host: this is mark zandi joining us from moody's. our first call comes from baltimore. this is michelle, the democrat'' line. caller: hello, thank you for c-span and addressing the issue that we are living on borrowed money. the economy is not doing as well as they try to portray it to be. my question is about the tax cuts. i am 58 and this is the first time i will have to pay taxes. i have always gotten a refund because they take out extra. because i live in maryland and i cannot claim the full amount of my state collapse -- taxes and interest. i am actually having to pay taxes for the first time in my life, even though i have them take out additional taxes. i want to ask you about the real cutst of the so-called tax on the middle class, and about the tariffs. how do you think we are doing? because we are borrowing money to pay for the tariffs, so i would like to get your thoughts about that. guest: you make a good point about the tax cuts. the benefit is uneven, clearly the bulk and the benefits went partlks in the top -- top of the income distribution. people with hi

mark zandi joins the panel.s for joining us mark parham stocks the punches got most the headlines this week, but tells was going on the bond market? >> well, their record lows. ten-year treasury are closing in on 1%, officer reflecting the panic and the bad news and prospects for global recession. so rates are falling. not falling is much as corporate bond yields because her concerns about the credit quality of the companies. so we are seeing spreads at wyden for high-yield debt and other corporate debt. mortgage rates are falling, they are more tied to long-term interest rates as you pointed out 30 year fixed-rate mortgage rates are now pretty close to record lows. if there's any good news and what's going on here, it's for homeowners and folks who are looking to refinance their mortgage. this a bigger time to do it. jack: want to ask about that but quickly due to the falling yield is worse to come? >> i think it signaling recession. i think we're going to have a global recession. if the cdc is right, and the v

the new proposal would establish a points system with mark zandi don't be some english language proficiency skills qualifications current salaries and professions. only applicants with enough points would be granted a coveted u.k. work permit however many u.k. industries such as health care rely on overseas workers to do the heavy lifting and warned they could face libor shortages should the proposal be adopted it says if the very thing that the level of your salary the term move how valuable your worry is and what skills you have but we know that there are people in the relatively low paid occupations like social class who are skilled and. and then you 1st make keep these people out johnson's new immigration scheme still needs parliamentary approval but with a wide conservative majority approval is all but guaranteed. telecom has reported record profits for 2019 of 3900000000 euros making last year the most successful in its history mostly it has its u.s. market to thank subsidiary team obama attracted millions of new customers a takeover of team of our competitors sprint also recently rec

. >>> mark zandi is with me right now. mark, thank you for being here. you to not believe this is just about people posturing in politics. what do you think is fueling what we're seeing? >> i think the markets investors are discounting the possibility of global recession. i think if the buyer is concerned in a similar way similar to what the cdc is suggesting will happen, that disruptions will be so significant and severe that we will suffer an economic downturn. that's what investors sense and fear and that's why they're selling stocks. >> i want to step sideways into my natural skepticism into this. you like volatility. you often trade on fear. it gives you a chance to create action on what is a stre sophisticated form of bet making that you make in the market. isn't that part of this as well. >> who's we? are you talking about me? no, i don't trade in the market. >> no, i'm saying people on the market that trade. you can except yourself. talk about the rest of them. >> no, i don't think that's what this is about. you don't see a decline like we have s

mark zandi joins the panel.parham stocks the punches got most the headlines this week, but tells was going on the bond market? >> well, their record lows. ten-year treasury are closing in on 1%, officer reflecting the panic and the bad news and prospects for global recession. so rates are falling. not falling is much as corporate bond yields because her concerns about the credit quality of the companies. so we are seeing spreads at wyden for high-yield debt and other corporate debt. mortgage rates are falling, they are more tied to long-term interest rates as you pointed out 30 year fixed-rate mortgage rates are now pretty close to record lows. if there's any good news and what's going on here, it's for homeowners and folks who are looking to refinance their mortgage. this a bigger time to do it. jack: want to ask about that but quickly due to the falling yield is worse to come? >> i think it signaling recession. i think we're going to have a global recession. if the cdc is right, and the virus shows up here in

right now the dow jones industrial average down 146 points, so mark zandy is with us, chief economist for moodies analytics. talk to me. as we're reporting the president has been down playing this because he's worried about, according to folks we know in the white house, he's worried about folks panic ing and the markets tanking even further. i'm just wondering, is that appropriate, joyou know, down playing it for the sake of the markets? what do you think about that? >> i don't think it makes sense. i think it's important to be honest and transparent. if he's not, the american people are going to figure that out pretty quickly and that's just going to create a lack of confidence. and you know, the fact that he can't get on the same page with the cdc, and by the way, the cdc seems to be where we should be paying attention. >> cdc and nih. >> exactly. that doesn't lend confidence either. >> you made news this week saying all of this raises the probability of a recession from 20% to 40% because of this coronavirus outbreak. why do you say that and what would the conditions need to be? >

. >> are you familiar with the economist, mark zandi? >> i am. >> would you characterize him as a conservative economist? >> not really. >> did he advise democrats or republicans? john mccain, generally viewed as a credible conservative economist. he had said that the tax cuts of 2017 for every dollar you give away, you can hope to reclaim $0.32. that's a 68% loss on investment. so tax cuts don't pay for themselves. and because tax cuts don't pay for themselves, we went from an annual budget deficit of $600 billion to more than a trillion dollars. and it's projected that we will take in $1 trillion less than we spend for this year and the outyears moving forward. under -- because tax cuts don't pay for themselves, in the 36 months of this presidency, there's an increase in $3 trillion to the national debt. that's because tax cuts don't pay for themselves. because tax cuts don't pay for themselves, you have a medicare cut of $756 billion over ten years. you have a social security cut of $24 billion. you have a medicaid cut of $920 billion

host: mark zandi is the chief economist for moody analytics. thank you for your time.any time. host: we will finish out our program asking for your thoughts on yesterday's senate votes and the acquitting of the president. here's how you can call us. republicans, 202-748-8001. democrats, 202-748-8000. .ndependents, 202-748-8002 you can text us at 202-748-8003. it was earlier this morning, the president addressing the national prayer breakfast used the occasion to talk about the impeachment vote. [video clip] >> my family, my great country, and your president have been put through a terrible ordeal by some very dishonest and corrupt people. they have done everything and, by to destroy us, so doing, badly hurt our nation. they know what they are doing is wrong, what they put themselves far ahead of our great country. weeks ago, and again yesterday, courageous republican politicians and leaders had the wisdom, fortitude, and strength to do what everyone knows was right. i do not like people who use forr faith as justification doing what they know is wrong. nor do i like pe

mark zandi of moody's analytics said it is the president's to lose this election.istory is on the president's side i think since george washington. 19 incumbent presidents have won re-election versus 10 who lost. they have won during really strong economies. your reaction? >> that is absolutely right. you look at bush 41, the fact that he lost, it was because of the economy and bill clinton beat him in the economy was the issue. but i absolutely agree the economy is doing so well. people will vote the pocketbook. they see this president can manage an economy. the democrats cannot even manage a caucus. so the contrast between this president and the team he surrounded himself with is going to bring him to victory. liz: you're looking live shots. the president has just landed in manchester-boston airport. that is live picture on the screen right now. "the new york times" put up this story, quote, wages in the united states are doing something extraordinary. they're growing faster at the bottom than at the top. recent growth for workers with low wages outpaced for high

mark zandi, the independent economist told me today, the odds of that now are 50/50. >> yikes. a lot needs to happen, but a lot of things are happening quickly. that's the whole thing about this whole situation. joining me to talk about this, dr. arborio for the national security council during the trump administration. also a former official with the food and drug administration and joining us dr. lena wen of baltimore and visiting professor at gw school of public health. thank you for being here. we have a million questions. we want to get to some viewer questions if we have time, which i hope we do. you have been talking about how public health officials have needed to be prepared for a wider outbreak. what is your big take than from this new case out of california? >> good morning. this case in california, we have been expecting this to happen for the last few weeks, given the features of this virus. it is highly transmissible, it presents very similarly to other infectious diseases that affect the respiratory tract. so we always believe that we -- if we're looking for the

appointee with 0 relevant experience, abruptly sees responsibility for withholding the aid from mark zandi. a career office of management and budget official. sees the responsibility from a career official. mr. duffy provided no credible explanation for that decision. mr. sandy testified that nothing like that had ever happened in his entire governmental career. let's think about that. if this is as retained as the president claims, why is a career official saying he's never seen anything like this happen before. mr. duffy knows why. shouldn't we just take the time to ask him? the american people deserve a fair trial. the constitution deserves a fair trial. the president deserves a fair trial. a fair trial means witnesses. a fair trial means documents, a fair trial means evidence. no one is above the law. and i yield to my distinguished quality, manager. >> mr. chief justice and senators it is not just about hearing from witnesses. you need documents. the documents don't lie. there is specific documents relevant to this impeachment trial in the custody of the white house, owen b, d&d and t

alix: mark zandi, moody's analytics chief economist. thank you. still with me is randy frederick.a grim description of what could happen. on the markets riep for that at all? randy: i think this has been viewed as primarily a q1 issue, march,are about to start so it will spill over into q2, so mark is right about seeing downgrades. there will be a q1 recession in china with negative gdp growth. i'm not sure that is the case. boost the past, it was to demand. we don't have a problem with demand. alix: can you look at the volatility market, and this is the chart three months versus one month. you can see the volatility -- you can see with the volatility is priced now versus later. is that right? randy: it probably is. let me tell you why. the vix index goes back to 1993. you get these spikes and they short like this. remained fortility several months, but most of the time, they are relatively short events. the further out contracts will be priced lower. that is a challenge for those pricing higher. they are not tied to the vix. they are tied to futures. if this market continues to g

. >> mark zandy said this is where it's a risk, that the president's response gets criticiz criticized. >> >> that's your model for that hurricane katrina and the response to that, and essential. bush's approval ratings really never recovered after that >> but the stock market and economy have been a bigger part of the rhetoric for the president. >> yes >>> we are down about 3%, not far from the session lows, down 850 points, and clearly today another massive mover has been the bond market. rick santelli has a check-in on the bonds. >> we are seeing a bit of a comeback but i mean little the worst other best, depending on your position, performers five-year note yields down on the six. set below an important september high bertha, four days down for the nasdaq, but that's over 850 points. >> the nasdaq got ready to close below 9,000. apple now in correction, down 12% from the high back in january 29th the chip sector is right there with it. take a look at amd, down 19% from the february 19th all-time high just last week, bob it's been a swift pullback. >> some other big-cap names have d

joining us now from morgan asset management and mark zandi from moody's analytics.art with you. is the market responding to the virus spreading around the world and the impact it will have? >> i think the market is i think the big concern from the investment community is you can be contagious while not exhibiting any symptoms. it's very difficult to track exactly what's going on and how much the virus has, in fact, spread in and of itself it looks like the flu. i'm not trying to take it lightly, it is flu like. the real impact what the spread looks like economic and financial impacts, factories closed longer, businesses airing on the side of caution we're trying to tie back to outlook for growth, outlook for corporate profits, fourth quarter behind us are under a bit of pressure at the current juncture. >> mark, a lot of people have been trying to gauge the impact from the shutdown and chinese economy, such an important cog in the overall world economy but a lot of experts believe it's not about containment, about mitigation and will get to this country and impact e

also we have mark zandi i've known him since i was a regional economist. a long time ago. almost 30 years ago. mark is the chief economist and heads up all of their economic analysis, he heads up economy.com which he sold and he employed one of my son's best friend who is brilliant for quite a while comey lewis. >> is that right? >> yes he works with your brother but both of them have an interesting perspective in the title of this, that was james carville that said that back in 1992, what a colorful person he was. he is so i heard him recently. back in 1992 we had our first job as recovery and they were ushering in world war ii the silent generation of george h. w. bush and our first baby boomer bill clinton was elected and we had our first jobless recovery in 1992. so there was a lot of tension between the fed and president bush back then. so some of the things come around come to haunt us again. mark will start us off with a great model on modeling the economic impact and how the economy can affect the electoral vote, charlie will give a counterpoint on whether or not it

and also we have mark zandi. i have known mark since i was a regional economist. >> i remember those meetings from chicago. >> a long time ago. about 30 years ago, i think. anyway, and mark has a model for moody's. he's chief economist at moody's analytics. he had economy.com before that, and he employed one of my son's best friends, who happens to be brilliant. >> who is that? >> colby lewis. >> is that right? >> yeah. he worked with your brother. >> that explains it. >> but both of them have an interesting perspective, and the title of this session is it's the economy, stupid. james carville said that back in 1992. what a colorful person he was, is still. it's the economy stupid, because back in 1992, we had our first jobless recovery, and they were ushering in the end of world war ii, so the silent generation of george h.w. bush, and our first baby boomer, bill clinton, was elected. and we had our first jobless recovery back in 1992. so there was a lot of tension between the fed and president bush back then, to