mark zandy, the guy you quoted, he's the white house's favorite economist. he's not a conservative republican. according to his figures, i'm going to run through three numbers here. this is the cost of bidenomics, by the way. the effects of inflation, this is according to mark zandy, 8,800 more a year for just goods and services. the cost of interest rates, which have gone up because the fed is trying to battle inflation, they're raising rates to do that. buying a new car, you mentioned a car. it's an extra $1,800 a year. that is how much more you're paying in car payments than you were two years ago. buying a home, the big -- the american dream. that's the big one. if you want to buy a $300,000 home, you're paying an extra $9,384 a year in interest payments. that's on top of what you were paying. yes, it's true that salaries have gone up. no question about that. they haven't gone up enough to make up for that. you add all this up together, that's an extra $20,000 a year. how many people have gotten an extra $20,000 in their income every year? very few. >> m

for more, let's bring in chief economist mark zandi with steve liesman. welcome to both of you.ve, let's start with waller's comments. he was saying more than that, but he, like many, were cheering the data, fewer job openings, and labor market moderations we saw last week. >> yeah, let's just put waller in context. when he doesn't frown, it's like he's smiling. he's not the most jubilant person to be with, but he was not that bad about the data. he was a little more on the hawkish side, and i do want to make a remark about goldman's call. it's not remarkable they went from 20% to 15%, but what is remarkable is they are doubling down on saying the chance of recession is less than average. so in any given year, there's a one in four, one in five chance of a recession happening. i don't think he's going crazy here, but what he is saying to us in this call is that it's a less an average chance, which is significant. i don't necessarily see the data that way. but certainly we have come a long way in terms of defying the recession probabilities. >> he's been correct out there, to his

mark zandi joins us this morning. you to reflect on sort of dalio's long-standing view and whether or not that is coming into focus. >> well, i got a kick out of frustrating inarticulate. i hope david doesn't say that about me. >> i never do, mark. you are the opposite. >> you're kind. that was a good term of words there. yeah. my sense is the economy is resilient. the consumers hanging tough. businesses don't want to lay off so hard to see a recession. but there are slings and arrows here and the higher long-term interest rates is kind of at the top of those concerns. i thinks ray dalio has a point. we have fiscal problems. look at the congressional budget office forecast, the cbo, the folks that do this for a living, nonpartisan, the debt to gdp ratio is 100% if we don't change spending policy, 115% a decade from now, 180% three decades from now they don't do forecasts after that, but look at the trend lines. we have to make progress there. carl, the key reason for the run up in interest rates right now are two fold

today, moody's economist mark zandi said a prolonged work stoppage like that would bring economic growthave cohen is in toledo, where you see striking workers behind you. dave, how long are people intending to be on the picket lines? >> reporter: well, brianna, i hear from worker after worker, over the past few days i've been talking to them, they're ready to strike. with the national economy the 5800 workers here in toledo to nearly 13,000 across the country. they're getting strike pay, $500 a week. far less than they would be making. they don't have a salary right now. they're making that money from the union. right now, we're on the picket line outside of this stellantis jeep factory. one of the biggest issues for stellantis uaw workers is tiered pay, people on the same line doing basically the same job are making different amounts of money. i want to bring in one of the workers, tim, if i can bring you in here. this is tim. tim, we were talking to you before, you were saying you're one of those temporary workers you're capped at $19 an hour, is that right? >> $19.28 yes. >> what are

mark zandi is the chief economist for moody's analytics. the u.s. still facing this threat from inflation, broader economic slow downs and now potentially this shutdown. what is this going to do to the economy? >> nothing good, fred. i mean, you know, if it's a couple three weeks which is a kind of typical shutdown, you know, i don't think it's a big deal from a broader macro economic perspective. obviously it's a big deal for a couple million employee that don't get paid. but the timing isn't great, right? we've got the uaw strike. we've got student loan payments that are going to start kicking in. we've got higher interest rates and now paying for a gallon of regular unled. a lot of head winds for the economy, and you throw this into the mix, it's really bad time. of course if it goes on for longer than three weeks it can cause economic damage. >> if there is a government shutdown while you talk about the macro picture may not be devastate over a three-week period, if you are among the millions who are counting on your paycheck and now you're not

reporter: mark zandi is the chief economist at moody analytics. >> this should not push this resilientconomy into recession, certainly not by itself. i mean, obviously, it can construct dark scenarios where the strike extends on, let's say, through the end of the year into next. if that's the case, then the damage to the economy could be serious enough that it could push us over the edge into an economic downturn, but that seems unlikely at this point. reporter: the loss of income, says zandi, could impact those midwestern communities who rely on auto production jobs. and consumers nationwide could feel that impact too. >> it's just going to be tougher to find many of the vehicles that you might want to purchase. it also could result in higher vehicle prices. vehicle prices have gone skyward here since the pandemic because of the supply shortages, and this would only exacerbate it. i don't think it's a big deal in terms of availability and price if the strike lasts a few days, a few weeks, but if it drags on for a month, two or three, then shortages will become more prevalent and highe

and mark zandi, moody's analytic chief economist. , in this panel, i think you are alone in believing, with some degree of certainty, that the fed is likely finished raising interest rates for this cycle. why are you persuaded that that is the case, and how does banking and a possible banking crisis and a possible concern about breaks in commercial real estate figuring in to that hypothesis that the fed is done? >> yeah, indeed. i'm confident. you've had a lot of forecasting, and some things i'm confident in, some not. but here i'm confident that the fed is done. lots of reasons. most importantly, inflation is coming in. it's moving in the right direction. all the trend lines look really good here. the runup in oil prices could be a risk. but i think inflation will be on target this time next year, and that doesn't require more rate hikes. second, the economy is throttling back. businesses are cutting back hours, job growth is sloeg,wing and the labor market is easing up. and finally, as you point out, the banking system is still very

according to mark zandi, when you mix hire borre higher borro high prices, the typical american husbanouseholdould no use 42 weeks of income just to buy a new car up from 33 weeks a yearing a go. national association of realtors calculates typical american family cannot afford for buy a median priced home. joining us now, one of the 12 fed officials with a vote this year, president of the minneapolis fed, neel kashkari. good morning. >> good morning. >> i was struck seeing jamie dimon because he chooses words carefully. is 7% possible enough that americans should prepare for it? >> it is hard to prepare for it. i would say for everybody it is, for businesses and individuals. one of the big surprises for us over this year is how resilient the economy has been. as you said, we have raised interest rates a lot over the past couple years and yet the economy has continued to be quite strong and american households have continued to spend more than we expected. so that is good news that there is that resilience in the economy. but if our interest rate increases are not slowing the economy the way th

with me now is gina, the new york times reporter, and mark zandi, chief economist at moody's. i want to start with you, when we look at the potential of an economic impact, could be days, could be weeks, could be months of a strike, could this push the economy ultimately toward a recession? >> there's lots of different scenarios, a lot depends on how disruptive the strike is, and of course, how long it goes on for. if it's for a few weeks, a month, maybe two, probably not. i think the economy is resilient enough to digest that. but of course if it extended through the remainder of the year, then the economy would be really in trouble. of course, the economy is struggling with other things, we have student loan payments that are going to resume, a potential government shutdown, higher interest rates and most recently, the surge in oil prices and higher gasoline prices is starting to hurt as well. there's a lot of headwinds, this is just one more. if it extends through the remainder of the quarter, the remainder of the year, the odds of recession will arise significantly. >> gin

according to mark zandi, american consumers feeling the pinch of rising rates, and the analysts say ther strikes will not help the situation. >>> president biden met with striking workers on the picket line yesterday, the first sitting president to do so. former president trump makes his way to detroit, and that's where we find nbc's jay gray with the very latest. jay, good morning. >> reporter: yeah, good morning, frank, and once again, the striking union workers are gathering outside the gates, not only of this ford plant in wayne, michigan, but now 40 different plants across the country. the work stoppage doubling right now at least as a campaign stop in the early race for the white house. the politics of picketing continues in michigan. former president donald trump, the current front runner for the 2024 republican nomination scheduled to speak to auto workers tonight, a day after president biden's historic visit. the first sitting president to join a picket line. >> let's keep going, you deserve what you earn and you earned a hell of a lot more than what you're being pay out. >> mr

but another way to think about it mark zandy, chief economist of moodies a full strike would be the equivalent point from g-dp. he admits that's modest. but meaningful when you think about some of the other head way issues that we're having, right? you think about, for example, student loan repayments starting again. you think about, for example, oil being back above $90 a barrel. there are a lot of head winds happening simultaneously, so meaningful. if it feels like there have been more strikes than usual. it's not just your imagination. >> there have. >> so i talked to art wheaten and i asked him, what's behind this? he runs the labor program at cornell. he said there are a few things. it's not just limited to the u.s. so, chief among them, of course, is high inflation rates. just the higher cost of living. but also, it's a really tight labor market. workers feel like they have the upper hand, so they're making these demands. also, public support for unions has been steadily increasing. >> it's up, right? >> exactly. >> covid-19 in the sense of people rethinking their work/life balance and w

just yesterday mark zandi, who i think has been certainly in the pro soft landing camp, he tweeted out possibility of a government shutdown. so the reality is and some of my colleagues who are openly calling for a government shutdown right now, they're attempting to putt forward the narrative that it will have no impact on the economy, that no one will suffer. that's just not the case. when you're furloughing that number of workers, even if you end up paying them in retrospect, there is an impact in economic activity. >> you mean stuff that doesn't get bought that's not going to get bought later. >> and those are jobs that aren't created that would have been created. i cited the data from the 2018 shutdown, the 2013 shutdown showed exactly the same. there have been more than 20 of them that have happened since the 1970s, they have all had a negative impact to a varying degree on our economy. >> congressman, thank you for your time today. >> thank you. >> right now it's time for today's consumer statistic. 3.63%. that's where credit card losses currently stand. goldman sachs they are ra