i have to say, we look at some of the hawkish comments we have from raphael bostic and mary daly. let's take a couple of days off, it is thursday. tom: that is the key data point. we are in -- on tuesday. a bit of profit taking across these markets ahead of the cpi print. in terms of giving it a clearer direction. we did have those officials coming out, nonvoting members, but the view that you will get 5% or above and held above -- for longer. the significance of these markets, we continue to weigh up what is happening in china. a bit of a pause in terms of the reopening trade across equities. different for iron or. the ftse 100 down 0.4%. the boe chief changing his tone, with the team is seeing in terms of inflation hedging slightly lower from the chief economist at the boe. the cac 40 down 0.4%. in spain, losses of 21 points. let's see how things are playing out cross asset. the s&p failed to hold significantly above 3900. just above in terms of futures. mike wilson from morgan stanley suggesting there could be further downside. up to 20% downside for the s&p because of these re

raphael bostic, nor mary daly voted this year. for reducing the size of rate hikes will be boosted if the inflation data that we get on thursday shows consumer prices cooling down. sources telling us that china is considering a record closure of up to 560 million dollars for special local government bonds. special bonds are a key funding source, which economists expect will fuel growth close to 5% or higher. officials are said to be looking at widening the budget deficit target to 3% of gdp for 2023. bloomberg sources saying that bhp has struck a deal to sell australian coal the chinese firms, a sign of easing trade curbs between the two countries. bhp sold to shipments to china by steel group for late january loading. china slapped an informal ban on australian coal in 2020 as relations soured between the two. we've got the billionaire, of nichols a short squeeze planning a shift in his production. we've got bloomberg sources telling us this billionaire is targeting a a refinery that causes a large premium and is in talks with st

it's interesting, mary daly talking about the facility of a 25 basis point hike. bostic as well. the market is moving toward seeing the 25 basis point hike. if you look at three-month expectations, the fed rate is going up 50 basis points. over the coming three months. that's pricing in a 50 basis point hike in february than a 25 in february, then another in march. any of those outcomes would be further slowing in the fed's pace. than it comes to that, how do you price in a long pause above 5%? the market is almost certainly going to start betting immediately not on how long the pause is but how soon it ends and how rapidly the fed comes down. that is going to really open up potential -- a potential battle royale between the fed and markets. the markets are already declaring victory and doing the inverse of what they did a year ago. a year ago, markets were telling the fed you need to do more because inflation is not going to be transitory the way you think it is. they were pricing and significant rate hikes when the fed was not contemplating significant rate hikes. now the marke

can your world stay together if we get mary daly at 5.25% terminal rate?25% is manageable but i think is the journey. the price discovery and volatility came across different volatility. all of that had to do with the discovery of where the terminal rate is at and even if we go to 5.5%, i don't think it needs to be a tremendous shock to markets but it shakes up positioning. in the short term, we could see the dollar consolidate, maybe get back 1.5% for the next move over the next two quarters is a 5% move lower. we are in this environment where positioning and technicals will matter but we are moving into a momentum based regime change that will ultimately be bearish for the dollar. jonathan: what's the next move? >> we are still extremely bullish and there is a good upside for the euro if we can get back to $1.05 and we can use that to buy to a move to $1.10 and the other currencies like asia, those guys look appealing in this backdrop. i guess it would be a little bit of rotation on the back of a stronger euro which would probably support poland. jonatha

steve has more >> mary daly just on the wire saying the 25 and 50-base-point rise is in play. and that it's too soon to declare visibility torrie and stop hiking rates. some are questioning whether that's true raphael bostic telling me last week there's more work to do. tom barkin from richmond saying the inflation fight isn't over the minutes of the meeting that came out last week say no fed official is forecasting cuts in 2023 meanwhile, you have the ims services contracting the inflation rate running around 2.5%. look at how the job market reacted to all of this an economic weak necessary ahead, he said that act like we have a date with 5% or higher, almost no matter what happens here what is strange at this moment when things are so ambiguous, is for the fed to act as if their actions are so predictable the fed may have it right, but they could be making a mistake, such as last year, when they all decided the recession was transitory >> yes, yes. that quote is so good. it's odd to be in an environment we've never been in before, yet why is everybody talking about a number

dani: san francisco president mary daly at going bostic on rates above 5%.hat picture mixed with earnings is why mike wilson when the most vocal bears on wall street talked about why the consensus might not be bad enough. i know yesterday he wrote consensus again a bad perhaps could be -- a bad first half could be right directionally but wrong in terms of magnitude. he said the surprise might not -- the surprise might be how much lower stocks could trade if a recession arrives. let's bring in our guest for this half hour beata manthey. thanks so much for joining. what do you make of this? there has been pushed back that the consensus has been a bearish market so perhaps it won't be that bad but might listen here saying that actually consensus is wrong in that it's not bad enough. beata: good morning and makes for having me. i would agree with mike actually. i do share the same view that consensus earnings estimates at the moment are still too high. they are coming down so for europe, analysts expect flat eps growth but commodities where we see weaknesses sha

those two key fed officials we see the likelihood from bostick and mary daly saying do not count on us taking back the interest rate. the nasdaq manages to withstand that. tech companies on top. up .6% on the day. we had seen some weakness of the u.s. dollar versus the yuan. what was interesting as money moving into the chinese currency. just manage to inch out on the day even though we did hear the fed talk try to fight back. a little bit unchanged on the day in terms of the focus on the yuan, but it had been a story about outperformance. where we have seen outperformance is on bitcoin and crypto. we did fade on the end of the day when we saw the comments coming from the two fed participants, the worry of pulling back in terms of overall inflation pressure. bitcoin really did get its rally on all because of china. ed: china a big story when it came to individual names. alibaba leading the rally in the u.s. list of shares of tech stocks. the news being a central bank official in china saying basically the two-year clampdown from a regulatory perspective on tech is coming to an end. you

would consider slower rate hikes if the data confirmed the cooling scene in the last jobs report and mary daly said the case can be made for a half or quarter point increase >> jay powell will speak at the symposium in stockholm today the speech is scheduled for 1500 cet and comes on the heels of the jobs report. on thursday, we get latest reading on the inflation according to the fed watch tool, traders ares are pricing in a 2e rate at the next meeting >> we will hear from others at stockholm today. andrew bailey and the bank of japan governor and the bank of canada what an amazing day coming up if you are into that thing. >> i'm very excited for you. >> looking forward to the information. it is a one-off event in sweden. it is an event in honor of ingves today the outgoing governor. they organized this symposium. high level governors coming to speak there. of course, all market participants will watch out for one man today. jay powell the expectation is they can afford to start slowing down the pace of the rate hikes and going ahead with the 25 basis point hike at the next meeting on the bac

san francisco principal reserve chief mary daly telling "the wall street journal," quote, there's agreement among fed policymakers that inflation is more persistent than thought and that the biggest risk is that inflation expectations will drift up after inching down. that uncertainty and a possible recession triggered by perhaps an overaggressive fed has companied like goldman sachs reportedly about to lay off 3,200 employees sometime this week as it faces a crop in deal making and a tough -- a drop in deal making and a tough economic environment. up 1.6% right now, but no matter what those fears are, that does not mean investors have nowhere to go to pump up their portfolios. join toking me now in a fox business exclusive, blackrock cio of fixed item rick reider. rafael boss tick afternoon of the atlanta fed came out, and this was a little more pointed even, he specifically said rates will have to say high for a long time, well into 2024, and hen he followed that by saying it's fair to say that the fed is willing to overshoot. is that going to be a mistake? if. >> so i think there's somet

this week fed officials including mary daly, remember the dove?e openly wondered why are investors assuming the inflation night is over? she really can't believe that investors are lining up to get shocked once again by powell. again, this is the ultimate game of chicken. beyond the powell intrigue and the federal market, the market internals, you know, are sending some interesting messages here. walter deemer put out a pretty good piece last night, really intriguing. he announced that the market has generated what's known as a breakout, breakaway momentum. it's only the 25th time since 1945, and that would mean that we're in a new bull market. joining me now to discuss, yardeni research ed yardeni. ed, i saw a bunch of headlines go by yesterday. you've been on fire, my man, and apparently you're also saying we're in a new bull market, right? >> yeah. i've been saying for a while that i thought the s&p 500 bottomed on october 12th. i actually thought it bottomed back in june when it fell to 666, 3,666. that kind of reminded me of what happened in

he was also highly surveilled actually by the previous mayor, mary daly won before even got into office, because of his activism, it was part of the mayor daily machine, and then realized the flaws of that, and moved out of that again to challenge the daily win -- and so a lot of the ways in which he rose to power, the way he was or able to organize people around this idea, he was a populist, but when the talk a lot about hope in possibility. and change. in that, together, we all could create a mass swell of power to challenge all of the systems that have been working against us and all of the leaders that have stood in the way of equity and so when i think of president obama, and his rise, it very much parallels it is very much built on that infrastructure. this idea of black power, but also like equity across the board. but one of the things i feel like we saw that was different with president obama, is that a, but he was a little bit more green then mayor harold washington. like before he became, there he was you know, an illinois in the state congress, and then was a representative

when we have talked to mary daly of the fed at bloomberg, she said when it comes to unemployment claims, that is the last place the fed is looking to. it technically is a lagging indicator. we are beginning to see this as a theme, especially in the technology sector. this could begin to spread out and other corners of the market. kathleen: we shall see. bloomberg technology anchor ed ludlow, and equities report adjustment and. let's get to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: that a says it is reinstating former president donald trump's facebook and instagram accounts. trump was banned from the platforms after the company deemed some of his posts encouraged supporters to invade the u.s. capitol in january 2021. they say they don't want to get in the way of open debate, and trump will face tougher penalties for repeat offenses. the u.s. has confirmed it is joining germany in ascending tanks to help ukraine rappel russian forces in the east. president biden says the deliveries will take time, though he did not say how much. washington's decision follows a trend of allies gi

but this number is bad mary daly did this, but fisher did that have some conviction before you buy warner brothers discovery. >> well, as you point out, now you're just buying it on momentum -- that stock has gained a quarter of its market value in the last six trading days. >> was the only thing exciting about that championship last night that there was -- that bob iger was there >> bob iger was there. looking well as always >> hands on. four days a week >> yesterday reports mr. iger sent out a memo saying we expect to see you at disney if you're here four days a week in person because we're a collaborative company and a creative company and that requires collaboration. >> i agree with that personally, as you know. i'm not one of those who believes we're doing well by being home or working remotely there are a great many of employees out there who would disagree with that statement, jim, and you know that and they still have a lot of weightin the marketplace. mr. iger is telling them, hey, we expect you to be in four days a week because there's tremendous value there, being together with