martin feldstein is with harvard university.been involved in many meetings in protecting against a squishy thing called insider trading. the upper over the weekend seems to have faded away. where do you think the up or will go in the coming weeks. ? i think it is on this -- >> i think it is a construct of that they get leaked to the press like that, and it is in two ways anyt damages long before facts are in front of anyone, the reputations of people, some of whom may have done illegal things, some of whom probably have not. second, it damages the investigation itself, the willingness of people to cooperate is undermined by these types of weeks. i think they are negative in every respect. >> it diminishes trust. your colleague benjamin friedman has written an important book on this, "the moral consequences of economic growth." out of this crisis we are in search of a trust. insider trading allegations and the media frenzy about it, we cannot rebuild trust if we are spending our time worrying about leaks from grand juries, can we

we will speak with martin feldstein of harvard university. talk about fiscal policy, washington policy. he is riveted on inflation right now. you have seen a lot of disinflation and deflation in europe. we will have to rip up the script to say the least. bnp paribas is front and center this morning. we will talk about that. >> just amazing. bnp paribas all has to be about this "new york times" piece. >> it is not only that piece, "then "bloomberg news," financial times" and others. this will be an item off the meeting.e at the g7 when you see the foreign minister of france step in on banking issues, any given talk is front and center. what has changed in new york is bnp paribas is front and center in new york. ts go on.a tom keene, thank you very much indeed. >> we have another angle for you on travel. a new deal worth $1.7 billion for dufry. ufry's ceo joins us now. this is a heavily fragmented sector. this is a very big acquisition. are we going to see a rollup now? we going to see greater consolidation in your business? >> good morning. th

martin feldstein of harvard felt that mr. draghi will disappoint.e in the 7:00 hour in new york. >> we just had a guest on his said the exact same thing. he thinks expectations have built up so much that mr. draghi will end up disappointing. i'm sitting next to bill miller. he will be joining us. do watch "surveillance" coming up. >> very good. >> let's take a look at how european markets are trading ahead of the ecb decision. ,> head of the boe decision u.k. trading is lower, generally. we are pretty lackluster. we are pretty flat. spain is trading higher. the uk's trading lower. all eyes in trepidation waiting for the ecb decision. and, indeed, the bank of england a little bit earlier. some changing sentiment ahead of the european ecb decision. many people have been short, betting that the euro will fall. it is a tiny bit up against the dollar. if you are looking at a monthly basis, you can see how the value of the euro has eroded by basically close to 2% over the last 30 days as this expectation is that we will see a cut in the general benchmark

let me start with martin feldstein yesterday saying mario draghi will disappoint.we will be disappointed at 9:00 a.m.? >> it is not odd he would say that, his view is inflation is understated. he believes that about the u.s. and europe. he is assuming that the central bank in europe is feeling the same way. i do not. >> you disagree with feldstein? >> absolutely, we had a conversation recently and it comes down to the issue of whether or not to believe the data. >> john herman at mitsubishi, one of the best people i know with the granularity of the data. he made a seachange call yesterday. "we worry that expectations have anden lofty for 2014 possibly 2015. we cut our forecast to a dan 3.5%. - like 2.4% from the optimists got crushed. >> look what is happening in the bond market. i sat here january 6 and said the bond market was oversold. of course, the trading range moves down 50 basis points over the year. that is a reflection of the global macro situation, not micro markets and country issues like in europe. you can make a story about germany sometimes, not all