so mark zandi, to you first. how has the broader economy been affected by all this?well, by my calculation, the shutdown and the brinksmanship over the debt limit shaved bay half a percentage point off g.d.p. growth. that's the value of all the things we producedded, in the fourth quarter of if th year. the recovery continues, we're still growing, but because of these events, we're going to grow a lot more slowly and we're still going to be very uncomfortable with the rate of growth we're getting. >> woodruff: beth ann bovino, what would you add to that to help people understand the effect on the economy overall? >> well, i think-- i'm a little bit more close, but a little more conservative on what i'm expecting. i'm looking for aue know, about .6% or $24 billion in terms of a loss from the government shutdown. there, though, i'd add that one of the reasons why i'm a bit more concerned is that because even though we've had the shutdown, again, the politicians have to come back to the bargaining table in just a few months, and what's that key? well, another shutdown o

your number is a little bigger than mark zandi. >> within the range of error we're the same number. we were looking for195,000. the unemployment rate w going to fall to 7.2%. the labor market was tightening but all this is before what blew up in washington this week. >> with what blew up the federal reserve is looking pretty good when they didn't begin tapetape. they figured the fiscal wrangling in washington would slow things down and they shouldn't pull back on their bond buying program. >> for economic reasons they shouldn't have tapered when they met. the job market is still not where they want it to be. inflation is below target and washington. the complaint wasn't about the economic but the fact they surprised the market instead of guiding the market. >> you're not so much concerned about the government shutdown as this debt iniling bumping up against that even though john boehner said this week, he would not allow the government to default on t the debt. >> well, that's great. fantastic. we got to sign on the bottom line and pass the piece of legislation increasing the debt l

so we're going to bring in mark zandi, the chief economist of moody's analytics. mark you just heard what john boehner said today. how does wall street take that comment? >> i think it's a big problem. the president says he's to the going to negotiate on the debt limit. the speaker says he is not going to raise the debt limit until the president negotiates. it is a game of chicken, with each passing day it will get more anxious for stock investor, bond investors. and if lawmakers don't get it together by october 17th it's going to be a collision, an economic collision that is going to wreck our economy. so this is a problem. >> jeff: if that collision 457s, what happens if the debt ceiling doesn't get raised? >> well, what it means is that the treasury can't pay all its bills and can't make payments on the nation's debt. that means that at some point social security recipients won't get a check, medicare, medicaid providers aren't going pedestrian paid, military personnel may not get their money on time and investors will wonder if the treasury is going to make pay

mark zandi, do you first, is there an affect on the economy? we're only in the second day of this. >> yeah. federal employees aren't going to work. i was in d.c. today talking to a taxicab driver who said he had to work 14 hours yesterday and couldn't get the money he normally gets. tourist destinations are being affected. independence hall in philadelphia, my hometown, is shut down and that's affecting people. pretty soon it's going to be tougher to get an f.h.a. mortgage loan, a small business administration loan for a small business, student loans. it's more of a nuisance so far, but it's starting to have economic consequence. >> woodruff: diane swonk, who are you seeing in terms of impact so far? >> i agree mark. there's the near-term impact that's more of an inconvenience but is certainly still a cost to the economy. but as the shutdown gets longer the costs of it tend to compound over time. they get more into the private sector, more spillover effects. we also don't know for sure whether or not these federal employees who are furloughed--

steve liesman, mark zandi. steve, anything else that jumps out at you? broad based. there's only a couple of negatives, financial activities and leisure and phospitality an government up 22,000 after being up 32,000. >> is that state and local? >> i don't know. i have a top line government number. >> the revisions were not worse. >> took away in july. >> i'd think this is maybe -- you're saying it below expectations but maybe it's not as bad as people thought. the market's reaction was to go up. qe's here to stay. >> you're going to get your qe and jobs too. >> we want some jobs, i think. >> and it's not as bad -- no, i know but the market, these people -- these warped people in the market. >> i'll tell you one thing i don't like is the earnings. what was earnings? >> average -- >> i think on a real basis, mark, that's going to come down to negative. right if you take away. >> what did hours worked do? >> average weekly hours? >> yeah. >> 33.7, unchanged. >> labor force participation still 63.2%. >> right. >> is that good or bad news? we'd like to see th

joining me right now, mark zandi, chief economist at moody analytics and j.p. morgan. we had no jobs number this week, mark. >> bummer. >> it was tough. >> we're at a point where you might be able to guess what the number may have been. what type of job growth do you see? >> still between 150,000 and 200,000 per month, that's kind of the job growth we've been getting the past three months, six months, really the past three years. i don't think it changed in september. i think we're still somewhere in that range. >> david kelly, you guys are trying to guess as well, your number is a little bigger than mark zandi's right? >> within the range of error we're base he canalically the s were look for 190,000. we thought it would fall to 7.2%, there's a real problem with labor force participation in the country so the labor market was tightening but all before with what blew up am what happened. >> the federal reserve is looking good right now when they didn't begin tapering, right, mark? >> they figured the fiscal wrangling would slow things down enough they shouldn't pull bac

so to talk about what that all means we're joined by mark zandi, chief economist of moody's analytic. mark, let me just ask you the basic question-- how much was the economy hurt by this shutdown? >> it was hurt. by my calculation, it cost us about $24 billion in g.d.p., that's the value of all the sthingz we produce. so just to put that into context-- that shaves about a half a percentage point from growth in the fourth quarter, and i expected the economy to pick up pace but now i think it's unlikely. we're stuck in a slow-growth lackluster kind of environment. >> schieffer: i guess that lead to my second guess, does the reopening now, will it bring money back in somehow? could it be recovered during the holidays? >> we'll get a lot of it back. the shutdown was disruptive to lots of different parts of the economy, to trade, to mortgage lending, to and obviously tourist destinations. a lot of that will come back. i think prevading the entire economy is this uncertainty which i think the effects of that are corrosive have been accumulating and obviously given the nature of the deal tha

economist mark zandi warns it will push us "back into recession." bank of america warns of another credit rating downgrade. stocks have been falling for over a week. wall street hears the warnings... does washington? i'm alison kosik in new york. it's believed a career criminal who terrorized businesses across anne arundel county for the past ten months is now behind bars.. and he could be responsible for more. police say dave holland is responsible for a dozen smash and grabs. they say holland, would strike between 11 p-m and 3 a- m...masked with a bandana, wearing the same clothing. this is surveillance video of his final smash and grab in deale, maryland. while fleeing a burglary there ...his vehicle was stopped and police found a tire iron in his car. "i hope he turns his life around and don't take things that aren't yours" before this, police say he burglarized a barber shop, a ritas, starbucks, jimmy johns and many other busineses in anne arundel county. pioneering a pilot project... maryland and social networking site, facebook, are teaming u

we have drew mattis, mark zandi, we're spoiled. we will not take -- >> an embarrass the ment of ric. >> we won't take no for an answer. >> hell no, we won't go. >> exactly. it's jobs friday, damn. >>> to i have to say this? twitter tweeting and hash tagging -- they're weird.o i ha? twitter tweeting and hash tagging -- they're weird.do i h? twitter tweeting and hash tagging -- they're weird. >> have you ever heard hash tagging before? >> is that the number sound? i never know what i'm doing with that. i think whenever i'm going to say something sar takes tick or -- >> you just say hash tag punch line. >> but no one ever looks it up. you're just doing it for your open -- right? >> that's true. and it never trends. >> but twitter is trending? is it? >> it is trending. twitter ipo was trending as of last night. i want to thank the government to not having a jobs number so we can talk more about the twitter iipo this morning. xr. >> couldn't the president ignore the republicans better fr? if he's not going to talk or negotiate, he shoul

mark zandi is out saying that right now about this -- >> that could happen.-- meliss but they threatened about all the other things. with the fiscal cliff they said the same thing. >> they did. if you and i walked out on the street and asked 25 people if they thought the recession really ended, i bet 18 said it never really ended >> that is not the same thing as sending us back into a deep recession. >> my pot is -- melissa: go ahead. >> to a large extent things happened last five years are still with us and we've not dug our way out of them. when we talk about recessn we're talking about a technical academic thing. when you talk about what is really going on in the economy the things that happened five years, things that happened over the past few years, in europe, in here, in the united states, those things have had an effect. they continue to have an effect. melissa: they have an effect, they're a drag without question. charles, you know what i'm talking about here. ey're saying it is going to be, you know, markets are going to tank. if you look where the

and again, mark zandi, the dark scenario is so dark, i can't imagine it. that's what he said. so we pray now as our leadership goes over to the white house -- and they are probably right there now meeting with the president -- that they come out of that meeting with a plan, a plan to pay our bills, a plan to reopen government and a plan to negotiate on anything republicans and democrats want to negotiate on. i pray so that this works out, but until it does, i'm going to be here every day making the record for future senators and for the history books that this kind of a weapon, shutting down the government and threatening default, that those kinds of weapons should be banned. it's our job to pay the bills, it's our job to keep the government open, just like it's a pilot's job to fly the plane. he's got to show up and fly it. we have got to show up, pay the bills, keep the government open, and then negotiate our differences. thank you so much, mr. president. i yield the floor. a senator: mr. president? the presiding officer: the senator from maryland. mr. cardin: once again, i

about it with david leonhardt of the "new york times," david wessel of the "wall street journal," mark zandi of maddy's analytics and roger altman of evercore. >> the chairman of the federal reserve, i think we should celebrate that. it gives us a chance to step back and look at her record. i doubt anyone's ever come into this position that's more qualified by virtue of her existing service within the fed, twice by the way not just currently. her stint is cea chair under president clinton, her academic history, she's extraordinarily qualified. >> rose: we continue with christina romer former chair of the provide's council of economic advisor and a professor at berkley. >> what's always impressed me about janet is she doesn't just stick to one idea, she's always saying am i missing something, is there some other idea that might be right here, is there more research we need to do. and i think in these kind of times when monetary policy is much more complicated and changing so rapidly, that kind of flexibility and watching the data and watching the new research as it comes through i think will

we'll get analysis from mark zandi of moody's analytic. stuart rothenberg of the "rothenberg political report." gerald seib of the "wall street journal," and michael gerson of the "washington post." the government is back in business, and compg it all is our business because this is "face the nation." captioning sponsored by cbs from cbs news in washington, "face the nation" with bob schieffer. >> schieffer: and good morning again. we welcome to the broadcast the senate republican leader mitch mcconnell. senator mcconnell, jim baker, the former secretary of state who led five republican presidential campaigns, described this recent brawl over trying to tie the defunding of obamaed care to shutting down the u.s. government, he described it by recalling the words of a long-ago candidate who lost a senate race in texas who said, "we shot ourselves in the foot, and then reloaded." will you ever let something like this happen again jew know, one of my favorite old kentucky sayings is there's no education in the second kick of the mule. the firs

volcker or up with of my colleagues' favorite economists, mark zandy. it's the words of mr. frank, whose name is on the bill who supported this exact same initiative in the last congress. there's plenty to disagree about. why we continue to fight about things that pass out of committee 53-6, will pass on the floor today by an overwhelming margin, i have no idea but there are some things we an -- we can agree on and this is one of them. i urge support of the bill. the speaker pro tempore: the gentlelady from california. ms. waters: i'd like to read the statement from ms. sheila bayer who formerly chaired fdic. she said, derivatives have many legitimate functions but they can be high risk and poorly understood because of their complexity by bank managers and regulators as we saw with the london well debacle. so keeping them outside of banks is the way to go this will increase market discipline and protect the fdic. she said, i'm concerned that members of congress act on these issues without full understanding of the ramifications. if we are going to ve it -- revisit derivative

announcing feel free time to find him but it's going to be a long awaited burbridge match with mark zandi these december while the greek fifteen time world champion will be looking to settle the score of the losing by t.k.o. last time around leaving the fans looking ahead to another big fight tonight of top action mikel archos r.t. moscow. russia's olympic and paralympic stars have been competing in sochi to secure their call ups for the fast approaching world cup season ahead of the country's first winter games while the cup holder alexanders a profit stay at his form on bobsled to domestic glory as the thirty nine year old came to victory at the pre-season russian cup making up for finishing runner up in the two man discipline the veteran is aiming for his maiden limpid gold in sochi after a silver in cheer in bronze in vancouver wa the frankie sliding center also hosted the skeleton cup where reigning world champion alexander project off donated the men's event and european champion elena mickey to not tops the time sheets on the women's side admitted she could have done even better. b

moody's chief economist, mark zandi, testified before the senate a few weeks ago that a shutdown lasting just a few days would cost the economy approximately .2% of g.d.p. and a longer shutdown could cost as much as 1.4%. the u.s. chamber of commerce has called on gressio congress to ke government opening, stating -- and i quote -- "it is not in the best interest of the american community or the u.s. people to risk even a disruptive shutdown that mike trigger disruptive consequences or uncertainties washing over the u.s. economy." this shutdown is painful for our constituents and it is damaging the economy. and everyone should understand, this is costing -- costing the government money. some people may think, well, at least is the government is shut down, we're saving money. but actually, the very opposite is the case. recently in "the new york times," a -- they had an editorial that detailed some of the reasons that shutdowns end up being very expensive. a shutdown government can't collect fines and fees, contractors building and the cost of the shutdown and the added probability to fur

mark zandi over at moody and goldman sachs, about .5%.substantial when you only have about 2.5% growth. action economists, a little more conservative, 0.3%. rdq and jpm, 0 to a few tenths. here is what mark zandi said, a shutdown lasting through the end of october would by itself reduce real growth as much as 1.5% in the first quarter. an interruption longer than one month would likely cause growth to stall in the quarter. bruce writing me last week, the big uncertainty is the collateral damage around the crisis. we will look at the day that that won't be reported. economists warn that these are small changes compared to breaching the debt. government spending has to decline sharply. some economists see a severe recession. kelly, mark zandi calls it cataclysmic if we get there. several economists pointing out that salaries not paid in the fourth quarter, you might get a bump back in the first quarter when they are paid. >> we have a sense already of the damage done to you. gold moving in concert with the situation in washington. today, we

that shocked economists like mark zandy who thought we were going to see a rise in part-time work because of obama care. >> earlier in the year, look at gdp, looking at job creation around that 15 point threshold. it felt like the trend was toward part-time ememployment. >> the president's health care law is not leading to increased part-time work. >> i expected it, i really have. i just haven't seen it. >> the los angeles times today says today's job numbers pushed the law into the popular conservative name that became care has -- government numbers actually shows that the fraction of part time workers in the work force has declined since 2010. and a closer look at the data provides little evidence for the notion that the health law is driving a shift in part time work. get the zombie -- obama care has become the easy scapegoat for people to blame for things that were already happening in the economy. >> how can you say obama care isn't in part to blame for more part-timers? >> we say -- we look at the data. when we hear anecdotes, we respond to that. but when you look at the agate data,

. >> by the way, mark zandy at moody's said on food stamps more people getting them now than ever. puts money back in the economy. for every dollar in food stamps $1.73 goes back in the economy because they spend the the money immediately. even people with unemployment spend the money immediately and it's been good for the economy. >> david? the whole crew was laughing. >> glad i could make you laugh. >> thanks for the humor. >> glad to entertain. >> this is the most ridiculous principle that if you take money from somewhere else and they spend money you are creating wealth. >> you are. >> let's put aside economic algebra. this is part of the problem. we have a fund membership tall shift in this country. we can debate the politics. whose fault and whatever ad nauseamment with t 90,000 adults out of the work force wand a system that requires tax dollars to support it and $3.7 trillion it's not sustainable for a long time. i want to fix welfare, means test it, get rid of fraud and waste. the president in june of 2011 talks about how the welfare culture creates dependency. his words,

we'll have mark zandy joining us to discuss what investors can expect going forward.would know as the guy that put together adp. and in the next hour, steve israel joins us. >>> during the government shutdown, a flood of data was postponed, including the september jobs report. so what can the markets expect now that the government is open for business? joining us now is mark zandi. i don't know the answer to this, when do we get the numbers? >> not sure. >> do they dump them on us? >> i need that data. but i haven't heard. >> today is the day everyone's officially back in business. >> at the very least, we'll get the september jobs data, right? >> all that does is tell you what happened before -- >> true. absolutely. i'll take anything at this point. . we've been getting private sector data that's not too bad. it's helpful. some of the data from the realtors and the national retail federation, the adp numbers. >> what does adp tell you? i think that'll be the best indicator of what's happening in the jobs market. >> of course we'll only have the september data, we won

>> look, this is mark zandi and his forecasting. >> no, it is not just mark zandi. the u.s. lawmakers and said please, please, do not shut down the government because you're going to affect the economy. this is the u.s. chamber, a republican-leading group. >> the last time we had a government shutdown, the stock market was fine, the economy was fine, and, look, i'll put it to you this way. if it is true that the actions of 535 people in congress are that critical to the economy, i think we should be second guessing whether or not we want to put such power in the hands of human beings because i can tell you, having worked in the senate, there is no wizard behind the curtain there. >> so i'm getting the drift that you believe no government is the best government and who cares what they do. >> i think we need a smaller federal government. i think the american people who are rightfully upset in looking at the circus-like atmosphere we have now should be questioning should we have so much power placed in the hands of these men and women. i think today is another example that it s

. >> mark zandi, appreciate it very much. >> thank you. >>> cyber thieves are always on the prowl.ey're likely to try to crack, that massive database of personal information collected by obama care health exchanges. so how secure are the websites? we'll have an explanation when we come back. ♪ [ male announcer ] when we built the cadillac ats from the ground up to be the world's best sport sedan... ♪ ...people noticed. ♪ the cadillac ats -- 2013 north american car of the year. lease this cadillac ats for around $299 per month with premium care maintenance included. hearty cheeseburger. creamy thai style chicken with rice. mexican-style chicken tortilla. if you think campbell's 26 new soups sound good, imagine how they taste. m'm! m'm! good! >>> over the next few months, lots and lots of americans are expected to enroll in insurance plans under obama care. that's going to create a massive database of personal information that will include social security numbers, and health information. zain asher is joining us from new york. wrouv rr been taking a closer look at this. how secure ar

now i believe that you put this idea to the economist, the great mark zandi. what was his response?ided not to take on what sarah palin said directly, but to say the big point here -- forget about what sarah palin says. if we default, and it's not resolved by the beginning of november, we're in a recession. but more importantly, if we default, and it's not resolved until into november, towards the end of november, there will be a worldwide economic down turn that could last for years, if not decades. now, this is a guy who is one -- not the only, but one of many economic advisers to the mccain/palin campaign back in 2008. and so -- but you've got people in the tea party out there who keep saying, we can default, this is not a big deal. this is just scaremongering on the part of the president. and they're -- you know, they're really playing a very fast and loose game with this nation's future. and, again, it's -- you know, this is like a short and compressed version with climate change denial. you know, you just don't care about the facts. and you are willing to take these risks, lar

mark zandi joins us from moody's analytic and here in new york, roger altman chairman of evercore partners and served as deputy of the treasury under president clinton. i'm pleased to have all of them here to talk about the selection of janet yellen and what it means for fed policy. welcome. mark i begin with you. tell me about what she might be like and how she might be different from ben bernanke. >> well i think she'll be fantastic. i think key to the fed gracefully exiting out of its quantitating policy and normalizing interest rates, the ability to communicate clearly to the marketplace. and that's what she's been working on at the fed. she's been working really hard on communication strategy and key to communication is building consensus. you need to have the consensus view around the committee. and i don't think there's anyone better than her at doing that so i think she's going to be very good fed chairman and transition very nicely away from the bernanke fed. so i think we're in good hands. i think we'll be in georgia shape. >> rose: transition away means what? >> well, it should

i'm joined by mark zandi, chief economist of moody's analytics.raise the debt ceiling through november 22nd but what happens on wall street if a new deal can't be reached by then? >> well, it's a good question. certainly the angst created by all the uncertainty between now and then means i think it will be tough sledding for the market. had a great day today but i think there will be a lot of ups and downs in the market over the next few days, few weeks until they nail this down concretely. >> alison mentioned the market reacted well today even though there was some bad news, as we are starting to see the results of the government shutdown, not just the added people who are not getting paid but the residual effects, and i'm wondering if the government continues to stay shut down, as seems to be the current republican plan in the house, will that sway how investors react to even a short term debt ceiling deal? >> yeah, eventually. depends how long the government is shut down. by my calculations, the damage to the economy to date is about a half a p

they already have hurt the economy, and these squabbles the last couple of years, like mark zandi frome of other places have said at least 800,000 to a million jobs have been lost over the past three years because of the uncertainty in the budget squabbles here. >> let the record reflect, you're pointing to members of congress, not to these young men and women -- >> not to you. >> they're good, they're sweet. >> christine romans, thank you so much. we appreciate and it congratulations on the new gig. >> thanks. >>> coming up next on "the lead," welfare checks stopped in one state and the government shutdown is blamed. are state officials playing politics with vulnerable kids or is it the shutdown? >>> plus, a story we've heard before. a night in underage drinking ends in accusations of rape. a victim shunned for speaking up and charges dropped against two football charges. but now nearly two years later, could the case get a second look? mine was earned orbiting the moon in 1971. afghanistan in 2009. on the u.s.s. saratoga in 1982. [ male announcer ] once it's earned, usaa auto insuran