economy with mark zandi, he is with moody's analytics, he is their chief economist. welcome back to the program. moody's is and your role in it. guest: moody's analytics is part of the moody's corporation which includes the rating agency. moody's analytics does work in providing support for a large number of companies and financial institutions around the world. the economy matters to these institutions. that is where i come in, helping these institutions understand where the economy is headed and the risks they face as part of the economy's performance. host: you put a look into where the economy is going to review developed a new term called slow-cession. can you describe that? guest: in my view, 2023 going into 2024 is going to be tough for the economy. it is not going to be easy. inflation is high. federal reserve is raising interest rates quickly to quell the wage and price pressures. that environment, the economy is going to struggle. i think we have a good chance of getting through the next year or so without a actual recession. a recession is a broad-based ac

. >> mark zandi joining us about questions on the economy and all on the democrat, republican, or independent line. if you want to text us, (202)748-8003. mr. zandi, you talked about the fed and attitudes towards rates and we'll see rates but maybe not as high this coming year and if that's the case >> it's going to raise rates more and very aggressively last year in 2022. it's hard to l believe but you o back to this time last year, the federal funds rate target that's the interest rate that the reserve directly controls and that was close to zero, close to zero and now sitting somewhere 4.25, 4.5% and that's a pretty big change in a short period of time. investors and financial markets are expecting the fed to raise rates another half percentage point over the next couple three months andhs by spring the funds target is at zero and close to 5%. just for context, the best estimates of the interest rate that's consist here in the next few months and double that rate with neutral respect w to the economy. the fed is working really hard to bring in the inflation. now after that it's hard to kno

. >>> plus, we'll talk to moody's analytics chief economist mark zandi about the job cut news at salesforce and the broader trend of layoffs, where the job market stands let's get to the dashboard with senior markets commentator, mike santoli. what is on your radar? now it's only energy in the red. >> the rally had some of the starts taken out by the fed minutes. the s&p 500 is still caught in that very new year mean reversion type action. the laggards of last year performing well. the leaders of last year coming off the boil a little bit. that has kept us in this zone, just about 3,800 now, the market didn't make my real use of the traditional late december strength except to fail to break down, again, this 3,800-ish level. keeps it out of the october low zone, and takes us all the way back to six or seven months ago. have not climbed above that today. it's the final day for those keeping track of the rally period, seven trading days 3822 is the level they should finish above if it's going to be considered a positive indicator. really it's the absence of a potential negative indicator as l

after that, mark zandi goes over the economic outlook for 2023 and concerns about a possible recession. take part in the conversation, call or send us a text message, facebook comment or tweet. washington journal starts now. ♪ host: this is washington journal for january 9, the house meets today to vote on a package that will establish the framework for legislative work in the 118th congress on the house side. you can watch that vote in debate player on the main channel c-span. when it comes to what americans want to see out of the new congress overall, a new cbs poll shows issues such as inflation and crime were noted as areas congress should focus upon. in our first hour, what is your highest priority for the new 118th congress, particularly on the house side, as they get to work? here is how to call. (202) 748-8000 for democrats, (202) 748-8001 for republicans and (202) 748-8002 for independents. if you want to text us about what you think the highest priority should be, you could do that at (202) 748-8003 or post on social media sites, facebook.com/cspan and @cspanwj on twitter and

it was mark zandi of moody's analytics, the chief economist who's on with this yesterday talking about the impact of not raising the debt ceiling. here's a little bit of what he had to say. >> the debt limit obviously is no limit on the amount of treasury debt that can be outstanding, and we are now bumping up against that limit. if we hit the limit and the treasure runs out of all the cash it has in its bank accounts, it can't issue more bonds, or treasury bonds to help finance the government spending and tax policy. someone is not going to get paid. the treasury can't cut a check to somebody. it could be a social security recipient. it could be someone in the military. it could be, could be bondholders, people who own the treasury bonds from you, , you y have in your pension plan to foreign investors, middle eastern investors, japanese or chinese investors. so someone doesn't get paid, then that's going to send a bomb throughout the global financial system. because one of the bedrock principles of a well functioning global finance system isen that the u.s. pays its a debt. it pays it

economy with mark zandi, he is with moody's analytics, he is their chief economist.elcome back to the program. moody's is and your role in it. guest: moody's analytics is part of the moody's corporation which

mitchell, mark zandi, do you have any recommendations? we are talking particularly home values of less than one hundred thousand, what comes from policy recommendations for myself, colleagues and the administration? >> the equitable finance programs are implemented, the gse has to do them every 3 years, there needs to be account ability for those plans, we need to know how they are delivering public interest mandates for protections that they get to make sure credit availability is available in every market, not only fannie mae and freddie mac but the federal home loan bank. >> are you concerned about the possibility the fed monetary policy will lead to a larger homebuilding gap increasing shortage of housing, and the issues families are going through in the 13th district? >> it will, the higher rates push people, they can't buy a home because they can't afford it so they go into rental property which accept rents and affect lending rates for construction and development so that affects the ability of multifamily developers for property s

. >> economist mark zandy for his part expects u.s. inflation to ease this year.ecession could still be avoided. >> i don't think it's inevitable. i think the economy has some underlying strenhs. the american consumer is in a pretty good spot. american businesses are doing well. profit margins are near record leve. balance sheets are strong. >> we asked zandi what he thinks of the biggest risks for the world economy in 2023. >> at t top of the list of risks i would put what's going on in russia, the russia/ukraine conflict and what that might mean for oil and other commodity prices. if russia goes down a darker path here and oil prices spike back up again, that would be a real problem. that would aost for sure mean that the gbal economy is going en into a recession in 2023. >> rogers on the other hand, says policy mistakes of central banks are the top risk. >> they have printed too much, and the bank of japan, and the central bank in europe. everybody. but the central banks around the world are the biggest risks because they have made mistakes, they will make more

economy with mark zandi, moody analytics chief economist. thanks you for joining us. remind people what moody's is and your role in it. guest: moody's analytics is part of the moody's corporation which includes the rating agency. moody's analytics does work in providing support for a large number of companies and financial institutions around the world. the economy matters to these institutions. that is where i come in, helping these institutions understand where the economy is headed and the risks they face as part of the economy's performance. host: you put a look into where the economy is going to review developed a new term called slow-cession. can you describe that? guest: in my view, 2023 going into 2024 is going to be tough for the economy. it is not going to be easy. inflation is high. federal reserve is raising interest rates quickly to quell the wage and price pressures. that environment, the economy is going to struggle. i think we have a good chance of getting through the next year or so without a actual recession. a recession is a broad-based across lots

now you can agree or disagree, he's a market kind of cycle guy, not an economist, not a mark zandi, one of the best on the planet i might point out, and mark is in this not necessarily recession camp as much as i think slow session camp, something like that, mark? you definitely see things slowing down but not a collapse; right? >> yeah, that's right, neil. i think the economy at first with the recession and inflation and on high alert. but i think -- coming in relatively quickly and we can make our way through with that [ audio issues ]. recession high without a recession. neil: mark, we're having some problem with your audio and hoping it improves as we continue to speak but if not we'll try to patch it up. i'm interested to know what you make of peter eliadi's thoughts and he's saying with unemployment as low as it is, in the past when it's gotten to that, it's cablooey time for the markets. i'm wondering if it's time for the markets could it be for the economy as well? what do you think? >> well, unemployment is low. but with the fed rate hikes, i expect -- high enough, fast enough

after that, mark zandi goes over the economic outlook for 2023 and concerns about a possible recession. take part in the conversation, call or send us a text message, facebook comment or tweet. washington journal starts now. ♪ host: this is washington journal for january 9, the house meets today to vote on a package that will establish the framework for legislative work in the 118th congress on the hosi

prudent for the banks to be cautious here because they do face a lot of risk here going forward. >> mark zandi, sure. >> he's got a url for slow session. that mark. >>> all right, all those financial results that we've been talking about this morning are out. we're still trying to digest them some of the calls have taken place, but not all, i don't believe. let's get over to dom chu right now to help us sort through this >> david, to your point, what we have formally, the formal analyst calls for jpmorgan have finished up. bank of america is, i think, just on the verge of or just having wrapped up. generally speaking, it's a more mixed picture for the banks overall. you mentioned some commentary coming out of the banks. i want to take you to a highlight we heard from jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon. one thing interesting about this call is he talked about the competition among nonbanking participants and lenders in a higher interest rate environment. this is what jamie dimon had to say about what he thinks about the competitive environment for some of those nonbank lenders. >> you have the appl

i mean, i guess if you're looking at a slow session as mark zandi called it or moody's ka uld it or maybe a recession in 2023 with a job market that is still this strong even though it may be slowing? >> the short answer is, no, you can't have a recession with really positive and strong jobs growth. i don't think that that jobs growth is going to continue for the duration of 2023, and i think the first quarter and the first half of 2023 are going to be particularly challenging. they're going to be absorbed because there are so many job openings. we've seen small businesses decrease in their hiring plans. i think that's been a spread across the broader economy and increasingly will become the case that the layoffs are not going to lead to people being rehired elsewhere but, rather, just going on unemployment benefits and being unemployed. >> solid for now but watch the space as we move into 2023. john leer, morning consult. nice to see you. have a great weekend. >> thank you. same to you. >>> 11 rounds of voting and still no speaker. what this means ahead. >>> bullet holes in new mexico an

it's from mark zandi at moody's. 6 million jobs, 12 trillion in household wealth would be lost or 4%loyment doubling to 7%. sandy says the hit to the economy -- zandi says the hit to the economy would be cataclysmic. the specter of it does create this choppiness particularly in the market. stuart: yes. lauren: so it does have an effect. stuart: yes, it does. 2010-2011, there's a debt crisis. market was trembling. i just don't think we'll ever actually default. not gonna happen. >>> check futures, please, we're down about 150 points for the dow industrials and 78 for the nasdaq. the opening bell is next. ♪ hey now, you're an all-star. ♪ get your game on, go play. ♪ hey now, you're a rock star. ♪ get the show on and get paid. ♪ all that glitters is gold. ♪ only shooting stars break the mold ♪ teeth sensitivity is so common. it immediately feels like somebody's poking directly on the nerve. i recommend sensodyne. sensodyne toothpaste goes inside the tooth and calms the nerve down. and my patents say: “you know doc, it really works." stuart: okay. futures pointing south, down 140 for the

mark zandy is the chief economist at moody's, he estimates we lose 6 million jobs and 12 trillion buckssehold wealth if we default on our debt. stephen moore joins me thank goodness. can we be clear, stephen, absolutely clear, there is no way on god's green earth that we , america, will default on our debt. we're not going to do it, are we >> no, stuart, and it's shame on president biden for even making this claim that somehow america will default on its debt it will not happen. it will not happen on god's green earth. you're exactly right, stuart. so no investor, let me state it very plainly. no investor has to worry about these bonds not being repaid. these are as good as gold. no doubt about it. now, we are going to have a fight over the debt ceiling, no question about it, and you can see the numbers on your screen. this is why we have to have a fight. incidentally, stuart, when i first came to washington in 1984 , the debt wasn't 31.5 trillion. it was 1.5 trillion so what i'm saying to you is that we've added $30 trillion to our debt in some 35 years or so. now, here is another poin

economy is in a delicate place for reasons we awk about but as mark zandi told me, the closer we get to not being able to pay our debt, the closer we get to a recession. if the u.s. actually defaulted on its debt which it has never inte intentionally as you pointed out would set off a chain of reactioned. first government contractors, vendors and such not being paid, a whole slew of them not being paid but rates for government get going up. u.s. government debt is considered basically risk-free. a safe haven investment but if suddenly investors start to feel like the u.s. government can't pay its debtors obligation, those rates go up then that has an impact on all sorts of consumer borrowing. think higher mortgage rates, a higher, smaller business loan, higher auto loans, all of those things, it would have an impact to the financial markets as this creates jitterness, one market strategist put it this way, this will end up being the most serious debt crisis in the nation's history. there will be a credible risk of default and it may not be resolved until the very last minute. how ser

mark zandi, moody's analytics, said, financial markets and the economy will crater. larry summers, former treasury secretary, that many of you speak with -- a default would be catastrophic. it would mean higher borrowing cost forever. and lastly, wendy edelberg from brookings -- it's playing a game with the u.s. economy and people's lives that i think is irresponsible. so, yes, there are programs that will definitely be at risk if this is the direction that republicans in the house decide to take. reporter: ok. so, another follow-up to this. are there efforts afoot in this white house, up and down pennsylvania avenue, to safeguard if there is this crisis that continues to loom? for instance, you know, you talked about social security checks. not just social security -- medicaid, medicare, and military checks and other items. are you guys working on any kind of process to be a safety net so that the military can get paid, so that these checks can come out in the midst of this crisis, as you're fighting about raising the debt limit, that is constitutional? ms. jean-pie