martin j. martin good to have you on the show the us national security chief diets on turkey's claims i'm just reading through his statement really pointing to the long held on the moss the between turkey and saudi arabia saying another operation may have taken place it is quite vague what that means what do you think he is implying here. it's difficult to know this stage but it is central to this entire issue of the relationship that saudi arabia and turkey has together sources of mine in in istanbul have been telling me for the last few days one of the reasons why we've had this sporadic rather illogical outburst of inconsistent statements from the turkish police sometimes some statements restudy even add up which don't even follow one another the reason for this is there was the turks tried to put together a deal for saudi for saudi arabia a way out for the saudis and what i'm hearing i mean in the last couple of days things one king summons top aides has been sent to ankara to talk to edward and we're hearing reports of a deal with would you vote five billion dollars whether that's five b. in those investments or some sort of grant to do whatever mr wants to do that we don't know but you know this has had a real effect on the ferocity of a lot of validity of the information that's being bandied about so you know it's i think is still very much early days but it's interesting the relationship now which the americans have with turrets which since yesterday has transformed so much better much more sustainable and viable once channels can be opened now between america and turkey which they couldn't before yeah what you're speaking about i suppose if that is verified that opens up a whole lot more questions doesn't it as best as i can make out martin turkey has been directly accused saudi arabia of involvement but over the past few days officials are being reported saying that there is solid audio video evidence that a murder has been committed if that evidence does exist therefore why do you think at this stage it isn't being shared or released. because a i think there's a deal being struck here i mean in the middle east you've got to understand that saudi arabia and turkey for the last few years of been an odds with one another turkey is an investment conference to be held later this month but donald trump is not yielding as of yet kill up and brings us more. if you thought that the disappearance of a saudi journalist in turkey would hurt ties between riyadh and washington wrong military and diplomatic ties are closer than ever and donald trump recently spoke up about why that is i don't like the concept of stopping an investment of one hundred ten billion dollars into the united states. because you don't think it to do they're

martin j. investigative journalist to talk to us as well now everyone martin thank you so much for joining us on the program everyone has said that it was killed in a vicious violent manner and he said a number of times that was preplanned how credible do you think that statement is given that he didn't put forth any concrete evidence at the same time. we have to be very careful don't we i mean much of this entire case rests on some of the more critical elements of evidence which we haven't seen we haven't heard so i think um and in one respect this plays against the saudis because that gives them the time and the confidence to carry on with this some ludicrous miscommunicate miscommunication campaign of the where even leading royals are contradicting one another but on the other hand that puts pressure on the turkish leaders of finally to live i mean today was not the bombshell that we expected to be we expected hard evidence of the three critical components i think where the body is which he raised on the audio recordings and even in the equipment like bone cutting devices you know that this is a this is what really the whole case hinges on and we're not seeing that at the moment i think what today was was quite a clever quite a master of the piece of geo political leverage i think you call it is right to say it was a political speech aimed at the saudis but i would go one step further i would say that was actually aimed at the saudi king to actually make it clear to the king that this debacle whereby the turks have got the crown prince the saudi crown prince exactly where they want him on his back foot can go on for a very long time in the and that is only going to create instability in terms of foreign investment which the saudis might be hoping to get a some point even though things will be very bad on that side but also there is this international idea which is being bandied about which anyone touched on which was an impartial investigation into the u.n. mentions and they might be interesting to see this thing we've had statements from france germany and britain the last few days saying what the saudis are saying is it's not credible i wonder whether the impartial best occasion international investigation maybe the u.n. level may be the next step in this case but what i'm seeing and what i'm reading with elegant speech is that he's very happy where he is now is prepared to drag. as long as possible he's holding his hand out for a deal with saudi arabia which is not getting him several analysts and well placed people who i know a closer to him of told me that that's what's really been taken the times that he's been asking the saudis through back channels to come closer he may well think that an international investigation which drugs out over many weeks a month some put possibly even years i mean look at the hariri investigation is going on now in europe he may well think that that is the way it's bringing the saudis closer into his fold to get what he wants from them now the last thing we've heard from the saudi officials is that this was an accident it happened because of a fistfight that escalated in the consulate and that's and that there are people being held responsible and heir to one did say today that he doesn't doubt the king sincerity but this at the same time he called it a political murder so where's the difference there. well i think he's given the the leverage to sue the mom had been summoned to actually still continue this idea that m.b.a.'s can be. given some distance i mean that is really what everyone's trying to do it's all you know you've got this international power. gamble at the moment between america saudi arabia and turkey each one wants a deal from the other one i think whatever woman saying was we can still work with this idea if you wish the man had been someone was actually not actually directly responsible for what happened but on my terms so that was another key message which i think will resonate through riyadh in the in the right now is the can we work with the with the turks on the bases that we take for granted as a diplomatic. comfort if you like saudi arabia that at least the crown prince was not part of it in my personal view is that doesn't really matter because whichever way you look at this it looks pretty bad against muhammad been somebody if he wasn't actually personally behind it if you didn't actually commission himself but he left it so you want to stop people only for example who is in the news as being the one who orchestrated the whole thing from skype from riyadh that doesn't really paint a very good picture for him or the country that is ruling at the moment because it makes it look as though he's not even in control of his own henchmen i think it's inconceivable to assume that a guy like tani could mastermind the whole thing from beginning to end and all the details of it without having the absolute support green light from his master sort of i'm from my own perspective i don't think we should humor that idea that this was an operation that went wrong and in fact it wasn't even to have been someone who was part of it i don't except on personally. my name is william and i'm here with jacqueline in the studio would you agree that in this particular case mr aired one was also sending a message to the rest of the international community and how do you think they all accept that. well i think that he's sensing a momentum and i think he realizes that if you look at the relationship between turkey and america and how about spam on on a sixpence just a couple of just a week or so ago and now relations are much better between everyone and trump he must be sensing the impossible position that don't trump is in now because from the very beginning it's been very clear trump's entire middle east campaign his entire anti iran gender edge agenda has been based on selling to the american public people who don't really understand the middle east a lot of blue collar workers that you know these people the middle east our allies the saudis we need them we need to work with them against the threats in inverted commas of iran that's going to be really hard now to tell to sell to to the media and to to trump support base you know must be many millions the numerous nor the trumpeters that millions of his own supporters start saying well we don't really understand the middle east but i want you back in the wrong people i mean we're talking about human rights and terrorism i mean these people who are who are in bed with us are apparently just kidnapping and dismembering people and shouldn't there be a human rights some problem there so i think he sensing everyone is sensing that trump is going to have to do something he cannot keep it cannot sustain this this ridiculous support i mean what's been buzzing around twitter last few days you must have seen it everybody is saying nobody in the whole world is buying what the saudis are putting out now except donald trump that's got to end i think the next few days and few hours you will see a different tone from donald trump you know it's this thing is bigger than him and he is already now suffering from a certain amount of groundswell in his own come in his own country from from media and also from congress you are asking themselves you know do we really need to be so close to be reading these people to be allies if they're going to behave like that so everyone is holding out he's trying to help don't trump the three of them really need to get together and work out how they. can actually diffuse this situation if they want to stay as all equal allies for the forseeable future but i don't see i don't see that happening i see i see the saudis just constantly digging themselves deeper and deeper into a hole and you know if rumors are to be believe which is being leaked by the figure of the conservative french newspaper that there is already talk within the house of saudi of even someone's brother and possibly take the throne to the crown prince position not immediately but at a certain point in the next couple of years it's easy because you know you could appear to sort of pursue saudi arabia you know it's failed i.p.o. for its own all the company is really affecting its own economy it has been salmon and his whole his whole rest on d'être was to modernize the country by twenty thirty they need a hundred billion dollars the irony of this whole story is the saudi arabia doesn't have a hundred billion dollars to spend on reform and making itself more attractive to long term international investment because it spent that money on american arms fighting a phony war against iran which doesn't really need to be doing so well i'm to go back full circle to what he said i think everyone understands he understands the whole geopolitics of the situation but i think it's also really important for people out there watching you may not completely understand relationship between turkey and saudi arabia these are all friendly means of best you know we can't call them full on enemies because they're not but you know the relationship between these two countries also plays a huge factor in what's going on right now you know everyone has a mission of making turkey a regional power with its own him germany you know it's a it's a key partner with qatar it's got very good relations with iran these are and it's also the friends of the muslim brotherhood these are all red flags for the saudis a reason why saudi arabia hates turkey for all these reasons together i'm being told that edwin's people have floated the idea to the saudis hey help us with this side. to help us develop our own region of germany and that was rejected by the saudis and that's where you've got this this delay this impasse of the moment because both the saudis and the turkish administration administration are looking now to see what some next move than the going to do anything until they hear the next word from trump because trump will determine that whether we take this this debacle up to the next level and we talk about international investigations on the u.n. level or it can be diffused and we can try and do our best to save the best of the worst situation and that may well mean have been some remains crown prince in a country which i would guess i would estimate as a geopolitical expert is drifting more and more away from merica more into the arms of russia martinjay investigative journalist thank you so much for joining us on the program and breaking down this story where if. they were going to continue our conversation with correspondent you have to try and go here in the studio so we've been going through what our everyone's comments were today but this is been a ongoing story since october the second that's almost three weeks ago now right so it's been unfolding for quite a long time and we've seen new breaking news and new information come out over and over again yes it's more than twenty days of details international reaction that constantly changes both on the other side of the atlantic and of course the things that we are hearing from saudi arabia and we've actually got a time line of the story to show you so let's have a look. so that's our breakdown of how this all has been unfolding over the past three weeks again we just about an hour ago had aired a one speaking in the turkish parliament breaking down the turkish investigation of t

martin j. he is in our beirut he is a freelance broadcast journalist martin bring us up to speed what's going on with the show the affair and how turkey is behind the scenes pulling a lot of strings and a lot more than that go ahead martin. well this is not what's being reported out there nearly not by western media you have a huge deal on the table between turkey and saudi arabia we have to remember that these are frenemies these are not very close allies in the region saudi arabia hates turkey for being friends and supporters and muslim brotherhood hates being close to qatar and iran and they can see it sees it in terms of germany as being a sort of a competitor if you like and so what turkey's been doing. capitalizing on this extraordinary show your third and he's trying to look at the of the things that we're hearing what i'm hearing from my sources in turkey is holding out for a better deal on qatar much more investment in turkey obviously from the saudis you know and more and perhaps some say tional there a sort of assistance if you like from the saudis in his bigger plan his bigger and visions in the region if you'd like to be a much more bigger regional player he's got quite huge huge ambitions about the role of

martin, national political correspondent for "the new york times" and jonathan green. j. martin, you've been reporting in the midwest. where do you see the momentum at the moment? >> two americas from that great american philosopher, john edwards, a senate map and a house map. i think the senate map is much more favorable to the republicans at this point than the house map. talking to folks yesterday, both democrats and republicans, they believe that right now the senate probably looks like anywhere from, you know, stay where it is to a plus one or two gop gain. looking at the house, there's a consensus that the democrats do pick up a majority. some on the right believe it will be a very narrow majority. the question is now is that 27, 35 seats in the house? but that's kind of where things seem right now. where this is different from past midterms, there does not seem to be an appreciable fall i don't have from either party. democrats won big in part in 2006 because the gop was depressed. in 2014, democrats could not get their folks rev ved up. president obama was not on the ballot. this time, guys, both parties seem fired up and ready to go. >> josh, it's interesting, i'll trumpet some of jonathan's reporting over the weekend. in the midwest, pennsylvania, washington, michigan, some of these states that donald trump flipped at the presidential level in 2016 is an area where there's a considerable amount of softness for the republicans. they're concerned about the gubernatorial races there and where this dovetails with your reporting, josh, these are the states that steve bannon and political gurus of donald trump thought they could flip for a generation and make them republican. >> right. there used to be a thinking in democratic politics that there was what was called a blue wall on the presidential electoral map. these upper midwestern and midwestern states tended to go to democrats. they had for many of the past elections. what the trump people were saying after trump's surprise victory in 2016 is if you look at the trump coalition, if you look at the blue collar, white midwestern voters that allowed trump to carry states like wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, ohio, the trump people thought -- bannon thought they had a hammer lock in the electoral college that would make it all but impossible for democrats to win back the presidency. i think jonathan's reporting shows not only is that area in jeopardy for republicans but it probably also bodes poorly for trump's re-election possibilities if the states that handed him the presidency in 2016 have turned in a different direction for republicans. >> let's talk -- >> i was going to say part of the challenge is that trump built up the expectation so much because his campaign rhetoric of 2016 was all promising. i'm going to single handedly bring back manufacturing to this region that's been hard hit. obviously, there's been some growth on that front but those states are obviously not going to be what they were half a century ago in terms of manufacturing. and so i think that has created an opening for democrats to say that they have fallen short. the other thing, guys, in a lot of these states, republicans have had power since 2010. so, democrats who are running can sort of run against the in party and point to the problems in state and lay them at the feet of the gop. that's certainly what's happening in michigan right now where it's easy to blame the opposition for everything that's gone wrong in the state because they've been in charge the last eight years. >> josh, less talk texas. ted cruz running against beto o'rourke, ted cruz has the advantage, 45 to 42%. tonight, president trump is going to campaign for ted cruz. this is interesting. last time we saw them on a campaign trail together, the messaging was a little different. so maybe just to remind people of what they said then in 2016. >> donald, you're a sniveling coward. leave heidi the hell alone. >> his father was with lee harvey oswald prior to oswald being shot. i mean the whole thing is ridiculous. >> the man cannot tell the truth and combines it with being a narcissist. >> lyin' ted. he lies. >> cruz has basically bended a knee and submitted to trump's authority here. in return, he's being rewarded with a trip that will help him, presumab presumably, gin up republican support. that's why most polls think cruz will pull this out despite an impressive candidacy from beto o'rourke. >> we always see past political rivals come together and endorse each other, john mccain and george w. bush. it always happens. but when you see the president accusing ted cruz's father of being somehow connected to the kennedy assassination, jonathan martin, that really will be interesting to watch them on stage tonight. >> here is the thing, john. there's like a sense that with trump it doesn't count. i say that from having talked to a lot of politicians. they just don't believe it's on the level. it's easier for these guys to make up with him because there's a wwf sensibility to it. if it were a more conventional politician, i think it would be harder for them to have sort of made up and moved on in the way that professional politicians do that. with trump there's a sense that he doesn't actually believe this stuff. that said, he did insult senator cruz's wife. you can't sort of explain that away to pro wrestling sensibility. that is what it is. so i think that's extraordinary, that they put that aside. from a raw political standpoint, these candidates see trump as a way to energize the party. they're for trump. it's not more complicated than that and certainly not in a place like texas. i'm a little surprised he's playing in houston j