it's mark murray. when we look at the numbers here, we have new numbers from our nbc news poll here, and when we look at wisconsin as well as iowa, some interesting numbers here. obama ahead, but when we look at what the gallup numbers are, it gives romney a six-point lead. how do these two come together? >> richard, i think the polling is all over the place right now. i think that signals a very tight and competitive race, and sometimes when you actually see such a really close race that we're all expecting for november 6th, you're going to have polls in different directions. our polls actually suggest that president obama seems to have a firewall in those midwest states, and if he wins iowa, wisconsin and ohio, he surpasses 270 electoral votes. the romney campaign thinks they have a better standing in iowa which our polls suggest which could complicate that midwest firewall for president obama. 18 days ago, the nail-biter is just right. >> what about new hampshire? >> in new hampshire i think it's al

mark murray returns. plus, despite some criticism that governor romney came off as too aggressive during the last debate, team romney reportedly has no plains to rein in the nominee for monday's final showdown. [ woman ] ring. ring. progresso. i just finished a bowl of your new light chicken pot pie soup and it's so rich and creamy... is it really 100 calories? let me put you on webcan... ...lean roasted chicken... and a creamy broth mmm i can still see you. [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. >>> how some tea party lawmakers are distancing themselves from the tea party label they ran in in 2010. that's coming up. plus -- >> it's nice to finally relax and to wear what ann and i wear around the house. >> everyone, please take your seats. otherwise, clint eastwood will yell at them. >> that is just a look at some of the best lines of the night at the legendary al smith dinner. we'll have more. it's something we thought you should know. check out the tumblr page. you'll find behind the s

joining me now to make sense of all the new polls out there, mark murray. so mark, at 1:05 eastern time we got a new gallup tracking out. before we get into that, it seems one poll today that dominated the conversation is the pugh poll, but within the last hour there was a new reuters poll that came as well. >> we reached a very volatile part of the presidential contest right now coming right after that debate performances. we see polls all over the place. the prepondance of the surveys show a definite tightening of the race at the very least. it's interesting to get his first bounce of this general presidential election. he didn't get a bounce once he beat rick santorum for the republican nomination. he didn't get a bounce after he picked paul ryan or after the convention, but he is after this debate. so we are seeing a lot of movement right now, but i think the best gauge of where this race will be is when we move on a week or two from now where we see where all the dust settled after a volatile period in the numbers. >> i thought you were going to say whe

mark murray, thank you so much for waking up early for us. we appreciate it. >> thanks, lynn. >>> today marks one month since the deadly attack on the u.s. consulate in benghazi, libya. yesterday the white house again denied any intentional cover-up of what led to the assault and said the investigation continues. lawmakers demanded to know how lax security may have been and whether warning signs were ignored. steve handlesman is in washington. >> reporter: to highlight his concern, president obama had his terrorism adviser john brennan in libya to push the investigation of the 9/11/2012 attack that killed ambassador chris stevens and three others. but republicans at the house hearing charged the obama state department showed a lack of concern last summer after u.s. facilities in benghazi were attacked twice. >> i believe, personally, with more assets, more resources just meeting the minimum standards we could have and should have saved the life of ambassador stevens and the other people that were there. >> reporter: one of the witnesses agreed

joining me from washington is mark murray. mark, you have a lot of democrats cheering the fact they see a slight edge in the swing states despite the debate and other issues as well, and it is a slight firewall as we refer to it. >> tamron, it is still nail-biting time, however. there are two new national polls that came out today. first a "washington post"/abc news poll that had president obama up 49% to 46% over mitt romney among likely voters. there was a george washington poll that had closer, 49% for president obama and 48% for mitt romney among likely voters. that's the situation into the second presidential debate, the town hall format in hofstra in new york. >> the daily gallup tracking poll shows likely voter, obama 48% and romney 46%. i think it was friday, mark, you and i were talking about or thursday the numbers and polling. for analysts like yourself is where you expected the race to be at this time? >> right. in fact, we actually expected the race to be before we saw president obama with that very big surge he ha

mark murray will join us to talk about how both candidates fared. >>> a little bit later, the candidates often talk about main street. it is rare that they mention "sesame street." the online explosion in a response to a comment made by mitt romney. >>> right now, some morning rain hanging around just enough to slow you down. >> tom kierein out on the storm 4 team weather deck this morning. >> just enough rain for an umbrella. getting just a few sprinkles here at northwest right now. the air is thick with humidity. it stayed humid overnight from yesterday. as we take a look at the storm team 4 radar, right now we are getting these passing showers moving from the southwest toward the northeast. these will be with us here perhaps for another couple of hours. they're moving fairly quickly off to the north and east, and right now right around the metro area, we have those showers a little bit heavier to our south in charles county and in prince george's and it is certainly a muggy morning. 60s farther west at north. throughout the rest of the day today, we'll have some sunshine breaking out

mark murray, can't wait to see what the polls show us. talk to you about it tomorrow, i'm sure. > there are two senate debates tonight in races for them to win to gain control. in missouri senator claire mccastille facesed to akin. in virginia tim kaine is against george allen. to public second-guessing and private recripple nations at the finnish line are due to more than bad luck and a couple of underperforming candidates. the gop senate schal lengs more broadly are reflections of a party that can't be kroelded and can't produce good candidates and win strategies from the grassroots up. the virginia candidates are looking for a greatout moment and is the most expensive senate race in history. they remain deadlocked in the fifth sdpinl debate. joining me now is politico's david kantenese. talk about the mood or lack of optimism, if that's the fair way to describe it, within the realm party regarding their ability to get control of the senate. >> sure. if you asked operatives at the beginning of the year, they would have said they were above 50%. that's the chase to get the four

for more on what it means, let me bring back the senior political editor mark murray. n't know who wins this one until we hear that will little music and the winner of the race is declared on that big night, mark. >> tamron, two different campaign philosophies. mitt romney has gone big talking about the economy. when you look at our polling results, it shows that mitt romney has a slight advantage when it comes to who better handling the economy. president obama dominates on women's issues and abortions and who is better in supporting gay rights. they're playing more small ball and actually thinking all these different coalitions, women, mirnt minorities, young voters add up to a slim victory. >> the hot topic we talked about, when we brought up the issue of demographics, white men versus latinos, it sounds very harsh whenever you say something like that. we're, of course, talking about voter turnout in those two key groups for each of these candidates. >> it shows where each person has a very big lead. mitt romney is leading barack obama 60% to 34% among white men. tha

mark murray. can you sign it so i can auction it on ebay? just sign chris matthews. all right. with love, chris matthews. there you go. somebody's getting this. i'll run it back in the commercial break. coming up, our "news nation" panel ready to mix it up live in danville. michael still, eugene washington, christ cofenuns will join us. you can put in a bid for chris matthews notes. we'll be right back. humans -- even when we cross our t's and dot our i's, we still run into problems. namely, other humans. which is why, at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. see what else comes standard at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? boring. boring. [ jack ] after lauren broke up with me, i went to the citi private pass page and decided to be...not boring. that's how i met marilyn... giada... really good. yes! [ jack ] ...and alicia. ♪ this girl is on fire [ male announcer ] use any citi card to get the benefits of private pass. more concerts, more events, more experien

let's bring in mark murray. i want to talk about the gallup tracking poll.things i love about our audience is people who watch the shows are political junkies. they have gallup on speed dial, and they will call you out. that happened at the top of the show. we showed the gallup poll until october 6, 4 through 6 that showed the race 47%/47%. the latest poll that includes sunday has gone back to what it was prior to the debates. so for clarification, break it down so i can stop being beat to death by people on twitter about this gallup daily tracking poll. >> the one thing to know about the gallup daily tracking poll is it changes stimdz every day. what gallup did was before the three days before the debate, it was 50% to 45%, president obama among mitt romney. they measured the last three days since the debate, and it was a 47%/47% tie. the new numbers show president obama with a lead. it is very dizzying and probably better to get a better sense of all the different polls that came out rather than focus on the ups and downs of one poll. >> amen. that came ou

it's mark murray.ve new numbers from our nbc news poll here, and when we look at wisconsin as well as iowa, some interesting numbers here. obama ahead, but when we look at what the gallup numbers are, it gives romney a six-point lead. how do these two come together? >> richard, i think the polling is all over the place right now. i think that signals a very tight and competitive race, and sometimes when you actually see such a really close race that we're all expecting for november 6th, you're going to have

nbc news senior political editor mark murray joins us now with new analysis of last night's big debate. >> mark, instant polling and survey say they thought romney won the debate, and the president didn't help himself. do you agree with that? >> i pretty much do agree. look at the body lang raj from the campaign, obama was trying to do a little bit of cleanup. when you have to do that, you end up getting the better of the debate performance. i was surprised in a way that president obama's initial level was a bit down. mitt romney was concise. he was assertive. we had seen all those things during the republican primary season. i wasn't surprised about that, but was surprised president obama didn't have the energy level to meet it. >> we had mentioned the surveys that have come out. and most people who watched it seemed to think that romney won. steve handelsman showed us that headline. when does that translate, or does it translate in the polling? >> that's the great question. we haven't seen ygreat surveys. some folks believe this electorate is locked in there. then again, this could e

mark murray, you and i watched that ad yesterday with carmona. you don't see an ad like that not even every cycle. >> we know arizona is a competitive race. it wasn't two months ago, maybe not two weeks ago. joseph flake has to be worried to drop an ad like this. by far this is the toughest ad i've seen this cycle. >> susan, it does seem as if carmona, when you see this ad, not well known, it's a risky propition. you can go too far, could backfire, but could define him. >> he's got to respond. >> he did respond. >> it tells us who the voters who matter this year, it's women. >> no doubt. perry? >> yes. this has been a very interesting race. the ads we are seeing are much tougher in these houses than in the presidential race. >> do you think they need to break through and that's the issue? >> absolutely. you remember jim mussina was promising to be big at the presidential level. >> that's not happening. >> my son jethro turns 5 next week. love you. >> home state kentucky hosted a great debate yesterday. >> jason worth kept the nats in the playoffs

joining me now, nbc's senior political editor mark murray. of the screen, mark, we have race still tight, but dot dot dot and the but is these polls are starting to take some form. we know there are a lot of important things that can happen, a jobs report out, these debates, but we're seeing a theme in the swing states? >> we are. we're also seeing a theme, too, tamron, we've seen over the past five or six months now, that is that president obama has so many more paths to 270 electoral votes than mitt romney does. as you mentioned mitt romney pretty much has to run the table among all the battleground states to be able to hit 270 electoral votes. that's according to our nbc battleground map as well as others including the ap just showed there. that is a challenge for mitt romney. i'll add something else, our nbc/"wall street journal" mar rist poll sur vaied nine battlegrounds and president obama was ahead in all states from two points to seven points. that shows the hurdles that mitt romney has, even though the race is close. >> we talked abou

nbc news senior political editor mark murray will join us live later this morning to break down what the candidates needed to accomplish and whether they were successful. >> let's go to melissa live at the news4 news desk. >> we've just learned first lady michelle obama will travel to loudoun county this coming tuesday, october 9th for a campaign event. as soon as we get additional information on her visit, we'll pass that along. this highlights the importance of northern virginia in the race for the presidency. tomorrow, president obama will make a trip to fairfax county. he'll be speaking at george mason university. >>> right now, separate searches for missing teens, one in maryland. montgomery county police looking for this young man, 15-year-old derionte hebron, last seen at the wheaton community center monday around 2:00 in the afternoon. he's 5'8", about 110 pounds. his family says he likes to spend time at the glenmon shopping center. if you have any information on where he might be, please contact montgomery county plees. >> the second search is going ob on in fairfax county.

msnbc contributor managing editor of the "washington post" post politics and, of course, our own mark murray. deputy political editor. thank you both very much. >> sure. >> mark to you first, the nbc/marist poll, iowa and wisconsin, the top line and also the internals what are you seeing there in this firewall really, the midwest some. >> president obama has leads in iowa and wisconsin and by eight points in iowa, six points in wisconsin and if you basically say he's also ahead in ohio, basically winning those three states gets him beyond 270 electoral votes. that is the midwest firewall. i will tell you we got a lot of comments from the romney campaign who say look, we think the race in iowa is much, much closer. they're actually pointing to some of the internal numbers that show that the early voting is maybe a little overstating president obama's case, that so far about 19% of the ballots that are in our poll had 34% of likely voters saying they voted early. that matches up with the number of ballots requested. getting into the internals people are arguing i would just recommend everyone

joining me now, mark murray, nbc news political editor.answers the question t can make a big difference. one phrase. >> it did make a big difference when you looked a mitt romney. also worth noting his favorable, unfavorable rating still remains below water, where more people have a negative opinion of mitt romney than a positive one. when you look and the mir's ballot standing, he went from five-point deficit two weeks ago to a three-point deficit now. we are seeing some tight thing in the race the totality of the entire poll, whether it is that 47% comment or what people have actually seen and heard about mitt romney the past two weeks was a pretty negative outlook. >> as i understand it and you've noted i believe in first read today this new romney ad, i want to play tax direct answer perhaps to those people in the public concerned about that comment. let me play it. >> more americans live in poverty than when president obama took office. we should measure our compassion by how many of our fellow americans are able to get good-paying jo

. >>> nbc news senior political director mark murray joins me.ng to you. >> good morning. >> how important is the court decision that clears the way for the last three days of early voting in november? >> very important for the obama campaign in this ground game. they've actually used early voting as a way to be able to get all of their sure supporters in these states that already conducted early voting. so ohio is a state that's early voting. they started doing that on october 2nd. the battleground state of iowa is also an early voting state, and you've actually seen president obama, his campaign surrogates, when they campaign in these early voting states, urging people, one, to be able to register, make sure they're registered and also vote early. banking all the sure obama votes to concentrate on the swing voters and the undecideds closer to election day. >> yeah. earlier in the week, the pennsylvania judge ruling that voter i.d. rules, they can't be imment impleme implemented. how does that affect another key state? >> people were worried the

mark murray is nbc news' senior political editor.'ve been talking about these pock possibilities for a long time. if one of them does happen, what will happen? how will that be decided? >> first of all, we probably don't want that scenario to happen. otherwise, the election day that we'd all been thinking was going to pretty much end on november 6th maybe late in the morning on november 7th will be pushed back. we might not know for a very long time. here's what ends up happening. it actually goes to congress. the newly elected house of representatives actually gets to pick the president, and it's decided by state delegations. each state gets a vote. for example, california, which state delegation overwhelmingly leads democratic, they get one vote. they'd go for barack obama. texas, whose dell graegation overwhelmingly goes republican, it would go to mitt romney. who ends up getting 26 states or a majority then ends up breaking that tie. that is one of the outcoming you would end up having in a 269-269 tie. >> has this happened befor

senior political editor mark murray is up next with this hot topic. take a look.silver of the "new york times" 538 blog forecast, that's on november 6th. president obama has a 73% chance of winning re-election. the president with 295 electoral college votes and governor romney with 243. hello? boo! i am the ghost of meals past. when you don't use new pam, this is what you get. residue? i prefer food-based phantasm, food-tasm. poultry-geist works too if you used chicken. [ laughs ] resi-doodle-doo. [ female announcer ] bargain brand cooking spray can leave annoying residue. but new pam leaves up to 99% less residue. new pam helps you keep it off. we create easy to use, powerful trading tools for all. look at these streaming charts! they're totally customizable and they let you visualize what might happen next. that's genius! strategies, chains, positions. we put 'em all on one screen! could we make placing a trade any easier? mmmm...could we? open an account today and get a free 13-month e ibd™ subscription when you call 1-888-280-0157 now. optionsxpress by charles

anita dunn, former white house communications director for president obama and msnbc senior editor mark murray. we have one other person who was going to join us, governor uhrlach is caught in traffic. not everything is working so well. i want to start with this battle about the map. i have a feeling i know what anita's opinion is about this issue. >> i'm not going to shave my mustache. >> there is evidence to back up both and the romney campaign believes momentum. our own history has shown candidates, there are challengers, and the whole thing happens and the whole thing won't move. is that what we're seeing or is this a desperate attempt to what's going on? >> chuck, look at the poll numbers. there is serious tightening in these states, the lean democratic column for quite a while right now. but it is important to note that president obama actually leads still in all of them and, in fact, the margins we're often seeing look close to what john kerry carried those states in 2004 versus 2008. but overall this is something -- this is the recognition the power the super pacs are playing. the pro-

mark murray, nbc news senior political editor to answer these questions.you. >> good morning, alex. >> so let's take a closer look at these key states. we have first in florida the unemployment rate. that is 8.7%. ohio it's 7.0%. virginia, unemployment is 5.9%. so both ohio and virginia are down from august. florida is holding steady. does this then get interpreted as a win for president obama? >> it is a good potential story for president obama to tell at least in two of those states. we're talking about ohio and virginia, with the unemployment rate being at 7% in ohio, and in the fives in virginia and when you're close to five you're almost at full employment. so that is a very good story for president obama to tell, in addition to the national unemployment rate now being at 7.8% from a high of 10 percentage points. so he can tell that story. you're going to end up hearing the romney campaign, though, making their argument that they've been doing over the last several months that things could be much better with his policies. so, really, that's going to

mark murray joins us live from the site of tonight's debate.hear from the republicans i guess last week or so regarding a couple of polls they were not happy with, but specifically, mark, what's the issue with this "usa today"/gallup poll? >> there's a lot of criticism on all the polls from both sides. as you pointed out the national poll that we consider the gold standard came under criticism in this very tight contest. the obama cam taken took issue with one big thing. when you look at all the female voter, the split between obama and romney, they say they have a healthy lead, which that gallup poll showed there was a tie. in fact, our own nbc/"wall street journal" poll of maryland, ohio, virginia and florida shows president obama enjoys a double-digit lead with women. they wanted to correct the record. they thought that was a bad narrative that somehow president obama is tied with mitt romney when it comes to women. >> mark, we talked so much about the past few weeks and months about the importance of the female voters based on just the numb

joining us from washington is mark murray, senior political editor for nbc news. mark, good to see you. we might ask is this a clear shift in momentum? or is it a spike? >> there is definitely momentum on mitt romney's side. certainly since before the debate season. but i think we always knew this was going to be a very, very close election and the numbers reflect that what's more interesting is that right now you end up having republicans with the enthusiasm advantage. when you look at the total universe of registered voters, president obama has a five-point edge over president obama, 49% to 44%. when you narrow it down to likely voters it becomes tied. which shows you one that enthusiasm is on the republican side, but two, the more people who turn out, the potentially better it is for president obama and his chances. >> that's a shift, the enthusiasm gap and the enthusiasm shift. talk about when and what you found out in the poll and how women voters are looking at this? >> it's precisely the likely registered voter number is important to look at it when it comes

mark murray will join us later in the morning to break down what the candidates needed to accomplish and whether they were successful. >>> right now, though, some breaking news. >> good morning. turkey has renewed strikes on syria after an attack that left five people dead. we just got some video into the newsroom we can show you now. turkish artillery hit a border town striking several syrian soldiers. attacks started wednesday after a mortar bomb struck. turkey has no intention of declaring war on syria. >>> right now, two separate searches are under way in our region for two missing teenagers. 17-year-old brian glen was last seen on monday dropping off his brother at woodson high school in fairfax. this is a picture of him here. a short time later, his car was found at face park, about a mile and a half away. police and blood hounds are combing that area, but so far they've found nothing. inside the car was a receipt from a nearby dunkin' donuts. his father says that sun usual and leads him to believe something happened to his son. >> so all this to us is saying that he's still he

mark murray, thank you so much. our senior political editor. >>> it's a big question going into tonight's vice presidential debate. where does mitt romney stand on abortion some debbie wasserman schultz joins us live. and congressman paul ryan working it out ahead of tonight's showdown in danville. will he be a match for joe biden's mental muscle is more of the questions. a chat on how both are prepping in the final hours. >>> a fashion marketplace helps local boutiques that don't have their own e-commerce sites sell on line. she knows content sells, so she launched a companion online magazine. for more, watch your business sunday mornings at 7:30 on msnbc. so anyway, i've been to a lot of places. you know, i've helped a lot of people save a lot of money. but today...( sfx: loud noise of large metal object hitting the ground) things have been a little strange. (sfx: sound of piano smashing) roadrunner: meep meep. meep meep? (sfx: loud thud sound) what a strange place. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen p

joining me chris cizilla, managing editor of post politics.com and nbc political editor mark murray. rk, first to you, go through the numbers on the new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. others have shown tightening of the race. when you asked voters whether they are looking to these debates more than last time did. >> people are paying attention. four in ten saying this is going to matter, be important to their vote, although worth noting about six in ten of the people said this wasn't going to be all that important. when you dig inside the numbers it shows that key parts of president obama's coalition african-americans, latinos, are actually putting a high importance on the debates which actually kind of shows the challenge that mitt romney has to actually get his side as enthusiastic about it. >> a shrinking group of undecided voters, chris cizilla, what is the strategy of both sides to reach those people who are still undecided? >> you saw the clip you played with mitt romney in colorado, president obama on sunday night in las vegas, both basically what they both said is the me

mark murray, our senior political editor for nbc news joins me to help make sense of it. mark, what races, which states are key for the senate to change hands? >> well craig, you just pointed to the steep hill the republicans have to climb. essentially winning, picking up five senate seats, if democrats end up winning in massachusetts. as the polls sort of indicate. as well as having independent angus king winning in maine and caucusing with democrats. so if republicans need to pick up five. you can look at nebraska, you end up looking at a state like north dakota as well as you end up looking at montana, but then they need to win two of three of connecticut, of you end up virginia and so that actually looks at and they end up having to win wisconsin. that shows you that republicans have a pretty tough task. it's a doable task. but it is a very steep challenge. you know, it's very interesting because there are lots of folks who make the argument. a solid argument that had it not been for some of their own missteps, they would probably be in a better position, indiana, one

mark murray joining me on this sunday.d afternoon to you, sir. >> good afternoon, craig. >> that's a hard number for us to wrap our heads around. what is the president going to actually be able to do with the cash he has on hand in 30 days? >> he's going to be able to spend it on tv adds. and here's the challenge that the obama campaign knew they were confronting over the past year. it had to be all the outside republican money. the super pacs, 501 c 4s, flooding the airways and the haul of over $181 million, by the obama campaign and the dnc, it gives them the potential to almost go one-to-one parity against the romney campaign and all the republican outside groups. so this is all just about being able to be even on the tv ad wars with 30 days left in the presidential campaign. one thing worth noting on the billion dollar number, that's when you add the obama campaign and the dnc it comes to $946 million. that's how we're getting the billion figure. >> that's a staggering haul. that is an eye-popping total. paul ryan, he