prices last month, they fell for a third straight time since april of 2020 joining me now with more, mark zandif economist at moody analytics. mark, how are you? >> good morning, frank good to talk with you. >> i don't know if it's something you pay attention to, but how big of a read is it into cpi? i don't remember if you saw last week, adp came in very hot, but the actual jobs number came in very different is there any parallel when it comes to huge job numbers and cpi? >> i look at it. at moody's we construct our own price car index. we saw a large decline in the month of june of about 3%, well over 3%, down 9% year over year, and it matters in terms of -- it's a weight in the cpi. it's probably 2%, 3% it's probably not a big deal but it is indicative 's an area we've seen price increases that added to inflation back a year or so ago and now it's going start to weigh on inflation new vehicle prices have also rolled over. frank, what east most fundamental is we're getting more global production japan and germany, which are large vehicle producers that supply chain issue since the pandemic, t

>> yeah, you know, i think mark zandi was right. this was a dream report for a lot of policy makers in washington, but at the end of the day, the federal reserve is still looking at what is a pretty hot job market with 4.4% annual wage growth, and that wage growth is making fed officials a little bit nervous. they're not sure inflation can get the whole way back to normal because that inspires companies to charge more and have higher prices and keep inflation rising. investors basically see it as a done deal at this point, and that's really a response to a continued momentum in this economy. >> the promise, errol, for the fed and jerome powell kind of runs cow ter to the roles of the rhetoric in the white house where the feds are factoring in job losses and wage growth as it relates to trying to cool the economy is a bad thing. the president is saying look at the millions of jobs we've created and wages are growing. it's that contradiction, not a conflict, that is politically difficult. >> well, that's right. there's a push and pull

mark zandi is that name you may not know from moody's. of the 2008 recession, the great financial crisis. is written a couple of books on it but he said in early 2008, we will come out of this and be resilient and we will move forward. dr. zandi joins us now from moody's analytics. do you have the optimism you had them now? can you look to the future and see in america of productivity and real gdp gain? >> yeah, i can. what's the warren buffett adage -- don't that against the american economy. that's pretty accurate. it goes up and down and all around but cutting through all the ups and downs, the economy is resilient and i think their prospects are good long run. tom: almost to the point of new york university on technology and growth, the technology miracle we have in america now with stocks and the ai and all that, how do you overlay technology now as an optimistic force for america? >> that's key to driving the productivity gains. technology innovation, entrepreneurism is what makes the american economy exceptional and makes it tick.

so if you put all of this together, it does speak to goldilocks, mark zandi said on twitter, the junes close to perfect, not too hot, not too cold. the thinking, jim, is that the fed will continue to raise interest rates including later this month, but hopefully, it's closer to the end. >> it's such an important window as christine romans says the trend is your friend. a lot of folks will spin the numbers. matt egan, always good to have you break it down. thanks so much. >>> boris. >>> still to come, high anxiety, rescuers rushing to rescue dozens of people trapped on one of the world's highest cable systems. impactful ful rescue. >>> elon musk dressing down mark zuckerberg over his threads and threatening to sueue as it hits another mimilestone. that's next on "cnn news central." sleep more deeply. and wake up rejuvenated. purple mattress's exclusive gelflex grid draws away heat, relieves pressure, and instantly adapts. sleep better, live purple. save up to $800 off mattress sets duri purple's july 4th sale. visit purple.com or a store near you. ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones

mark zandi, the chief economist of moody's, he looked at gdp and said it's about the equivalent of shavingnt. that said, if it's your budget, probably feels a bit different. right? wells fargo put it this way, it's a big deal for affected households. not so much less so for broader consumer spending. the average student loan payment, about $210 to $314 according to wells fargo. so the impact to larger consumer spending, perhaps not as significant, but here's what i can tell you people are watching very closely. the timing. the timing of this. so when tens of millions of americans have to repay these payments, these student loans after three years of not having had to pay them, it will coincide with what appears to be a slowdown in consumer spending. that has already taken shape. i mean, remember last week, brian moynihan of bank of america spoke to poppy and bank of america has access to millions of checking accounts, credit card accounts, because of their retail business. he said that they are already starting to see in data as recently as june that people are starting to pull back. so it

it could affect your economy personally, whoever you are, a great deal, but if you look at what mark zandisically said that this can affect individual people in their own way, ending these sources of income and support will be a financial blow to lower income americans and be a headwind to overall economic growth. but really important here, it won't blow hard enough to push the overall economy into recession. he went on to talk about the fed handling interest rates, how they have to walk a knife edge to move forward. depending who you are, big impact. in terms of the overall committee, they think right now maybe not. >> lower income americans getting hit here. we're also getting a glimpse into folks who have a cushion, right, who have some savings. what are we seeing? >> and this is why we're not sure where this will land. look, right now, from 2019 to 2023 before the pandemic to today, people have 10% to 15% more in their savings, median cash balances. that was much higher, but it's still higher than it was. and very importantly, right now, earnings have just started outpacing inflation.

than an hour until the fed's decision steve liesman has more emily row manland also joins us with mark zandieve, we kick it off with you set the scene for us >> thanks, melissa with. a quarter point hike expected, it will be on the guidance that will come in the press conference and whether the statement gives the dovish guidance from may or the hawkish guidance from june in may, the statement said, in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate. that signals it was not decided on whether to hike and set up a pause. then in june, most recent statement it read, in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate so the fed pretty much decided to hike, just not sure how much or when. steven stanley believes the fed is in the mode of hiking every other meeting. he wrote -- >> the market has its options open only a 20% rate hike in september. and then in that every other meeting mode, the fed gets back the hiking in november that's el katevated in recent d. forecasters keep predicting the economy. the data keep defying those predictions

. >> mark good to talk to you, mark zandi, chief economies at movies economies.brother. check. psych! and i'm about to steal this game from you just like i stole kelly carter in high school. you got no game dude, that's a foul! and now you're ready to settle the score. game over. and if you don't have the right home insurance coverage, well, you could end up paying for all this yourself. so get allstate, and be better protected from mayhem, yeah, like me. thanks, bro. take a lap, rookie. real mature. my most important kitchen tool? my brain. so i choose neuriva plus. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicators of brain health. to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger. your best defense against erosion and cavities is strong enamel- nothing beats it. new pronamel active shield actively shields the enamel to defend against erosion and cavities. i think that this product is a gamechanger for my patients- it really works. is it possible to protect my business from cyber threats? gamechanger for my patients- it is, with comcast bu

mark zandi is a chief economist at movies analytics. the last word is next.th my psoriatic arthritis symptoms. but just ok isn't ok. and i was done settling. if you still have symptoms after a tnf blocker like humira or enbrel, rinvoq is different and may help. rinvoq is a once-daily pill that can dramatically relieve ra and psa symptoms, including fatigue for some. it can stop joint damage. and in psa, can leave skin clear or almost clear. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal; cancers, including lymphoma and skin cancer; death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older with at least one heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if allergic to rinvoq as serious reactions can occur. tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. done settling? ask your rheumatologist for rinvoq. and take back what's yours. learn how abbvie could help you save. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its cust

mark zandi is boosting this third quarter warnings but warning a government shutdown in the fall andvernment spend willing slow gdp to near zero in the fourth quarter. back to you. >> steve liesman, thanks. >>> new details emerging around the sec's legal action against coinbase ceo brian armstrong telling the "financial times" the agency asked the crypto platform to halt trading other than bitcoin. suing the exchange for failing to register as a certified broker the sec tells the ft its enforcement division did not make formal request for the companies to delist crypto assets in a statement, views shared in the ft article may have represented the views of some staff at the time but did not represent those of the commission more broadly. >>> all right. still to come on semi is adding to nice gains on the year after result of the company. we'll break down the results and the ceo will join cnbc in the 11:00 hour first the ceo of shark ninja, just went public at the new york stock exchange its stock is up sharply. dot awhe.n'gonyer ♪♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold ne

and mark zandi writing in, inflation is receding and the fed is near the end of its rate hikes.of respondents say there's a 50% probability or higher of a soft landing and 58% say it's less than a 50% probability, so they are kind of that in little limbo range there. the group is generally bearish on stocks, and keep that in mind when they say they see a soft landing already priced into equities 30% say prices already have a soft landing built into their prices, but 47% saying stocks are overpriced even if there's a soft landing these guys are pretty good on interest rates, and good on the fed and less good when it comes to their stock predictions >> yep all right. that's all important info, steve, just to figure out exactly where we stand we have beater bookfar, as well as the famous allen sinai. thank you both for joining us. i introduced you first, peter. is it in the cards for a soft landing? could the feds just nail it after all that excess for ten years, can we really do it and orchestrate like a 10 off the balance beam >> i think it's highly unlikely. it's not a surprise

economy as we kick off the second half for that we'll bring many moody's analytics chief economist, mark zanding back late last year, people would have said, we're going to be in a recession. you heard those manufacturing numbers, no recession in sight is it ever coming? >> no, david, i don't think so i don't want to be polly anna-ish, when you're in a world of high inflation in a federal reserve that's raising interest rates aggressively, you tend to land in a recession. but i think we have a fighting chance to get through without an economic downturn. these are the four dreaded words, this time is different. but it feels like this time is different for a bunch of reasons. i'll we'll make our way through without a downtown. >> what are the reasons it's different this time? >> it's a long list. i give you number one. i think consumers are going to hang tough the consumer's fire wall between recession and continued growth, and things are going pretty well, you know, lots of jobs unemployment is low. leverage is low. i'm painting with a broad brush. people are less wealthy than they were a year