mark zandi, moody's analytics i have to leave it there. i always appreciate you come on when we get this monthly report. thank you, sir. >>> still ahead we'll get team obama's take on the november jobs report from white house top economic adviser alan kruger. we'll have the first interview when he legally can do it. i'll explain that. it's back to the drawing board on capitol hill after efforts to extend the payroll tax break fall short. >>> plus, an exclusive first look at an interesting focus group. hear what actual voters are thinking about the republican presidential candidates. who do they call the black sheep of the family? and who do they call their favorite uncle? which candidates' morals get a favorable rating? >>> first a look ahead at the president's schedule. he's going to be with bill clinton in about an hour or two when he comments on those unemployment numbers. he's doing a tour. not even bothering going to maryland. usually it's a maryland trip for the monthly jobs report. he is sticking in d.c. touring the building and wil

mark zandi says that not extending the payroll tax at least to the 4.2% level would reduce 2012 real g.d.p. in a state like pennsylvania, by way of example, by .52 percentage points. so that means you're talking about gross domestic product or gross state product, in a state like pennsylvania, cutting that in half instead of -- instead of allowing it to grow. so this ha -- so this has a real adverse consequence for pennsylvania and the country if we don't do what we did last year. of course if we do more than we did last year, like i think we should and i think most people do, we could not only not fall behind, but we could move forward dramatically. here's another way to look at it: jobs. according to mark zandi, not extending the payroll tax cut will cost pennsylvania 19,700 payroll jobs in the year, calendar year 2012. for context, the state of pennsylvania last year, the job creation, the payroll tax job creation number -- payroll, i should say. payroll jobs added last year, 54,500. we've created in the last year in a state like pennsylvania, almost 55,000 jobs. but if we don't e

let's dig a little deeper with mark zandy. one reason as lisa says the unemployment rate dropped so much was because of these revised job numbers for the previous month. so let's take a closer look at these original numbers in august. they said 57,000. originally they said zero. that was revised to 57,000 up to 104,000. that is the latest estimate for august. september, 158,000. it's gone up to 210,000 in october. originally they said 80,000 new jobs. now 100,000 new jobs. is this normal for these significant increases to come forward a month, two, three later? >> well, we always have revisions. it is very encouraging that we're getting upward revisions. what that seems to suggest is that we're getting job growth at smaller businesses and establishments that are reporting late to the bureau of labor statistics, keeper of the data. as they get that information in, they revise the estimates and the upward revisions indicate some small business job growth which, you know, has been a missing link in the economic recovery. so it is

and mark zandi, john mark's former economic adviser, has said and have others, that the economy would being remarkably damaged and that we would really jeopardize the continued recovery if we don't pass this tax cut extension and the unemployment benefits extension. it's two months. we need to get it done so it doesn't happen to the middle class over the holidays. the republicans need to stop listening to the tea party what for the middle class. >> i guess the point was that it's scheduled to expire so they have it programmed into their system. but i hear you. in terms of the economic growth, most numbers out there, half a percent, obviously that's not something anybody wants to take and we can find ways to pay for this, but are you fully sold this being a make or break for the economy recession or not a recession just based upon this one tax? >> this is a critical component of the president's american jobs acts. one of the key things that he proposed was to extend the payroll tax cut for employees, add a payroll tax cut for employers which the republicans have refused to take up, mak

madam president, this is what mark zandi, the chief economist of moody analytics said." if policymakers do nothing here, if congress and the administration just sit on their hands and they do nothing, the odds are very high we'll go into recession early next year. we have a payroll tax holiday, all of us. we'd be in recession right now without it. if they don't extend that, at the very minimum, we'll likely go into recession." madam president, i hope very much that colleagues are listening. i hope very much that we are able to proceed to address this matter of extending the payroll tax cut and of extending unemployment insurance. i think i want to end as i began. if we had not had the government response in tarp and stimulus, zandi and blinder, two of the top economists in this country, one who is an advisor to the mccain campaign, one who is the deputy chairman of the federal reserve, have said we would be in a depression today, we would be in a depression today with 16% unemployment and eight million fewer people having jobs. we ought to pay close attention to that adv

mark zandi, one of the economists who we've -- both parties have quoted over many years, mark gloody of moody's estimates not extending the current payroll tax cut, meaning allowing the payroll tax to go back up to the 6.2%, not cutting it in half, if that happens he says it would reduce the gross domestic product -- gross desk product growth, i should say, by .5% in 2012. so instead of having growth, he's saying if we don't dmact and extend the payroll tax cut from last year at a minimum we would be losing a half a point of growth. that would be devastating to this economy. goldman sachs has said similar things. goldman sachs, they put the negative impact on g.d.p. growth as much as two-thirds of 1% in 2012. most the economists are in that -- in that range. in terms of the adverse impact. r.b.c. capital markets concludes the hit to g.d.p. neck year of failing to act would be -- next year of failing to act would be a full 1%. you have an economist saying half a percent adverse consequence, two-thirds maybe, but at least one among others saying a full percentage point. that would be d

mark zandi, top economist for john mccain's economy in '08, barclay's, others have said it, it will mean jobs lost if we don't do that. it will put money in middle class people's pockets to spend it. there's more demand for the products. it's simple capitalism. and the special interests people in the senate, in the house have neglected that economics lesson. >> jon kyl says he will only see that it gets extended if the bush tax cuts for the wealthiest americans get extended, too. >> in the end, this is not hard to analyze. as you know. in the end, it always comes back to protecting the wealthiest 1% in the country. you're going to have somebody on about occupy boston or occupy d.c. whatever people think about that, it's clear far too many people in the senate in the end wan to protect the 1%. the 1% does better when the 99% do well. from teddy roosevelt, through franklin roosevelt, through barack obama we know that. >> senator sherrod brown of ohio. thanks for coming in. >>> we celebrate an anniversary for mr. gingrich, whether he wants us to or not. that's the thing about the public rec

democrats want to do to extend the payroll tax cut for employees, most economists have said from mark zandi at moodys and jpmorgan has said, if you don't do these two things, maintain the unemployment insurance and extend the payroll tax cut, we will see the gross domestic product fall by 2% when we need it to grow. >> right. >> so the economics of this as well as the human element is incredibly important. >> and that's important because we're not saying this is not good economics. that is just good politics or even good morality. it happens to be all three. and we're hearing some very, i would say, unfounded claims by the other side. they say we must protect the job seekers. well, let me show you this. npr, when in search of the millionaire job creators that they are protecting, these gops keep talking about, we've got to protect the job creators. well, npr requested help from numerous republican on gregs nal offices including house and senate leadership and they were unable to produce a single millionaire job creator for us to interview. it's amazing. when you call a heb on it, they can't

let's go behind the numbers with mark zandy. let's look at the numbers, mark, 8.6 unemployment rate down from 9.0, that's good. 120,000 jobs net, added in november. the unemployment rate at the lowest point since march 2009. that has to make you smile. yet officially, more than 13 million americans still unemployed, 315,000 people flat out just stopped looking for work. and that's the troubling part, right? the rate goes down, not because jobs are being created but hundreds of thousands of americans gave up. >> well, john, there is good news. we did create jobs and the increase in employment helped to bring down the unemployment rate. you're right, one of the key reasons for the large decline in unemployment people did give up, the labor force did decline, that's not a positive sign. that's not encouraging. so there's good and bad in the report. net-net, i'll take it. unemployment rate is moving in right direction. >> one of the conversations we've had for months is are we at danger in falling into a double-dip recession. most pe

extending the payroll tax, and as we view it, increasing it in terms of the benefit to workers, mark zandiass said it could put us back into recession. we have a plan that puts on average $1500 in my home state of new jersey, $2,000 for the average family back in their pockets, create a demand for other goods and services, create other jobs, grow our economy, and get people back to work. you can't believe they're going to stand lockstep? opposition to that opportunity for middle-class tax cuts. >> senator, so we are clear, i want poem to understand what we are talking about, your bill would average $1500 in the pockets of about 168 million americans nationally, in different states it would be different. the ripple effect of that, because they'll spend money and it will go into the economy could be up to a million new jobs, and they're blocking this? or threatening to block it, or we expect they're going to block it? >> absolutely. that's what they're saying right now. instead of giving 168 million americans 9 opportunity to get up to $1500 more, and also would give a benefit to businesses.

mark zandi the man. he, too, a big believer in processed meats and cheeses. this holiday season.ss, you won't know about the processed meat and cheese things. what do they do? >> they got to demand it i'm confused, do i get the hickory farm basket or not get the hick torrey farms basket? do i an kel? i'm sd.

proposal relating to trying to stimulate job growth than this, and while there's some disagreement mark zandi, for example, has estimated that this can add a percentage point to gdp and add over a million jobs. and he's not the only one. so my guess is that, look, i think most republican ss -- i think -- will vote for it. >> i've read that literature as well, folks inoutside the hill who have made those estimates. but the chairman is telling me he didn't have a hearing on it because all he was doing was extending the policy that you created when you brought in the social security experts last year before implementing this policy. what did they it say this was going to do to the fundamentals of the social security trust fund? >> the answer is that the money will be paid to a social security fund to make up any difference. that's an obligation of this government. it will not undercut the social security fund. and those of you who have it talked about creating jobs haven't been able to come up with a single idea that would begin to possibly have the impact that continuing it this proposal will h

you need to extend both the payroll tax and the unemployment compensation because not do so, as mark zandi said, would throw us back into recession. amare prize says the extension of the payroll tax would create a million jobs. that's far more than giving a tax break to the millionaires and billionaires. >> senator blunt, just go ahead. i'm sure you want to talk about that. >> i don't know who the 11% are. congress is almost totally dysfunctional right now. all we've done this year and my first year in the senate -- i'm in the minority in the senate -- is barely keep the doors open. of course people are not satisfied with that. i do think the president's obligation to lead has not been met. his numbers are lower than any president in the history of the country at this point in his presidency. they're not nearly as low as the congress, but the congress as an institution will not be on the ballot next year. the president of the united states will be. >> senator blunt, let me ask you, the question of the tea party in congress, the tea party movement. a lot of controversy there and some people

. >> so mark zandy says this is his most optimistic chart.holds, households having trouble paying off their mortgages. what you're seeing is what economists call deleveraging beginning to play itself out 37 not totally. we've got a lot of debt in this country with a lot of people buried under bad loans, a lot of people underwater on their mortgages i don't want to minimize any of that but that giant rise has begun to finally moderate and that begins to suggest that if we could just get a couple months w0u9 some mass i6 crisis somewhere in the world something like the euro debt issue we're having right now there is room in the country at this point for recovery. see that right now. we're having pretty good growth in this quarter. might end up 3.5, 3.7. but next quarter might be back down to about 2%. >> ezra klein, always a pleasure. good to have you with us tonight. >> thank you. >> ron paul denies having anything to do with a series of newsletters containing racist statements. but two interviews paul gave over a decade ago say otherwise. dr.

mark zandi, a respected economist, did some analysis just on pennsylvania f. we didn't extend payroll tax cut, which as we know, has the potential to benefit 160 million american workers in my home state of pennsylvania. last year that meant more than 6.5 million workers had a cut in their payroll tax, a tremendous benefit for a state like pennsylvania. we grew in the last year about 50,000 jobs. that's the good news. the bad news could be if we didn't pass the payroll tax cut for pennsylvania -- for the country that would obviously have an impact on pennsylvania, the job loss number, according to mark zandi, would be just shy of 20,000 jobs lost in the state of pennsylvania in 2012 if we don't. if we don't pass another cut in the payroll tax. so it's vitally important for the commonwealth of pennsylvania. i think that applies for the nation as a whole. it is one of the steps. frankly maybe one of the few steps that the congress can take that will have a direct impact not just on the economy overall, but directly put dollars in people's pockets. take-home pay.

mark zandi, the previous republican presidential candidate, john mccain's economic advisor, said expend panding the tax cut can -- expanding the tax cut can create 250,000 jobs. 160 million americans is not enough for my colleagues on the other side. they want more enticement to support a payroll tax cut. what's the red meat that gets them to do this? well, partly -- and they have to break their pledge. they made a pledge to america. they said they wouldn't put extraneous legislation together with other legislation to pass a mass bill. it would circumvent the will of the american people. they promised to advance it one bill at a time. they stuffed environmental riders into a must-pass payroll tax cut bill. while helping millions of americans is something that republicans would support, the g.o.p. leadership felt they had to violate that pledge and cram divisive riders in the bill to get support of people who want to put a potentially dangerous and environmental sensitive areas of pipeline that has shown repeatedly, fair to be done in an appropriate way. something said would be a carbon

mark zandi of moody's analytics has said without the payroll tax cut for 2012 -- quote -- "we'll likely go into recession." congress should act quickly to expand tax relief and to remove the uncertainty for working families in this holiday season about whether their taxes will go up in the new year. more take-home pay to keep the economy growing, that's what we need right now and especially in the year ahead. so i'd encourage all of our colleagues here in the senate, as well as in the house, to pass this legislation to continue and to expand in a few moments, leon panetta on u.s.-israel relations. later, a forum on the future of pakistan. then gop president newt gingrich's news conference in new york city. a couple of live events to tell you about tomorrow on our companion network, c-span3. at 10:00 a.m. eastern, the senate judiciary subcommittee on the court will look at allowing television cameras in the supreme court. witnesses will include arlen specter and the chief judge of the third circuit court of appeals in philadelphia. at 2:30 p.m. eastern, the security -- witnesses will inc

mark zandi of moody's analytics has said without the payroll tax cut for 2012 -- quote -- "we'll likely go into recession." congress should act quickly to expand tax relief and to remove the uncertainty for working families in this holiday season about whether their taxes will go up in the new year. more take-home pay to keep the economy growing, that's what we need right now and especially in the year ahead. so i'd encourage all of our colleagues here in the senate, as well as in the house, to pass this legislation to continue and to expand a cut in the payroll tax. mr. president, i would yield the floor and note the absence of a quorum. the presiding officer: the clerk will call the roll. quorum call: mrs. gillibrand: mr. president? the presiding officer: the senator from new york. mrs. gillibrand: i ask that the vitiate the quorum call. the presiding officer: without objection. mrs. gillibrand: mr. president, i am proud to support caitlin halligan's nomination to the u.s. court of appeals for the d.c. circuit. caitlin halligan's impeccable career spans public and private practice sim

mark zandi did some analysis. he's a great economist who has provided data and information for people on both sides of the aisle for a long time. he's a very credible, capable economist. i asked -- our staff, i should say, asked him to look at the impact on pennsylvania, just one state and i think a big state reflective of the country in a lot of ways. the basic analysis was if you don't pass the payroll tax cut for workers, those 160 million workers, what happens to pennsylvania. here's the impact in 2012. a lost of -- a loss of almost, just shy of 20,000 jobs, just in pennsylvania. roughly 19,500 jobs. we know in 2011 already, the year is not over, the number of jobs added in pennsylvania was over 50,000 in 2011. i believe we can come to a number like that in 2012. if you don't pass a payroll tax cut for those 160 million workers, in a state like pennsylvania the effect is you lose 20,000 jobs. you just do the math and extrapolate from that to indicate what would happen to the country. so in a state where we had

according to the congressional budget office and senator john mccain's economic advisor, mark zandi, unemployment insurance is one of the most effective forms of economic stimulus, generating $1.64 for every $1 we invest in unemployment insurance. failure to extend unemployment benefits will reduce the gross domestic product by nearly 1%, and by reducing economic activity could put as many as one million americans out of work at a time we're trying to expand the economy. with respect to domestic clean energy production, renewing these incentives will sustain one of the few private sector success stories we've witnessed during the great recession. since 2007, the number of jobs in the work wind industry has grown 70%. so today there are as many wind energy jobs as there are in the coal industry. the number of solar industry jobs doubled since 2007 to more than 100,000 americans. this surge in domestic clean energy employment is a direct result of the 1603 treasury grant program to support clean energy activity. madam speaker, as we continue to debate these expiring tax benefit provisi

and all the economic figures show us, and the last thing i'll say here for this segment, zandi, mark zandi, for moody's, has classified every expenditure one can make that gives the economy more than $1 for every dollar expended and would you believe if one looks at things like unemployment insurance and payments to the unemployed, that produces the biggest bang to the economy. well over $1 ppt 35 for every $1 invested, as opposed to, let's say, tax credits or something like that, these arcane tax provisions, where less than 30 cents is actually reinvested in the economy system of unemployment insurance extensions also makes sense for economic growth at this very tender time because the people who receive those benefits spend them on essentials. they drive the economy. i yield to the gentlelady. ms. jackson lee: i want to put two more numbers on the record as you did. if we don't, you made a very valid point that here we are at the last minute, you would think that we would be sensitive enough to know that families are gathering, families want to have a holiday for the children, they're tr

mark zandi, from moody's, in an article from september 9 of 2011 entitled "an analysis of president obama's jobs plan," made that same point. you don't continue the payroll tax cut, and you have an adverse impact on economic growth. goldman sachs, global research, e.c.s. research had a similar conclusion. so this isn't just about individuals losing a payroll tax cut that's in place now. this is about harming in a very adverse way our economy's ability to grow in a substantial way. so, let me talk for a moment about the legislation before us. the middle-class tax cut act that i introduced. first of all -- the presiding officer: the senator's time has expired. mr. casey: let me ask consent for another five minutes. the presiding officer: is there objection? without objection. mr. casey: thank you very much. let me talk for a moment about the legislation. the legislation before us, as i said before, would both extend and expand the payroll tax cut that's in place right now. first of all, for employees, cut it in half. so instead of paying a 6.2% payroll tax, the employee, the worker, would pay

that came out of independent economies, not from those of us in administration when you look at mark zandind others that the job impact was much bigger than that. second, the youth employment program in the jobs act isn't just summer employment. there's a component to summer employment but there is a component for year-round employment and we raised the age to 24 because the difficulty that kids are having in finding jobs isn't just the dropout. we have kids who are finishing college who are having a difficult time making that initial connection. so, yes, that's why we have it year-round and we did raise the age limit so we could get more kids involved. but the president's jobs act was going to generate many more jobs. and independent economists have pointed this out. this was and still is the only engine running, the only proposal on the table to get jobs created. apprenticeships are great but apprenticeships are jobs and until we create jobs, as wonderful as that model is, we're not getting people into those. we are behind in getting our kids into the construction apprenticeships and get

allen blinder and mark zandi have said that every dollar we spend on growing the economy, the economy brings in $1.61. the economic policy institute has said that fail to extend benefits could result in the lost of $72 billion in economic activity for 2012. that translates to 560,000 jobs lost across the country if this activity -- or no are not gainef they are not extended. so this country cannot afford this hit. we cannot afford to miss the opportunity to maintain or create almost 500,000 johns. we cannot -- opportunity to main toin or create almost 500,000 jobs. we cannot ignore the fact that in this very critical budget situation, this is one of the most cost-effective ways to continue to stimulate demand and grow jobs in our country. and we also have to understand that we are dealing with a situation that is getting to be critical because we're running out of time. these benefits will expire at the end of the year and we must move forward. i think we can also do something else and that is to improve this program, and one way to improve it is to adopt a program that is very effect