year ago as investors search for any and every clue on the rate hiking campaign joining me now, mark zandieat to have you here. >> good morning, frank. >> we laid out the expectations, 1.57 year over year. what are your expectations and haw to you see it playing out including core cpi >> the consensus is very close to my estimate i expect it to rise 0.2 of a month and 5% year over year, which feels really good, right, frank? if you go back last summer, it peaked at 9% so here we are at five and we her headed south fairly quickly. i think we'll be closer to 3% by the end of the year. core inflation as you point out excludeing food and energy will be sticky. that will rise 5.5%, 6%, year over year. that's going to take more to get back in because at the end of the day it goes into wages and housing and that's going to take more time to come in i think it's something we'll come back from. >> it seems like we're about to head into a defin active downward trend i want to talk about oil we haven't seen as much of a boost in oil as many would expect, but does oilplay a part in this narrative when

host: mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics. always appreciate your time, gl >> c-span's washington journal, every day we take your calls, live on the air on the news of the day. and we discussed policy issues that impact you. coming up tuesday morning, yahoo! news editor in chief discusses the trump indictment and what to expect in the weeks ahead. then frontline documentary producer and director martin smith discusses his latest film, america and the taliban, which documents how america's 20 year investment in afghanistan and intel about victory. join the discussion with their phone calls, facebook comments text and tweets. >> tuesday night former president donald trump will speak at mar-a-lago, following his arraignment in new york live from palm beach florida starting at 815 p.m. eastern on c-span. we will also take your phone calls, and you can watch on our free mobile video app, c-span now or online at c-span.org. thisear's grand prize winners and c-span student doary contest are eighth graders dr. martin luther king jr. m

alright, optimistic mark zandi. thanks so much good to see you. thank you take care, political battle. well it's far from over. that's the message from two tennessee democratic lawmakers who were expelled by republican supermajority after they protested against gun violence up next we'll speak to one lawmaker who managed to avoid that expulsion. okakay everyone. our mission is complete, balanceded nutrition together, e provide nutrients to support immune, muscle boom and heart health, 25 vitamins and minerals and ensure complete with 30 g of protein. if you have diabetes, it's important to ve confidence in the nutritional drink you choose.ry boost contry shown to help manage blood sugar levels and contains high quality protein to help manage hunger and support. muscle health. try boost today climbs ladders to clean their gutters. dad. i keep telling you, it's dangerous. climbing ladders is too dangerous. lee filter puts an end to that. so how does it work? the filters three piece system filters out leaves and debris water flow through freely. do w

mark zandi from moody's telling me thursday usually it is the consumer that pulls back and the businesses respond. this go round the thing that feels a little uncomfortable is if we go into a recession, it will probably be businesses pulling back and forcing consumers to follow. and in other words, businesses pull back, stop hiring, layoff workers and thus spark a recession. all eyes now on the federal reserve, it meets for its next policy meeting next week. and zandi expects another rate hike but they have enough evidence to a slowdown so it could mean an end to the rate hiking cycle. >>> still ahead, south korea's president addresses the u.s. congress warning that the countries must present a united front against threats from north korea. >>> and after 20 years in the u.s., a giant panda is back at home. >>> and brittney griner shares her story. she opens up about being detained in russia. >>> i'm no stranger to hard times. so -- has no idea she's sitting onona goldmine. wellll she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it t

join us now is mark zandi. good to see you, mark.you want to jump in how important is this consumer pessimism as an input to what happens here with the economy? >> well, it matters. at the end of the day, a recession is a loss of faith consumers lose faith they will hold on to their jobs and pull back on spending so this matters. but i will say there is lots of different surveys. the one i find most useful engaging prospects for the economy, recession, and no slant against the cnbc survey, but it's the conference board survey i find that to be much more presient it's consistent with this long-run average, and no signs of weakening there and you see this big collapse in confidence, people running for the bunkers, they stop spending, i don't see that >> the market is interesting you're saying the fed needs to pivot or we will be in a recession. given the debate we were just having, where investors are saying the banks are telling us we're in a recession, but the consumers feel like we are in, and you say the fed needs to pivot. what ar

when i talk to mark zandy, how do you explain this?told me, he said usually it's the consumer that pulls back, the businesses respond. this go-around, the thing that feels a little uncomfortable, if we go into a recession it probably broadband businesses pulling back and forces consumers to follow. at this point, that's not what we see. >> and, rahel, the job continues to be strong. >> this is a real indicator of what's happening in the market, jabless claims falling to 230,000, that's lower than economists were expecting, also lower than the prior week, but really in this range we've been in of 220 to 250,000 over the last few weeks. boris, this would be the first report, the first sign of trouble in the labor market, the first flashing signs of trouble, perhaps. we're not seeing it yet. perhaps that's the reason why consumers continue to spend. >>> now we'll have to wait and see how the federal reserve responds at its next meeting. rahel, thank you. >>> the woman accusing donald trump of rape is back on the witness stands, what she's

host: mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics.ays appreciate your time, glad we were able to go back to way back machine today and view you into thousand eight. guest: thanks, jon. host: we will continue our open forum, letting you lead the discussion. any public policy issue you want to talk about. the phone numbers are on the screen. go ahead and start calling now and we will be back. ♪ ♪ >> c-span shop.org is c-span's online store. browse through our latest collection of c-span products, apparel, books, home decor and accessories. there is nothing for every c-span -- something for every c-span fan. shop now or anytime at c-span shop.org. ♪ >> the up-to-date and the latest in publishing with book tv's podcast about books. with current nonfiction book releases, plus bestseller lists as well as industry news and trends through insider interviews. you can find about books on c-span now, our free mobile app, or wherever you get your podcasts. ♪ ♪ >> since 1979, in partnership with the cable industry, c-span has provided complete cov

this hour when cannabis company tilray reports results >>> we'll talk to moody's chief economist mark zandi week's key inflation data >>> now let's get straight to our market panel joining us now are victoria green and vanu

i talked to mark zandi a couple weeks ago, and he said he believed that the coming credit tightening result of what's going on in the banking sector is the equivalent of two to three rate hikes of 25 basis points that has not been factored in yet. >> does that -- so they're done, is that what you're saying >> or keep going on ahead and then this is on top of it and they're overtightening >> right, well, he's right if he's right, then they do have a little draft kind of cover to hide behind to wait and see for a couple months and see if that actually does happen >> it's interesting. small business, right, we talk about, there's a confidence reading this week and i think jeff dunlock tweeted it out that literally the index is plummeting, right?are seeing ino of small businesses -- small is a small word, small businesses employ maybe two-thirds of the people in america, right so, if their confidence in the economy, their confidence in the ability to access credit, the confidence in the banking system is shaken, that's going to work its way through our economy at the wrong time so, we ta

mark zandi, moody's analytics with us chief economic analyst.inus trump drama unfolding it is uncertainty, we don't know how this all ends up, markets abhor uncertainties but this is not higher uncertainty, they have more immediate needs, right. >> neil, agree with that. it is hard to connect the dots between what is going on with the former president and the economy. markets are focused on lots of other things. you mentioned the oil prices, opec decision, probably the most top of mind today. then of course we've been engulfed in a banking crisis and debt limit you mentioned. so there is a lot of other issues i think investors are focused on, the travails of the former president are probably not on the list. neil: talk about some other open-ended questions. a lot of people are now saying there, was an interesting piece i think in "barron's" over the weekend said we might be through the worst of it. i'm over simplifying it but that, we seem to have dodged a bullet. i'm thinking to myself, well, maybe we did but is it too soon to say that? >> when

. -- mark zandi says speake mccarthy's debt limit bill would quote, meaningfull increased the likelihoodby the end of 2024. now, it's not clear if mccarth has the votes to pass this bill, as we saw when he ran fo speaker, of 15 times, he sometimes doesn't count so bad mccarthy is still working to win over some republicans wh believe we should parables, an some of the chaos caucus members who don't seem t understand or care about the disastrous effect if america default. so, to be clear, it would be disastrous for you and me, the american people. that is who gets harmed by taking the american econom hostage to extract pop unpopular policy changes tha republicans could neve actually get passed on the merits mccarthy can only lose fou republican votes today, the house democrats top super pac now launched this tv ad in six competed new yor districts, including four that were flipped by republican during the midterm election. >> defaulting on our debts, in our homes, we try to avoid it. but in this house, mascara publicans are so extreme the are ready to let america default, sinking us into r

so, you know, look, i think you know when i talked to economists, when i talked to mark zandi, who wet heard in that clip there, and i asked of which your advice for people at home who here 3.5% unemployment , but you know recession fears and he said, look, things are fine. still the labor market certainly is fine. you don't necessarily need to run for the bunker, but like cautious, be prudent to what do lawmakers say about this? well inflation and spending and the economy are still the number one issue for republicans and a lot of voters nationwide. and i do think i mean, we all probably feel it personally. things are very expensive. right now. we do feel the impact of inflation. yes, gasp! prices are down from where they were at their peak last summer, but things are still very expensive right now, and that is the key message that republicans are driving, while also say a huge concern of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle is the impending debt limit and how there's been no negotiations at all between the white house and republicans on the hill to try and deal with this, and that's