people who flew from washington, d.c., to help tom out. i think he had a great time. you know, i've been following all the debates so far between jerry brown and meg whitman. this is the best so far. >> and that's what i was going to go in to with you. putting in perspective, the three dates weather and traffic did you see different? what were voters able to glean? >> we saw a very impressive meg whitman. she's behind by five to seven points. i think the tone of the debate reflected that. certainly

and nbc's deputy political director mark murray will also join us with insight on both campaigns and the impact potentially of tonight's debate. >> so where do we stand going into this debate? we know that every vote counts, and the candidates certainly know that, too. especially aware of that this evening with a new poll just released that proves that. want to show you what it looks like. of 670 likely california voters polled, 47% say they'd vote for brown. 43% support whitman. of course, that poll has a margin of error of 3.9%, which basically means that it's neck in neck. 2% say they're still undecided, but other polls show that that margin of undecided voters is much bigger than that. so really tonight could be the make it or break it night for each one of those candidates as those undecided voters hear what the candidates have to say and decide which one is for them. >> it's the independents who have held sway for a long time now in this state. both candidates have a rich bay area history, and certainly strong ties to the community. we're going to begin with meg whitman, former

joining me to talk more about it, "nightly news" news deputy director mark murray.first read analysis. why are we seeing more talk about the health care situation? >> well there's no question the economy is issue number one. however, there really isn't much more that congress can do or at least has the will to do when it comes to the economy. it's really in the theoretical stage. health care is a perfect contrast. so you have someone like harry reid who voted and spearheaded the health care reform law. on the other hand you have sharron angle who wants to repeal it. in a debate like that, it's not just in the nevada senate race. we're seeing this in debates across the country. >> you also say many of these thought it would be a refer dumb on the president. but it's about at least two other people. >> that's right. most people set up the midterms among president obama. if you look at any poll out there, people are much more unpoplar than president obama. that includes nancy pelosi and harry reid. when you look at tv ads across c the country, they mention pelosi. some

but harry reid does the right thing. >> let's bring in mark murray, nbc news deputy political directorsident is weighing in, on behalf of the gubernatorial candidate there mark dayton. he's facing a challenge from the republican tom emmer, an independent voter play. what is the takeaway here? >> despite the overall political environment that's benefiting republicans right now, democrats feel pretty good about this gubernatorial contest. democrats will be taking a beating in the midwest, those big ten states but democrats have an even odds chance of winning that contest. you mentioned the democrat in the case former senator mark dayton, the republican is tom emmer, who some feel is a little too conservative to win this contest. this is the contest to replace tim pawlenty who is retiring. one piece of trivia, despite that minnesota's democratic-leaning nature, a democrat hasn't held this governor's mansion since 1991. democrats are trying to reverse that trend. >> can i just ask about tim pawlenty. you say he's retiring, bus hee a guy whose name gets bantered about for a presidential run

with me now is nbc news deputy political director mark murray. with ken strickland in the commercial break. there's so many scenarios out there. one in particular is what will happen after this so-called, if it happens to be, a wave election or a change election for the gop. what would this do to the obama administration? >> well, it would curtail his effort to really have big pieces of legislation. that took a filibuster proof number of democrats in the senate to be able to pass that, as well as having substantial majorities in congress. so in some respects the big change items are probably off the table come 2011, 2012 if republicans take back the house and senate. however t there are places that they could find agreement on deficit reduction, education, maybe an issue like immigration. so there's still some legislative items that they could work on. the bigger question is if it improves his chances on winning in 2012. >> what does history say to us about voters and the desire to have, what some may see as a balance between congress and the pre

. >> mark murray, thank you, sir. >> thank you. >>> so the pentagon is bracing for the possibility of a new document release by wikileaks. a pentagon task force is in the process of reviewing some 400,000 classified documents related to that conflict. >>> we've all heard it before, it is doubted as the happiest place on earth. but tempers were flying on a disney shuttle bus in orlando. this is home video, take a look, taken of a shoving match that broke out between a shuttle driver and the pass eker. the passenger was holding his baby after the fight broke out. the fight broke out after the bus driver told the passenger that the bus was full. >> waiting here and everyone passed through before us. >> disney is saying that the driver is on paid leave while it reviews that case. it got a little heated. >>> two people are in the hospital with serious injuries today after the driver of this volvo station wagon took the phrase drive through window a little too literally. the vehicle smashed into the window and the wall of the restaurant after police said the driver mistook the gas pedal for

first read now mark murray's just writing now, privately republican officials tell first read the controversial tv ad hitting joe manchin and featuring hickey actors will be rotated out of the rotation. the republicans want to make sure, the national republican senatorial committee had nothing to do with the costing call for hickey actors. it's got to be somewhat embarrassing to be seen sort of, let's separate it out even more. the us versus them. the high class versus low class sort of strategy. >> right. well, you know, i'm of two minds on this. on the one hand if you watch these campaign ads you can tell that these people are actors, they're not real voters most of the time. sometimes they are. you can frequently tell that it's staged. the fact is there is something comical about a party that's calling for tax cuts that would proportionally benefit high-income earners who are sort of trying to recruit people who look like real people to try to sell a message that is in many ways tailored, actually, toward a different segment of the population. and this is a common democratic critique of the

nbc deputy political director mark murray joins me.good day to you. >> hi, alex. >> let's get first to the president, what he is trying to do by hitting the trail, if you will to energize the youth vote out there in terms of the difference the youth can make this midterm election, what are the expectation there is and if you look at the past is it realistic to expect them to make a difference, 'cause it's a midterm? >> alex, every vote is going to mat they are election season, certainly where democratic-controlled house could come down to one race across the country. so they are really trying to do things at the margins and is at the margins they do think it will help. look, midterm elections, fewer people vote in those than in presidential contests and that's true for younger voters and it is especially true for this midterm cycle. our recent nbc/wall street poll showed that just 35% of young voters 18 to 34 show high interest in the midterms compared to 65% of seniors who say that. so, the youth really aren't fired up and that's why

it is my pleasure to introduce mark murray, nbc news deputy political director. the floor is yours. [applause] >> thank you for that very kind introduction. now, to introduce the stars of this panel. currently serves as a strategic consultant to many fortune 500 companies and ceo's end as an adviser corporate leaders like bill gates, steve ballmer, and bill for. in 2008, he was the chief strategist for hillary clinton's presidential campaign, and he also served as senior advisor to former president bill clinton and former british prime minister tony blair. he writes a weekly micro waitrons column for the wall s j." now on to karen hughes -- the quality wallace j. -- the "wall street journal." now, onto karen hughes. she served as counselor to president george of the bush from 2001 through 2002, advising the president on communications. she returned to texas on 2002 but continued serving as an informal advisor for the president and she served as a consultant for the 2004 bush /cheney reelection campaign. she served as director of communications for the governor bush in texas and was

it is a pleasure to introduce mark murray. [applause] >> thank you for the very kind of tradition. -- introduction. we will start with mark penn, a strategic research performed ceo. he is a strategic consultant to many forced fortune 500 companies, and his adviser to corporate leaders like bill gates, steve ballmer, a and bill ford. he was part of hillary clinton's presidential campaign and served as senior adviser to bill clinton and former british prime minister tony blair. he is the co offer of "micro trends. he writes a weekly micra trend column for the wall street journal. now want to karen hughes. chairman global vice of for company and served as undersecretary of state for public diplomacy from 2005 to 2007. she also served as counselor -- for president george w. bush, advising the president on policy and communications. she returned to her native state of texas in 2002 but continued serving as informal adviser of the president. she was a consultant to the 2004 bush-jenny reelection campaign. she served as director of c

it is my final test introduced our moderator, mark murray, the nbc news political director. he has reported on political trends and issues. he is a frequent on their contributor to msnbc. before coming to nbc, he spent more than five years as a reporter with "national journal ." he is a free-lance reporter for "atlantic monthly," and "the washington journal." he's a 1996 graduate of the university of texas in austin. >> thank you for that very kind introduction. now to introduce the two stars for this panel. first we will start with a marker pen. -- mark penn. he is an adviser to corporate leaders like bill gates, bill forward. he was the political strategist for hillary clinton's political campaign in 2008. he is the co author of "micro trends," and he why it's a weekly column for the "wall street journal." we move on to caring use. she served as the undersecretary of state for public diplomacy in 2005 and 2007 and a counselor to george w. bush from 2001-2002. she returned to texas in 2002 but continued as an informal adviser to the president. she served as director of comm

is not with your marks -- your marks -- earmarks. senator murrayboat in vote after vote that we cannot pay for. during thousands of jobs. -- there are thousands of jobs that need to be filled. other things that senator murray stands for are union affairs. the boeing company does not want that. senator murray has quite a record when it comes to boeing. it is not a positive. >> center murray, you have money seconds. >> i talk to businesses all the time and they tell me what they need to have been ordered to be secure in our state to create jobs and grow our economy and help us give back on our feet. it is pretty simple. we need the infrastructure in place to allow them to bring this to their stores or sell their goods overseas and that means having a strong transportation system and away for their workers to get to work and a way to ship their goods to willing to go. businesses tell me they need a skilled work force. today, if you have a manufacturing company and you cannot hire somebody with welding skills or computer skills to be able to fill the j

mark feingold. knock out bennett. knock out boxer and murray. and only lose two. >> great job. 70% approval rating. if he were running for governor, he would win. it's the senate. >> you know why. because people are comfortable like in utah voting for democrats for governorship where they don't test the philosophy. >> is a race? >> it's culture. it's -- >> is it race? >> i think there's a racial element to it, yes. i don't think he's connected with those voters. they didn't do it in the primaries either. governor mansion ought to be in a much, much stronger, you cannot say this is about his personality. is anyone thinking he's going to have different politics in the senate? >> vote on national issues. >> sure. but i think there's a -- cultural shift there when it comes to national politics. >> this blumenthal race, incredible education and yet when we straighten out his war record, i don't why he didn't say i got caught up in this because people began to say i fought over there. i did not serve in vietnam. i should have never said i did. why doe

mark feingold. knock out bennett. take out the leader harry reid. knock out boxer and murray.and only lose two in that streak. >> very tough. >> very tough for the republicans. >> great job. 70% approval rating. if he were running for governor, he'd win it in a whoop. it's the senate. >> you know why. because people are comfortable like in utah voting for democrats for governorship which is an administrative job where they don't trust the philosophy. >> is a race? >> it's culture. >> is it cute is it race? >> i think a racial element to it. >> guns? i don't think that he's connected with those voters. he ever done. didn't do that in the primaries either. and governor mansion ought to be in a much, much stronger , you can't say that this is about his personality. and is anyone thinking that he'll have different politics if he's in the senate? something again about -- >> but no on national issues. >> sure. sure. but i think there's a -- cultural shift there when it comes to national politics. >> this blumenthal race, i've never understood. a guy with, obviously a big brain. incr

mark feingold. knock out bennett. take out the leader harry reid. knock out boxer and murray. and only lose two in that streak. >> very tough. >> very tough for the republicans. >> great job. 70% approval rating. if he were running for governor, he'd win it in a whoop. it's the senate. >> you know why. because people are comfortable like in utah voting for democrats for governorship which is an administrative job where they don't trust the philosophy. >> is a race? >> it's culture. >> is it cute is it race? >> i think a racial element to it. >> guns? i don't think that he's connected with those voters. he ever done. didn't do that in the primaries either. and governor mansion ought to be in a much, much strongeru can't say that this is about his personality. and is anyone thinking that he'll have different politics if he's in the senate? something again about -- >> but no on national issues. >> sure. sure. but i think there's a -- cultural shift there when it comes to national politics. >> this blumenthal race, i've never understood. a guy with, obviously a big brain. incredib

quality of the republican candidate mark kirk and the problems and difficulties in the democratic candidate alexis giannoulis. >> you picked washington state. patty murray and republican dino rossi. right now it is essentially tied in the polls or is it. in. >> if patty murray wins the seat there is no way the republican cassiopoeia take the senate. this will go down to the wire, both parties fighting tooth and nail for it. patty murray has been hanging in there. tough race but if she wins it there is no way that the republicans take the senate and that is why i think this is a key race to watch going down the wire. >> bret: turn to house races. joe, you chose pennsylvania 15, republican incumbent charlie dent against bethlehem mayor john callahan. >> he brought 5,000 new jobs to bethlehem in the middle of the mess we are going through when was the mayor and is the mayor. i think, look, this is simple. this is a republican incumbent who could go down and if that happens there are five or six of these races across the country. if that happens republicans don't have to win 39. they have to win 45 or 46 seats to take the house. an early one to watch and wa

republican candidate, mark kirk and the problems and the difficulties of the democratic candidate alexi giannoulias. >> bret: joe, you chose washington state, pitting patty murrayinst dino rossi. real clear has this tied in the polls. why this one? >> if patty murray wins this seat there is no way the republicans can take the senate. this will go down the wire. both parties fighting tooth and nail. patty is hanging in there. tough race. if she wins it, no way the republicans take the senate. it's a key race to watch going down the wire. >> bret: house races now. joe, you chose pennsylvania 15. republican incumbent charlie dent, against democrat john callahan. >> john callahan brought 5,000 new jobs to bethlehem in the middle of the mass when he was the mayor, and is the mayor. this is simple. this is a republican incumbent that could go down. there are five or six of these races. if it happens the republicans have to win 45, 46 seats to take the house, not 39. this is an early one to watch. if dent goes down it will be a much tougher road for republicans to take the house back. >> karl, you chose indiana 9, the congressional district there. the democrat barron

republican candidate, mark kirk, and the problems and difficulties of the democratic candidate, alexis giannoulias. >> you chose washington state, the senate race and it pits patty murraygainst republican nino rossi. and now, real clear has it essentially tied in the polls. why this one. >> look, i think if patty murray wins the seat there is no, in my view, no way the republicans can take the senate. it will be the one that goes down the wire, both parties fighting tooth and nail for it and mr. and if murray wins it, there is no way the republicans take the senate and it is a key race to watch. >> how races now, joe, you chose pennsylvania fifteen and charlie dent against bethlehem mayor john callaghan. >> john callaghan, brought 5,000 new jobs to bethlehem in the middle of the mess we are going through when he was the mayor and is the mayor. and i think, look, it is simple. this is a republican incumbent who could go down. and, if that happens, there are five or six of these races across the country, that happens, republicans don't have to win 39, they have to win 45, 46 seats to take the house. so, if you see it, it will be an early one to watch and watch it now and

mark dayton. all along the way addressing b rallies, seattle, washington, in support of patty murray the democratic. in one 24-hour period in california he raised $2.5 million for democratic candidates and for the democratic party, and yesterday a big rally for his close ally and ry endangered senate democratic leader, harry reid. of course he shepherded through harry reid with the health care bill and the stimulus package, all of the bills that are controversial and costing democrats votes elsewhere in the country, yesterday president obama paying back that allegiance byampaigning here in las vegas for reid. craig? >> mike viqueira on the road with the president this morning, thanks. appreciate that. >>> to hatie now, the cholera outbreak is spreading. nearly 200 people are now confirmed dead and authorities say more than 2,000 are sick in rural haiti. health officials fear the outbreak will spread to port-au-prince where thousands of quake victims are sll living in tents. >> the newest member of the boston celtics is on the bench, not on t hardwood. check that out, shaquille o'neal surprised stud